Full of Sound and Fury, Signifying Nothing
July 31, 2009 at 2:52 pm | Posted in rumors | 10 Comments
Anyone predict that Vinny Rottino would be the big Dodger acquisition of the day? Anyone? After a day full of rumors both predictable (Roy Halladay!) and much much less (Adrian Gonzalez and Heath Bell? What would the Padres have wanted, the Dodgers’ top 15 prospects, the corpse of Jackie Robinson, and the right to carve “Beat LA” onto the moon?) the deadline passed without the Dodgers adding anyone to the major league roster, other than yesterday’s deal for George Sherrill. I must admit that I’m a little conflicted.
On one hand, guys like Clayton Kershaw, Scott Elbert, James McDonald, and Andrew Lambo are still in the organization, and that’s definitely a good thing. But on the other, you just feel like this is the year that it’s finally time to go for it. Whether that meant a starter like Halladay or Jarrod Washburn or the idea of getting Bell to go with Sherrill and create an unholy bullpen, you wanted to see them do something.
So yeah, I’m disappointed. But in the same breath, I’m also happy, because Ned Colletti didn’t get desperate and go make a deal when the right deal just wasn’t there. Toronto’s demands for Halladay were well-known to be unreasonable, and I really feel that if the Dodgers had anted up for Halladay, it would have cost so much that we wouldn’t have been all that thrilled about it.
So what are we left with? This has still been the best team in baseball to this point, and the addition of Sherrill does improve an already-impressive bullpen. The questions about the rotation remain, but really, short of paying an absurd ransom for Halladay, what was to be done? Washburn’s terribly overrated, and considering how incredibly happy Seattle fans were with the trade, it’s hard to say that he’d have been the right choice for the Dodgers.
Going forward, don’t worry about the offense; it’s just a slump. Don’t worry about the bullpen; rumors of its demise have been great exagerrated, with the addition of Sherrill and return of Ronald Belisario. The starters? Yeah, there’s some cause for concern, but the sky is hardly falling.
And remember! This is important – the fact that the corpse of Jason Schmidt is going tonight against Atlanta’s Tommy Hanson, one of the brightest young stars in baseball, is just bad timing. The Dodgers ARE making the playoffs, and Schmidt is NOT pitching in October. Remember that when he’s down 8-0 in the 2nd inning tonight.
Not Claudio Vargas!!
July 31, 2009 at 10:30 am | Posted in Claudio Vargas, Vinny Rottino | 12 CommentsI wrote that title as a complete joke, because really, Dodger fans have done little but make fun of Claudio Vargas all year… but now that I think about it, I’m not at all sure I understand this:
LOS ANGELES – The Los Angeles Dodgers today announced that they have acquired minor league catcher Vinny Rottino from the Milwaukee Brewers in exchange for right-handed pitcher Claudio Vargas. Dodger General Manager Ned Colletti made the announcement.
Rottino, 29, has appeared briefly in the Major Leagues for Milwaukee in each of the past three seasons and was named to the Pacific Coast League All-Star team last season when he posted a 24-game hitting streak. The Wisconsin native has made the PCL All-Star team each of the past three years and has been named to his league’s All-Star team in each season dating back to 2004 when he recorded a team record 124 RBI for Single-A Beloit.
Vargas, 31, spent much of the 2009 season on the disabled list with right elbow tendinitis before being activated on July 3. Since returning to the big leagues, he has appeared in eight games for Los Angeles, posting a 1.64 ERA in 11.0 innings. The Dominican Republic native will be returning to Milwaukee, where he won 11 games for the Brewers in 2007. In seven big league seasons, the right-hander is 46-40 with a 4.89 ERA in 172 games (114 starts).
Rottino is expected to report to Double-A Chattanooga.
Believe it or not, Vargas has actually been pretty good for the Dodgers since coming off the DL. 11 innings isn’t much of a sample size, but he’s allowed only 11 baserunners and 2 runs in that time, with a nice 10/4 K/BB ratio. I’m hardly crushed that he’s gone, but did we really need Vinny Rottino? He’s 29 with all of 18 MLB games under his belt, and he’s so highly thought of that he’s being sent to AA. You almost feel bad for the guy, being a Wisconsin native and all, now being shipped out to Chattanooga.
No, what this feels like is a way to clear out a roster spot for George Sherrill, but there were better ways to do that. DFA Jason Schmidt, for one, and no, I don’t care that he’s tonight’s starter. Send down James McDonald or Scott Elbert, if you must, because you know that either one would be right back up in a week.
Vargas wasn’t great, but he was at least useful, while Vinny Rottino looks unlikely to ever play a single game as a Dodger. I hate to act as though I’m all worked up over losing Claudio Vargas, of all people, but this move just makes no sense at all.
Welcome to the Playoffs, George Sherrill…
July 30, 2009 at 1:20 pm | Posted in George Sherrill, Josh Bell, Steven Johnson | 13 Comments
I’ve re-written this intro about four times, ranging from “This trade rules!” when I thought it was just Josh Bell, to “holy hell no!” when I thought it was Bell and Scott Elbert, to “yeah, that’s fair” now that we know it’s Bell and Steven Johnson.
