MSTI’s 2009 in Review: First Base
October 27, 2009 at 7:13 am | In 2009 in review, Doug Mientkiewicz, James Loney, Jim Thome | 22 Comments
James Loney (C)
(.281/.357/.399 13hr 90rbi)
Check this out. In 2008, Loney had 651 plate appearances. In 2009? 651. In 2008, he had 13 homers, 90 RBI, and 7 steals. In 2009? Exactly the same. Not only did the mainline numbers on the back of his baseball card (you know, if anyone still collected baseball cards) describe what’s becoming an exactly average James Loney season, he ended up with a 100 OPS+, making him a league-average hitter. So what we have here is pretty much exactly what we said about him last year; he’s not been bad (ludicrous home/road splits aside), but nor has he been all that spectacular. He’s been average, hence the average grade.
Of course, having a first baseman who hits for a 100 OPS+ isn’t exactly a good thing, because first basemen are expected to provide big offense. In a league with mashers like Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, Adrian Gonzalez, Todd Helton, etc., being “average” for the league actually means you’re one of the lesser lights at that position. The numbers bear that out; his .756 OPS was 13th of 14 qualified NL 1B, ahead of only Mets injury replacement Daniel Murphy. In VORP, he was the 25th best 1B in all of baseball. Clearly the bar is set pretty high here, but merely being “okay” puts the Dodgers behind the curve at the position as compared to nearly every other team.
So it’s no surprise that his name has come up in possible trade rumors to get more power at first base, occasionally for guys like San Diego’s Gonzalez. Still, there is some reason for optimism here. Starting in mid-August (possibly after Bob Schaefer made him stop wearing his mouthguard) Loney ended the year on a scorching hot streak, hitting .317/.391/.455 in September before hitting .353 with 2 homers in the NLCS – which, by the way, continues his history of being outstanding in October. In 70 PA across 5 playoff series, his line is .349/.414/.540. That’s performance you can live with.
But it’s more than just his playoff history that gives me hope. When I noted that his stats in 2009 looked almost identical to 2008, I purposely didn’t mention one aspect that changed immensely, and that’s his K/BB ratio. In 2008, he struck out 85 times and drew 45 walks, which in an era where some guys strike out 200+ times is actually pretty good. This year? He actually drew more walks than K’s, 70 to 68. Considering that he’s still just going to be 25 when Opening Day 2010 rolls around, what that says to me is we have a young player who’s still improving his command of the strike zone. I’ll admit that the fact that his SLG dropped 35 points from ‘08 to ‘09 is worrisome, but when you have a guy with his pedigree who’s showing such improvement in pitch recognition – and is still so young – I think he really could be in line for a huge breakout next year, especially with how hot he ended the year.
That’s a great sign, because while I think the Dodgers will poke around to find a power upgrade at 1B, between the tight payroll situation and bigger holes at 2B and the rotation, I don’t really see much of a chance for them to acquire a superstar first baseman. Loney probably gets one more chance to prove that he’s still got more to offer, and the stars are aligned for him to take that step forward.
Doug Mientkiewicz (inc.)
(.333/.400/.389 0hr 3rbi)
Joe Torre favorite and noted Twitter enthusiast ”Eyechart” Mientkiewicz didn’t really get much of a chance to contribute this year, getting just 20 plate appearances before and after missing five months after destroying his shoulder in mid-April. So, that puts him at somewhere around “37th most important Dodger of 2009″.
Which is about right, and that’s fine. Mientkiewicz is a nice player, but just not for this team. As I said when Delwyn Young was traded:
No, the mistake here is in allowing a talented young player to be pushed off the roster for the sake of keeping superfluous older veterans. Do we really think that Juan Castro and Doug Mientkiewicz are going to help this team more than Delwyn Young? And the thing is, I actually like Doug Mientkiewicz, but the fact is that he’s completely unneccessary on this team. It’s not just the two strikeouts in his three hitless at-bats, it’s the fact that he’s a good-fielding first baseman – something this team already has. It’s not even that important to have him around as a backup in case James Loney goes down, because you could simply move Casey Blake across the diamond and install Blake DeWitt at third base.
