A.J. Ellis Could Actually Be Useful
November 9, 2009 at 7:20 am | Posted in A.J. Ellis, Alberto Callaspo | 21 CommentsIs it just me, or is the hot stove getting moving earlier than usual this year? We’ve already seen quite a few trades, and the World Series just ended about ten minutes ago. I suppose everyone’s frightened by what happened to guys like Orlando Hudson and Bobby Abreu last year and wants to get what they can while they can? Well, now the Dodgers are involved, because the Kansas City Star has a somewhat interesting rumor (via Diamond Leung):
One rumor to watch: A deal sending second baseman Alberto Callaspo to the Los Angeles Dodgers for catcher A.J. Ellis, a 28-year-old rookie who currently projects as a backup to Russell Martin following the anticipated free-agent departure of veteran Brad Ausmus.
Hold up there, Kansas City Star. Ausmus hasn’t announced his intentions for next year yet other than to confirm what we already knew, that he’d only be interested in playing for the Dodgers or Padres. If he decides that he wants to play one more year, we all believe the Dodgers would be willing to take him back. If he doesn’t, then there’s almost no chance that Ellis is simply handed the job.
That said, those are the exact reasons why getting something useful for Ellis would be a steal for the Dodgers. The Star tries to paint Ellis in the most positive way they can, saying…
Ellis is regarded as a strong defensive receiver with improving offensive potential. While he lacks pop — just 17 homers in 464 games over seven minor-league seasons — he batted .318 with a .437 on-base percentage in 174 games over the last two years in Class AAA.
…but by combining “the last two years”, they neglect to mention that his OPS dropped 81 points from 2008 to 2009, and that at 29 next year, there’s not a whole lot in the way of “potential” left. It’s not that he couldn’t be a useful backup catcher, it’s just that guys like him are literally a dime a dozen.
As for Callaspo, he’s a potentially useful player who’s not without his own warts. After spending his first three seasons (two with Arizona before being traded to Kansas City for P Billy Buckner) as a utilityman all over the field, 2009 was his first season as a fulltime starter, getting 142 starts at second base. Offensively, he was actually very good, putting up a line of .300/.356/.457 for an .813 OPS, along with 41 doubles and 11 homers. That .813 OPS is not only tied for 8th among MLB 2B, it’s also exactly the same number that another 2B we hear tied to the Dodgers in trade rumors – Dan Uggla – put up, despite Callaspo being 3 years younger and in the tougher league. He won’t be 27 until April, and his 52/51 BB/K ratio is outstanding and shows nice pitch recognition skills.
Of course, if Callaspo was really all that, it’d take more than A.J. Ellis to get him. He was arrested for domestic violence in 2007, though the charges were later dropped and he and his wife remain together, and he’s not a highly regarded fielder. As a fulltime 2B in 2009, his UZR/150 was -7.5, though FanGraphs believes his offense from the position outweighed his defense so much that he was really worth $12.5m this year. In fact, FanGraphs included Callaspo on their list of 2010 sleepers just yesterday:
Callaspo has a lot going for him. He repeated his good Royals debut in 2009 and instantly went on 2010 sleeper lists. He’s a high-contact hitter (91% career contact rate) with sneaky wheels (4.1 career speed score) and a good line drive stroke (19.3% career), so a good batting average is a steady part of the package he brings to the table. The biggest positive in 2009 was that he added a little power by vastly improving his fly ball rate (from 27.5% to 41.9%), but it’s the power that goes in and out for him. Just check his oscillating slugging percentage and fly ball rate for proof.
Defense will have to be part of the discussion, and Callaspo suffers by both not being great at second base (-7.5 UZR/150) and also by being capable all around the infield (400+ innings of positive UZR at SS and 3B).
As a pure baseball trade (yes, I know it’s just a rumor, and we see thousands each offseason, but this is at least a new one so it gives me something to write about) this would be great for the Dodgers. Ellis is a completely replaceable part, and Callaspo is a good hitter who’s expendable because of Kansas City’s recent trade for Chris Getz.
