Fiddling While Rome Burns…

It’s not official yet, and I really ought to know better than to trust a word that Ken Rosenthal says by now, but this sure sounds pretty solid. Via MLBtraderumors, Rosenthal has this:

The Braves are on the verge of a major offseason upset.

Rafael Furcal is coming home.

In a stunning turnaround, the free-agent shortstop has chosen the Braves over the A’s, according to a major-league source.

A contract agreement is expected to be announced Tuesday, conditional on Furcal passing a physical.

87toppsrafaelfurcal.jpgThis one hurts, friends. Furcal was a bit overrated, I will grant. His red-hot April 2008 shouldn’t overshadow his missing the rest of the season or his injury-ruined 2007. But the main theme here is that he was by far the best of the available shortstop crop – and even moreso, all indications are that he badly wanted to return to Los Angeles. I’m not suggesting that the Dodgers should have made sure to be the highest bidder no matter what. I wouldn’t have felt very comfortable offering him four guaranteed years, not with his injury history, but the fact that he turned down what seems to be the only four-year deal he was offered indicates that being in a place that makes him happy is more important than that guaranteed fourth year. It also seems to say that Oakland may in fact be the worst place on the planet, though that’s another discussion entirely.

Now we’ll have to see about the money before we can completely judge this, but in this case it’s been the years that were the main sticking point. This deal with Atlanta sounds like a three year deal with a vesting option for the fourth based on playing time, while the Dodgers were only offering two years with a vesting option – and that’s not really an offer at all. When a guy is getting an offer of four guaranteed years, you have to do better than two to even pretend you made a competitive deal, especially when you know the player wants to come back; especially when your manager has said he’s the most important key to the offseason; and especially when you have no other good options to replace him. If it comes out that he’d have remained in LA had the Dodgers only increased their offer to three years, that’s going to be completely unacceptable. It’s a risk, but in this situation, it’s a risk you have to take, because the team without Furcal right now is a mess.

We’d been patient thus far, because it’s been a slow market, and as much as I would have liked CC Sabathia, I never expected the Dodgers to have an offer anywhere near to what the Yankees put together. None of the other guys that have signed (Burnett, Ibanez, etc.) were good fits for the Dodgers, and I applaud Colletti for refusing to give into Boras’ games with Manny.

But at some point you have to ask - when is Ned Colletti going to do something? Casey Blake as your biggest power threat is simply not going to work… and as much I hate to even consider the thought, without Furcal, there is a very real chance that we’re going to see either Juan Pierre leading off or Angel Berroa/Jack Wilson playing short – or both.

This team still needs a shortstop, a power bat, and at least one starting pitcher, and while there’s excuses to be made about why none of the good free agents are coming to Los Angeles, you eventually need to take a chance and get something done. If Omar Minaya can build a dominating 1-2 punch in his bullpen without spending a hideous amount of cash or his top prospects when everyone in the world knew the Mets needed help in the pen, why can’t Colletti show some creativity to fill our holes? That’s right, Ned. You just got compared to Omar Minaya and you’re not even looking good against him. No one wants another Andruw Jones/Jason Schmidt debacle… but Blake and Mark Loretta can’t be your crown jewels here, either.

Chan Ho Park Has Not Learned His Lesson

87toppschanhopark.jpgOh, Chan Ho Park. What are we going to do with you? You would think that after parts of 15 seasons in the bigs, you would have figured out what everyone else has – that you’ve got a sickness, and not even cowbell is the cure. Once acquired, Giovanni Cararra Disorder simply cannot be eradicated. Named for the three-stint Dodger reliever who put up a 2.71 ERA in Chavez Ravine yet was sufficiently awful enough everywhere else to finish with a 4.69 career ERA, there is only one known cure for this debilitating disease: not leaving the Dodgers when you’ve proven conclusively that you will only be successful in Dodger blue.

Put another way, not doing this:

Righthander Chan Ho Park said in a press conference in Seoul today that he has agreed to a 1-year contract with the Phillies.

According to the Korea Times, Park, 35, will have a base salary of $2.5 million with incentives that could push the total package to $5 million.

There had been reports that the Phillies were close to coming to terms with Park to improve their bullpen. However, the pitcher said he opted for the Phillies in part because they viewed him as a starter.

“I was a little worried about the Citizens Bank Park, the home of the Phillies, which is hitter-friendly,” he said. “But as they considered me a starter, I signed with Philadelphia.”

