2009 November « Mike Scioscia's tragic illness

My, How Times Have Changed

November 30, 2009 at 2:24 pm | Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

While we wait to see which Dodgers will get offered arbitration and which free agents other teams will sign, I thought it’d be interesting to take a quick step back and see what we were discussing one year ago at this time. Believe it or not, it wasn’t entirely “all Manny, all the time”. So what was the topic du jour on November 30, 2008?

For all the talk flying around about CC Sabathia, Manny Ramirez, and whether we should prefer a winning baseball team or helping children, it’s really looking more and more likely that shortstop is going to be the most important decision the Dodgers have to make this offseason. With Rafael Furcal sounding like he’s all but a memory (likely to the A’s or Giants), Chin-Lung Hu hardly impressive in 2008, and Ivan DeJesus, Jr. not ready to be handed the Opening Day gig, the Dodgers are going to have to find a shortstop somewhere.

Which then led to a discussion of the merits, or lack thereof, of Jack Wilson, Edgar Renteria, Orlando Cabrera, and *shudders as cold hand of death traces down my spine* Angel Berroa. Of course, Furcal came back, and the crisis was averted, though he of course was thoroughly mediocre.

How about in 2007? On December 2 of that year, we were drowing in ridiculous trade rumors:

For all of the rumors the Dodgers have been involved in over the last 3 weeks or so, they’ve all been pretty much the same.

- Dodgers to trade Kemp, Kershaw, Loney, Koufax, Hershiser to Marlins for Cabrera!
- Dodgers to trade LaRoche, Martin, Hu, Lasorda, Hodges to Twins for Santana!
- Dodgers to sign Aaron Rowand to a 7 year, $187 million deal!

And so forth. But tomorrow, friends, expect the rumor mill to really heat up. For all of our baseball heroes – you know, management – descend on the Opryland Hotel in Nashville, TN. Or as Buster Olney describes it, “a terrible work environment, a terrible place to get things done.”

After so much excitement the last two years, this year seems to be a long slog towards not trading for an “ace” and seeing what bottom of the barrel guys are still left out there in February, along with praying that some of the young talent (i.e., MATT KEMP) gets signed to long-term deals.

Then again, I guess not everything has changed, because what were we talking about on November 26, 2008? That’s right; how much we despise the McCourts:

I know Jamie McCourt is a smart woman with her fancy degrees and all, but I am actually getting offended with how stupid she thinks baseball fans are. Are you really, truly, honestly suggesting that if contracts weren’t guaranteed, then underperforming players would be cut loose and their salary given to the community? Would you really be giving the $18 million or so due Andruw Jones to needy families? Or are you saying that you can’t afford to give more to charity because your cash is all tied up in expensive players? We’ve said pretty much everything bad you can say about Juan Pierre around here, but “takes food out of the mouths of orphans” isn’t exactly a level we’ve made it to yet.

Hmm. I suppose the more things change, they more they do stay the same.

Happy 82nd Birthday, Vin!

November 29, 2009 at 6:24 pm | Posted in Vin Scully | 4 Comments

Happy Birthday to the best.

Given the date, and with the lack of news, for the most part, what are some of your favorite Vin moments/stories that stand out?

- Vin

Sunday: A Day for Rumors and Self-Promotion

November 29, 2009 at 10:37 am | Posted in Juan Pierre sucks, Orlando Hudson | 3 Comments

Last day of a holiday weekend at the slowest time of the year? Oh, you better believe it’s time for a round-up.

Monday is arbitration day, and the Dodgers better not screw it up. We’ve been saying this for months, but there is absolutely no reason to not offer arbitration to both Randy Wolf and Orlando Hudson. True Blue LA outlines why offering Hudson arbitration is an absolute must (which I of course agree with), but also mentions why it’s a really bad sign if the Dodgers don’t:

If the Dodgers are so risk averse as to try to avoid the infinitesimal chance the Hudson would cost them another $8 million or so, that’s a bad sign. Only good things can happen by offering Hudson arbitration:

Hudson declines arbitration, signs elsewhere, and the Dodgers get two draft picks in 2010

Hudson accepts arbitration, Dodgers get a 2.5 to 3-win player for a one-year deal

If the Dodgers don’t offer arbitration, it will be for monetary reasons only. Saving money in the short-term on things they should be spending money on will only hurt the team in the long run.

Prediction: I hope I’m wrong, but the Dodgers won’t offer Hudson arbitration.

If they don’t, then things truly are worse than we’d thought.

**********

I’ve given up hoping for a Juan Pierre trade, because it will inevitably only lead to sadness. The LA Times with a quick note about the possibility of our favorite backup outfielder leaving town:

The Dodgers are expected to explore the possibility of dealing fourth outfielder Juan Pierre for an overpaid back-of-the-rotation pitcher in a trade that would essentially amount to a swap of bad contracts. Pierre is owed $18.5 million over the next two seasons.

This is basically the idea I was running with when I said that Pierre should be traded for Mets 2B Luis Castillo in the 2010 plan. So who would that player be? Every time this comes up, I keep hearing about trading Pierre to the Reds for either Aaron Harang ($12.5m in 2010, $2.5m buyout of $12.5m in 2011) or Bronson Arroyo ($11m in 2010, $2m buyout of $11m in 2011).

But I just don’t see that happening. The Reds don’t need Pierre; they already have Willy Taveras, who’s about as mediocre as Pierre, and have Jay Bruce and Drew Stubbs in the outfield as well. In addition, Harang and Arroyo are both more valuable to the Reds than Pierre would be (each had positive ERA+ scores last year in a small ballpark) and each is owed less money than Pierre is in a time where the Reds are trying to cut cash. So that’s not a fit.

There’s really not a great fit out there, unfortunately. Most teams won’t add a salary like Pierre’s for the small return he’d give them. Among the ones that might, they don’t all need an outfielder, and among those, not all have an overpriced pitcher they’re willing to move. I really think he’s stuck here for another season.

