How Do We Feel About Moving Andre Ethier?
December 2, 2009 at 7:48 am | Posted in Andre Ethier, Brandon Morrow, Clay Buccholz, Jair Jurrjens, John Danks, Phil Hughes | 21 CommentsI know, I know. It’s basically blasphemy to even bring it up, what with his huge step forward last season to be the first Dodger 30-homer hitter since 2004, string of amazing walkoffs, and obvious appeal to the female and non-traditional male fanbase.
I’m not suggesting this is what I would do or that this is what they will do, necessarily. It’s just that with the events of yesterday’s shocking lack of arbitration offers shedding more light on just how dire the Dodger financial situation may be, it’s not a stretch to see this series of events happen. Hear me out on this…
1) The Dodgers are not going to be able to sign or trade for a stud veteran pitcher. Roy Halladay and his $15.75m in 2010 plus the extension you’d need to sign him to? Out, even if you could strike a deal with Toronto. John Lackey and the $80-$100m deal he figures to sign? No chance. This is a team that was too afraid of the 1% chance that Randy Wolf would return for $8m or so to collect the two draft picks; you really think they’re going to be able to go out and afford any quality pitcher? Hell no. So you’re looking at what, guys like Jose Contreras, Kip Wells, and Pedro Martinez? Bring one of them in to see if they can be this year’s miracle retread 5th starter if you must, but you can’t count on them for anything beyond that. So there’s no way a top pitcher is coming to LA who costs more than a few million. But the problem with not getting a top pitcher is…
2) The Dodgers just can’t start 2010 with Chad Billingsley, Clayton Kershaw, Hiroki Kuroda, and dreams. Kershaw’s a lock, of course, and well on the path to acedom. But after him? I’ve been the biggest Billingsley supporter of just about anyone, but even I can’t pretend I’m not at least a little worried about how his 2009 ended. Kuroda’s solid when healthy, though since he missed time in 2009 with three different maladies, you can’t count on that. Beyond that… can you really see them allowing James McDonald, Scott Elbert, and/or Charlie Haeger to fill out the rotation? There’s more than a few Dodger fans who would love to see that, of course, but the casual fan and local media would never allow it. The Dodgers have to go out and get a quality starting pitcher somehow, which means…
3) The Dodgers will have to trade for a young, cheap, quality starter. Not a Kershaw-type, of course, but a pre-free agent and preferably pre-arbitration guy who’s shown at least some success in the big leagues. Guys like that don’t come cheap, obviously, so the obvious trade bait – Juan Pierre – isn’t getting it done. As I mentioned the other day when the rumor was floated that the plan would be to trade Pierre for an equally-paid mediocre starting pitcher, it’s impossible to find a fit for him. Regardless of how you feel about his performance on the field, it’s inarguable that his salary is out of line in the current marketplace. Teams can find production equal to his for basically the minimum, so the Dodgers would have to eat nearly all of his salary to move him. They won’t do that without getting a useful piece in return, and even if that happened the guy they get back will hardly be an All-Star. No, if they’re going to get back someone useful, the Dodgers are going to have to give up a valuable piece from a position of strength, and that of course means…
4) The Dodgers still have four outfielders for three spots. The bullpen is strong, but a reliever isn’t getting you a starter. Without any prospects at the top levels to move, the obvious answer is to trade from your overcrowded outfield. Manny’s immovable regardless of whether you want to or not, and Matt Kemp’s clearly taking the steps to superstardom. So it comes down to Ethier or Pierre, and if you’re a team that’s as desperate as the Dodgers appear to be, can you really afford another year of a $10m backup outfielder in Pierre? If you can’t move Pierre for another part, and you can’t pay him to sit on the bench, then you need to make the most of his presence and turn what’s blocking him into the pitching piece you need – so that points to Ethier being the guy to go. I know how that sounds, but keep this in mind…
5) Ethier’s value is probably at the highest it will ever be. I loved watching Ethier this year. Loved him. The clutch hits, the big power, his joy in the game – I mean, just look at the picture on this card – the yoga classes, the Carne Asada outings, the “Dining With ‘Dre” blog – all of it. He’s one of my favorites, he’s one of the vaunted young core, and I don’t want to see him go. But there’s reason to believe that if you’re going to move him, now is the time. For all of his heroics this year, there’s some flaws to his game, as we pointed out in our season review. He’s kind of a lousy outfielder, his OPS actually dropped from 2008 to 2009, and he’s almost unplayable against left-handed pitching. At 28 in 2010 (two and a half years older than Kemp), and coming off of a 31-homer season, he’s likely to make $6-$7m in arbitration this year. That may not be a huge deal for some other teams, but it sure looks like it will be for the Dodgers, especially with so many arbitration cases. Besides, we’ve been hearing for a while that the Dodgers have to trade one of the arbitration guys before they go to the hearing. We’ve all assumed George Sherrill would be the most likely, but what if it’s Ethier instead? So what’s the impact if he’s traded?
