2009 December « Mike Scioscia's tragic illness

Desperately Looking For That Silver Lining

December 9, 2009 at 10:13 am | Posted in Charlie Haeger, James McDonald, Josh Lindblom, Ramon Troncoso, Scott Elbert | 6 Comments

It’s been very negative around here lately, no? “The McCourts are a joke.” “The Dodgers are poor.” “While other teams go after John Lackey and Chone Figgins, the only Dodger rumors are for broken-down replacement players like Kameron Loe, Nick Green, and Alfredo Amezaga.”

Clearly, these are not the best of times for Dodger fans, and there’s the strong possibility that it only gets worse from here. But if you squint hard enough and put your hands in your ears, there’s a possibility that there may be one good thing coming out of this, and it’s not just watching the Diamondbacks make silly trades that give them a more expensive, less talented team. It’s thanks to comments that Ned Colletti made to various reporters (helpfully collected at Dodger Thoughts):

From a personnel standpoint, I’d say the main Dodgers news of the day was Ned Colletti telling reporters that he thinks one of the two vacancies in the starting rotation can be filled by one of the in-house candidates, including James McDonald, Scott Elbert, Josh Lindblom, Charlie Haeger and Ramon Troncoso. (Yes, a long reliever could potentially be converted into a starting pitcher.) Details can be found with Dylan Hernandez of The Times and Ken Gurnick of MLB.com.

Bear with me here, because this isn’t exactly the same kind of excitement that goes with acquiring Curtis Granderson or trying to trade for Roy Halladay, and it’s also very possible – if not extremely likely – that Colletti is just indulging in some gamesmanship by trying to position himself as not desperately needing several starters.

Still, for how many years have we been dying to see young players rather than veterans? You might say that a large part of the Dodger core last season was homegrown prospects, and you’d be right. Remember, though, those guys for the most part either were successful immediately upon reaching the bigs (Billingsley, Martin) or had to wait until less-talented older players got out of their way (Ethier, Loney).

So think about the possibilities here. We’ve been supporting giving Charlie Haeger a role constantly. We were dying for James McDonald to get the #5 job out of spring training last year. There’s a dozen teams that would fall all over themselves to give an arm like Scott Elbert a shot. Josh Lindblom was the surprise of the spring last year, and Ramon Troncoso was a stalwart of the big league bullpen. It’s not as though there’s not talent here.

Depending on who else is signed/acquired and which of this group really does get a chance, you could be seeing a Dodger rotation that is 80% under-30, with the potential for 100% when Hiroki Kuroda gets hurt again. It might not be the recipe for a championship in 2010, but it sure is better than watching Josh Fogg, Kris Benson, or Noah Lowry.

Geez, At Least Nick Green is Ambulatory

December 7, 2009 at 2:16 pm | Posted in Alfredo Amezaga | 10 Comments

I know they’re “just rumors”, but it’s like they’re trying to come up with the worst possible infield options here. First it was 35-year-old Jamey Carroll, who’s at least not without his virtues. Then it was 31-year-old Nick Green, who can’t really hit and isn’t a big asset with the glove. What horror awaits us today?

The Dodgers are inquiring on Marlins utility man Alfredo Amezaga, tweets MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro. Amezaga, 32 in January, missed most of the season due to a knee injury that eventually required microfracture surgery. He’s one of the Marlins’ 11 arbitration-eligible players and shouldn’t cost much to acquire.

Oh, good lord. What, going after any old 32-year-old who can’t hit isn’t enough, we need to find one who’s coming off major experimental knee surgery? To say that Amezaga isn’t an offensive threat is understating the situation; in parts of 8 seasons spanning nearly 1500 PA, his line is a sparkling .251/.311/.341. Do we really think Chin-Lung Hu couldn’t put up that line in the bigs?

I’ll grant that Amezaga is a pretty good fielder, as FanGraphs has him with positive values at CF, SS, and 2B. That doesn’t change the fact that he’s 32 and coming off major experimental knee surgery. Plus, he’s not even a free agent – while the price wouldn’t be high, you still have to give the Marlins something to acquire him and then you’d have to put him through arbitration.

I’m clearly against the idea of acquiring Amezaga, but don’t take this to mean that I’m killing the Dodger front office here. Hamstrung as they are by the McCourt debacle, they have to take some unique measures this offseason, turn over every stone, and I get that. Due diligence, and all that. But let’s just be grateful that most of these rumors never come true.

