Reasons Why You Shouldn’t Be Unhappy With Vicente Padilla
January 22, 2010 at 9:46 am | Posted in Joel Pineiro, Vicente Padilla | 23 CommentsThough I was relatively upbeat about the Dodgers signing Vicente Padilla yesterday, I’ve seen a decent amount of negativity about it from Dodger fans around the internet, many upset with Ned Colletti’s comment that the team probably can’t afford another starting pitcher now. I don’t believe the Dodgers need another starter; Padilla’s a fine #4 and guys like James McDonald, Eric Stults, Scott Elbert, and Charlie Haeger are more than qualified to fight it out for #5, just like every other team does with that spot.
Still, the questions about Padilla persist. Let’s take a look at what some of the reaction has been to the signing.
But he’s not an ace!
No, no he’s not. You also don’t get aces for 1 year and $5m, and that’s not what he’s supposed to be. As we’ve been through here ad nauseum, the Dodgers were never going to get an ace. There’s just not that many available and for various reasons (not all involving money) Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee weren’t options. As we should all know by now, 2010 depends in large part on Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley. If they take that next step, the Dodgers have a shot. If they don’t, then they’re in trouble. That was going to be the case regardless of who was signed to fill out the rotation.
But he’s not Ben Sheets, and signing Padilla means we can’t afford Sheets now!
True, he’s not Ben Sheets. And I won’t lie and pretend that I wouldn’t have liked to have seen Sheets in Blue. But I’m sure you’ve seen the rumors regarding Sheets’ asking price, right? He’s supposedly looking for around $10m plus a player option. So that right there probably puts the Dodgers out of the conversation entirely, Padilla or not. It’s also a lot to pay for a guy who didn’t even pitch in 2009 and has been injured with a variety of different ailments almost constantly since 2004. If he’s healthy, Sheets is probably worth the money for a team that can afford it. The Dodgers can’t afford the money or the risk, and Padilla’s signing isn’t the reason.
But we overpaid for a guy who got cut last year! He’s not worth it!
Isn’t he? $5m may sound like a lot, but for what starting pitching is going for these days – remember, Randy Wolf just picked up six times that – $5m really isn’t a whole lot. Yes, he got cut by the Rangers last year, but that was seemingly more for his off-field misdeeds than performance issues. We all saw how talented he can be in the playoffs for the Dodgers when he’s got his head on straight. Save for a lousy 2007 season in Texas, this is a guy who’s been hovering around league-average nearly every year for a decade. Just look at his “average” season – 29 starts, 183 innings, 100 ERA+. That’s a great 4th starter, and that alone is worth $5m. Then take into account that he’s spent almost his entire career pitching in two of the toughest places to pitch in baseball, Philadelphia and Texas. So yeah, I think he’s worth it.
But the Angels just got Joel Pineiro!
I’ve seen some complaints that this happened the day after the Angels signed Joel Pineiro to a 2 year, $16m contract, and how this supposedly means that the Dodgers are being reactionary and getting an inferior pitcher compared to the Rally Monkeys. And sure, Pineiro had a very nice 2009. I just think people are completely overlooking the risk inherent in a guy who was absolutely horrible in 3 of the previous 4 years (3 years with 5+ ERA), and who is now leaving Dave Duncan to come to a talented division in the tougher league.
Padilla was markedly better between 2004-08 (4.80 ERA isn’t great, but it’s a hell of a lot better than 5.34 ERA). Even in Pineiro’s breakout 2009, he tailed off at the end of the year, putting up a 4.64 ERA once the calendar turned to August. Then, he gave up 7 hits and 4 runs in only 4 innings in his NLDS start while Padilla threw 7 scoreless in the same game. That’s worth an extra year and 3 times the money?
But he’s a psychopath!
Well, yeah. We’ve all heard the stories about head-hunting, run-ins with teammates, and accidental shootings. This is all true and worth being worried about. That said, this is why you sign guys to one-year contracts. Ideally, the motivation for the next contract is enough to keep him in line, and if it’s not, then the few million dollars he cost is hardly going to send your season down the toilet.
I’ve also seen in some places that the fact that he got swine flu last year is held against him too, but that seems like a stretch. Millions of people came down with that, including – possibly – me. Am I a pyschopath too? Wait, don’t answer that.
So now what? Are we done?!
Well, the front four in the rotation is pretty set with Kershaw, Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda, and Padilla. There’s no shortage of talent to battle for the 5th spot, and whomever loses either bolsters the bullpen or awaits their chance in AAA. (I think Eric Stults probably has the initial advantage, if only because he’s out of options and the Dodgers didn’t refuse to sell him to Japan just to lose him for nothing).
You can say, “but Kershaw’s young! Billingsley was lousy late last year! Kuroda’s old and hurt!” and you’d be right. Just remember, no matter who the Dodgers signed to their rotation, none of those three guys were getting bumped. The season depends on their performances, and that’s been the reality for some time.
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Pretty much agree all around, MSTI.
Personally, I’m really excited to see what Kershaw can do this year.
Comment by Stephen— January 22, 2010 #
I agree overall a solid signing. Sure he isn’t a magic pickup that is going to make us champs. However, he is a guy that can pitch well enough, hold down the 4 spot, and hopefully stay healthy and pitch his innings. He had no problems here last year, and though torre my not be the greatest skip he is very good at keeping a good club house.
Comment by gillbert— January 22, 2010 #
I really, really hope that come August this year, Plaschke has to again say the Dodgers don’t have an Ace, because they will have TWO – Kershaw and Billingsley.