As far as relievers go, Sherrill’s basically the best on the market, and we’ve heard that up to eight teams were after him – so for the Dodgers to get him is a pretty nice feather in the cap. He’s a little older than you might think – 32, since he didn’t make his MLB debut until 27 – but he’s been one of the best relievers in the American League for the last several years. After some quality years in Seattle (dig that 2.36 ERA in 70 games in 2007), Sherrill was dealt to Baltimore in the disastrous Erik Bedard trade, and has put up 51 saves as the O’s closer the last two seasons. Clearly, he’s not coming to LA to be the closer, but if you can put up a 191 ERA+ and strike out nearly a man per inning in the toughest division in baseball, he’s still a pretty nice addition to the pen.
Sherrill has an absolutely absurd platoon split in 2009 – while righties are OPS’ing .731 off him, which is a little better than average (88 OPS+), lefties have no prayer whatsoever, OPS’ing just .356. That’s an OPS+ of 3. THREE. His career numbers haven’t been quite that crazy, but he’s still holding lefties to a good 250 points of OPS worse than righties.
As far as what he adds to the bullpen, a strength just got stronger:
CL Broxton
LH Sherrill
LH Kuo
RH Troncoso
RH Mota (I know, but he’s been incredible over the last few months)
That’s a top five in the ‘pen that you can put up against anyone else in the league, and that doesn’t even count the imminent return of Ronald Belisario, the quality long relief of Claudio Vargas and Jeff Weaver, and the hope you still hold for Cory Wade. Who needs the starters to go more than 6 innings when you’ve got guys like that holding down the last three?
For the guys going to Baltimore, it’s not exactly a cheap price. Josh Bell’s a third baseman who’s been steadily progressing through the system since his drafting in the 4th round in 2005, and Kensai thinks he might even have a 30-35 homer peak in the bigs ahead of him. As a 22-year-old in AA this year, he’s more than held his own, putting up a line of .296/.386/.497 with 11 homers. Steven Johnson (hey, he’s a native of Baltimore! congratulations, kid) was a 2005 draftee like Bell, but was on no one’s top prospect list. His first shot at advanced A ball last year as a 20 year old was a disaster (7.10 ERA in 11 games), though he’s bounced back to strike out more than a man per inning repeating that level before a recent promotion to AA.
And really, it’s the fact that it’s Steven Johnson, and not Scott Elbert, who’s joining Bell with the O’s that makes this trade a win and not a disaster. Bell’s a solid prospect, but not a superstar-in-waiting, and you have to expect to give up at least that much. Johnson’s intriguing, but hardly someone you lose sleep over. Elbert’s already shown success at the major league level, and losing him would not only cost his services as a Dodger, but his availability in any possible Roy Halladay trade.
I say that I hate things so often around here that I’m thrilled to be able to take the other side: this is a good, solid trade that’s going to help the Dodgers without killing them in the future. Even better, Sherrill’s only arbitration-eligible, so he can’t just walk away. Job well done by Ned Colletti on this one.
So We’d Want Roy Halladay For His Bat?
July 30, 2009 at 11:00 am | Posted in Chad Billingsley, Clayton Kershaw, Gerry Fraley, Hiroki Kuroda, Randy Wolf | 1 CommentDespite the incredible outing by Clayton Kershaw last night, the Dodgers are on their first four-game losing streak of the season, and with another loss tonight would have suffered their first sweep in St. Louis in 22 years. But Kershaw pitched brilliantly, Randy Wolf allowed just two earned runs in the first game, and while Chad Billingsley did implode after 5 solid innings in the middle game, it’s not as though he’s getting replaced in the rotation. No, the real problem right now is the bats – just three runs scored in the three games of the series. When you’ve got Manny Ramirez, Casey Blake, and Matt Kemp all hitting under .200 over the last week (small sample size, granted), your offense isn’t going to go that far.
So then what the hell is Gerry Fraley at FoxSports.com talking about?
To understand why the Los Angeles Dodgers are skittish despite their healthy lead in the National League West, consider the first two games of a series against St. Louis.
Because they scored one run in those two games?
The Dodgers took on a true ace in right-hander Chris Carpenter and lost. The Dodgers took on a budding ace in right-hander Adam Wainwright and lost. Carpenter and Wainwright combined to allow one run in 15 innings.
You got it. Hard to win when you score one run in fifteen innings.
The losses will have no impact on the Dodgers’ march to the playoffs.
The losses tell why the Dodgers could be short-timers when the playoffs begin.
Because the offense would struggle against aces in the playoffs? Possibly; it’s an old baseball cliche that “good pitching beats good hitting”. But it seems to me that it’s just a slump; there’s not too many offenses I’d take over the crew the Dodgers have. Either way, go on, Gerry: tell me more about the struggling Dodger offense.
The Dodgers have a good club for the long haul of a 162-game season and have benefited from playing in a soft division. They went into Wednesday’s game at Busch Stadium at 30-12 against the NL West and 32-26 in all other games.
Cliche alert! The best team in the league and the top two wild card contenders (so, three of the top five NL teams) all reside in the NL West. Sure, Arizona and San Diego are dreadful. But the East has Washington (and lately, the Mets) and the Central has Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. “NL West as weak sister division” = “fallacy”.
The Dodgers are not set up well for the playoffs.
