Monthly Archives: December 2009

Non-Tender Saturday

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Digging in the bargain bin of the winter as the Dodgers are, the non-tender list stands to be a prime hunting ground. There’s still a few hours left for decisions to be made, so the list could get longer, but for now, here’s a look at some of the names we’ve seen so far who might interest the Dodgers.

Chien-Ming Wang, RHP
We’ve been hearing his name attached to the Dodgers for a while, thanks to his history with Joe Torre. Wang was probably never as good his career 55-26 record (along with two 19-win seasons) makes him look, since we know how pointless wins are. Still, he was pretty effective in 2005 and ’06, pitching over 400 innings in those years with ERA+ scores of 124 and 122. He started off 2008 in much the same fashion before breaking his foot in June, missing the rest of the season. He made it back in 2009 to be, well, absolutely horrible. Allowing 14.1 hits per 9 and a 9.64 ERA in 12 games isn’t going to get you anywhere except for the unemployment line or the operating table, and the latter is exactly where he went with a shoulder injury.

Wang’s unlikely to be ready to go before May or June, which will make it nearly two full years since he was last effective. Still, that means he’s not going to come close to the $5m he made in 2009, which is probably more important than any other statistic I can put out there.

Odds: Probably pretty good due to both the Yankee connection and the Dodgers’ Taiwanese crew, but his impact is probably low at best. Let’s say 5-1.

Kelly Johnson, 2B
I had a pretty decent back-and-forth with TrueBlueLA on Twitter this morning (I’ll be honest, I have no idea which TBLA member runs their Twitter), and it basically came down to two competing ideas. For my part, I looked at his declining offensive stats in each of the last three years (.831 to .795 to .692) and his subpar defense (-7.4 career UZR/150 at 2B) and kind of threw up in my mouth a little. TBLA replied, fairly, that Johnson’s .249 BABIP in 2009 was pretty poor luck and likely to rebound.

That’s a fair point, to be sure. If the Dodgers did go out and sign Johnson, my opinion would probably rest entirely on what his role is. You can’t just hand him the 2B job over Blake DeWitt after how horrible he was in 2009, and if that’s the case then you can count me as being strongly against it. Initially I felt that it would be okay if Johnson was brought in to compete with DeWitt or as part of a platoon, but that won’t really work here. Despite being a lefty batter, he’s actually been stronger against lefty pitching in his career (.808 OPS career, .968, though in just 90 plate appearances, in 2009). That may sound like a good reason to have him be one half of a keystone platoon, except that for whatever reason Blake DeWitt is a lefty with the exact same issue. DeWitt’s hit .842 against lefties, but just .682 against righties. So that wouldn’t really work.

Odds: Clearly the Dodgers have a need at 2B, but they already have a questionable fielder who hits lefties despite being lefty; no need to add another. If you’re going to add someone who can’t hit righties, he might as well be a slick fielder. 20-1.

Jonny Gomes, OF
Can we talk about the Reds for a second? What a mess over there, because you’ve got GM Walt Jocketty crying poor about payroll issues, yet he goes out and trades for broken-down Scott Rolen and his $11m salary, gives old & injured Ramon Hernandez $3m with a $3.25m option, and now non-tenders Johnny Gomes, who merely slugged .541 and hit 20 homers in just 98 games.

Gomes really only does that one thing – hit for power – but he sure does it well. Despite never getting 500 plate appearances in a season, he’s hit 17 homers four separate times. His OBP is merely okay (.330) and he’s a horrific outfielder (-22.3 UZR/150 career), but he sure can hit the hell out of the ball. If anyone actually let him play full-time, he’d be a 30-homer threat, easily. I’m not ignoring his flaws, but when Brad Ausmus was arguably your biggest power threat off the bench, it’s not hard to see that you need a lumber upgrade.

Odds: With that glove, he really needs to be in the DH league, and the Dodgers have no outfield room anyway. Besides, power like that will be in demand, so the Dodgers will be outbid. 100,000-1.

Garrett Atkins, 3B/1B
Speaking of needing power off the bench, you may remember that my solution to that in the 2010 plan was to sign Troy Glaus as a corner infielder and power bat. If Glaus is either not healthy or too expensive, Atkins could be a low-cost solution. Atkins, who went to high school in Irvine, seemed to be on the path to stardom after a 2006 season in which he hit 29 homers with a .965 OPS. But to say his career has gone downhill since then is a bit of an understatement. An OPS+ that was 136 in 2006 has slid to 113, 96, and then finally 66 in a horrendous 2009 in which he lost his job and was nearly demoted to the minors.

Now, if you think you can fix him, he’s worth a shot to see if you can get a jolt off the bench and some average-ish defense at 1B and 3B. The worry is that you can’t fix him, and the fact that he’s always been somewhat of a Coors Field monster (.892 at home, .735 on the road) isn’t helping either.

Odds: Just looking at the good seasons on his resume, you know some teams will sniff around. That might drive the price up, but you can never overestimate someone wanting to come back home. 25-1.