But with the new McCourt world we’re living in, the question always has to be asked, “is this about money?” Callaspo won’t be arbitration eligible until after 2010, making him a cheap acquisition. The ideal situation seems to be that he comes in to be an infielder off the bench, capable of stepping in at any of the three non-1B spots or outfield in a pinch, with a worthy bat for pinch-hitting.
Now, if the idea would be to drop him in as the starting 2B and be done with it, then it’s a reasonable question to ask if the impetus behind this is just to fill the hole in the cheapest manner possible. Still, the talent coming in would more than exceed the talent going out, so it’s a worthwhile move to acquire Callaspo and sort out his role as the winter goes on.
Or, more likely, this is just a rumor out of Kansas City that we never hear again. Whichever.
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Rotoworld says Adrian Gonzalez is available again. I’ve a few thoughts about this. First, holy shit can we get this guy? A 27 year old, left-handed, power hitting, gold glove caliber, first baseman with a 141 OPS+ over the last three years!! Second, what the hell do we have to give up to get this guy? I know the trade rumored at the deadline was Gonzalez & Heath Bell for Loney, Russell Martin, DeWitt, McDonald, & DeJesus. If Loney & Martin will get Gonzalez, am I insane to consider this? I mean, I’m sure we can find some catcher with league average production to fill in for Martin, right? Martins OPS+ over the last three years, including his best year, is 101. It’s not like we can’t replace that. And it’d be nice to deal him when he’s still got some potential upside. After the 2007 season (where his OPS+ was 113) I thought, if there was a good deal to be had, we should’ve traded him. His season seemed like such an aberration. Anyway, as much as I love Loney, I’m sure I could learn to love Gonzalez and his ridiculous production. Either, Manny, Gonzo, & Kemp would be a killer 2-5 (it’s even L-R-L-R!). Ah, this winter is going to be such a let down.
Comment by John Clevenger — November 9, 2009 #
If all it took were Loney and Martin, then sure, sign me up. But I can’t imagine the Padres would let him go for so little.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness — November 9, 2009 #
I think they would at least listen to Martin. Loney, and J-Mac. They would be getting three useful guys under team control for a few years. Gonzo is quickly going to be more expensive than those 3 combined.
As the Padres are not going to contend for around 3-4 years and they have no chance of signing Gonzo long-term…they might listen to that package
Comment by Kenny 'Mr Falcon' Brooks — November 9, 2009 #
Giving up Martin, Loney, and McD is a bit scary, but this probably means we’re getting closer to fair compensation. Mike here and Chad at MOKM have me rather worried about our financial position. This trade would have us give up 3 young and cheap options and replace them with 1 expensive guy and 2 holes which need to be filled with more money.
Comment by John Clevenger — November 9, 2009 #
Actually, Adrian Gonzalez isn’t very expensive right now. He’s actually quite cheap.
I suppose the concern would be how much he would cost in a few years, but hopefully that situation is resolved by then, and the Dodgers are a big market team that should be able to afford resigning him.
Comment by kensai — November 10, 2009 #
I feel like other teams could offer more than Loney, Martin and J-Mac, but perhaps not– Loney still could be an above average player, Russell Martin seems to be highly regarded among his peers… so you never know. But I would imagine there are higher-upside packages out there for someone as talented as A-Gonz.
Comment by Erich — November 9, 2009 #
I was wondering since im pretty sure that their respective teams will pick them up for a cheaper price anyway but what for you think of possibly having Feliz backing Blake and Gonzalez (Bos) backing up Furcal. i know its kind of dreaming to try and get these guys and with rumors that we dont have enough money to pay wolf going around just wondering what your thoughts are
Comment by Johnny — November 9, 2009 #
Both of those guys want starting gigs, they wouldn’t come to LA just to be backups to Blake and Furcal.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness — November 9, 2009 #
As someone who has watched Callaspo development for years, there’s much more about him. You mention some defensive liability but i think those struggles are more an anomaly than a rule. I’ve seen him to perform in every infield position and in the corners of the outfield, even making great plays worthy of a Major Leaguer Gold Glove.
