So, What’s Really Going On Here?

Just when you think this story couldn’t possibly get any weirder (and more annoying)…

1) The Offer. On Wednesday, as you surely remember, the Dodgers put forth offer #4 to Manny Ramirez: two years at $45 million ($25m in 2009, $20m in 2010), with 2010 being a player option. This seemed like a great solution to this problem for both sides, because while the Dodgers were clearly overpaying, they kept it down to just two years (maybe even just one), and Manny gets an increase over his Boston options plus the ability to walk if he thinks he can get more elsewhere. I was in favor of it, Tony Jackson said “This is a good deal for both sides”, and ESPN’s Jayson Stark said that this is the best offer that Manny’s going to get. Plus, Scott Boras had made the request that year 2 be a player option, so why would he reject an offer he’s helping to craft? This was going to be the one that got it done.

2) The Rejection.

Jackson:

Apparently, a man who is having trouble finding work in a down economy has decided, yet again and with the help of his ever-so-earnest agent, that playing baseball for a year for $25 million or two years for $45 million is somehow beneath him.

3) MSTI’s Initial Reaction Upon Groggily Seeing the Email From Josh Rawitch This Morning Noting Manny Had Declined the Offer. “What! Are you f*#%ing kidding me! What the f*#^ more does he want! There’s no other team in the bidding! This is the worst economy in decades and being offered five times what Bobby Abreu got isn’t enough!? F*#&!! I’m so sick of Manny, just screw him and move on, but oh wait, we can’t because Abreu and Adam Dunn are both gone, and if Juan Pierre is playing left field every day I’m going to kill myself. And, Boras had requested the player option and he got it! So why is he rejecting the offer now! I can’t take this!”

And that, friends, is why I do not blog before coffee.

4) Frank McCourt’s Attempt at a Public Bitch Slap.

Dodgers press release, from Dodger Thoughts:

“We love Manny Ramirez,” said Dodgers Owner Frank McCourt, “And we want Manny back, but we feel we are negotiating against ourselves.  When his agent finds those ‘serious offers’ from other clubs, we’ll be happy to re-start the negotiations.

“Even with an economy that has substantially eroded since last November, out of respect for Manny and his talents, we actually improved our offer.

“So now, we start from scratch.”

The “serious offers” quip is obviously referring to Boras’ comment after the initial 2/$45m offer that he’d be looking forward to “serious offers” from other clubs. It’s pretty rare that you see such a public airing of dirty laundry here, but with Boras being so stubborn despite the generous offer in a lousy economy, you have to feel where McCourt is coming from, right?

Um, right?

5) Hold On, What Now?

Dylan Hernandez:

Reporting from Scottsdale, Ariz. — The Dodgers offered Manny Ramirez a two-year, $45-million contract that included a player option to void the second year.

Ramirez’s agent, Scott Boras, countered by proposing a two-year, $45-million contract that included a player option to void the second year.

Kudos to Hernandez here, because it’s not often I read the first two lines of a newspaper article and have my head explode like the guy from “Scanners”. But what in the hell would make Boras reject an offer he helped to craft – and then respond with the same offer? Well, as Hernandez tells us, it’s not the same:

What Colletti didn’t mention, the source said, is that most of Ramirez’s salary would’ve been deferred. Two other sources previously told The Times that the proposed deal included deferred payments.

Under the terms of the contract that Ramirez was offered by the Dodgers on Wednesday, he would’ve received $10 million this year. And by exercising the option for the second year, he would’ve received $10 million in 2010.

Ramirez, who turns 37 in May, would’ve been paid the remaining $25 million over the next three years without any added interest. He would’ve received $10 million in 2011, $10 million in 2012 and $5 million in 2013.