You hit it on the head….
as those two go, so goes the team. Both have shown the ability, and as a tandem they could make folks froget about other options in a hurry. No sure thing, to be sure. But, call it Spring Training optimism, I think we have more than a decent shot.
I am hoping there is enough to spend to land a bench player who can push the younger starters a bit….Play outfield or first base, get an occasional start, and at least threaten to go Belliard for a few weeks. AND be a threat to hit one off the bench in a tight game. Not so easy to find. Xavier Nady? Probably overkill. Randy Winn? Garrett Anderson? Rocco Baldelli? I know, most likely none of the above..but I think this is where the team could take a step. Depth matters, and Jamey Carroll should not be the extent of the bench.
Comment by dsheridan88— January 22, 2010 #
I kind of like having a psychopath on the pitching staff. It helps keep the opposition honest. Drysdale and Gibson excelled at making batters nervous. Padilla helps provide an edginess to this club, which can work to its advantage.
Of course, Vincente’s got to keep the cuckoo under control, for the most part, selectively letting it leak out at opportune moments, just to keep everyone on edge. Full blown rage-aholic meltdowns, a la Milton Bradley, are not what we’re looking for.
And he is pretty darn ugly, which is actually another good trait for a pitcher: ugly has a natural scariness about it. So, when you come right down to it, Padilla really puts it all together, he’s the complete pitching package: an ugly psychopath who can throw strikes.
Comment by mk— January 22, 2010 #
Got two of them down…If I only I threw strikes, I’d be making 5 million bucks this year!
Padilla is the ugliest pitcher I ever seen with the exception of Julian Tavarez!
Comment by Mud— January 23, 2010 #
One question i do have is how his leg is healing? how long does a gun shot wound take to heal.
Comment by Gillbert— January 22, 2010 #
I guess it was just a flush wound – like a cut, basically.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— January 24, 2010 #
Nice post. I agree that it was a pretty good signing. Most of the idiot commenters on MLBTR were Cardinals fans, still sore from last year.
Comment by Dre— January 22, 2010 #
I think that Padilla finally has found a good team.
In Philadelphia the press was too hard with him, i don’t know why, even whe he was called for the NL All Star team. In Texas, a lot of shit that they talked about werent true. In LA you saw how good this guy can be when he’s focuses and the warmth of good teammates and a solid figure like Joe Torre.
You’ll see all the talent that he has, when he is in the wrigth place.
Comment by Padilla_Flotilla 1— January 23, 2010 #
You’ve got some solid points, but I can’t let you get away with the contract comparison that you’re doing with Pineiro and Wolf. Wolf is not making 6 times more than Padilla, he’s averaging LESS than 10M/year and when you factor in Padilla’s incentives, which can take the deal to $6.05M, then you’re talking about an difference of less than $4M. Obviously, it required a commitment beyond 2010 and that’s not necessarily a contract I condoned handing out, but nevertheless, saying 6 times more is very misleading.
Also, Pineiro didn’t get 3 times as much, he’s making ~$2M more per year over two years. I wouldn’t have been afraid of that contract. That would have made some sense. Also, what about after 2010, when Padilla and Kuroda come off the books and we’re looking at a rotation of Kershaw + Billingsley + ????? … that’s somewhat scary. Our financial situation better be settled by then so we can afford some SP help.
Finally, I agree that Sheets demands were ridiculous. But, there’s NO WAY he gets that. NO WAY. We waited until late-January for a bargain, why not wait another week and see if Sheets drops his price? He has very few suitors and I think it’s likely someone picks him up on the cheap. Why let Vicente Padilla force your hand?
Comment by Nick— January 23, 2010 #
Quite honestly, I think you have to look at Padilla’s contract, with 1M in incentives and 1M deferred money … and realize that McCourt’s financial situation forced Ned to compromise and lower payroll.
That’s why I don’t like the Padilla signing.
Comment by Nick— January 23, 2010 #
Ben Sheets doesn’t make it through the year without DL time, he is like the Nomar of pitchers!
Comment by Mud— January 23, 2010 #
I think the “x times” figures were based on overall guaranteed money given to the pitcher.
Comment by Justin— January 24, 2010 #
I know that it’s over more than one year for the other guys – I’m talking about guaranteed money.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— January 24, 2010 #
I only have one question, and i know you’re usually correct, but where did you come by this
” Just look at his “average” season – 29 starts, 183 innings,”
Cause the best i can come up with is 1315.4 innings pitched in the last 8 seasons, comes to 164.4, and 221 starts in those 8 years(equals almost 28 starts) which is still cool for a #4, especially with the career 4.33 era. just curious
thanks
train
Comment by bluetrain— January 25, 2010 #
BT – I took his “162 game average” from baseball-reference.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/padilvi01.shtml
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— January 25, 2010 #
I think it’s a waste of $5 million because I don’t see Padilla being an upgrade from Haeger, McDonald, Elbert, or Stults.
Comment by Johnny— January 23, 2010 #
But those guys have proven nothing. You can say that you don’t like Padilla $5m more than those guys, I guess, but I don’t see how you couldn’t like him more straight up. Besides, it’s not “Padilla vs. them” – they’re all still going to get their shots this year in the #5 slot and as injury fill ins.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— January 24, 2010 #
He may not be an upgrade skill wise, but it’s proven that he can pitch in big games. Those other guys are not veterans and have not proven themselves yet.
Comment by Dre— January 23, 2010 #
I hope Haeger wins the #5 spot… I want knuckleballs!
Comment by Mud— January 23, 2010 #
Me too!
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— January 24, 2010 #
Three of us :)
Comment by bluetrain— January 25, 2010 #
Very nice guy…You put my thots on this signing in words…
Comment by bluetrain— January 24, 2010 #