Bonus: Atkins was non-tendered today… on his 30th birthday. Happy birthday?

Scott Olsen, LHP
Like Gomes, there’s been no connection I’ve heard of between Olsen and the Dodgers, but he’s a young lefty (26 in February) with starting experience (112 starts), so you can be sure he’s on the Dodger radar. There’s some complications here, though…

He’s been hurt. Olsen missed time in 2009 with left shoulder tendonitis, returned for a few weeks, and then had surgery on his left labrum in July, though he’s expected to be ready for spring training.

He’s hardly been a stud. At 6’5″, you’d expect him to be a power lefty, but his fastball tops out around 90, with his slider being his out pitch. He’s played on some pretty bad teams in Florida and Washington, so I’ll give him a pass on his win/loss record, but his FIP is pretty close to his actual career ERA of 4.77. It’s hard to tell how he’ll come back from the labrum surgery, but again he’ll just be 26, so it’s not that long ago that he was a nicely-regarded prospect.

He’s kind of a dick. For a guy so young, he’s got quite the history. There was the time he was punched out by a teammate. Or the time he fought a different teammate. Or the time he got a DUI and tried to fight a cop. Or the time he gave Brewer fans the bird.

Odds: If he’s healthy and you can look past his personal issues, almost all of which came while with Florida, I think he’s worth a shot. He’d hardly be the first 23- or 24-year-old to do some stupid things, and getting to the other side of the country to a team with some talent might do wonders. Either way, he’s unlikely to score a big deal coming off of injury and with his history. 15-1.

Alfredo Amezaga, 2B/CF
I can’t stand the thought, and I’m only listing him because there’d been reported interest in him last week. Here’s what I said about him at the time:

Oh, good lord. What, going after any old 32-year-old who can’t hit isn’t enough, we need to find one who’s coming off major experimental knee surgery? To say that Amezaga isn’t an offensive threat is understating the situation; in parts of 8 seasons spanning nearly 1500 PA, his line is a sparkling .251/.311/.341. Do we really think Chin-Lung Hu couldn’t put up that line in the bigs? I’ll grant that Amezaga is a pretty good fielder, as FanGraphs has him with positive values at CF, SS, and 2B. That doesn’t change the fact that he’s 32 and coming off major experimental knee surgery.

At least now he’s a free agent and you don’t have to trade anything for him. I just don’t see the fit here. He’s not going to see much time in CF (especially if Juan Pierre remains), and like I said, his nice infield glove and lousy bat doesn’t do much for me over just going with Hu.

Odds: Well, they already asked about trading for him, so now that he’s free? Probably higher than I care to admit. 10-1.

Now Serving Fungible Pitcher #1837…

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…Josh Towers, come on down! Via the most low-key announcement ever:

Among lower-level free agents, three right-handers agreed to minor league contracts: Elmer Dessens(notes) with the New York Mets ($700,000 in majors, $90,000 in minors), Josh Towers(notes) with the Los Angeles Dodgers ($700,000/$100,000) and Ryan Speier(notes) with the Nationals ($425,000/$90,000).

You’d think I’d hate this, because, well, he’s not any good. In the 6 seasons in which he’s appeared in more than ten games, his ERA has been below 4.48 all of once. He was so bad in 2006 (2-10, 8.42) and 2007 (5-10, 5.38) that he was basically banished from the bigs for two full years, save for 2 token appearances with the Yankees this year. (Wait, is he getting a RING out of that? Good lord.) He’s only once allowed fewer than 10 hits per 9, and his career strikeout rate is just 4.8/9. At 33 next year, signs aren’t ripe for a turnaround.

Still, it’s just a minor-league deal, and he was at least passable in AAA in 2009 (2.74 ERA, 1.111 WHIP). It’s not going to lead to big-league success – trust me, it won’t - but it’s also not worth getting all worked up over. That is, until it turns out that he’s the big-ticket signing of the off-season who ends up starting 24 games.

Building a Team $50k at a Time

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Dylan Hernandez with more news:

Dodgers sent cash to Tampa Bay for its pick in the Rule 5 draft, LHP Armando Zerpa.

Zerpa is 22 and was taken from the Red Sox, where SoxProspects.com had this to say about him:

Scouting Report: Big strike ‘em out lefty with a history of control issues, which took five seasons in rookie ball to refine. Easy three-quarter delivery.  Fastball sits around 89 mph, and slider goes around 78 mph. Fastball has decent movement. Very good groundball splits, also some impressive stats against lefties.

Five seasons in rookie ball. A fastball that doesn’t top 90 mph. And walking 6.4 per 9 in A-ball this year. This sounds like a guy who’s going to stick on the roster all year? At least Monasterios sounds like he might have some talent, and I’m all for taking a long-shot. But two, on a guy like this?

I think Mr. Colletti’s got some ‘splainin to do.