**********

Good news coming from the minors, finally. Much has been made about how the top of the Dodger system has been relatively barren recently, since all of those prospects have since graduated to the big club. That’s still true, but there’s a good amount of guys quickly moving up from the lower levels, and Jim Callis of Baseball America mentioned a few of them in his ESPN chat a few days ago:

rayg (burlington, NJ):

Jim-thanks for the chat. Dee Gordon-will he be able to hit enough to make it to LA in the next 2-3 years? Do you see him moving up to Inland Empire or Chattanooga in 2010?

Jim Callis:

I do think he’ll hit enough. He has hit .331 and .301 in two pro seasons despite his inexperience, and his speed should keep him out of slumps. I think he’ll continue the more he plays. The plan is for him to start 2010 in high Class A, but I could see him in Double-A by the end of the year.

brian (Pasadena):

Hey Jim,Is Allan Webster anything for Dodger fans to get excited about?

Jim Callis:

Yes, yes he is. Unknown when the Dodgers took him in the 18th round of the 2008 draft out of a North Carolina HS, he has an effortless 94-mph fastball and promising secondary pitches.

Jose (Long Beach, CA):

How is the dodger farm system right now. It seems that its young but they have solid players in Withrow, Martin, Miller, Gordon and Webster. When will McCheap start looking at international players since the dodgers where the pioneers

Jim Callis:

The Dodgers have graduated a lot of talent to the majors this decade, and they’re currently replenishing the system. It’s stronger at the lower levels than the upper levels, but those guys you mentioned and some others are promising. LA thinks the international market is less efficient than the draft, and it has focused on the draft rather than big-money foreign signings. They generally don’t go over slot and get good bang for their buck, but it’s also a disadvantage when most teams are outspending you on the draft and internationally.

I’d never really heard of Allan Webster before, but he’s someone I’ll keep an eye on now.

**********

Have any baseball fans who need a gift with the holiday shopping season coming up? Time for a little self-promotion. Just like I did last year, I’ve contributed Dodger analysis for the Graphical Player 2010, which is a fantastic resource for baseball fans and especially fantasy players. I remember one of the first things that really got me into baseball was recieving Bill James’ baseball annual for Christmas in 1987 or so at about six years old, and spending weeks reading through the hundreds of pages of analysis. (sidenote: dammit! I wish I’d been inspired to start a blog at that point. I could have been king of the world by now). You could be starting someone off on their own path of baseball fandom, or you could just slide into the position of “favored relative” by giving a fan this amongst their other gifts of sweaters, socks, and unwanted DVDs.

Anyway, a lot of very smart people put a lot of hard work into this book, and if you’re a baseball fan or have any gifts to buy for people who are, you could do a lot worse than spending twenty bucks on stats, commentary, and predictions on over 1,000 ballplayers. Here’s a quick description of what you’ll find:

Graphical Player includes dashboards for over 1,000 ballplayers from both the majors and the minors, chosen expressly for their interest to fantasy leaguers. Graphical Player is now bigger and better than ever. Key features include:

Projected and historical dollar values for single and mixed Roto leagues, as well as tallies for points leagues

Four years of career stats, including splits for RH/LH and 1st-half/2nd-half

Support for a variety of fantasy categories, including Caught Stealing, Complete Games, Blow Saves, Holds, Quality Starts, and more

Minor-league stats down to Single-A for 2009 for every player

A unique “mini-browser” showing five players with similar projections at the same positions

Profiles of more than 100 prospects, with independent rankings from three experts

Speculative rosters for every MLB team for 2010, 2011, and 2012

Sentiment indicators for “buy-low” and “sell-high” candidates

Full player stats by team for 2009

Groundbreaking metrics like xFIP, wOBA, and Wins Above Replacement

Great, right? Here’s the link to order, and it’ll be out next week.

Just Go to Boston Already, Marco

November 28, 2009 at 12:10 pm | Posted in Marco Scutaro | 6 Comments

So here’s a name we haven’t discussed around here before, and with good reason: Marco Scutaro. Scutaro’s spent the last six years in Oakland and Toronto as a somewhat-useful infield supersub before being given the Blue Jay shortstop gig full time last year, coming through with a surprisingly nice .282/.379/.404 line for a 111 OPS+.

That makes him the top shortstop in a lousy free-agent market, and with Toronto recently signing Boston’s Alex Gonzalez, all indications are that Scutaro shouldn’t be hesistating in putting down a payment on homes in Boston. MLBtraderumors even went so far as to say he’s “destined to end up” there.

So what does this have to do with the Dodgers? Well, for some reason they don’t appear to be letting him go to Boston without a fight (also via MLBTR):

Free agent Marco Scutaro is said to prefer the Dodgers and Red Sox because they give him the best chance to make the postseason, according to a report by Augusto Cardenas of Diaro Panorama, which was passed along by MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian. Geoff Baker of The Seattle Times has a quote from Scutaro on the situation:

“Boston is interested, like the Dodgers, Seattle and Texas,” Scutaro said. “They have just called to say they have interest, but they haven’t made an offer yet.

“The Dodgers want me to play second base, shortstop in Boston, and there are other teams who have called to play third. Although not close the doors, I would rather be between short and second.”

I still think he’s going to end up in Boston regardless, but let’s at least take this opportunity to point out how much “no!” there is in this rumor. I won’t deny that Scutaro had a very good season in 2009, but he’s the classic example of a guy that some team is going to overpay and regret it – and you don’t want to be that team.

Let’s count the reasons why…

1) 2009 looks a lot like a fluke season. Scutaro was a negative value (based on wRAA, Weighted Runs Above Average) for every single season of his career before breaking out with a huge 14.3 mark in 2009. It was also the first time in his entire career he’d managed to walk more than strike out, and his BABIP increased by .015 over 2008. He’s already turned 34, and it’s incredibly rare that a player who was mediocre his entire life can keep up a sustained turnaround at that age.

