Monthly Archives: March 2009

Going From Bad to Worse?

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Out with the old…

Schmidt out of running for fifth starter’s spot

Joe Torre made that pronouncement BEFORE today’s game, which means before Jason took the mound. The rationale is that Schmidt’s pitch count isn’t progressing and that he needed the extra day off between starts. He isn’t expected to throw more than 35-40 pitches today, roughly the same number he threw last Monday against Texas.
“I would say at this juncture … there is no way we can count on him for that right now, just because of the fact we are in that period of less than three weeks until opening day.”

And in with the… also old?

martinez_p.jpgWhile the Dodgers may be the most likely landing spot for Cooperstown-bound pitcher Pedro Martinez, the Mets can’t quite be ruled out yet. The Dodgers’ situation at the back end of their rotation may actually be even more dire. “We need another starter,” one Dodgers official said, flat out.

Right now Eric Milton, Claudio Vargas and James McDonald are among several candidates for the Dodgers’ No. 5 starting job, but 20-year-old phenom Clayton Kershaw, who’s penciled in to one of the four certain spots, so far is still “hit and miss,” according to another Dodgers official. The Indians and Pirates are known to be two more teams monitoring Pedro’s progress, and agent Fern Cuza said there are a couple others in the mix after Pedro looked great in three innings in the World Baseball Classic, but a person close to Martinez said that he would favor the National League and is insistent on playing for a contender, which may mean it’ll come down to the Dodgers and Mets.

I did say the other day that I wasn’t all that interested in the idea of Pedro’s return from a baseball perspective, because I think he’s hardly the solution to the our problems. The fanboy in me would still be entertained, but how sad is it that he’s rapidly becoming the best solution to this hole?

(P.S., Free James McDonald. There, I said it.)

Save Delwyn Young!

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For a variety of reasons, Delwyn Young (or “Panda” or “Pee Wee”, to some) has always been an unsung hero of this blog. I suppose part of it is that you always have to have a soft spot for a local guy who grew up a Dodger fan, and part of it is that I’ll always love a guy who can bust out a good reference to The Sandlot. However, a big part of it is also that despite putting up huge numbers in the minor leagues, he’s never gotten even a fraction of the hype the rest of the young Dodger contingent has – despite my best efforts. We’ve been talking up Delwyn around here as far back as 2007, and even gave him his own “Free Delwyn Young!” campaign in June 2008, where I pointed out that:

I’m not exactly sure why he’s gotten such short thrift in the “hyping prospects” department. I mean, the kid has hit everywhere he’s played.

Delwyn Young, 6 minor league seasons (5 full seasons)
BA: .303
OBP: .359
SLG: .512
Seasons w/ 10+ HR: 6
Seasons w/ 30+ doubles: 5
Seasons where he broke a 41-year-old PCL record for doubles: 1 (2007)

Look at the line he put up in AAA last year: .337/.384/.571 and a .955 OPS. 54 doubles.

Sure, he was a lousy second baseman turned into a mediocre outfielder, and his MLB OPS+ of 75 in 2008 didn’t do much for him – though I would point out that having a 26 year old player with 39 career at-bats entering the season spend the entire year on the bench as a pinch hitter isn’t exactly doing him any favors.

delwyncelebrates.jpgAnyway, the reason I bring this all up again is because the 2009 Dodgers are going to have a very bizarre outfield configuration. While – as I delved into last week - the starters are amongst the best in the league, Juan Pierre is ill-suited to be a backup outfielder. I’m not going to turn this into yet another diatribe against Pierre, because we’ve covered all that already, but the simple fact is that his throwing arm is one of the worst in baseball. When you have a slugger like Manny who is often going to be lifted in the late innings for defensive purposes, most teams would have a superior defender on hand. Pierre’s simply not that guy.

Unfortunately, Delwyn’s not really that guy either, and having three-fifths of your outfield corps being below-average defenders isn’t exactly the ideal situation. In terms of defense, having Xavier Paul or Jason Repko (each of whom have great speed, strong arms, and can play center) is really the best fit for this particular puzzle.

Of course, this spring Young’s doing what he always does, and that’s flat-out hit. After putting a ball out of the park on Saturday against the Brewers, DY’s line for the spring stands at .321/.387/.526. Paul is also turning heads with his spring performance (.394/.459/.697), while Repko has probably played himself out of any shot with a lousy .182/.182/.280 line.

