Help Chad Billingsley Buy a Home Where There’s No Ice

March 8, 2009 at 1:30 pm | Posted in Chad Billingsley, Jon Lester, Scott Baker | 14 Comments

While we’ve mentioned it from time to time here, one of the most criminally underreported stories about the Dodgers is the need to get some of these young players locked up to long-term deals that at least buy out a few arbitration and free agent years. Not a single one of the young Dodgers crop (arbitrarily defined as Russell Martin, Matt Kemp, James Loney, Andre Ethier, Chad Billingsley, and Jonathan Broxton) is signed on more than a year-to-year basis. At least with Martin, we know the team has tried to approach him in the past about such a deal, only to be rebuffed by his agent. Earlier this winter, we found that he’d changed agents and was open to a long-term deal, but we’ve heard no progress on that front lately.

But I understand about some of those players. You’d like to see if Loney is the slugger we saw in short bursts in 2006 and 2007, or the somewhat underwhelming player we saw in 2008. You’d like to see if Broxton can handle the full-time closing duties, and you’d like to see if Kemp’s going to take another step forward in his development to really harness that raw talent he has. Fine. However, can we at least agree that we’re 100% sure that Chad Billingsley is someone we’re going to want to keep around for a while? Nothing’s as valuable as young pitching, and Billingsley’s been an above-average pitcher since the day he first set foot on a major league mound at 21 years old. In the three seasons since, he’s become the ace of the staff and improved his ERA and K and BB rates each season – plus, he’s still just 24.

He’s good, he’s young… and he’s on the verge of arbitration. Now, I first mentioned this in January when Kansas City signed Zack Greinke to a four-year deal, shortly after Phillies ace Cole Hamels received a three-year deal of his own. Today, we’ve got two other data points to go on. First, from Boston, courtesy of Yahoo!:

Boston Red Sox left-hander Jon Lester, who overcame cancer to become one of the best pitchers in the American League, has agreed to a five-year, $30 million contract extension with a $13 million team option in 2014, a source close to the team told Yahoo! Sports.

And previously out of Minnesota, ESPN has:

Right-hander Scott Baker has agreed to a $15.25 million, four-year deal with the Minnesota Twins.

Baker went 11-4 with a 3.45 ERA in a career-best 28 starts last season. The 27-year-old is 28-24 with a 4.23 ERA in four seasons, all with the Twins.

Minnesota announced the deal on Saturday. It also includes a $9.25 million club option for the 2013 season.

Let’s bring back the chart from last time and add on Lester and Baker:

Pitcher	Yrs/$	’09 Age	Service	Yrs Bought	IP	ERA+	Extra Credit…
Hamels	3/$20.5m	25	2.143	3 arb-eligible	543	133	married Survivor babe
Greinke	4/$38m	25	4.057	2 arb, 2 FA	658.2	105	missed ’06 w/anxiety
Lester	5/$30m	25	2.072	1 free,3 arb,1 FA	354.2	123	overcame cancer
Baker	4/$15.25m	27	2.128	3 arb, 1 FA	453	101	1 day older than MSTI
Billingsley	–	24	2.110	arb starts 2010	437.2	132	broke leg in November

These latest two comps are even more helpful, because Baker and Lester have accumulated a very similar amount of service time to Billingsley. Remember, while it does seem out of place that Greinke – arguably the fourth-best pitcher on this list – got a higher per-year average than anyone else, remember that he had to be bought out of two years of free agency, while no one else gave up more than one.

In fact, the Lester contract (which also contains a $13m team option for 2014) is the best comparison to Billingsley of all. Like Billingsley, Lester made his debut in 2006, and while the cancer scare set him back, he truly stepped up in 2008, going 16-6 with a 144 ERA+. Lester’s made just nine fewer career starts than Chad has, and even their career WHIP’s are eerily close – 1.393 for Lester, 1.401 for Billingsley, with each improving from their rookie seasons. Lester’s also a great comp because he’s in a similar situation to Billingsley in terms of service time and not being arbitration-eligible until 2010.

A quick spin around the blogosphere reveals that most Red Sox fans are jumping for joy at this announcement, seeing it as a fairly-priced deal for one of their young stars, while also giving the team cost certainty and allowing Lester to be set for life.

