Hot Off the Presses, Here’s Your Playoff Roster
September 30, 2008 at 2:34 pm | In 2008 NLDS vs. Cubs, PLAYOFFS | 2 CommentsBefore we get to the pitching staffs, the NLDS roster has just been announced moments ago (it’s all over, but I saw it on Tony Jackson’s blog first, and I’ve edited it for formatting):
PITCHERS
Beimel, Billingsley, Broxton, Kershaw, Kuroda, Park, Lowe, Saito, Troncoso, Maddux, WadeCATCHERS
Ardoin, MartinINFIELDERS
Berroa, Blake, DeWitt, Furcal, Garciaparra, Kent, Loney, OzunaOUTFIELDERS
Ethier, Kemp, Pierre, Ramirez
Only one big surprise for me, and that’s Ramon Troncoso making it over Scott Proctor, because in 8 games since his return he’s allowed only a .250 OBP and a 2.57 ERA. But according to Jackson, Proctor’s still not healthy enough to warm up more than once in a game, and Torre wanted someone who can do that.
Not a big surprise to see Pablo Ozuna make it, because as I said the other day…
You know, I was all ready to go into an epic rant about how bad Ozuna is and how much I’d rather see Young on the roster… but I just can’t. Contrary to what I had thought, Ozuna’s not just an infielder who’d made an emergency appearance in the outfield – he’s made 63 career appearances out there. And while I do think Ozuna is a big zero at the plate (career OPS+ of 76, and only 66 for LA), Young hasn’t been much better this year, with only a 71 OPS+. Now don’t get me wrong, because we’re still huge fans of Young’s around here (check out his crazy minor league stats in a post we made on him in June) and I think a huge reason for his lack of productivity is his sporadic at best playing time. But the playoffs are no time to work out the hitting kinks, and clearly he’s not a plus with the glove.
On to the pitching staffs for the NLDS, but before I break down Cubs vs. Dodgers specifically, I have to point this out. You know how they say “good pitching beats good hitting?” Well, I don’t know who the hell they are, but they couldn’t be more right.
NL ERA ranks, 2008
1) Dodgers 3.68
2) Brewers 3.85
3) Cubs 3.87
4) Phillies 3.88
So… you’re saying that if you want to make the playoffs, you have to have solid pitching? A novel idea, sir!
Starters
Derek Lowe (14-11, 3.24 ERA, 1.13 WHIP)
Chad Billingsley (16-10, 3.14 ERA, 1.34 WHIP)
Hiroki Kuroda (9-10, 3.73 ERA, 1.22 WHIP)
Greg Maddux (8-13, 4.22 ERA, 1.21 WHIP)
Ryan Dempster (17-6, 2.96 ERA, 1.21 WHIP)
Carlos Zambrano (14-6, 3.91 ERA, 1.29 WHIP)
Rich Harden (10-2, 2.07 ERA, 1.06 WHIP)
Ted Lilly (17-9, 4.09 ERA, 1.23 WHIP)
Even Ken Rosenthal recognizes the dominance of the Dodgers starting staff, saying that he can almost see the following happening:
Game 1: The hottest pitcher in the baseball — Dodgers righty Derek Lowe — silences the howling masses at Wrigley.
Game 2: Cubs ace Carlos Zambrano freaks out.
Game 3: Dodgers righty Hiroki Kuroda continues his late-season surge and season-long excellence at Dodger Stadium.
Of course, Rosenthal later backs down and predicts Cubs in 5, but he’s not entirely wrong. Lowe has been out of his mind good lately (more on this in tomorrow’s Game 1 preview), Kuroda and Billingsley have both been excellent over the last month or so, and Zambrano has been awful since his no-hitter on September 14th, giving up 13 earned runs in just 6.1 innings over two starts. So often it’s not about who has the better rotation, but who has the hotter rotation. That said, Rich Harden has been utterly dominant since his arrival in Chicago from Oakland, and if each team decides to use a 4th starter in Game 4 rather than bringing back the Game 1 starter, Ted Lilly is a big advantage over Greg Maddux.
So what you have here is two excellent rotations, each rightfully considered a strength of their team. The Cubs probably have more talent, but the Dodgers might have momentum. Really, I think both sides are going to get good work from these groups, so the edge really depends on Carlos Zambrano. If he’s as good as he’s been for the last several years, that’s a huge boost to Chicago – but if he can’t turn it around from how bad he’s been lately, that pushes the meter towards Los Angeles.
Advantage: Cubs – but only if Zambrano’s healthy and effective
Relievers
R Takashi Saito (4-4, 2.49 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 18/22 saves)
R Jonathan Broxton (3-5, 3.13 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 14/22 saves)
L Joe Beimel (5-1, 2.02 ERA, 1.45 WHIP)
R Chan Ho Park (4-4, 3.40 ERA, 1.40 WHIP)
R Cory Wade (2-1, 2.27 ERA, 0.93 WHIP)
R Ramon Troncoso (1-1, 4.26 ERA, 1.28 WHIP)
L Clayton Kershaw (5-5, 4.26 ERA, 1.50 WHIP)
R Kerry Wood (5-4, 3.26 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 34/40 saves)
R Carlos Marmol (2-4, 2.68 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 7/9 saves)
R Bobby Howry (7-5, 5.35 ERA, 1.46 WHIP)
L Neal Cotts (0-2, 4.29 ERA, 1.43 WHIP)
L Sean Marshall (3-5, 3.86 ERA, 1.27 WHIP)
R Michael Wuertz (1-1, 3.53 ERA, 1.43 WHIP)
R Jeff Samardzija (1-0, 2.28 ERA, 1.41 WHIP)
While the Cubs relievers finished a mediocre 8th in the NL with a 4.10 ERA, the Dodgers managed to place second with a 3.33 mark. Worse, the Cubs’ pen has struggled mightly in September – check Kerry Wood’s 6.75 ERA and Neal Cotts’ 8.10. Even Samardzija was lousy with a 5.40 ERA. In fact, the only Cub reliever to show any effectiveness in the last month is Carlos Marmol, who struck out more than a man per inning with a 2.84 ERA in September.
