Well, Now That I’ve Regained Conciousness…
September 1, 2009 at 7:35 am | Posted in Jim Thome, Jon Garland, Tony Abreu | 13 CommentsI write a weekly Dodgers fantasy recap for Heater Magazine, and last night before I went to bed I wrote a short piece about how Ronnie Belliard was the big late-August trade acquisition. Hey, he even hit a homer in his first at-bat last night! Well, talk about having that shoved aside, because I nearly had a heart attack when I woke up to read the headlines and saw that the Dodgers had picked up both Jim Thome and Jon Garland. Say what you will about these deals – and we will – but no one can ever say that Ned Colletti’s not working his ass off to get things done, ever again.
Big splashes aside, these trades come with two completely different reactions. Remember, every trade now has to be judged not only on the talent given up but how much money was or was not taken on, in addition to how much it helps the club . So let’s start with Thome.
Did we need him? Hah. You think? Thome may not be the player he once was, but save for an injury-shortened 2005, he hasn’t hit less than 20 homers since 1993, when he got into just 47 games as a 22-year-old Indian. His OPS+ hasn’t been less than 120 since 1992, again excepting 2005. So yeah, the man can hit. Even at 38 years old this year, he’s got 23 homers and an .864 OPS. As the 12th-leading homer hitter of all time who’s almost completely avoided the taint of the steroid era, he’s a no-doubt Hall of Famer.
It’s true that he’s been almost exclusively a DH in recent years, so unfortunately he won’t be taking his 130+ OPS point advantage to replace the disappointing James Loney. Though Ned Colletti says that he won’t be a first baseman, it wouldn’t surprise me to see him get at least a few innings throughout September just to see if he’s passable, with Loney in reserve for defense. Whether or not he can play there in October is TBD (probably not), but either way the bench just got a huge boost. And if you don’t think a power pinch-hitter is worthwhile, just ask Jonathan Broxton how he felt about Matt Stairs last October. Besides, if the Dodgers do make it to the World Series, we just replaced Juan Pierre at DH with Jim Thome. How’s that for improvement?
But the money… Thome’s only got about $2.4m left on his deal before he’s a free agent this winter, and the Chicago Tribune reports that the White Sox are picking up at least part of it. So the financial obligation shouldn’t be a huge issue here.
So the talent going back… I use the word “talent” loosely here, because no offense to Justin Fuller, but guys who are 26 and hitting .254 as a backup in A-ball aren’t exactly top prospects. I can honestly say I’d never heard of him before today, and now that I’ve researched him I don’t even feel a twinge of loss. It’s basically a free pickup.
Survey says… Giving up zero talent and (presumably) paying less than $2m for a massive improvement to your bench headed into the playoffs? Oh, you better believe that’s a win.
Moving on to Garland…
Did we need him? Well, last winter this would have been a “yes”, when we all saw inning-eating issues in the future and I advocated signing him for just that reason. So, yeah, we needed him in January. We needed him in April. We probably needed him in July. But now, when it’s already September? What’s he going to have, 5 starts? Maybe? That’s nice and all, but with the division lead back up to 5.5 games and Colorado imploding, the playoffs seem safe. Vicente Padilla and Charlie Haeger aren’t All-Stars, but they’re serviceable to get through the month, and Hiroki Kuroda might return as soon as this weekend.
It’s not like Garland’s starting in the playoffs; Wolf, Billingsley, and Kershaw are your obvious top three, and if Kuroda’s as healthy as he seems to be you can’t see Garland getting the call over him for a Game 4. So this is just “September depth”.
