Monthly Archives: November 2009

My, How Times Have Changed

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While we wait to see which Dodgers will get offered arbitration and which free agents other teams will sign, I thought it’d be interesting to take a quick step back and see what we were discussing one year ago at this time. Believe it or not, it wasn’t entirely “all Manny, all the time”. So what was the topic du jour on November 30, 2008?

For all the talk flying around about CC Sabathia, Manny Ramirez, and whether we should prefer a winning baseball team or helping children, it’s really looking more and more likely that shortstop is going to be the most important decision the Dodgers have to make this offseason. With Rafael Furcal sounding like he’s all but a memory (likely to the A’s or Giants), Chin-Lung Hu hardly impressive in 2008, and Ivan DeJesus, Jr. not ready to be handed the Opening Day gig, the Dodgers are going to have to find a shortstop somewhere.

Which then led to a discussion of the merits, or lack thereof, of Jack Wilson, Edgar Renteria, Orlando Cabrera, and *shudders as cold hand of death traces down my spine* Angel Berroa. Of course, Furcal came back, and the crisis was averted, though he of course was thoroughly mediocre.

How about in 2007? On December 2 of that year, we were drowing in ridiculous trade rumors:

For all of the rumors the Dodgers have been involved in over the last 3 weeks or so, they’ve all been pretty much the same.

- Dodgers to trade Kemp, Kershaw, Loney, Koufax, Hershiser to Marlins for Cabrera!
- Dodgers to trade LaRoche, Martin, Hu, Lasorda, Hodges to Twins for Santana!
- Dodgers to sign Aaron Rowand to a 7 year, $187 million deal!

And so forth. But tomorrow, friends, expect the rumor mill to really heat up. For all of our baseball heroes – you know, management – descend on the Opryland Hotel in Nashville, TN. Or as Buster Olney describes it, “a terrible work environment, a terrible place to get things done.”

After so much excitement the last two years, this year seems to be a long slog towards not trading for an “ace” and seeing what bottom of the barrel guys are still left out there in February, along with praying that some of the young talent (i.e., MATT KEMP) gets signed to long-term deals.

Then again, I guess not everything has changed, because what were we talking about on November 26, 2008? That’s right; how much we despise the McCourts:

I know Jamie McCourt is a smart woman with her fancy degrees and all, but I am actually getting offended with how stupid she thinks baseball fans are. Are you really, truly, honestly suggesting that if contracts weren’t guaranteed, then underperforming players would be cut loose and their salary given to the community? Would you really be giving the $18 million or so due Andruw Jones to needy families? Or are you saying that you can’t afford to give more to charity because your cash is all tied up in expensive players? We’ve said pretty much everything bad you can say about Juan Pierre around here, but “takes food out of the mouths of orphans” isn’t exactly a level we’ve made it to yet.

Hmm. I suppose the more things change, they more they do stay the same.

Sunday: A Day for Rumors and Self-Promotion

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Last day of a holiday weekend at the slowest time of the year? Oh, you better believe it’s time for a round-up.

Monday is arbitration day, and the Dodgers better not screw it up. We’ve been saying this for months, but there is absolutely no reason to not offer arbitration to both Randy Wolf and Orlando Hudson. True Blue LA outlines why offering Hudson arbitration is an absolute must (which I of course agree with), but also mentions why it’s a really bad sign if the Dodgers don’t:

If the Dodgers are so risk averse as to try to avoid the infinitesimal chance the Hudson would cost them another $8 million or so, that’s a bad sign.  Only good things can happen by offering Hudson arbitration:

  • Hudson declines arbitration, signs elsewhere, and the Dodgers get two draft picks in 2010
  • Hudson accepts arbitration, Dodgers get a 2.5 to 3-win player for a one-year deal

If the Dodgers don’t offer arbitration, it will be for monetary reasons only.  Saving money in the short-term on things they should be spending money on will only hurt the team in the long run.

Prediction:  I hope I’m wrong, but the Dodgers won’t offer Hudson arbitration.

If they don’t, then things truly are worse than we’d thought.

