MSTI.com’s 2007 in Review: Center Field
October 14, 2007 at 10:40 am | Posted in Juan Pierre sucks, season in review | 36 CommentsTime for the outfield! We’re going a little bit out of order on this one and starting right in the middle, and Vin will be back to recap the corners this week.
So I get to do center field? Sweet! I almost don’t know where to start on this one, so strap in – this one might get long, kids. Let’s preface this by saying that from absolutely everything I’ve heard, Juan Pierre is a fantastic human being and an exceptional teammate. He’s the first one there in the morning, and the last one to leave – no one outworks him. He kisses babies and rainbows and then the babies love rainbows and then the sun smiles and drops sugar cubes on everyone, and the sugar cubes turn into kittens who then frolic in dandelions. Juan Pierre is Mother Teresa reincarnate.
Juan Pierre (D-)
(.293/.331/.353 0hr 41rbi 64sb 15cs)
A D-? Oh, that’s right. We’re not paying him to be goddamn Bono. We’re paying him to do one thing: play baseball. And despite all of his superb human attributes, there’s one thing he’s really not all that good at: playing baseball.
Let me count the ways…
Juan Pierre can’t hit. Well, let me rephrase that. He can get hits. He finished just short of 200 hits (196) and just short of .300 (.293). Here’s the problem with that, folks. Getting a lot of hits just isn’t as impressive when you step to the plate 729 times, 3rd in the NL. Hitting .293 is all well and good, except it illustrates the fundamental problem with batting average: it doesn’t tell you just how empty that .293 is.
What’s really important for a player like Juan Pierre, above all else, is on-base percentage. You don’t expect or require a lot of power from your top of the order guys, and that’s fine (though he is of course, far below average at that too.) What you need is for him to just get on base. He’s good at one thing, and that’s running. It’s really really hard to run around the bases and cause havoc from the dugout.
It’s not really important how he gets on base – having a mixture of walks and hits would be the best, but honestly I don’t care. Just that he gets on. Basically his goal at the plate should be, “get on base through any means possible. Don’t make outs.” 
Juan Pierre, 2007 – 519 outs made, 3rd in NL
Crap. Well, it’s not like we should have seen that coming.
Juan Pierre, 2006 – 532 outs made, 1st in NL
Blerg. My mind grapes hurt. Seriously, by just about every meaningful statistical measure you can think of, Juan Pierre is a terrible offensive player:
EQA: .249 (league average is .260), 21st among MLB CF
OPS+: 76 (league average is 100)
VORP: 16.2 – just behind two Rockies CF’s, Taveras and Spilborghs
And just to throw in a new super-fancy stat that I just now learned:
MLV (basically, how many extra runs over the course of a season a player would add if you had a lineup of completely league-average players. For example, Curtis Granderson was the best MLB CF, adding 40.2 runs over average.) Pierre: -13.5. We would have been better off if he never showed up to the park; this ranks JP 65th of 70 MLB CF’s this season, by the way.
Just because I can’t overstate this enough – his OBP was .331. The National League’s average OBP was .334. He is paid to get on base, he is paid a lot of money to get on base. This is what we needed him to do more than just about anything. And he is worse than your average player. And we gave him 5 years and $44 million for the pleasure.
Juan Pierre can’t field. Fielding stats are notoriously wonky and hard to evaluate. You can’t really read a fielding stat and say “this player is good or bad” the way you can with hitting stats. But what you can do with them is compare players to other guys at the same position and at least get an idea of who’s showing up. In 2007, there were 18 MLB CF’s with enough at-bats to qualify for the batting title (a good way of sorting everyday players from part timers).
18. Remember that.
Juan Pierre, 2007 fielding stats:
Fielding %: 15th
Range factor: 17th, next to goddamn last
Zone rating: 11th
Great. So now not only can’t he hit, he’s mediocre to abysmal at fielding, too. Worse, he’s sort of getting off easy here, because these stats measure how well he fields his position, but it doesn’t take into account throwing arm. In fact, I don’t know of any stat that does, which is good news for Mr. Pierre, because this is by far his worst attribute. I can’t tell you how many singles got turned into doubles because absolutely no one is afraid of his arm – or the fact that guys would tag up from 1st base on sacrifice flies. Seriously, that doesn’t happen. Except to him. You don’t need me to tell you this; if you watched any Dodger games this year you’d know that he can barely outthrow Steven Hawking right now. It’s gotten to the point where just one year into his five year deal, there’s already rumors of him moving to LF to hide the arm a bit.
Juan Pierre is the epitome of bad timing. Okay, this one I can’t kill JP on. He got offered an absurdly rich deal, and he took it, same as the rest of us would. This is squarely pointed at Ned Colletti, and while it may belong more in his review later, I’m writing it now anyway – we did not need to sign Juan Pierre to a 5 year deal last year! If you remember, Kenny Lofton was the Blue’s main CF in 2006, and while he wasn’t superb, he did pretty well – outperforming Pierre in most important categories, anyway. So when Lofton’s one year deal ended, the Dodgers had 3 choices to man CF:
1) sign one of the only two wildly overpriced mediocre CFs on
the market last year, JP or Gary Matthews, Jr., to longterm deals out of desperation.