The Dodgers pen has been excellent all year long, but they’re not without their own question marks. The loss of Hong-Chih Kuo (who had been a revelation with 96 K in 80 IP and a 2.14 ERA) is really going to hurt, and the reliability of Takashi Saito is still uncertain after his return from an elbow injury. That said, this is a good, solid group. Cory Wade and Joe Beimel have been solid all year, and Kershaw should add some juice in the middle innings if needed.
Advantage: Dodgers
- Mike Scioscia’s tragic illness 
1,012 – 1,012
September 29, 2008 at 4:50 pm | In 2008 NLDS vs. Cubs, PLAYOFFS | 6 Comments
Yesterday I pointed out that the Dodgers and Cubs have been around (in various incarnations) since the 19th century, yet had never once played each other in the playoffs. I thought for sure that this was going to be the most interesting stat about the upcoming playoff series… and leave it to the Chicago Tribune to completely blow me out of the water:
The Cubs and Dodgers have played each other 2,024 times since their first game in Brooklyn in 1890, splitting the all-time series 1,012-1,012.
Are you kidding me? How is that remotely possible? An exact .500 split over 118 years? Someone call NASA, because I need to know the odds on this one. How about a bajillionty to one?
Anyway, we’ve got two off days left before the first Dodgers playoff matchup in the short history of this blog. You really think we’re not going to milk it for all it’s worth? Break it down. Today we’ll look at the offenses, tomorrow the pitching staffs. Trust me, Dodger fans, tomorrow will be more fun.
Catcher
Russell Martin (.280/.395/.396 13hr 69rbi)
Geovany Soto (.285/.364/.504 23hr 86rbi)
Fantastic. There’s about 27 major league teams that couldn’t come close to competing with the Dodgers in terms of catching quality, and we’re playing one of the very few that not only can, but might have a claim on being superior. Great start! To put Soto’s .504 SLG into perspective, Cult Hero Andre Ethier’s is .510. On the plus side, Martin is coming in hot (1.011 OPS over the last two weeks) while Soto has hit just .227 over the same span – and Soto’s only gotten into two games since September 20th due to a sore left hand, neither of which he was able to make it all nine innings in. In reserve, both teams have entrants in the International Fraternity of Backup Catchers (Danny Ardoin and Henry Blanco) who each hope get exactly zero at-bats.
Advantage: Cubs, if Soto’s healthy
First Base
James Loney (.289/.338/.434 13hr 90rbi)
Derrek Lee (.291/.361/.461 20hr 90rbi)
Chalk up another one for the Cubbies. Loney somehow ended up as the Dodgers’ leading RBI man despite an eternally unexciting season, but Lee’s been one of the best first basemen in baseball for quite a while now, and Loney hasn’t quite passed him just yet. That said, expect Nomar Garciparra to get the start against lefty Ted Lilly. Nomar’s pasted lefties with a 1.067 OPS so far, and nailed homers in each of his last two starts against southpaws.
Advantage: Cubs
Second Base
Blake DeWitt (.264/.344/.383 9hr 52rbi)
Mark DeRosa (.285/.376/.481 21hr 87rbi)
We’re going with DeWitt here because while Jeff Kent is almost certainly going to be on the playoff roster, it’s doubtful he’s going to be healthy enough to man second base for nine innings. I am, however, calling BS on that stat line for DeWitt, because it includes his death spiral of June and July before getting sent down. Since his return on August 28th, he’s been much better with a 284/.402/.443 line – very comparable to DeRosa’s. The Cubbies second sacker – a stalwart of my fantasy team due to his pop and multi-positional eligibility – missed the last four games with an injured left calf, but according to the Chicago Sun-Times, it sounds like he’ll be ready to go on Wednesday.
Advantage: Cubs, if DeRosa’s healthy
Shortstop
Rafael Furcal (.357/.439/.573 5hr 16rbi)
Ryan Theriot (.307/.387/.359 1hr 38rbi)
I am very very tenuously predicting that Furcal’s going to get the start in Game 1. He’s looked okay since returning from back surgery, even though it was only three starts, and collected two hits in his last game. If he’s not, then the Dodgers will be forced to turn to Angel Berroa, who - for all the talk of his “resurgence” – is still only hitting .240/.329/.360 over the last month. By which I mean, “eeeccch.” As for Theriot, I have to admit I was surprised when I looked up his stats. Does this team have anyone who can’t hit? I’m tempted to give the Cubs the advantage here anyway just because of the uncertainty over Furcal, but what the hell:
Advantage: Dodgers, if Furcal’s healthy
Third Base
Casey Blake (.274/.345/.463 20hr 81rbi)
Aramis Ramirez (.289/.380/.518 27hr 111rbi)
Hey, remember that time I hated the Casey Blake deal? Well, it’s not getting better. Blake’s OPS+ has dropped from 116 in Cleveland before the deal to 97 in Los Angeles, and he’s put up a dreadful .220/.297/.415 over the last month. Hey, that was definitely worth giving up minor league MVP Carlos Santana for! Ramirez, meanwhile, ended up with the 4th highest VORP of all MLB 3B, behind only Chipper Jones, David Wright, and Alex Rodriguez. Hmm, I wonder how this one’s going to go.
Advantage: Holy Cow! Cubs win!
Left Field
Manny Ramirez (.332/.430/.601 37hr 121rbi)
Alfonso Soriano (.280/.344/.532 29hr 75rbi)
How good has Manny been since coming west? Well, let’s see. Soriano is an excellent hitter, who finished 11th in VORP among MLB left fielders, and that’s even with missing some time due to injury. Manny finished 3rd in that category – but I’m just talking about Dodger Manny. Manny’s NL season started August 1st, and he was still the 3rd best outfielder over the course of a full season. Boston Manny was 8th, by the way. Look, you don’t need me to tell you how good Manny is. Just get a seat out on Waveland Avenue when he’s up and enjoy the show.
Advantage: Manny being Manny!
