Monthly Archives: September 2009

First Impressions Are Far Too Important

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I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: the baseball season is too long to look at season stats. Streaks happen, injuries happen, and just because a guy was good 6 months or 6 years ago doesn’t neccessarily mean he’s any good right now. Think about this – Chad Billingsley has a 4.05 ERA in 184.1 IP this season, and Cole Hamels has a 4.07 ERA in 177 IP. Identical, right? Well, who would you rather have out on the mound right now? 

hudsonruns.jpgIt’s with this in mind that we take a look at the suddenly simmering second base “controversy” between Ronnie Belliard and Orlando Hudson. Belliard’s been hot and has started in each of the last two games over Hudson, leading some to wonder who would be the starter when the playoffs start.

For his part, Hudson has been nothing but professional about the situation, and it’s worth pointing out:

After Sunday’s game, Hudson said he felt fine physically but conceded “I haven’t been doing the job.”

“My man Belliard came in, they made a great trade to get him in here and he’s doing a great job at second base,” Hudson said. “All I can do is cheer for him.”

Almost weird to see that, isn’t it? Guys whine all the time, but here we have Hudson taking responsibility for his own performance, or lack thereof. It’s great. Take a hint, 90% of professional athletes!

Anyway, there’s no question that Belliard’s been far outplaying Hudson lately. In addition to being absolutely on fire over the last week (2 homers and a 1.500 OPS), Belliard’s done nothing but hit since joining LA (.304/.339/.589 in 18 games) and had actually started hitting weeks before the trade – as I said at the time:

To be fair, since his OPS cratered at .459 (!!) on July 1, Belliard’s hit a nice .323/.380/.475 in 35 games (20 starts).

Meanwhile, Hudson’s been lousy, as even he’d admit. He has just one hit in the last week, and over the last month his line is an underwhelming .266/.329/.359. If he keeps this up, it will be his second month of 2009 with an OPS in the .600s (awful) and fourth with an OPS under .800 (mediocre for a middle infielder, unacceptable anywhere else). In fact, I was worried about him as far back as our midseason review series: 

So why just the B grade? Because while Hudson may have made an enormous first impression (come on, a cycle in your first home game for your new team? Who does that?) I think it may have obscured just how horrible he’s been over the second half of the first half. (Shut up, that’s a thing.)

Apr. 6 – May 13: 35 games, .348/.429/.539
May 14 – Jul. 10: 49 games, .237/.300/.320

For some reason baseball-reference hasn’t updated to include yesterday’s games yet, so I am missing his 2-homer outburst in that latter section, but still: the difference is glaring. You’d like to think that was the start of something, because at some point he’s going to need to turn this around, or all of the good feelings of April are going to dissipate.

And while his July and August weren’t as horrible as his June, nor were they all that great. This gets us back to my point; the perception of Hudson as a great player is largely due to his outstanding Dodger debut; his play over the last four months just hasn’t backed that up. (This is exactly the same phenomenon that we saw when Juan Pierre filled in for Manny during 99′s suspension – he was great for the first two weeks, horrible for the last three, yet far too many people recapped the entire stretch as great. What if he’d been horrible for the first three? He likely doesn’t get a chance to be horrible for two more.)

Now, this story has been picked up by FanGraphs, a site I greatly respect and link to often. This isn’t going to be Plaschke-esque, but let’s just say, I don’t agree.

If you haven’t been following the Dodgers of late, there’s an interesting development down in LA – Joe Torre has decided to give a significant chunk of the playing time at second base to Ronnie Belliard, sending Orlando Hudson to the bench in the process.

With most personnel decisions in baseball, there’s a gray area where a legitimate point could be argued for either side. This is not one of those scenarios. Belliard is half the player Hudson is, at best, and if Torre is actually contemplating swapping the two out as his team heads into the postseason, then the man should have his sanity questioned.

I don’t really expect a lot of people to jump on the “Belliard over Hudson” train – and to be fair, I’m not even saying it’s a must-do, because we’ll see if Belliard can keep up his streak until October – but just judging by their second-half OPS lines (.882 for Belliard, .758 for Hudson), it’s a little harsh to say there’s not even an argument for the guy who’s winning OPS by nearly 130 points.

Hudson is a known quantity, and a productive one at that. His .342 wOBA so far this season is basically a dead even match for his .339 career mark. He’s a good contact hitter with some gap power and draws a fair share of walks, making him an above average hitter overall. UZR thinks his defense has been in decline, but still thinks he’s around average with the glove.