So I ask you this, Dodger fans. If the Dodgers announced tomorrow that they’d signed Billingsley to this exact deal of $30m over the next five seasons with a team option for year six, how would you feel about it? I know I’d be thrilled. Can we make this happen, say, now-ish?

14 Comments »

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27? Are you kidding me? Damned whippersnapper!
Regarding your point, I hope that the Brand gets it’s collective head out of their rectal orifice and gets this done. I don’t think I can blame Neddie, from his talk he would love to get these kids signed.

Comment by grabarkewitz— March 8, 2009 #

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I would be fine with that deal. But I understand why they’d be hesitant to give him huge money so soon. He flat out choked in the playoffs. I think Billingsley is a stud, and in time he, and Clayton Kershaw will be winning plenty of playoff games.
James Loney, Matt Kemp and Jonathan Broxton all have more to prove before the Dodgers make any offers.
I think Russell Martin and Andre Ethier are the most deserving of long-term deals.
In the end, I think Frank McCourt wants to pay as little as possible for players, so going year to year makes a little sense, until the next young stud is ready.

Comment by Bluboy— March 8, 2009 #

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He was, admittedly, lousy in the playoffs, but I have a hard time calling a guy that young in his first real playoff experience, while pushing his arm past any previous innings limit, a “choker”. That series really has no bearing on my opinion of him.

Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— March 8, 2009 #

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Going year to year with the arb-eligible players will actually cost McCourt more money. Taking the risk of locking up young players now will get them at prices below what they will end up getting through arbitration.
If Billingsley has any kind of season at all (say 15 wins, plus an ERA under 4.00) he will likely make over $4 million in 2010 through arbitration, just based on comps.
No seasonal details of the Lester contract are out yet, but over on TBLA I assumed it to be roughly:
3rd year – $500k
1st arb yr – $3.5m
2nd arb yr – $5.5m
3rd arb yr – $8.5m
1st FA yr – $11m
2nd FA yr – $13m option ($1m buyout) — this amount has been reported, but I assumed the buyout
The sooner you lock up the young guys the better.

Comment by Eric Stephen— March 8, 2009 #

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Correction — Chad was pretty damn good against the Cubs. He just happened to screw the pooch against the Phillies.

Comment by The Dude Abides— March 8, 2009 #

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Chad did choke against the Phillies. Like I said, I think that Bills and Kershaw will win plenty of playoff games in the future.

Comment by Bluboy— March 8, 2009 #

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You’re right, signing these guys up long-term now would save the McCourts money in the long run. The point I was trying to make was that the McCourt’s would move on to the next young up and coming player once the last one became too expensive. Or trade them.

Comment by Bluboy— March 8, 2009 #

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Thanks, Eric. Looks like we were writing a similar post at basically the same time.
5/$30 would be fantastic… but I think we both know nothing’s going to happen on this front any time soon.

Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— March 8, 2009 #

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The one thing we have to keep in mind, the Brand is leery of long term contracts of more than three years. That has been their modus operandi over the past couple years (well since they gave the keys to Drew’s trust fund to Slap). Even though it saves money and builds trust, the Brand seem to slow to figure out the basics.
If it is my money, I am throwing five year deals at both Martin and Billz. It makes good sense and shows good financial sense. Let’s hope that the Brand’s OJT is showing some fruit.

Comment by grabarkewitz— March 8, 2009 #

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More on Manny
http://tiny.cc/manny_ramirez

Comment by Dale Andersen— March 8, 2009 #

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Billingsley’s performance in the playoffs doesn’t bother me at all. He was great against the Cubs, which was a good matchup for him, and was terrible against the Phillies, which was a terrible matchup for him.
I’m not exactly shocked. I think he was pitching pretty much the same, but since the compositions of the lineups were different, he struggled more.
The Dodgers beat a superior Cubs team because their pitching matched up perfectly with righty heavy Cubs.

Comment by kensai— March 8, 2009 #

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Thanks for encouraging me to waste my time with that link.

Comment by Mike— March 8, 2009 #

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#10:
. . . and thanks especially for trolling around posting it on every Dodger site you can find.

Comment by Not Dale Andersen— March 9, 2009 #

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But what if Chad wants his soft drinks served cold?

Comment by SoSG Sax— March 9, 2009 #

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Mike Scioscia's tragic illness