2) He’s only an average fielder. Scutaro spent most of his time in 2009 at shortstop, where he was just barely above average (1.0 in UZR/150). For his career, he’s -2.9 at SS, fueled by some brutal years in Oakland (really, -28.1 in 2006? How did he get 61 starts? Yikes.)

Of course, he’d be a second baseman in LA, and he played just four innings there in 2009. For his career, he’s 0.1 in UZR/150 at the keystone, so almost exactly average. If you can hit, there’s some value in being an average defender – Adam Dunn would probably be a first-ballot Hall of Famer if he wasn’t such a trainwreck with the glove – but Scutaro’s unlikely to keep up that production at the plate.

3) He’s a type A free agent. That, of course, means you have to give up your first-round pick to sign him. How is it a good idea to give that up two years in a row for the same position? Are we really thinking of giving up a first-rounder for a mediocre 34-year-old middle infielder coming off a career year? I sure hope not.

4) You’d have to outbid Boston. This is actually a good thing, because it’s probably why Scutaro won’t be coming to LA. Still, some are saying that he might be in line for a three-year deal, which sounds like a completely horrendous idea. If he gets that, good for him. Just don’t let it be the Dodgers who hands it to him.

5) Because people smarter than I are saying almost the exact same things. Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus, hit me:

Marco Scutaro: One of the biggest mistakes in free agency is deciding that a player’s career season at an advanced age heralds some change in his level of performance, and paying him as such. Scutaro is a good utility infielder and a marginal starter who had the best year of his life at 33 on the basis of some walks, power, and defense. It wasn’t a one-category thing; he played better than he ever had before. But we have a hundred years of information that tells us that utility infielders don’t become starting shortstops at 33 on one side, and Marco Scutaro on the other. He absolutely can help a good team, but if you sign him and pay him money that indicates you think that he’s going to have 2009 three more times, you’re making a big mistake. One big year at 33 doesn’t change what a player is. Scutaro is something of a competence test for front offices this offseason, and likely to be perceived as a disappointment come next summer.

Exactly. Sure, I’d love the guy to come and be a super-utility man. But to give up a first-round draft pick and a three-year deal? Absolutely not. I don’t really see him coming, so the rumor doesn’t bother me. What does bother me is the idea that the front office is sniffing around him as though it’s a good idea.

We now return you to your regularly scheduled post-Thanksgiving gluttony.

Wait, There’s Competition For Juan Castro?

November 24, 2009 at 1:19 pm | Posted in Juan Castro | 6 Comments

I sure wish I could use HTML tags in the headline, because “competition” would have bold, italics, and possibly lightning bolts all around it. Something like this:

Wait, There’s Competition For Juan Castro?

MLBtraderumors passes along this hilarious hot stove tidbit from Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi:

Phils, Dodgers both want Castro — 12:10 p.m.

One month after playing one another in the National League Championship Series, the Phillies and Dodgers are pursuing the same utility player: Juan Castro.

Castro’s agent, Oscar Suarez, told FOXSports.com Tuesday that both teams are interested in the 37-year-old infielder.

Re… really? Teams are tripping over themselves to hire a guy who’ll be 38 next year and has a career OPS of .601? A guy who had an OPS in the second half last year – and this is no typo – of .317? That’s the guy teams are competing for?

“But MSTI,” you say. “Everyone knows he can’t hit. His value is as a slick-fielding defensive backup.” Sure, that might have been true 5 or 10 years ago. How has that glove held up as he’s aged? According to FanGraphs, he hasn’t even been an average fielder since 2006. In 2009 alone in UZR/150, he was actually pretty brutal, though of course in small sample sizes: -24.2 runs at SS and -3.9 at 2B. So this is clearly a guy that should be inspiring a bidding war.

No, it’s facts like that – and by “facts”, I clearly mean “a player who cannot hit or field and is old should not be on a major league roster” that inspired us to point out that Castro should be shown the door in favor of Chin-Lung Hu, a superior fielder who at least has a chance of offensive upside.

I’d launch into a diatribe about how old and busted veterans who offer no value should never ever be at the epicenter of a free agency competition… but wait! There’s hope! Todd Zolecki at MLB.com, hit me!

The Phillies appear to have found their replacement for Eric Bruntlett.

The Phillies are close to a deal with Juan Castro, who hit .277 with one home run and nine RBIs in 112 at-bats last season with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Castro’s agent, Oscar Suarez, said today that “we’re closing in on something.”

It is believed to be a one-year deal.

“Who doesn’t like the Phillies as an organization?” Suarez said. “You want to win. And who doesn’t like Juan Castro? You want to have a superb utility man to back up the guys you have up the middle. We’re trying to put this thing together. I think we’re going to get it done.”

You’re right, Oscar. Who doesn’t like Juan Castro? Well, teams trying to put together winning rosters, of course, but that’s too obvious. At least Castro’s going to the perfect sitution – one in which the starting middle infielders are consistent, durable everyday stars who rarely need a rest.

The Power of Wishful Thinking…

November 23, 2009 at 3:25 pm | Posted in Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp | 5 Comments

Hey, I like Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier just as much as everyone else does…

…but to say they’re “leading candidates for the NL MVP award” goes beyond “looking through Dodger blue glasses”. You’d have to have had Dodger logos surgically implanted into your eyes. Or at least get an “LA” type contact lens, like the ones that make you look like you have cat eyes.

Look, if this isn’t Albert Pujols unanimously, then I give up on humanity. Sure, Kemp & Ethier had great years. But are they getting MVP votes ahead of Pujols, or Chase Utley, or Hanley Ramirez? I… think not.