2) resign Lofton or someone similar to a one year deal; see if Matt Kemp could take the job by year’s end
3) resign Lofton or someone similar to a one year deal; wait for 2007-08 free agency class which includes a rich crop of CFs – Torii Hunter, Andruw Jones, Aaron Rowand, Ichiro (at the time, he was coming up on free agency), Mike Cameron
#2 is the route I’d have gone, and considering how Kemp turned out, we might well have been set there cheaply for years to come. #3′s very reasonable too and shows some nice foresight.
Oh, but of course.. we got the absolute worst option of the three, and we’re paying for it for years to come. Superb.
And might I add, Juan Pierre turned 30 this past August, which means his Opening Day ages for the remaining 4 years on his deal will be 30-31-32-33. Juan Pierre has exactly one above-average attribute, and it just so happens to be almost universally the first thing that goes downhill when a player hits 30: speed. What happens when he loses a step and all of a sudden he’s not beating out as many infield hits or stealing as many bases? We’re just on the tip of the iceberg here, people.
- Mike Scioscia’s tragic illness 
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Yep, he sucks :(
But how dare you make fun of Steven Hawking’s arm. Of course he can out-throw Juan Pierre!
Comment by garrett— October 14, 2007 #
What was Jason Repko, a CF?
Comment by James— October 14, 2007 #
Repko played some CF, yes. He was really a backup at all 3 spots, but of course he didn’t touch the field at all in 2007 due to injury.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— October 14, 2007 #
You think we’ll see him next year?
Comment by James— October 14, 2007 #
Caption for the first photo of Pierre:
“Look Ma, I’m dancin’!”
Comment by shmolnick— October 15, 2007 #
“He kisses babies and rainbows and then the babies love rainbows and then the sun smiles and drops sugar cubes on everyone, and the sugar cubes turn into kittens who then frolic in dandelions.”
Best single sentence I’ve read on this blog yet. Absolutely brilliant!
Comment by shmolnick— October 15, 2007 #
Oh come on, you’re far too tough on poor Smalls. A batting average in the 290′s coupled with 60+ stolen bases surely deserves a poor man’s C. Surely the kittens and rainbows and sugar cubes are worth a lousy C for the guy, huh? Colletti gets a D (for desperate) for this signing, but I think in a better lineup, Pierre won’t seem as awful. Remember, we also had Nomah and Gonzo as key pieces for most of the season; Pierre’s shortcomings were magnified.
Comment by shmolnick— October 15, 2007 #
Shmol, you might be right that more of the blame rests on Colletti. And MAYBE a D- was a little harsh. But he’s just killing us in so many areas: he can’t get on base, he can’t field, and he’s weighing us down both by his contract and our inability to upgrade at a vital position on the field.
Glad you liked the kittens, though :D
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— October 15, 2007 #
Very much enjoying this series, by the way. Good job!
Comment by Rob McMillin— October 15, 2007 #
well, they did it. the Rockies have made the World Series. I’m happy for them.
Comment by James— October 16, 2007 #
I admit I just glanced through your analysis … seemed to repeat most of what you’ve been saying during the season and I don’t do “I told you so” very well. I thought the most important thing a leadoff hitter did was score runs … no matter how. I can’t seem to find that stat anywhere. Could it be that JP does something well besides kiss babies?
Comment by Dave— October 16, 2007 #
Hi Dave, thanks for posting.
Pierre finished 19th in the NL in runs, which is nice, I guess. But runs aren’t really a great way to evaluate a player’s performance. First of all, he got to the plate more than just about every other player in the league (3rd most), so had a lot more opportunities than most guys. Also, runs are so dependent on the hitters behind you driving you in. Part of the reason Jimmy Rollins led the league in runs is because he had a really good year – but a lot of it is because he had Utley and Howard hitting behind him. So I don’t see runs being a really valuable way to see how well a player did.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— October 16, 2007 #
Just like your Saenz comments, here’s a guy (JP) that we really want to like, but his production is just not there. Moving him to left field would hide some of his defensive deficiencies, but we don’t really have a true center fielder. If not saddled with JP’s ridiculous contract, I could be extremely happy with an outfield of Ethier, Kemp, Repko, Young, and a true center fielder such as Jones, Hunter, or Rowand. All three of them have their warts, too. Obtaining any of them is at the expense of playing time of Ethier/Kemp, as long as we have JP’s albatross contract.
Hey, what’s up with the BBWC site?
Comment by SamAdams— October 17, 2007 #
I dunno Sam, I can’t even log into it. Seems like the whole thing is busted again.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— October 17, 2007 #
I concur on the BBWC outage. Nothing there, just a generic page from a hosting company.
Comment by shmolnick— October 17, 2007 #
SamAdams….MSTI….Shmol….well, that’s some of the gang.
