So What Are We Going To Do About Russell Martin?
June 18, 2009 at 7:00 am | Posted in Russell Martin | 30 Comments
I realize that, with the Dodgers flying along with the best record in baseball, this is just going to sound like I’m looking for something to complain about. But it’s not that at all; this is a serious problem facing the team that’s not really getting a lot of play because of how well the team is doing. Because believe me, if Russell Martin was hitting .236 and the team was below .500, he’d be getting a lot more heat. While Martin being productive might not be a requirement to win the division, you can’t have him being a black hole in the playoffs – and worse, this is hardly something that just started on Opening Day this year. Though he had a quietly effective May, he was bad in April – and has been hideous in June (just 4 hits this month), after yet another 0-fer last night.
You don’t need me to specify that Martin’s been lousy this year; you watch the games, and you know. But you might be surprised - I know I was – to see just how bad he’s been. You might want to take small children out of the room for this, because this is going to be Juan Pierre 2007-level bad.
OPS!
Martin is at: .625
Which puts him: 160th in MLB (of 172 qualifiers)
Behind the likes of: Howie Kendrick (just demoted to AAA), Jhonny Peralta (just benched), and magical pixie elf David Eckstein (is David Eckstein).
And that means… what’s worse, that he’s hitting worse than guys who are losing their jobs, or that he’s less potent than David Eckstein? The truly scary part here is that his .347 OBP is still pretty respectable thanks to the walks he draws, which means that when you look at just his slugging percentage…
SLG!
Martin is at: .278
Which puts him: 169th in MLB (of 172 qualifiers)
Behind the likes of: Just about everyone who’s not the 38-year-old corpse of Brian Giles or just-demoted Giant Emmanuel Burriss.
And that means… it means he’s the least dangerous hitter in baseball, basically. Let me put it this way; it’s about 35 points lower than the worst season Juan Pierre ever had, ever. Think about that for a second. Russell Martin looks at Juan Pierre and says to himself, “man, I wish I had his power.”
VORP!
Martin is at: -2.6
Which puts him: 47th among MLB catchers (min. 50 PA)
Behind the likes of: Nick Hundley, Koyie Hill, Chad Moeller, Wil Nieves
And that means… 47th among MLB catchers? 26th for NL only? Remember, there’s only 30 MLB teams, 16 in the NL. Right now, Russell Martin isn’t worthy of a starting gig.
And as I said, this is hardly a 2009 thing. Over the last calendar year, here’s his line – in 145 games, he’s got a .250/.359/.334, with 7 homers for a .639 OPS. By comparison, Juan Pierre’s career OPS is .721 – nearly a full 100 points better.
I don’t know if I can possibly repeat that enough for emphasis: Russell Martin has been worse than Juan Pierre over the last year.
It’s not just us stat dorks, either, judging by what an anonymous scout told Baseball Prospectus:
Dodgers catcher Russell Martin: “You talk about a young player growing old before our very eyes. His bat is slowing down, and he’s not moving very well behind the plate. I don’t know what’s wrong with him.”
Ugh; is there anything more depressing than hearing the phrase “getting old before our very eyes” about a guy who’s just 26?
So, what exactly is his problem?
Is he making less contact?
Yeah, that’s part of it. His 19.8 K% is higher than it’s ever been, but it’s also not an astronomical jump from his usual range of 13-16% - and it’s still below the league average of 20%. It’s not a good sign, to be sure, but it’s also hardly enough to be causing what we’re seeing.
Is he hitting fewer line drives?
Surprisingly, no. His line drive percentage is eerily consistent – at 19.4%, it’s no different than his career average of 18.9%. Other than a slight dip in 2007, he’s been within the 19% range his entire career.
Is he hitting more ground balls?
A few, but not a whole lot more. 52.4% of the time in 2009, not too much different than his career average of 50.1%. When he came up in 2006, it was 50.4%, so it’s more, but not hugely more.
Is he just unlucky?
Partially. His batting average on balls in play is .294, which is the lowest of his career. However, the league average is .300, so that’s hardly a disaster.
Is he swinging at bad pitches?
