2010 March « Mike Scioscia's tragic illness

There’s Not Much Roster Intrigue Left

March 31, 2010 at 6:38 pm | Posted in Brian Barton, Carlos Monasterios | 3 Comments

I know Joe Torre and Ned Colletti are trying to play it cool with us, of course. Torre says he wants to wait until he gets back to California before he names the starting 2B and 5th starter, and he claims that he still hasn’t decided on the last relievers. It’s nice of him to say that for the sake of the remaining veterans in the final spring games, but it’s become pretty obvious what the the roster is going to look like, and it’s going to be this:

Batters (14)
Starters (8): Martin, Loney, DeWitt, Blake, Furcal, Manny, Kemp, Ethier
Bench (6): Ausmus, Carroll, Belliard, Green, Johnson, Anderson

Pitchers (11)
Starters (5): Kershaw, Billingsley, Padilla, Kuroda, Haeger
Relievers (6): Broxton, Sherrill, Troncoso, Weaver, Monasterios, Ra. Ortiz

Russell Martin played in a major league spring game today. Since that would reset his retroactive disabled list date, he seems assured of making the Opening Day roster. DeWitt hasn’t been named the winner at 2B yet, but he basically has to be. I’ve heard the thoughts from others saying that DeWitt still has minor league options, yet he did nothing but impress this spring. There’s no way he doesn’t get the job. I hate, hate, hate the idea of Nick Green making this club, because A) I’d rather have held on to Eric Stults as the 12th pitcher for a few weeks and B) there’s nothing Green can do that Chin-Lung Hu can’t, but that decision seems to have been made. (Temporarily, at least, since the pitching staff will almost surely swell to 12 when Ronald Belisario and/or Hong-Chih Kuo are ready to return).

On the pitching side, the first four starters are obvious and Haeger looks to have locked up the #5 job, especially with Stults gone. Beyond the solid top three in the pen, Ken Gurnick reported that Jeff Weaver is on the team, and the eagle-eyed Eric Stephen noted Ramon Ortiz’ #35 bag in the clubhouse truck being packed for Los Angeles.

That leaves the final spot on the staff, and though Russ Ortiz, Josh Towers, Justin Miller, and Luis Ayala are theoretically still in play, there can’t be any question it’s going to Carlos Monasterios. Miller and Towers each have opt-out clauses in their contracts which don’t hit until May 1 (Miller) and June 15 (Towers), so they can be sent to AAA without being lost – and they will be. Monasterios, as you all know by now, would be lost as a Rule 5 pick if he doesn’t make the roster. Would you rather keep the 24-year-old with a 1.93 spring ERA, the 32-year-old in Ayala who was cut or DFA’d three times last year alone (when he’s not being an epic douche or putting up a 5.68 ERA for four teams in the last two years), or the 35-year-old Ortiz, who gave up another homer today and is Russ Ortiz?

There’s just no question there, because there can’t be. Nor is there any question left regarding the roster. Remember, the 25 men who make up the Opening Day roster are somewhat overrated, because due to injury or performance, you’re going to be seeing at least 10 other players this year, if not more. You’ll see Belisario. You’ll see Kuo. You’ll see Scott Elbert and James McDonald. You’ll probably even see an Xavier Paul or A.J. Ellis or Josh Lindblom at some point, plus whomever comes and goes in trades. So don’t get too worked up over the roster on April 5 (it’s the only way to think about seeing Nick Green in Dodger blue, after all), but also don’t hold your breath that the roster you see in Pittsburgh is going to be any different than what’s outlined above.

Update: speaking of someone who’s not going to be on the roster now or at any point in the future, smartest man in baseball Brian Barton was released today.

Jason Repko Walks the Plank

March 30, 2010 at 4:50 pm | Posted in Jason Repko | 9 Comments

To the surprise of absolutely no one, reports are that the Dodgers have put Jason Repko on waivers, almost certainly ending his tenure with the team. Despite having been in the organization since about 1973 (okay, 1999) Repko still wasn’t out of options, so this isn’t an Eric Stults situation. This move was more about opening up another spot on the 40-man roster, since the Dodgers will be adding at least two (Garret Anderson, Jeff Weaver) and possibly four (Ramon Ortiz, Nick Green) non-roster invites to the club.

Unlike Stults, I have no problem with seeing the end of the Jason Repko era. I mean, when you think of Repko’s time with the Dodgers, what stands out? Was it the 301 plate appearances he received on the dreadful 2005 team, with which he put up a line of .221/.281/.384 – and then somehow turned that into an Opening Day start in 2006? Or the time he ruined Rafael Furcal’s 2007 season by diving through his ankle (shown at right) and then later in the same game, blew out his hamstring and missed the whole season?

