MSTI’s 2009 in Review: Catcher
October 26, 2009 at 6:48 am | Posted in 2009 in review, A.J. Ellis, Brad Ausmus, Russell Martin | 27 CommentsWell, it’s that time of the year again. Just like 2008 and 2007 (holy crap, have we really been around that long??) it’s our yearly review series. As always, we’ll touch on every single player, and as always, I’ll regret that decision right around the time I have to come up with something to say about A.J. Ellis.
The letter grades are mostly arbitrary, but keep in mind that they’re based on what you could have reasonably expected from the player before the year started, not as a comparison to any other player. Less than 10 IP or 100 at-bats gets you an “incomplete”.
I had so much fun with the 1987 Topps last year that I tried to go with 1989 Topps this year, to make it a 20-year tribute thing and because I loved that design. However, the curvy name proved so frustrating to do, that I said screw it, and went with the ugly 1985 Topps out of spite. Spite for myself, I guess.
Let’s start off with catcher…
Russell (F.) Martin
(.250/.352/.329 7hr 53rbi)
Woof. Hell of a trend we’re on here, aren’t we, Russell? His MSTI grades have gone from “AmotherfuckingPLUS” (2007) to C- (2008) to this year’s F.
Even that glaring F doesn’t really state the case strongly enough, because it’s one thing to no longer be in the conversation with guys like Joe Mauer and Brian McCann about who’s the best young catcher in baseball, but it’s quite another to be in a discussion about whether you still deserve a starting gig. And it’s true, if only because I cannot state this point strongly enough: Russell Martin was outslugged by David Eckstein, .334 to .329. Eckstein is a magical pixie who’s pretty much the standard-bearer for “barely a major leaguer,” and yet even he had more pop than our supposed All-Star catcher.
It gets even worse when you compare him to other MLB catchers. You can’t use VORP, as it’s a counting stat and Martin had the 3rd-most PA of any catcher, so let’s use MLVr, which is a rate stat that roughly describes how many runs per game a player will contribute in a lineup of otherwise league-average performers.
The league average is 0.000, and the best catcher – ubergod Mauer – came in at .490, nearly half a run per game. 10 other catchers ranked above .100 (min 100 PA), and 20 catchers had positive scores. Martin? All the way down at 32nd, costing the Dodgers -.061 runs/game. That’s 32nd in a sport with 30 teams, don’t forget.
Plus, it’s not like I have to dig deep into the stats to show that he was hardly distinguishing himself as a backstop, either. Just in case I do, Phillies blog Crashburn Alley summed up some Baseball Prospectus research nicely in their NLCS preview:
Perhaps more importantly, however, Ruiz is the best among all qualified catchers in the Majors at blocking balls in the dirt, averaging about one passed ball or wild pitch every five games; Martin averages one PB or WP every two games and was the worst among qualified catchers in this department.
So what’s caused all of this? Back in June, I wrote a post titled “What Are We Going to Do With Russell Martin?” At the time, I noted that a scout said he thought Martin looked old and slow, and after doing some research I came to this conclusion:
Focus on the part about his bat slowing down, and you’re on to a big part of the problem… Martin is getting blown away by fastballs.
Over at FanGraphs, they’ve been able to assign a run value to the production on each type of pitch a batter sees, and then converted it to a rate. For example, if you look at Albert Pujols against fastballs, he’s been pretty consistently at 2-4 runs per 100 fastballs above average over his career, though he’s beating even that this year. In 2007, Martin’s first full (and best) season, he produced 1.69 runs above average every 100 fastballs. Last year, in which he was still decent but nowhere near as good as in 2007, that fell to 0.59. This year? Down to just 0.14.
In June, that 0.14 number was at least on the positive side of the ledger. What did he end up with? -0.8. It’s not foolproof, because you’ll see he was getting killed on every type of pitch this year. But when a guy can’t even hit the fastball anymore… when scouts think he looks old… when he’s noticably worse behind the plate… and when we’ve been saying for three years that Grady Little in ’06-’07 and Joe Torre in ’08 (though less so this year) had been playing the poor guy into the ground… well, all signs point to he’s just too beat up to play to his skill level.
Unfortunately, catcher is such a hard position to fill that as bad as Martin’s been, you almost want to give him another crack at it, just to see if a year of less use can help refresh him as he enters his peak age-27 year. I think they will do that, and I probably would too (with a better backup, though, as outlined in our 2010 plan). But if we don’t see a turnaround in 2010, I have no qualms with moving on. Sad to say, as he’s one of my favorites, but it’s been a solid year and a half now that he’s been killing this team.
