Chad Billingsley’s Earned a Playoff Start

September 30, 2009 at 8:50 am | In Chad Billingsley | 9 Comments

Once again, Chad Billingsley was fantastic through five innings. And once again, he fell apart in the sixth.

billingsleythrows.jpgBut here’s the kicker: I don’t know why that is, and right now, I don’t particularly care. This is clearly going to be an issue that he’ll need to overcome if he’s going to take the next step in his career, but for right now? For helping the team win in October? It doesn’t matter to me.

Dodger Thoughts has a great look at exactly how far he’s fallen off the cliff in the sixth inning in the last few months, but what’s important to me is how good he’s been in the first five. Just look at his two starts since returning to the rotation. On September 23 against the Nationals, he had a no-hitter through five innings before giving up a homer to Ryan Zimmerman in the sixth. Last night against the Padres, he gave up one hit – granted, a solo homer – before falling apart in the sixth.

So if you take just the first five innings of those two starts, you get: 10 IP, 1 hit, 1 run, 13 K, and 5 walks. Granted, the walks are more than you’d like to see, but how is anyone possibly complaining about a guy who strikes out 13 and allows 1 hit in 10 innings?

The point is, if Billingsley’s only a five-inning pitcher right now, so be it. The Dodgers more than have enough bullpen to back him up, and in a short series with off-days, there’s no worry about exhausting the pen.

What it really comes down to is, you’ve got nine innings to get through. Do you want five great innings from Billingsley, or seven mediocre ones from Jon Garland? I know which way I’m leaning.

 

Free Blake DeWitt!

September 29, 2009 at 6:50 pm | In Blake DeWitt, Juan Castro, Mark Loretta | 6 Comments

87toppsblakedewitt.jpgNot to completely nitpick here, since these games are obviously not the most meaningful in the world, and if they were meaningful, then Casey Blake and Ronnie Belliard would almost certainly be playing through their minor injuries. 

But can someone explain to me the lineup choices at the hot corner the last two nights? Last night it was Mark Loretta, who’s been absolutely worthless all season (particularly lately, with a horrific .246/.274/.281 in the last two months) and contributed a killer error. Tonight, it’s Juan Castro, whose season line might look okay, but that’s mostly because he had a 1.006 OPS on May 26 and a .511 OPS since.

Meanwhile, Blake DeWitt sits on the bench. No one’s suggesting that DeWitt’s the savior, and he was admittedly mediocre in AAA this year. It’s just that Castro’s 37 and has been an all-glove, no-hit guy for years. Loretta’s 38 and has been so bad this year that he’s probably looking at the end of his career. Conversely, DeWitt’s just 24 and showed plenty of promise when being pressed into service last year.

“Well, MSTI,” you’d say, before I punched you in the face. “The Pirates started a lefty yesterday, and the Padres are doing the same today. Loretta and Castro are both righties, while DeWitt’s a lefty. Gotta play the percentages!”

Hey! That would make sense! And it’s almost certainly what Torre’s thinking! Except, well, it doesn’t make sense. Partially, it doesn’t make sense because Loretta and Castro couldn’t hit off a tee right now, but mostly because DeWitt has a reverse split and is far better against lefties: in his career, he’s got a .676 OPS against righties, while he’s hitting .851 against lefties.

So, here’s what we’ve got. The younger player who can hit lefties and had some upside sits while two older players who can’t hit anyone – and let’s face it, their careers are over – play. Makes total sense!

There’s a Difference Between Being Stupid & Being Offensive…

September 29, 2009 at 9:00 am | In Matt Kemp, Paul Oberjuerge | 9 Comments

…and something called “Paul Oberjuerge” has completely crossed the line on this one. It’s not like we haven’t goofed on writers before, but it’s never been like this. Bill Plaschke gets the brunt of our wrath because he’s a two-faced negativity machine with a bizarre writing style, and most of the national guys we’ve discussed have just obviously never seen a Dodger game.

kemp.jpgBut I’m glad a friendly reader brought this to my attention, because this piece of crap is actively calling Matt Kemp stupid. Now, I’d never heard of Paul Oberjuerge, and this appears to be his blog, so I was going to ignore the rantings of another blogger. But I did some research, and Oberjuerge was apparently a real reporter at one time – best known, apparently, for being fired from the San Bernardino Sun, calling a transgendered female LA Times columnist “not an attractive woman”, and having a former employee of his write a scathing retort to that insensitivity. Plus, he mostly writes about soccer for the New York Times. So we can see what kind of winner we’re dealing with.

After starting out by decrying the horrific road trip the Dodgers just went on – which is true, we can get on with the fun:

Wait! Bone-headed plays, mental lapses, poor decisions?

That reminds me of Matt Kemp!