The club lacks the starting pitcher(s) that can win against the top-shelf starters such as Carpenter and Wainwright, who both rank among the NL’s top eight in ERA.
Well, I’d say Clayton Kershaw – currently 7th in the NL in ERA, ahead of Wainwright – is a pretty good start. Randy Wolf, by the way, is in the top 20, and Billingsley is top 30. I won’t argue that the Dodgers’ top 2 are better than the Cardinals top 2, but as MoKM pointed out, it doesn’t matter how badly Billingsley blew up when the offense is putting up zero runs, does it?
A Dodgers-Cardinals series is a real possibility for the NL playoffs. In that matchup, the Cardinals would hold a huge advantage because Carpenter and Wainwright outweigh any pair from the Dodgers’ current rotation.
Well, it’s a good thing that games are played in pairs. Win one, get two! Fortunately, you only play one game at a time, and right now I’ll take my chances with Kershaw in one of those games.
And in a third game, the Cardinals could trot out right-hander Joel Pineiro, who ranks ninth in the NL for ERA at 2.95.
Really, Joel Pineiro? That’s the best you’ve got? Yeah, he’s having a nice season, even though it’s the first time he’s had his ERA below 4 since 2003. He’s also had terrible success against the current Dodgers, allowing a .325/.360/.815 line in 140 plate appearances against the boys in blue throughout their careers. I’m not all that worried about him.
In one breath, Dodgers outfielder Manny Ramirez said it is too early to talk about the playoffs. In the next breath, Ramirez said “you see a lot of good pitchers in the playoffs.”
That explains why general manager Ned Colletti is pushing for a top-shelf starting pitcher before Friday’s waiver-driven trade deadline. (Another arm for the fraying bullpen would help, too.)
Last night’s debacle aside, the “fraying bullpen” has the third-best ERA of any bullpen in baseball and the second-lowest batting average against. They’ve already gotten a boost by the return of Hong-Chih Kuo and look to get another when Ronald Belisario returns, and you show me a bullpen that’s going to add two better arms than that right now. It’s true that the high innings count by the pen is a concern, but “fraying”? Hardly. More like an unexpected strength. But that’s okay, Gerry, just like with the bit about the weak NL West, you just keep following the party line without doing any real research. We don’t mind.
What the Dodgers have now in the rotation — kids and questions — will not do come October. The manager understands that.
“I don’t think that it’s any secret that we’ve been inquiring about how we can make this ballclub better,” manager Joe Torre said. “Pitching is always the priority. Pitching controls everything.”
Kershaw is a “kid”. Billingsley is a “kid”. Regardless of whether the Dodgers go get Roy Halladay or not, they’re still going to get postseason starts – as well they should. So that point is invalid. I’m not suggesting that I wouldn’t like to see a move made, just that this whole article is taking the fact that the Dodgers couldn’t hit Carpenter and Wainwright and somehow turning that into meaning the pitching staff sucks. Because Halladay’s going to hit 5th in the lineup on the days he doesn’t pitch, right?
In their current form, the Dodgers lack a starting pitcher who can go 4-0 in a postseason, as Philadelphia left-hander Cole Hamels did last season and Boston right-hander Josh Beckett did in 2007.
Why? Because you say so? It was only yesterday that I made the case that Kershaw’s been the best pitcher in baseball over the last two months, and while I realize that’s a lot to throw on a 21-year-old, with each outing you see more and more that there’s something special there. Who’s to say what he can’t do at this point? And as we’ve shown a million times, “wins” are ridiculous, so even if Kershaw were to go out and throw a stinker, the offense could pick him up and still get him a “win”.
The Dodgers consider themselves fortunate to get a starter through the sixth inning. Their starters have averaged only 5.62 innings per game, the second-lowest total in the NL.
That is no way to go into a postseason.
This is a stat that gets trotted out a lot, and it kills me. The Dodgers do average 5.6 innings per start, and of course you’d like to see that be a little better. But it gets made out to be as though Dodger starters are getting knocked out in the first inning every night, when in reality the league average is 5.9 innings per start. That means that Dodger starters are getting, on average, 1 fewer out than the average team. Big god damn deal. Besides, it’s somewhat of a faulty stat, because it includes all the short outings we saw from guys like Eric Milton, Jason Schmidt, and Jeff Weaver. You really think any of those guys are getting an October start?
The Dodgers’ top two starters are right-hander Chad Billingsley and left-hander Clayton Kershaw. It would be an act of faith to send them out for the first two games of a postseason series.
Back here on Planet Earth, it’d be an act of lunacy to not send them out for postseason starts. Unless you’ve got a plan to trade for Halladay, Johan Santana, and Tim Lincecum, you’d be crazy to complain about these two guys.
Kershaw is 21 years old and has all of two innings of postseason experience. He has won his last five decisions but is prone to walks and inflated pitch counts that force him out of games early. He goes into Wednesday night’s scheduled start against St. Louis averaging 5.03 walks per nine innings.
I love that first sentence, because it’s so uninformed. Let’s apply this to the top starters available at this year’s trade deadline:
Roy Halladay is 32 years old and has all of zero innings of postseason experience.
Cliff Lee is (almost) 31 years old and has all of zero innings of postseason experience.
See what fun stats can be when you neglect to use them properly? While Fraley wants you to think Kershaw’s lousy two postseason innings means he should still be in grade school, in reality they’re two more than Halladay and Lee combined.