Nick Green Is Not the Answer

December 7, 2009 at 8:55 am | Posted in Chin-Lung Hu, Nick Green | 6 Comments

(Note #1: yes, I know these are just rumors. I don’t want to have to write that on every blog post. But what’s the point of having a blog dedicated to one team if I can’t comment on each little rumor that comes down?)

(Note #2: there’s going to be a ton of Dodger-related rumors coming out over the next few days as the winter meetings reign. I won’t be writing up ALL of them here, but they will all get mentioned on the MSTI Twitter. Follow today!

Unless the question is, “I’ll take over-30, poor-hitting, mediocre-fielding backup infielders for $800,000, Alex!” From the Twitter of Yahoo’s Tim Brown:

Dodgers met with agent for infielder Nick Green, exploring backup possibilities.

I hope that means they’re exploring possibilities for backup infielder, and not backup possibilities to not getting Nick Green, because I assume that would be some sort of amputee situation.

If you don’t know much about Green, that’s because you shouldn’t. This is a guy who is 31 and has played for five teams in parts of five seasons, almost entirely as a backup. In 2009, he was pressed into service as Boston’s starting shortstop for nearly half the season thanks to a multitude of injuries, and responded with a pretty bad .236/.303/.366 line. That’s not even a case of a guy being exposed due to too much playing time; that mirrors exactly his career line of .239/.307/.352. Even in over 3000 PA appearances in the minors, his OBP is just .324. “Getting on base” is clearly not Nick Green’s strength, no matter where he plays.

“But hey,” you might say. “He’s a shortstop, so if he really can’t hit, he must be a whiz with the glove, right?” You’d say that, and you’d be wrong. For his entire career, he’s a whopping 0.6 fielding runs above average. That’s not horrible, but nor is it an asset.

So please, enlighten me. When you’re trying to come up with backup infielders, paying Nick Green more than you’d have to pay Chin-Lung Hu to be 5 years older, a far inferior fielder, and a likely inferior batter (Hu at least has a .342 OBP in the minors, and at his age still has time to improve) makes sense in what way exactly?

Now Here’s A Trade Rumor I Can Get Behind

December 7, 2009 at 7:59 am | Posted in Carlos Silva, Gil Meche, Jeff Suppan, Juan Pierre sucks, Kyle Lohse | 1 Comment

MLBTR with news that should be glorious but is probably just going to lead to crushed expectations:

Steve Henson of Yahoo! Sports says that three or four teams are interested in Juan Pierre, and that a three-team trade is being explored to bring a bad contract starter to the Dodgers in return. Henson says the bad contract starter wouldn’t be ex-Dodger Derek Lowe.

The 32-year-old Pierre is still owed $18.5MM over the next two years, however he boosted his value a bit by hitting .308/.365/.392 with 30 steals in 2009. It was his best offensive season since 2004, and the second best of his career. UZR/150 pegged Pierre as excellent in LF (+16.4) but awful in center (-19.4).

Three or four teams? Get the hell out. The “three-team trade” is what is really the new wrinkle here; when I said a few weeks ago that I didn’t see a fit to trade Pierre for a bad contract starter, it was because there were so few teams that had such a pitcher and didn’t mind taking a guy like Pierre. Expanding the deal to three teams really opens up some possibilities.

So who are we looking at? MLBTR speculates on a trio of hurt and ineffective Tigers: Jeremy Bonderman ($12.5m in 2010, 81.2 IP the last two years), Nate Robertson ($10m in 2010, hasn’t allowed less than a hit per inning since 2006), and Dontrelle Willis ($12m in 2010, 57.2 IP the last two years). Holy hell, have the Tigers made some poor pitching decisions.

But I don’t see any of those guys being viable options, because you can’t count on a single one of them to give you anything in 2010. No matter how you feel about Pierre, it’s clear that the Dodgers do place a decent amount of value on him as a speedy caddy for Manny, and though we all know Pierre’s not bringing back an All-Star, they’re also not going to give him away for zero on-the-field return at all.

So here’s a quick list of the possibilities for the pitcher (ignoring how the three-team aspect might work for now), looking at both the hilarious ones brought up by MLBTR commentors and a few of my own.

