Welcome to the Playoff Roster, Jeff
September 27, 2008 at 12:30 am | Posted in Blake DeWitt, Delwyn Young, Jeff Kent, Pablo Ozuna, Scott Proctor | 16 Comments
Just in case there was any question left about whether Jeff Kent (or, as Vin likes to call him, “Anakent Baseclearer”, and since Vin made this excellent Photoshop, he can call him whatever he likes) was going to make the playoff roster, I’d say that’s about answered. Let’s do some math.
Kent playing the field on back to back nights + Kent crushing a ball into the left field seats + Torre being unlikely to let a veteran star go out on the sidelines = this man’s going to be a part of the final 25.
Speaking of the playoff roster, I’m going to make my final prediction from the original one I had made weeks ago. I’m making three changes – Brad Penny’s obviously not going to be there, I no longer have faith in Hong-Chih Kuo being there, and with both Kent and Nomar likely coming off the bench, that hopefully alleviates the “need” for Mark Sweeney.
Replacing Penny is going to be Greg Maddux. He was the hardest to leave off my list originally anyway, and that was before Torre said he’d “probably” use four starters if it went that far. Replacing Kuo? Believe it or not… Scott Proctor has probably forced his way onto the roster, because he’s been excellent since his return from the DL. I know – I was surprised too. But he was unscored upon in his first 7 outings (striking out 10 in 6.1 IP) until giving up one of the most bizarre home runs you’ll ever see tonight in San Francisco, and we all know he’s a Torre favorite. So he’s in too. As for the last spot… well, it’s anyone’s guess. Chin-Lung Hu or Pablo Ozuna for further infield depth? Delwyn Young for a switch-hitting bat off the bench? Sweeney for “veteranness”? I tend to think in such a short series, a 6th middle infielder isn’t really that important, and Sweeney just simply cannot hit. So it’s Young, right?
Well, not so fast, says Diamond Leung, and avert your eyes, because this is going to be horrifying:
Ozuna is now schedule to play in the outfield tomorrow, as he’s under consideration for the playoff roster due to his versatility.
You know, I was all ready to go into an epic rant about how bad Ozuna is and how much I’d rather see Young on the roster… but I just can’t. Contrary to what I had thought, Ozuna’s not just an infielder who’d made an emergency appearance in the outfield – he’s made 63 career appearances out there. And while I do think Ozuna is a big zero at the plate (career OPS+ of 76, and only 66 for LA), Young hasn’t been much better this year, with only a 71 OPS+. Now don’t get me wrong, because we’re still huge fans of Young’s around here (check out his crazy minor league stats in a post we made on him in June) and I think a huge reason for his lack of productivity is his sporadic at best playing time. But the playoffs are no time to work out the hitting kinks, and clearly he’s not a plus with the glove.
On the other hand, the fact that we’re even contemplating Ozuna for the postseason roster is completely mind-blowing considering that they thought so highly of him, they DFA’d him less than a month ago rather than waiting 4 more days for the rosters to expand. So who knows.
Which would make the roster like so:
C: Martin, Ardoin
IF: Loney, DeWitt, Furcal, Blake, Nomar, Kent, Berroa, Ozuna
OF: Manny, Kemp, Ethier, Pierre
P: Lowe, Billingsley, Kuroda, Kershaw, Maddux, Park, Beimel, Proctor, Wade, Broxton, Saito
As for where that team might be going… it’s really starting to look like Chicago, thanks to the Mets reprising their 2007 death spiral. The Phillies’ magic number is now down to 1, and the Brewers have won 5 straight to grab a 1 game lead in the Wild Card. So instead of getting to face a tired Mets or Phillies team, it looks like the Blue are going to have to face the well-rested best team in the League. Thanks, Mets!
I’d also like to ask a question: which scenario do you find more surprising? Blake DeWitt being the 2008 Opening Day third baseman… or Blake DeWitt (likely) being the starting second baseman in Game 1 of the NLDS?
- Mike Scioscia’s tragic illness 
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I would hope that the roster is what you said, with two exceptions: replace Maddux and Ozuna with Repko and Hu. Pierre is just not a viable defensive replacement. That throw to home in the 9th on that EXTREMELY SHALLOW pop fly to left was humiliating. And if we have an extra-inning game with a lot of strategic replacements, who do you want as your last option to play second base with a one-run lead, Ozuna or Hu? As for Maddux, I don’t believe he will start a Game 4 under any circumstances. I think Lowe goes on three days rest, and if there is an off day between Games 4 and 5, then Billingsley starts Game 5. So if Maddux isn’t going to start a game, what use is he on the roster?
Comment by The Dude Abides— September 27, 2008 #
Those are good points, but you’re replacing a hitter and a pitcher with two hitters. That’d leave them only 10 pitchers, and a team that spent most of the year carrying 12 isn’t going to do that.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— September 27, 2008 #
I watched last night’s game on the Gnats feed and Gripe (Krukow) noted that he didn’t remember a team going into the post-season with as many roster question marks as the Dodgers. His main emphasis was with Raffy and Kent coming off of the DL so late that they didn’t get an opportunity for any type of tune up, and that teams rarely use post-season games to work players into shape.