Billingsley leads the rotation with 10 wins but has been erratic, with one win in his last nine starts. On Tuesday, Billingsley shut out the Cardinals for five innings but allowed six runs without getting out of the sixth. It marked the third time in Billingsley’s last four starts that he could not go six innings.
Wins are stupid, and I don’t care about them. Yes, Billingsley’s been slumping lately, but we’ve been through this. He’s still one of the best young pitchers in baseball.
Billingsley also carries the mental scars of last season’s poor performance against Philadelphia in the NL Championship Series.
He lost twice, allowing 10 earned runs in five innings. Billingsley also failed to respond in kind after Philadelphia’s Brett Myers brushed back Ramirez in the second game of the series.
No. This is so stupid it that it almost offends me. I’ve never even heard of Gerry Fraley, so clearly he’s not someone who follows the Dodgers closely. So what’s basically happening here is that Fraley remembered reading an equally ridiculous Bill Plaschke article last year, and decided to parrot that theme with zero research whatsoever. Well done, Gerry!
Of the other three starters, only right-hander Jason Schmidt has postseason experience, but he is a shell of his former self. After missing nearly two years because of shoulder problems, Schmidt has made two unimpressive starts as he tries to remake himself into a finesse pitcher.
You know, most of this has been just me making fun of Fraley’s ill-informed opinions, but here he’s just factually wrong. Nice to see he’s just wiped the memories of Hiroki Kuroda’s two excellent outings last October (12.1 IP, 2 ER) off the face of the earth. Good to see this guy collects a paycheck.
Right-hander Hiroki Kuroda, the opening-day starter, has also been ineffective since missing nearly two months because of a strained oblique muscle. He is 2-5 with a 4.85 ERA for 10 starts since returning.
Kuroda has actually lowered his WHIP, allowed fewer hits, and has struck out more in 2009 as compared to 2008. He’s had some hard-luck games, but he’s going to be just fine.
That leaves left-hander Randy Wolf, who has never pitched an inning in the postseason. Wolf is the club’s hard-luck pitcher of the season. The Dodgers have had seven blown saves behind Wolf.
And that is Wolf’s fault… how, exactly? Randy’s been solid this season, tied for the league lead in games started, and if his record doesn’t reflect his effectiveness, well that’s just because WINS DON’T MEAN A GODDAMN THING FOR A PITCHER.
It’s a stretch to count on the bad-karma pitcher in the playoffs. It’s a stretch for the Dodgers to count on any of their starting pitchers in the playoffs.
So now we can’t count on Randy Wolf because he’s offended the sun god Ra and has “bad karma”, or something equally ridiculous. We can’t count on Clayton Kershaw even though he’s awesome because… I’m not even sure why. We can’t count on Hiroki Kuroda because he’s never pitched in the postseason, except that he has. We can’t count on Chad Billingsley because he’s been slumping, which is the only halfway plausible point, but he’s got enough history here that you of course count on him.
No, the only thing you really can’t count on is Gerry Fraley to write an informed article. Look, I’m not against the idea of getting Roy Halladay, if it’s for the right price. The fact that the Phillies had to give up zero members of their major league club and none of their top 4 prospects might drag down Halladay’s price, so if we can do it for a package along the lines of Elbert/Bell/DeJesus/Lambo, hell, I’m in. But it’s just crazy to take the idea that the Cardinals pitching shut down the struggling Dodgers offense, and make it out to be that the Dodgers couldn’t hit because they can’t pitch. Even though they can.
And There’s Your Ace
July 29, 2009 at 8:15 pm | Posted in Clayton Kershaw, Delwyn Young, Eric Stults, Jason Schmidt | 10 Comments
(Update: Okay, I wrote this as the Dodgers were in the process of blowing two saves. They’re currently in the 12th inning, tied 2-2. Depending on how this ends, this post might look really out of place. But you know what? Clayton Kershaw RULES, and nothing that happens in this game is going to change that.)
You want an ace? You’ve had a problem with recent weak outings from the rotation? Or with the fact that they don’t work deep into games? Well, how’s 8 shutout innings against a team with the best hitter alive strike you? Not only that, but in a one-run game on the heels of the first three-game losing streak of the entire season? I wasn’t kidding when I said I wouldn’t trade Clayton Kershaw for Roy Halladay straight up, because even though I hate the word, Kershaw’s been absolutely nothing if not ace-like. Now, it’s true that Jonathan Broxton just blew it for Kershaw in the 9th (reason #10830371 why wins are a terrible pitching metric!!), but while that’s a worthwhile conversation, it’s also a separate one – it takes nothing away from how good Kershaw was in this game.
Look, what Kershaw is doing right now is simply unbelievable, as his 2.76 ERA is good for 11th in all of baseball. Forget his age for a moment, because the performances we’re seeing are outstanding no matter what year his was born. In the 9 starts since his 2.2 inning struggle on June 10, Kershaw’s pitched 56 2/3 innings… and given up all of five earned runs. That’s an ERA of 0.80, which would be awesome if it didn’t make the blood rush to my head hard enough to make me think I’m going to pass out. Really, you think there’s anyone in baseball that’s going to improve on that? There’s a pretty solid case to be made that Clayton Kershaw has been the best pitcher in baseball for the last two months, and that’s even with Mark Buehrle doing nothing but throwing perfect games lately (he gave up 8 ER in 3.1 IP four starts ago).