Might want to get the women and children out of the room, because this is going to be a car wreck. Chan Ho, let’s take a quick look at your career and try to connect the dots. Park first appeared in the bigs with two short cups of coffee in 1994 and ’95 – and in case you’re wondering just how old Park is, the Braves lineup he faced in his first game included Deion Sanders and Terry Pendleton, while the Dodgers behind Park featured Brett Butler, Tim Wallach, and Billy Ashley. In 1996, he made it up for good as a reliever and a spot starter before becoming a full time starter in 1997, and between ’96-’98 he was very effective, with ERA+ scores over 100 each year.

parkkicksbelcher.jpgAfter a eventful but unproductive year in 1999 (come on, a dropkick of Tim Belcher and allowing two grand slams in the same inning to Fernando Tatis have to be entertaining enough to outweight a 82 ERA+, right?), Park bounced back in 2000 and ’01 with two of the best years of his career, winning 33 games and striking out over 200 in each season, along with ERA+ scores of 133 and 113. Before the 2002 season, he signed a 5 year, $65 million contract with the Texas Rangers, who probably should have known better.

At this point, I can’t blame Park. The Rangers offered him a ridiculous amount of money, and really,  what’s the point of coming to America if you can’t sell yourself to the highest bidder? Sure, maybe going to the launching pad that is the Texas homefield isn’t the greatest idea, but what the hell.

Of course, it’s all downhill from here. Park lasted just three and a half miserable injury-prone seasons in Texas, never once posting an ERA below 5.46. In mid-2005 he was dealt to the Padres, which should have immediately helped him – because how could you possibly have more of an upgrade as a pitcher than going from the worst AL park in Texas to the best NL park in San Diego? Yet, somehow Park’s ERA rose after the deal, and he wasn’t much better in 2006. In fact, he was so bad that in 2007, all he could manage was a minor league deal from the Mets. What’s more depressing? That a Mets squad so desperate for starters that they went through 10 besides Park wouldn’t give him another shot after he gave up 7 runs in 4 innings in his only start of the year? Or that even in AAA, he could only put up a 5.57 ERA? At 34 years of age, if that doesn’t signify that your career is done, I don’t know what does.

But, deciding to give it one more shot, he came back to where it all began, agreeing to a minor league deal with the Dodgers for 2008. Believe it or not, the healing powers of Chavez Ravine worked their magic (or maybe he just really likes smog, who knows) and Park was, well, good. Better than good, in fact, because as a multi-inning reliever and occasional 5th starter, Park proved to be an incredibly valuable member of the pen. Over the first four months of the season, Park’s monthly ERA’s were 3.00, 1.93, 2.70, and 2.12. Of course, he went completely off a cliff in August and September with ERA’s of 6.00 and 6.54, which is worrisome for a pitcher of his age, but still – four solid months is about five more than I ever expected from him. And as usual, Park loved LA (2.18) while getting hit hard on the road (4.50). This falls just in line with his career numbers, in which he’s got a 2.96 career ERA in nearly 700 innings at Dodger Stadium, but has been so bad everywhere else that his career ERA is 4.34 overall. 

All of which is a long way of explaining the very simple equation: Chan Ho Park as a Dodger = good. Chan Ho Park as anything else = awful. One would think that after so much proof over and over, that at this point of his career you wouldn’t want to look a gift horse in the mouth, right? That not only would you never voluntarily leave Dodger Stadium again, that you’d have to be dragged kicking and screaming.

And on top of all that, you go to Philadelphia of all places – didn’t we learn this lesson about flyball pitchers in bandboxes in Texas? Park’s only pitched 9 innings in the new Philly park, which I’ll admit isn’t much of a sample size, but even then it didn’t go well, allowing 12 hits and 5 earned runs.

Hey, I wish him the best of luck after how much he helped us out this year. But old pitcher + faded down the stretch + long history of failure when not a Dodger + worst pitching park in baseball can’t possibly end well, can it? Seems as though Phillies blogs The Good Phight and Beerleaguer are a bit worried as well.

That said, I look forward to him throwing a 2-hit shutout when the Phillies visit Los Angeles.

Jason Repko Lives to See Another Day

As you’ve probably heard, the Dodgers non-tendered five players, making them free agents: Takashi Saito, Angel Berroa, Scott Proctor, Yhency Brazoban, and Mario Alvarez. Forget Alvarez and Brazoban, because Alvarez is a minor leaguer who’s injured (but hey, at least we let him eat up a roster spot while losing Wesley Wright to Houston) and Brazoban is a fat tub of injured goo who’s made it into 11 games over three years. So no big losses there, unless you count the only guy in the room who might have made Andruw Jones feel svelte.

