NLCS Game 3: Kuroda > Lee
October 18, 2009 at 10:40 am | Posted in 2009 NLCS vs. Phillies, Cliff Lee, Hiroki Kuroda | 8 CommentsThere’s a lot to be worried about for Hiroki Kuroda today, it seems. There’s the fact that he hasn’t pitched in three weeks and is coming off a neck injury, to be sure, and then there’s the ever-present lazy journalism of trying to drum up stories about last year’s overblown ‘headhunting’ incidents.
But me? I’m nothing but confident. Just look at the facts…
1) Kuroda was excellent after returning from being hit in the head.
His first start back was on September 5, and in five starts he was very effective - a 2.79 ERA in which he allowed opponents to get on base at just a .269 clip. That even includes a lousy outing against Pittsburgh in which he lasted just 4 innings, and even that didn’t push the ERA over 3.
2) Kuroda owns the Phillies.
Hiroki’s got four career starts against Philadelphia:
8/14/08: 7 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 7 K, 0 BB
8/24/08: 6 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 7 K, 2 BB
10/12/08: 6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 3 K, 1 BB
6/6/09: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 5 K, 3 BB
In just two seasons, Kuroda’s built up quite the history of success against the Phillies, plus this won’t even be the first time he’ll face them in October. It’s even more than that though; look at Kuroda against the current members of the Phillies:
.179 OBP! .336 OPS! Just two extra-base hits in 58 plate appearances, and Ryan Howard in particular being completely neutralized. How does that not give you confidence? It’s not just Kuroda, too…
3) Cliff Lee hasn’t had the same level of success against Dodger batters.
While Kuroda’s dominated Philly, here’s Lee against the Dodgers he’ll see tonight:
That’s 5 times he’s seen one of these men take him deep, as compared to 0 times that Kuroda could count, and an OBP against that eclipses Kuroda’s OPS against – with Manny in particular hitting him hard.
This is not, of course, to say that this game is in the bag – clearly, Lee is a great pitcher, and Citizens Bank Park is going to be cold, wet, and unfriendly tonight. Just don’t forget how much the Dodgers do have going for them – especially when they get into the bullpens.
NLCS Game 2: How Quickly Things Change
October 16, 2009 at 3:20 pm | Posted in 2009 NLCS vs. Phillies, Jim Thome, Pedro Martinez, Vicente Padilla | 11 CommentsAnd by “quickly”, I of course mean the 8th inning that took about 6 weeks to play. I could watch that 8th inning over, and over, and over again. Intrigue, strategy, failure and pressure – what more could you want from a playoff game?
After 7.5 innings of a very surprising pitching duel – see below – this game just went off the rails in the bottom of that fateful 8th inning. If you were following the brand new MSTI Twitter feed, you’d have noticed that I said this as Pedro Martinez mowed down Dodger hitters:
The only saving grace for the #Dodgers is that Pedro is 140 years old and the #Phillies crappy bullpen has to step up soon.
That is, of course, exactly what happened. But before we even get into that, let’s award a nice slice of the playoff shares to Phillies manager Charlie Manuel, doing his best to match Joe Torre’s Game 1 mistake, just in the exact opposite way. While we all grilled Torre for leaving in Clayton Kershaw too long when the Dodgers have such a great pen, Manuel went to the other extreme. Regardless of what sort of smoke and mirrors he was using, Pedro was killing the Dodgers and the Phillies bullpen is lousy; why in the hell would you pull him after 7? At least let him start the 8th and see what he can do. Just an unspeakably bad decision, turning the game over to the Philly bullpen.
So in comes Chan Ho Park, sporting a fancy new beard, and after giving up a single to what used to be Casey Blake, the game quickly turned… into an epic bunt-a-thon. First, Ronnie Belliard displays the worst bunting technique I’ve ever seen, before putting one down far too hard… but perfectly placed in between Park and Ryan Howard for a hit. Then, Russell Martin tries the same, except Park can’t get one over – getting a gift strike on what should have been ball four – and Martin finally puts a perfect double play ball to third base… except Chase Utley airmails his second throw to first in two days to allow the tying run to score.
With Martin on first, Scott Eyre enters to allow pinch-hitter to Jim Thome finally become an actual Dodger, and not just “theoretical big bat off the bench,” with a single to right field, moving Martin to third. After Ryan Madson walks Rafael Furcal and a strikes out Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier comes up against Scott Eyre J.A. Happ – the 4th Phillies pitcher of the inning.