Speaking of awards that should have been won unanimously, how about a Seattle writer spoiling Joe Mauer’s party by voting for Miguel Cabrera, of all people? Cabrera leads Mauer in exactly one stat, and that’s blood-alcohol level.

At least it wasn’t Derek Jeter, anyway.

Baseball Prospectus, Why Must You Taunt Me?

November 21, 2009 at 5:44 pm | Posted in Carlos Santana, Casey Blake | 20 Comments

Today’s front page article:

We’ve been over the travesty of trading the Indians a better prospect for Casey Blake than they received for C.C. Sabathia a ton of times here, so I won’t bore you with it again. (Once again, this does not mean I hate Casey Blake. It means I hate the trade. I can’t believe people still get that confused.) Still, when you see comments like this about Santana from BP prospect guru Kevin Goldstein…

Year in Review: One of the top catching prospects in the game, Santana only helped his reputation with a monster showing in his first year at the upper levels.
The Good: Santana’s bat is so special that if he was a first-base prospect, he’d still be elite. His approach is big league-ready, as he never swings at a bad pitch. As one scout put it, “When he does finally swing, special things tend to happen.” His power is plus to plus-plus to all fields, and for a player with his strength, he maintains an outstanding contact rate. He’s a solid defender with above-average arm strength.

…it really pours salt on that open wound – especially with Russell Martin’s career in a nosedive.

But hey, at least we can stop blaming Ned Colletti for this and put more blame on the McCourts for putting Colletti in this situation, right? Right?

One Out of Three Ain’t Bad

November 19, 2009 at 10:54 am | Posted in Bud Selig | 8 Comments

Hey, our valiant commissioner Bud Selig is batting .333 this week! That’s All-Star level. Well, “tie in an All-Star game” level. And since he’s completely punchless, I’m sure that his line would somehow come out to .333/.333/.000, which isn’t even possible. But still! .333!

Fail: “Bud Selig still isn’t worried about the Dodgers”

Commissioner Bud Selig said the Dodgers were “in good hands” for now but refused to offer assurances to fans worried that the McCourt divorce saga could compromise the future of the club.

He’s not worried? He sure as hell should be. I know he’s restrained somewhat by what he can say publicly, but still.

But Selig sidestepped the question of what he would say to fans concerned that the Dodgers’ long-term future could echo the San Diego Padres’ recent history — an ownership divorce, followed by a sale, management turnover, payroll cuts and the cost-driven departure of popular players.

“There’s no reason to get into any debate about what’s going to happen,” Selig said. “The Dodgers will be in Los Angeles for as long as we’re alive and for many generations to come.”

If Bud Selig had been commissioner in 1956, I bet he’d have been saying the same thing to Brooklyn fans, wouldn’t he?

Thanks for helping to assuage our fears, Bud.

Fail: “Baseball hits pause on replay”

Baseball general managers meeting here failed to take a vote yesterday on expanding instant replay following a postseason filled with blown calls by umpires.

It doesn’t specifically say it here, but it’s well known that the reason they didn’t even vote is because Selig is opposed to it. What’s Selig got to say about it?

Commissioner Bud Selig opposes widening the use of video review.

“I know there are some who have talked off line about the expansion of instant replay,” Solomon said. “Right now, the commissioner doesn’t see any reason to consider it.”

No reason? No reason? Do I even need to link you to the dozens of stories about the multitude of blown calls this offseason? Say you’re not in favor of it, and that’s one thing. It’s the wrong opinion, but at least it’s an opinion. But to say that you don’t even see a reason to consider it? Pay attention, old man.

Hit… ish: “Selig: Baseball will tighten playoff schedule“

Baseball plans to cut down on off days during the postseason next year.

Commissioner Bud Selig said Wednesday he’s working on tightening up the 2010 playoff schedule so there will be fewer gaps between games.

Los Angeles Angels manager Mike Scioscia criticized the current format after the Yankees and Angels played only eight times in 20 days going into Game 6 of the AL championship series.

“We’re going to change it,” Selig said. “I don’t disagree with Mike Scioscia. I think he was right, so we’re going to try and tighten that up.”

That’s progress, though it’s such an obvious fix it’s hard to give him a whole lot of credit. Besides, as Rob Neyer says, let’s not get too excited just yet…

Well, you can consider me guardedly optimistic. You can’t change anything without commissioner Bud’s enthusiastic approval, so this would seem to be a lovely first step. But I will note for the record that: a) Selig has promised to do things before that didn’t get done; and 2) don’t the TV networks call the shots on this one?

At least one of the current TV contracts runs through 2013. Is Selig saying he’ll change it five years from now, when he’s 80? Or is he saying that he’ll slap Fox and TBS, and they’ll take it and like it? Stay tuned …

Completely accurate on all points. How is it that the sport I love, the team I support, and the major newspaper that covers them all have such out-of-touch people as their leaders and/or public faces?

MSTI’s 2009 in Review: Relievers, Part 3

November 18, 2009 at 7:20 am | Posted in 2009 in review, Brent Leach, Claudio Vargas, Cory Wade, Travis Schlichting, Will Ohman | 6 Comments

Finally! This is the last player review segment of the year, and while I won’t pretend this one is the most interesting grouping of players you’ll read about all year, this whole series served its purpose. It allowed me to get some thoughts down on each player this year, and almost as importantly, helped fill some space between the end of the season and the start of the Hot Stove.

Cory Wade (F)
(2-3, 5.53, 1.373 WHIP)

See Cory Wade in his picture over there? He looks sad. Sure, that’s a picture from 2008 (you can tell because of the 50th anniversary patch on his right arm), but maybe he just looks sad because he knows that his 2009 will in no way reflect his excellent 2008.

