2009 August « Mike Scioscia's tragic illness

Eric Stults Will Go At Least Six Innings Today

August 9, 2009 at 8:50 am | Posted in Eric Stults | 4 Comments

Looks like you can ignore all of my complaining about Scott Elbert not being put in a good situation to start today, because after his bullpen work, not only is he not starting, he’s not even on the team anymore, having been optioned to AAA to provide for Ronald Belisario’s return. In what has to be be one of the oddest sequences I can ever remember, Elbert was announced as the starter, only to be replaced by Jeff Weaver after Elbert had to be used, and then Weaver was replaced by “TBA” when he had to be used in relief.

So we spin that pitching wheel and land on… *no whammys, no whammys, stop*! Eric Stults! For the record, two of my three roster predictions from Friday have now taken place, and we’ve yet to see a corresponding roster move to make room for Stults. If James McDonald gets a one-way trip to New Mexico, I’m going to start buying lottery tickets.

As for Stults, this is clearly the right choice. It’s no secret that we’ve been fans of his for quite a while around here, and while he’s never going to be Clayton Kershaw, he has proven that he can have short bursts of success in the big leagues. And isn’t that all you need out of a 5th starter?

Stults has almost no history against Atlanta – only three current Braves have faced him, and each of those was only one at-bat each – but considering his history of getting off to good starts once he returns to the majors after a long layoff, that could work in his favor. Besides, he managed to go at least 6 innings in his last 5 starts in the minors, before being pulled after 3 IP on Thursday in anticipation of having to start for the big club this weekend.

Eric, we’ve been pulling for you all season around here. So no pressure or anything, but between that, the club wasting Kershaw’s great outing last night, and the uncertainty about Chad Billingsley’s leg, you really need to go at least 6 innings today and get this team a win. Aren’t you glad you’re back in the majors?

Timing Is Everything

August 8, 2009 at 12:30 pm | Posted in Jason Schmidt, Joe Torre, Scott Elbert | 5 Comments

Despite my recent wishes for Charlie Haeger or Eric Stults to replace Jason Schmidt in the rotation, I’m more than happy with Scott Elbert getting the start. (Wait, let’s not gloss over the obvious. No more Jason Schmidt! Hooray!!) As I said yesterday, I believe Elbert’s future is as a starter, so it’s great to see that the team might possibly agree.

But when you’ve got a young pitcher about to make his first major league start, wouldn’t you think you’d want to put him in the best possible position to succeed? Schmidt’s start was on Monday, but rather than having Elbert take it, Hiroki Kuroda is sliding back a day for it (ostensibly to “get him another day of rest”, but it’s clearly because the game against the Giants is far more important than the game against the Braves) – and that’s fine.

No, what gets me is that after Elbert pitched 0.1 of an inning on Thursday, getting the win against Atlanta, he was announced as the Sunday starter before Friday’s game. Granted, throwing 6 pitches in the Thursday game is barely even a side session, so the fact that a Sunday start would technically put him on “two days rest” isn’t a big deal. What is a big deal is the fact that even though Elbert was the Sunday starter going into Friday’s game, Joe Torre still brought him out of the bullpen into a tie game in the 12th. After a strikeout of Adam LaRoche, Yuni Escobar singles, scoring one of the two men Ramon Troncoso left, and then Ryan Church hit a three-run homer, effectively ending the game.

I understand why Torre wanted to have Elbert in there at this point – LaRoche is a lefty and Escobar has a reverse split, hitting worse against lefties than against righties – but at some point, don’t you have to worry about what you’re doing to your Sunday starter? Elbert’s now pitched in two of the three days previous to his first big league start, and while 19 pitches combined isn’t a huge amount, it’s also not the rest that most starting pitchers recieve. Besides, if you really wanted a lefty in that situation, then maybe you shouldn’t have wasted Hong-Chih Kuo on a one-out injury-replacement appearance after Chad Billingsley left the game.

It’s hard enough to be a starting pitcher in the big leagues, and I can’t even imagine how much harder it is to be doing it for the first time. We’ll have to see how much the added difficulty of the lack of rest has on Elbert – and if he ends up with a 2.2 inning outing that leads to a bullpen game, in addition to the uncertainty surrounding Billingsley, this could lead to huge problems headed into the biggest series of the year in San Francisco.