Now, we all know Ethier’s penchant for coming through in the clutch… and a walk isn’t quite “a walkoff dinger”, but as it gives the Dodgers the lead, we’ll happily take it. In comes J.A. Happ Chad Durbin – that’s right, the FIFTH pitcher of the inning, who quickly retires Manny on a pop to third.
Jonathan Broxton comes in to save the 9th, and just like that, a series – and a season – that was all but over is tied, headed back to Philadelphia.
*****
Wow. Just wow. Manuel’s going to get a lot of heat, as he should. And the various members of the Phillies bullpen who didn’t get the job done are going to hear it, as they should. But there’s no bigger goat in this game than Chase Utley. If he turns that double play, that inning plays out entirely differently. Worse, that’s the second one he botched in two days! If I’m a Phillies fan, I’m wondering just what in the hell is going on with him right now – and I’m worried. Very, very, worried.
*****
How bad was that 8th inning for the Phillies? Just look at the FanGraphs win chart:
*****
As for the 7.5 innings that preceded that…
Pedro Martinez is 48 years old! His fastball tops out at 89 MPH! His bones might literally be made of dust! Didn’t he kill a midget? He hadn’t pitched in three weeks!
Was there ever any doubt?
It’s exactly when there’s every reason that something shouldn’t work that it does work, and so it was that the old man made the team he’s been torturing for 15 years look foolish, allowing just two hits over seven innings.
I don’t take anything away from Pedro here (what’s the over/under on articles tomorrow that call him “gutsy” or “wily”? 50? 100?), because he’s one of the best ever and he was clearly outstanding. But come on, guys. 2 hits, and neither hit all that hard? (One was a bloop to center by Russell Martin, one was an infield single that Matt Kemp beat out.) From what was supposed to be one of the most dangerous lineups in the league, that’s just embarrassing. If you can’t make solid contact on Corpsey McPedro, then what the hell is going to happen against Cliff Lee on Sunday?
On the other side, let’s not gloss over what Vicente Padilla did through 7.1 IP, matching Pedro save for one pitch that Ryan Howard deposited into the left-field stands. As he’s pitching for a contract this offseason, you could almost hear the “ka-ching! ka-ching!” sound effects each time he got an out, couldn’t you? With how horrified everyone – yes, us too – was about the fact that he was starting Game 2, he was fantastic, again. It’s almost as though he’s figured out that if you just tone down the whole “being a giant dick” thing slightly, your fantastic stuff can really help you succeed.
*****
Hey, between Pedro and Chan Ho Park, how about seeing (nearly) 8 innings of two elderly former Dodgers? Couldn’t they have brought back Rudy Seanez to finish it off? Or Kevin Gross? Where was Roger McDowell?
What Could These Two Possibly Be Discussing?
October 16, 2009 at 3:18 pm | Posted in 2009 NLCS vs. Phillies, Tommy Lasorda | 3 Comments
Kobe Bryant looks absolutely thrilled to be listening to whatever Tommy Lasorda’s blathering on about, doesn’t he?
“The Season Depends on Vicente Padilla Beating Pedro Martinez”
October 16, 2009 at 10:01 am | Posted in Pedro Martinez, Vicente Padilla | 1 CommentSay that phrase to yourself. Roll it around your mouth, let it dangle on the tip of your tongue. The season depends on Vicente Padilla beating Pedro Martinez. It’s so absurd that it doesn’t even seem to make sense, at first. What would that have meant to you three months ago?
“Uh, the Rangers are playing San Pedro de Macoris?”
“Dear god, the Dodgers really did sign Pedro?! And… we’re playing Texas in the World Series?!”
“What season is that? Is there some sort of off-season shuffleboard tournament?”
In an October filled with top-line aces (Cliff Lee, C.C. Sabathia) and a multitude of incredibly talented starters both young and old (Clayton Kershaw, Cole Hamels, John Lackey, A.J. Burnett, etc.) the Dodger season hinges on… Vicente Padilla vs. Pedro Martinez. A Pedro Martinez who hasn’t even pitched since in over two weeks, since Sept. 30.
No, losing today and being down 2-0 isn’t completely insurmountable, but I don’t think I really need to go look up the history to tell you that teams which drop the first 2 games (at home!) don’t have a great legacy of coming back to win. So, yes, the season does depend on today’s game.