Matt Kemp gets lots of love, of late, for his raw talent. He was on espn.com’s MLB home page for most of a day, over the weekend, and was the subject of a fawning profile. “Emerging superstar” comes up a lot. Someone said something about how he will be a “top-five fantasy pick” in drafts next spring. Presumably because he steals bases as well as hit for power. Well and good.

Matt Kemp is, I’ve been saying for months, possibly the best center fielder in baseball, when you consider age, health, salary, and talent. Since when is being an emerging superstar who hits homers and steals bases a bad thing?

But imagine how good this guy would be if he weren’t an utter dolt.

Is there a dumber guy in baseball than Matt Kemp? Not talking real-world IQ (but maybe we could), but “dumb plays involving a guy who no longer is a kid.” Baseball IQ, that is.

And on that scale, is anyone dumber than Matt Kemp?

I’m already thinking that the answer to this question might be “Paul Oberjuerge”.

By the way, is this entire thing really going to be about him getting doubled off of second in yesterday’s meaningless game? This is going to be boring. I’m bored now.

Search your mind, for a moment, and consider how many times you have seen Matt Kemp thrown out on the bases. Yeah. A lot. Not as often as you’ve seen Juan Pierre ground out weakly to second (that’s a number in the hundreds), but a lot. Somebody somewhere must have that stat, Matt Kemp outs-made on basepaths …. and I will bet you $5 that (subtracting caught-stealing) no one in baseball has been tagged out on the bases more often than Matt Kemp.

I’m tempted to go with “if Matt Kemp’s getting thrown out on the bases, it’s in part due to the fact that he’s on base so much,” but instead I’ll go with the even-more-snarky, “My heavens, if only there was a statistic that measured baserunning!”

Oh, wait. There is. It’s called “Equivalent Baserunning Runs“, and it’s defined by Baseball Prospectus as a stat which “measures the number of runs contributed by a player’s advancement on the bases, above what would be expected based on the number and quality of the baserunning opportunities with which the player is presented, park-adjusted and based on a multi-year run expectancy table.”

So where does Matt Kemp rate on the Dodgers? Dead last, I assume. Oh, that’s right. He’s first, by a large margin – nearly double that of the second best, Rafael Furcal. That puts him at 42nd in baseball, which doesn’t sound all that great, but most of the guys ahead of him have speed as their only asset.

Now that you’ve been completely disproven, I assume you’ll apologize and we can move on. Yes?

Matt Kemp tries to take extra bases all the time. And often doesn’t make it. He gets doubled off a base. He strays too far off the bag and gets picked off. He’s just a disaster out there. And this has to do with a really low baseball IQ.

Or… not.

First of all, trying to take extra bases all the time is a good thing. Who wouldn’t want your talented speedster to be aggressive? Sure, he’s going to get nailed now and then, but who’s got a 100% success rate?

As far as blunders go, it sure seems to me that Oberjuerge hasn’t actually watched a Dodger game since 2006, when Kemp was a rookie and was making stupid mistakes. Considering that Kemp ought to be in the running for NL MVP this year, Oberjuerge’s really digging deep to find some nits to pick.

Some Matt Kemp gaffes (including one on defense) from just the past week:

-In Washington on Thursday, bottom of the sixth, lazy fly ball to left-center. Kemp is playing center. Manny Ramirez is playing left. Repeat: Manny Ramirez is playing left.

Kemp jogs over near to where the ball will come down. Manny does the same. Neither player calls for it. The ball falls untouched for a single. The Nationals go on to score twice in the inning to erase a 6-4 Dodgers lead.

This is Matt Kemp’s fault, 100 percent. He is playing next to Manny Ramirez, one of the worst defensive outfielders in baseball. (If not the worst.) Any ball Matt Kemp can reach, in left, he should take. Every time. Because Manny doesn’t do defense. Yet Kemp pulled up and, apparently, thought (if he thought at all) that Manny would catch the ball. Wrong. Wrong. Wrong.

Sure, this was Kemp’s fault – though I can certainly understand that you don’t want to run head-first into 200 pounds of Manny Ramirez. That said, what Paul’s saying here is that Kemp should have been more aggressive, despite the 10 preceding paragraphs decrying how he’s too aggressive on the bases. Way to be consistent!

Also, I’m not really sure what the point is here. Did I miss the season when no other player ever made a mistake, ever?  ”Oh no, Kemp made a mistake in the outfield! I demand that professional baseballers be held to the same standard I hold myself to, at least when I’m not publicly humiliating transgendered people for their looks! Kemp made a mistake and he’s not hitting 1.000/1.000/4.000, so he must be fired immediately!”

At the end of the inning, Dodgers broadcast analyst/apologist Steve “Psycho” Lyons talked about how playing center field is a learning experience for Matt Kemp.  This is the same Matt Kemp who is now 25 27 and has played 152 games in center field this year.

