Mike Scioscia's tragic illness

Steve Dilbeck Wears Red… Maroon… Burnt Sedona? Whatever.

Don’t worry, you haven’t accidentally stumbled upon to Mike Schmidt’s tragic illness. Believe it or not, there’s actually two good reasons for that picture to be appearing here today. First of all, the Phillies are going to be wearing retro uniforms tonight in the opener of the series against the Dodgers, so prepare yourselves to see those monstrosities. I just realized why it was a good thing that the 1970s never had HDTV; we’d never have survived.
The second reason is that Mike Schmidt made some interesting comments about Manny Ramirez to, of all places, the Providence Journal. He mostly says that the manner in which Manny left Boston was disgraceful, which is a pretty defensible point, but I really like this line:

“I hit for 20 years,” Schmidt said. “I don’t think I ever looked in the dugout or the stands and smiled at someone. That’s all he does!”

Except, that is, for hit even better than you over his career: 154 OPS+ to 147.
Mike Schmidt, however, is not the point of today’s discussion. Let’s talk about Steve Dilbeck of the LA Daily News. I don’t think we’ve ever mentioned Steve’s name on this blog before, so that either means he’s been accurate, boring, or irrelevant. Today, though, he wants to put forth the point that despite their recent additions, the Dodgers aren’t just going to be able to skate past the Diamondbacks for the NL West title – something I of course agree with. But let’s see what Steve’s reasons are…

The Dodgers are in the National League West race, such as it is. Have improved their play, currently have their best lineup in years.
And you think that’s enough to get all playoff giddy?

Well, they’re only two games out of the divison lead and a playoff berth so… yes? We’ve been through many times how the fact that the Dodgers are even in the race is because the rest of the West has been so lousy, but facts are facts: two games out of the playoffs. Therefore, I am excited about the team trying to make the playoffs.

Compose yourself. Manage a reality check.
The Diamondbacks are still the team to beat.
Got that? Can you process that on your personal Dodger Blue CPU?

The Diamondbacks are the team to beat because they currently reside in first place. Got it. No one’s arguing that. About that last part… is that a dig at blogs? Because the average Dodger fan at the park isn’t excited for a playoff push? At least he didn’t go with the “mom’s basement” line.
After some discussion of how long it’s been since LA made a World Series, he moves on to…

But the Diamondbacks are right there offensively, particularly with the addition of Adam Dunn. And they’re the team with the impressive rotation.

Excellent point. While the D-Backs rotation has been great with a 3.86 ERA, the absolutely putrid Dodgers starters are way, way back in the pack with a… 3.96 ERA.
Yes, I see. Wait, no. You’re basing your case by saying that the Diamondbacks have a better rotation, when they’re nearly exactly the same? And that’s even figuring in that the Dodgers’ supposed #1, Brad Penny, has been absolutely awful, yet they’ve been able to overcome that?

The Diamondbacks can claim three aces – Brandon Webb, Dan Haren and a now-healthy Randy Johnson.
The Dodgers have no ace. They have a very nice rotation filled with a lot of guys who would be the third or fourth starter in Arizona.

Steve. STEVE! Pay close attention to this, because I am not going to repeat it again. It’s very important, though.
2008 Chad Billingsley > 2008 Randy Johnson.
Randy Johnson, at 44 years old in 2008, is not an “ace”, nor is he better than Chad Billingsley. Chad has a better ERA by over a run (3.10 vs. 4.16). In fact, forget Billingsley for a moment. Johnson’s 4.16 ERA is worse than every single pitcher on the Dodgers active roster. I know that ERA isn’t the only way to grade a pitchers’ performance, but still – every single one. If that’s how you qualify “ace”, well, then I’m not too worried when you say the Dodgers “have no ace”. By that logic, Greg Maddux is still an ace too – like Johnson, he’s over 40 and his best days are behind him, but Maddux in 2008 still tops him in ERA (3.99 vs. 4.16) and WHIP (1.220 vs 1.280).
To put it quite simply, Randy Johnson might – might – be the Dodgers 5th starter right now, and only then because his presence probably means LA doesn’t go get Maddux.
I won’t argue about the sublime Brandon Webb, whose 19-4, 2.74 line is probably going to get him the Cy Young this year, and Dan Haren has been excellent too, although his ERA is very comparable to Wonderboy’s.. I mean, Billingsley (3.10 vs. 3.12). Plus, look at the back ends of the rotation; the Dodgers feature Clayton Kershaw (3.59 ERA) and now Maddux (3.99 ERA), while the #4 and 5 spots in Arizona have been mainly filled by Doug Davis (4.68) and Micah Owings (5.93). You can say that in the playoffs that won’t matter since it’s unlikely the #4 and 5 guys get a start, and that’s true. But only one of these teams is actually getting in, and with every game so crucial, having an advantage at the back of the rotation is huge.
But wait, here’s the best part. First Dilbeck writes:

With few exceptions, pitching is what wins at the highest level. The Diamondbacks have the best rotation in the division, and that’s why they have to be favored.