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I’ve given up hoping for a Juan Pierre trade, because it will inevitably only lead to sadness. The LA Times with a quick note about the possibility of our favorite backup outfielder leaving town:

The Dodgers are expected to explore the possibility of dealing fourth outfielder Juan Pierre for an overpaid back-of-the-rotation pitcher in a trade that would essentially amount to a swap of bad contracts. Pierre is owed $18.5 million over the next two seasons.

This is basically the idea I was running with when I said that Pierre should be traded for Mets 2B Luis Castillo in the 2010 plan. So who would that player be? Every time this comes up, I keep hearing about trading Pierre to the Reds for either Aaron Harang ($12.5m in 2010, $2.5m buyout of $12.5m in 2011) or Bronson Arroyo ($11m in 2010, $2m buyout of $11m in 2011).

But I just don’t see that happening. The Reds don’t need Pierre; they already have Willy Taveras, who’s about as mediocre as Pierre, and have Jay Bruce and Drew Stubbs in the outfield as well. In addition, Harang and Arroyo are both more valuable to the Reds than Pierre would be (each had positive ERA+ scores last year in a small ballpark) and each is owed less money than Pierre is in a time where the Reds are trying to cut cash. So that’s not a fit.

There’s really not a great fit out there, unfortunately. Most teams won’t add a salary like Pierre’s for the small return he’d give them. Among the ones that might, they don’t all need an outfielder, and among those, not all have an overpriced pitcher they’re willing to move. I really think he’s stuck here for another season.

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Good news coming from the minors, finally. Much has been made about how the top of the Dodger system has been relatively barren recently, since all of those prospects have since graduated to the big club. That’s still true, but there’s a good amount of guys quickly moving up from the lower levels, and Jim Callis of Baseball America mentioned a few of them in his ESPN chat a few days ago:

rayg (burlington, NJ):

Jim-thanks for the chat. Dee Gordon-will he be able to hit enough to make it to LA in the next 2-3 years? Do you see him moving up to Inland Empire or Chattanooga in 2010?

Jim Callis:

I do think he’ll hit enough. He has hit .331 and .301 in two pro seasons despite his inexperience, and his speed should keep him out of slumps. I think he’ll continue the more he plays. The plan is for him to start 2010 in high Class A, but I could see him in Double-A by the end of the year.

brian (Pasadena):

Hey Jim,Is Allan Webster anything for Dodger fans to get excited about?

Jim Callis:

Yes, yes he is. Unknown when the Dodgers took him in the 18th round of the 2008 draft out of a North Carolina HS, he has an effortless 94-mph fastball and promising secondary pitches.

Jose (Long Beach, CA):

How is the dodger farm system right now. It seems that its young but they have solid players in Withrow, Martin, Miller, Gordon and Webster. When will McCheap start looking at international players since the dodgers where the pioneers

Jim Callis:

The Dodgers have graduated a lot of talent to the majors this decade, and they’re currently replenishing the system. It’s stronger at the lower levels than the upper levels, but those guys you mentioned and some others are promising. LA thinks the international market is less efficient than the draft, and it has focused on the draft rather than big-money foreign signings. They generally don’t go over slot and get good bang for their buck, but it’s also a disadvantage when most teams are outspending you on the draft and internationally.

I’d never really heard of Allan Webster before, but he’s someone I’ll keep an eye on now.

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Have any baseball fans who need a gift with the holiday shopping season coming up? Time for a little self-promotion. Just like I did last year, I’ve contributed Dodger analysis for the Graphical Player 2010, which is a fantastic resource for baseball fans and especially fantasy players. I remember one of the first things that really got me into baseball was recieving Bill James’ baseball annual for Christmas in 1987 or so at about six years old, and spending weeks reading through the hundreds of pages of analysis. (sidenote: dammit! I wish I’d been inspired to start a blog at that point. I could have been king of the world by now). You could be starting someone off on their own path of baseball fandom, or you could just slide into the position of “favored relative” by giving a fan this amongst their other gifts of sweaters, socks, and unwanted DVDs.

