Comments on: No. http://mikesciosciastragicillness.com/2008/07/10/no/713/ Los Angeles Dodgers baseball blog Thu, 24 May 2012 15:37:26 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.2 By: MSTI.com’s 2008 In Review: Center Field « Mike Scioscia’s tragic illness http://mikesciosciastragicillness.com/2008/07/10/no/713/#comment-3966 MSTI.com’s 2008 In Review: Center Field « Mike Scioscia’s tragic illness Tue, 04 Nov 2008 03:04:00 +0000 http://msti.wordpress.com/?p=713#comment-3966 [...] think Matt Kemp is going to be a huge star (I had to defend him against claims of being overrated here in July). A 23-year-old who was a slightly above-average hitter, showed excellent speed in stealing 35 [...] [...] think Matt Kemp is going to be a huge star (I had to defend him against claims of being overrated here in July). A 23-year-old who was a slightly above-average hitter, showed excellent speed in stealing 35 [...]

]]> By: Fire Ned Colletti Now http://mikesciosciastragicillness.com/2008/07/10/no/713/#comment-3965 Fire Ned Colletti Now Sat, 12 Jul 2008 09:50:31 +0000 http://msti.wordpress.com/?p=713#comment-3965 bablue-David Eckstein has a much better approach than Matt Kemp does, but Eckstein is still an inferior hitter. Juan Pierre probably has a better approach as well, but I don't see how he's any good. - My point is, I don't see how Kemp's approach detracts from the fact that he is an average hitter. If his approach was better, he would be a well above average hitter. Basically, his current approach prevents him from becoming the player he could be. However, it doesn't prevent him from being almost exactly league average right now. If he gets additional singles, doubles and triples because of his speed, that's part of his game, so it goes to his value at the plate. - It's like saying that Juan Pierre would never be a major leaguer without his speed. It's probably true, but he does have speed, so what's the point in bringing it up? bablue-David Eckstein has a much better approach than Matt Kemp does, but Eckstein is still an inferior hitter. Juan Pierre probably has a better approach as well, but I don’t see how he’s any good.
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My point is, I don’t see how Kemp’s approach detracts from the fact that he is an average hitter. If his approach was better, he would be a well above average hitter. Basically, his current approach prevents him from becoming the player he could be. However, it doesn’t prevent him from being almost exactly league average right now. If he gets additional singles, doubles and triples because of his speed, that’s part of his game, so it goes to his value at the plate.
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It’s like saying that Juan Pierre would never be a major leaguer without his speed. It’s probably true, but he does have speed, so what’s the point in bringing it up?

]]> By: misterjonez http://mikesciosciastragicillness.com/2008/07/10/no/713/#comment-3964 misterjonez Sat, 12 Jul 2008 05:27:54 +0000 http://msti.wordpress.com/?p=713#comment-3964 Seems like this conversation has uncovered some factors which need to be discussed separately, these being how speed influences a player's offensive output, and how effective a player is at the plate. Kemp is obviously possessing serious physical tools, and he's got gobs of potential to become an All-Star. But the argument that he's not a great 'hitter' is actually valid, if mis-framed. Take away his speed, and he actually DOESN'T make all that much happen at the plate. That doesn't diminish his overall offensive effectiveness, but it absoLUTEly alters the way you have to project his growth arc going forward. Depending on all of his offensive factors to improve simultaneously would obviously be erroneous, at least at this point. He's unlikely to become faster as he ages, so we've got to isolate that aspect of his game, and project the rest of his offensive skillset in isolation. Then re-introduce the speed after we've projected his growth *at the plate.* I'm no real stat-head, and I'm fairly certain there are stats out there which express what I've just described, but I'm unfamiliar with them :( Bottom-line: Kemp does possess the profile to improve dramatically, but he's also the type of player who gets held up by leaning on his physical tools too much. I've never been a member of the Kemp Klub, but I do think he's got a legit shot at being a perennial All-Star if he keeps learning and improving his approach at the plate. I just think that he's got some real obstacles in his way, the majority of which are self-imposed, perhaps unconsciously. Seems like this conversation has uncovered some factors which need to be discussed separately, these being how speed influences a player’s offensive output, and how effective a player is at the plate.