Young’s out of options, so while Paul can be sent down to AAA Albuquerque, Young cannot without clearing waivers first, which is unlikely. Yet, the need for at least one good defensive bench outfielder may force the club to choose Paul, and while I understand that, the idea of losing a player who’s done nothing but destroy the ball to the waiver wire is a little sickening. So with that I say, Save Delwyn Young! While he’s clearly not preferable to any of the three starters right now, I know I’m not the only Dodger fan who’d love to know what he could do give 500 at-bats.

But you know what? I know I said that this wasn’t going to be about Pierre, but if the fact that his lousy arm in addition to his punchless bat means that this team is cost the services of Delwyn Young by being forced to take Paul for his defense, that’s just yet another strike towards Pierre. That’s right: Juan Pierre – hurting the team even when he’s not playing.

Save Delwyn Young!

Somewhere, Jon Lester Sheds a Tear

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papeljig.jpgLook at that! Two Jon Lester posts in four days. By now, you’ve probably heard about Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon’s comments about Manny Ramirez to Esquire: 

So Manny was tough for us. You have somebody like him, you know at any point in the ball game, he can dictate the outcome of the game. And for him not to be on the same page as the rest of the team was a killer, man! It just takes one guy to bring an entire team down, and that’s exactly what was happening. Once we saw that, we weren’t afraid to get rid of him. It’s like cancer. That’s what he was. Cancer. He had to go.

Now, I normally wouldn’t comment on such a thing, because it’s not really baseball-related and sorting out the truths from the rumors about that situation is often impossible. Hey, maybe he’s right, and maybe he’s not. But I can’t help but point out that… hey, Jonathan. Your boy over there in the corner? Jon Lester, one of the best young pitchers in baseball? Just signed a big contract this week? Yeah, he had cancer. So I’m just going to go out on a limb and say that maybe making cancer jokes around your locker room, maybe not the best idea. Besides, do we really want to be taking advice from the jackass shown at right doing the Riverdance?

Moving on, I mentioned yesterday that I wasn’t that enthused on signing Pedro Martinez, especially for the price he was asking for. But since this is the story that seems like it just won’t go away, let’s take a second to address it again. Ken Rosenthal seems to agree with me, saying:

The Dodgers’ curiosity about free-agent right-hander Pedro Martinez ends with his asking price. The only way the Dodgers will sign Martinez, major-league sources say, is if he agrees to “pitch for pay,” accepting a low base salary with incentives.

Well, that’s pretty much what I said yesterday – if the price is a lot lower than the $5.5m guaranteed/$5.5m in incentives he’s looking for, I’d be willing to give it a shot. But even then I’m not huge on it, because I think Pedro’s mostly cooked. Eric Seidman over at Baseball Prospectus agrees and adds in with:

Considering his projected performance, there are simply not many teams that would be vastly improving their rosters by adding Martinez, and if the former All-Star is only going to provide a marginal level of production over either prospects or freely available talent, why bother?

When he does sign, the 13-year-old inside me who witnessed the dominance in that 1999 All-Star Game will be pulling for a career renaissance, but at this point, Pedro Martinez is a fifth starter with just a little bit left to contribute, whose past success may garner present and future opportunities even if the actual production fails to justify the playing time.

Exactly. The fact that he was so good in 1997 doesn’t have any bearing on how good he’d be in 2009 (are you listening, Yankee fans? That applies to Derek Jeter, too), so there’s no sense in paying him millions over the replacement-level return he’s likely to give you.

So, we’re all on the same page, right? Right? Oh, Bill Plaschke. When will you learn?

The ghost of Delino DeShields has haunted enough.

It’s time to bring Pedro Martinez home.

One year after an opening day in which the Dodgers ceremonially connected with their past, they could do it for real by turning a humongous mistake into a homecoming king.

So because the Dodgers made a big mistake 15 years ago, they should make another mistake by bringing back a player who’s a shadow of himself? Again, don’t get me wrong – if Pedro’s willing to work for the minimum, I’m not against giving him a shot, but there’s just no valid baseball reason for advocating bringing him back.

But I suppose that was my mistake – why would I expect to see Bill Plaschke having any use for “valid baseball reasons”? Carry on, Bill.

Thanks For Reading, Bill!

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Rob over at 6-4-2 brings to my attention something amazing, from Bill Plaschke’s column about Andruw Jones:

Plaschke Steals MSTI’s Gag Line

In today’s column:

“Are you saying you’re sorry?”