Oh, and he’s 21, and still improving. So there’s that. I don’t think this was ever really going to be an issue, so I can’t even get too mad about it, but how’s about we stop with the idea that it’d be fun to trade him, okay? Yes, I’m looking at you, Steve Phillips. Yes, it’s my own fault for ever listening to a word Steve Phillips says.
As for trades that were made today, let’s all take a moment to laugh at the Giants for trading top prospect Tim Alderson for second baseman Freddy Sanchez. Granted, second base is a huge black hole for San Francisco, and Sanchez is indeed an upgrade – except that he just missed the entire Giants/Pirates series with a bad knee. But at this cost? Well, it’s always fun to look around the internet and see Giant fans freaking out…
That’s the
report. I’m not disappointed the Giants have traded Alderson, but for a guy
who won’t hit with any power? Why? Why why why why why? Was it not possible to
put Alderson and a couple other prospects together for someone who can hit
cleanup? If Sanchez hits .330 / .380 / .460 down the stretch and the
Giants score five runs a game, I’ll be happy in a general sense. But I still
won’t be happy about this trade. Even worse, I’ll have to read for the next two
months the national punditry revving their LOLSABEAN engines yet again.
Sigh.
But this was an awful, stupid, and unbelievably short-sighted move. Bengie Molina
is on pace to become one
of the worst cleanup hitters in the last 50 years. Think about how special
that is. A lot of people have stunk in the last half-century, but we’re watching
one of the greatest stinks in the history of stink. As such, a
productive-for-his-position second baseman and a productive-for-his-new-team
first baseman isn’t the boiling water to our contending-flavored ramen. The
Giants needed someone who would have pushed Molina out of the cleanup spot.
And, just for fun, FanGraphs:
One of the most enjoyable parts of writing for a site like Fangraphs is
“hearing” the banter between writers behind the scenes. After news broke of the
Pittsburgh-San Francisco deal that saw second baseman Freddy Sanchez head from the Pirates to the Giants, these
comments were made from some of Fangraphs’ finest:“What the hell?”
“The best pitching prospect of the day doesn’t get traded for Cliff
Lee, but for Freddy Sanchez. Awesome. Nice job, Cleveland.”“My lord, Sabean, what are you doing?”
Just when you thought it was safe to love San Francisco prospects again,
general manager Brian Sabean tossed away the club’s second best pitching
prospect for an injury-prone, veteran second baseman in his free agent year
(although he has an $8 million option that is way too high). Oh, and the Giants
organization just gave away its third best pitching prospect (Scott Barnes) to the Indians for a league-average first
baseman. Madison Bumgarner is suddenly very, very lonely.
If you want to imagine what it’d be like if the Dodgers traded Kershaw, take that vitriol and multiply it by the intensity of forty billion suns. Not to be hyperbolic or anything, but I’m pretty sure that it would be the worst thing in the history of the human race.
The other big winner to come out of the Sanchez trade? Old friend Delwyn Young!
What the deal does is give Delwyn
Young a chance to get regular at-bats as the Pirates’ second baseman. The
27-year-old has definite offensive potential and has been waiting for a chance
to play every day, and it appears he might finally get his opportunity as the
team evaluates if he can be an option there in 2010. Young’s defense at second
base is still a work in progress, and is likely going to be a negative in terms
of holding on to a starting job. However, he could be a quietly effective
producer in deep mixed leagues, hitting for batting average with a little pop if
he gets regular at-bats down the stretch.
If you’ve followed this blog at all, you know we’ve been huge Delwyn supporters, so it’s great to see him finally get a chance.
But it can’t all be good news, can it? Of course not, because despite my best efforts, Jason Schmidt is getting another shot to start on Friday. The question I can’t seem to answer is, why? He’s proven completely that he’s cooked, and even Joe Torre admitted that Schmidt’s bullpen session was just “okay”. Why not bring back Eric Stults? He’s pitched exactly 6 innings in each of his last 4 AAA starts, giving up 2, 3, 2, and 2 earned runs. It’s not great, but you’re not looking for “great”. You’re looking for “5th starter acceptable,” and that’s exactly what Eric Stults is. Either way, it’s much better than “busted old man who ruins the bullpen,” i.e., “the Jason Schmidt special.”
Who Says Delwyn Young Couldn’t Field?
July 29, 2009 at 10:06 am | Posted in Delwyn Young | 3 CommentsI don’t care that he’s no longer a Dodger or that the umpire erroneously ruled this to not be a catch; this is still one of the greatest plays I’ve ever seen.
Casey Blake’s Turning Back Into a Pumpkin
July 28, 2009 at 8:15 am | Posted in Casey Blake, Tony Abreu | 6 CommentsI can’t say this is a surprise, because we’ve said this was going to happen more than once around here, but it looks like the inevitable is happening: the patented Casey Blake Second Half Slide. Blake’s been a notorious first half player over his career, losing over 50 points of OPS in the second half, but still: I’d held out just a bit of hope based on how well he played when Manny was gone. As I said on May 27th,
That’s besides the point, though, because Blake has really been a life-saver at the best possible time. I won’t even get on him for his inevitable second half slide (.813 career first-half OPS vs. .760 second-half OPS) because by that point, Manny will be back and you like to think that Ethier, Furcal, & the rest will have gotten going. We needed Casey Blake right now, and he’s done nothing but step up.