Jon Garland’s not a guy who makes a difference in the short term. He’s a guy who can reliably take the ball every 5th day and provide average or slightly above performance over the long haul. I’m not saying there’s not value in that – there definitely is – but he’s also not someone you should be targeting in the late part of the season. But, okay, he’s not terrible, so let’s see what was given up to get him…
But the money… Well, the Diamondbacks are picking up every last penny. Hooray! A free pitcher! Wait a second. Aren’t the DBacks cash-strapped? And isn’t this how the Indians ended up with Carlos Santana for Casey Blake – because the Dodgers didn’t want to pick up any salary, so they give up a better prospect than they had to? Uh oh…
So the talent going back… It’s officially still “a player to be named later”, though Steve Gilbert of MLB.com is reporting that Dodger players believe it’s Tony Abreu. That’s hardly a confirmation, so I’ll withhold judgement until we hear that it’s actually the case. However, it would make sense; if it’s a PTBNL, it’s likely because the player would have to clear waivers first, and with the Dodgers needing to make the deal before the deadline to have Garland playoff-eligible, they made the deal this way until the player clears (or until after the season, if he does not.)
Look, if it’s Abreu, I’m going to be really unhappy. He’s a 24-year-old with a .991 OPS in AAA this year, and looks to finally have put his career back on track after two years of injuries. With Orlando Hudson headed back into free agency this offseason, I was strongly in favor of letting him walk and giving Abreu a crack at the second base job. Now – again, if it’s him – the Dodgers have just handed a division rival an excellent prospect for 5 mediocre starts of Jon Garland?
Survey says… We’ll of course have more to say on this once we know who the player is going back to Arizona. Right now, the feeling is more “worried” with a good chance of “horrified“.
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The bottom line here is that Colletti is going all in. Nobody fears Juan’s bat off the bench, but Thome? Are you kidding me? Huge upgrade there.
The Garland acquisition is all about getting more playoff experience in the rotation. It also means Kershaw may be able to miss a start or two in September — so he’ll be well rested for the postseason — something that’s been called for around here. Last night, Torre hinted at going with a six-man rotation for the final month of the season. Extra rest is going to be a benefit for the young guns, there’s no question about it.
Even if we lose Abreu, it’s worth it if we win the whole g-ddamn thing. Now is not the time to think long-term. The “window” is open right now and I’m more confident than ever we’ve got the firepower and the talent to make the most of it.
Comment by Vegas Blue— September 1, 2009 #
I agree with the “now’s the time to go for it” idea, I do. I just don’t think that a 4th or 5th starter like Garland is really going to help accomplish that all that much, and certainly isn’t worth a young player like Abreu going to a division rival – ESPECIALLY when we’re going to have a hole at 2B this offseason.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— September 1, 2009 #
Love the Thome deal so much. He’s a favorite of mine and I hate the White Sox, so I kept hoping he’d end up moving to a team that’s more “mild dislike” than “virulent irrational loathing.” The Dodgers? So much better than I could have hoped.
I really hope they don’t put him at first base. He has a bad back and a bad heel. The fewer chances he gets to hurt himself, the better. Of course, they’ll probably throw him out there anyway. Greaaaat.
And I’m with you on Garland. “Not terrible” is damning with faint praise, eh? Studly 1.431 WHIP you got there, Jonny. And the fact that the best this deal could be is “ehh” based on the PTBNL kind of makes me queasy.
Maybe Ned just thinks things like the Garland trade are what’s expected of him, like we’d all be suspicious if he’d pulled off the Thome deal and stopped there. There’s a comforting thought for ya.
Comment by Amanda— September 1, 2009 #
I don’t completely hate the Garland move. I see it as an insurance policy in case Kuroda can’t make it back this year, plus it helps save Kershaw’s arm for October. I think Kershaw has the best chance of our starters to have a magical postseason run, and I’d feel much better about that happening if he didn’t have 180-plus innings on that arm going into it. With a 6-man rotation for September, that extra rest might be the juice Kershaw needs to get the job done. Plus, you give extra rest to Billingsley, which might help him return to his dominant ways.
Abreu is a steep price tag for a one-month insurance policy, but you have to expect that when you’re dealing with a division rival. Actually, I’m hoping it’s Abreu, and not someone like Lindblom or Withrow or Elbert. That’s worst-case scenario for me. Abreu had completely fallen off the radar the last two years with his injury issues. I still like Dewitt more than him because of that. I know at the moment Abreu’s stock is higher than Dewitt’s, but in April, it was the exact opposite. You never know what will happen with these prospects.
