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Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness

By Mike Scioscia's tragic illness | June 17, 2008 at 8:04 AM | In | 8 Comments

With the season headed downhill and the trading deadline only six weeks away, it's only natural that other teams would start to wonder if the Dodgers are going to be buyers or sellers. Personally, I think it's too early to make that determination, but I can't deny that there's not a whole lot of time left to figure out if this team is ever going to get it going this year.

In that spirit, I've come across two separate trade ideas involving the Dodgers, one for each New York team. I hesitate to call these "rumors" because it seems that each of these articles is just the author speculating, but here's the fun part. One proposal is from a "mainstream media" source, and the other is from a fan blogsite much like this one. One proposal is reasonable and well-thought out... and the other one is written by the New York Post. Point: blogs.

Let's start with the crazy one!

But the Mets should see which teams that need a big-time center fielder and/or run producer such as the White Sox, Cubs, Cardinals and Dodgers, and maybe even the Yanks and Red Sox, would give up for Carlos Beltran. With the Dodgers, the Mets might need to take back a Juan Pierre or Andruw Jones to balance contracts/center fielders, but if that allowed the Mets to get the Dodgers to consider building a package around James Loney, Matt Kemp and/or Chad Billingsley, they should consider it.

This is a good one already. I particularly like the part where if the Dodgers build an offer around Loney, Kemp, and/or Billingsley, the Mets should consider it. Hey, there's no question that Beltran is miles better than either Jones or Pierre, but after the rest of his $18.5 million for 2008, he makes that again for the next 3 years - $55.5 million remaining, or $11.5 more than the entire value of Pierre's contract. Beltran is, of course, a very good player, but at 31 he might already be in decline - his slugging % is down for the third year in a row, as are his homers (after 41 in 2006 and 33 last year, he's got only 8 this year). Also to keep in mind: he had surgery on each of his knees this past offseason. But ignore that, the Dodgers should definitely give up one of the top young power hitters in baseball, a good young first baseman, and a young power pitcher who is ostensibly already the ace of our staff for a sore-kneed veteran who makes about 50 times what they do combined.

Wait, scratch that: this proposal might be insane, but it's exactly the sort of thing a desperate GM on the hot seat might do to save his skin. Man, I hope Ned Colletti doesn't read the New York Post.

Onto something much more palatable, Yankees blog Was Watching wonders if the Yankees might have interest in Derek Lowe:

If Chien-Ming Wang’s injury does turn out to be season-ending, I wonder if the Yankees will try and make a run at picking up Derek Lowe in a trade?

Lowe will be a free agent at the end of the season - so, there’s some incentive for the Dodgers to shop him. Plus, the Dodgers are 31-38 right now and appear to be going nowhere this year.

Lowe is durable - he never misses a start, and, if I recall correctly, he’s never been on the disabled list. He’s played in Boston and L.A. - so, he’s not going to melt in New York with all the media coverage here.

Now this, I can get behind. I think Lowe's been incredibly underrated in his time in LA, but he just turned 35 and as a Scott Boras client, is likely to demand a multiyear deal for big dollars - exactly the kind of contract for an older player the Dodgers shouldn't be handing out right now. If the Dodgers decide to be sellers, he's exactly the kind of player who should be moved and would probably have good value for a contender, based on his track record.

What would it take to get Lowe from the Dodgers? Well, hopefully Joe Torre is high on Ian Kennedy. If so, that would be a great starting point for any discussion. Maybe Cashman can even play up to “Kennedy was big at U.S.C.” angle on this one? If L.A. wants another starter, how about throwing in Kei Igawa? I doubt that Torre wants him. But, hey, it doesn’t hurt to ask. Shoot, throw in La Troy Hawkins while you’re at it.

But, in addition to Kennedy, the Dodgers are going to want someone else as well. Torre would probably love to get Robinson Cano - with Jeff Kent being 40-years old and at the end of the line. However, there’s no way that Cashman would trade Kennedy and Cano for three months of Lowe.

First of all - no, no, noto Kei Igawa. I've seen him pitch a few times, and he's just not an MLB-quality pitcher. $12 million over the next three years to a 29-year-old guy with a 6.75 career ERA? No thanks. Ian Kennedy, however, is another story. He struggled mightly in 8 starts in the Bronx this year, but he's only 23 and has been dominant in the minors (13-3, 1.77 ERA career). Besides being a local boy, he was a 1st round pick in 2006 - 15 picks behind Clayton Kershaw. He was terrible this year for the Yankees (7.41 ERA), but it'd hardly be the first time that a young pitcher was rushed before he was ready.

As for Cano, I'd do him for Lowe straight up - his unbelievably lousy 2008 aside. This kid can hit, but as the Yankee blog stated, it's unlikely he's getting dealt.

If the Dodgers want a second baseman for the future, maybe they would have an interest in Kevin Russo? Perhaps New York could also sweeten the pot by “throwing in” a pitching prospect like George Kontos?