Or maybe it’s the more-talented outfielders who were let go due to roster crunches while Repko somehow just kept on surviving - guys like Jayson Werth, Delwyn Young, Shane Victorino, and Cody Ross? Really, we already wrote his obituary in our 2009 season in review feature, back in December:

Here’s another fact for you: Repko’s status as “longest-tenured Dodger” almost certainly ended with a strikeout on the last day of the regular season, as he’s arbitration-eligible and has done almost nothing to justify a raise on his 2009 salary of $500k. His various stints with the big club have produced just a 74 OPS+, and in yet another year in AAA (which he first reached in 2004) he had a ghastly 80/24 K/BB rate while putting up an .800 OPS. At 29 in December, he’s being passed on the organization ladder by younger outfielders like Xavier Paul and Jamie Hoffmann, with more on the way.

Still, Repko’s not without his uses. His speed, strong throwing arm, and ability to play all 3 outfield spots make him a decent 4th outfielder, but as tenuous as that value is, it’s all but invisible on a team like the Dodgers that’s stacked with outfielders both talented and highly-paid. Believe it or not, Repko’s been in the Dodger organization since 1999 (making his debut as the SS on the Great Falls Dodgers that went 29-47 and featured just one other player who’d make it to the bigs, Shane Victorino), so it’s a little melancholy to predict his imminent unemployment.

But go he must; for there’s no room at this inn for a nearly-30 backup outfielder who’s making more than the minimum and can’t really hit. You don’t have to go home, but you can’t stay here.

And go he has. The longest-tenured Dodger (with continuous service, so Jeff Weaver’s spot on the 2004 squad doesn’t count) is now Jonathan Broxton, a declaration I made somewhat prematurely about 15 months ago.

So Long, Eric Stults

March 30, 2010 at 10:52 am | Posted in Eric Stults | 7 Comments

Eric Stults was scratched from today’s start, and with good reason: he’s reportedly been shipped off to a yet-to-be-named Japanese team (update: the Hiroshima Carp, apparently. Go Carp!). We’ve been hearing “Stults to Japan” rumors since early in the offseason, so this isn’t a total surprise. While the club hasn’t officially announced that Japan is indeed his destination, Tony Jackson proves exactly why we still do need beat writers around the team every day:

But a few minutes before leaving the clubhouse, Stults had a long conversation in the clubhouse with three other pitchers, Josh Towers, Charlie Haeger and Justin Miller. At one point, the four pitchers could clearly be overheard talking about sushi. And just before leaving the clubhouse, Stults had a brief exchange with Kenji Nimura, a Dodgers employee who serves as an interpreter for both Japanese- and Spanish-speaking players.

So it’s not much of a stretch to think that Japan is in Stults’ future. Besides, with Charlie Haeger looking like he’s got the #5 spot sewed up, the out-of-options Stults was going to have to end up elsewhere, so all the better for him.

But is this really worth it?

I don’t want to put too much praise onto a soft-tossing 30-year-old with 8 career MLB wins, an 88 ERA+, and who just lost out to a knuckleballer for the last rotation spot. He’s not that good. I get it, and you have to reserve some judgement until you see just how much in yen is coming back to the Dodgers.

But nor is Eric Stults worthless. Let’s not forget the 4-hit shutout of the White Sox in 2008 and the shutout of the Giants in 2009, which are more shutouts than Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley combined can boast. He’s entirely useful, yet the Dodgers – Joe Torre in particular – never seemed to have any faith in him whatsoever. Remember, last year he was 4-1 with a 3.58 ERA after 6 starts. That would be one outstanding outing (the shutout of SF), four acceptable outings (going at least 5 IP with 3 or fewer ER), and one lousy appearance. From a fifth starter, that’s pretty goddamn good. Yet he received just four starts the rest of the year (granted, partly due to his thumb injury), even while the Dodgers desperately tried to fill out their rotation.

He got the same treatment in 2008. Stults made 7 starts and gave up more than 3 earned runs exactly once. Yet after a somewhat rough outing in a July blowout win over Colorado (even then, only 3 runs allowed in 3.2 IP), he was yanked and didn’t see the bigs again until the last week of the season. He’s not an All-Star, and he’ll never be. But we’ve said this more times than I can link to over the course of this blog – as a 5th starter, a guy who can keep you in the game and occasionally come up with a gem, he’s just fine.