We saw earlier that Pierre’s resurgence was caused in large part by his becoming more choosy in his at-bats, swinging at fewer balls out of the zone that he couldn’t get solid contact on. But none of this applies to Martin; his ratios of swings at balls out of the zone (19.4%), in the zone (60.6%), and overall swings (39.3%) fall right into his career averages.
Okay, you’ve told us everything it’s not. When are you going to tell us what it is?
Well, the fact that he’s striking out more and hitting more groundballs certainly contributes, but, there’s no one stat that has popped out that really goes to explain what Martin’s issue is. Let’s go back to what the scout said earlier:
Dodgers catcher Russell Martin: “You talk about a young player growing old before our very eyes. His bat is slowing down, and he’s not moving very well behind the plate. I don’t know what’s wrong with him.”
Focus on the part about his bat slowing down, and you’re on to a big part of the problem… Martin is getting blown away by fastballs.
Over at FanGraphs, they’ve been able to assign a run value to the production on each type of pitch a batter sees, and then converted it to a rate. For example, if you look at Albert Pujols against fastballs, he’s been pretty consistently at 2-4 runs per 100 fastballs above average over his career, though he’s beating even that this year. In 2007, Martin’s first full (and best) season, he produced 1.69 runs above average every 100 fastballs. Last year, in which he was still decent but nowhere near as good as in 2007, that fell to 0.59. This year? Down to just 0.14.
It’s hardly a foolproof method – he’s also down on sliders, as well – but it certainly makes sense, doesn’t it? You’ve got a heavily used catcher who’s striking out more, grounding out more, is having a hard time catching up to fastballs, has had his “Speed” score drop four years in a row (it’s a 1-10 ranking scale that uses several speed-based stats, and Martin’s gone from 5.3 to 5.2 to 4.0 to 3.3), and has a scout saying he looks old.
Is it possible that all the vitriol we directed at Grady Little in 2006 and ’07, and Joe Torre in 2008 (especially with the ridiculous “third base days off”), for overworking him is coming home to roost much much quicker than we thought it would? To his credit, Torre’s been better about resting him this season (though when Brad Ausmus is outproducing him it’s probably not a hard decision to make any more) but is that simply too little too late? Did all of the extra work he received the last few seasons sap the energy out of him? You hate to say that at 26, but the evidence is pretty glaring.
The real question is, what to do? I’m not ready to give up on him just yet; he’s been too important to this team over the last few years, but also because A) there’s no one really worth replacing him with and B) the large division lead allows you some leeway in letting him work things out.
But if this doesn’t turn around at some point soon…
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I really miss Carlos Santana. During the game, at least on the A’s feed that Mattingly was doing a lot of writing during Russell’s at bats. I would hope that Donnie is gonna spend some extensive one on one time with Russell.
Comment by grabarkewitz— June 18, 2009 #
I just can’t buy the overuse argument for a 26 year old catcher who came to the position relatively late in life. That works for Martin’s typical late season swoons, but this is different.
I know I am far from the first to say this, but one has to wonder if Martin’s always done everything…naturally.
Comment by Feng Shui Charlie— June 18, 2009 #
2 – Yeah, I thought about including that. I just feel like a dropoff this large has to go to more than just that – plus, it’s not like there’s any proof or even rumors to go on.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— June 18, 2009 #
Couldn’t agree more with this article. I live here in Phoenix a die hard fan of the Dodgers 38 years running! Before I got excited to see him bat…now I cringe if he comes up with 2 outs and runners in scoring position. I am an optimist….I pray he comes around because we need him to.
Comment by R Garcia— June 18, 2009 #
It’s this new girlfriend. I am totally confused over the fact that he is incredibly superstitous. We’ve watched him go through haircut after haircut, shaving, growing different variations of facial hair, all varying over the teams losses. Doesn’t he see that one HUGE change he has made since ’08 is this new piece of baggage? I’m all for a hot girlfriend, but wake up Russell!
Oh and my dad thinks its because he’s off the roids this season but that’s a whole other arguement.
Comment by Miss— June 18, 2009 #
When Russell first came up and was playing like the leader of the team, I thought for sure that we had a bonafide franchise player on our hands. A kid who hit, who ran, who played defense. He’d be our All-Star almost every year. I had dreams of slapping the ridiculous (in baseball) Captain’s “C” on his jersey.