I've never heard of either of these guys, but neither of them made Baseball Prospectus' list of Top 11 Yankees prospects (plus 4 "just missed") from this past offseason. They're both 23, and in AA, and while their 2008 stats look okay (Russo: .303/.362/.439, Kontos: 3.39 ERA/1.26 WHIP), neither of them really thrill me all that much.

How is this for a deal? Ian Kennedy, George Kontos, Kevin Russo and either Kei Igawa or La Troy Hawkins for Derek Lowe. Personally, I think that’s a fair offer - there’s no way that L.A. would see that as an insult. And, if Wang is done for the season, it’s a trade that the Yankees can afford to make - in terms of what they’re giving up and what’s left in their system.

That is indeed a fair offer. For three months of Derek Lowe, we would get one plus pitching prospect who's close to being MLB-ready, and two young AA players who seem to be producing, but who I admittedly know nothing else about. I can't say whether or not I would take it without knowing more about Kontos and Russo, but I would definitely be interested in Ian Kennedy. I wouldn't take back Hawkins or Igawa, though - the Yankees aren't in the business of salary dumps, and I would think that if they really want a reliable veteran starter like Lowe, refusing to take back the dreck of those two probably isn't a deal-breaker.

The real question, though, is whether the Dodgers ought to insist on a young hitter rather than a pitcher as the centerpiece of a deal. Clearly, pitching isn't the problem - offense is, so it may not be smart to spend a valuable trade chip like Lowe - should we choose to go in that direction - on not getting a hitter.

- Mike Scioscia's tragic illness

- Mike Scioscia's tragic illness

Discussion

8 Comments on "Start Spreading the News..."

Posted by kensai, June 17, 2008 11:46 AM

You really like Ian Kennedy that much? In most every report i've seen, his ceiling is as a #3 starter, but he'll most likely end up at the back of somebody's rotation.

Though I guess when they decide this season is lost, that's not a bad exchange for a rental. And I agree that I don't think those prospects or LaTroy Hawkins really mean anything. Basically Derek Lowe for Ian Kennedy.

Posted by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness, June 17, 2008 3:28 PM

Well I don't think Kennedy is an ace, but he was a first round pick and he really did dominate in his time in the minors. If a #3 is all he is, that's fine by me because we're all hoping we'll already have a #1 and 2 for a while in Billingsley and Kershaw. If all it costs us is 8-9 starts from Lowe, I'd be happy with that return. I'm just not sure whether we ought to insist upon getting a bat back, rather than a young pitcher.

Posted by grabarkewitz, June 17, 2008 3:42 PM

Given the present state of both teams, I would hope that if Colletti is going to move Lowe, he needs to get the best deal possible. That would have to include Robinson Cano. Mind you, we would have to give something more than Lowe to get both Kennedy and Cano. It wouldn't break my heart if we offered them DeJesus or one of our young catchers (May or Santana, with May being the player I would prefer to move, as I think Santana has the higher upside).

Now, if we do acquire Cano, someone will have to break the news to Kent that is shortly to be moved. Other ramifications would be the DeWitt/LaRoche thing. Second base was supposed to be the next destination of one of these guys, with Cano, that option is gone.

Posted by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness, June 17, 2008 3:45 PM

I've become less and less convinced about the future of Blake DeWitt. I think our expecations were tempered greatly by the fact that he came from so far down, and that we expected Hu-like offense out of him. So obviously what he did blew that out of the water. But I think we need to start looking at him more realistically; and is he going to provide enough offense from 3B long term? I'm not sure.

Posted by Dusto, June 17, 2008 7:09 PM

I'd be willing to throw Dewitt in woth Lowe to get Cano.

Posted by kensai, June 17, 2008 9:58 PM

Yeah, it shouldn't be any surprise that DeWitt has come back down to Earth. A guy with an OPS of less than .800 in the minors isn't going to do it in the majors. Assuming he can stay healthy, LaRoche is obviously the 3rd baseman of the future.
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If Cano is acquired, DeWitt is expendable, but I don't see why the Yankees would be interested. I'm assuming they're not stupid, and besides, it's more likely that we will be the team getting shafted since Colletti is an idiot.
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I would love to get Cano, but I don't get why the Yankees would just throw him in with Kennedy to get Lowe and DeWitt. Even if the Dodgers also add May, it doesn't make too much sense.

Posted by grabarkewitz, June 18, 2008 3:32 PM

Mike, keep in mind, DeWitt is still a rookie and very rarely do rookies keep it up for a full year. I would not be surprised if, with a little rest, he finishes strong. He does enough things right at the plate, like Loney, to be a solid, above average offensive player. Yes, he is scuffling, which is a team-wide malady, but I see more promise in him putting up good numbers than .167 or any other veteran on this team.

Just from watching his swing over the past couple weeks, he fell into the same trap that caught Loney, trying to be something he isn't - a pull, power hitter. Loney, just recently, went back to what got him to the show - hitting the ball from foul pole to foul pole and I expect that DeWitt will return to the same thing, shortly. Now, if Matt Kemp will just relax and let the game come to him, we could have the potential to get hot, again.

Posted by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness, June 18, 2008 4:18 PM

Oddly enough, Torgy, the post I'm writing right now is about DeWitt.