Dodgers Buy Carlos Monasterios

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Well, at least it’s a signing right? And it even cost money! From Dylan Hernandez, who’s quickly become the go-to guy for Dodger breaking news:

The Dodgers sent cash to the Mets for their pick in the Rule 5 draft, 23-year-old RHP Carlos Monasterios.

I won’t pretend I’ve ever heard of this guy, but here’s what I do know: the Mets had drafted him from the Phillies, and Mets blog Mets Today had already put up a review of him in the 20 minutes or so he was Mets property. Here’s their take:

Monasterios is a 23-year-old righthander (will be 24 in March) from Venezuela who throws a hard sinker in the low 90s. He was acquired by the Phillies in the deal that sent Bobby Abreu to the Yankees, and has performed with mixed results since that time.

Originally a starter, he moved to the bullpen in 2009 — appearing 29 times as a reliever and making 8 starts. Of those 37 games, 35 came for Clearwater in the Florida State League (A). He pitched a total of 7 innings for AA Reading last year. He had two saves and pitched a shutout for Clearwater.

All told, his ERA last year was 3.73 over 89 IP, with 75 Ks, 29 BB, 4 HR and 79 H, for a 1.21 WHIP. You can see his complete stats here.

Hard to judge a guy based on his Single-A stats, but it looks like there’s some talent there. Enough to stick on the MLB roster all year, which he’ll need to do to remain a Dodger? We’ll see. The jump from A ball to MLB is pretty huge, but there’s very little risk involved here.

Prediction: This is Not the Last We’ll See of Jamie Hoffmann

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Some completely out of nowhere news about today’s Rule 5 draft from the New York Post:

INDIANAPOLIS — Barring a last-second trade, the Yankees plan to take outfielder Jamie Hoffman from the Dodgers as the first pick in this morning’s Rule 5 Draft, the Post has learned.

The Yankees obtained the pick earlier this week from the Nationals in exchange for Brian Bruney.

The Yanks are not often viewed as a team that can stash a player on the 25-man roster for an entire season. But for the price of $50,000, they will see if Hoffman can stick around as a reserve.

Can’t say I saw that coming. If you’re not familiar with the Rule 5 draft, minor leaguers who have been professionals for a certain number of years (varies based on age and when drafted) yet who aren’t on the 40-man roster are eligible. A player who gets selected must be kept on his new team’s active roster (or disabled list) all year, and cannot be sent to the minors. If they can’t keep him on the roster, his original team gets the chance to reclaim him.

Thanks to Hoffmann’s bizarre resigning after being DFA’d last year, he couldn’t be put back on the 40-man until May – still not sure why that was the case. Point being, now the Yankees have to keep him on their roster all season, or offer him back to the Dodgers – and that’s why we’re going to see him again.

Hey, Hoffmann’s a nice enough part. He’s an excellent defensive outfielder, which is fine. But he’s never really been anything like a top prospect. If you remember, he only got a shot in the bigs last year because Manny got suspended and both Xavier Paul (in the bigs) and Jason Repko (in the minors) got hurt.

At 25, there’s not a whole lot of projection left for him. What you see from Hoffmann is basically what you’re going to get, and that’s a nice defensive outfielder who can draw a walk, and doesn’t have a whole lot of power (a .401 SLG in your minor league career isn’t going to get you that far in the bigs).  What’s really confounding about this is that the Yankees already have two guys like that – Melky Cabrera and Brett Gardner – and either way, New York isn’t exactly the kind of place where you can stash a guy on the end of your bench all season long.

So, good for Hoffmann, I suppose, because he’ll get more of a shot to make the roster in New York than he would with the Dodgers in 2010. Kind of a confounding move from the Yankees, but five will get you ten that he gets offered back to the Dodgers at some point this year.

At which point, the major question will be… can the Dodgers afford the $25,000 it would take to get him back?

Update: the more I think about this, the worse it looks for the Dodgers. They’re still carrying Jason Repko on the 40-man until he inevitably gets non-tendered, and while the terms of Hoffmann’s resigning meant he couldn’t be on the 40-man right now, he never should have been off in the first place. Here’s what I said when he re-signed:

I didn’t mention it at the time, but his being DFA’d never made sense in the first place – it absolutely should have been Jason Repko, who’s 4 years older than Hoffmann, is being outhit by him in AAA this year (.815 OPS to .800), wasn’t rated the best defensive outfielder in the system by Baseball America (as Hoffmann was) and is almost certainly going to be an ex-Dodger after the season.

For once, this isn’t about money – just horrible asset management.

Update 2: Hey, remember about 5 minutes ago in the first update when I said “they’re still carrying Jason Repko on the 40-man until he inevitably gets non-tendered”? Turns out it wasn’t so inevitable after all. Dylan Hernandez with the news:

The Dodgers will tender contracts to all of the arbitration-eligible players under their control, GM Ned Colletti said.

You can’t possibly think of enough of Repko to go to arbitration with him, right? What in the world does he offer that Xavier Paul or Hoffmann doesn’t?