But now? Who knows? We can’t have many more years of production like this.
One unsaid thing, and this is just a hunch, is that Russell is injured. I mean, the decrease in his stats is telling, but at the same time, Russell seems like the kind of guy who wouldn’t disclose an injury so he could keep playing.
Though, another thing to take into consideration: the Dodgers drafted five catchers this year, two in the first six rounds. These guys might not be ready for a little, but I wonder if it’s possibly a sign that the front office knows something about Russell that the rest of us don’t.
Comment by J— June 18, 2009 #
Is it just me or when he does make contact he pulls everything? This might be a sign of him pressing to get a quicker swing because he lacks confidence and or physical ability to catch up to the ball if he waits on a pitch.
I have also seen him connect on pitches he was driving out of the park that now just die into leftfield
I am thinking an undisclosed injury or a huge strength drop off for reasons that we can only speculate….
Comment by PJ— June 18, 2009 #
Right, Miss June: Blame the woman. How is it her fault that he’s can’t handle fastballs? I like the kid, but more and more he seems like kind of a head-case. Somebody who’d rather wallow in angst, and change his appearance every few weeks, rather than just get out there and do it. I hate to say this, but they’re indulging him a LOT. The Torre heart-to-heart chats in the off season, and the J. Martin thing? What did that get us?
He’s a baseball player not a poet. Believe me, Russell, there’s plenty of time for angst when you hit middle age.
Comment by KToo— June 18, 2009 #
Right, Miss June: Blame the woman. How is it her fault that he’s can’t handle fastballs? I like the kid, but more and more he seems like kind of a head-case. Somebody who’d rather wallow in angst, and change his appearance every few weeks, rather than just get out there and do it. I hate to say this, but they’re indulging him a LOT. The Torre heart-to-heart chats in the off season, and the J. Martin thing? What did that get us?
He’s a baseball player not a poet. Believe me, Russell, there’s plenty of time for angst when you hit middle age.
Comment by KToo— June 18, 2009 #
For those who think Martin has juiced, you are kidding right? Have you ever known a guy who took steroids? They sure as hell don’t have Martin’s body.
The fear I have is that Matt Kemp’s gain has been Russell Martin’s loss. The more I look at it, the more I think Don Mattingly’s style is absolutely terrible for Martin. Lets look at the numbers.
2008 Pre-All Star Break – .294 .394 .436 .830 10 HR
2008 Post-All Star Break – .260 .371 .336 .708 3 HR
Guess when Donnie Baseball rejoined the club.
Martin was absolutely crushing balls in the WBC and in Spring Training. When he wouldn’t have been around Mattingly and Pentland as much.
The “wait for your pitch” philosophy works for a guy who is a natural free swinger like Kemp, but not a guy like Martin who is already a selective hitter. With Martin, it means he is almost trying to be too perfect and has changed his hitting approach.
Personally, I would like the Dodgers to bring in a guy like Rod Carew or bring back Mike Easler as a consultant, because that is more of a style that works for Martin. Another guy who can probably help is already on the payroll in Bill Mueller, who was the hitting coach in 2007 when Martin really blossomed.
Comment by Alireza— June 18, 2009 #
There must be ways to get him some HGH.
Comment by kai1964— June 18, 2009 #
I say we have to look elsewhere after this year unless he is playing injured.
David
Comment by DavidS— June 18, 2009 #
I agree about the girlfriend. Too much yoga and tofu. I want to throw some raw meat at him before a game and watch him go animal…..
Comment by Richard— June 18, 2009 #
It’s no secret that Martin’s always been the most intense of our young cadre of players. I think when he’s going good — he’s king of the world — and when he’s going bad like he is this season — he probably gets down on himself a little more than the average guy. I would imagine seeing the success of this team this year and not being able to contribute to that success in the way that he would like weighs fairly heavy on a person with that type “A” personality.