Center Field
Matt Kemp (.290/.340/.459 18hr 76rbi)
Jim Edmonds (.256/.369/.568 19hr 49rbi)
The Corpse of Jim Edmonds made a pretty admirable comeback after being all but dumped by San Diego earlier in the season, and I hate to say it but… I might have to call it for the Cubs, as unbelievable as that would have sounded a few months ago. I mean, the numbers don’t lie – Kemp’s OPS over the last month is .750, while Edmonds’ is .929. Crap. That’s not even close, although Kemp’s 35 stolen bases do help him out.
Advantage. Cubs. I guess.
Right Field
Andre Ethier (.305/.375/.510 20hr 77rbi)
Kosuke Fukudome (.257/.359/.379 10hr 58rbi)
I’m putting Fukudome here because he has the most starts in RF over the season, but it sure sounds like he’s not actually going to be the man out there. Now that I look at the lineups, it seems that lately DeRosa has been their RF while Mike Fontenot holds down second base. This doesn’t really change the rankings any, since I’d still give second to the Cubs no matter which of DeRosa/Fontenot plays and since no Cubs RF is going to take down Andre Ethier. Look, you think Manny has been hot? Do not underestimate a man who over the last month has a line of .462/.557/.629 for an otherworldly 1.249, which is actually better than Manny’s over the same time period.
Advantage: Dodgers
Bench
Neither team has announced their playoff rosters yet, so I’m kind of guessing on these here, especially the Cubs. In fact, I’m just going to take the top five prospective bench guys for each team.
C Danny Ardoin (.235/.278/.314 1hr 4rbi)
1B/SS/3B Nomar Garciaparra (.264/.326/.466 8hr 28rbi)
2B/1B Jeff Kent (.280/.327/.418 12hr 59rbi)
LF/CF Juan Pierre (.238/.327/.328 1hr 28rbi 40sb)
SS/2B Angel Berroa (.230/.304/.310 1hr 16rbi)
C Henry Blanco (.222/.325/.392 3hr 12rbi)
2B Mike Fontenot (.305/.395/.514 9hr 40rbi)
SS/2B Ronny Cedeno (.269/.328/.352 2hr 28rbi)
LF/CF/RF Reed Johnson (.303/.358/.420 6hr 50rbi)
1B/LF/RF Daryle Ward (.216/.319/.402 4hr 17rbi)
As I said before, it’s likely that Fontenot ends up in the starting lineup with DeRosa either in right or injured, but all that does is further weaken a bench that can’t compete with the group the Dodgers have. Kent and Nomar have been your standard declining injury-prone veterans for more than a little while now, but as weapons off the bench they can be more than effective, and Nomar’s positional flexibility could prove extremely useful. Plus, there’s Juan Pierre, and you know how much I despise him as an everyday outfielder, but off the bench in a pinch-running role he’s a valuable weapon to have – think Dave Roberts in 2004 for Boston. The Cubs have old friends Blanco and Ward, neither of whom have done much this year, and if – as seems likely – Fontenot isn’t here, then that means either Johnson or Fukudome (if he makes the roster) is their man bat off the bench, and that just can’t compare to what the Dodgers can bring.
Advantage: Dodgers, notwithstanding the fact that this bench makes about $25 million more than the Cubs reserves do.
Final tally
Cubs 5 (C, 1B, 2B, 3B, CF)
Dodgers 4 (SS, LF, RF, bench)
- Mike Scioscia’s tragic illness
Off to Chicago It Is…
September 28, 2008 at 4:41 pm | In Bill Plaschke, Hiroki Kuroda, Manny Ramirez, Nomar Garciaparra, blithering idiot | 5 Comments
“Why,” you might be asking, “did you use a picture of the famous Wrigley Field facade where the idiot who was taking the picture snapped it in mid-sentence rather than waiting for the change to complete?” That’s because I am that idiot, and I took this picture myself in July while on tour, although I’m sad to say that this is as far as I was able to get. I was worried about how much money I could afford to spend on a scalped ticket – well forget that, I couldn’t even find anyone looking to sell, and this was on a Friday afternoon. Never underestimate the fervor of the Cubs fan.
Now we’ve got two off-days in which to discuss the upcoming NLDS in more detail before Derek Lowe (career 3.25 ERA against the Cubs in 8 starts) faces off against Ryan Dempster (career 3.01 ERA against LA in 19 appearances/9 starts) on Wednesday. I don’t think, however, any stat is going to amaze you more than this one:
The Dodgers (1884) and Cubs (1876) have been around for 256 combined years… and have never once faced each other in the playoffs. How unbelievable is that? Sure, that nearly forty year break from the postseason the Cubs took between 1945-1984 is a large part of that, but still, these two teams have somehow never battled in October.
So here’s what we know while waiting for the playoff roster to come out:
*Hong-Chih Kuo, Jason Repko, Ramon Troncoso, Chin-Lung Hu, and Eric Stults are officially not going to make the playoff roster, and will head south to play in the Arizona Instructional League (except Stults, who is going to Mexico) to keep in shape if they’re needed later. No surprises here.
*In fact, I don’t think there’s really all that much drama left over the postseason roster now that Penny and Kuo are both out and Kent and Furcal are both almost certainly on. Seems like Maddux and Kershaw are each going to make it, and the only question really is whether the last man off the bench is going to be Mark Sweeney, Delwyn Young, or Pablo Ozuna.
* Nomar Garciaparra greatly overvalues speed. Just kidding, sort of. But in his one-day role as manager, he did let Juan Pierre lead off. Haven’t we learned how much that can kill an offense by now? On the other hand, he did let A.J. Ellis get his first career start and at-bat, which was nice.
*Very quietly, Hiroki Kuroda has been incredibly valuable. After he allowed just two hits over five scoreless innings today, that makes eleven straight starts in which he hasn’t allowed more than four earned runs. Over those eleven starts his ERA is just 2.58, and he’s LA’s third starter at best. How many teams would kill for a first starter with those numbers?