Comment by Hamlet— September 1, 2009 #
Got to agree with Hamlet.
Abreu for Garland is probably too much, but I feel Abreu is replaceable.
We have several options at 2nd next year. Resigning Hudson would be a good one, but if not, Ivan DeJesus Jr. is a possibility, as well as Blake DeWitt. And dare I say Chin-lung Hu, who has recently started hitting again.
Plus, shortstop and 3rd base are all but blocked for the next couple years. 2nd is the only possibly hole and I have some confidence that even with Abreu gone, one of our other guys can step up and fill a void if necessary.
Comment by J— September 1, 2009 #
Dodger Thoughts reporting Jamie Hoffman has been DFA. I hope he stays with the organization.
Comment by Table— September 1, 2009 #
Abreu is a bum, just another middle infielder (Delwyn Young, anyone?) with no position and no power. If they dont resign Husdon, Dewitt or Gordon can be given a chance to win the job. And one thing to remember about Garland is that 2010 option, which would turn him from a 5 game starter to a 30+ game starter.
Comment by Royer the Doyer— September 1, 2009 #
Abreu is a bum, just another middle infielder (Delwyn Young, anyone?) with no position and no power. If they dont resign Husdon, Dewitt or Gordon can be given a chance to win the job. And one thing to remember about Garland is that 2010 option, which would turn him from a 5 game starter to a 30+ game starter.
Comment by Royer the Doyer— September 1, 2009 #
Abreu is a bum, just another middle infielder (Delwyn Young, anyone?) with no position and no power. If they dont resign Husdon, Dewitt or Gordon can be given a chance to win the job. And one thing to remember about Garland is that 2010 option, which would turn him from a 5 game starter to a 30+ game starter.
Comment by Royer the Doyer— September 1, 2009 #
In the short term, getting Garland for Abreu doesn’t look good, but Garland’s price tag is relatively cheap, considering that Wolf will want a multi-year deal at $8 or $9 million per. Maybe Ned is thinking beyond the end of his nose for a change?
I am not a huge fan of Abreu. He is fragile and while he is a good offensive second baseman, you hold your breath anytime he takes a cut or dives. Besides that, there are decent second sackers who will be available if Ned needs more creamy veteran goodness around the clubhouse. Polanco, DeRosa or even Felipe Lopez could be had. And there is O-Dog. Maybe his range has slipped, but he carried the team for a good long time and he is still not as slow or ancient as Raffy.
Comment by grabarkewitz— September 1, 2009 #
Royer the Doyer- WOW!!! you can’t sound sillier than that. First off Abreu is not a bum, he hits for average and above average power for a second baseman. He also has good speed and is much more capable of playing second than say Delwyn Young. You mentioned Young negatively, but he is a perfect example of why trading Abreu is a bad idea. Young has been raking for the Pirates, and Abreu could do the same thing, except for the division rival Dbacks.
PS, Gordon will not be Major league ready next year, so Dewitt, Dejesus, and possibly Hu are our internal 2nd base options next year if Abreu is indeed traded.
Comment by Table— September 1, 2009 #
Have you seen Gordon play defense? Raw barely describes him. Moving him to second would only slow his development. Leave him at short and hope he is ready to make the show in ’11.
Young a bum? Are you serious? The guy can rake and he is no worse than a goodly portion of the second sackers in the league with the glove. I may not like Abreu, but he is no bum.
Comment by grabarkewitz— September 1, 2009 #
Put me down as Horrified. Abreu’s biggest and only problem i ever recognized was being bad rapped by the ever diplomatic Jeff Kent and misdiagnosed by Conte (not exactly a first timer there). Theres a rather huge diffference between a pulled muscle and sports hernia surjury. in trying to decipher just how good or bad Belliard is in field, it looked, well, not so good. hmmm, anybody with more info? Thome good as a PH, Garland the innngs eater in Sept? i guess for Colletti one out of three isn’t bad..
train
Comment by bluetrain— September 2, 2009 #