Jeff Suppan. Mentioned in the original MLBTR post, but I don’t even need to look up his stats and salary because it’s pointless. The Brewers are probably the only team that’s more desperate for starters than the Dodgers are, and they just traded for a younger, cheaper, better-fielding version of Pierre in Carlos Gomez to play CF. Pierre’s certainly not displacing Ryan Braun in LF, so there’s no fit here. No.

Carlos Silva. Mentioned in the comments, I’ll admit that he came to mind to me as an overpaid horrible starter, as well. But there’s no fit here, either. Silva is awful (no, really, he’s unpitchable. ERA’s north of 5.90 three of the last four years? Wow), so the Dodgers wouldn’t enter into a deal with three, thirty, or three hundred teams that ended up with them getting him. Even if it wasn’t a three-teamer, with the M’s about to sign Chone Figgins, they have less need for a speed type like Pierre. No.

Gil Meche. Now, this one might have some legs. After two surprisingly effective years in Kansas City, Meche was hurt and lousy last year (5.09 ERA, 1.566 WHIP). He does have $24m left over the next two years, so the Dodgers would have to add a bit more payroll, potentially a problem. If this one’s not a three-teamer, well, the Royals have a mess of an outfield, so there’s room for him, and their GM Dayton Moore has a long history of ridiculous decisions. Mostly, I just want to see Rany Jazayerli‘s head explode if he had to suffer through both Pierre and Yuniesky Betancourt on the field at the same time. Perhaps.

Oliver Perez. Probably the most talented name we’ll bring up, but also the most inconsistent. He’s been so bad with the Mets that you can’t even depend on him being available in 2010, and he’s got $24m left over two years. Besides, Omar Minaya would have to admit the free agent deal he signed Perez to last year was a huge mistake. No chance.

Aaron Harang/Bronson Arroyo. We’ve heard these Cincinnati names pop up time and again, and I’ve never really seen a fit. I’d be happy to get either for Pierre, since both have been roughly league-average in a tough park. But that’s the problem – both have been roughly league-average in a tough park. The Reds won’t give either up for peanuts, and they certainly don’t need Pierre, so here’s where the three-team aspect is crucial. It’s foolish to try to even guess how a three-team trade might work out, but if Colletti can turn a 4th outfielder into either one of these guys, he deserves a golden statue. Maybe, but doubtful.

Kyle Lohse. Fun fact: I actually advocated that the Dodgers sign Lohse when he was still available for peanuts in March of 2008. They didn’t, and he went to St. Louis where he had a very nice 15-6, 3.78 season, which got him a massively overpaid 4-year deal. He was hurt and less effective in 2009, putting up a 4.74 ERA, though his peripherals didn’t change all that much. The biggest issue here is that he’s still got 3 years and about $34m left, so the Cardinals would have to eat a hefty bit of that. Probably not.

As you can see, there’s no simple answer here. There’s options, but none without huge question marks – and that’s even without including the complication of a third team. Regardless of your feelings about Pierre, it’s clear that the Dodgers cannot afford a $10m backup outfielder, so you’d love to see something happen. Now, can Ned pull it off? Sometimes the winter is the best part of the baseball season.

Are the Dodgers Unhappy With Casey Blake?

December 6, 2009 at 11:35 am | Posted in Casey Blake | 8 Comments

I’ve had my share of issues with him, to be sure, he had a bad power slump in the second half of 2009, and he was horrific in the playoffs (particularly the NLCS). Still, his line of .280/.363/.468 with surprisingly improved defense was pretty solid, and since the Dodgers already don’t have the means to fill their other holes, I was suprised to read this in Baseball Prospectus’ Winter Meetings preview:

Dodgers: They are basically paralyzed by owner Frank McCourt’s divorce, not knowing what effect it might have on their 2010 payroll. The Dodgers would like a more potent third baseman than Casey Blake, and a mid-rotation starter, but the don’t have anyone they can afford to give up beyond outfielder Jose Pierre [sic], who is drawing minimal interest.

That’s the first I’ve read anywhere about the possibility of looking for a new 3B. Placido Polanco’s already signed with Philadelphia and Chone Figgins is all but signed with Seattle; beyond them, the FA 3B group includes guys like Adrian Beltre, Mark DeRosa, Joe Crede, and Troy Glaus. They’re not without their uses, but none who are immediately obvious upgrades over Blake (depending on how Beltre’s bat bounces back to go with his outstanding glove, I suppose.)