* Bill Plaschke hates sunshine and kittens. I’ve made a concious effort to not discuss offseason issues like Lowe’s free agency or going after CC Sabathia (who is an absolute beast, by the way) while this team is still in the hunt, and I intend to stick to that. There’s just something unseemly about coming out with negative articles about the future on the day a playoff team ends its regular season, isn’t it? But that’s Plaschke for you. In this article, he goes off about how the Dodgers shouldn’t invest a boatload of money into bringing Manny back, and while I may or may not agree with him, why is he coming out this with this kind of crap right now? Is he physically incapable of praising a team that’s just made the playoffs? Even though I could expend 2000 words on it, I’m not going to go through this entire thing, because I don’t want to sink to his level. That said, there’s one “point” he makes I simply cannot ignore.
Some members of the Dodgers, however, aren’t so sure.
They look at their record since acquiring Ramirez, 29-23, an average slate that proves one thing:
The guy is great, but the guy can’t pitch.
I’m not even sure I follow this point. Manny was acquired because the Dodgers had a lousy offense that wasn’t supporting their excellent pitching staff. Even when they went on that eight game losing streak, it wasn’t because the staff was falling apart - it was because the offense died. Remember back in June and July when all the Sabathia rumors were flying around and I was strongly against them because the Dodgers didn’t need more pitching, they needed an offensive force? That’s because the Dodgers have one of the best pitching staffs in all of baseball.
So why are you painting it as a bad thing that Manny’s a hitter and not a pitcher? Because let me tell you this in no uncertain terms: if the Dodgers had acquired Sabathia and not Manny, they’d have had one of the best pitching staffs ever – and they’d have missed the playoffs thanks to all the 1-0 and 2-1 games they’d have lost.
And again, the deal worked out great for this season. No one argues that, and I don’t neccessarily disagree that giving a huge amount of cash to late-30s Manny is a questionable decision. But on the verge of the playoffs, there’s plenty of time for that conversation another day.
Knock it off, Bill. I look forward to the Dodgers winning the World Series and your inevitably unreadable column full of one-paragraph-sentences saying, “yeah, but if they had done what I’d wanted, they’d have swept the series rather than won in six.”
* Fun Picture Update! At Joe Sports Fan via The Big Lead, have this fantastic picture from the celebration the other night that I hadn’t seen before. No, don’t look at Manny – check out the scoreboard in the distance behind him. Oops!
- Mike Scioscia’s tragic illness
Welcome to the Playoff Roster, Jeff
September 27, 2008 at 12:30 am | In Blake DeWitt, Delwyn Young, Jeff Kent, Pablo Ozuna, Scott Proctor | 16 Comments
Just in case there was any question left about whether Jeff Kent (or, as Vin likes to call him, “Anakent Baseclearer”, and since Vin made this excellent Photoshop, he can call him whatever he likes) was going to make the playoff roster, I’d say that’s about answered. Let’s do some math.
Kent playing the field on back to back nights + Kent crushing a ball into the left field seats + Torre being unlikely to let a veteran star go out on the sidelines = this man’s going to be a part of the final 25.
Speaking of the playoff roster, I’m going to make my final prediction from the original one I had made weeks ago. I’m making three changes – Brad Penny’s obviously not going to be there, I no longer have faith in Hong-Chih Kuo being there, and with both Kent and Nomar likely coming off the bench, that hopefully alleviates the “need” for Mark Sweeney.
Replacing Penny is going to be Greg Maddux. He was the hardest to leave off my list originally anyway, and that was before Torre said he’d “probably” use four starters if it went that far. Replacing Kuo? Believe it or not… Scott Proctor has probably forced his way onto the roster, because he’s been excellent since his return from the DL. I know – I was surprised too. But he was unscored upon in his first 7 outings (striking out 10 in 6.1 IP) until giving up one of the most bizarre home runs you’ll ever see tonight in San Francisco, and we all know he’s a Torre favorite. So he’s in too. As for the last spot… well, it’s anyone’s guess. Chin-Lung Hu or Pablo Ozuna for further infield depth? Delwyn Young for a switch-hitting bat off the bench? Sweeney for “veteranness”? I tend to think in such a short series, a 6th middle infielder isn’t really that important, and Sweeney just simply cannot hit. So it’s Young, right?
Well, not so fast, says Diamond Leung, and avert your eyes, because this is going to be horrifying:
Ozuna is now schedule to play in the outfield tomorrow, as he’s under consideration for the playoff roster due to his versatility.
You know, I was all ready to go into an epic rant about how bad Ozuna is and how much I’d rather see Young on the roster… but I just can’t. Contrary to what I had thought, Ozuna’s not just an infielder who’d made an emergency appearance in the outfield – he’s made 63 career appearances out there. And while I do think Ozuna is a big zero at the plate (career OPS+ of 76, and only 66 for LA), Young hasn’t been much better this year, with only a 71 OPS+. Now don’t get me wrong, because we’re still huge fans of Young’s around here (check out his crazy minor league stats in a post we made on him in June) and I think a huge reason for his lack of productivity is his sporadic at best playing time. But the playoffs are no time to work out the hitting kinks, and clearly he’s not a plus with the glove.
On the other hand, the fact that we’re even contemplating Ozuna for the postseason roster is completely mind-blowing considering that they thought so highly of him, they DFA’d him less than a month ago rather than waiting 4 more days for the rosters to expand. So who knows.
Which would make the roster like so:
C: Martin, Ardoin
IF: Loney, DeWitt, Furcal, Blake, Nomar, Kent, Berroa, Ozuna
OF: Manny, Kemp, Ethier, Pierre
P: Lowe, Billingsley, Kuroda, Kershaw, Maddux, Park, Beimel, Proctor, Wade, Broxton, Saito
As for where that team might be going… it’s really starting to look like Chicago, thanks to the Mets reprising their 2007 death spiral. The Phillies’ magic number is now down to 1, and the Brewers have won 5 straight to grab a 1 game lead in the Wild Card. So instead of getting to face a tired Mets or Phillies team, it looks like the Blue are going to have to face the well-rested best team in the League. Thanks, Mets!