Let’s Shake Up That Roster

August 7, 2009 at 8:30 am | Posted in Eric Stults, James McDonald, Jason Schmidt, Scott Elbert, Tony Abreu | 8 Comments

Dylan Hernandez of the LA Times has some news on roster changes that are about to happen… and they feel a little familiar.

MSTI, July 28th:

But it’s also time to add some new blood to third base, and I’m not talking about Mark Loretta. Remember Tony Abreu? Not only is he not dead, he’s tearing up the PCL (1.026 OPS!) and is particularly on a hot streak lately (.475 BA with 3 homers in his last 10 games). Injuries almost ruined his career, but don’t forget that we looked upon him as a huge part of the future at one point.

Why not give the old man a breather once or twice a week – which might also help his second half slide – while playing the hot hand in Abreu?

Hernandez, today:

Infielder Tony Abreu is expected to be called up today from triple-A Albuquerque

Hey! That’s a great idea – wish I’d thought of it. Seriously, though, this can only help the team. Casey Blake has turned it around a bit lately (1.167 OPS over his last 8 games, though he still hasn’t homered in over a month), but he’s had a rough second half, and Orlando Hudson is coming off two lousy months of June and July. When you’ve got a guy like Abreu – and remember, talent has never been the issue with him, it’s health – tearing up AAA, you can’t help but want to see him in the bigs. Remember, Hudson isn’t signed for next year, and if he doesn’t turn it around, you wonder if they let him walk and see if Abreu can handle second base.

Moving on, after Hernandez also adds that Ronald Belisario’s return is imminent, we have news on the 5th spot in the rotation. Hmmm…

MSTI, August 6 (and about a dozen other times):

It’s not like there’s not other options; I detailed how great of an idea Charlie Haeger would be the other day, and we’ve been calling for Eric Stults – who’s only thrown a complete-game MLB shutout in each of the last two years! – all season.

Hernandez, today:

Eric Stults was pulled from his start in Albuquerque on Thursday night after only three innings, a sign that he could be promoted to replace Jason Schmidt as the Dodgers’ starter in San Francisco on Monday. Stults, who was in the rotation until a sprained thumb landed him on the disabled list on May 31, bumped fists with teammates and waved at Albuquerque Manager Tim Wallach as he exited the game.

Yes! Yeeesss! Please let this be true. There’s no way that Stults isn’t going to be more effective than Schmidt right now – none. I also wonder if part of this is to avoid the embarrassment of Schmidt having to go back to his former stomping grounds of SF and having him get lit up in front of all his old fans. There’s also the question about what happens to him. Does he get sent to the bullpen? DFA’d? Placed back on the DL? Does he simply walk away?

In fact, if we’re adding three players – Abreu, Belisario, and Stults – there’s quite a few roster decisions that need to be made. Since the usual option (send down Blake DeWitt!) has already been exhausted, I’m going to take a guess at what happens with no inside information whatsoever:

1) Schmidt gets moved off the 25-man roster for Stults. I doubt he hangs them up, and he’s clearly not one of the best 12 (okay, 20) pitchers right now, so the bullpen’s not the right option. I’ll go with a 90% chance of DL with a 10% chance of DFA.

2) Scott Elbert gets sent down to AAA to make room for Belisario. Elbert’s been very good in short bursts, but I can’t help thinking that his future is still as a starter, so he might be able to step into Stults’ rotation spot with the Isotopes to get some longer outings.

3) James McDonald gets sent down to AAA to make room for Abreu. To be honest, this was the hardest call, and I’m not sure I’m convinced they’d drop down to 12 pitchers, but unless there’s a DL stint coming for a position player I don’t know about, there’s no obvious choice to drop. Juan Castro’s the only even slight possibility, and he’s been very good as a caddy for Rafael Furcal, so I don’t see it.

Of course, now that I’ve made these three predictions, expect exactly zero them to happen.

O.K., Andre Ethier REALLY, REALLY, REALLY Loves Walk-Off Wins

August 6, 2009 at 10:50 pm | Posted in 2009 rules so far, Andre Ethier | 4 Comments

He’s at it again:

Way to save our ass again, Andre.