I’ve been advocating pretty much since day one that Blake’s appropriate role really ought to be as a power bat off the bench who can play all four corners, providing some flexibility. But with the rotation and second base being much larger holes, I can’t see any moves happening this offseason with Blake. Thoughts?

Time to Love New Mexico, Justin Miller and Prentice Redman

December 4, 2009 at 6:07 pm | Posted in Claudio Vargas, Justin Miller, Prentice Redman, Vinny Rottino | 3 Comments

If you haven’t heard, the Dodgers signed righty reliever Justin Miller to a minor-league contract today. You’re probably thinking that I’ll be frustrated with this, as I have been with the rumors of the last few days. I mean, all of the signs are there, right? Signing an over-30 reliever with increasingly mediocre performances – and who is yet another ex-Giant, no less – is exactly the sort of thing I should hate.

But I don’t hate this. No, it’s not because Justin Miller is any good. If he’s good at anything, it’s being a poster child for how ERA (especially for relievers) can be unreliable. I guarantee that there’s Dodger fans out there who read about this signing, saw his 3.18 ERA, and think he’s a stud. Nothing could be further from the truth, of course. After spending 2006 in Japan, Miller’s pitched in at least 44 games in each of the last three seasons, the first two with Florida. How’d that work out? Well, there’s been a declining strikeout rate each year (10.8->8.3->5.7), an increasing walk rate (3.5->3.9->4.3), and an increasing homer rate (0.7->0.8->1.1). That nice ERA in 2009 was largely due to luck, since his BABIP was a far-below-average .227. Put that all together, and his FIP was 4.91, which sounds a whole lot more like it should be.

Still, as I said, I don’t hate this. Yeah, he’s not any good, but it’s encouraging to see that guys like this aren’t being evaluated strictly on misleading ERA’s anymore. And it’s a minor league deal, so how can I complain? With bullpen turnover so high from year to year, it’s smart to pile as many arms like this as you can in the minors. Besides, Vin Scully loves talking about Miller’s crazy tattoos whenever he’s faced the Dodgers in the past, so it’s hard to not want to root to hear that on a more regular basis.

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From that same article, the Dodgers also signed Prentice Redman. Now, you’re probably asking the same question I am, and that’s “who the hell is Prentice Redman?” My first thought was that maybe it was former Pirates OF Tike Redman, and it turns out I was close – they’re brothers.

Prentice is 30 and his major league career consists of 3 hits in 27 plate appearances with the 2003 Mets. He did manage to get on the board with a homer among those 3 hits, and who was it against? Jose Mesa. Of course it was.

Since then, he’s bounced around between AA and AAA in the Mets, Nationals, Cardinals, and Mariners organizations without getting a sniff of the bigs. The minor league stats are impressive, though. In 2008 he hit 25 homers with a .920 OPS split between Seattle’s AA and AAA clubs; in 2009 it was 21 homers with a .900 OPS in AAA. Is he worth giving playing time to ahead of Xavier Paul if you need another outfielder in the bigs? Probably not, but if he can put up numbers like that in Tacoma, you can expect him to put up huge numbers in Albuquerque. On a minor-league deal, another fine signing.

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Not to harp on something that probably wasn’t a big deal in the first place, but Vinny Rottino signed with the Marlins today. You may remember that he’s who Claudio Vargas was traded for in July, which I thought was stupid at the time. It didn’t get any smarter by the time of our off-season reviews:

Vargas went to Milwaukee and continued to excel (1.78 ERA, .530 OPS against), Rottino went to Chattanooga, never to be heard from, and I still can’t find a good reason for any of it.

In exchange for Vargas, the Dodgers got a total return of 89 AA plate appearances. Because somehow that’s a fair trade.