With that being said, I think you can’t count out things like he’s in his first true “contract” year and that’s a lot of pressure for a guy who knows or feels like his performance this year could set him up for life. Every failure compounds itself on the last. Obviously, the girlfriend is another thing. I mean, are any of us or were any of us any good at balancing relationships with work when we were his age? Add to that the craziness of a baseball schedule — and it’s a potential problem.
Also — I have no knowledge of his mother’s situation but we all know he added that “J.” to his uni this year to honor her. Is she perhaps sick, maybe a terminal illness or something? If so, it may so personal he’s not letting it on that she’s ill.
I know I’m just adding a lot of questions like logs on a fire — and not offering a whole lot of answers — but just trying to float a few ideas out there.
Maybe he just misses Manny.
Maybe he’s focusing more on the staff this year because veterans like DLowe & Penny aren’t around anymore, and damn near the whole bullpen turned over in the offseason. I guarantee, it takes more out of him handling Kershaw & Bills because as great as they are — they are still young pitchers.
Maybe he just needs a puppy, a hug, and someone to tell him everything is going to be alright.
Anyway, just thought those were a few issues that hadn’t been considered.
Comment by Vegas Blue— June 18, 2009 #
Oh come on, he’s had too goddamn many puppies and too goddamn many hugs. I think somebody needs to tell him that if he doesn’t want to make millions of dollars as a 26 year old star catcher in Los Angeles, then there’s plenty of other guys out there who would be happy to take his place.
Just go play ball, Russell. Get out of your own head.
Comment by KToo— June 18, 2009 #
Ding, ding, ding! We have a winna!
Casey Blake is a fine player.
Comment by Rob McMillin— June 18, 2009 #
Crash Davis: I never told him to stay out of your bed.
Annie Savoy: You most certainly did.
Crash Davis: I never told him to stay out of your bed.
Annie Savoy: Yes you did.
Crash Davis: I told him that a player on a streak has to respect the streak.
Annie Savoy: Oh fine.
Crash Davis: You know why? Because they don’t – -they don’t happen very often.
Annie Savoy: Right.
Crash Davis: If you believe you’re playing well because you’re getting laid, or because you’re not getting laid, or because you wear women’s underwear, then you ARE! And you should know that!
Comment by Rob McMillin— June 18, 2009 #
Russ has been the victim of a good deal of bad luck this year. Tonight, for example, he absolutely cracked the ball Cabrera made the running catch on.
Also, he is still a top 5 defensive catcher
Comment by Alireza— June 18, 2009 #
Wow, very popular subject for MSTI.
I think we need to pull out the phantom injury card and place him on the DL. Let him work out some kinks for a couple weeks and perhaps rest if he needs it. Then go on a week-long rehab assignment in low A to see if it worked and get some confidence back.
By the way… anyone else glad we didn’t sign him long-term yet? I bet he’s kicking himself for turning Ned away.
Comment by TheSleaze— June 19, 2009 #
I’d have to agree with sending him down for a bit, he’s just not the same guy and I think it’s the pressure of being an All Star every year getting to him.
And feed the guy some cheeseburgers. Fat Russ hit with power, skinny Russ seems to only be able to smack line drive grounders to 3rd.
Comment by Chappy— June 19, 2009 #
Great post with good stats on an issue Dodger fans have been watching for a while. He really doesn’t seem to be the same catcher he was two years ago. Here’s the one stat I’d like to see – how has his defense changed in the last year? Alireza makes a good point about his defense. It does seem to be a little better this year than last year. He couldn’t throw anybody out for a time last year. Perhaps he has been focusing so much on defense with Ausmus that his hitting is off?
What’s funny though, check out the stats of Martin compared with Dioner Navarro, the guy who would have been the catcher if not traded away. Navarro also is having a horrible season (.218 Avg, .569 OPS). I guess it’s rough for both catchers from last years All-Star game.
Comment by Scott (sfdodgerfan.com)— June 19, 2009 #
Martin’s swing has always been too long, but now it’s getting him in trouble because pitchers are throwing inside. He should shorten his swing, keep his hands in, close his stance, and hit to right center the way he used to. He needs Pudge Rodriguez, not Don Mattingly, who had a long stroke. Torre thinks Mattingly is great, however, so I doubt that Martin will recover under his tutelage. Too bad.
