The Distant Future… the Year Two Thousand… (Nine.)

January 31, 2009 at 9:09 am | Posted in baseball prospectus | 7 Comments

Finally, a bright point in this long, cold, and particularly boring offseason: Baseball Prospectus has released their 2009 PECOTA projections. There’s a lot of different projection systems out there, but BP‘s are almost always more accurate than anyone else’s. (I particularly enjoyed their predictions of the fall of the 2007 White Sox on the nose, and the larger amount of faith in the 2008 Rays than anyone else.)

Since this is a pay service, I won’t out-and-out post the spreadsheet here. But what I will do is point out some very interesting things that stand out related to the Dodgers.

Which Mediocre Starter Should Get Signed?
Wolf: 133 IP, 1.40 WHIP, 4.50 ERA, 14.1 VORP
Looper: 125.2 IP, 1.39 WHIP, 4.62 ERA, 9.2 VORP

And In the Outfield?
Dunn: .262/.396/.541 36hr 34.6 VORP
Manny: .295/.391/.538 30hr 49.0 VORP
Abreu: .282/.368/.436 13hr 20.8 VORP

More evidence that if we don’t get Manny, I strongly prefer Dunn over Abreu.

Notable MLB Position Rankings by VORP?
Martin: 5th, behind Wieters, McCann, Soto, Mauer
Loney: 17th, above Youkilis, C.Pena, Helton
DeWitt: 24th as a 3B. This score would get him 22nd at 2B, tied with Iwamura
Blake: 21st, above Rolen and Mora, but behind Mat Gamel and Brett Wallace
Furcal: 7th, above Jeter, Tejada, Young, Tulowitzki
Kemp: 5th among CF! above Hamilton, Granderson, Upton
Ethier: 3rd among RF! above Bruce, Pence, Markakis, Ordonez
Billingsley: 13th among SP, above F.Hernandez, Sheets, C.Zambrano, Lee, Cain
Kershaw: 38th, above Lilly, Slowey, Dice-K, Lester

Surprisingly Good!
Tony Abreu, after barely playing for two years: .261/.314/.377 7.6 VORP
Ivan DeJesus, despite not making it to MLB yet: .269/.338/.346 14.3 VORP

Surprisingly Bad!
Jason Repko, after a good year in AAA: .210/.284/.332 -14.4 VORP

7 Comments »

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I was thinking about buying it how does it compare to BP?

Comment by Damon— January 31, 2009 #

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I was thinking about buying the book how does it compare to BP?

Comment by Damon— January 31, 2009 #

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WHY, OH WHY IS RUSSELL MARTIN BEHIND MATT WIETERS WHO HASN’T PLAYED A DAY IN THE MAJOR LEAGUES?! I would understand (albeit, not entirely) if Wieters came up and tore up the league during a September call-up but seriously?
Great rankings on Kemp and Ethier though! Hopefully we can ride these guys back into the playoffs in 2009!

Comment by Firecross— January 31, 2009 #

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1 – You mean the Graphical Player book? You should buy it! It’s got a completely different statistical look than BP.
3 – I agree that it’s probably a little agressive for Wieters, but just about everything I’ve read says he’s the best hitting catcher prospect in years. He did absolutely dominate the minors last year.

Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— February 1, 2009 #

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Hey MSTI, how’s your site doing on the “Most recommended posts” thing? Are you still among the top, or are your fans being remiss in recommending your posts?

Comment by The Jerk— February 1, 2009 #

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5 – yes! The last two posts are the two most recommended on the site. Much appreciated. If you wanted to keep hitting ‘recommend’ whenever there’s a new post… I certainly would not be against that.

Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— February 2, 2009 #

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Baseball HQ has a much higher projection for Tony Abreu. BP and HQ are the two publications I rely on the most for predicting future performance so it is cool they both like him. Who gets hurt 1st, Blake the old guy or Tony the young guy who can’t stay healthy?

Comment by TrueBlue— February 2, 2009 #

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