Time for Today’s March of the Dead

December 3, 2009 at 3:14 pm | Posted in Brad Ausmus, Jamey Carroll, Luis Ayala | 11 Comments

I know these are just rumors, and I know that in any other year I’d see them for the low-risk/low-reward inquiries they truly are. Hell, with the track record the Dodgers have with guys like this, it should almost be seen as a good thing. But the timing here is horrible because of the arbitration decisions and the McCourt “crying poor” report, and as we all know, the scary part about this year is that the Noah Lowrys and Kameron Loes of the world might actually be the biggest presents under the Christmas tree. It doesn’t get any better today, because now we’re hearing about Dodger interest in three more members of the walking dead. Let’s start off with another failed pitcher:

Luis Ayala was DFA’d or released three times in 2009, don’t forget. Yet somehow, that’s still an upgrade over Lowry or Loe. From Dylan Hernandez’ Twitter:

Source: Dodgers in discussions with right-hander Luis Ayala about a minor-league deal.

Fine, fine. A minor league deal is actually a smart move, so fine. Still, Ayala’s been on four teams in the last two years, with a history of personal problems that make Vicente Padilla look like a boy scout. I mean, the litany here is amazing.

In 2008, after getting put on waivers by the Nats (!!!) with a 5.77 ERA, Ayala was traded to the Mets for a player to be named. Why?

Ayala requested the trade weeks ago because he wanted a change of scenery. He said that he lost focus because of personal problems off the field, which included having a divorce and getting shot in his left arm this past offseason. He said that those were the reasons why he was testy toward the local media during the first half of the season.

Ayala was lousy for the Mets (5.50 ERA) and signed with the Twins for 2009. After being mediocre with them (4.18 ERA), he was DFA’d in June, with manager Ron Gardenhire having this to say:

“He wanted an eighth-inning role; that’s why he signed over here. He wasn’t pitching well enough to be an eighth-inning guy. So there you have it.

“His thoughts were if we gave him the ball in that eighth inning, he’d be able to do the job. My thoughts are if you’re not getting them out, you’re not going to pitch in the eighth inning. We’re trying to win. So there’s your difference.

“When you walk into my office and tell me you don’t like your role, and he talked about his contract for next year — you lose me right there. I don’t deal with that. We’re talking about winning now. That’s why he’s out the door and another guy’s in there to pitch. And it’s not because he’s a bad guy. His theories are a little different.”

Sounds like a winner to me! But wait, it gets better. He was picked up by Florida, putting up a horrendous 11.74 ERA in 10 appearances. When they DFA’d him as well, whose fault was it? Not Ayala’s:

“It was terrible what they did,” Ayala said. “I don’t know why they called me up if they were going to do this. I think it’s a lack of respect. I know it’s a business, but for me, it’s something they’ve handled poorly.”

Again, it’s a minor-league deal, so: fine. But good lord, this guy seems like kryptonite to me. Do not want.

Brad Ausmus is not worth fighting over. From MLBTR:

Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of FoxSports.com report that the Dodgers and Giants are among the teams pursuing free agent catcher Brad Ausmus. Peter Mrowka, Ausmus’ agent, said it’s “possible” but “not likely” that his client will play for a team not based on the West Coast next year.

I don’t mind Ausmus, really. I think you could do better pretty easily than a guy who will be 41 next year and has been an awful hitter his entire life, but he’s not really going to make or break anyone’s season. Still, when you’re pinching pennies the way the Dodgers are, I do have to question the value of giving $1m or more to a backup catcher who will produce less than a minor leaguer could for the minimum.

Why do the Dodgers love Jamey Carroll so much? We’ve been hearing his name floated in Dodger rumors since back in 2008, when the idea of a trade for C.C. Sabathia, Casey Blake, and Carroll came up. Well, it’s happening again…

There’s no shortage of interest in Jamey Carroll this year. Ed Price of AOL FanHouse reports that the Red Sox, Angels, Dodgers, A’s, Rangers, Pirates, Reds and Indians all have interest in the 35-year-old utility man. We know the Marlins are interested, too.

Carroll hit .276/.355/.340 with the Indians last year, spending most of his time at second and third, and playing some outfield as well. UZR/150 suggests Carroll has been an above-average defender at second base over the course of the last five years.

Look at the other teams involved, though. All have their second base positions totally settled, meaning they’d want Carroll to do what he’s supposed to be doing – being a nice utility glove who can get on base. With the Dodgers, he’s likely the new starting 2B, which is scary indeed.

The Hits Just Keep on Coming

December 2, 2009 at 4:12 pm | Posted in Kameron Loe | 10 Comments

What, you thought hearing about interest in the “just missed two years” corpse of Noah Lowry was going to be the topper of this amazingly horrible 24 hours? Boy, were you wrong. To what depths of pitching dispair are we sinking to next? Yep: it’s guys who weren’t even big in Japan.

Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette has the scoop on righty Kameron Loe, who spent the year in Japan and is apparently contemplating a return. Back in November of ’08 the Rangers sold Loe’s rights to the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks, who paid him $900K. He pitched only 27 innings, posting a 6.33 ERA. Kovacevic names the Pirates, Dodgers, Braves, and A’s as teams interested in Loe.

Who wouldn’t want a guy with an outstanding 4.7 K/9 ratio and 1.516 WHIP in parts of 5 big league seasons? Well, Japan, apparently. What’s weirder: that a guy who once had the skill to make the bigs could flunk so hard in Japan, or that he actually has multiple big league teams interested in him?

All I can come up with on this one is that the McCourts are hoping Dodger fans are dumb enough to think this is actually Derek Lowe.

This Is the New Reality

December 2, 2009 at 1:23 pm | Posted in Noah Lowry | 11 Comments

Believe me when I say I’m not happy to be putting out all of these negative posts lately, but I can only call them as I see them. And what better way to follow up a day in which the Dodgers proved themselves to completely incapable of spending to compete next year? Why, going after a pitcher who hasn’t pitched in over two years, of course. From ESPN Rumor Central (via the Twitter of TBLA):

The Los Angeles Dodgers are considering free agent Noah Lowry as a possible back-end-of-the-rotation option, reports ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick.

Lowry, 29, hasn’t pitched since August 2007 because of a rib injury, but the Dodgers have a connection to him. GM Ned Colletti and Dodgers trainer Stan Conte were both in San Francisco in 2005 when Lowry pitched 204 innings and won 13 games for the Giants.

The Dodgers’ ownership situation is unsettled as Frank and Jamie McCourt go through a divorce, and the team declined to offer salary arbitration to pitcher Randy Wolf and six other free agents. Lowry, a Southern California native, could have some appeal to the Dodgers because he’s likely to sign a short-term contract with a low base salary and lots of incentives.

San Diego, Pittsburgh, Oakland, Seattle and Cincinnati are among the other clubs believed to have an interest in Lowry.

Yep, other teams compete for Roy Halladay and John Lackey; the Dodgers go after a guy who’s just missed two seasons and accused the Giants of misdiagnosing his injuries.

Hey, what’s more depressing here: that the latest Dodger pitching target walked 5 per 9 way back in 2007 when he could pitch while striking out that same 5 per 9 stat… or that the level to which the Dodgers have sunk means that they’re fighting with the likes of “San Diego, Pittsburgh, Oakland, Seattle and Cincinnati.”

But hey, at least going after an injury-prone pitcher of whom the sentence “Dodgers have a connection to him. GM Ned Colletti and Dodgers trainer Stan Conte were both in San Francisco” applies to has never failed us before, right? Right?

How Do We Feel About Moving Andre Ethier?

December 2, 2009 at 7:48 am | Posted in Andre Ethier, Brandon Morrow, Clay Buccholz, Jair Jurrjens, John Danks, Phil Hughes | 21 Comments

I know, I know. It’s basically blasphemy to even bring it up, what with his huge step forward last season to be the first Dodger 30-homer hitter since 2004, string of amazing walkoffs, and obvious appeal to the female and non-traditional male fanbase.

I’m not suggesting this is what I would do or that this is what they will do, necessarily. It’s just that with the events of yesterday’s shocking lack of arbitration offers shedding more light on just how dire the Dodger financial situation may be, it’s not a stretch to see this series of events happen. Hear me out on this…

1) The Dodgers are not going to be able to sign or trade for a stud veteran pitcher. Roy Halladay and his $15.75m in 2010 plus the extension you’d need to sign him to? Out, even if you could strike a deal with Toronto. John Lackey and the $80-$100m deal he figures to sign? No chance. This is a team that was too afraid of the 1% chance that Randy Wolf would return for $8m or so to collect the two draft picks; you really think they’re going to be able to go out and afford any quality pitcher? Hell no. So you’re looking at what, guys like Jose Contreras, Kip Wells, and Pedro Martinez? Bring one of them in to see if they can be this year’s miracle retread 5th starter if you must, but you can’t count on them for anything beyond that. So there’s no way a top pitcher is coming to LA who costs more than a few million. But the problem with not getting a top pitcher is…