Hmm, the Dodgers did have the best record in the NL, right? Not sure I like how depressing of a start this got off to.
Brad Ausmus (B+)
(.295/.343/.368 1hr 9rbi)
Well, I guess I have to give Brad some credit here, because I really hated this signing at the time. But when he wasn’t fixing Guillermo Mota or getting love letters written about him by SI.com, he was only slightly below-average at the plate, with an 89 OPS+. That might not sound that great, but it’s also the best he’s managed since 1999.
Plus, though it’s pretty hard to see from Martin’s performance, just about every published report says that Ausmus had a huge impact on helping Martin learn game preparation skills. So all things considered, that’s $1m well spent. Hey, maybe he can replace Rick Honeycutt as pitching coach next year!
A.J. Ellis (inc.)
(.100/.100/.100 0hr 1rbi)
If I copied and pasted last year’s review of Ellis, would anyone even notice the difference?
Ah yes, the fun part of writing about every player. You get to dissect the September expanded roster call-up who got just three at-bats. I think Ellis’ impact on the 2008 Dodgers can be mostly shown by the fact that I couldn’t even find an action picture of him in an LA uniform and had to go with a 2007 spring training shot. I think most of my thoughts regarding Ellis this year revolved around me hoping he’d at least get an at-bat, because after getting called up in September he got into three games without getting a chance at the plate.
Well, other than the fact that he finally got his first big league hit on the last day of the season and thus won’t have to go into the history books as a 0, it’s pretty much the same. As far as his future, well, A.J.’s got problems. His SLG dropped 80 points in AAA, and he’s going to be 29 next April, so time is clearly not on his side. What you’re seeing is basically what you’re going to get – a AAAA-type who’s your 3rd or 4th catching option, and if he’s even still in the Dodger system in 2010 he’s going to be pushed hard for that role by Lucas May.
Next: James Loney! Doug Mientkiewicz! Jim Thome (sort of)! It’s first base!
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Damn, I really miss Carlos Santana. I hope Frank McCourt gets a flesh-eating disease for being the cheap bastid that he is. For the piddling sum of $2 million, we would still have the best catching prospect in the game not named Wieters or Posey. I hope Jaime takes him for every red cent.
Comment by grabarkewitz — October 26, 2009 #
Brutal. We could have had Santana ready to step in at C and then someone like Beltre at 3B.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness — October 26, 2009 #
Yeah, DeWitt was struggling, but we could’ve stuck with him and still had Santana, on the cheap. Dealing Martin would be a foregone conclusion, now.
Comment by grabarkewitz — October 26, 2009 #
Is it just me, or did Old-man Martin perk up a bit at the end of the year with the bat (relatively speaking)? I could be completely wrong as I haven’t looked at the numbers but that was my impression. I thought it was encouraging.
Comment by Stephen — October 26, 2009 #
He hit .239 in August (.624 OPS) and .209 in September (.672 OPS) before going 5-25 in the playoffs. So, not really. He was good in May and July, and horrible every other month.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness — October 26, 2009 #
Got it. Way to go, selective memory.
Comment by Stephen — October 26, 2009 #
Maybe I’m just in a good mood today, but I’d give Martin a D. The real burning issue however, is why he has declined so precipitously and how can he return to form, if ever. Given that we have no other catching options, we’re stuck with Russell.
Comment by Shmolnick — October 26, 2009 #
I feel like in terms of “Martin as opposed to other MLB catchers”, a D is about right. But I was grading in terms of what we expected from him before the year, and that’s a big fat F for me.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness — October 26, 2009 #
I knew Russell had a tough year, but a lower slugging than Hustle McGritty David Eckstein? That hurts.
The whole year I held to the notion that Martin was going to be okay because his OBP was still…respectable. This was based primarily on faith and now that I actually look at the numbers, that ain’t good neither. .352 is pretty lousy by his standards. BABIP is slightly lower than career average at .285 while his LD% has actually ticked up slightly to 20%. But his walks really took a dive this year too, only 69 vs. 90 last year in 50 more PAs.
Damn, Russ. I guess those couple years when he was played every day really did mess him up. I was hoping he could maintain his plate discipline, as a high OBP catcher is still valuable commodity, but I can’t imagine a pitcher is going to be too scared of him at this point to even throw him anything outside the zone.