Unfortunately, we’ve now reached “second half slides-ville”, as he’s got just 7 hits in the last two weeks and is at just .225/.349/.338 with only 1 homer in the last month. It actually gets worse the further back you go, because since he hit his season high of OPS (.956) on May 26th, he’s spent the last two months being, well, lousy: .243/.333/.358 over the last two months, and just 3 homers.
I’m not here to pound on him, because he stepped up hugely when Manny was suspended, and it’s not like this isn’t a big feature of the Casey Blake package: it’s just what he does. Nor am I suggesting that we flat-out bench him, or try to acquire someone else via trade.
No, what the Dodgers ought to do is leverage the assets they have available. First of all, it’s time to platoon Blake a bit – he’s got a huge split, as he’s killing lefties (1.072 OPS) while struggling a bit against righties (.740 OPS). But it’s also time to add some new blood to third base, and I’m not talking about Mark Loretta. Remember Tony Abreu? Not only is he not dead, he’s tearing up the PCL (1.026 OPS!) and is particularly on a hot streak lately (.475 BA with 3 homers in his last 10 games). Injuries almost ruined his career, but don’t forget that we looked upon him as a huge part of the future at one point.
Why not give the old man a breather once or twice a week – which might also help his second half slide – while playing the hot hand in Abreu?
Anyone Still Think I Was Premature in Calling Schmidt’s Career DOA?
July 26, 2009 at 6:17 pm | Posted in Jason Schmidt | 16 CommentsLast week, I waited less than an inning into Jason Schmidt’s big comeback before declaring it a failure, causing some to call me out for impatience when he somehow held on for a win after I’d said:
This isn’t rust. This is, I’m sorry to say, a man who has nothing left. Joe Torre already announced that Schmidt was going to get a second start, but I can’t see any way you can run him out again and ruin the bullpen even more (James McDonald is already warming up).
So what do you do with him? I don’t know. It almost seems pointless to send him back to the minors; perhaps you can stick him in the pen and see if the velocity comes back if he’s only asked to go 1-2 innings at time; but you can’t let him start any more.
That he was able to turn it around somewhat after the first inning last week got him a second start today, and what do we get? A 3+ inning debacle. That’s now 8 innings in which he’s allowed 10 hits, 8 runs (7 earned), walked 4, and struck out just 3. Small sample size be damned; it’s beyond clear that he just doesn’t have it anymore.
This isn’t an Andruw Jones situation, because I do recognize that Schmidt has worked his ass off for two solid years to recover, and I respect the hard work he’s put in when he could have just as easily taken the money to sit on the couch, so this is nothing personal. It’s just the cold, hard, truth. He’s cooked, and you absolutely cannot torture the bullpen by letting him go out for another short start. I originally thought maybe it’d be worth a shot to put him into the bullpen to see if shorter stints would help the velocity come back, but I don’t even think it’s worth the trouble any more. He shouldn’t be taking up a roster spot when more talented players like Scott Elbert are still in the minors.
Cut him. DL him. It doesn’t matter. Appreciate the effort Jason, but it’s time to hang ‘em up.
So Much For a Quiet Rumor Season
July 26, 2009 at 1:54 pm | Posted in Chad Billingsley, Clayton Kershaw, Cliff Lee, Ken Rosenthal, Victor Martinez | 1 CommentWell, here’s something. Ken Rosenthal hits us with:
The Dodgers and Indians are in serious discussions about a blockbuster that would send left-hander Cliff Lee and catcher Victor Martinez to Los Angeles for first baseman James Loney, one of the Dodgers’ young starting pitchers and prospects, according to major-league sources.
Lee would replace either left-hander Clayton Kershaw or right-hander Chad Billingsley — it is not known which the Dodgers would part with in the package — giving manager Joe Torre the more experienced starter that he covets.
WHIP
Kershaw: 1.260
Billingsley: 1.286
Lee: 1.324
Kershaw: 8.8
Billingsley: 8.5
Lee: 6.4
Kershaw: .606
Billingsley: .689
Bigmouth Strikes Again
July 26, 2009 at 8:15 am | Posted in Bill Plaschke, Chad Billingsley | 8 Comments
Folks, meet William Plaschke Shakespeare. William Plaschke Shakespeare, the younger, less talented and evil twin brother of the great William Shakespeare, has struck the world with more blithering non-sense and even worse hypocrisy in his latest column.
Being prepared for this moment, I must first provide you with some background…
Growing up together, William Plaschke Shakespeare was always envious of his older brother’s work. After the elder William’s triumphant successes with “Romeo & Juliet,” “Hamlet,” “Lady MacBeth,” and more, William-Plaschke killed his older brother and immediately ran away to California, thus he was his only mother’s son, and a desperate one.
After awaiting the next 425 years to find work, he was hired by the L.A. Times in 1987. Since then, he has been extracting revenge on the audience that supported his brother through his miserable columns.