2) The Dodgers just can’t start 2010 with Chad Billingsley, Clayton Kershaw, Hiroki Kuroda, and dreams. Kershaw’s a lock, of course, and well on the path to acedom. But after him? I’ve been the biggest Billingsley supporter of just about anyone, but even I can’t pretend I’m not at least a little worried about how his 2009 ended. Kuroda’s solid when healthy, though since he missed time in 2009 with three different maladies, you can’t count on that. Beyond that… can you really see them allowing James McDonald, Scott Elbert, and/or Charlie Haeger to fill out the rotation? There’s more than a few Dodger fans who would love to see that, of course, but the casual fan and local media would never allow it. The Dodgers have to go out and get a quality starting pitcher somehow, which means…

3) The Dodgers will have to trade for a young, cheap, quality starter. Not a Kershaw-type, of course, but a pre-free agent and preferably pre-arbitration guy who’s shown at least some success in the big leagues. Guys like that don’t come cheap, obviously, so the obvious trade bait – Juan Pierre – isn’t getting it done. As I mentioned the other day when the rumor was floated that the plan would be to trade Pierre for an equally-paid mediocre starting pitcher, it’s impossible to find a fit for him. Regardless of how you feel about his performance on the field, it’s inarguable that his salary is out of line in the current marketplace. Teams can find production equal to his for basically the minimum, so the Dodgers would have to eat nearly all of his salary to move him. They won’t do that without getting a useful piece in return, and even if that happened the guy they get back will hardly be an All-Star. No, if they’re going to get back someone useful, the Dodgers are going to have to give up a valuable piece from a position of strength, and that of course means…

4) The Dodgers still have four outfielders for three spots. The bullpen is strong, but a reliever isn’t getting you a starter. Without any prospects at the top levels to move, the obvious answer is to trade from your overcrowded outfield. Manny’s immovable regardless of whether you want to or not, and Matt Kemp’s clearly taking the steps to superstardom. So it comes down to Ethier or Pierre, and if you’re a team that’s as desperate as the Dodgers appear to be, can you really afford another year of a $10m backup outfielder in Pierre? If you can’t move Pierre for another part, and you can’t pay him to sit on the bench, then you need to make the most of his presence and turn what’s blocking him into the pitching piece you need – so that points to Ethier being the guy to go. I know how that sounds, but keep this in mind…

5) Ethier’s value is probably at the highest it will ever be. I loved watching Ethier this year. Loved him. The clutch hits, the big power, his joy in the game – I mean, just look at the picture on this card – the yoga classes, the Carne Asada outings, the “Dining With ‘Dre” blog – all of it. He’s one of my favorites, he’s one of the vaunted young core, and I don’t want to see him go. But there’s reason to believe that if you’re going to move him, now is the time. For all of his heroics this year, there’s some flaws to his game, as we pointed out in our season review. He’s kind of a lousy outfielder, his OPS actually dropped from 2008 to 2009, and he’s almost unplayable against left-handed pitching. At 28 in 2010 (two and a half years older than Kemp), and coming off of a 31-homer season, he’s likely to make $6-$7m in arbitration this year. That may not be a huge deal for some other teams, but it sure looks like it will be for the Dodgers, especially with so many arbitration cases. Besides, we’ve been hearing for a while that the Dodgers have to trade one of the arbitration guys before they go to the hearing. We’ve all assumed George Sherrill would be the most likely, but what if it’s Ethier instead? So what’s the impact if he’s traded?

6) Trading Ethier won’t create a new roster hole that you’ll need to fill (insert joke about Pierre being a black hole in the lineup here) and it would improve the rotation by acquiring… Well, here’s where it gets interesting. Who has young pitching to spare, a need for a power bat, and the willingness to take on Ethier’s arbitration case? The Giants fit that profile, but they’re certainly not trading with the Dodgers. Besides, if Ethier ended up in a Giants uniform I’d probably throw up my entire endocrine system. Here’s five options that might fit, bearing in mind that A) this is just spitballing, not a hardcore trade analysis, and B) it’d likely need to be more than a 1-for-1 trade to make it work on either side.