The total package makes Hudson a slightly better than average player – he’s been worth +2.2 and +3.3 wins in each of the last five years. He’s consistently a quality asset, and certainly the kind of guy you can win a world title with as your second baseman.

belliardhits.jpgSee, this is what I mean about relying too heavily on seasonal stats. A .342 wOBA is all well and good, and if Hudson had put up that line consistently all year and was still that player now, then great! This isn’t even a question. But you can’t just put that stat out there and pretend that the guy who’s putting up a .643 OPS in September is the same guy who put up a .941 OPS in April. Sure, it all counts towards the season total, but what happened in April isn’t going to get us base hits now. If it did, then Chad Billingsley would still be an ace instead of a disaster.

Besides, Belliard’s career wOBA – from FanGraphs‘ own site – is .330. Not as good as Hudson… but not all that far off, either.

Oh, and this fun stat line based on that last statement:

World Series won by teams with Orlando Hudson playing 2B: 0
World Series won by teams with Ronnie Belliard playing 2B: 1 (2006 Cardinals)

It’s really neither here nor there – Albert Pujols and Chris Carpenter probably had a little to do with that title – but since they’re making that claim, I couldn’t help but bring it up.

Belliard simply is an inferior player to Hudson. His entire production bump since the trade to LA is a function of a 25% HR/FB rate that has allowed him to slug .589 in 18 games. If you think that’s sustainable, I’ve got a bridge to sell you. Belliard is a swing-at-anything hack without the contact or power to make that kind of approach work. In 204 plate appearances before the Nationals shipped him to LA, he posted a .297 wOBA.

Belliard is an inferior player… except for all of the varied statistics that show that right now, on September 21, 2009, he’s not. Hey, he could go 1 for his next 20 and it wouldn’t completely surprise me – he’s Ronnie Belliard, not Chase Utley – but the fact is, he’s now completing his second solid month of being excellent. Hey, he wouldn’t be the first guy to get the juices flowing after moving from the worst team in baseball to a pennant race, would he?  

He’s not a defensive wizard. He doesn’t run well. He’s not as good of a hitter. The only thing Belliard can outdo Hudson in would be some kind of eating competition.

There’s no question that Belliard’s not as good of a defender, and I wouldn’t dream of making that comparison. Let’s not overrate Hudson too far, though. As the article even states, UZR has Hudson as average at best, and considering that we spent four years watching Jeff Kent, that is like moving up from Keith Partridge to Audrina Patridge, but it’s still just average. It’s nice, but it’s not vintage-era Hudson.

When October rolls around, Torre better have Hudson installed back at second base and Belliard on the bench where he belongs. Any other alignment will be a blow to the Dodgers chance of winning a World Series.

And if Hudson finally remembers how to hit and Belliard’s streak ends, then I’m all for it. Until then? Look, I haven’t forgotten my own lesson – first impressions get far too much credibility, and we’re watching Ronnie Belliard make a fantastic first impression. I’m well aware that it can fall apart at any second. The point is, Hudson’s been struggling for some time and Belliard’s been killing the ball. Why not ride the hot hand, and if this extends into the playoffs, so be it. At the very least, it’s hard to kill Joe Torre for somehow making his team worse by starting who is – at the moment – the better player.

Quite Possibly the Best Bullpen in Baseball History

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As we’ve mentioned several times, the Dodger bullpen has the best ERA in baseball, with a hefty lead (3.13 to 3.54) over second-place San Francisco. Jonathan Broxton is by one measure the second most valuable reliever in baseball (and 1st in the NL), ranking behind only Jonathan Papelbon in WXRL (reliever’s expected wins added) with 5.392. George Sherrill has been nearly unhittable, allowing just one run in 21.1 innings since coming to LA – and allowing that one run on a homer to ultra-talented Justin Upton, who’s got a .927 OPS at age 21, is hardly an embarrassment.

sherrilldodgers.jpgBut the talent hardly stops at those two; granted, ERA isn’t a perfect metric of pitching performance, but it’s worth noting that the Dodgers have six other relievers besides Broxton and Sherrill with ERA+ scores over 100 (meaning, better than league-average): Ramon Troncoso, Ronald Belisario, Guillermo Mota, Hong-Chih Kuo, James McDonald, and Jeff Weaver. (Sherrill’s 0.42 ERA, by the way, gives him a completely ludicrious ERA+ of 988).