No, Psycho, there is no such thing as a learning experience for Matt Kemp. He is a gold fish in the fish bowl that is baseball; every trip around the same small world somehow is a brand-new experience for “Goldy” Kemp.

Sigh. This is not only unbelievably incorrect, it’s just getting mean. As every Dodger fan knows by now, Kemp came late to baseball – spending most of his youth playing basketball – and then was in the bigs by 21. Even then, he was a corner outfielder, not playing center regularly until midway through last year. So yes, he has been learning on the job, and we’ve seen him make marked improvements in the outfield. Plus, I wonder how long PO went with an outright mistake about Kemp’s age up there?

Also, what is with the outright cruelty and insulting of Kemp’s intelligence? This is really getting beyond a few blunders on the field and into something deeper.

-Top seven, same game, in Washington, no outs. Kemp hits a ball to deep left that Josh Willingham tracks to the wall … and doesn’t catch. The ball hits the top of the wall, falls to Willingham’s feet, and he can’t find it. He’s looking everywhere for it, and he’s almost standing on it. It’s almost comical.

Meanwhile, Matt Kemp is running … and as he rounds second base he becomes so engrossed by Willingham’s inability to find a ball lying at his feet (Kemp is staring out to left, as he runs) … that Kemp is no longer running toward third … he is running toward a point somewhere 30-40 feet up the foul line. When Kemp finally looks around to see where he is … he is in short left field and has to make something resembling a hard left turn to get to third base. Arguably, he could have scored if he hadn’t run 350 feet while getting to third base. Just another example of his brain-dead work on the basepaths. Oh, and he was stranded at third.

We can all agree that this didn’t really happen, right? See, here’s the thing about baseball, Paul. You don’t actually run in a straight line from base to base, stop on a dime, and turn 90 degrees to your left. You run in a bit of an arc when you think you might be able to take another base, to keep your momentum. Do I really have to explain this to you? Well, it seems that I do, so here’s a picture from that moment to illustrate:
 

kemproundsthird.jpg

It’s almost… as though he’s prepared to round third and dig for home. What a jerk!Besides, Matt Kemp crushed a ball and got a triple. Therefore, he must suck because no one else drove him in. Of course.

-Today, in Pittsburgh. Top second, scoreless game. Matt Kemp leading off. He reaches second on the Pirates’ second error of the game. James Loney follows with a shallow pop to shortstop … which turns into a doubleplay when lookie-loo Matt Kemp decides to jog about halfway to third … and can’t get back to second in time to avoid being doubled up.

If he says alive, maybe he scores when the next batter, Mark Loretta, singles, and the Dodgers lead, and perhaps what finished as an 11-1 humiliation goes in some other direction entirely (Pittsburgh’s first five runs were unearned, by the way) and the Dodgers did the champagne in the clubhouse thing today — instead of lugging it all to San Diego for a game tomorrow.

I love this. If Matt Kemp doesn’t get doubled off of second, then Loretta won’t make a killer error and Hiroki Kuroda won’t give up a billion hits. Clearly, Kuroda was all set to throw a perfect game – on 27 pitches, mind you – but then he saw Kemp get doubled off, and he was so crestfallen that he could barely drag himself to the mound to get hammered.

Also, look how far out the Pittsburgh SS had to run to get this:

kempdoubledoff.jpgHe then turned, threw across his body, and delivered a strike to second that got Kemp by a whisker. It was a fantastic play, and while Kemp was slightly too aggressive here, it’s hardly what caused the Dodgers to lose. So, shut up, Paul.

I’ve been thinking about this for some time, while watching Matt Kemp play. And marveling at what a complete dope he is. He is a valuable player because he does so many things so easily … hit, hit for power, run. But he could do so much more if he brought, say, the brain of Torii Hunter to the game instead of the brain of Abby Normal. (“Young Frankenstein” reference there.)

Are we sure this guy is a professional journalist? Because calling someone “a complete dope” – multiple times - is hardly professional, especially when he’s got so little to back it up.

Also, nothing against Torii Hunter, who’s an excellent player, and by all accounts an even better person, but it’s hardly as though he’s walking on water out on the field. This is just from the first two pages of Google results for “Torii Hunter baserunning mistakes”:

Hunter vows not to repeat baserunning blunder:

Torii Hunter was in full mea culpa mode Friday, taking responsibility for Wednesday night’s gaffe, when he forgot there were only two outs, pulled up between second and third base and was tagged out in a rundown against the New York Mets.

OC Register Angels blog, 2008 ALDS:

The Angels could have put together a game-winning rally three innings earlier than they did last night. But Torii Hunter was guilty of a baserunning decision every bit as bad as Vladimir Guerrero’s ill-conceived first-to-not-quite-third dash in the eighth inning of Game 1.