Which is fine in itself – even though I disagree that the D-Backs do have the best rotation, you can give them a slight edge due to Webb. Except that he follows that with:

The irony is, the Dodgers have enjoyed the league’s best overall pitching throughout the course of the season.

I’m not quite sure of the irony here. We’ve established that overall, the rotations are very similar, with Arizona stronger in the front and LA stronger in the back. But the bullpens aren’t even close; the Dodgers are second in MLB (1st in the NL) with a 3.07 bullpen ERA, while Arizona is way back at 20th, with a 4.11 mark. That’s ironic in the same sense like, oh, I don’t know, rain on your wedding day. It’s not irony. It’s a FACT.

At a time when their offense is most promising, their pitching is beginning to appear as something less than brilliant.
But their ace, Brad Penny, has suffered an injury-filled, lost season. He is probably done for the year, at least as a starter.

Wait, I thought the Dodgers didn’t have an ace? He’s probably not going to return in the rotation, but the latest news has him coming back in the bullpen, and can you imagine how good a bullpen that’s already the best in the league could be if it adds a two-time All-Star?

The Dodgers’ best starters have been Chad Billingsley (12-9, 3.10) and Derek Lowe (10-10, 3.89). Then they are counting on the inconsistent Japanese import, Hiroki Kuroda (7-9, 3.97), a 20-year-old rookie with 14 appearances, Clayton Kershaw (2-3, 3.59), and a 42-year-old who’s won three games since May 10, Greg Maddux (6-9, 3.99).

What a cheap, lazy journalism job it is to say that Maddux has “won three games since May 10″. Have we not established that games won are a terrible way to discuss a pitcher? Don’t forget, the Padres are one of the worst teams in baseball, so it’s no surprise Maddux didn’t get a lot of wins. Look at some of the games he didn’t win: 2 ER over 6 IP against the Giants on May 30; 1 ER over 7 IP against the Cubs on June 4th; 1 ER over 6 IP against the Dodgers on June 10th; and 2 ER over 6 IP against the Indians on June 15th, a game in which he actually got the loss. Plus, those three wins have all come in his last four starts. You’re right. That guy stinks!
I also like how he dismisses Kershaw because of his inexperience. I don’t disagree that his youth is a worry, but let’s not act like he’s not been a very effective pitcher, especially lately. Plus, while we’ve discussed Kuroda’s odd “all or nothing” splits, he’s been very good lately: 2.57 ERA in his last three starts, and a 14-3 K/BB ratio.

Setup man Jonathan Broxton has assumed the closer’s role, mostly with success. After closing Thursday’s 3-1 victory, he is 10 of 11 in save situations since Saito went down with an elbow injury. But many have been a struggle, and his record is 3-5.
He can make the save an adventure and needs occasional time off.

Broxton has been a little… adventurous, it’s true. But let’s not pretend that 10 out of 11 isn’t very good – and a closer’s win/loss record is nearly irrelevant. Dilbeck does have a point that Broxton needs occasional time off – how dare he be human? Unlike Arizona closer Tony Pena, who can pitch in 162 games a season and play cornerback for the Cardinals on Sundays.

With Broxton closing, the setup role has been delegated to a committee, with mixed success. Hong-Chin Kuo, Joe Beimel and Chan Ho Park have all taken turns.

Beimel: 4-0, 1.83 ERA
Kuo: 4-2, 2.21 ERA
Park: 4-3, 2.51 ERA
Those stiffs! Yes, in the last week, Kuo and Park each contributed to blowing a lead. Let’s not let that color how good they’ve been over the entire season. Don’t forget, the home run Kuo allowed was his first in three months.

Pennant stretch battles normally go to the team with the better pitching.
“It’s still what we’re going to count on,” Torre said. “I know we have a more formidable lineup, but it’s still what we’re going to count on to keep us in a game. We can win games without scoring a lot of runs.”
The trouble is, so can Arizona.

And as we’ve clearly shown, it’s in no way a slamdunk that Arizona has better pitching, and there’s simply no question that the Dodgers have a superior bullpen. Hey, maybe the Dodgers won’t overtake Arizona, and maybe they will. Can we please not suck the fun out of even watching them try?

- Mike Scioscia’s tragic illness