Comment by gklarsen — October 26, 2009 #
I liked Ausmus, and i wouldn’t mind him back if it wasn’t for the knowledge that they will not start him enough. I think that is Martin’s biggest problem. He seemed to have the talent, and he doesn’t come across as the type of guy that messes around. It seems to me when you have a guy that is still young, has shown mass talent, and starts way too much the problem is he plays way too much. As the article said Martin went from one of the best catchers to one of the worst. I think baring some crazy fluke the reason is he needs more rest. However, we have been saying that since 07. Somebody needs to sit down with Joe and spell it out for him that we want Martin to play less. I think a big part of that is getting a back up that Joe will play.
Comment by Gillbert — October 26, 2009 #
I agree, totally. It’s just that it’s so hard to find a decent starting catcher (hell, look at us) that it’s nearly impossible to find a decent backup catcher too.
I was scanning the free agent list, and let me say, it’s a sorry state of affairs.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness — October 26, 2009 #
What’s up with Lucas May? Is it possible that he might challenge Martin for the job next year? or is he too far away still?
Comment by mk — October 26, 2009 #
May is still a year away from the show. May is worse at blocking balls, calling pitches and pretty much at all aspects of defense than Martin and that is saying something. There is potential, offensively, but May is a feast/famine hitter. I gotta think that the Blue will want to see him get in some AAA at bats before running out in the show.
Comment by grabarkewitz — October 27, 2009 #
The 2007 Spring Training shot of A.J. Ellis is actually a picture of Mitch Jones. The card maker made a mistake.
Comment by Brian — October 26, 2009 #
I hope that was sarcasm about replacing honeycutt. We all better hope honeycutt isnt going anywhere anytime soon.
Comment by Matt — October 26, 2009 #
More like maybe mattingly can replace torre now so we can rest our catcher, settle on a lineup, trust our pitchers, pull them when they cant throw strikes, stop ruining pitchers with too many innings over short periods and stop playing mark lorretta. I feel better now…
Comment by Matt — October 26, 2009 #
I meant trust young talent
Comment by Matt — October 26, 2009 #
Ok, I’m gonna say it: Russell Martin bears all the signs of a guy who’s off the juice. He established a level of production and stamina (or recuperation) that could not be maintained. I have no proof except that his production drop off brings to mind a few other players for whom I’ve suspected the same.
Comment by Doug — October 27, 2009 #
The thought had crossed my mind, but I have absolutely nothing to back that with so I couldn’t bring the accusation.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness — October 27, 2009 #
Juice-related or no, his first three seasons are relatively similar to Paul LoDuca’s. I sure hope he bounces back.
Comment by b.rock — October 27, 2009 #
I thought this as well, but who really knows?
I did think it was odd that Martin felt the need to so publicly discuss his yoga and try to explain why he had lost bulk, he said it was a new diet and that he was leaner and still strong.
Players do different conditioning and off season workouts all the time, but it was a bit strange how much Russ pushed his changes to the media.
He is on a downward spiral, frankly it would be more surprising if he did better next year than this year, the trend is downward and it’s really unfortunate. Unfortunately I think the rest of the league has caught on, that’s why he won’t walk very much next year, he can be as patient as he wants but if the pitcher can throw fastball strikes and get him out, what chance does he have?
Comment by Erich — October 27, 2009 #
Remember, Martin intially made the team out of Spring training a few years ago basically because Gagne pushed for it (being a fellow Cunuck and all). I think the ties to steroids are completly legit.
Comment by Chris — October 27, 2009 #
Wait, that’s not true. Navarro was the guy in 2006, Martin only made it up later because Navarro got hurt.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness — October 27, 2009 #
I think Navarro was suppose to be the guy coming out, got hurt, and Martin made the roster due to Gagne. I remember being talked about a lot on local sports radio because they thought the team should go get a reliable backup.
Comment by Chris — October 28, 2009 #
The worst part of it all is that the horrible trade for Santana brought us Blake, who we now have locked up for a few more seasons. And after watching Blake perform this October its depressing knowing that we are locked into Blake & Martin in the 7 & 8 spot for next few years when we could have Santana and some extra cash to spend elsewhere.
Comment by ritzpolo22 — October 27, 2009 #
I was against the Santana trade as well but let’s wait and see what he does in the big leagues before we get too upset… it’s still a long road ahead for him.
Comment by Erich — October 27, 2009 #
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