With Game 3 tied and Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon on the mound, Hunter led off the ninth and lashed a hit down the third base line. Sox left fielder Jason Bay hustled over to retrieve the ball as Hunter rounded first – and kept going.

He was thrown out by a good 10 feet or more at second base, short-circuiting any ninth-inning rally.

Twins blog, 2007:

This is not smart baseball.  They need to get smart about hitting and all other aspects of the game.  Torii Hunter often makes stupid baserunning mistakes, strikes out on pitches in the dirt, dives for balls he has no chance of getting etc.  Of course he is not the only one!  Sometimes being smart means not thinking too much. 

The point, again, is not to bash Torii Hunter. It’s just to show Paul Oberjuerge – ah, hell, let’s dispense with the formalities and just start calling him “a complete dope” - that everyone makes mistakes, even long-time veterans.

I have been wondering when was the last time I saw someone with that much talent do so many stupid things, and wondering if Raul Mondesi or Pedro Guerrero could rival Matt Kemp for the sheer volume of bone-headed plays … and thinking, “No. Probably not.”

I have been wondering if the geniuses at ESPN or the LA Times could write such stupid things, and wondering if John Kruk or Bill Plaschke could rival Paul Oberjuerge for the sheer volume of ill-informed, vitriolic writing… and thinking, “No. Probably not.”

Update: Fantastic timing, as Eric Neel has a great article on Kemp’s maturation today at ESPN.com – well worth a read.

The work is working. He leads the Dodgers in batting average (.305 through Sept. 17), runs (90), hits (168) and stolen bases (33). He tops all major league centerfielders in slugging (.504), not to mention assists (13). He has improved his home run rate from every 36.5 plate appearances to 25.3 and his walk rate from every 14.3 PAs to 12.4.

I Suppose I Should Have Seen This Coming

September 27, 2009 at 6:42 pm | In 2009 rules so far | 2 Comments

I was off this weekend at a wedding, in which I was best man. As with most weddings, the groom got his groomsmen gifts, and one of mine (in addition to a most excellent official 1988 World Series Program and hat) happened to be a gag gift.

Wait for it…

Wait for it…

juanpierrewoodshirt.jpg

Of course. What else could it have been?

Andre Ethier Really, Really, Really, Really Likes Walk Offs! Oh, Wait…

September 27, 2009 at 3:00 pm | In Andre Ethier, Jonathan Broxton, Rafael Furcal | Leave a Comment

Well, that just really screwed up plans, today.  Here I was, getting ready to celebrate the 2nd BroxtonMartinPirates92709.jpgstraight divisional crown and already looking forward to it, and thinking of the champagne drenched celebrations… 

Unfortunately, by the looks of the bottom of the 9th inning, so were the Dodgers.  I’m not sure there’s much to say about today’s game that hasn’t already been said.  What looked to be another nice comeback by the Dodgers in late innings ended in a total nightmare, as Jonathan Broxton came in and helped cough up four runs to the freaking Pirates, who came back to win 6-5, after trailing 5-2 to begin the bottom of the ninth. 

As can be the case when Broxton loses a lead, he had some big help in this, and today he was assisted by a botched double play attempt by Rafael Furcal and then Andre Ethier capped off the whole thing by missing the ball on the single by Lastings Miledge, which enabled the winning run to score.  Quite an ugly inning and just about everything that you could imagine going wrong, well, just about did. 

Despite the magic number still remaining one and the Dodgers still probably winning the NL West (and can still do it today, if Colorado loses, by the way), it’s still anything but a meaningless loss.  It counts, folks, and precisely due to the Dodgers trying to still hold on to home field advantage in the playoffs.  As things look right now, Philadelphia has just beaten Milwaukee 6-5 to narrow in on the Dodgers by 2.5 games, with the Rockies currently leading the Cardinals 4-3 in the 7th.

For as nice as it would be to wrap up the division as soon as possible and just have Colorado lose today, it would be in the Dodgers’ best interest if the Rockies beat St. Louis, today.  If St. Louis wins, they will then be 2 behind the Dodgers in the home field advantage race.  It’s a bit of a tough spot, which is why the Dodgers needed this win: on one hand, you want the Rockies to lose to just end this, on the other hand, you need them to win to keep St. Louis off your back, but wait, no, you also want the Braves to surpass the Rockies and… ARGH!! 

So, either way, the Dodgers will be back out there tomorrow, although remember: it’s a 9:35 A.M., PST, start time. 

- Vin vinscully-face.jpg

Hey, Lookie Here: The Playoffs!