Pick a stat, any stat: the Dodger bullpen is #1 in batting average against. #1 in on-base percentage against. #1 in slugging percentage against, which of course leads to a very healthy 22 point lead in OPS against. They’re #1 in WHIP, and top 10 in both K/BB rate and K/9.

The point is, this bullpen OWNS and they don’t need the slightest bit of help. Hell, you’ve got Korean import Hyang-Nam Choi putting up video game numbers in Albuquerque and even he can’t get a sniff (seriously, though: 9-2, 2.34 ERA, 77 K in 57 IP – what more does this guy need to do?) What could you possibly add to a bullpen like that?

Oh, I don’t know. How about the guys who were your top two starters entering the year – one an All-Star and both two of the top young pitchers in the game? Chad Billingsley was added to the bullpen this weekend before his upcoming start against the Nationals, and now we’ve got Clayton Kershaw as well:

Clayton Kershaw is scheduled to take a detour to the bullpen before returning to his starting role again.

The left-hander, who separated his right shoulder in a collision with the outfield wall during batting practice Sept. 6, threw a simulated game Friday and reported no issues.

If he feels fine today, he would be on track to pitch in a big-league game next week during the Tuesday-Thursday series at Washington. But he would come out of the bullpen.

Manager Joe Torre said Kershaw would get only an inning out of the bullpen to get his feet wet. The logical next step would be for Kershaw to start a game in the four-game series Sept. 25-28 at Pittsburgh, but Torre didn’t want to get ahead of himself.

Granted, there are extenuating circumstances here. Billingsley’s in the bullpen because he sucks (and didn’t do himself any favors in allowing 2 runs in 1.2 innings last night), and Kershaw’s there because he got hurt. So I get it; you might not see Billingsley out of the pen again, and you might only get Kershaw for an inning or two.

Still, just think about being Joe Torre looking into his bullpen and seeing Billingsley and Kershaw sitting next to Broxton, Sherrill, Kuo, Troncoso, Belisario and the rest. Remember, the bullpen is the best in baseball on its own, and now you’ve added a guy in Kershaw who I called “the best pitcher in baseball over the last two months” earlier this season, and another in Billingsley who - and yes, he’s sucked lately, I know – was at one point 9-3 with a 3.10 ERA.

Best bullpen in baseball history, if only for the next two days? Best bullpen in baseball history. 

Steve Perry’s Opinion Is Not to Be Respected

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steveperry.jpgThat’s right, Steve Perry, former lead singer of Journey, has something important to share with all Dodger fans:

Steve Perry, the former lead singer for Journey, will be at Dodger Stadium wearing his Giants cap as usual when the team plays there this weekend and he will leave before the eighth inning, as usual, but not to beat the traffic.

Late last season, the Dodgers started playing Journey’s “Don’t Stop Believin’ ” before the bottom of the eighth inning every night as a rally song, and Perry leaves before they do.

“I have to,” he said. “I don’t want to hear it.”

This isn’t the part that bothers me; “not wanting to listen to Journey songs” hardly puts Perry in the minority.

Why? Because Perry is a diehard Giants fan who cannot stand the fact that the Dodgers “hijacked it first” and use it to win games.

So that’s how the Dodgers have been winning games! It’s their choice of song, not the best pitching staff in baseball or a productive offense. If only other teams had been wise enough not to go with Loverboy’s “Working for the Weekend” or Winger’s “Seventeen”!

Pay attention to the “Perry is a diehard Giants fan” part, though – that’s what is about to be fun.

Perry has friends on the Dodgers. He admitted it was “amazing” the first time he heard the entire stadium singing along with his voice and finds it appropriate the song is used by sports teams. Still, he said, “It tweaks me to know they’re using the song as a rally song. I really wish we’d have hijacked it first. I think the song is about hope and power, and it’s working for them, damn it.”

I would love to know who on the Dodgers is friends with Steve Perry. Can you really see Matt Kemp or Clayton Kershaw or Guillermo Mota being down with the Journey? Let’s see… grew up in the late 70s/early 80s… most likely white… Brad Ausmus. Absolutely has to be, with a 10% chance of “Casey Blake”.

Perry became a Giants fan in 2002 and became friends with many Chicago White Sox players, including Aaron Rowand, when they played “Don’t Stop Believin’ ” in their clubhouse every night on the way to winning a World Series.

And there it is. Nice to see that a “diehard fan” didn’t actually start being a fan until he was 53 and the team was in the World Series. Front runner!