I’d also like to ask a question: which scenario do you find more surprising? Blake DeWitt being the 2008 Opening Day third baseman… or Blake DeWitt (likely) being the starting second baseman in Game 1 of the NLDS?
- Mike Scioscia’s tragic illness
I’ve Never Cared So Little About a Loss
September 26, 2008 at 9:51 am | In Brad Penny, PLAYOFFS | 4 CommentsDespite making Jake Peavy throw over 50 pitches in the 5th inning, the Dodgers were unable to beat back the Padres, as each of the LA pitchers allowed at least one… ah hell, who cares!
PARTY!!!
I’ve never seen a Dodgers game with an atmosphere like that – it was like watching spring training, except with 50,000 people as opposed to 5,000. As it just so happened to be the last regular season home game of the season, Joe Torre really put a flourish on it with his lineup choices. Not only did we get to see Rafael Furcal and Jeff Kent start up the middle together for the first time in over four months, but the whole “send a guy out to his position, but replace him before the inning starts” idea – thus allowing the fans to give standing ovations to guys like Kent, Furcal, and Manny – was electrifying.
Now obviously there was quite the party after the game, and I’m not going to recap that all here, since that’s already been done pretty well across the Dodger web (Sons of Steve Garvey, as usual, comes up with the best pictures, and Andrew Kamenetzy from the LA Times’ Blue Notes blog was in the middle of the chaos). Although I will point out that Joe Beimel in his custom Dodgers robe, complete with uniform number, is probably one of the best things I’ve ever seen.
So now it’s off to San Francisco for three of the least meaningful games you’ll ever see, hopefully populated by heavy doses of Delwyn Young, Chin-Lung Hu, Jason Repko, and the like. And can we please get A.J. Ellis an at-bat? He’s caught in two games, but has yet to see the plate. You never know if he gets another chance in the bigs, so don’t let him go out like this. Free A.J. Ellis! More important, however, than anything that happens up by the Bay this weekend is how things shake out for the other two NL playoff spots, since there’s still three different opponents that the Dodgers could face - Chicago, New York, or Philadelphia.
Now all along, I’ve been saying “Let’s go Mets!” simply because their bullpen is a completely abysmal house of horrors, and I’d still like to see them in the first round. But I’ve now realized that there’s something way more important to cheer for this weekend, and it’s not any one team in particular: it’s time. Think about it – the Cubs have known they’d be in for weeks, and have been able to adjust their rotation accordingly. The Dodgers, now that they’ve clinched, have rearranged their staff so that Derek Lowe and Chad Billingsley can pitch Games 1 & 2 on normal rest (extra rest, actually, for Chad). But the Mets, Phillies, and Brewers still need to claw for every last game, and if they should be forced to extend this through the weekend, all three have their aces lined up for what would likely be a do-or-die game on Sunday: Johan Santana, Cole Hamels, and CC Sabathia respectively. Forget Milwaukee, since there’s no way LA can play them, but what that effectively means is that neither the Mets or Phillies would have their ace available for Game 1, which would also make it more difficult to bring him back for a second start should the series go to four or five games. Who would you rather be facing in Game 1 as Shea Stadium rocks with the cheers of its final season: Johan Santana… or Mike Pelfrey?
So sure, root for the Mets. Root for the Brewers to collapse. But more than anything, root for the battle to go as long as possible. And hey, even though it’ll ruin my weekend, I don’t care: root for rain. It’s been raining in New York City all day, and it’s expected to last through the weekend. How great would it be to play a Mets team that just had to run through their top starters and most of their bullpen in a do-or-die Monday doubleheader?
It’s going to be an exciting weekend, folks. It’s really nice to have finished this off early and relax while watching prospective opponents kill each other just to get in.
* One other thing to discuss, and I hate to be a downer, but I can’t let this go by. What the hell is up with this?
The locker of Brad Penny was empty Thursday and Penny himself was nowhere to be seen.
The Dodgers’ opening-day starter, Penny was placed on the 60-day disabled list Wednesday to open up a spot on the 40-man roster for Furcal. Penny is ineligible for postseason play.
Torre said he had no idea about Penny’s whereabouts.
“I didn’t get a chance to say hello or goodbye,” Torre said. “He was here yesterday and he disappeared. I didn’t ask him to leave.”
General Manager Ned Colletti said he spoke Wednesday to Penny’s agent, Greg Genske, but refused to divulge the nature of their conversation. Genske did not return voice messages.
Penny, who has a $9.25-million option for next season that could be bought out for $2 million, said this month that he was disappointed that the Dodgers refused to extend his contract this spring.
Sounds like we’ve seen the last of him, but what a way to do it. Who clears out their locker on the day the team – of which you are the most senior member of – wins the division? I was still considering the possibility of picking up his option next year, which is really only a $7 million decision thanks to the buy-out. But if he’s just going to bail on the team during the playoff run, and not even tell anyone at that, then no thanks.
- Mike Scioscia’s tragic illness
Ladies and Gentlemen, Your 2008 NL West Champions
September 25, 2008 at 10:33 pm | In Uncategorized | 6 Comments
Somewhat anticlimactic, since the final blow was delivered about 1500 miles away in St. Louis while the Dodger players weren’t even at the stadium yet, but who cares – we’ll take it! Can you believe this day has actually come? This has been an absolutely unbelievable season of ups and downs. For every Nomar walkoff dinger, there’s Rafael Furcal having back surgery. You have Andruw Jones being the most disappointing player ever, but you also have Andre Ethier becoming one of the most solid outfielders in baseball. Really, what can sum this up better than an eight game losing streak followed by an eight game winning streak?
We’ve loved Manny, and we’ve panned Pierre. We’ve praised Torre, and we’ve really hated Torre. We’ve watched Chad Billingsley grow into a bona fide ace, and we’ve seen former ace Brad Penny be nearly useless. We’ve watched Chan Ho Park resurrect his career and Blake DeWitt and Cory Wade come out of nowhere to start theirs, and we’ve seen Mark Sweeney struggle along like a horse on its way to the glue factory.