September 27, 2009 at 1:00 pm | In 2009 rules so far | Leave a Comment

Sorry for the delay here, guys.  MSTI has been busy this weekend, leaving the ship to me, and DodgersPirates926092.jpgyou know how that goes (just Vin Being Vin).  But I’m here now, albeit a tad late, as I got back from the Coliseum pretty late last night and just dropped.  But I did notice something notable happen, last night.   

I noted that the Dodgers have clinched their 4th playoff berth in their last 6 seasons.  They did it in interesting style last night, leading the Pirates 3-1 for most of the game before the bullpen coughed up three runs in the 7th, only for the Pirates to cough up four runs right after that, and then an additional one in the 9th off a solo HR by Ronnie Belliard, who continues to impress. 

From the pitching side of things, Randy Wolf was great, as usual, going 6.1 IP, giving up 2 ER, while walking 1 and striking out 5, before the bullpen had a bit of issues in the 7th.  But fortunately the Pirates bullpen also had issues, walking everyone and their mother, until Jim Thome broke it open with a single to make it 7-4 and then Ronnie Belliard capping it off in the 9th with a solo HR to give the Dodgers the victory and a playoff berth. 

So here’s the way things sit, right now: 

The Dodgers have now clinched a playoff berth.  That’s done.  So now the magic number to clinch the division is actually 1, not 2 as some might think.  The reason is because the Dodgers have won the season series against the Rockies, 12-3.  So if the Dodgers can pull it out today, then guess what?  We win the division!  As I type this, it’s 2-2 in the 7th, although even if the Dodgers do clinch the division today, the work isn’t over yet, as they still have to fight off Philadelphia and St. Louis for the best record in the NL, for home field advantage in the playoffs.  Should be fun! 

- Vin vinscully-face.jpg

In Which We Dump On the Phillies

September 25, 2009 at 9:48 am | In 2009 rules so far, Brad Lidge, Chan Ho Park, Jimmy Rollins, Rafael Furcal, Raul Ibanez, Ryan Howard | 5 Comments

“The Dodgers can’t win because they don’t have an ace,” we’ve been hearing for months.

“The Dodgers starting pitching is full of questions,” we read. (Seriously, Kruk? The Red Sox have zero holes? When they don’t know who their #3 starter is, and when you even point out in the same article that their middle relief has issues? ESPN: your home for idiocy.)

“The Dodgers have plenty of reasons to worry,” says Ken Rosenthal.

It’s as though this team doesn’t have the best record in the league anymore, right? And at 14-7 in September, they’re not struggling down the stretch. Yet everyone is convinced they’re going to be huge underdogs in the first round regardless of who they play.

Well, it’s looking more and more like that first-round opponent is going to be the Phillies, and they’re hardly without problems of their own. No disrespect to the Phillies, who’ve had a solid season and obviously bounced the the Dodgers in the NLCS on the way to a title last year, but this is not a team without their own faults. To wit:


lidgesweats.jpgRemember when Brad Lidge was the best closer in baseball? Yeah, me neither.

It’s never a good sign when Baseball Prospectus is doing articles on you that don’t just point out how bad you’ve been this season, but try to properly place you in the annals of historic awfulness. This is a guy who would have stood out on the 1962 Mets:

As the data in this article suggests, this is not merely a poorly closed season, but rather one of the worst two or three closed seasons in major league history, if not the worst-closed season ever. Only four closers since 1954 have been given the opportunity to save games while posting ERAs north of 6.00, a list on which Lidge currently sports the second-worst mark. There have also only been nine pitcher-seasons in the same span throughout which a reliever had the opportunity to save 30 or more games with a WXRL below -1.00 wins, a list that Lidge’s current -1.93 mark tops.

That article is a few weeks old, so the stats may have changed, but they’re certainly not getting better. He blew another save against the Marlins on Wednesday, prompting Jayson Stark to report:

But after Lidge’s latest blown-save nightmare Wednesday in Florida, one scout in attendance reported that Lidge “is pitching with little or no confidence or conviction.” And boy, is that the understatement of the millennium.

Of the 22 pitches he threw, only 12 were strikes. And of the six balls in the strike zone that the Marlins swung at, according to pitch FX, the four they put in play went: hit, line-drive out, hit, hit.

In other words, when he throws a strikes these days, it’s turned into batting practice. And every other pitch he throws is an attempt to trick the hitter into swinging at a pitch that isn’t a strike. I regret to report, however, that every team in the league has caught onto that.

Just remember that, impatient jackasses who whine whenever Jonathan Broxton is so brazen as to allow a baserunner.

Okay, so Lidge is toast. Where do the Phillies turn? If Broxton went down, George Sherrill could step right in, and beyond him there’s worse ideas than giving Belisario/Troncoso/Kuo a crack. Oh, right…

You wouldn’t believe who might have to step in for Lidge if I told you.