6) Trading Ethier won’t create a new roster hole that you’ll need to fill (insert joke about Pierre being a black hole in the lineup here) and it would improve the rotation by acquiring… Well, here’s where it gets interesting. Who has young pitching to spare, a need for a power bat, and the willingness to take on Ethier’s arbitration case? The Giants fit that profile, but they’re certainly not trading with the Dodgers. Besides, if Ethier ended up in a Giants uniform I’d probably throw up my entire endocrine system. Here’s five options that might fit, bearing in mind that A) this is just spitballing, not a hardcore trade analysis, and B) it’d likely need to be more than a 1-for-1 trade to make it work on either side.
Boston Red Sox - Manny’s gone, Jason Bay might follow, and Ortiz/Lowell/Varitek are all declining, leaving the Sox with a need for power along with a big hole in left field. We know Sox GM Theo Epstein has had interest in Ethier before, asking for him originally in the Manny trade. Might they have interest in Ethier for 25-year-old Clay Buccholz, who’s had flashes of success in parts of three seasons (including a no-hitter) but has yet to put it all together? The Sox say they don’t want to deal him, but they do have other young arms coming up behind him, and figure to be the team that gets to take a shot on either Rich Harden or Ben Sheets. Bonus: this is Buccholz’ wife.
New York Yankees – We know the arbitration case would be of no concern to them, and while they don’t neccessarily need power, they do have a very unsettled outfield situation, unless you really consider Brett Gardner or Melky Cabrera solid options. Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui are both free agents, so it’s no surprise they’re mentioned prominently in the Bay/Matt Holliday sweepstakes. Besides, in the Little League field the Yankees just built, Ethier might put out 40 homers there. I’m not sure how realistic this is, but I’m putting this name out there anyway: Phil Hughes. He’s mostly flunked as a starter (5.22 ERA in 28 starts), but he’s been sparkling as a reliever (1.40 in 44 games). He’s still just 23, and the Yankees say they’re going to make him a starter again. His success in 2009 probably makes him untradeable from the New York side, but he’s worth including here.
Chicago White Sox – Talk about an unsettled outfield situation. The White Sox gave 210 PA to Brian Anderson (67 OPS+), 587 to Scott Podsednik (98 OPS+), 153 to DeWayne Wise (61 OPS+), and 154 to Alex Rios (36 OPS+). In addition, they’ve already said goodbye to Jermaine Dye and his 574 PA. They’re so hard up for outfielders that they just signed that fat slob Andruw Jones, and Ned Colletti and Ken Williams just worked together on the Jim Thome trade this summer. From them, I’m interested in John Danks, a lefty who will turn 25 next spring. Danks threw 200 innings of 3.77 ball last year, after throwing 195 IP in 2008, so clearly he’s a horse the Dodgers could use. The White Sox are deep in starting pitching with Jake Peavy, Mark Buehrle, Gavin Floyd, and last year’s hotshot Daniel Hudson.
Seattle Mariners – Seattle’s just dying for a power bat. Russell Branyan and his 31 homers may not return, and Adrian Beltre’s likely not coming back, which makes their top slugger 2B Jose Lopez, who might hurt the team with his poor OBP (.303) and lousy defense as much as he contributes in power. With Franklin Gutierrez in CF and Ichiro in RF, the Mariners have a big hole in LF and the ability to handle Ethier’s mediocre defense. Now, before you even say it: no, this is not about Felix Hernandez. But what about Brandon Morrow? Chosen two picks before Kershaw in the 2006 draft, Morrow’s had his development stunted a bit by the Mariners constantly jerking him between starting and relieving. Still, in parts of three seasons he has a 109 ERA+ and 9.3 K/9. Morrow’s probably not enough for Ethier, but I’ve always been a huge fan.
