Need Any More Proof Why “Wins” Are A Useless Pitching Metric?
April 16, 2009 at 4:14 am | Posted in Clayton Kershaw | 10 Comments
A month after my 21st birthday, I was about halfway through the first semester of my senior year in college in Boston, back in 2002. I lived in a two-room apartment with a classmate. I watched cartoons. I ate Hungry Man dinners, because they were cheap. I drank cheap beer, because it was cheap, and I tried my best to pretend I was paying attention to my classes. Which I wasn’t.
I did plenty of other things as well, which don’t need to be mentioned in this space, but one thing I did not do? Put together one of the most dominating pitching performances in the majors so far this season. Let me put it this way – I wasn’t even putting up the kind of numbers on PlayStation baseball that Kershaw did tonight. 13 strikeouts against just 1 hit over 7 innings is fantastic, but almost as impressive is that he allowed just 1 walk. Really, all you needed to do was hear Vin Scully laughing in awe at his Bugs Bunny curveball, because you figure that Vin’s seen it all by this point – so when you’re getting his attention, you know you’re doing something right.
This wasn’t one of those “it was just okay, but for his age it was great!” games. This was a dominant effort, no matter who you are – to the point that Vin even mentioned Sandy Koufax when running down his list of K’s. When we’re watching Kershaw prepare for his Pepsi Hall of Fame (presented by Carl’s Jr.!) speech in 2032, this is going to be one of the games they point back to as when you just knew the kid was going to be something special.
Of course, this wasn’t all roses and kittens, because the Dodgers blew the win for Kershaw. You can blame much of that on the offense for not blowing away Matt Cain when they had the chance in the early innings, and you can also thank Hong-Chih Kuo and Ronald Belisario for blowing the lead almost immediately upon replacing Kershaw. I wasn’t kidding in the title to this post – wins are completely and totally useless in measuring pitchers, and while the sabermetric community is well aware of that, too many casual fans haven’t quite figured it out yet.
Even better, of course, the Dodgers did up saving the game at the end, by tying it up in the 8th and pulling it out in the 9th; a win’s a win, regardless of whether the “W” goes to Kershaw or Jonathan Broxton. And hey, that’s four in a row! But you know what? It’s not often we say this, but winning one game just seemed secondary to watching the next big thing really make his mark.
So after two fantastic starts by Billingsley and Kershaw, hey, no pressure tonight, Eric Stults. Right?
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I was at the game, and I agree with everything you just said.
Comment by Jim— April 16, 2009 #
I was at the game, and I agree with everything you just said.
Comment by Jim— April 16, 2009 #
Not that sympathy is ever an appropriate emotion when directed toward a San Francisco Giant, but it was appropriate the president of the Wins are A Useless Metric Fan Club, Matt Cain, was on the otherside of Clayton’s gem.
That stat about the Giants scoring 1 or 0 runs in half of Cain’s starts last year is a startling (and deeply pleasing) number.
Comment by Matt— April 16, 2009 #
In Hollywood, remakes of old movies are very popular. And while I know it’s still a little early to tell, there is some potential, to be sure, that in Bills & Kershaw… we could be looking at the 2009 remake of Drysdale & Koufax. Obviously, Bills has to start drilling batters in the ribs if they crowd the plate & Kershaw probably needs a no-no or two for this scenario to play out exactly, as it did in the 60′s.
But, is there anything better at the start of the season than the realization the Blue is truly LOADED with young pitching talent? I think not.
Comment by Vegas Blue— April 16, 2009 #
EXTRA BIG ASS STRIKEOUTS!!!!
Comment by VITAMIN A— April 16, 2009 #
Kershaw actually as some advantages over Koufax.
1) Kershaw is better at this age than Sandy was.
2) Kershaw has a serviceable third pitch, which Sandy never had.
3) Kershaw doesn’t tip his pitches. Not that it mattered according to Willie Mays.
Comment by Alireza— April 16, 2009 #
To me, Derek Lowe was also a victim of “wins”.
Comment by kensai— April 17, 2009 #
Wins can be overrated, but they are not totally useless. Steve Carlton won 25 for a Phillies team that lost more than 100, and Lincecum won a Cy Young for a bad Gnats (sic) team last year. Since Barry Zito joined the Gnats two years ago, his W-L record is better than Matt Cain’s, which says something about Matt Cain, who knows how to lose.
Comment by Anonymous— April 17, 2009 #
But on the other hand, the other old traditional stat for pitching: ERA, is the most perfect/ best stat for predicting a starting pitcher’s ability to help you win a game in all of baseball. It is so perfect in comparison to the many slice of the pie offensive stats.
Comment by Dodger Dude— April 17, 2009 #
[...] ended up losing). Remember, Kershaw didn’t get the win in either that game or this one (or his 13-strikeout game against the Giants last April). Do I really have to give you the line about “wins” [...]
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