So, in his latest article, Plaschke, affectionately known as just WPS, argues that, essentially, the Dodgers don’t have an ace and, if they don’t get one, then they screwed!
Let’s take a look… hit it!:
There is nobody who will take the mound on a chilly fall night and
refuse to leave until morning. There is nobody who will grab the ball
in October and refuse to give it up until November.
Well, of course not. October is when Billingsley has his weekly canasta games, while Kershaw likes to keep tabs on his fantasy football teams. Wolf likes to go hiking, while Kuroda likes to spend the offseason pursuing a budding rap career. How can you blame them for not wanting to show up?
What a nice way to start this article off: blast the entire pitching staff’s character and motivations. Apparently, Plaschke can peer into the hearts of men. Neat trick. But while he derides their toughness, then we get this:
There is power here, there is speed here, there is brashness and belief and as much bullpen intensity as bullpen ivy.
So, on one hand, they’re weak and refuse to step on the mound in October, yet they’re brash and full of belief? Yeah, that really follows, William.
You win regular-season titles by using dozens of arms, but you win
championships with one, a guy who can carry the load and the pressure
and the strain.Yeah, an ace.
Wow, so if we get Roy Halladay, not only is he going to start for us, but he’s going to relieve himself, too?! OMG, OMG, OMG, OMG, OMG!!
Yeah, a moron.
During the last nine seasons, no world champion has had a starting
pitching staff that was ranked lower than ninth in the league in
innings pitched.The Dodgers’ starters currently rank 14th.
During that same time, no world championship bullpen was ranked in the top 10 in its league in innings pitched.
The Dodgers’ bullpen currently ranks second.
Wait, you mean World Series winners had a bullpen, too? But you said that all of them have this really supercool pitcher who can do it all by himself! Liar!
Seriously, this is such a meaningless statement, but also asinine. First off, Plaschke needs to show why starters throwing more innings and relievers throwing less innings pitched directly correlates into winning titles. I’m not saying it isn’t a preferable thing, it is, but he assumes that as long as the Dodgers fail to meet these goals sufficiently, then they’re not going to win the World Series, because past champions met the criteria while the Dodgers don’t. But he’s leaving out other factors. For starters, just because the pitching has thrown more innings, it doesn’t mean that they’ll be bad innings and, despite what Plaschke is assuming, you don’t win titles just solely on pitching, much less purely on how many innings they pitched.
Secondly, not all World Series winning pitching staffs are equal. In other words, just because you win a title, it doesn’t necessarily mean that you had elite pitching. Three of the top four pitching teams last year in ERA were everyone else that made the playoffs in the NL: the Dodgers, Brewers, and Cubs. The Phillies were middle of the pack. You can also have a non-World Series caliber team and have excellent pitching (see 2003 Dodgers). What he’s arguing just doesn’t follow.
And, yes, it’s tough to sell anyone on prospects when most scouts
believe that most great Dodgers prospects are already at the major
league level.But, hey, this is an organization that somehow acquired Manny Ramirez
for nothing, so surely there is something they can figure out.
Plaschke is suffering from the fallacy of equivocation on the word: “nothing.” If he means “nothing” in the sense of talent, then it’s just a false statement (see: LaRoche, Andy). If he means “nothing” in terms of money, that’s correct, but that’s completely separate from prospects. He’s using “nothing” in both senses or, at the very least, using it irresponsibly.
Coincidentally, Plaschke is also committing the fallacy of being a freaking moron. Yeah, we were able to get Manny free of charge last year, and while Ned gets big props for that, that was also a huge byproduct of Boston desperately wanting to get rid of Manny with the way things were going south.
They are a pitching staff that can lead the Dodgers to the league’s
best record,
Yet somehow that makes them…
But right now, they are a pitching staff filled only with decent arms
Yeah, gotta love that.
and daring souls and just enough heat to meld together the next two months.
Why, because you said so? And if that’s the case, then what’s the point of getting a Roy Halladay? If our staff falls apart, then not even he will save us. Oh yeah, that’s right, you said that these special cyborg, “ace” pitchers pitch all the time, right? Argh, now you’re lying again. Make up your mind, dammit!
but you know what that guarantees them? Ask the other best
teams from the last 15 years, and duck, as only one of them actually
won a World Series.
Yeah, so you know what would really help us, then? A big 8 game losing streak! Yeah, that’ll do it!
And it gets worse. From the caption:
Averaging 6 1/3 innings, Chad Billingsley doesn’t qualify as an ace.
Oh geez, so because he averages 6.3 innings per start, therefore, he’s
not “ace” enough? Yeah, you know who also shouldn’t qualify as an
ace? Johan Santana. That average arm is only averaging 6.5 IP/9!
Jarrod Washburn?
Not much better. 6.6 IP/9. Should have looked this up, William.
There is no Cole Hamels, no Josh Beckett, no David Wells.
So, given that Cole Hamels is only averaging 5.8 IP/9, this season, does that mean that the Phillies have no ace, either? Oh yeah, the ace of the other team the Dodgers might see in the playoffs, Chris Carpenter, is averaging 6.6 IP/9, not too much better than Billingsley. So, no acehood yet for him, huh?
Given his experience, the man here should be Billingsley, but he still
needs to prove he has emotionally recovered from last fall’s two awful
starts against the Philadelphia Phillies, when he gave up 10 earned
runs in five innings.