Atlanta Braves – Atlanta’s nearly as cash-poor as the Dodgers, so I don’t consider them likely, but I can’t ignore a team dying for a power outfield bat with starting pitching to spare. The more I look, though, the less a fit I see. They’d love to move Derek Lowe, but the Dodgers aren’t paying him $45m over the next three years, especially with how mediocre he was last year. Javier Vazquez is on the block and was outstanding last year, but he’s made his distaste for the West Coast clear. I won’t suggest Tommy Hanson, who’s basically Kershaw-level for them, but if there’s any chance at Jair Jurrjens, I’d jump at it. He’ll be just 24 this winter, and threw 215 innings of 2.60 ball last year. I’d be surprised if the Braves would be willing to move him. That said, they could stick with a rotation of Vazquez/Hanson/Lowe/Hudson/Kawakami and have an outfield of Ethier/McLouth/Heyward and be very formidable.
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So there you have it. A road map for trading one of our most popular and productive players. Like I said, it’s probably not something I would do, because the downgrade from Ethier to Pierre would be a horrendous disaster on offense, but the combination of Ethier going to arbitration and lack of options to improve the rotation make it seemingly possible. Crazy? Blasphemous? All too real? Let me hear it, or point out trade options I might have missed.
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I just hope McCourt or Colletti doesn’t read this blog. Your scenario is far too possible.
And no, I wouldn’t want to see Ethier get traded. It would hurt our offense, perhaps doing irreparable harm to it.
Comment by Shmolnick— December 2, 2009 #
We should trade Ethier for JD Drew. That way we could start the all-time most overpaid outfield ever. Ramirez, Pierre and Drew.
I realize this would kick Kemp to the pine but then again… I’m not being serious.
Now excuse me. Wendy Williams is coming on the TV.
Comment by The Ringer— December 2, 2009 #
Mike, I wonder about the possibility of moving Ethier to 1B and sending Loney away (and a top-tier minor leaguer) for the likes of Danks or Buchholz. I like that scenario a whole lot better, and believe it’s just as good a package.
Comment by bluepastor— December 2, 2009 #
Very interesting, and something I hadn’t considered. I don’t know that other teams value Loney as highly as they would Ethier, though. Or if AE could play 1B.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— December 2, 2009 #
What top tier minor leaguers? Most of our top tier minor leaguers are either already with the big club or a couple of years away and slated to replace existing pieces. Lambo for Manny or Loney, D Gordon for Raffy, Withrow/Martin/Miller for Kuroda and 4/5 pitching holes. Who else is there? Robinson/Van Slyke? Not proven outside of the Cal league. This ownership has not invested in the minor league system. They have instead chosen to skate on the work of the prior gms, supplemented by the shrewd draft picks of Logan White (Kershaw, Miller, Gordon) which occasionally were signed within slot. This team is on the verge of a major implosion.
Comment by marty— December 2, 2009 #
Sadly this make sense. I guess if Frank wants this to be a small market team we have to treat it as such. This sucks we are one or two players away from making it to the world series and this baloney happens. Frank needs to sell the team.
Comment by Gillbert— December 2, 2009 #
I have to jump in here, I have been a Dodger fan my entire life and I’ve watched management make awful trading decisions year after heartbreaking year. Dre produced with authority this year and it would be just plain stupid to trade him. For a pitcher that may or may not produce.. Jason Schmidt anyone?? This team needs to nurture the guys we have, get rid of Ramirez and call it good. You wanna talk unproductive?? take a look at left. My heart just broke a little and I really hope this does not happen..
Comment by Joanna Casey— December 2, 2009 #
I don’t want to see Ethier gone either, but just because Schmidt was a disaster doesn’t mean it’s fair to expect every other pitcher who comes to LA to be a failure too.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— December 2, 2009 #
Trading Either, sadly, recognizes the new reality but I don’t think the Dodgers can afford to take the hit on offense. One can feel comfortable that Kemp will increase his production but beyond that basically it’s questionable whether anybody on offense can equal the production from last year (including Andre). I’ll grant you that if Manny can get back on track the offense could survive without Either but age isn’t on his side to do that. How many games do the Dodgers regress last year if Either’s production is replaced with Juan’s.