Well, there’s that. So if I’m reading this correctly, Boras has actually come down off his crazy 4/$108m demands, and he’s even accepted that three years are unlikely, and he’s willing to accept the Dodger terms of 2/$45m. He even offered that to you, Mr. McCourt. You’ve beaten Scott Boras at his own game, but now you’re trying to turn it into a rout by demanding he accept some of the money later? Look, I know we’re talking about figures that are silly money for most people, but for god’s sake, pay the man! Deferring that much money at zero interest means that the value of the deal isn’t actually $45 million – it’s some amount less. (How much? I don’t know, I’m not freaking Alan Greenspan over here. It’s less.)

And after I actually backed your strongly worded press release. You know what? I hate both sides right now.

6) As Usual, Bill Plaschke Has His Head Up His Ass.

This doesn’t really add to the Boras/McCourt dynamic, but it is fun to see that Plaschke’s woefully behind the curve of the ”deferred payment” story, even when a reporter at his own paper has the information:

This week, by every stretch of the wildest imagination, the Dodgers made Manny Ramirez a no-lose proposition.

By rejecting it Thursday, Ramirez has officially lost it.

He’s lost his dignity. He’s lost his perspective. He’s lost his marbles.

7) So, Now What (AKA, Now There’s a Deadline?)

Well, Barry Bloom is reporting that Boras says negotiations will continue today, but that there’s a 12pm noon Pacific deadline, which is approximately four hours from the time I hit ‘submit’ on this post. Right. Like they’re really going to cut off all contact in four hours – the Dodgers aren’t going to shut the door on the power bat they desperately need with no better options out there, and Boras isn’t going to cut off his only confirmed bidder.

Clearly, this isn’t the end of this story for today. But while I still believe that Manny ends up back in LA sooner or later, he’s no longer the only one looking greedy. Everyone attached to this debacle is looking bad right now.  

Dodgers Finally Agree to Terms With ex-Red Sox Free Agent!

Uh, no. Not him. Via MLBtraderumors:

According to Tony Jackson of the Los Angeles Daily News, the Dodgers have agreed to terms with Doug Mientkiewicz on a minor league contract.

Mientkiewicz will join spring training camp once he passes a physical.  He’s no Manny Ramirez, but, as Jackson writes, he “might have a good chance of making the club to fill that role that Nomar Garciaparra filled last year.” 

dougie.jpgWait, wasn’t Mark Loretta brought in to fill the role that Nomar had last year? You know, play several different infield spots, mash lefties. Except that Loretta was going to actually stay upright long enough to do it.

Again, “minor league contract”, so that’s fine, but I guess I don’t totally see the point here. Eyechart (best nickname – think about it, and there’s no way I’m writing out “Mientkiewicz” every time) is a superb defensive first baseman, to the point where he’s also seen time at 2B, 3B, and RF in his career. That’s nice and all, but I don’t think that James Loney really needs a defensive caddy, and while Casey Blake might, Doug was rated at an awful 17.9 runs below average (over 150 games) by FanGraphs for his work at 3B last year.

He’s actually a better hitter than I’d thought he was, especially for a guy who’s been on 6 teams in the last 5 years, with a career OPS+ of exactly 100 – average, and he has almost no discernable lefty/righty split (just .009 in OPS apart over his career). So it’s not that he’s a bad player, because an excellent defensive 1B who’s not awful at the plate isn’t a bad piece. The question is really more one of roster composition.

Think about it: the 4 infield starters are accounted for and Loretta is a lock. Assuming Manny comes back, he’s a starter along with Kemp and Ethier, with Pierre and at least one other outfielder (Young/Repko/etc) around. Add in Ausmus, and you’ve got 4 bench spots already spoken for (Ausmus/Loretta/Pierre/OF). Now, if the team is going to carry 12 pitchers (which I’m always strongly against, but they seem to prefer) you’ve only got one more spot. It seems to me that the biggest hole there is middle infield, partially because of the depth this team has at that spot and partially because both Furcal and Hudson are coming off of injuries. Sure, Loretta’s there, but wouldn’t you think we’d also need to see a Tony Abreu/Blake DeWitt/Chin-Lung Hu type? That has to be more important than adding a backup first baseman when the starter played 161 games last year.