Really, Wade’s 2009 stands as glaring proof of two truisms: 1) that except for the best of the best, reliever performances are incredibly volatile year-to-year, and 2) Joe Torre tends to crush his new favorite toy like he’s Lennie in Of Mice and Men.

Thus, Wade’s problems were pretty clear this year. He couldn’t stay healthy (two trips to the DL for a right shoulder that bothered him even in 2008) and he wasn’t very good even when he was available (huge increases in BB/9 and WHIP, huge decrease in K/9). That being the case, part of his problems is that he was never as good as he seemed in 2008 – a .227 BABIP is completely unsustainable and was a large part of why the ERA that looked so good (2.27) was nowhere near what FIP said he should have been (3.78). This year, his luck completely changed, since the huge increase in BABIP to .294 helped turn an already lousy FIP (4.40) into a much worse ERA (5.57).

You have to wonder how much of the blame for his injuries should be heaped on Torre, because we tend to forget how much Wade was worked in 2008. Even in April, Kensai and I were both ringing the bell on this, as I said at the time…

Wade’s pitched in four games this season, and has been great in three of them (three scoreless outings of an inning apiece, allowing two hits) and awful in one (three hits and two runs in 1/3 of an inning). The poor outing was the only one that came on a back-to-back appearance, and since this is apparently the same shoulder issue that bothered him last season and in spring, you have to wonder: should we be treating him as the right-handed Hong-Chih Kuo? I’d rather live with an effective Wade who’s not available as often as everyone else than no Wade at all. Some guys just aren’t built for the constant workload, and you have to wonder if Wade falls under that category.

Wade, of course, never did come close to regaining his form for the rest of the year, and even worse, was horrible in the minors – allowing 17 ER in 22.2 AAA innings. He’ll still just be 26 when Opening Day comes, so his time has hardly passed. But he’ll likely have to prove his health in the minors again before he gets another shot at what looks to be a pretty loaded big league bullpen crew.

Brent Leach (?)
(2-0, 5.75, 1.377)

Brent Leach is a left-handed pitcher who appeared in 38 games for the Los Angeles Dodgers of Major League Baseball.

Okay, I was tempted to just go with the Wikipedia-esque description and leave it at that, because I seriously have no recollection of Brent Leach doing anything meaningful for the Dodgers this year. Did he really get into 38 games? Jesus. My top memory of Leach is mainly the firestorm Kensai unwittingly set off by discussing his wife’s hilarious blog (which I can’t seem to find the link to anymore).

As for his pitching, he got the call from Chattanooga because he was dominating down there (1 ER and 17 K in 13 IP). Before you get too excited about that, remember that this was AA and he turns 27, well, today. (Happy Birthday!) Once he got to the bigs the strikeout rate was nice (8.4/9) but the homer rate much less so (1.3/9) and the walk rate was pretty bad (5.31/9).

Actually, he looks to have had control issues his entire career – only in 2008, as a 25-year-old in High-A ball, has he ever really been able to keep it below a walk every other inning. Still, some lefties are known to develop late, and he appears to have the stuff to miss bats, so if he can ever get a handle on that control, he might actually have a future in a bullpen to be named later.

Will Ohman (F)
(1-0, 5.84, 1.622 WHIP)

Oh, Will Ohman. I had such high hopes for you. I actually had first brought him up way back in October 2008, before any rumors had attached him to the Dodgers, in my 2009 plan:

Ohman’s a 31-year old lefty reliever and Pepperdine alum who’s made it into at least 56 games in each of the last four seasons with the Cubs and Braves, with ERA+ marks of 151, 112, 94, and 112. Plus, he’s absolutely murder on lefties (.571 OPS against in 2008), which makes him unlike Beimel (who’s actually harder on righties) and Kuo (who kills everyone, but isn’t really a situational kind of guy).

So when he became another victim of the lousy free agent market and signed with the Dodgers late in spring training, I was thrilled (and had only mentioned it about eleven times in March during the whole song-and-dance).

But there were worries from the beginning. Having missed most of spring training, Ohman was behind in his conditioning and was hit hard almost immediately. In 21 games over the first two months, he got shelled, somehow allowing a .609 SLG and .979 OPS in that time. On May 29, he went on the DL with a sore shoulder, experienced pain in his elbow during the rehab, and finally ended up having shoulder surgery in September. So clearly, that didn’t work out, and his 2010 option was obviously declined.

Still, I’m sad it didn’t work out. He had high socks, which rule in their own right, but he was also one of the funniest players the Dodgers have ever had. You know it’s good when sportswriters are breaking their own rules by cheering for him, but also check out these two videos:

So long, Will.

Claudio Vargas (C)
(0-0, 1.64, 1.000 WHIP)

Sometimes you sign a mediocre veteran to a minimum salary contract, and you hope for the next Chan Ho Park or Jeff Weaver. Sometimes you get a nice surprise like that… and sometimes you get a guy who gets this written about him in spring training…

I had a whole section on Claudio Vargas written out, mostly about how unlike Milton, Estes, and Weaver, he was given a major-league contract rather than just a spring training invite. But all that’s out the window after Monday, because Claudio Vargas has committed the unthinkable: he allowed a home run to our favorite fat sack of crap, Andruw Jones. That alone should disqualify him – and if it doesn’t, the three other homers he’s allowed in just 8.1 innings so far ought to. Odds: Andruw Jones’ weight times a hundred-to-1.

…before being put on the 60-day DL with arm troubles, missing the first three months of the season. So to say Claudio Vargas was an afterthought is putting it lightly.

But then something crazy happened; when Vargas returned in July, he was good. Really good. In 11 innings over 8 relief outings, he allowed just 2 ER, struck out 10, and held opponents to a puny .184/.279/.263 (.542 OPS) line. Sure, it was only 11 innings, and nothing in his history suggested he could keep that up – I get that. Still, with the depleted Dodger staff at the time, any contributions were welcome.