Which brings us back to the question of, why? I prefer Haeger to Stults in the rotation, so I’m not crushed he didn’t win the #5 job. But as far as I can see, there’s no compelling reason to make this move right now. Stults may not have a ton of bullpen experience, but with Hong-Chih Kuo on the DL and Ronald Belisario on the restricted list, you can shoehorn Stults onto the roster for at least a few weeks – especially on a team that may have just one lefty reliever and has a starting rotation notorious for not going deep into games.

And who knows what could happen in that time? Kuo’s arm could give out entirely. Vicente Padilla could fight a cop. Bill Plaschke could hit Chad Billingsley with his car. If you can’t be bothered to give Doug Mientkiewicz his release for three more days because you’re terrified that Garret Anderson may wake up with a bad case of osteoporosis, then you should want to hold on to Stults for as long as you can. No, as far as I can see there’s three possibilities for this move being made now, and I don’t like any of them.

1) To keep some of the retreads. I’ll give Jeff Weaver a pass because he was pretty solid as a Dodger last season. Unfortunately, Russ and Ramon Ortiz do not fall under that umbrella, because as we’ve said many times – they’ve been absolutely horrible pitchers for many years. Ramon is actually likely to make the club as a reliever, and it’s not that I have a problem with that, but there’s probably room to keep both Ramon and Stults, at least at first. If Stults got dumped in order to keep more than just Ramon – like Russ, or Justin Miller, or Luis Ayala, then that makes no sense at all.

2) To keep Nick Green. We’ve seen a few times in the last few days that the club may start with 11 pitchers in order to keep an extra reserve, and that reserve would probably be Green as a backup shortstop. Who would you rather – the pitcher who has two shutouts under his belt, or the backup infielder who can’t hit or field, and isn’t better than minor leaguers you currently have? Sticking Stults in the bullpen for a few weeks at the expense of not keeping Green (who’d likely just report to Albuquerque anyway) is a risk absolutely worth taking.

3) To help Eric Stults. This is a nice gesture, if it’s the case - allow him to get over to his new home as soon as possible. Unfortunately, the Dodgers are in the business of winning baseball games, not helping people, and if any pitcher goes down in the next few weeks this is going to be quite regrettable.

Sayonara, Eric. You were sorely underappreciated in Blue.

So Long, Spring Training. Hello, Real World.

March 29, 2010 at 2:47 pm | Posted in Clayton Kershaw, Laynce Nix, Spring Training, Tommy Lasorda | 13 Comments

Thoughts from an outstanding spring training weekend (2 games, 2 Dodger wins) while flying over snowy northern Arizona to a connection in Denver, which may be my new home since NYC is apparently living through a hurricane…

Most dominating pitching performance: With all due respect to Charlie Haeger, who put up 5.1 scoreless against Seattle and hopefully sewed up the #5 job, this has to go to Clayton Kershaw for the complete devastation he laid on Reds 3B Juan Francisco. Francisco struck out each of the 3 times he faced Kershaw, but that doesn’t even do it justice. Between being taunted by his fellow lefty with mid 90s heat and solid offspeed stuff, Francisco nearly screwed himself into the ground like Bugs Bunny trying to keep up. You almost felt bad for him. Almost.

Best performance by a player who I wanted the Dodgers to trade for: Reds OF Laynce Nix, who is a lefty bat with good power and solid defense. As I mentioned last week, I think he’s a far better option than Garret Anderson, and therefore it was a little gratifying to watch him take a Kershaw pitch and turn it into a laser off the right field wall for a double.

Worst showing by a major metropolitan area: Phoenix, for the incredibly lackluster downtown area on Saturday night. I joked that there was more activity around the movie theatre in my hometown than there was in downtown Phoenix, but its sort of true. There’s supposedly 1.5 million people who live in Phoenix… are they counting the entire state? It was like living through “I Am Legend”, just without the aggressive zombies. As far as I know.

Most valuable Tweet: This goes to “tpferriera”, for his (?) invaluable suggestion to check out Scottsdale rather then Phoenix for some nightlife. Just no comparison there.

Best looking Dodger legend: Don Newcombe, looking surprisingly spry while throwing out the first pitch at Saturday’s game. There’s a flip side to that coin, though, and that’s…

Worst looking Dodger legend: Tommy Lasorda, who… well, it’s been a long time since Tommy’s been in the kind of shape one could be proud of, but seeing him slowly amble down the foul line in full uniform like he was 80% comprised of cottage cheese was, well, disturbing.

Most unintentionally hilarious newscast: To Phoenix’s Channel 5 (I think) for its’ high-school-quality and far-too-artsy coverage of their lead story, a motorcycle accident that killed several. I think the story has enough drama, friends, no need to try to add to it with extreme closeups and shooting stories of survivors by having them positioned so that you can get their reflections in the bike’s rear view mirrors. Now onto Senator McCain’s reelection bid.. but wait, breaking news!! Bees have invaded a home in the suburbs! (I swear this all happened.)