Now, if the club does decide to carry only 11 pitchers then I could see this, but they never seem to do that. Again, a minor-league contract for a solid player isn’t a big problem in the long run; we’ll just have to see how the roster shakes out for this.

Now THIS Is Happening

 

mannyruns.jpgI’m basically near my computer nonstop all day, and I step away for two hours, and what do I come back to? Well, other than 38 new messages on the “Re-sign Manny” thread on the Big Blue Wrecking Crew, which immediately give me the idea that something was up, Tony Jackson has some details:

From what I understand, though, there WON’T be a deal tonight. The offer is a two-year, $45 million contract, with salaries of $25 million the first year and $20 million the second, but the second year is a PLAYER option so Manny can walk away if he believes he can get more on the open market next winter. If he is injured during the first season, the second year becomes guaranteed. Boras and Co. have taken it under advisement, and the club is expecting a response early tomorrow.

If this is true: wow, because this would be a brilliant deal for the Dodgers. We were all thrilled with the one year offer, would be happy with a two year deal, and would probably begrudgingly accept a third year.

Really, unless Manny suffers a serious injury in the first year, there’s no downside here. We get him prepared to mash in 2009, motivated to hit the market again in 2010. If the economy hasn’t rebounded, we get him for $5 million cheaper in year 2, but still motivated because he’ll be in another contract year. And then, we can see how age has eroded his skills (especially on defense), and let him walk just in time for Andrew Lambo to take over!

Love this. Now, can we please get this done? Please?

 

So THAT’S How They Make Them Do Sprints

domokundodgers.jpg

* Stats blog Driveline Mechanics ponders the question: Do the Dodgers now have the best double-play combo in the NL? As you know, I wasn’t a huge fan of the Hudson signing, so I’ll be predictably tenative on that question. Right off the top of my head, I’m assuming that there’s no way that our boys are beating the fantastic Utley/Rollins combo in Philly or the huge bats of Uggla/Ramirez in Florida. And the survey says… middle of the pack. That sounds about right.

Another step in MSTI’s inevitable takeover of the web: I answered some Dodger preview questions for Cardinals blog C70 At the Bat. This did take place before Torre said that Casey Blake would not be moving to the oufield, but I think I ended up talking way more about Juan Pierre than I’d ever really care to.

* Jon Heyman vs. Buster Olney on Manny: Fight!

Heyman:

The Dodgers probably know that their offers of $45 million over two years or $25 million over one year aren’t going to get it done, either.

Olney:

The free-agent market collapsed after the signings of CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Mark Teixeira, to the point that productive veterans like Bobby Abreu and Orlando Hudson have been forced to accept a salary for about 20-25 percent of what they had hoped for when the winter began.

And yet by the end of this week, the Dodgers might wind up signing Manny Ramirez to a multiyear deal far above market value. A really, really good contract for a 36-year-old star outfielder in the current market is for $15 million or $16 million a year — and yet the Dodgers might be poised to offer Ramirez $20 million to $25 million for a couple of years.

[snip]

That’s a little nuts. No, that’s really nuts.

* Finally, maybe we shouldn’t underestimate Scott Boras, because though the ever-brilliant The Onion is clearly joking about getting Manny $20 billion (with a “b”) in stimulus money… you could almost see it happening, couldn’t you?  

Screw It, Why Stop Now

If the signing of Orlando Hudson signals anything, it’s this: Ned Colletti is in complete win-now mode. Why else would you give up a first round draft choice for a player who might only be here for one season? While I continue to be disappointed with the signing for all the reasons I discussed previously, I do realize that this might actually make the Dodgers a better team in 2009 – and that’s clearly Colletti’s only goal here, with the possibility of his job being on the line if this season doesn’t go well.