As for Saito, Proctor, and Berroa, this doesn’t necessarily mean the end of them in Dodger blue – but it does mean that any team can now talk to them. For Berroa, that makes complete sense, because after the Dodgers declined his $5.5 million option (!!!) they would have had to offer him at least $3.8m because there’s only so much you can cut a player’s salary in his situation. Considering I don’t think Berroa’s worth $3.80, that’s a pretty easy decision. Proctor, well, you know that Joe Torre will do whatever he can to ensure he’s back. Hell, if Proctor signs with another team, I half expect Torre will quit and try to go get that job.

saito.jpgAnd then there’s Takashi Saito, who by some measures has been the best closer in baseball over the last three years. Just a bizarre situation all around, here. Usually you can look at a baseball or financial decision and draw comparision to similar choices in the past. But can you name any other soon-to-be-39 relievers who don’t have free agency rights who’ve dominated the opposition, yet choose to avoid elbow surgery with experimental injections of blessed pig’s blood? (Okay, it was stem cells.Whatever.) If the Dodgers decided it was time to part ways because of his injury, that’s fine – but they had offered him a contract that was deemed unacceptable by Saito’s agent, which sounds like they’re relatively confident he can pitch next year.

Usually, I’d attack the Dodgers for letting a valuable piece go over a relatively small amount of money, but not this time. Arbitrators like to look at fancy numbers, and Saito certainly has that. It’s not unreasonable to think that he might have received $5 million next year, and that’s too much to gamble on a guy who might never throw another pitch. It used to be that players who were non-tendered weren’t allowed to sign with their old teams before May 1, almost guaranteeing they wouldn’t return. Fortunately that’s no longer the case, so hopefully Saito won’t want to start over somewhere else at this stage in his career and we’ll see him come to an arrangement with the Blue.

But who did get tendered an offer? Jason Repko, of all people. Now I like Jason Repko, I do. It’s just odd to see a team make sure to keep a guy who gets injured at a level that’s Nomar-esque and has a career OPS+ of 76. Actually, Nomar-esque might be insulting to Nomar – Repko missed all of 2007 and has only 148 MLB at-bats in the last three seasons. That said, a .373 OBP in AAA this season is pretty tasty, and with a track record like his he can’t stand to make a lot in arbitration.

On the other hand, teams don’t usually offer arbitration to guys who they plan to keep in the minors all season long, and as we all know the Dodgers have a ton of outfielders, and possibly one more on the way. Maybe our prayers for getting rid of Jones or Pierre really will be answered!

I Do Not Believe What I Just Read

mlb_a_schmidt_300.jpgBill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times took a peek into the lawsuit that the Dodgers just filed against the insurance company refusing to pay out for Jason Schmidt (hey, remember him?) and came up with some pretty damning information: the Dodgers knew he was hurt when they signed him.

The Dodgers knew Jason Schmidt had a rotator cuff injury when they signed him to a contract worth a guaranteed $47 million, the club acknowledged in a court filing this week.

The Dodgers filed suit against the company that insured Schmidt’s contract, alleging failure to pay $9.27 million in claims. In the suit, filed Monday in U.S. District Court in Los Angeles, the Dodgers argue the torn labrum that required surgery and limited Schmidt to six games over two years was unrelated to the rotator cuff injury and thus covered by insurance.

Granted, a rotator cuff injury and a labrum tear are not the same thing and should not be treated as such. But I’m not sure what’s worse – the utter stupidty of giving nearly $50 million to a 34-year-old pitcher who already had one season cut short in 2000 by surgery on his rotator cuff and labrum and who you already know has a rotator cuff injury… or lying about it?

USA Today, June 21, 2007:

Colletti insisted there was no sign of any damage when the Dodgers inspected Schmidt in the offseason before making their contract offer.

“No sign of any damage”, you say. Except for, you know, the signs of damage you just admitted to in a court filing.

This is just unbelievable. As I’ve said many times, I hate it when 90% of these posts turn out negative, and I fully understand that every GM, no matter how good or bad, is always going to have some deals that just don’t work out that well. It happens. I get it. But to give that kind of money to a pitcher when you know that he’s hurt – well, just because it wasn’t precisely that injury that made his arm give out doesn’t make it right. That’s not stupidity, that’s negligence.