And here’s the best part: the Dodgers have a real chance in this thing. Yesterday I posted that a large debt is due the Diamondbacks and the rest of the crappy division for allowing the Dodgers to be in this position, and I still believe that to be true – if the Dodgers played in any other division, we’d have given up playoff hopes long ago. It’s not only a fact, they’d likely have been so far out that the Manny and Blake trades would never have even been made.
But what I did not mean to imply was that the Dodgers are somehow impostors, undeserving of the chance to compete. The fact is, the Dodgers of September 25, 2008 are markedly different than the Dodgers of May 25, 2008. That team didn’t have Manny Ramirez. That team still gave serious playing time to stiffs like Jones and Pierre. That team had just lost Furcal, rather than just regained him. That team still counted on Brad Penny, while this one has seen Andre Ethier emerge. That team watched DeWitt, Nomar and Andy LaRoche scuffle around third after DeWitt’s hot start, while this team has Casey Blake solidifying the position – horrible trade for him aside.
Need proof? The Dodgers are the best team in baseball since September 1, and it’s not even particularly close. They have 16 wins, while no other team has more than 13. The pitching has been excellent, as their 2.99 ERA tops the game – as does the .643 OPS against. But we always knew this team could pitch. That’s not the exciting part; the fact that their offense has been so good is. During September, they have the third best OPS in baseball at .826, and the only teams topping them are noted bashers Texas and Florida. Thanks mostly to Manny and Russell Martin, they are walking a ton, as their OBP of .378 tops the NL and is only .001 behind Texas’ mark.
When the playoffs get going, we’ll be seeing plenty about how the Dodgers have a mediocre offense, as their season OPS is only 21st in MLB on the season, between Houston and Cincinnati. They’ll say the Blue have no power, since they rank 22nd – behind Pittsburgh. And those people will be wrong, because this Dodgers team has changed remarkably over that time. Call it seeing things through blue-color glasses if you must, but no team in baseball is playing better on both sides of the ball right now.
This is the year we forget about Jose Lima forever. But probably not his wife.
In the four games remaining, this team needs to accomplish two things and two things only:
1) Rest the guys who need it. Manny has yet to take a day off since coming to LA. You probably don’t want to do that tonight since the home fans want to see him, but he’d better get at least one day off in San Francisco. Ditto for Martin, who’d better be seeing pine in at least two of the four games. The same goes for Chad Billingsley, although I believe the plan is to start him on Sunday just for a few innings to get his work in and have him be ready to go for game 2 of the NLDS. Can we please see Eric Stults out there?
2) Sort out your injury concerns. Can Jeff Kent contribute? If he can’t play defense at all, he’s unlikely to make the postseason roster. He did get a base hit last night in his first game back, and while he was immediately lifted for a runner, he didn’t seem to be limping at all while running back to the bench. Possibly more important is Rafael Furcal, who got an at-bat and an inning at shortstop last night. Even if it’s not realistic for him to be a 9-inning shortstop in the playoffs, just the thought of him back at the top of this lineup makes me drool. On the pitching side, Takashi Saito seems to have proven his health, so the only concern lies with Hong-Chih Kuo. If he can’t get into any of these remaining games, I have a hard time thinking he’ll make the playoff roster.
Playoffs start in six days, baby! Enjoy it!
- Mike Scioscia’s tragic illness
Anyone Still Worried?
September 24, 2008 at 7:35 am | In Hong-Chih Kuo, Rafael Furcal | 19 CommentsAmazing what a little ten-run outburst combined with an Arizona loss can do for your outlook on life, isn’t it? I’m pretty sure we won’t be seeing as much hand-wringing and worry around the intertubes as was going on yesterday. Despite the exhortations from FireNedCollettiNow to avoid saying the “P” word, I’m going to be the one to say it: the Dodgers are going to make the playoffs. There. It’s done.
That said, Let’s go Mets! Anyone here prefer to play the Cubs over the Phillies in the first round? Yeah, I didn’t think so. Well, we’re going to Chicago if the Brewers manage to pull out the wild card, so here’s to CC Sabathia finally breaking down from overuse tonight. And not after we give him a 7-year, $160 million deal in the offseason. Ugh.
So here’s what I’m most interested in right now: Rafael Furcal. The latest update, from today’s LA Times, seems to be a positive one:
Rafael Furcal said the pain in his surgically repaired lower back has diminished to a point where he is no longer hesitant about venturing onto the field.
“I’m ready for however they want to use me,” Furcal said, adding that the only physical discomfort he’s experiencing these days is some mild tightness in his hamstrings.
I know, I know; counting on Rafael Furcal for anything is a little bit like depending on Jason Schmidt. But I say, it’s time to throw him out there, because what’s the downside? I know this is going to sound pretty inhumane, but what’s the worst that can happen – he gets hurt again? He’s a free agent after the season, so it’s not like the Dodgers are on the hook for paying him if he’s injured. But isn’t it worth the chance to see if an 80% (I’m just guessing on that) Furcal is better than a 100% Angel Berroa, even despite Berroa’s recent improvement? So put Furcal out there. If he shows some semblance of his former self, then great – now you’ve improved a dangerous offense even further by putting him at the top of it and having the 8th spot be occupied by Blake DeWitt rather than Berroa. If it was too soon and he gets hurt again, the only effect is that you’re in the same position you’ve been in for months, which is not having his services. No downside there, to me.
* Also, I’d like to address this right off the bat, because I know everyone hates the Yankees and claims “East Coast bias!” and so on….
Yankees Senior VP Hank Steinbrenner isn’t all that impressed that Joe Torre has the Dodgers on the brink of the playoffs in his first season managing in L.A.
“I’m happy for Joe, but you have to compare the divisions and the competition,” the bombastic Baby Boss says in a guest column in the new Sporting News magazine, which hits newsstands this week.
“What if the Yankees finish the season with more wins than the Dodgers but the Dodgers make the playoffs? Does that make the Dodgers a better team? No.”