(See: O.K., Andre Ethier REALLY, REALLY Loves Walk-Off Wins, from June 30th, 2009)

- Vin

Free… Anyone Who’s Not Jason Schmidt!

August 6, 2009 at 5:24 am | Posted in Jason Schmidt | 10 Comments

Yes, I’ve written this post before. (More than once.) No, I don’t enjoy dumping on someone who obviously worked his ass off to rehab and help the team, and who’s about to see their career end. But, come on – how long are we going to keep up this charade? If everyone’s big complaint is that 5-6 inning starts from Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw are straining the bullpen, what about the guy who’s averaging just over 4 innings a start, and who hasn’t even made it out of the 4th inning in two of his four starts?

I know, “but MSTI – one of those four starts was a six inning outing in which he gave up just one hit and zero runs”, and that’s nice. But really, we’re going to look at that and think he was overpowering? Don’t forget what Chipper Jones said afterwards:

There’s just not that much difference between his changeup and his fastball right now.

Is that really engendering much confidence? There’s been about three pitchers in big league history who could win with an average fastball of 86 MPH and a changeup of 83 MPH, and Jason Schmidt’s not one of them. Here’s the most amazing stat, though: when Schmidt gets the ball in the strike zone, batters are making contact 91% of the time. When you can’t throw the ball over the plate because you know it’s going to get whacked, and you can’t get batters to chase your other stuff, how are you going to be successful? The answer is, of course, that you can’t.

Look, what this team needs from its lower-level starting pitchers right now is innings. At this point, I’d rather see our 5th starter go 8 innings allowing 4 runs than 5 shutout innings. There’s a whole lot of meaningless innings to swallow up between now and October, and we need someone who can take them. It’s not like there’s not other options; I detailed how great of an idea Charlie Haeger would be the other day, and we’ve been calling for Eric Stults – who’s only thrown a complete-game MLB shutout in each of the last two years! – all season.

The Jason Schmidt experiment needs to end. He’s not helping the team down the stretch; he’s not going to be on the playoff roster; and he’s not going to be a Dodger in 2010. So what exactly are we still doing with him?

Joe, are you listening?

Torre said that Schmidt is still scheduled to start again for the Dodgers when the fifth spot in the rotation comes up again next Monday. “He’s scheduled for Monday and we’ll go from there,” Torre said. “Last time was good. This time wasn’t as good as last time.”

Faaaaantastic.

Free Charlie Haeger!

August 4, 2009 at 4:25 pm | Posted in Charlie Haeger, Clayton Kershaw | 23 Comments

I’m certainly not going to let one lousy start by Clayton Kershaw sway my confidence in him, not after how amazing he’d been in the two months prior. It’s just that something I read on Baseball Prospectus this morning really caught my eye:

Usually it’s a 30-inning increase where I worry, but man, Clayton Kershaw seemed to really hit a wall at a 20-inning mark, losing complete control and composure. Let’s see how he does his next time out, and facing that 30-inning mark.

Again, I’m by no means saying that his lousy outing yesterday is a sign of impending doom or anything like that, but the fact is that he’s now made it to 20 innings more than last year, and with at least 2 and hopefully 3 solid months of baseball remaining, it’s worth wondering where you want to expend those innings. As I said before the trade deadline, I have a lot of confidence in Kershaw going into October – but not as much if he’s already at 80 innings over 2008 before the playoffs hit.

The Dodgers, at 65-41, have 56 games remaining before the playoffs. If the current starting rotation were to hold until the end of the year – I know, I know, Jason Schmidt can’t possibly last that long, just bear with me – that’d be 11 starts remaining for each of the starters, plus 1. Giving Kershaw 6 innings per outing, that’s an extra 66 innings on top of his current 124.2, pushing him up to about 190 innings, which is a big enough jump without considering that October would put him over 200.

Now, it’s not completely as bad as it sounds, because the quote from BP is only considering MLB innings, while if you consider the 61.1 minor league innings he threw last year, he hasn’t yet equalled his total of 169 2008 innings. That said, there’s a case to be made that minor league innings aren’t as strenuous as major league innings, but that’s something that’s not easily quantifiable, so we’ll set it aside for the moment.