Are you sorry for showing up at spring training looking like a blue manatee? Sorry for not working hard enough to fix that weight? Sorry for ripping the fans who booed you for that weight? Sorry for asking to be put on the disabled list so you could disappear from those boos?

Funny, I coulda sworn I’d heard that before… where was it now? Oh, yeah.

Oh, Bill. I never knew you felt that way about me. After all the times I’ve pointed out just how bad you are at your job on this site, I never imagined you actually cared to read the thoughts of, well, someone who uses more than one sentence in a paragraph. Fine, it might not be as egregious as when Scout.com literally plagarized FireNedCollettiNow, but surely the use of the term “blue manatee” can’t be a coincidence, right? Not after I made a Photoshop of an enormous blue manatee to represent Jones? Especially when I made the joke above not because we ever called Andruw Jones a whale, but because the nickname “Hindenburg” had stuck due to both his resemblence to a blimp and the fact that his explosion injured nearly as many people?

Bill, I appreciate your readership. The invoice will be in the mail shortly.

On to far, far more important things, Jon Heyman has some rumors about Dodger third baseman:

There was talk at Dodgers camp that the Yankees might have interest in excellent contact hitter Mark Loretta, who could upgrade their third base situation.

Cashman wants to guard against an overpay, and opposing teams will be looking to take advantage of the Yankees’ situation. Blake DeWitt is another Dodger who would make sense, but one Dodgers person suggested L.A. might want young pitcher Phil Hughes for DeWitt — which definitely would qualify as an overpay. The Yankees would likely be willing to trade USC product Ian Kennedy but not Hughes, who’s having an excellent spring.

First, let me say that I find all of this incredibly unlikely. As a free agent signed this offseason, Loretta would have to give his consent to be traded before June. I’m not sure I can see a local boy who finally made his way to the Dodgers agreeing to be moved to New York to start for a few weeks just to sit on the bench when A-Rod returns. Besides, even if he did want to go, the Yankees surely wouldn’t want to give up all that much for a 37-year-old stopgap who’s miscast as a starter. Since Loretta is actually pretty valuable to the Dodgers as a backup at all four infield positions and a lefty-masher, whatever the Yankees would be willing to give up probably wouldn’t be worth it. So, scratch that.

iankennedy.jpgAs for DeWitt, well, I’d do DeWitt-for-Hughes in a heartbeat. But the Yankees never would, so we can drop that right now. Ian Kennedy’s an interesting proposition, though. A USC product and a former first-round pick, he’s been dominant in the minors (1.99 career ERA with more than a K per inning!) and got off to a hot start in his 2007 MLB debut, allowing just 4 earned runs in 19 innings. Of course, he got torched when pushed into the rotation in 2008 (8.19 ERA in 39.2 innings). Since he was still pretty good back in the minors (2.35 ERA), I’m willing to chalk that up to a 23-year-old who wilted under the pressure of his first real test in New York City.

Kennedy’s still just 24, and those minor league stats really impress me. And to be honest, while I really like Blake DeWitt, I do think that Dodger fans have overrated his potential slightly just because of how amazing his out-of-nowhere 2008 was. I do think he can be a solid regular, but I really don’t see him being an All-Star. I might say the same for Kennedy, but wouldn’t you rather a solid starting prospect than a solid infield prospect?

The other issue is one of depth. Even with the loss of Ivan DeJesus, Jr., to a broken leg, the Dodgers have plenty of middle infield depth between Loretta, Chin-Lung Hu, Tony Abreu, and perhaps even Juan Castro and Hector Luna, so losing DeWitt’s contributions at second base isn’t an issue. At third base, there’s a nice crop of youngsters coming up like Josh Bell and Pedro Baez, but none who would be ready this year if something were to happen to Casey Blake. If DeWitt were moved and something happened to Blake, you’d likely be looking at Loretta or Abreu playing every day, which isn’t a great situation.

On the other hand, an all 25-and-under group of Billingsley/Kershaw/McDonald/Kennedy, plus Kuroda or another veteran, in 2010 is drool-worthy. I think this is one of those deals I’d be okay with either way – if Kennedy gets added to the crop of pitchers, that’s great and I wouldn’t be crushed at losing DeWitt, and if not, it’s not like I’m dying for Kennedy anyway and then we’d still have DeWitt. But I would probably go ahead and do it, were this offer actually on the table.