Hank is, believe it or not, absolutely right. Don’t forget, not only are the Yankees likely to end up with as many or more wins than the Dodgers, they’re doing it in what might be rightly called the toughest division in history. Don’t get me wrong; I’m not suggesting that the Dodgers politely decline a playoff invitation, and if they should win it all that flag’s not going to fly any lower because of the weak division they came out of. It’s just something that we all need to keep in mind – in any other division, the Dodgers are a third place team.
* Finally, a quick update on yesterday’s story about Hong-Chih Kuo, from the same article as the Furcal quote:
Hong-Chih Kuo played catch and said his ailing left elbow is responding well to treatment, but admitted that he didn’t know if he would be able to pitch in the postseason. Kuo, who has undergone four elbow surgeries, has pitched twice in the last three weeks.
Not good!
- Mike Scioscia’s tragic illness
It’s Time to Be Worried About Hong-Chih Kuo, Right?
September 23, 2008 at 10:30 am | In Hong-Chih Kuo | 15 Comments
It’s relatively common knowledge that Hong-Chih Kuo has been held out with “elbow soreness” for a while, but I didn’t realize until today that it’s now been 9 days since his last appearance. Not only that, he was terrible in it, giving up 4 hits and the game’s only run in the September 14th 1-0 extra inning loss to Colorado. Before that, it had been 7 days since he pitched, and 6 days before that. It’s September 23rd, and he’s only pitched three times this month, worrying that club enough that he was given an MRI last week on his jigsaw looking elbow.
Today, there’s this from Baseball Prospectus injury guru Will Carroll:
Rob Moore
Is Kuo going to contribute any more this year, or are you getting the feeling that he’s done?Will Carroll BP staff
Leaning to done.
You can’t overstate the impact Kuo has had on the Dodger bullpen this year. His ERA+ of 207 is second only to Joe Beimel, but unlike Beimel, Kuo is striking out more than a batter per inning (96 in 80 IP). More importantly, with a likely playoff berth looming, his domination of the Mets is legendary (I wrote about this in June, and it’s really worthwhile to go take a look at those stats again). He’s nearly as effective against the more likely matchup of Philadelphia and their lefty boppers of Howard and Utley, giving up just 2 hits over 8.1 scoreless innings. Losing a weapon like that could be crippling to what ought to be the Dodgers’ biggest strength in the playoffs, their bullpen.
On the other hand, that magic number is still stuck at 5. Let’s get into the playoffs first, shall we?
- Mike Scioscia’s tragic illness
Nothing Is F***ed Here, Dude
September 22, 2008 at 1:48 pm | In 1st Place!, Brad Penny, Jeff Kent, Rafael Furcal | 6 Comments
The Dodgers have won 16 out of their last 21. They’d won 6 series in a row before dropping 2 of 3 to San Francisco this weekend, and it could have very easy been 7 series in a row with just one well-placed groundball on Sunday.
So why’s everyone acting like the sky is falling? Just look at the headlines.
“Dodgers make pennant race interesting at the end”, Los Angeles Times.
“Dodgers lose game and precious ground”, Los Angeles Times.
“Dodgers’ NL West lead continues to shrink”, Los Angeles Daily News
“Any Dodgers pressing?”, Riverside Press-Enterprise
Yes, the Diamondbacks have played better lately. I get it, they’re not going to just completely give up and die. But let’s not act as though the Dodgers have reverted to the Little League outfit they became during that 8-game losing streak just yet, shall we? The odds are still squarely in the Dodgers favor – 94.7% to 5.3%, in fact, according to the latest Playoff Odds Report on Baseball Prospectus.
* Being as it’s an off-day, I’d like to continue what would be an epic jinxing by updating the playoff roster predictions I made earlier in the month. At the time, I included Brad Penny, Rafael Furcal, and Jeff Kent. We’ve got the latest news on the three, also from Baseball Prospectus and Will Carroll’s invaluable “Under the Knife” report:
The Dodgers seem ready to slide into the playoffs, but there’s as much work to be done by Stan Conte and his staff as there is for Joe Torre and his field staff. The Dodgers are waiting to see if they’ll have Kent and Furcal back, but putting either on the playoff roster would be a real gamble. Kent still can’t run, but can hit, giving LA scribes an easy comparison to Kirk Gibson. Torre, for his part, won’t commit to having Kent on the roster for the Division Series, with most indications being that Kent would be left off while continuing to rehab. The news isn’t as good with Furcal, who still has back problems, including pain shooting into his leg, after his back surgery. His addition to the lineup looks extremely unlikely, though he too will continue to rehab. A Kent/Furcal keystone combo is certainly better than what they had out there on Sunday (Blake DeWitt and Angel Berroa). The news is clearer on Penny—he’s done for the season after another cortisone injection in his pitching shoulder, and will be shut down.
The loss of Penny, combined with the news that Torre will in fact use 4 starters, means that I’m going to replace him with Greg Maddux, who I’d initially left off. I’m also going to say that either Furcal or Kent makes the roster, but not both, so as horrified as I am to entertain this possibility… you might actually see Pablo Ozuna out there. I know, I know. I just can’t see them going with Chin-Lung Hu over him, or ever allowing Delwyn Young to play second base again.
* Speaking of looking ahead, Cubs fans are already discussing who they might face in the playoffs. It’s starting to look almost certain that it won’t be the Dodgers, unless the Brewers turn it around and overtake the Mets for the wild card. The Chicago Tribune ranks the Dodgers #2 in terms of preferred opponents, harder than Arizona yet more preferable than New York or Philadelphia, saying:
Reasons to believe: Los Angeles was a sub-.500 team as recently as Sept. 2. For the season, the Dodgers rank 13th in the NL in runs and home runs. The injury to closer Takashi Saito unsettled the bullpen. Saito has returned, leaving Joe Torre to choose between Saito and Jonathan Broxton in save situations.
Causes for concern: No NL team has been hotter than the Dodgers, who have gone 16-4 since Aug. 30 as Manny Ramirez (above) and Andre Ethier have turned around a stagnant lineup. Derek Lowe is the hottest starter in the NL, going 5-1 over seven starts with a 1.14 ERA since Aug. 15. Torre’s teams have gone 16-9 in postseason series, winning four World Series.