He’s very patient at the plate, contact switch hitter, gets on base like crazy, good runner with outstanding base running smarts, performs well under the pressure and a warrior on the field, whatever his off-field antics are or were.
This trade would be very nice for the Dodgers, in the case DeWitt doesn’t improve his offense in the Dominican Republic or Hu doesn’t look ready for the big leagues yet.
Though, there’s something going on with Callaspo: he was hit by pitch on his right knee on Friday night. Doctors say it’s not important but he didn’t play in the rest of the weekend, even when there was a doubleheader and the team he’s playing in has great defensive problems.
Sidenote:DeWitt had 2 RBI on the last night game, he’s been struggling there but to be fair, he’s played 7 games.
Comment by karina — November 9, 2009 #
Interesting info Karina, thanks! I hadn’t heard anything about Callaspo being injured in the winter leagues, but if it’s just a HBP I assume it’s nothing major.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness — November 9, 2009 #
His right knee got inflamed but he’s scheduled to start tonight. That HBP was harsh and we witnessed it and got worried about it.
Comment by karina — November 10, 2009 #
How could KC give up Callaspo for that?…I’m having trouble believing this rumor…Callaspo would be a nice fit in L.A though.
Comment by Lex S. — November 9, 2009 #
I saw this rumor and I can think is that Callaspo’s past indiscretions and the fact that the Royals just got Chris Getz makes Callaspo redundant. If all they want is Ellis, Ned best make that trade now.
Granted, Callaspo had some yips defensively, but how much of that can be because Billy Butler and Mike Jacobs manned first for the Royals? Neither will make anyone forget JT Snow or James Loney with the glove. Given the options of Felipe Lopez, Ronnie Belliard or any other free agent, Callaspo offers a cheap option.
Comment by grabarkewitz — November 9, 2009 #
Well if it’s simply the past indescretions that are keeping down his value, the I say bring him over. The cost is cheap and, if it works (as in the case of Vincente Padilla), the payoff can be very high.
Comment by Doug — November 9, 2009 #
3 steps to trading (and winning) with Ned Colletti
1. Dangle a player you know Ned wants or needs (Callaspo), but refuse to name a price
2. Release through the media a semi-plausible steal for Ned
3. Once hooked, tell him who you really want.
4. Highly Ranked prospect for Callaspo!
Comment by Erich — November 9, 2009 #
That would seem to be the modus operandi with Ned. Of course, with those fun McCourt kids’ continual money issues, anything involving a player making more than Frank is not going to happen.
Comment by grabarkewitz — November 9, 2009 #
A great question for MSTI to look at is who will fill the 2B spot when Hudson invariably leaves. MLBtraderumors has Felipe Lopez as a good pick for the Blue.
Whaddaya think? Is Lopez a good fit?
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/11/2010-top-50-free-agents.html
Comment by Mike Sharperson Lives! — November 9, 2009 #
i just heard this from the grape vine that Marc Cuban might be interested in buying the Dodgers. . . dont know how to feel about this i guess it could be worse it could be Al Davis
Comment by Johnny — November 9, 2009 #
As least Cuban has money and no one can accuse him of not spending what it takes to put out a winner. Even with his personality and authourity issues, he would be a breath of fresh air compared to the McCourts.
Comment by grabarkewitz — November 9, 2009 #
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/dodgerthoughts/2009/11/mark-cuban-answers-questions-about-his-interest-in-the-dodgers.html
true its more than i can say for the McCircus we have on our hands
Comment by johnny — November 9, 2009 #
or we could still have Tony Abreu and not care about this
Comment by Table — November 10, 2009 #