Comment by Mike— June 19, 2009 #
Martin’s swing has always been too long, but now it’s getting him in trouble because pitchers are throwing inside. He should shorten his swing, keep his hands in, close his stance, and hit to right center the way he used to. He needs Pudge Rodriguez, not Don Mattingly, who had a long stroke. Torre thinks Mattingly is great, however, so I doubt that Martin will recover under his tutelage. Too bad.
Comment by Mike— June 19, 2009 #
“Great post with good stats on an issue Dodger fans have been watching for a while. He really doesn’t seem to be the same catcher he was two years ago. Here’s the one stat I’d like to see – how has his defense changed in the last year? Alireza makes a good point about his defense. It does seem to be a little better this year than last year. He couldn’t throw anybody out for a time last year. Perhaps he has been focusing so much on defense with Ausmus that his hitting is off?”
There was nothing wrong with Martin’s defense last year. He had a pitching staff that couldn’t hold a guy on to save their lives. Remember that Martin was the first guy all year to gun down Hanley Ramirez. Anyway, he is absolutely mowing down baserunners now, and that probably has nothing to do with Ausmus, who’s arm hasn’t been much for a long time.
Also, remember that Russ still is the best ball blocker out there.
For all people seem to be crapping on Martin, they forget what a solid fundamental baseball player he is. He combines his athleticism with classic catching technique to control the balls thrown. Actually, that is probably part of his hitting woes. He has taken what Mattingly says a gospel and is getting killed because of it.
“What’s funny though, check out the stats of Martin compared with Dioner Navarro, the guy who would have been the catcher if not traded away. Navarro also is having a horrible season (.218 Avg, .569 OPS). I guess it’s rough for both catchers from last years All-Star game.”
At least Russ puts up a respectable OBP. Also, Navarro was traded because of just how good Russ was and is.
“Martin’s swing has always been too long, but now it’s getting him in trouble because pitchers are throwing inside. He should shorten his swing, keep his hands in, close his stance, and hit to right center the way he used to.”
Martin’s swing hasn’t historically been long, you are thinking of Loney. Martin’s best swing is where he basically treats his bat like a tennis racket and whacks balls up the middle. He is a hands and wrists hitter.
“He needs Pudge Rodriguez, not Don Mattingly, who had a long stroke. Torre thinks Mattingly is great, however, so I doubt that Martin will recover under his tutelage. Too bad.”
Pudge is still an active player, so I don’t see a reason to have him in. Perhaps more work with Manny Mota?
Comment by Alireza— June 19, 2009 #
What are we going to do about James Loney? Offense out of a catcher is a nice boost, but not something you need to count on.
First base is another matter.
Comment by Kelly— June 20, 2009 #
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Comment by bgmcavlz— July 1, 2009 #
How come I always have to read it must be steroids everytime a player’s performance drops.
Do people not realize the abuse a player takes behind the plate especially their knees? They talked about the average catcher being worn out after half a game making the last two at bats throwaway at bats. He also has played over 130 games behind the plate each of the past three seasons. It takes a toll. In any case, most mangers would take Russell Martin’s offensive and defensive game in a heart beat at the catcher position.
As for pudge still being active, he might as well retire. He’s trying to hold on to reach a 3000 hit milestone like Biggio. He was no business playing catcher for a team with his now anemic hitting and now average catching ability.
Comment by andrew— August 15, 2009 #
All that I know is he’s become a rally killer. Too many pop-ups, strikeouts and routine grounders. Time to find someone who can produce better, especially with runners in scoring position.
Comment by Tom O— September 9, 2009 #
[...] what’s caused all of this? Back in June, I wrote a post titled “What Are We Going to Do With Russell Martin?” At the time, I noted that a scout said he thought Martin looked old and slow, and after [...]
Pingback by MSTI’s 2009 in Review: Catcher « Mike Scioscia’s tragic illness— October 26, 2009 #
[...] just that a backstop combo of Martin and Ausmus may be the most impotent in the big leagues. It’s been a little over a year since I took an in-depth look into Martin’s struggles, and he hasn’t shown any improvement; his .245/.351/.326 line this season nicely mirrors his [...]
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