Former closer Brett Myers had missed most of the season with a hip injury, and had been expected to step in and help Lidge out – except he’s now sidelined with shoulder soreness. From the same Stark article, an explanation of other Phillies options:

So why haven’t the Phillies pulled the plug on Lidge? Because manager Charlie Manuel finally concluded this month that he had nowhere else to turn.

According to one friend of Manuel, the manager came to the conclusion that A) Ryan Madson isn’t ready to close, B) the rest of his bullpen is a M*A*S*H* unit and C) it’s not as if the ninth inning is the only inning the Phillies have to cover. So Manuel’s inclination was to leave Madson in his eighth-inning comfort zone and pray that Lidge figures it out.

So if not Madson or Myers, then who?

Wait for it….

wait for it…

Here’s the same scout’s surprising nomination for an emergency closer: Chan Ho Park, if his hamstring heals up: “Throws strikes. Handles pressure. And has stuff.”

Before he got hurt, Park had a 1.84 ERA over his last 34 appearances, with 44 strikeouts in 44 innings. But in 432 career trips to the old pitcher’s mound, he’s converted exactly two of them into saves.

Yes! Old friend Corpsey McPark. That’s really who you want to go into a 9th inning playoff situation with, isn’t it?

But wait, the Phillies still have some more issues to contend with!

The clock has struck midnight on Raul Ibanez.

“Hey, 33 homers and a .912 OPS? That’s pretty impressive, what’s there to complain about?”

Ah, but there’s much more to it. In much the same way I’ve been trying to explain that just because Orlando Hudson was great at the beginning of the year – and James Loney sucked for four months – doesn’t neccessarily mean that’s how they’ll be in October, Ibanez has been on an enormous downturn for two months now.

On July 20th, Ibanez hit his 25th homer in his 68th game of the year to help beat the Cubs 10-1, and on that day his line stood at .315/.374/.674 for a 1.048 OPS, his high-water mark, and he was the subject of numerous success-story articles.

Since then? Ibanez has played in 57 games and, well, let’s just say he hasn’t quite been the same: just 8 homers and a .227/.311/.419 (.730 OPS) line. Maybe he’s getting old, maybe he’s getting injured, who cares. The fact is, despite what his season long stats will say, he is not the same player now that he was in April. 

Just remember this when you read the inevitable slew of “Manny’s not the same player” stories, because his line since July 20th – remember, dealing with a bad hand much of that time – is .273/.387/.505, which may not be vintage Manny, but a .892 OPS is still 162 points higher than Ibanez. 

Their most dangerous hitter is an absolute joke against lefties – and the Dodgers will almost certainly lead off with Randy Wolf and Clayton Kershaw.

Ryan Howard is a beast, no doubt about it. This is his 4th year in a row topping 40 homers, and he leads the league in RBI while being 3rd in total bases and 5th in SLG. Even scarier, he’s no creation of cozy Citizens Bank Park, as his OPS on the road is actually 41 points higher, and he’s hit 26 homers on the road as compared to 16 at home.

The man simply eats fastballs for breakfast. Along with what I can only assume is a copious helping of eggs, sausage, bacon, and large animals.

So what’s the problem? Ah, yes. It’s that against fellow lefties, murderous Ryan Howard becomes one of the worst hitters in all of baseball, with a puny .197/.289/.352 line (.641 OPS) and only 6 homers.

howardwhiffs.jpgActually, I’m not exaggerating when I say that. He’s literally one of the worst hitters in baseball against lefties. Check it out – there’s 176 players in MLB this year with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title. Let’s look at the bottom 5 in OPS:

.612 Emilio Bonifacio  
.615 Yuniesky Betancourt
.625 Jason Kendall
.635 Edgar Renteria
.655 David Eckstein
.655 Kaz Matsui

Not a typo, friends. When Ryan Howard hits against lefties, he’s the 5th worst hitter in all of baseball. Ryan Howard is less dangerous than magical pixie elf David Eckstein, and he hits with a tiny candy cane!

Against Kershaw and Wolf, Howard has just 2 hits in 21 plate appearances. So go ahead, write all the articles you want about how James Loney is SO inferior to Howard. Against Kershaw & Wolf in the first two games, and with George Sherrill and Hong-Chih Kuo in the pen, Howard’s a complete non-factor.

Their crappy veteran star shortstop is even worse than our crappy veteran star shortstop.

We’ve been complaining about Rafael Furcal’s mediocrity all year and begging Joe Torre to take him out of the leadoff spot; it was only a month ago where he was carrying a line of .253/.319/.344, a lousy .663 OPS. While he’s stayed off the DL, how much of an effect last year’s back surgery has had on him is anyone’s guess. Maybe he’s still feeling it, and maybe this is just what kind of player he is right now.