So what happened? The Dodgers traded him for a 29-year-old backup catcher hitting .249 on Milwaukee’s AA team, Vinny Rottino. This didn’t make sense to me at the time…

Believe it or not, Vargas has actually been pretty good for the Dodgers since coming off the DL. 11 innings isn’t much of a sample size, but he’s allowed only 11 baserunners and 2 runs in that time, with a nice 10/4 K/BB ratio. I’m hardly crushed that he’s gone, but did we really need Vinny Rottino? He’s 29 with all of 18 MLB games under his belt, and he’s so highly thought of that he’s being sent to AA. You almost feel bad for the guy, being a Wisconsin native and all, now being shipped out to Chattanooga.

No, what this feels like is a way to clear out a roster spot for George Sherrill, but there were better ways to do that. DFA Jason Schmidt, for one, and no, I don’t care that he’s tonight’s starter. Send down James McDonald or Scott Elbert, if you must, because you know that either one would be right back up in a week.

Vargas wasn’t great, but he was at least useful, while Vinny Rottino looks unlikely to ever play a single game as a Dodger. I hate to act as though I’m all worked up over losing Claudio Vargas, of all people, but this move just makes no sense at all.

…and it doesn’t make any more sense now. Vargas went to Milwaukee and continued to excel (1.78 ERA, .530 OPS against), Rottino went to Chattanooga, never to be heard from, and I still can’t find a good reason for any of it.

Travis Schlichting (inc.)
(0-0, 3.38, 2.250 WHIP)

Signs that your newest reliever may not have been a top prospect: when MSTI’s first mention of him was pointing out that his Wikipedia page showed him as a third baseman for the Devil Rays. (Actually, it still does. Doesn’t anyone want to go fix that?)

Schlichting actually had a pretty nice minor league season (in 29.1 IP across 3 levels, he allowed just 3 earned runs), but the less said about his major league stint the better. He got into 2 June games, managing to walk 5 and allow a Ryan Howard homer in first major league at-bat. So, yikes.

Still, those minor league numbers are nice, and it’s important to remember that he’s only been a pitcher since 2007, having turned himself around from being a failed third baseman. He’ll likely start 2010 in the minors, but don’t be surprised to see him back in the bigs – and maybe even do well enough to get himself a real Wikipedia picture.

——-

So that’s it! We’re done with reviews. I suppose I should probably write something up for Joe Torre as well, and I probably will at some point. Damn it, why isn’t there VORM for managers?

MSTI’s 2009 in Review: Relievers, Part 2

November 16, 2009 at 7:44 am | Posted in 2009 in review, Guillermo Mota, Hong-Chih Kuo, James McDonald, Jeff Weaver, Scott Elbert | 2 Comments

Back to the bullpen – part 2 of 3!

Jeff Weaver (A++)
(6-4, 3.65, 1.519 WHIP)

Here we have another case where keeping in mind how our judging system works is very important. It’s based on what we expected from a guy before the season, not on how he stacks up against anyone else. Expectations for Jeff Weaver? Well, remember how bad his 2008 was; he put up a 6.07 for the Indians and 6.22 for the Brewers, allowing astounding HR/9 averages of 2.12 and 1.47, respectively. Those are the kind of numbers that get you sent to the glue factory, especially if you’re a soft-tossing righty on the wrong side of 30.

Oh, and did I mention that those 2008 numbers were put up for the AAA teams of the aforementioned squads? So you’ll forgive me for not being excited at all by his signing…

Why stop there? What’s Kelly Wunsch up to? Derek Thompson? Hell, let’s go get the whole gang back together. Rob @ 6-4-2 was the first place I saw this, so let’s give him the scoop:

Dodgers Sign Jeff Weaver To Minor-League Deal
According to MLB.com. You can’t have too much pitching, unless it’s bad.

That’s right: I’m so sick of Manny-mania and A-Rod’s pharmaceutical helpers that the signing of a washed-up veteran pitcher who was never really all that good in the first place to a minor league deal is what passes for news right now. I’m not going to get too worked up over a minor league invite, because there’s really no risk involved, but holy jesus was Jeff Weaver awful in 2008. If you saw a pitcher who put up ERAs of 6.07 and 6.22, with WHIPs of 1.62 and 1.53, for his two teams last year, you’d say something like, “Woof. That guy got eaten alive. What the hell is he doing in the bigs?” – and you’d be well within reason to do so. Now, what do you say when you find out that those numbers came in stops for Buffalo and Nashville in AAA?

Hey, maybe there’s a chance that Jeff Weaver is the 2009 recipient of the Aaron Sele/Scott Erickson/Chan Ho Park Memorial “I’m Not a Corpse Just Yet, Bitches!” Award.

And maybe I’m a Chinese jet pilot.

Funny I mention that award (why didn’t I keep naming it that?) because after spending most of April back in AAA, Weaver came up to claim that very award after just a few short weeks…

Which brings us to the 2009 recipient of the “I’m Not Dead Yet, Dammit!” Award, given annually to the over-30 Dodger pitcher plucked off the scrap heap in hopes of recapturing some glimmer of his past glory, even if that “past glory” was never all that great to begin with. Oh, I know it’s just May 6 and it’s only been 9 innings, but A) hey, it’s been a great 9 innings and B) if we award this now, we can avoid having to consider Eric Milton or Shawn Estes for it later.

So ladies and gentlemen, allow me to present to you, Jeff Weaver. Mr. Weaver is more than qualified for this award, having not had a league-average season since 2004, and bottoming out last season by toiling away in the minors all year long – and even failing at that, putting up a 6.17 ERA for two AAA teams. While it’s not a requirement that the recipient be a former Dodger, it does seem to be tradition, which Weaver fulfilled by pitching in Blue in 2004-05. It’s also a requirement that the idea of his signing seems so ridiculous that it’s all we can do to not laugh out loud.