Boston Red Sox - Manny’s gone, Jason Bay might follow, and Ortiz/Lowell/Varitek are all declining, leaving the Sox with a need for power along with a big hole in left field. We know Sox GM Theo Epstein has had interest in Ethier before, asking for him originally in the Manny trade. Might they have interest in Ethier for 25-year-old Clay Buccholz, who’s had flashes of success in parts of three seasons (including a no-hitter) but has yet to put it all together? The Sox say they don’t want to deal him, but they do have other young arms coming up behind him, and figure to be the team that gets to take a shot on either Rich Harden or Ben Sheets. Bonus: this is Buccholz’ wife.

New York Yankees – We know the arbitration case would be of no concern to them, and while they don’t neccessarily need power, they do have a very unsettled outfield situation, unless you really consider Brett Gardner or Melky Cabrera solid options. Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui are both free agents, so it’s no surprise they’re mentioned prominently in the Bay/Matt Holliday sweepstakes. Besides, in the Little League field the Yankees just built, Ethier might put out 40 homers there. I’m not sure how realistic this is, but I’m putting this name out there anyway: Phil Hughes. He’s mostly flunked as a starter (5.22 ERA in 28 starts), but he’s been sparkling as a reliever (1.40 in 44 games). He’s still just 23, and the Yankees say they’re going to make him a starter again. His success in 2009 probably makes him untradeable from the New York side, but he’s worth including here.

Chicago White Sox – Talk about an unsettled outfield situation. The White Sox gave 210 PA to Brian Anderson (67 OPS+), 587 to Scott Podsednik (98 OPS+), 153 to DeWayne Wise (61 OPS+), and 154 to Alex Rios (36 OPS+). In addition, they’ve already said goodbye to Jermaine Dye and his 574 PA. They’re so hard up for outfielders that they just signed that fat slob Andruw Jones, and Ned Colletti and Ken Williams just worked together on the Jim Thome trade this summer. From them, I’m interested in John Danks, a lefty who will turn 25 next spring. Danks threw 200 innings of 3.77 ball last year, after throwing 195 IP in 2008, so clearly he’s a horse the Dodgers could use. The White Sox are deep in starting pitching with Jake Peavy, Mark Buehrle, Gavin Floyd, and last year’s hotshot Daniel Hudson.

Seattle Mariners – Seattle’s just dying for a power bat. Russell Branyan and his 31 homers may not return, and Adrian Beltre’s likely not coming back, which makes their top slugger 2B Jose Lopez, who might hurt the team with his poor OBP (.303) and lousy defense as much as he contributes in power. With Franklin Gutierrez in CF and Ichiro in RF, the Mariners have a big hole in LF and the ability to handle Ethier’s mediocre defense. Now, before you even say it: no, this is not about Felix Hernandez. But what about Brandon Morrow? Chosen two picks before Kershaw in the 2006 draft, Morrow’s had his development stunted a bit by the Mariners constantly jerking him between starting and relieving. Still, in parts of three seasons he has a 109 ERA+ and 9.3 K/9. Morrow’s probably not enough for Ethier, but I’ve always been a huge fan.

Atlanta Braves – Atlanta’s nearly as cash-poor as the Dodgers, so I don’t consider them likely, but I can’t ignore a team dying for a power outfield bat with starting pitching to spare. The more I look, though, the less a fit I see. They’d love to move Derek Lowe, but the Dodgers aren’t paying him $45m over the next three years, especially with how mediocre he was last year. Javier Vazquez is on the block and was outstanding last year, but he’s made his distaste for the West Coast clear. I won’t suggest Tommy Hanson, who’s basically Kershaw-level for them, but if there’s any chance at Jair Jurrjens, I’d jump at it. He’ll be just 24 this winter, and threw 215 innings of 2.60 ball last year. I’d be surprised if the Braves would be willing to move him. That said, they could stick with a rotation of Vazquez/Hanson/Lowe/Hudson/Kawakami and have an outfield of Ethier/McLouth/Heyward and be very formidable.

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So there you have it. A road map for trading one of our most popular and productive players. Like I said, it’s probably not something I would do, because the downgrade from Ethier to Pierre would be a horrendous disaster on offense, but the combination of Ethier going to arbitration and lack of options to improve the rotation make it seemingly possible. Crazy? Blasphemous? All too real? Let me hear it, or point out trade options I might have missed.