However, at least Furcal’s turning it around of late. In his last 24 games, he’s put up a scintillating .343/.405/.556 (.961 OPS), bumping his season OPS up to .714. If he’s really been working through his recovery all year, and only now is truly healthy, then this team might have a real weapon back on their hands – regardless of his season line.

But over in Philadelphia, Jimmy Rollins has been even worse. Since winning the 2007 NL MVP, Rollins’ OPS has dropped from .875 to .786 to .708, with a laughable .297 OBP. He had his own very nice hot streak in July, but has since sunk back to usual levels.

Put it this way: for most of the year, Rafael Furcal has been mediocre at best… and Jimmy Rollins has been worse. Now Furcal’s heating up, and Rollins is cooling off. Advantage: Dodgers.

*****

Again, none of this is to suggest that the series would be a pushover. Cliff Lee is of course superb, Cole Hamels is rounding back into 2008 form, and Chase Utley & Jayson Werth are dangerous weapons. It’s just to point out that the Dodgers aren’t the only team with serious questions.

***** 

I’m off to a wedding for the weekend, we’ll leave you in the capable hands of Vin. Enjoy watching 800 people in the stands at the Pirates games because of the G-20 and the team’s overwhelming – and historical – awfulness.

I Told You That Game Would Be Interesting!

September 23, 2009 at 7:45 pm | In Chad Billingsley, George Sherrill, Orlando Hudson, Ronnie Belliard | 5 Comments

Sure, they lost, in a particularly ugly fashion. But it really doesn’t matter. So much happened!


billingsleyvsnats.jpgWelcome back, Chad Billingsley
!

Yes, he hung a breaking ball to Ryan Zimmerman that ended up in the left field bullpen for a three run homer that tainted his night. Yes, there’s a bit of a worry that he imploded again in the 5th or 6th inning. But you know what? I’m taking this as a win, a big win. 4 walks is of course not a great thing, but taking a no-hitter (with 9 K’s!) into the 6th inning? Uh, yeah. I’ll take that just about any day, thanks.

Look, if Billingsley’s only an effective pitcher for 5 innings, that’s a problem going forth in his career. But for this season? With the Dodgers bullpen as effective as it is, that’s just fine for the playoffs. Let others cling to some antiquated notion that a starter must be some sort of horse who collects 26 of his 27 outs by himself; if Billingsley starts a Game 3 or 4 and leaves after 5 or 6 effective innings to turn the game over to the likes of Hong-Chih Kuo, Ronald Belisario, Ramon Troncoso, George Sherrill, and Jonathan Broxton, I am more than okay with that.

It’s unfortunate that Billingsley is probably going to look back on this night and think of the homer (to Ryan Zimmerman, of all people – that’s hardly something to be ashamed of, as it was his 31st of the year) but with how badly he’s struggled, this is definitely something to build on.

ERA can be as stupid as wins sometimes!

One earned run here or there doesn’t usually make for a big deal, but when you’re George Sherrill and you enter the game with a 0.40 ERA, it sure does. Sherrill’s ERA nearly doubled to 0.77 because of some awful Dodger defense – none of which went down as errors, so the run was earned.

With the scored tied in the 8th, Sherrill entered and gave up one hit, one easy flyout to left-center that Matt Kemp and Manny Ramirez let drop in between them, and then, with one out, a perfect double play ball up the middle… that Orlando Hudson threw wide of first, allowing the run to score.

In the books, that’s one run on two hits and a fielder’s choice. Funny how that doesn’t reflect two lousy defensive plays that victimized Sherrill.

When will Orlando Hudson get his wrist replaced with adamantium?

I watched this game in a bar in New York City’s Sullivan Square (yeah, you can imagine their reaction when I asked for the Dodgers/Nationals game), and when I saw Hudson crumple to the ground grabbing his twice-injured wrist, I couldn’t believe it. “Three years in a row!!”, I yelled incredulously. While the replay didn’t look that bad – by which I mean, in my completely non-medical opinion, I couldn’t see an obvious break or injury – the fact is, the man’s wrist is made of paper mache. We’ll have to wait to see how bad it is, but good lord. Speaking of which… 

Hey, anyone still think Ronnie Belliard’s hurting the team?

Two more hits and a walk? Check.

Much more neccessary now that Hudson may miss some time? Check.

Go ahead, FanGraphs. Bash him now.

Ever Think a September Game Against a 99-Loss Team Would Be This Important?

September 23, 2009 at 1:35 pm | In Chad Billingsley | 3 Comments

With less than two weeks left in the season, the Dodgers have exactly forty more wins than the woeful Nationals do. Think about that – the Nationals are 51-99. By comparison, the Dodgers got win #51 by beating San Diego on July 3, the day Manny returned from his suspension. As I pointed out yesterday, beating up on this particular Nationals club is less an achievement and more of a joke. Nationals Fever! Catch it! Like swine flu!