Finally, yes, I have heard that Pedro Martinez is interested in coming back to the Dodgers, and no, I’m not all that interested. Yes, it would be nice to bring him back home after all the pain that was caused by the historically bad deal that sent him to Montreal in 1994, but that was fifteen years ago. He’s hardly the same player, and while I wouldn’t object to giving him a look, I do object to the two things he wants: a guaranteed rotation spot, which we don’t have considering that Jason Schmidt is the guaranteed #5 if he’s healthy, and a “Smoltz-like” contract of $5.5m guaranteed with $5.5m in incentives. If he’s willing to work for half of that, say, the possibility of getting to $5.5m total if he gets all his incentives, I might have interest. But even then, that’s still high and he might not sign for that little anyway. So, no.

You really can’t go home again.

The Battle For The Fifth Starter

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(sidenote: I currently have the top three most recommended stories on the MVN home page. Thanks to everyone who clicks “recommend” at the bottom! I love that.)

With Manny finally back in the fold, the Dodger lineup is as set as it’s been in years. There’s no platoon situations here, there’s no wondering about which corpsey old outfielder is going to take playing time away from a gifted youngster, there’s no merry-go-round at the infield corners mainly involved with trying to keep Nomar healthy. Really, the only questions still outstanding involving the position players are 1) will Juan Pierre still be here on Opening Day? and 2) who gets the second backup IF slot behind Mark Loretta? (My prediction as of today: “yes” and “Juan Castro”. I know.)

sm1082cripplefightpostefk7.jpgMeanwhile, on the mound, there’s a cast of thousands trying out for the fifth starter role – and it’s quite the entertaining group. Yes, there’s a stats chart down there over to the right, and yes, I know how meaningless spring stats can be, particularly in such small sample sizes. Well, guess what? It’s still there, just because it’s part of the discussion. Assign your own value to them. 

The Old & Busted

Jason Schmidt. The clear favorite if only due to his past success and enormous contract, Schmidt has somehow made it this far without having to undergo more surgery. At this point, you’d think he’d be more bionic than “The Six Million Dollar Man”… and about eight times as expensive. Ugh. (Note to self: insert cool 70s “bowaghaghagh” sound effect into video of Schmidt throwing fastballs.)

Anyway, the early reports on Schmidt in side sessions and “B” games had him looking relatively decent, if not a little wild, and reporting soreness, but more along the lines of “I haven’t pitched in two years and I’m an old man” rather than “my arm is held together with duct tape and chewing gum”.

Schmidt finally made his debut in an “A” game on Monday against Texas, and breezed through the first inning, allowing just a single on twelve pitches. The second inning was a little rougher, allowing a three-run homer to Taylor Teagarden, but considering it was his first real outing in twenty-one months, we’ll take it – plus, he did strike out two in that frame. 

In addition, Tony Jackson adds that…

Joe Torre admitted after the game that the fifth starter’s job is Schmidt’s to lose, and that if he continues to show that he is healthy and that he can be effective the rest of the spring, he’ll be the guy. 

Odds: 2-1, if he’s still in one piece by April.

Shawn Estes. I think ESPN’s Keith Law sums this up well enough:

Guillermo Mota and Shawn Estes: I don’t even see why these guys are in Dodgers camp, let alone on the roster (as Mota is), for a team favored to win its division. James McDonald should be the fifth starter over Estes (sitting around 85 mph Saturday), and guys like Ramon Troncoso and Scott Elbert should be considered for the ‘pen ahead of Mota.

Not that I really have a problem with throwing some non-roster invites to some guys to see what sticks at no risk whatsoever, but I couldn’t agree more. Estes only has 49 innings over the last three seasons, and don’t be fooled by his 15-8 record for the 2004 Rockies; he wasn’t
 very good that season (5.84 ERA) and hasn’t been league average since 2001. Hell, even that spring09pitchingstats.jpgyear he was only league average on the nose (same goes for the year before) and in fact, has only had one season in his entire career in which he’s been above average: his big 19-5 debut for the 1997 Giants.

Plus, so far this spring? 6 earned runs and 10 hits allowed in 5.1 innings, for a 10.13 ERA. Bad spring + lousy history + 85 mph = enjoy that bus ride home, Shawn. Odds: Vegas would be taking this one off the board.