If we carry both, that has to affect other choices and IMHO Sweeney is a very poor fit as he is just too one-dimesional. That he is failing at that one dimension is another point.
Comment by kennerbuggy— September 27, 2008 #
In response to your question, I think it’d be more surprising to see Blake Dewitt be the starting third baseman next year because even though I feel he’s made huge strides offensively as well as being a rock over at third defensively, I can’t shake off the fact that Torre said Casey Blake was the “consummate professional who doesn’t complain about anything, he just goes out and plays ball.” He and Colletti sure love their veterans, and it wouldn’t be a horrible idea to let Blake Dewitt have a little more of an orientation to the big leagues instead of tossing him into the fire (again). Also under consideration is the question; will Jeff Kent retire after this season? It’s more likely Dewitt starts at second base next year.
Comment by FireCross— September 27, 2008 #
On the Blake DeWitt surprisometer question, one way of thinking about it would be to ask whether it was more surprising that both Andy La Roche and Nomar would be injured in spring training, or that something would happen to Jeff Kent close enough to the end of the season to prevent him playing.
To me, Nomar’s early injury was not a surprise at all, and though the manner in which La Roche went down was a bit freakish, it’s not that he hadn’t been on the DL already plenty in his short career to date…. so a potential problem at 3rd base before the get go was not that unpredictable.
I think what’s surprising is how well De Witt handled the situation n the first few months. It’s not like at the time he was on anyone’s radar as the next huge prospect to make it big. Once we saw he can play the game, and his attitude to the game, his now very likely shot to start at 2nd in the NLDS just seems ordinary to me.
Comment by CMG— September 27, 2008 #
The Dodgers can change their roster if they get past the first round, right? So, you can get away with ten pitchers in a short series if you only use three starters. Because of the extra off day between Games 4 and 5, you can use Lowe on three days rest for #4 and Chad on four days rest for #5. Because Raffy, Nomar, and Kent are physical question marks and Pierre is a totally unacceptable defensive replacement, I think you need to go with the extra two position players, and Hu is much better than Ozuna, and Repko gets used as a defensive replacement.
Comment by The Dude Abides— September 27, 2008 #
If they are going to keep Ozuna for defense, why not use Hu? Is it because Ozuna is old? Hu hasn’t shown he can hit a lick, but he is the best defender on the team.
Comment by Fire Ned Colletti Now— September 27, 2008 #
“IF: Loney, DeWitt, Furcal, Blake, Nomar, DeWitt, Berroa, Ozuna”
DeWitt is on there twice to make 25.
Comment by Kochilin— September 27, 2008 #
MSTI, do you know how many hits Furcal has had since coming back? Is there a chance he doesn’t make the roster because Torre thinks is timing still isn’t there?
Comment by FireCross— September 27, 2008 #
Abiding Dude:
I can see the argument for 10 pitchers, but carrying only 10 in my view is a big risk. It’s not just about what they do with starters… it’s not inconceivable that across the first couple games that Joe needs to go deep into the pen more than once. Even with the rest days, If Broxton, Saito, Wade, Beimel and the gang are all drawn on heavily in the first 2-3 games, and the Dodgers are still in it, the extra pitcher helps ease the worry if the starters can’t go deep in the later games. In the end, that might be a bigger consideration than what the extra position player buys us.
Comment by CMG— September 27, 2008 #
“IF: Loney, DeWitt, Furcal, Blake, Nomar, DeWitt, Berroa, Ozuna”
Kind of looks like he’s on there three times.
Comment by BlueMamma— September 27, 2008 #
You guys got me on the extra DeWitts – good eyes.
FireCross, I can’t see any way that Furcal doesn’t get on the roster, especially since he just got 2 hits tonight.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— September 27, 2008 #
Torre just might start Furcal every game.
Comment by Fire Ned Colletti Now— September 27, 2008 #
Kochilin – DeWitt’s name is on the list twice, b/c MSTI said Kent was going onto the revised list but left it off; therefore, DeWitt was put on there twice because of the inadvertant omission of Kent.
BlueMamma – where you see the name DeWitt on there 3 times is anyone’s guess. Unless you think that Blake is meant as Blake DeWitt (it’s not, it’s meant as Casey Blake, an entirely different person).
Comment by Gibby's Limp— September 27, 2008 #
Looks like we’re carrying 11 pitchers, with both Maddux and Kershaw on the roster. Also, no Repko, no Hu. Now I’m worried we’re going to carry BOTH Sweeney and Ozuna.
Comment by The Dude Abides— September 28, 2008 #
[...] a big surprise to see Pablo Ozuna make it, because as I said the other day… You know, I was all ready to go into an epic rant about how bad Ozuna is and how much I’d rather [...]
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