So one would think, that with a playoff berth all but assured (they can clinch today with a win and losses by the Braves & Giants) and a Nats team that has their fanbase tracking things like “will Christian Guzman have the fewest walks among MLBers qualified for the batting title” and “how high will the 2009 Nats rate on the list of ‘teams with the most pitchers who have ERA’s above 9.50′”, tonight’s game would only be of interest to the mothers of Jason Repko, Blake DeWitt, and A.J. Ellis.

billingsleyvsmets.jpgAfter all, 2009 All-Star Chad Billingsley is on the mound, and he’s 3-0 with a 2.61 ERA in 3 career appearances against Washington. Tonight’s game is a breeze! A cakewalk! Or whatever else old people describe things that are easy as! Not even worth watching.

Except… oh yes. The darkness. Unless you’ve somehow been living in a cave on Mars for the last month, with your eyes closed, and your fingers in your ears, you’ve probably noticed that Genuine Ace Chad Billingsley, well, sucks. Or is “teh suck,” as the kids say. On June 3, Billingsley threw 6 shutout innings to beat Arizona and move to 7-3, with a 2.59 ERA. Since then? 8-11 with a 5.18 ERA.

Now, it’s not exactly as bad as that. Since completely imploding in July (7.52 ERA, .802 OPS against in 5 starts) Billingsley rebounded in August (3.21 ERA, .688 OPS), before getting completely hammered this month – his September line is a brutal .347/.386/.573 (.959 OPS), which led to his briefly being removed from the rotation, only to allow 4 hits and 2 runs in 1.2 innings against the Giants on Friday.

Look, there’s a variety of theories out there as for what’s happened to him, ranging from fatigue (though he’s still at about 25 innings fewer than last year, including playoffs), injury (coming off a broken leg, and has strained both hamstrings lately) or emotional (he keeps saying “it’s all in my head”), and the simple truth is: it doesn’t matter what it is right now, because if he can’t handle a putrid Washington team, he’s sure as hell not going to get a chance against the Phillies in the playoffs.

Randy Wolf & Clayton Kershaw locked up their spots long ago (assuming Kershaw’s health, which he appeared to prove in last night’s game) and Hiroki Kuroda has to be #3 given his fantastic work since his return from that liner off the head (2.16 ERA and a 21/5 K/BB ratio in 4 starts), but spot #4 is up for grabs. I think we’d all like to think that Billingsley takes that job – but I’ll admit that’s partially selfish, just because I don’t want to look like an asshole for being so strongly against the Jon Garland move.

The point is, there’s actually a lot riding on this game tonight. And for once, it’s not just to see how the Nationals will lose 100!
 

This Isn’t Even Fair

September 22, 2009 at 6:05 pm | In Livian Hernandez, Ronnie Belliard | 4 Comments

Hey, don’t get me wrong – I’m enjoying watching the Dodgers beat up on the hapless Nats right now as much as the next guy. As I write this, the Dodgers have just put up a seven-spot in the third to take a 8-2 lead against Livan “Cheeseburger Cheeseburger” Hernandez. With the struggles we’ve seen from the offense lately, it’s a fantastic sign going into the final stretch of the season and October.

livansucks.jpgThe thing is… look, I’m not trying to be a downer here. But it’s Livan Hernandez. This is a guy who was outright cut by the Mets last month, and considering the Mets’ rotation right now consists, I believe, of Mike Pelfrey, Nelson Figueroa, Sid Fernandez, Omar Minaya’s nephew, and one of the Olsen twins, it’s saying a lot to think they told him, “thanks… but no thanks.”

Seriously, look at the recent track record of this guy – a 5.47 ERA for the Mets this year. 8.03 in 8 games for Colorado last year, and 5.48 in 23 games for the Twins to start 2008. He hasn’t even been a league-average pitcher since scraping by with a 3.98 ERA for these same Nationals in 2005, yet somehow he keeps getting work. And he’s not even a lefty! Even just take his history against the Dodger lineup – a .311/.357/.432 career line against, and since it’s over 466 plate appearances, that’s no small sample size. (Though somehow Juan Pierre still checks in with just .629 OPS and a 9/3 K/BB ratio).

Or look at his pitch stats for tonight’s game, because all he was throwing was 86-87 MPH fastballs. Because somehow that’s going to be good enough to get by. And surprise, surprise, the overweight guy who got cut by the Mets, and who’s listed at 34 but is probably much older, and who hasn’t been effective in years got crushed against a team he’s had no success against. Shocking!

So yeah, it’s an enjoyable night. Let’s just keep in mind who it came against. And good lord, look at his gut in that picture above.

***
Oh no, Ronnie Belliard started at second base again tonight and is 2-3 with a walk and an RBI! Sure is making the team worse, isn’t he?

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