Besides, everyone knows that the best Journey-related sports song was “Any Way You Want It” in Caddyshack:

Or the Braves, Whatever

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lowebraves.jpgSo, in my last post when I was all “ooh, go Marlins, whooo!”? Yeah. Forget that, because they’re no longer target #1. Florida’s loss to the Reds combined with the Braves finishing off a sweep of the Mets puts Atlanta just a game behind the Giants and 4.5 behind the Rockies for the wild card.

4.5 games to make up with two weeks left in the season is a tall and unlikely order, to be sure. But the Braves are red-hot – their 7 game winning streak includes sweeps of the Mets and Cardinals – and still have 6 more games against the Mets and Nationals. Besides, the Rockies end the season playing the Dodgers. We figured those games would be meaningless for LA, but if the Wild Card isn’t settled yet… there might just be something to play for.

A man can dream, right? Go Braves.  

It’s Not Too Late to Start Cheering on the Marlins

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It’s hard to argue that the wild card has been a massive success sine being introduced in 1996, concerns about “tradition” aside. But the one place where it’s a huge failure? The rule that states that two division rivals cannot play each other in the first round, AKA, “Since the Red Sox and Yankees take the AL East and Wild Card every year, we want to make sure we can push that matchup to the ALCS for epic money-making opportunities.” Lousy as that may be, MLB’s not necessarily wrong to do so, because don’t let anyone fool you – this is a business above all else.

So with the Dodgers sweep of the Pirates in combination with the slide of the Rockies (currently on a four-game losing streak) having all but wrapped up the division – as though it was ever really in question – it’s not an unfair question to look ahead at NLDS playoff opponents. If the season ended today, the Dodgers would have the best record in the NL, as they’re currently 3 games up on St. Louis and 5.5 on Philadelphia.

As the team with the best record in the league, the Dodgers should be entitled to leave the dangerous Cardinals and Phillies to beat up on one another and face the lesser wild card in the first round, right? After all, who would you rather face in October? Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, Chris Carpenter, and Adam Wainwright? Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels? Or a team who’s best hitter is 35-year-old Todd Helton and, with Aaron Cook out for the year, has a rotation fronted by the always overrated Jason Marquis? That’s not to say that the Rockies are a crappy team – especially not with the crazy run they’ve been on since Jim Tracy took over – but the simple fact is that they’re certainly not the Phillies or Cardinals, and the Dodgers have owned them in 2009, having taken 12 of 15.

Indeed, if the Cardinals take the best record in the NL, they get to face Colorado while the Dodgers and Phillies rematch last year’s NLCS. If the Phillies do, they get the Rockies while Bill Plaschke orgasms over how St. Louis has Carpenter and Wainright, and we don’t. But if the Dodgers get the best record? As things currently stand, they would get the Phillies (the division winner with the worst record) while St. Louis gets Colorado, simply because the Dodgers and Rockies are in the same division. Because that’s fair. Really does anyone give a crap that the Dodgers and Rockies are division rivals?

codyross.jpgFear not, friends, because there is a solution in hand, and that’s to cheer on our fine fish friends from Florida. Best known to Dodger fans this year for scheduling 6pm starts during national blackout windows to accomodate washed-up 80s pop stars (thus depriving LA fans of televised Dodger baseball), the Marlins currently sit 3rd in the Wild Card standings, 4 games behind the Rockies and 1.5 behind the Giants (who, of course, also wouldn’t help the Dodgers by winning). If the Marlins can sneak into the wild card, they’ll end up in Dodger Stadium while the Cards and Phils fight it out. Which matchup would you prefer?

So keep an eye on the Fish over the next two weeks, because the schedule is squarely in their favor. After 4 in Cincinnati against the woeful Reds, they have 3 at home against the Phillies (who have very little to play for) and then 3 against the Mets, whom they swept earlier this month, before ending with 3 in Atlanta, who will also have nothing to play for.

The Marlins wouldn’t be a pushover – Josh Johnson is a beast and Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla are two grade-A bats – but other than Johnson, their pitching is pretty brutal. No other starter has an ERA under 4.60 and their supposed closer, Matt Lindstrom, has a 5.83 ERA when he’s managed to stay off the DL. The point is, yes, you do want to see them rather than St. Louis or Philly.

This isn’t about sneakily avoiding a better team; it’s about being rewarded for having the best record in the league, regardless of division, and part of that reward is supposed to be an easier opponent in the first round.

Go fish!