Anyway, a lot of very smart people put a lot of hard work into this book, and if you’re a baseball fan or have any gifts to buy for people who are, you could do a lot worse than spending twenty bucks on stats, commentary, and predictions on over 1,000 ballplayers. Here’s a quick description of what you’ll find:

Graphical Player includes dashboards for over 1,000 ballplayers from both the majors and the minors, chosen expressly for their interest to fantasy leaguers. Graphical Player is now bigger and better than ever. Key features include:

  • Projected and historical dollar values for single and mixed Roto leagues, as well as tallies for points leagues
  • Four years of career stats, including splits for RH/LH and 1st-half/2nd-half
  • Support for a variety of fantasy categories, including Caught Stealing, Complete Games, Blow Saves, Holds, Quality Starts, and more
  • Minor-league stats down to Single-A for 2009 for every player
  • A unique “mini-browser” showing five players with similar projections at the same positions
  • Profiles of more than 100 prospects, with independent rankings from three experts
  • Speculative rosters for every MLB team for 2010, 2011, and 2012
  • Sentiment indicators for “buy-low” and “sell-high” candidates
  • Full player stats by team for 2009
  • Groundbreaking metrics like xFIP, wOBA, and Wins Above Replacement

Great, right? Here’s the link to order, and it’ll be out next week.

Just Go to Boston Already, Marco

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So here’s a name we haven’t discussed around here before, and with good reason: Marco Scutaro. Scutaro’s spent the last six years in Oakland and Toronto as a somewhat-useful infield supersub before being given the Blue Jay shortstop gig full time last year, coming through with a surprisingly nice .282/.379/.404 line for a 111 OPS+.

That makes him the top shortstop in a lousy free-agent market, and with Toronto recently signing Boston’s Alex Gonzalez, all indications are that Scutaro shouldn’t be hesistating in putting down a payment on homes in Boston. MLBtraderumors even went so far as to say he’s “destined to end up” there.

So what does this have to do with the Dodgers? Well, for some reason they don’t appear to be letting him go to Boston without a fight (also via MLBTR):

Free agent Marco Scutaro is said to prefer the Dodgers and Red Sox because they give him the best chance to make the postseason, according to a report by Augusto Cardenas of Diaro Panorama, which was passed along by MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian. Geoff Baker of The Seattle Times has a quote from Scutaro on the situation:

“Boston is interested, like the Dodgers, Seattle and Texas,” Scutaro said. “They have just called to say they have interest, but they haven’t made an offer yet.

“The Dodgers want me to play second base, shortstop in Boston, and there are other teams who have called to play third. Although not close the doors, I would rather be between short and second.”

I still think he’s going to end up in Boston regardless, but let’s at least take this opportunity to point out how much “no!” there is in this rumor. I won’t deny that Scutaro had a very good season in 2009, but he’s the classic example of a guy that some team is going to overpay and regret it – and you don’t want to be that team.

Let’s count the reasons why…

1) 2009 looks a lot like a fluke season. Scutaro was a negative value (based on wRAA, Weighted Runs Above Average) for every single season of his career before breaking out with a huge 14.3 mark in 2009. It was also the first time in his entire career he’d managed to walk more than strike out, and his BABIP increased by .015 over 2008. He’s already turned 34, and it’s incredibly rare that a player who was mediocre his entire life can keep up a sustained turnaround at that age.

2) He’s only an average fielder. Scutaro spent most of his time in 2009 at shortstop, where he was just barely above average (1.0 in UZR/150). For his career, he’s -2.9 at SS, fueled by some brutal years in Oakland (really, -28.1 in 2006? How did he get 61 starts? Yikes.)

Of course, he’d be a second baseman in LA, and he played just four innings there in 2009. For his career, he’s 0.1 in UZR/150 at the keystone, so almost exactly average. If you can hit, there’s some value in being an average defender – Adam Dunn would probably be a first-ballot Hall of Famer if he wasn’t such a trainwreck with the glove – but Scutaro’s unlikely to keep up that production at the plate.

3) He’s a type A free agent. That, of course, means you have to give up your first-round pick to sign him. How is it a good idea to give that up two years in a row for the same position? Are we really thinking of giving up a first-rounder for a mediocre 34-year-old middle infielder coming off a career year? I sure hope not.