Though it was probably a bit premature to hand out the award so soon, Weaver proved he was the best candidate by stepping in whenever the Dodgers needed him all season. Need a starter? Weaver filled that role 7 times, going 2-1 with a 3.13 ERA. How about a long reliever? 47.1 more innings, 3.99 ERA.

Now, let’s not make the mistake of thinking Weaver was good, because a 1.519 WHIP is actually kind of lousy. Still, that’s besides the point here. Weaver’s career was officially DOA, and he managed to at least be a valuable contributor to a playoff team, including nice work in the NLDS. So you better believe he deserves his A++.

For next year, I won’t mind at all if he moves on. If he’s so intent on being a Dodger that he’ll come back for a non-guaranteed invite, then by all means, but he’s not worth giving any real money to. Here’s a thought, though; let’s sign him as a part-time player who only pitches at home. How much does this guy like Dodger Stadium? At home, he allowed just a .681 OPS for a 2.93 ERA. On the road? .947, 4.64. Yikes.

Hong-Chih Kuo (B)
(2-0, 3.00, 1.133 WHIP)

I don’t know why I bother writing something new for Kuo every year. We all know the story by now; he’ll be great when he’s available, but he’ll always miss at least a few weeks with his held-together-by-spit-and-duct-tape left elbow.

2009 was more of the same. After an April that wasn’t as bad as the 6.75 ERA made it seem (scoreless outings in 5 of 7 chances), Kuo missed all of May and June, and most of July, with soreness in that elbow – as though it could possibly have been anything else. Don’t forget how that happened, of course – when he tried to warm up in the bullpen, only 4 of 15 tosses were catchable by the receiver, and 2 actually ended up on the field, interrupting the game.

Kuo finally returned on July 27, and from then on was his usual unhittable self. No, really – hitters had just a .188/.266./271 line against him. The Dodger trainers actually started calling him “Cockroach”, a term that’s much more respectful than it sounds, referring as it does to his seeming ability to overcome anything.

Kuo’s acknowledgement of the work the Dodger medical staff does for him is actually of tantamount importance, because he’s arbitration-eligible this offseason. It’s hard to imagine the Dodgers wanting to commit many millions of dollars to a guy who might be injured as much as he’s available, but if Kuo is intent on staying, he might be willing to sign a lower-salaried deal to remain under the care of the trainers and doctors who know him so well. You never know how many more pitches are left in that arm (he’s still just 28), but I think we’d all like to see him remain in Dodger blue for as long as possible.

Guillermo Mota (B…ish)
(3-4, 3.44, 1.179 WHIP)

For a mediocre 35-year-old reliever with an up-and-down history who didn’t even get consideration for the playoff roster, we sure did have a lot to say about Guillermo Mota this year. First there was the utter apathy at his signing in January…

As for the actual signing, it gets a solid “meh”. I don’t know what the contract details are, but it’s unlikely to be a huge amount of money, and Mota was basically average last year. But do we really have a shortage of guys who could do exactly what he could, for less money and without his history? I suppose we can hope that he’s going to be the next Giovanni Carrera-type who only pitches well as a Dodger.

Then, once the season got going, we spent a few weeks wondering how long he’d last, which is what carrying an ERA over 6 into June will do for you…

At the moment, I don’t care whether Mota is hopped up on steroids, PCP, or Yoo-Hoo, because whatever he’s doing, it just isn’t working. After giving up 6 hits and 3 runs in just 2 innings to blow yesterday’s game in extra innings, his ERA now stands at 7.42 and he’s given up multiple runs in 5 of his 14 appearances. He’s 35, and his WHIP is 2.175. I don’t care about his contract – it’s over. Really, if the team ever gets down below 13 pitchers, he ought to be the man to go. Will he be? I doubt it.

Indeed he was not, for just a week later…

There’s one thing I’d like to touch upon: the continued employment of Guillermo Mota. We’ve mentioned how horrible he is before around here, and I’ve hardly been alone in that – even before Sunday’s disaster raised his ERA to 9.00, with 11 ER in his last 8.2 IP.

But whether or not Guillermo Mota is a terrible pitcher right now isn’t really the issue, nor is the thought that he hasn’t really been effective in nearly five years – or one steroid suspension ago. No, the question is, why haven’t the Dodgers done anything about it?

The “Sunday disaster” I referred to above was the May 17th debacle in which Mota allowed 4 ER in 1.2 IP, getting to that nice round 9.00 ERA. I still don’t know how he managed to last as long as he did, but there was one Dodger who did do something about it: Brad Ausmus, of all people.

And you had to figure that, sooner rather than later, the axe was going to fall. But then a funny thing happened; in his next appearance, 5 days later against the Angels, Mota threw a scoreless inning. Then another, two days later, also against the Angels, and another the following day in Colorado. Before you knew it, Mota had run off 11 scoreless outings in a row – a streak which has now made it to 18 of 19. In those 19 games, Mota’s ERA is a miniscule 0.41, allowing just 10 hits and a .406 OPS in 22 innings – with a remarkable 17/4 K/BB ratio. An ERA that was 9.00 after 15 games is now 3.89 after 34.

So what the hell happened? It’s not the first time Mota has ripped off a hot streak after hitting the skids – unfortunately, the last time that happened, it was immediately followed by a 50-game steroid suspension. (Seriously, check out the timeline. It couldn’t be more incriminating if he had called a national press conference to show people exactly how he injected.) For a pitcher turning 36 this month, showing no ability to be successful whatsoever, and with his history, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to think he’d made a desperate attempt to stick in the bigs, no matter what the cost.

Fortunately for us, there’s a far less sordid answer to this turnaround – Brad Ausmus, pitching coach extraordinaire. For you see, Ausmus was the catcher on that disastrous night in Miami…

Mota said teammate Brad Ausmus told him that when Ausmus faced Mota in the past, he had trouble picking up the ball until it was almost being released. But in catching Mota this year, Ausmus said he picked up the ball sooner.