The fact remains, though, that the Dodgers are in an enviable situation in having the largest division lead in baseball – the latest BP Playoff Odds report has them with a 91.36% chance of winning the division, and a 98.8% chance of making the playoffs. You hate to ever admit it, but it’s true – not every game is that important right now. That being the case, why not skip three or four of Kershaw’s remaining starts? If you can keep him to 7 more starts, that’s 42-ish innings on top of his current 124.2, putting him at 166 – almost exactly what he threw last year, and still giving him some bullets left in the arm in October.

Even better, it’s not as though the Dodgers would have to go dig up the corpse of Shawn Estes (and really, how stupid is that decision looking right now for him?) Not only is MSTI fave Eric Stults down there (6 IP in 5 starts in a row), but you’ve got exactly what the Dodgers need right now: PCL All-Star Charlie Haeger. Regardless of anything else, he’s been good, because just look at his last three starts:

August 2 @ Nashville: 6 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 8 K, 3 BB
July 28 vs. Okla. City: 9 IP, 11 H, 2 ER, 5 K, 2 BB
July 23 @ Round Rock: 9 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 12 K, 2 BB

That’s two complete games and three earned runs allowed in his last three starts, and despite being a knuckleballer in the high-altitude fun of Albuquerque, he’s got a 3.48 ERA, good for 9th in the the PCL, while – and wait for it, because this is the important part – leading the league in innings pitched, at 140.2.

Look, it’s one thing if he’s the whipping boy who stays out to take punishment, but how is this not exactly what this staff needs? An innings-eater who’s getting guys out, and even has a little major league experience to boot? I’ll take one of those every day and twice on Sunday. I don’t see any downside to getting him up here ASAP to start swallowing up some of those meaningless innings between now and October, while saving the valuable arm of Kershaw to boot.

Plus, he’s a knuckleballer. And who the hell doesn’t want to see a knuckleballer? Besides, I guarantee you he’s more effective than Jason Schmidt.

Free Charlie Haeger!

Okay, I Guess Jason Schmidt Is Good For Something

August 2, 2009 at 7:27 pm | Posted in Jason Schmidt | 8 Comments

He might be our best pinch-hitter right now!

Somewhere In New York, MSTI’s Head Has Exploded

August 1, 2009 at 7:50 am | Posted in Andre Ethier, George Sherrill, Jason Schmidt, Miss Cleo | 5 Comments

So, I know what some of you are thinking.

“Oh, MSTI, you have some ‘splaining to do! Schmidt picked up another win. HA!”

But, see, guys, he doesn’t have to admit any wrongdoing. In fact, I argue, we should be thanking the man. Let’s go back through the history, this year:

On May 13th, 2009, MSTI writes about James Loney’s inability to hit a HR.

The next two games? Two HR’s!

On June 18th, 2009, MSTI then posts about Russell Martin’s issues and lack of power.

Two days later, he hits his first HR.

On July 20th, 2009, Jason Schmidt returns to the mound. He has a horrific first inning. During the first inning, MSTI says it’s all over for Schmidt.

Three hours later? His first win in two years.

MSTI doesn’t post about Schmidt before his second start and he gets shelled against Florida.

Right afterwards, MSTI again calls Schmidt done.

His next start? Somehow, Christopher Lloyd comes out of the woodwork, turns the clock back to 2006, and Schmidt turns in his best performance as a Dodger and picks up another win!

I’m not sure what to call it, though. See, I don’t want to call it: “The MSTI Curse” because the word “curse” seems to imply something bad and obviously these effects have been anything but bad, so I’ll leave it to you guys to find the name. But either way, the effects have been quite nice and, by the way, do note the power that we here have at MSTI. When MSTI also took off for the weekend last June, I took over, only for the Dodgers to win their no-hit game against the Angels. He leaves again from mid-July through early August, and we get Manny.

The point? Don’t mess with us, my friends. And, dammit, if you see this man, buy him a beer!
Eat your heart out, Miss Cleo!

But on to the game and I’ll be brief with it
because there’s not much to say and it’s past 7 A.M. and I’ve yet to sleep. Anyways, Schmidt was pretty much unbelievable, today. He wasn’t necessarily dominating, but he was better than I ever thought we’d see, going 6 innings of 1 hit, scoreless baseball. The downside is he did walk 5 and struck out 3, but he seemed to have good control on his pitches, and his curveball was working. Even the fastball seemed to have, for the most part, a touch more velocity, occasionally hitting 87 MPH and, in the final inning, touching 89 MPH, which shocked me.