Kemp is obviously possessing serious physical tools, and he’s got gobs of potential to become an All-Star. But the argument that he’s not a great ‘hitter’ is actually valid, if mis-framed. Take away his speed, and he actually DOESN’T make all that much happen at the plate.

That doesn’t diminish his overall offensive effectiveness, but it absoLUTEly alters the way you have to project his growth arc going forward. Depending on all of his offensive factors to improve simultaneously would obviously be erroneous, at least at this point. He’s unlikely to become faster as he ages, so we’ve got to isolate that aspect of his game, and project the rest of his offensive skillset in isolation. Then re-introduce the speed after we’ve projected his growth *at the plate.*

I’m no real stat-head, and I’m fairly certain there are stats out there which express what I’ve just described, but I’m unfamiliar with them :(

Bottom-line: Kemp does possess the profile to improve dramatically, but he’s also the type of player who gets held up by leaning on his physical tools too much. I’ve never been a member of the Kemp Klub, but I do think he’s got a legit shot at being a perennial All-Star if he keeps learning and improving his approach at the plate. I just think that he’s got some real obstacles in his way, the majority of which are self-imposed, perhaps unconsciously.

]]> By: Mike Scioscia's tragic illness http://mikesciosciastragicillness.com/2008/07/10/no/713/#comment-3963 Mike Scioscia's tragic illness Sat, 12 Jul 2008 02:42:48 +0000 http://msti.wordpress.com/?p=713#comment-3963 bablue, I still say he IS an average hitter. I know you said that his 100 OPS+ doesn't count because he beats out infield hits, but those are still hits. (And for all the crap that we give Juan Pierre, imagine if we didn't respect his infield hits? He'd be hitting .210.) He's an average MLB hitter right now. Considering his inexperience, that's pretty impressive. bablue, I still say he IS an average hitter. I know you said that his 100 OPS+ doesn’t count because he beats out infield hits, but those are still hits. (And for all the crap that we give Juan Pierre, imagine if we didn’t respect his infield hits? He’d be hitting .210.)

He’s an average MLB hitter right now. Considering his inexperience, that’s pretty impressive.

]]> By: bablue http://mikesciosciastragicillness.com/2008/07/10/no/713/#comment-3962 bablue Sat, 12 Jul 2008 02:32:17 +0000 http://msti.wordpress.com/?p=713#comment-3962 Fire Ned Colleti Now, No, its not pointless. MSTI said that Kemp was an average hitter, which he's not. Its actually his biggest weakness, he's all projection but doesn't have the approach yet. Once he can learn not to swing at so much crap, get his pitch, and drive the ball more, thats when he'll become a superstar. If we believe in Matt Kemp, then we should believe he'll get much better with the bat because thats where he needs to improve. Fire Ned Colleti Now,

No, its not pointless. MSTI said that Kemp was an average hitter, which he’s not. Its actually his biggest weakness, he’s all projection but doesn’t have the approach yet. Once he can learn not to swing at so much crap, get his pitch, and drive the ball more, thats when he’ll become a superstar. If we believe in Matt Kemp, then we should believe he’ll get much better with the bat because thats where he needs to improve.

]]> By: Fire Ned Colletti Now http://mikesciosciastragicillness.com/2008/07/10/no/713/#comment-3961 Fire Ned Colletti Now Fri, 11 Jul 2008 23:09:26 +0000 http://msti.wordpress.com/?p=713#comment-3961 bablue-That's like saying that if Ichiro had average speed, he would be a well below average player. Throwing out hypotheticals like that is a bit...pointless, isn't it? - PL-Yes, K's don't matter if your OPS and OBP are high, but Kemp is probably never going to control a strike zone like that. Given his speed and penchant for hitting ground balls, his current success/failure is highly linked to his K rate because of his BABIP. bablue-That’s like saying that if Ichiro had average speed, he would be a well below average player. Throwing out hypotheticals like that is a bit…pointless, isn’t it?
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PL-Yes, K’s don’t matter if your OPS and OBP are high, but Kemp is probably never going to control a strike zone like that. Given his speed and penchant for hitting ground balls, his current success/failure is highly linked to his K rate because of his BABIP.