Eric Milton. Like Estes, Milton is a lefty who hasn’t pitched much in the bigs over the last few years and was never all that good when he was healthy. Unlike Estes, Milton’s been pretty decent so far in camp. He followed Schmidt against Texas on Monday, allowing just two hits over three scoreless innings. For the spring, he’s allowed just three runs over 8.2 innings with a nice 7/2 K/BB ratio. I still expect Schmidt to get the role, but if not, might we see Milton stick as a long reliever? Odds: 10-1.

Claudio Vargas. I had a whole section on Claudio Vargas written out, mostly about how unlike Milton, Estes, and Weaver, he was given a major-league contract rather than just a spring training invite. But all that’s out the window after Monday, because Claudio Vargas has committed the unthinkable: he allowed a home run to our favorite fat sack of crap, Andruw Jones. That alone should disqualify him – and if it doesn’t, the three other homers he’s allowed in just 8.1 innings so far ought to. Odds: Andruw Jones’ weight times a hundred-to-1. 

Jeff Weaver. Yes, he’s in camp fighting for a bullpen role, officially. He still fits in this section, though, because unlike everyone we’ve discussed so far, he’s actually had success as a Dodger. And yes, that includes Jason Schmidt. Weaver hasn’t pitched much so far, but he’s been relatively effective in starting off with three scoreless innings. I actually hold out a bit more hope for him than I do for some of these other guys, because unlike those who haven’t been good in ten years, Weaver was effective as recently as 2005. Oh, sure – he’s been brutal since, bottoming out with an ERA over 5 in AAA last year, but he at least has a decent reason for his struggles: he’s been lazy:

The Los Angeles Times’ Dylan Hernandez reports Los Angeles Dodgers P Jeff Weaver admitted he didn’t work as hard as he should have after winning the World Series with the St. Louis Cardinals in 2006. ‘Sometimes you start taking things for granted and think that your natural ability is going to make you successful,’ Weaver said. ‘This winter, I worked my tail off.’

Grasping at straws? Sure. The kind of story you hear at this time of the year constantly? Oh, hell yeah. Still, he’s given up just one run in four innings so far. We’ll see if it’s true. Odds: 200,000-1 as fifth starter, 20-1 as reliever.

The New Hotness

James McDonald. I know, Rick Honeycutt all but announced that McDonald would start off in the bullpen, just like Chad Billingsley. It doesn’t change my opinion that he’s the man I’d like to see in the role more than anyone else listed here, so I’m still including him for comparison’s sake. The thing to remember here is that, even though most casual fans have been hearing about Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw about ten times longer than they have McDonald, James is just three months younger than Billingsley and 3.5 years older than Kershaw. The point is, he’s not that young, and we all remember how impressive he was in his stint in the playoffs last year. He’s off to somewhat of a rough spring start, allowing 4 earned runs in 5.2 innings, but that 5/0 K/BB ratio is tasty. I don’t really mind starting off our young pitchers in the bullpen, but I also don’t think that making him the 5th starter is really unfair to his development, either. Odds: 100,000-1, despite probably being the best candidate.

Ramon Troncoso. Troncoso was always the longest of long shots, as he only started 6 of his 156 minor league games (none since his first pro year in 2005), and was basically the last man out of the bullpen in his rookie year in LA last season. However, we did start hearing reports that he was attempting to convert to starting in the winter leagues this year, and looked pretty decent in doing so. There was probably nothing he was going to be able to do to win this job anyway, but he’d have had to really stand out to even give himself a chance – and allowing three earned runs in his first three innings, while striking out just one against three walks isn’t really going to do it. Odds: Even longer than Shawn Estes, and Shawn Estes is horrible.

And Featuring Eric Stults as “Eric Stults”

Eric Stults. We’ve always been big fans of Stults around here – I mean, have we forgotten how thoroughly he dominated the 89-win White Sox in a shutout in June? The fact that he had a 122 ERA+ in his 38 innings last year? The mystery of Stults’ 2008 is one which we’ve yet to explain, because he was very good in four of his five starts before committing the apparently unforgiveable sin of giving up 3 earned runs in 3.2 innings with an 11 run lead in Colorado, after which he was never heard from again. You’d think that at 29, you’d want to see what you can wring out of him. For some reason, the team has never looked upon him as more than a 9th starter, and now that he’s started off his spring by allowing 6 earned runs in 4.1 innings, he doesn’t look to be changing that impression. Odds: 250-1.