It’s been six months since I said that, and I basically feel the exact same way right now – except now he’s going to be 36 and coming off a lost year. Since Torre likes him so much it wouldn’t completely surprise me to see him get at least a token invite to spring training, but hopefully not much more.
Jim Thome (inc.)
(.235/.235/.235 0hr 3rbi)
Yeah, I know. Thome didn’t actually play any first base. But I have to stick him somewhere, right? And it’s appropriate that the picture I have of him on the card is “bench”, because that’s exactly where he spent most of his time in Los Angeles. That said, when the Dodgers went out to get Thome, you could probably say that I approved…
Survey says… Giving up zero talent and (presumably) paying less than $2m for a massive improvement to your bench headed into the playoffs? Oh, you better believe that’s a win.
Of course, it didn’t really work out, as Thome – hobbled by a sore foot – managed just 4 singles in 17 regular season pinch-hitting tries, and then just 1-5 in the postseason. But that’s okay. A big situation never really presented itself to him (he’d surely have been the DH if the team had advanced to the World Series), and I give the Dodgers a lot of credit for taking the chance and making the outlay.
As for Thome? Back to the AL next year, no doubt. I guess we won’t be seeing him enter the Hall of Fame with an LA cap, will we?
Next up: Orlando Hudson! Ronnie Belliard! Saying so long to Tony Abreu! It’s second base!
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He may be a sentimental favorite, but it’s one of my favorite things in baseball to see him drive one with long, looping swing. Good to know there’s some reason for hope going forward too with that late season surge.
Comment by gklarsen — October 27, 2009 #
I’m sure this has been asked and answer a million times, but what about moving to 3B? He has the glove, and his stats would be more in line with a 3B, and we could try someone with pop at 1B. If his arm is questionable, maybe (and I know this is radical) move him to 2B? Because at 1B with those numbers, his time is limited. His starting to look like a AAAA future backup instead of the homegrown stud we all prayed for.
-MSL!
Comment by Mike Sharperson Lives! — October 27, 2009 #
You mean Loney? He’s a lefty.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness — October 27, 2009 #
I was wondering if anybody was still kicking around the idea of moving Martin to 3B, myself.
Comment by Stephen — October 27, 2009 #
Nah. If Martin can barely hit enough to be a catcher, he’d be the worst 3B in baseball.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness — October 27, 2009 #
After his rookie season I thought he was going to be Mark Grace plus a few home runs. The next two seasons were regressions though he did come on late as you noted.
Here’s my fear about Loney. I remember when Depo signed Derrick Lowe, a lot of folks gave him the ol’ horse laugh seeing as Lowe had just come of a pretty crappy season. Then Rob Neyer wrote a column stating that Lowe would do great at Dodger Stadium because it’s symmetrical outfield kills doubles and triples. He was right. Loney is a true gap hitter, DS does not have the gaps that other parks do, which leads me to believe that he may never reach his potential as a Dodger. His home/road splits suggest this.
I hope im wrong because he is young, cheap, like-able, and decent with the glove, but we need a left handed impact bat at 1st base, not an average one.
Comment by Lex S. — October 27, 2009 #
I didn’t think about that but its true his road/ home splits are crazy different. Loney is a hard question for me. I remember when he came out. He was so awesome. Since then however he has not been as great. He seems like a nice guy and has a good d. I guess this next year will be make or brake for Loney’s stay on the Dodgers.
Comment by Gillbert — October 27, 2009 #
We are lucky that our best hitter is in CF, in that sense, as long as we have Kemp, Loney being league average at 1B is not hurting the team the way it would if we had a league-average CF.
Comment by Erich — October 27, 2009 #
Loney will figure it out and put it all together. I still think he’s a really good hitter and a guy who drives in runs. Maybe this is just my selective memory working, but I can’t tell you the number of times there’s been a guy on second or third and he slaps a single to left to score the run instead of trying to pull one into an out. Very nice approach from such a young hitter. And like MSTI said, his progression with his knowledge of the strike zone is very encouraging and he looks primed to have a breakout season.