I think the real question is, is it sadder that our Game 2 starter is Vicente Padilla… or that the best the Phillies can come up with is Pedro Martinez?
Battle of the Titans, indeed.
This Was a Team Effort
October 16, 2009 at 8:11 am | Posted in 2009 NLCS vs. Phillies, Clayton Kershaw, George Sherrill | 11 CommentsI’m sure the stories today will read, “Clayton Kershaw implodes”. Which he did. Unfortunately, there was plenty of blame to go around for the depressing end to what was really an excellent game.
Kershaw. After sailing through the first four innings allowing just two baserunners, the wheels came off in the 5th. And by “wheels came off,” I clearly mean “the goddamn plane crashed into the mountain!” (Man, only took two paragraphs back at the old home to break out Lebowski jokes again! It’s good to be back.)
We’re not talking about a “bad inning”. We’re talking about a completely epic meltdown. It’s one thing to give up three hits, because at least two of the trio of Raul Ibanez, Carlos Ruiz, and Ryan Howard are excellent hitters. But three walks – including one to the pitcher – and three wild pitches, which might have been four if not for Russell Martin? That is a disaster, the likes of which we haven’t seen in the playoffs perhaps ever.
The upside here is that, at least outwardly, Kershaw’s not letting this breakdown affect him.
Randy Marsh. I realize how homer-iffic this is going to sound, but his strike zone was an embarrassment. It’s hard enough to get three strikes on major league hitters, but four? Sometimes, five? An absolute joke, and while the Dodgers did enough other things wrong that you can’t pin this loss on him, he sure didn’t help.
Joe Torre. If it’s May, you let the kid work through control issues. If it’s August, you let the kid work through control issues. In Game 1 of the NLCS, when your 21-year-old has just walked the pitcher and is throwing wild pitches with frightening consistency? And when you’ve got the best bullpen in the game? You have to pull him.
I didn’t even mind that Kershaw stayed in after the Ruiz homer. With the pitcher up, that’s the perfect time to get things back on the rails. But when you walk the opposing pitcher on four pitches, that’s a pretty good sign that you’re rattled. Then when, the next three batters, you throw two wild pitches and walk another guy, that’s a pretty definite sign that it’s time to take him out.
But no, Kershaw stays in to face Ryan Howard. And I know I’ve been saying constantly that Howard can’t hit lefties, and that’s all well and good, but now that Scott Elbert’s replaced Jeff Weaver, you’re carrying three lefties in the pen. You don’t have to keep in an obviously-shaken Kershaw just because he’s a lefty; you can afford to bring in Elbert for just this opportunity. Isn’t that the entire reason he’s on this roster?
(Yes, I know Plaschke said the same thing. Yes, I hate myself for agreeing.)
George Sherrill. I had to step away from the television for about five minutes to go unlock the door for the ladyfriend. I came back to three IM’s and two texts, and I knew nothing good had happened. And so it was, unstoppable relief machine George Sherrill melted down even worse than Kershaw had by turning a 5-4 nailbiter into an 8-4 laugher on two walks and a homer to Ibanez.
Casey Blake. The Bearded One might fly under the radar a bit because of everything else that happened, but the Dodgers had some great opportunities to get back into this game, and the Most Interesting Man in the World came up with an 0-5 debacle, including stranding Andre Ethier at 2nd in the 7th and hitting into a double play in the 9th. Just brutal.
I don’t want to pretend that this was all bad, all the time – as I said, this was a fantastically interesting game, which included plenty of Dodger highlights, none bigger to me than the offensive exploits of James Loney & Manny Ramirez.
It’s just that, this was one of those games where you can’t point the finger at any one player. This was a team loss, and the Dodgers had more than enough opportunities to capitalize.
One good thing about baseball, though – no time to dwell on this. Game 2 starts in just 5 hours.
I Think We’re Back
October 16, 2009 at 5:40 am | Posted in Uncategorized | 2 Comments…I think. Massive apologies for the huge site issues over the last day or so, including unintended RSS and ad issues. Couldn’t have come at a better time, right? Something like this will never happen again – promise.
I’m not entirely sure if anyone can even see this yet, but we’ll get back to Dodger baseball today.
Frank And Jamie Headed For Divorce McCourt?