So with that pesky “first round draft pick” out of the way, why not go for broke? With so many teams completely out of money, the Dodgers might as well be the Yankees of the late winter signing season. Unfortunately, there’s no one out there who’d improve the team’s biggest weakness right now – the starting rotation – so let’s improve what we can.


juan_cruz-215x300.jpgLet’s start by signing Juan Cruz.
 His Type A status is scaring away teams who don’t want to give up a first round pick for a reliever, but the Dodgers no longer have that problem. While it would mean giving yet another pick to the Diamondbacks, surrendering a second rounder somewhere in the 50s is much more palatable than the 17th pick, and it would take away one of our main competition’s top relievers.

Cruz has been dominant the last two years, putting up ERA+ scores of 152 and 176 in a setup role and racking up huge strikeout numbers (158 in 112.2 IP). He does walk more than you’d like (about one every other inning), but it’s not easy to find a guy who can miss bats like that. FanGraphs has him as adding 1.2-1.3 wins next year, which may not sound like much, but is pretty impressive considering he’s merely a relief pitcher.

It’s well-known Colletti is still looking for a reliever; Cruz is clearly the best one out there. Now that we no longer have to worry about giving up a first round pick for him, why not go get him?

(Yes, I know of the reports that Cruz is closing in on a sign-and-trade deal with Minnesota. It hasn’t happened yet at the time of this writing, so there’s still time to act.)


joebeimel.jpgThen bring back Joe Beimel
. Yes, I know his mediocre peripherals don’t exactly support his ERA – he doesn’t strike out a lot of people, and his WHIP is merely average. So when there were reports earlier in the off-season that he was looking for three year deals, I was happy to say goodbye. But the market for lefty relievers has bottomed out so hard that the only confirmed offer I can find for him is a minor league proposal from the Rangers. Look, Beimel isn’t as great as his ERA makes him look, but he’s still been very reliable in LA, pitching in 83 and 71 games the last two seasons while only allowing one long ball. If he’s going to come as cheaply as it sounds, why not toss out a one year, one million dollar offer to bring him back? 

How tasty would a foursome of Hong-Chih Kuo & Beimel from the left side and Cory Wade & Cruz from the right side be in front of Jonathan Broxton? Now that’s a bullpen, and we haven’t even considered Ramon Troncoso, James McDonald, or Scott Elbert. It’d also serve to further prove how foolish the Guillermo Mota signing was, but I’d take that bullpen any day.

Finally, bring back Manny. This is a little different situation, of course, because I do believe that the Dodgers have been completely thorough in their efforts to bring him back. Theoretically progress has been made, with Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times reporting that:

On the phone and in newsprint, the Dodgers’ negotiations with Manny Ramirez are intensifying.

Colletti said he has spoken “much more” to Ramirez’s agent, Scott Boras, over the last seven days than in any previous one-week period since they opened talks in November.

“The conversations are more frequent and longer,” said Colletti, who wouldn’t say if the increased dialogue is a sign of progress. “Days are ticking off the calendar.”

Talking is a good sign, at least. I wouldn’t dare put a date on Manny’s return, but it’s still more likely than not he’s coming back. At some point. We hope. If you’re in your “go for it” year, then you simply cannot downgrade from Manny Ramirez to Juan Pierre in left field. That’s akin to trading out Jessica Alba for Cloris Leachman in a bikini contest.

In the meantime, at least the back-and-forth between Boras’ lunacy and Colletti’s frustration is pretty entertaining:

[Boras] pointed out that the Dodgers’ most important free-agent signings of the winter, Rafael Furcal and Casey Blake, were already on the club when it acquired Ramirez in a three-way trade involving the Boston Red Sox and Pittsburgh Pirates. The Dodgers were a game under .500 at the time.

But Colletti disagreed that the team would revert to its pre-Ramirez form if it failed to re-sign the All-Star outfielder.

“Pretty much the same team?” Colletti said. Colletti continued sarcastically, “Casey Blake was playing back then, right? Furcal played almost every day, right?”

Blake, who was acquired from the Cleveland Indians in a midseason trade, didn’t play his first game with the Dodgers until July 26. Furcal was sidelined from May 6 to Sept. 23 because of a bulging disk in his back that required surgery.