]]> By: PL http://mikesciosciastragicillness.com/2008/07/10/no/713/#comment-3960 PL Fri, 11 Jul 2008 21:16:52 +0000 http://msti.wordpress.com/?p=713#comment-3960 MSTI, my main point is that if your OPS and OBP are high, K's should never factor into any conversation about how not-great a player is because there is no argument. Unless you are an absolute no-brainer superstar right off the bat (ie a Russ Martin, Jeter-type), oftentimes its extremely difficult for young players to thrive in the "big city" environments. Kemp has been messed around with plenty by the media, coaches etc. He's a 5 star talent that is going to be a superstar by the time he's 26. Its a shame restless fans, coaches and media arent willing to wait that long. MSTI, my main point is that if your OPS and OBP are high, K’s should never factor into any conversation about how not-great a player is because there is no argument.

Unless you are an absolute no-brainer superstar right off the bat (ie a Russ Martin, Jeter-type), oftentimes its extremely difficult for young players to thrive in the “big city” environments. Kemp has been messed around with plenty by the media, coaches etc. He’s a 5 star talent that is going to be a superstar by the time he’s 26. Its a shame restless fans, coaches and media arent willing to wait that long.

]]> By: bablue http://mikesciosciastragicillness.com/2008/07/10/no/713/#comment-3959 bablue Fri, 11 Jul 2008 21:10:53 +0000 http://msti.wordpress.com/?p=713#comment-3959 I agree with this article and hate the way the media treats Kemp. However, Kemp is not yet an average hitter. Yes, he has a 100 OPS+, but consider how many infield singles he has beaten out. Speed boosts your hitting stats, by getting you more infield hits and allowing you to stretch more singles into doubles and double into triples. While it can be that fast hitters try to hit the ball on the ground more to take advantage of their speed, you can't argue that speed is part of being a hitter. If Kemp had average speed, he would lose most of his infield single and therefore lose 30-40 points of OBP AND SLG. So, while eventually Kemp could be a superstar hitter, he is definitely not even average yet. I agree with this article and hate the way the media treats Kemp. However, Kemp is not yet an average hitter.

Yes, he has a 100 OPS+, but consider how many infield singles he has beaten out. Speed boosts your hitting stats, by getting you more infield hits and allowing you to stretch more singles into doubles and double into triples. While it can be that fast hitters try to hit the ball on the ground more to take advantage of their speed, you can’t argue that speed is part of being a hitter. If Kemp had average speed, he would lose most of his infield single and therefore lose 30-40 points of OBP AND SLG.

So, while eventually Kemp could be a superstar hitter, he is definitely not even average yet.

]]> By: Alec http://mikesciosciastragicillness.com/2008/07/10/no/713/#comment-3958 Alec Fri, 11 Jul 2008 20:09:40 +0000 http://msti.wordpress.com/?p=713#comment-3958 You really need to provide evidence before saying things like "the list of people like this is long, I'm sure." Mainstream reporting unwillingness to do this is the reason it is no longer taken seriously in real analysis. Get facts, then make a rebuttal. You really need to provide evidence before saying things like “the list of people like this is long, I’m sure.” Mainstream reporting unwillingness to do this is the reason it is no longer taken seriously in real analysis. Get facts, then make a rebuttal.

]]> By: Erich http://mikesciosciastragicillness.com/2008/07/10/no/713/#comment-3957 Erich Fri, 11 Jul 2008 19:00:49 +0000 http://msti.wordpress.com/?p=713#comment-3957 I'm really afraid they're going to trade Kemp based on Plashke's column today when he talks about young kids not "listening". That's utter horseshit-- again and again this dude and his front office throw the young budding Dodgers under the bus. Dodger Thoughts has a great post on it: http://dodgerthoughts.baseballtoaster.com/archives/1050756.html It makes me angry. People learn and develop at different paces, and Kemp's "problems" are still nothing compared to the issues that great listeners like some of the beloved veterans have. I’m really afraid they’re going to trade Kemp based on Plashke’s column today when he talks about young kids not “listening”. That’s utter horseshit– again and again this dude and his front office throw the young budding Dodgers under the bus. Dodger Thoughts has a great post on it:

http://dodgerthoughts.baseballtoaster.com/archives/1050756.html

It makes me angry. People learn and develop at different paces, and Kemp’s “problems” are still nothing compared to the issues that great listeners like some of the beloved veterans have.

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