Frankly, I’d rather play the Mets and their disaster-a-second bullpen than the Cubs, anyway. Cubs blog Wrigleyville23 looks at it another way…
All of the teams have bats, but pitching wise:
1. The Brewers are what they are, which is CC and a bunch of nothing if Sheets is hurt.
2. The Mets are Santana, Pelfrey and … absolutely no bullpen?
3. The Phillies are Hamels, Myers, Lidge and a bunch of crap.
4. And the Dodgers are way out there on the West Coast. Long way to fly.
I’m not sure whether to be pleased that other people think the Dodgers offense is suddenly on par with bashers like the Phillies and Brewers… or insulted that “pitching wise”, the biggest strength of the team that’s still leading the National League in ERA is flight time.
* This isn’t Dodger-related, but I couldn’t help but chuckle when I read it, regarding the Mets signing up with Buffalo to be their new AAA affiliate:
“Of all the organizations, I don’t know of one that is more baseball-oriented than the Mets,” Bisons president and owner Bob Rich Jr. said.
Because while the Mets focus on baseball, the Dodgers spend 20% of their time on their indoor volleyball team? The Cubs worry about their used-car dealership?
No game tonight. Let’s go Cardinals! Especially because I really like the picture I found for what would be magic number 4.
- Mike Scioscia’s tragic illness
Sunday Bloody Sunday
September 21, 2008 at 5:05 pm | In Uncategorized | 3 CommentsFirst off, let me begin with an unrelated note: I’d also like to personally send my Happy Birthday wishes to 
a great guy and bloggist, MSTI! My gift to you?
An article!
The downside? It had to come on one of the most craptastic days of the Dodgers’ season. So, it’s sort of akin to saying: “Happy Birthday! I bought you a car! Downside? The car is totaled!”
Or… “Happy Birthday! Guess what? I bought you a hooker! Oh yeah… she’s also 80… but she KNOWS things…”
Yes, I REALLY don’t want to talk about this afternoon’s horrible abortion of a game, so…
Hey, did you know the Dodgers won 10-7, last night? Manny hit 2 more HR’s, had 5 RBI’s, and while an ugly game, we won and reduced that magic number to 5!! YEAH!!
(tries to find another diversion)
Say friends, did you also know that, yesterday, the Dodgers activated Jeff Kent? You know, the one who just had knee surgery TWO weeks ago. He’s not actually really going to play, but he’ll be available in a pinch hitting role.
Yeah… so…
(crickets chirp)
Oh yeah! Did you know that, last week, Juan Pierre hit a H…
ARGH!! O.K….
As you can tell from the title of this article, I have started to grow… shall we say, disenchanted with Sundays? Perhaps this could explain why…
This time last week: lamenting over an extra inning 1-0 loss.
Today: throwing the neighbor’s cat over the fence… over an extra inning 1-0 loss.
Because of these misfortunes, be prepared for me and MSTI to go to Congress soon: that’s right, you heard it here first. We’re going to push to ban Sundays.
But, seriously, talk about a crushing loss today, and in many respects. While both losses were incredibly disappointing, this one bothers me a lot more, but there actually was some good. The first of which would have to be Derek Lowe. Lowe continues on his tear, going 7 scoreless innings, giving up 5 hits, walking 3 and striking out 7. Stellar outings have been mostly the norm for Derek Lowe lately, and I would outline just how effective he has been this year and throughout his entire Dodger career in general, but my partner in crime does a very good job of that, right here.
I would also be remiss not to give some props to Cory Wade, who came in and shut down the Giants for two innings. Wade has been incredibly effective this year and has been arguably the most reliable person in the entire bullpen. A very good story that doesn’t get the attention it should.
But that’s about all the good I can think of with this game… well, maybe that and being thankful that today’s game didn’t send James Loney into an asylum. When you look at the box score, you will note that it says Loney went 0-4, but it most other sane universes, that actually would have been 3-4, with at least a couple of RBI’s tagged on. Loney got completely robbed in his first 3 at-bats by the Giants defense, who felt that somehow we were in the 7th game of the World Series. In fact, many Dodgers fell victim to good defense today, but still, they had their chances. In particular, the 1st inning, when they were left scoreless in a bases loaded, 0 out situation. They also might have had a chance to get a run in if Larry Bowa hadn’t sent Angel Berroa home on a play when Manny Ramirez was going to be the hitter, where Berroa was thrown out. Yeah… nice one, Larry.
I could keep going, but, more than likely, you know the story. Great pitching and really poor hitting, mixed with some great defense from the other side. But the troubling thing to me is that, despite the Dodgers success lately, they have looked very lackluster throughout the past week, at least going back to the 2nd game of the Pittsburgh series. In other words, the wins that have been coming have been wins that they have had to battle for: a 4-3 12 inning victory on Thursday, an ugly 10-7 win on Saturday… against the Pirates and Giants. These should be beatdowns, but instead, the Dodgers drop their first series in almost a month to the lowly Giants. That’s really what’s so frustrating about this team, if you think about it. On one hand, they’ll go out and beat the crap out of Brandon Webb and Dan Haren twice in a week and flash what they’re capable of which, of course, gets our hopes of and maybe makes us start to believe in this team a little bit… then they’ll come back and do something bonehead like this. Losing a series to the Giants is simply inexcusable at any time at this point, but especially in late September. What’s scary about this is that this is the second straight series the Dodgers have dropped to them and with 6 games left remaining on the schedule, three of them are in San Francisco. Because of this, would I be surprised to see 1982 all over again? No, not at all. Nonetheless, they need to get their asses back in gear.
So the magic number remains at Choi. However, the consollation in all of this is that Arizona begins a four game set against the St. Louis Cardinals, a team they haven’t been too successful against. While they play St. Louis, the Dodgers will be off to San Diego to face a team they have handily beat, this year. So, the advantage lies in the Dodgers favor. The problem? Jake Peavy is pitching the first game.
Can we beat him, finally? Just once?
- Vin 
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