I am comfortable that we can fill out the 4-5 spots in the rotation and not lose 2 out of 3 every time the slot comes up. It doesn’t take much to be serviceable number 5 starter. Stultz & Haeger are perfect for that slot. They throw lots of innings and keep you in the game…most of the time. Further the Dodger’s still have pitchers with higher ceilings who need a chance to sink or swim. Let’s see what McDonald and Elbert have.
Obviously it’s not ideal but a good to solid starter (which is about all one can realistically get in this trade centered market) is only marginally better then the warm bodies we can throw out already. That benefit doesn’t make up for the loss in production in my mind that is likely to slump further from last year.
I’ll just throw this out. To me the McCourt tenure has been pretty successful thus far and I was nowhere near as down on them as most people…right up until yesterday.
Comment by DWH— December 2, 2009 #
I think most of you are way too optimistic. The clowns who own this team cannot afford it. It is/was leveraged to eternity to finance the McClowns lifestyle and with the divorce the team is about to be blown sky high. They don’t want any more costs. There is 47 mil sunk into Manny/JP/Raffy/Kuroda/Blake. Another 13 mil goes to the criminal and others in deferred/buyouts. I think they are looking to get payroll into the 80 mil range which means that some combo of Martin, Loney, Kuo, Sherrill, or God forbid Ethier/Kemp will be gone by spring training and replaced in-house. I would not be shocked to see an outfield of Manny/Pierre/Kemp, X Paul as the 4th outfielder, an infield w Dewitt and a rotation w both James Mac and Elbert. Pissed, yes. Shocked, no. The refusal to offer arbitration had little to do with the players involved. I don’t think the Dodgers expected O-dog or Wolf to Reup. They wanted to avoid the possibility of 4 extra draft picks and the bonuses that come with them.
Comment by marty— December 2, 2009 #
Marty, all we have left is the isms, pessimism and optimism. Pessimism is easy – just look at the clown who owns this team. He would make Santa Claus pessimistic. Optimism is definitely harder. I can say that we can be optimistic because the Giants have no hitting save Sandoval, the Rockies have Jim Tracy, the Snakes have AJ Hinch (look up brown-noser, you will find his picture with his lips attached to Josh Byrnes ass) and the Padres are even more broke ass than the Dodgers.
Of course, optimism ends there – we are not built to win it all and the broke assclown who owns this team is spending most of his day trying to figure out how he can put a little league team on the field and still draw three million paying fans.
Comment by grabarkewitz— December 2, 2009 #
I like the idea of trading Ethier. No question he’s at his peak trade value.
Comment by Josh Fisher— December 2, 2009 #
Mike, the thought of trading Ethier really pissed me off, but reality has a funny way of making the mind think clearer. An $80 million payroll is very likely for this team and we have to cut something. Ethier, Martin and Loney are the three most likely to face the blade.
The first thought was the Red Sox and their need for a left fielder and a first baseman (if only to justify jettisoning Mike Lowell). Knowing that Frank is a broke assclown, I am good (if good means only mildly running amok with an axe) with the idea of Buchholz and Lars Anderson for Loney and Ethier. We pare about $10 million off of the payroll and buy some more arbitration years.
As for Martin, I am guessing that his arb number will be in the $5 million + range, so dealing him to the Jays for Brad Snider and one of their young arms and then sending Snider and said arm to the White Sox for Tyler Flowers would work on cutting some more payroll. Yeah, it has flaws and it would require some of out of the box thinking – not Ned’s strong suit, but it is better than the hill of magic beans will likely get for Ethier if we deal him elsewhere.
Comment by grabarkewitz— December 2, 2009 #
In an ideal world, you hold on to Ethier and Kemp until they’re old and broken and ready to DH. I think both of these guys can produce in a major way for a long time. No one predicted Ethier to get to where he is today, and I believe he is not quite at his peak.
That said, if you could get Jurjjens I say go for it, because pitchers like that are harder to find than corner OF. He has a track record the others on your list do not with the exception of Danks. Any of them would potentially give the Dodgers a new “Big 3″.