Comment by The Fury — October 27, 2009 #
Ok…
You are all rainbows and promises for Loney, and you throw the book at Martin. (I agree on Loney, by the way.) Your criticism of Russ was valid, but your lack of optimism for a rebound wasn’t, considering previous success. 27 isn’t too old for another all star appearance….
Wouldn’t you rather be wrong on this one?
Comment by dsheridan88 — October 27, 2009 #
Well, sure, I think we’d all love to be incredibly wrong about Martin and see him have a breakout season of 30 HR’s, a .300/.400/500 stat line and play fantastic defense behind the dish, but as MSTI pointed out towards the end of the review about Loney, at least he looked poised for a great season with the way he finished the year and the tangible difference in stats after he stopped wearing his mouthguard, but what has Martin done to inspire any sort of confidence? A three-year downward regression and a .239 BA in August (.624 OPS) and .209 in September (.672 OPS) before going 5-25 in the playoffs doesn’t tell me he’s ready for a breakout any time soon. Sure he was good in 2007, but I think we all believed that was future promises to come instead of the one year he was actually noticed for something other than his defense.
Comment by The Fury — October 27, 2009 #
A couple of things in Martin’s defense:
1. There is certainly less than universal consent on your comments about his defense. From Memories of Kevin Malone:
In previous catcher defense studies that I believe are the best we’re going to see in a while, Martin has proven to be one of the better defenders in the league, and I didn’t see much this year that dissuades me from continuing to go with that evaluation.
2. Setting the bar at 30 hrs is not a realistic standard of an “I-found-it-again” year at the plate. More power, more ability to hit a fastball, yes. But be honest….if he crept up to .275 and had 15 homers, you would probably have to adjust your ridiculously low grade more than you should have to…
3. HE’S DONE IT BEFORE. To me, that makes me more likely to believe he could do it again. Oh yeah, HE IS 27 YEARS OLD!!! I think you are coming down with Plaschke-Billingsley-itis.
Comment by dsheridan88 — October 28, 2009 #
Setting aside the issue of defense (and I think we’re safe doing that when we’re talking about left fielders and 1st basemen), James Loney’s been an offensively subpar 1st baseman for years now. But he’s still got the magic label of “potential” attached to him. Here’s what that means: TRADE HIM NOW!! He might get slightly better but he’s never going to be the masher we’re all craving. My solution…Adam Dunn. The Nats are going nowhere next year and I bet they’d jump at the chance to dump the salary and pick up a “rising star” who’s under control for the next 3 years. Of course this is stupid talk given that McCourt will never spring for the increase in payroll…but I can dream dammit!!
Comment by Doug — October 27, 2009 #
I like the 85 Topps theme, it was my first year collecting baseball cards after all. I wonder if the Gooden RC is worth anything these days?
As for Loney, we’re kinda stuck hoping the mouthguard issue actually meant something, or that Loney finally figures it out next season. He did put up .900 OPS numbers early in his career, was that just luck?
Comment by bayareadfan — October 28, 2009 #
Dear dsheridan88,
First of all, I’d like it if you’d refrain from personally attacking me by saying that “I’m coming down with Plaschke-Billingsley-itis”. I, at no point in our discussion, resorted to name-calling or attacking you personally. Secondly, I didn’t say a thing about Martin’s defense being good or bad. If my only sin was omission, then I’m sorry I didn’t bring that up, I just assumed saying nothing about it meant that I thought his defense was just fine. Also, I was clearly exaggerating when I set that ridiculous line of 30 HR’s, and a .300/.400/.500 stat line, because he’s never once hit over .300, and the closest he’s come to that was in 2007, which is the year that I referenced as being maybe his career year, we don’t know yet. But if he’s never hit 20 HR’s, I don’t expect him to suddenly hit 30. And I never gave him a grade, so I’m not sure what it is that you’re referring to when you say, “if he crept up to .275 and had 15 homers, you would probably have to adjust your ridiculously low grade more than you should have to…” was this directed at myself or MSTI? Lastly, “he’s done it before” is a pretty bad reference for future success. You can say that about a lot of players, especially former All-Stars, but that doesn’t mean they’re going to automatically give you that kind of production ever again. Say what you want about he’s got the tools, but a three year downward trend is very alarming, even if he is a young player.