Emotionally recover? What does that mean? What, does he need to go on “Dr. Phil” and bawl his eyes out or spend a month in Hawaii with Dr. Landy? Also, if you want to be consistent, C.C. Sabathia, a bonafide ace with lots of creamy veteran goodness and fits every criteria Plaschke sets in this article, not to mention also having a freaking 260 ERA+ with the Brewers last year to boot, also got totally shellacked by the Phillies in the playoffs, last year. Does he still need to prove that he’s emotionally recovered, as well?
Remember that? All the momentum the Dodgers built in a divisional
series sweep of the Chicago Cubs was wiped away with one Brett Myers
pitch behind Manny Ramirez’s behind.
Pardon my French, but: bullshit. The Dodgers came back after that miserable game 2 and won game 3 and were leading 5-3 in the 8th inning in game 4 until Cory Wade and Jonathan Broxton completely imploded and Matt Stairs essentially got a knife and twisted it in the heart of every fan in L.A. That’s when the momentum pretty much went to hell. Yet we don’t see any articles about how we should acquire an elite closer, do we? No, and for good reason.
Look, Billingsley’s been getting a lot of flack lately in all of these “we need an ace” articles, so can we just settle this now? Yeah? Alright, good…
This NLCS fiasco needs to go. Really, just stop. No, it’s not to exempt Billingsley: he sucked donkey balls. But for those who keep saying that he “needs to emotionally recover,” first off, what the hell do you mean? He’s been, for the most part, one of the better pitchers in the league for most of the season, including absolutely shutting down that Phillies team in a 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 BB, 9 K performance against them. The other problem is that if you’re going to accuse Billingsley of helping kill the momentum of the team last year, then you must also give him credit in sustaining it before that, namely his performance in the NLDS, when he went a commanding 6.2 IP, 1 ER, 1 BB, and 7 K against a 97 win, heavily favored Cubs team. Or when he threw some scoreless relief innings as a 21 year old in the 2006 NLDS.
It’s simple: if he gets the blame for killing the momentum, then he should also get the credit for sustaining and building it through the NLDS. Similarly, if all of his troubles are essentially attributed to mental weaknesses, then his successes must be attributed to mental toughness. Why the asymmetry? Or do the latter instances not count? At least be consistent.
No Dodgers starter stood up then.
They need somebody to stand up now.
They need somebody to take the mound this October and stalk it, stomp
it, own it, because, as certain as browning leaves and buffeting winds,
another fight is coming.Yeah, an ace.
Don’t you love how whenever Plaschke wants to advocate the Dodgers to do something, he always words it like the freaking apocalypse is coming?
Yeah, a nincompoop.
So, to sum up, what have we learned on the blog, tonight, Vin?
Well, according to Bill Plaschke, we need to get an ace because, apparently, our starters want to vacation beginning October 1st and they don’t want to pitch until the morning. Here’s the kicker, and this has been somewhat of a theme, lately: notice how nearly all of these arguments are never really backed up with numbers, but merely attacks on character? In other words, forget the fact that the Dodgers’ pitching ranks the best overall ERA in baseball, and, statistically speaking, have an elite rotation and bullpen. Forget that; why? Because there’s no “big nerved, cold starting pitcher.” Because Clayton Kershaw isn’t going to walk up to the mound come October (if he even shows up, of course) and rip off his jersey and yell at the batter: “Whatcha gonna do when the Kershawmania comes after you… brother?!”
Basically, instead of realizing that a trade for this Halladay like figure would pretty much be a case of “the rich getting richer,” most of these so-called journalists feel the need to degrade the pitching staff in order to make some point. Look, of course getting a Halladay would make this staff better, and it would improve the team and give us a deadly staff come October… duh! But that doesn’t mean that the Dodgers haven’t had great pitching, as it is, and to argue otherwise is insane. Just because we had major pitching concerns coming into the season doesn’t mean that we necessarily do, now. Yet, for some mysterious reasons, these so-called journalists feel the need to degrade the pitching staff in order to make a point and, sadly, the guy who has taken the fire the most lately for it has been Chad Billingsley. He had a bad NLCS and apparently his regular season numbers aren’t enough to show how “emotionally recovered” he is, either because 1. the journalists are just flat out irresponsible and not bothering to look or 2. the numbers likely don’t carry much weight because it’s only the regular season and in order to “prove himself” he needs to show it in October.
But in this article, it’s likely the latter and note the contradiction. Plaschke doesn’t really seem to care about how the Dodgers’ pitching staff has done this year, instead making judgments on Chad Billingsley based on two games in the NLCS, and essentially tossing aside or at least not caring much about the great success of the pitching. But If we aren’t to place much emphasis in regular season numbers, as Plaschke has done with the Dodgers pitching, then that should also apply to Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee. After all, they’ve yet to throw a postseason game in their careers, so you’re essentially bolstering regular season numbers, too. But why is it O.K. with them, but what our staff has done over the course of the season (specifically Billingsley, in this article) is just sort of tossed aside? It’s inconsistent and dishonest.
But what else do you expect? It’s Plaschke.
Now it’s 8:14 A.M. I’ve yet to sleep. Goodnight!
- Vin 
How Many McCourt Sins?
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