I wondered where everybody went.
Wha happen to our board???!!!!!!!!
Comment by CHJ— October 17, 2007 #
Hey, we’ve got good stuff here on msti’s board. Thanks!
Comment by SamAdams— October 17, 2007 #
Thanks Sam! I’m glad people have come over here while the BBWC is down.
Speaking of which, anyone know how to get in touch with Richard and see what’s up?
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— October 17, 2007 #
I tried yellin’ down the holler but he didn’t hear me. With the BBWC down right now, all I can do is waddle around the office mumbling Furcal, Pierre, Kemp, Hunter, Loney, Kent, Martin, LaRoche. My wife thinks I’m crazier than normal.
Comment by CHJ— October 17, 2007 #
Hunter! I’m anti-Hunter AND anti-ARod. Expect a post on that soon.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— October 17, 2007 #
Come on MSTI. Give leadership a chance. It’s all about doing everything possible to make Matt Kemp the best he can be.
Comment by CHJ— October 17, 2007 #
Hey guys, a quick note on the BBWC: Richard has been trying to upgrade the server, but there happened to be some complications and, for it, all his sites went down. His host is working on it and he’s hoping it should be back up in the next day or so.
Comment by Vin Scully— October 17, 2007 #
The next day or so!!! Can we survive that long?
He MSTI, anti-ARod? Can’t wait to hear your reasoning on that one, as we all know that ARod is a perfect fit for the Dodgers in every possible way. ;)
I guess this is now filling in for BBWC. We need our Dodger board fix!
Comment by shmolnick— October 17, 2007 #
Thanks for the update Matt. Like Shmol was saying, I gotta get my fix.
And Shmol, I can understand MSTI’s thinking. ARod at $30 mill is probably a perfect fit, but with Boras working behind the scenes, I get worried that numbers like $400 million over 12 years are going to be the end result.
I look at this way. Every time you hear numbers thrown around on a potential contract, the end result is always higher than anything you’ve heard. If that happens here, ARod might get $1 billion for 23 years.
I’ve said all along, I’d offer 8 years, $256 million, so he beats the last contract and that would be the end of the negotiation. Take it or leave it. And yes, I realize Boras doesn’t work that way, so I realize I’d probably not get ARod. (where’s the sad smiley)
Comment by CHJ— October 17, 2007 #
Hey Jay, you’re writing my article before I can! :D
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— October 17, 2007 #
Great minds think a like. Or in this case, mentally deranged minds think alike.
Hey! Where did you get a smiley? Do only the important people around here get smileys?
Matt, give me a smiley! I want oooonnnnnee!
Comment by CHJ— October 17, 2007 #
And to attempt to steal more of MSTI’s thunder, another problem with ARod is the timeframe.
Let’s say you are going all-in on ARod. You know how Boras works, on his timeframe, not anyone else’s. He’s going to wait as long as possible to try to sweat out an offer from the Yankees and get as many teams as possible involved. ARod will sign a contract when Boras is good and ready.
So, say you’ve gone all-in like I said and then it hits mid-January, and Steinbrenner has a lucid day and demands Cashman give Boras the keys to the kingdom. ARod re-signs with the Yankees for 47 years and $2.3 billion.
Then, you turn around and Hunter has already signed with the Rangers because we couldn’t make an offer. Lowell has signed with the Phillies. Cabrera has been traded to the Diamondbacks and Snell has been traded to the Rockies.
We end up not making a single move.
.
.
.
Wait a minute. That might be a good thing. Hmmmm. I’ll have to think on this one a while.
Comment by CHJ— October 17, 2007 #
Gurnick wrote something to the effect that signing ARod would increase ticket prices by $10. I’m not sure that’s an accurate figure, since surely ARod brings in some revenue in terms of increased ticket sales, concessions/souvenirs, radio/tv, etc.
Moot point, anyway. ARod will sign an extension with the Yankees with the help of the $21.3 Texas StRanger moaney.
Comment by SamAdams— October 17, 2007 #
Well, I happened to be listening to WFAN on the radio in my car earlier this evening (I live in CT) and they were playing a recording of the Yankees’ Cashman responding to a question about ARod. He said (this is as close as I can remember to an exact quote) “This is definitive. We will not participate in the free agent process with ARod.” Just thought I’d throw that in.
Also, if we don’t sign ANYONE in the offseason, I will consider that a failed offseason and will be clamoring for Ned Colletti’s head on a pike. The Dodgers will NOT make the post-season without the addition of some fresh offense.
Comment by shmolnick— October 17, 2007 #
[...] Feel free to read them all, but the one on JP (Juan Pierre) is sickening. [...]
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Comment by ujxbesqrgh— July 1, 2009 #
[...] the league at just a 77 OPS+, while having a negative 3.1 UZR/150 rating in CF with his noodle arm. As I said at the time in our 2007 season reviews: So I get to do center field? Sweet! I almost don’t know where to start on this one, so strap in [...]
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