Now the big question: was it skill or more luck? To be honest, it seemed to be a bit of both. On one hand, Schmidt did look better than his previous starts, both in terms of stuff and velocity, but on the other hand, he also had the great fortunate of having a lot of the fly balls he gave up go to someone. In other words, even if the Braves hit a ball hard, it was going right at someone so, in that sense, he lucked out. Either way, it’s been a long road back, and while he can very likely implode from here on out, it was definitely impressive to see at least for one game and it was a game that was nice to win, after the mess in St. Louis. Other notes from the game: props to your reigning NL Player Of The Week, Andre Ethier, for his performance, hitting the 3 run HR and then picking up a key RBI double late in the game and also big props to George Sherrill, making his debut in the 7th inning in a two on, 0 out jam. Sherrill came on and proved why he’s death on lefties, striking out the side and allowing one walk. He looked lethal and if he can keep it up, our bullpen will just continue to be sick.

Overall, a nice win and, hey, whatdoyaknow, a two game winning streak. After this past week, a two game winning streak seemed long way away. Nonetheless, today’s game is at 1 P.M. on FOX and we see Lowe. Let’s win this ya, alright?

- Vin

Bigmouth Strikes Again, Part II

August 1, 2009 at 7:45 am | Posted in Bill Plaschke, Chad Billingsley, Clayton Kershaw | 3 Comments

Yes, folks, he’s back,. Actually, he was back yesterday, with some crap article on Manny which I’m not even going to link, but, for my own sanity, I skipped it. But today, I just can’t resist. I try to resist, I really do, but it’s just so hard. It’s therapy for me, despite the fact that with the amount of columns he’s putting out lately, we might have to rename ourselves: “Fire Bill Plaschke.com.”

Anyways, he’s back today, whining about the ace the Dodgers failed to get. Because pissing off Dodger fans wasn’t enough, he decides to also devote his article to pissing off Angels fans too, but, for the sake of brevity, I’ll just post most of the pertinent Dodger quotes. Ironically, his article is entitled: “Dodgers, Angels make risky bets,” but it’s not half as risky as if you actually read the whole thing. I assure you.

Take it away, WPS!

Both teams have done this before, refusing to imitate the big-market
swagger of the New York Yankees, shunning the win-it-now attitude of
the Boston Red Sox, preferring to trust stopwatches instead of wallets.

Refuse to imitate the “big market swagger?” Not opening up their wallets? Hey Kevin Malone, is that you? If not, then, here’s a bit of a history lesson, WPS… but… hey… do the names Kevin Brown, Darren Dreifort, Shawn Green, Jason Schmidt, J.D. Drew, Juan Pierre, and Andruw Jones ring a bell? And, hey, I can’t even stand the Angels, but Vladimir Guerrero, Bartolo Colon, Kelvim Escobar, Gary Matthews, Jr., and Torii Hunter are all on line one. Does it also ring a bell when the Dodgers have been, sans 2005, in the top 10 in payroll every year with payrolls very near, but mostly above $100 million? Same with the Angels since Arte took over. Not bad for a bunch of cheapasses!

Oh yeah, I forgot another thing: for all of your grumbling about these two teams constantly holding back, wasn’t it these two teams who, this time last year, made the two biggest blockbusters when the Angels got Teixiera and the Dodgers got… oh, what was his name again… ah, that’s right… Manny fucking Ramirez?! I figured YOU, out of all people, would know that, given your fetish with smearing him every chance you get since May.

It
suits local fans who feel as if they are growing up with the kids. It
suits local bankers by keeping their payrolls manageable.

Problem is, it doesn’t do much for the local ring industry.

So a team with young kids is detrimental to the “local ring industry?” And therefore, as WPS will imply later, that’s a reason why the Dodgers haven’t won in so long? Yeah, because you know what I’m really pissed off at over the past 21 years? That the Dodgers didn’t spend the 1990′s trading away MORE young talent and spending MORE money on older players and kissing away the future. Yeah, that’s right. In fact, Bill, there was a time when YOU were sick of it, too. Remember in 1999, which was, of course, a year after you advocated the Piazza trade (only to go 360 on it six months later, by the way), that you got sick of the Dodgers play to the point where you yourself advocated a youth movement to get back to “winning ways?” And that was all despite the fact that those Dodgers were in the midst of doing everything you’re advocating these Dodgers do now: establish themselves as that big market, “go for it now,” checkbook opening team. They even had the 7th highest payroll in all of baseball that year.