“That was a good tip right there,” said Mota, who huddled with Honeycutt and bullpen coach Ken Howell. Honeycutt went to the archives, digging up video of Mota pitching for the Dodgers in his first stint in 2004 and ‘05.

Mota viewed the video at home and on the plane during the club’s recent trip and discovered that he no longer was swinging his leg or holding his left arm high.

Hard to believe that such minor changes could have such dramatic effects, but there it is. Mota wasn’t even a big-league quality pitcher beforehand, and since he’s been one of the most effective relievers in baseball.

The turnaround is just insane, if you look at it. As I said, the ERA stood at 9.00 on May 17th. Between that day – the day that Ausmus “fixed” him – and Mota being placed on the DL with an ingrown toenail on September 1, Mota was dominating. In 42 games, he had a 1.53 ERA and allowed opponents the miniscule line of just .168/.233/.292.

Oh, and he threw at Prince Fielder, causing Fielder to attempt to storm the Dodger clubhouse. So there was that.

I have to admit – I’m intrigued by his turnaround this year. Still, he’ll be 36 in 2010. If he’s willing to come back on a non-guaranteed contract, I’m all for giving him a shot. If someone else wants to toss him another guaranteed million, let him walk.

James McDonald (C-)
(5-5, 4.00, 1.492 WHIP)

You may remember back in spring training, there was a pretty hilarious battle for the fifth starter’s role, including such luminaries as Jason Schmidt, Shaun Estes, Eric Milton, Eric Stults, Claudio Vargas – and our man James McDonald. We made no secret of our preference for McDonald at the time, saying…

James McDonald. I know, Rick Honeycutt all but announced that McDonald would start off in the bullpen, just like Chad Billingsley. It doesn’t change my opinion that he’s the man I’d like to see in the role more than anyone else listed here, so I’m still including him for comparison’s sake. The thing to remember here is that, even though most casual fans have been hearing about Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw about ten times longer than they have McDonald, James is just three months younger than Billingsley and 3.5 years older than Kershaw. The point is, he’s not that young, and we all remember how impressive he was in his stint in the playoffs last year. He’s off to somewhat of a rough spring start, allowing 4 earned runs in 5.2 innings, but that 5/0 K/BB ratio is tasty. I don’t really mind starting off our young pitchers in the bullpen, but I also don’t think that making him the 5th starter is really unfair to his development, either. Odds: 100,000-1, despite probably being the best candidate.

Of course, as the old and busted among that herd quickly got thinned out, McDonald’s chances skyrocketed, to the point that just over a week later, I was painting him as the favorite, saying…

* James McDonald is the man! I’ve been hoping that McDonald would win this competition for some time (see: here and here) but I never really thought he’d have a prayer. But after blowing away Cleveland yesterday, facing the minimum nine batters over three innings, he’s squarely put himself in the mix – and if you believe Tony Jackson, McDonald’s actually in the lead. I’ve always felt the reason that they didn’t want McDonald winning the spot is that the team preferred to not have 3/5 of its starting rotation being under 25, though of course I would love that. Besides, as I mentioned previously, McDonald’s not that young – just a few months younger than Billingsley. He’s been the Dodger Minor League Pitcher of the Year in each of the last two seasons, and considering that the 5th starter spot comes up only four times in April, isn’t that the perfect time to get him going? Let’s go James!

Win he did, and he launched his major league career by being the immediately successful pitcher we all knew he could be. By which I of course mean, “was so bad – in 13.1 IP over 4 starts, allowed 13 ER and 14 BB against just 6 K – that he was out of the rotation by the end of the month and back in the minors by mid-May.”

So, it didn’t start out that smoothly. Still, there’s much more to the James McDonald story this year. He resurfaced in the bigs at the end of June, remaining in the bullpen for the rest of the year. The turnaround was startling; after a 8.78 ERA in his short time as a starter, he put up an excellent 2.72 as a reliever. Where he’d walked more than twice as many as he’d struck out as a starter, he completely turned that around out of the bullpen, striking out 48 to 20 free passes allowed.

For a player who didn’t turn 25 until after the season ended, that’s a pretty impressive stretch, and it shows that the talent is still there. He certainly wouldn’t be the first rookie to falter after being thrown directly into the Opening Day rotation. I’d still like to see him get another crack at the rotation, but if not, you at least know you’ve got a quality bullpen arm or a nice piece of trade bait.

Scott Elbert (C-)
(2-0, 5.03, 1.322 WHIP)

Here’s a case where the stats are very misleading, because Elbert’s line looks pretty lousy, giving him a 6.66 career ERA over 25.2 IP. Elbert’s year is a lot more complicated than that, though. He had four seperate stints with the Dodgers, and the first one was disastrous – three April outings ended up with five runs allowed in 6.1 innings. He got three more appearances in July, three more in August, and ten more in September.

ERA is useless in a situation like that, because the small sample size means that any runs allowed are skewed far too highly. No, what’s important is what Elbert did against the men at the plate, and in that regard he fared better, because anytime you have a 23-year-old lefty striking out more than a man per inning, you know you’ve got some real talent there.

What’s more in question is how that talent is going to be used in Elbert’s future. Despite appearing only out of the ‘pen in LA, he was a starter in the minors, and very nearly picked up a start for the Dodgers in August. Either way, he should be in the bigs full-time in 2010, another year off of major 2007 arm surgery. Like McDonald, you know he’s got the skills to succeed in the bigs, and whether that’s as a starter or reliever remains to be seen.

Next! Will Ohman’s failure! Cory Wade’s trail of tears! Claudio Vargas was apparently a Dodger this year! And MSTI tries vainly to write something about Brent Leach and Travis Schlichting!