4) You’d have to outbid Boston. This is actually a good thing, because it’s probably why Scutaro won’t be coming to LA. Still, some are saying that he might be in line for a three-year deal, which sounds like a completely horrendous idea. If he gets that, good for him. Just don’t let it be the Dodgers who hands it to him.

5) Because people smarter than I are saying almost the exact same things. Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus, hit me:

Marco Scutaro: One of the biggest mistakes in free agency is deciding that a player’s career season at an advanced age heralds some change in his level of performance, and paying him as such. Scutaro is a good utility infielder and a marginal starter who had the best year of his life at 33 on the basis of some walks, power, and defense. It wasn’t a one-category thing; he played better than he ever had before. But we have a hundred years of information that tells us that utility infielders don’t become starting shortstops at 33 on one side, and Marco Scutaro on the other. He absolutely can help a good team, but if you sign him and pay him money that indicates you think that he’s going to have 2009 three more times, you’re making a big mistake. One big year at 33 doesn’t change what a player is. Scutaro is something of a competence test for front offices this offseason, and likely to be perceived as a disappointment come next summer.

Exactly. Sure, I’d love the guy to come and be a super-utility man. But to give up a first-round draft pick and a three-year deal? Absolutely not. I don’t really see him coming, so the rumor doesn’t bother me. What does bother me is the idea that the front office is sniffing around him as though it’s a good idea.

We now return you to your regularly scheduled post-Thanksgiving gluttony.

Wait, There’s Competition For Juan Castro?

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I sure wish I could use HTML tags in the headline, because “competition” would have bold, italics, and possibly lightning bolts all around it. Something like this:

Wait, There’s Competition For Juan Castro?

MLBtraderumors passes along this hilarious hot stove tidbit from Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi:

Phils, Dodgers both want Castro — 12:10 p.m.

One month after playing one another in the National League Championship Series, the Phillies and Dodgers are pursuing the same utility player: Juan Castro.

Castro’s agent, Oscar Suarez, told FOXSports.com Tuesday that both teams are interested in the 37-year-old infielder.

Re… really? Teams are tripping over themselves to hire a guy who’ll be 38 next year and has a career OPS of .601? A guy who had an OPS in the second half last year – and this is no typo – of .317? That’s the guy teams are competing for?

“But MSTI,” you say. “Everyone knows he can’t hit. His value is as a slick-fielding defensive backup.” Sure, that might have been true 5 or 10 years ago. How has that glove held up as he’s aged? According to FanGraphs, he hasn’t even been an average fielder since 2006. In 2009 alone in UZR/150, he was actually pretty brutal, though of course in small sample sizes: -24.2 runs at SS and -3.9 at 2B. So this is clearly a guy that should be inspiring a bidding war.

No, it’s facts like that – and by “facts”, I clearly mean “a player who cannot hit or field and is old should not be on a major league roster” that inspired us to point out that Castro should be shown the door in favor of Chin-Lung Hu, a superior fielder who at least has a chance of offensive upside.

I’d launch into a diatribe about how old and busted veterans who offer no value should never ever be at the epicenter of a free agency competition… but wait! There’s hope! Todd Zolecki at MLB.com, hit me!

The Phillies appear to have found their replacement for Eric Bruntlett.

The Phillies are close to a deal with Juan Castro, who hit .277 with one home run and nine RBIs in 112 at-bats last season with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Castro’s agent, Oscar Suarez, said today that “we’re closing in on something.”

It is believed to be a one-year deal.

“Who doesn’t like the Phillies as an organization?” Suarez said. “You want to win. And who doesn’t like Juan Castro? You want to have a superb utility man to back up the guys you have up the middle. We’re trying to put this thing together. I think we’re going to get it done.”

You’re right, Oscar. Who doesn’t like Juan Castro? Well, teams trying to put together winning rosters, of course, but that’s too obvious. At least Castro’s going to the perfect sitution – one in which the starting middle infielders are consistent, durable everyday stars who rarely need a rest.