Didn’t quite help out that ring industry, did it?

In the last 21 years, the Dodgers and Angels have combined to win only one championship.

Really? Only one? So given that 21 years ago was 1988, did the A’s really win in 1988 or did the Giants really win in 2002 and that guy who used to be the Iraqi Information Minister is just lying to us? Dammit!

During that same time, the Yankees and Red Sox have combined to win six championships.

Hey, he might be able to count after all! Nonetheless, very deceptive, William. Did you also remember to mention that, while those Yankee teams did have their share of veterans, they also won their championships in the 1990′s on the backbone of players like Jeter, Williams, Pettitte, and Rivera? You know, all the guys who came out of their farm system. Thank God you weren’t in charge, though, because since Andy Pettitte’s first two postseason series (1995 and 1996 ALDS) weren’t anything to write home about (4 ER’s in each start), you would have shipped him out. And, remember, the Yankees of 1996-2000 weren’t the “hey, let’s spend more money than every team combined” Yankees of 2001-present. Yes, their payroll was always near or at the top, but it was at least very close. Ironically, this defeats your point: what have those big spending Yankees won in 9 years?

As for the Red Sox? I’ll concede that 2004 was largely a group of veterans, but 2007 is a bit different: what about the performances of Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Elsbury, Jon Lester, Daisuke Matzusaka, and even Kevin Youkillis, who was, for the most part, playing in his real first postseason (only 2 AB’s in 2004 playoffs)? Does that sound like the reckless “win it now” attitude you claim they have?

Yeah, I guess I can see your point; really didn’t do anything for the ring industry either, did it?

Billingsley has given up 22 runs in his last 26 1/3 innings and was rocked in two NL Championship Series starts last October.

And, in fact, totally rocked the Cubs in the NLDS that same postseason. Again, why is that forgotten?

Kershaw, still only 21, has given up only three earned runs in his last
38 innings, but his next playoff start will be his first.

Yo, Cliff Lee, here. I’m the guy that Plaschke advocated the Dodgers should get. But do you wanna know a secret? Do you promise not to tell? Cool. Well… the truth is, I haven’t ever started a postseason game either! Shhhhh… (whispers) seeeeeeecret…

Billingsley was one player the Dodgers could have traded without much uproar but didn’t.

Hey, wait… something doesn’t seem right here… didn’t you just say a few days ago…

No, you don’t trade Kershaw and, even though it’s tempting, you don’t trade a 24-year-old Billingsley.

Ah, he DID say that! You liar! I feel SO violated.

The Dodgers will fight through with a starting pitching tandem of Chad
Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw, both of whom have postseason talent
but lack postseason pedigree.

Two things, here. First off, which pitchers don’t “fight through?” Why is it just the Dodgers? Secondly, ignoring all the vaguery of the terms “postseason talent” and “postseason pedigree,” if WPS means “postseason pedigree” in the terms of them lacking postseason history and experience, then way to contradict the whole argument, for both Billingsley and Kershaw on their own have more postseason history and experience than either Halladay or Lee combined. So given that we’ve settled the “postseason pedigree” part of this, then that leaves us with the “postseason talent” aspect, which you say both Dodgers have. Now, surely, you think Halladay and Lee have them too. However, given your articles and the quote above, you seem to place a much greater emphasis on pedigree. So, given your stronger emphasis on “postseason pedigree,” then shouldn’t it logically follow that you advocate Billingsley and Kershaw above Halladay and Lee?

Colletti stuck with them. He will now have to win with them.

Correction: not only can he win with them, but they have won with them. In fact, if it weren’t for them, we wouldn’t even be having this discussion.

If Philadelphia shows up again, the young Dodgers have to keep down those pitches.

And, what, if we get to face Philadelphia, Lee gets to keep them up? What the hell does this mean? Only young pitchers get to keep their pitches down?