P.S. What exactly do you mean “he’s done it before”? Done what?
Comment by The Fury — October 28, 2009 #
Wow….
Ok. I truly didn’t think you would take “Plaschke-Billingsley-itis” that hard. Speaks volumes about what we all really think of our lovable Times columnist…
Yeah, I made the mistake of lumping you in with the site. Rookie mistake. You are responding to MSTI, not writing on behalf of it. Ok. I am sorry for that.
So that means I was responding to their grade of F for Martin, which in my mind is more than a bit over reactive.
“He done it before” is a direct reference to being an all-star and a plus bat. The Dodgers aren’t paying him all that much yet, and I believe it way too early to write off a player of his age, demeanor, and connection to the organization. Sure, if some incredible deal presented itself…but when is that going to happen? By giving him an F, MSTI was in effect saying that the catcher position is hurting the team. And even THIS PAST YEAR, I just don’t see it.
All that said, come next year at this time, I would be less ready to jump in on his behalf if there weren’t signs of more. But I’m just not there yet. A little closer than I am with James Loney, but not much.
And for the record: you are the one who said 30 hr…. And I take from your answer that my more modest proposal – 15 HR, back up around .275, more RBI, would do the trick just fine. I feel that is completely possible.
Comment by dsheridan88 — October 29, 2009 #
Im sorry I resent the grade ur giving loney. He led the team in RBIs and he has consistently been an RBI producer again this year. While the long ball is nice its quite overrated esp in a post steroid era (bullshit in itself I know – ya thats right pujols apologists). Dodgers were one of the leaders in run production this year for the most part without a ton of long balls. Loney was a big part of this being probably their third best hitter. Manny being their 5th best hitter behind blake. Sorry people living in 2008. So a C for a teams more consistent hitter that made it to the NLCS the 2 years he was a starter. Now thats almost as self indulgent as the F you gave martin, who still has one of the better eyes and is more patient as a hitter then most of the team. Add to that his above average defense and that he is a CATCHER. Even now a lot of teams in the league would love to have Martin where a coach might not put so much on him. Torre is the problem not Martin.
Comment by Matt — October 29, 2009 #
But the problem is, RBI’s are a completely worthless stat. They have no bearing on how good a player is. None. RBI’s rely on your teammates to be on base in front of you, and the Dodgers had an excellent OBP group this year.
I don’t see the problem with giving Loney a C, for “average”. He had a decent year, but that made him one of the lesser 1B in baseball.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness — October 29, 2009 #
your personal expectations should be thrown out the window when objectively giving a player grades. Not everyone can have a big hitter at 1st just like not everyone can have matt kemp in center. everything is a give and take especially with Jamie Mccourt’s european vacations.
Comment by Matt — October 29, 2009 #
These grades are entirely about my personal expectations. That’s the whole point. And while I agree that not everyone can have a big hitter at first, the fact that we DON’T means that our 1B isn’t as good as everyone else’s. Hence the lesser grade.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness — October 29, 2009 #
RBIs is a worthless stat according to you. With Loney its a product of his ability to hit with runners in scoring position. Last I check this is a team sport. A worthless stat is wins for a pitcher not whether a hitter drives in runs, especially when he doesnt homer much. Totally disagree.
Comment by Matt — October 30, 2009 #
Matt – I doubt you’ll ever see this, but how can you think wins are a worthless stat but RBI’s arent? They’re both contingent on your team setting up a certain situation despite you. You can have a bullpen that blows every single one of a pitcher’s possible wins and you can have guys who always make outs before a certain hitter comes up to the plate, leading to 0 wins and 0 RBI’s, respectively, but that doesn’t speak to the quality of the pitcher or hitter at all. The point is, if you always come to the plate with runners on base and you’re a major league hitter, you’re going to get hits and you’re going to drive in runs. The more opportunities you get, the more chance something will fall for a hit and a run will be scored. So yes, RBI’s are a worthless stat.
Comment by The Fury — November 1, 2009 #