October 15, 2009 at 3:00 am | Posted in 2010 sucks so far, Frank McCourt, Jamie McCourt | 1 CommentO.K., that is now our lamest title for an article, ever. I know, I know…
So, as I’m sure most of you have heard, according to the L.A. Times, the big story is that Frank and Jamie McCourt have now called it quits and have decided to separate. While it’s generally sad to see any marriage end, for obvious reasons, that’s not really the concern here. Rather, what’s the effects that this can have on the team? Can the team survive this successfully or are we going to see another San Diego situation, where their owner, who alsoheaded for a divorce, pretty much slashed payroll and eventually traded the likes of Jake Peavy?
Right now, it’s hard to say, and there’s certainly a variety of factors that play into it, which we just don’t know. Though if they do indeed divorce, there’s definitely a chance that they would have to sell. It’s certainly a situation that deserves to be closely monitored, as this situation can either (and hopefully) turn out well for the team or it could end up bad. Very bad.
On the other hand, we’re Dodgers fans, so what’s new? Even during good years, there’s usually always that shot in the nuts (or as I call it: a “Holliday”) that has to happen. But there’s still baseball to be played, and meaningful baseball at that, so let’s get it going, already!
Wait, What?!
October 14, 2009 at 3:25 pm | Posted in 2009 NLCS vs. Phillies, Randy Wolf, Vicente Padilla | 10 CommentsAn update to “Kershaw starts Game 1” from earlier, also from the official blog: (actually, it was from the official Facebook page – hey, MSTI has a Facebook page, hint hint)
UPDATE:
Rotation will be Kershaw, Padilla, Kuroda, Wolf
Wow. It doesn’t surprise me in the least that Hiroki Kuroda takes Chad Billingsley’s spot, and that’s an argument for another day. But Vicente Padilla in Game 2? Randy Wolf bumped all the way down to Game 4?! What is that about?
I’m sure there’s a perfectly good reason for that; I just can’t think of what it might be. With all of the issues the Phillies have against left-handed starters, why wouldn’t you want to use Kershaw and Wolf in Games 1, 2, 5, and 6?
Plus, I get how good Padilla’s been as a Dodger. I do, and I have no problem with him getting a start. But is he really our second best pitcher? I can’t wait to see what Torre’s reasons are behind this.
Hey, No Pressure, Kid
October 14, 2009 at 2:27 pm | Posted in 2009 NLCS vs. Phillies, Clayton Kershaw, Randy Wolf | 1 Comment
From the official blog:Kershaw to start Game 1
He’ll take the mound tomorrow to open up. Game 2 starter still TBA.
Well, then. I guess there’s no more screwing around about who our “ace” is, eh? Very interesting decision, though. Not only does it put a ton of pressure on Kershaw – which honestly, doesn’t bother me all that much – but it does set him up to pitch Game 5 in Philadelphia, rather than Game 6 in Los Angeles. Kershaw’s been more effective at keeping runs off the board at home this year (1.83 ERA vs 3.81 ERA), though I suppose the underlying thought is that you don’t want to chance losing a series without having your best pitcher throw twice. The home/road split isn’t really as bad as it looks, either – his WHIP, K/9, and BB/9 rates are almost identical.
I think the real question, though, is the “Game 2 starter still TBA” line. How could that possibly not be Randy Wolf? Are you really going to go with Vicente Padilla or Hiroki Kuroda? No chance.
Democracy Just Doesn’t Work, People
October 13, 2009 at 7:25 am | Posted in 2009 NLCS vs. Phillies | 12 CommentsOver at ESPN’s SportsNation, they’re letting people vote on what they think the World Series matchup will be, and it’s overwhelmingly in favor of Yankees/Dodgers – no surprise there.
But there’s more to see than just that…
1) What the hell is going on in North Dakota? Lots of Angel fans up there? Particular ire for the Yankees?
2) Down in the bottom right, you can see that Yankees/Dodgers (symbolized in green, of course, because of the massive amounts of cash this series would make MLB and their TV networks) is also winning in the international poll… which, judging by that map, was taken 
with whales, sharks, and the other denizens of the world’s oceans.
3) At right, it’s good to see the hometown fans are showing faith in the Angels. Hey, Anaheimers (-ites?): you’ve been outdone by North Dakota. It’s not often I say this, but I am absolutely pulling for the Yankees to win the ALCS. Screw the Angels.
How Many McCourt Sins?
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