Comment by Ted— December 2, 2009 #
No mention of Edwin Jackson? I thought up of a bigger deal though that would help us both out.
Pierre, Ethier, McDonald, and Loney for Jackson, Guillen, Granderson, and Willis.
Guillen plays first. Granderson mans center. Jackson finds a nice new cozy home in the rotation and Willis can breathe some fresh air in LA to get his head straight…
seems a bit unlikely simply because the Dodgers would be taking on almost 30 million (2010) while Detroit would only take on 17-18 million. AND Willis is all but done in the majors. AND the Dodgers still have a hole to fill at second, because I still dont think that Colletti is comfortable giving the full time gig to Dewitt. I can almost guarantee he will sign some crafty “veteran” and Torre will start him 3 months too long before finally putting in Dewitt full time just to see him flourish!
Comment by Dusto— December 3, 2009 #
whats the possibility of him signing to the D-backs since he has a home out there…oh man sorry just got the Shawn Green flash back shakes
Comment by johnny— December 3, 2009 #
I was so close to strangling you. :o
Comment by kensai— December 4, 2009 #
I have flirted with the idea of trading Ethier this off-season as well, and I do like some of the names mentioned.
ATL: RH Jair Jurrjens
CWS: LH John Danks (though the CWS also have his lil’ bro in system)
BOS: RH Clay Buccholz (and wife) though I would try to get the switch hitting Lowrie as part of the deal as well. He could be a good 2B option, or at the very least a nice back up at 2B, SS and 3B.
The team that came to mind for me was the Royals. They have one top bat in 1B/DH Billy Butler, with no one to protect him, have solid pitching prospects coming up through the system (LH Dwyer, RH Melville, LH Duffy, LH Montgomery, RH Crow) and have been recent trading partners with the Dodgers. We also have been linked to them in this off-season’s rumor mill (Callaspo for Ellis), and have a few solid prospects with local ties to their team (LH Elbert, C May, IN DeWitt). I wonder what it would take to get Greinke and his reasonable contract (2010: $7.5m/2011: $13.5m/2012: $13.5m).
The only downside I saw to trading Ethier, is that the number of quality LH bats in MLB is few and far between. I guess that would help his trade value, but it would be very difficult for us to find a replacement, unless we got lucky with a rebound guy like Ankiel or Huff.
I would also add in Toronto as a possible trade partner. Not for Halladay but for a couple of young guys from the likes of LH Brett Cecil, OF Travis Snider and RH Josh Roenicke.
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On another note, I honestly wonder what the Tigers are asking for for Edwin Jackson. Many of us have said it before, but they need a closer and both Sherrill and Jackson are set to make $4- $5 million next year. Sherrill and what would be amicable.
Though a bigger deal involving big contracts (LAD: Pierre/DET: Guillen) would be interesting.
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Comment by Bluefan— December 5, 2009 #
Speaking a bit about the Royals above. If not Greinke, KF has noted that KCR might be interested in dealing Meche. Would a package that started with Pierre get it done (I’d even throw in a low amount of cash).
Say CF Juan Pierre + C AJ Ellis + $3.5m (10: $2.5m/11: $1.0m).
That would give the Royals a CF/Leadoff Hitter, plus a catcher we know they like and a 2010 savings of ~ $4-$5m.
We would get rid of Pierre and replace him on the roster with a league minimum guy (Paul or Hoffman) and replace Wolf’s spot in the rotation with Meche at the same salary difference of $4-$5m that was mentioned above. I doubt we could sign a better FA starter this off-season for less.
Would this be enough to entice the Royals?
Comment by Bluefan— December 5, 2009 #
are you guys crazy!
Andre Ethier helped us big last year, he hasnt
even peaked fully yet, and your idea is to trade him?
haha. get rid of Manny and we’ll have plenty of money.
we already got rid of Wolf and Pierre so why need to worry?
next up….Mcdonald, Broxton, Sherril?, Trons.
I Dont know, but trading Ethier would be a HUGE mistake!!!!!!!!!
Comment by dodgerluv65— January 5, 2010 #
I didn’t say I wanted to trade him, just that with the current state of the Dodgers financially, that it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if they tried to trade him while he’s at his highest value.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— January 6, 2010 #