Happiest tattooed, scarred, silver-toothed, blinged-out, gang-member felon dbag: To the nameless fellow (but let’s be honest, it has to be something like “Snake” or “Mad Dog”, right?) proudly running down the concourse displaying the fresh Vin Scully autograph on the shoulder of his Dodger jersey. Sometimes I wonder if Vin is wasted calling baseball games when he really ought to be bringing peace to the Middle East or something. Let me tell you, the crowd that gathered when he came out of the booth was bigger than any player got.

Most random Dodger jersey: There were a surprising amount of Gagne shirts still in use, which I guess really isn’t that big of a surprise. I did enjoy the Sax #3 sighting, but the winner here has to be the guy still rocking Raul Mondesi’s #43. Honorable mention: For a guy who hasn’t even officially made the team yet, I did see several DeWitt shirts in the crowd. Mostly on the ladies, though, so he’s got that going for him.

Worst performance by a fan base: Reds fans, for their paltry showing in a brand-new park on the last Sunday of spring. Despite the weather being absolutely perfect and the Dodgers starting their regular 8 plus Kershaw, the Reds attracted almost literally half of the crowd at the previous day’s Dodger home game. Not only that, the breakdown was something along the lines of 50% Dodger fans, 30% Reds fans, and 20% empty seats. This is why Cincinnati moved to Arizona?

Private conversation I wish I could have heard: Andre Ethier walking back to the main field with Peter Gammons attached to him. I do have a picture of this somewhere, but knowing Gammons, he’s probably asking Ethier if he has any dirt on the Red Sox. Homer.

Oddest chance meeting weirdly mirroring my own life: To the family in front of us at the Reds game, who were Nationals & Yankee fans from Virginia, yet had a small boy who was a diehard Tiger fan (to the point that he wanted to move to Michigan – good luck with that – because he played on the Tigers in his first year of organized ball. Uh, that doesn’t sound familiar or anything…

Live from Camelback: the Charlie Haeger Show

March 27, 2010 at 4:42 pm | Posted in Charlie Haeger, Spring Training | 9 Comments

Fun fact about Arizona: just because it seems a little chilly in the morning doesn’t mean that it won’t be blazingly HOT at the park, though you’ll hear no complaints from this pasty easterner. Camelback’s a pretty nice setup, since the practice fields and paths back to the main park take players directly through fans.

In fact, our timing couldn’t have been better – as we walked in, half the team trotted back to take BP mere inches in front us, including Manny, Kemp, Ethier, DeWitt, Blake, Hu, & Mattingly. If I had any idea how to include pictures in a post I’m writing on my phone, I would, because Manny and his dreads look even more ridiculous close up.

After watching Hiroki Kuroda and Josh Lindblom throw bullpen sessions – and let me tell you, Lindblom’s curve in person is killer – we went to the next field over to watch everyone’s favorite drill, pitchers fielding practice. All of the main starters and relievers were there, except for Ramon Troncoso – not sure why. For what would otherwise be a tedious drill on a hot day, the gang was audibly laughing and getting on one another, yelling for laps when a ball was booted.

After catching the end of BP, destroying some sausages, and chatting with some friendly Mariners fans, it was game time. I saw Dodger exec Josh Rawitch in the crowd more than once, and though I wanted to say hi, he seemed extremely busy so I concentrated on the delicious Shock Top brew.

As for the game itself… well, I’ve seen other writers saying that one of the Ortiz catastrophes will win the 5th spot, but I just can’t see how its not Charlie Haeger. Against what was more or less the regular Mariner lineup, Haeger was dominating in allowing just 2 hits over 5 scoreless innings, including striking out the side in the first. If possible, he was even more dominating than the line shows, as hitter after hitter looked completely foolish against him.

For the second time in a row, Ramon Ortiz pitched just one inning, seemingly making it clear that he’s headed for the pen. Carlos Monasterios didn’t make it through his inning of work, and Russ Ortiz gave up a homer in his turn. Make a case for Eric Stults if you like, but there is absolutely no valid reason why retreads like the Ortizes (or Josh Towers) should be kept at the expense of losing Haeger, who’s been a favorite of this blog for a while now.

In addition to the pitching, the Dodgers looked tight. Ethier crushed a homer to center, Casey Blake had an RBI double, and even though I hate to admit it, Jamey Carroll made a fine stab at SS to start a 6-4-3 DP with Chin-Lung Hu and Ronnie Belliard.

Still, today belongs to the knuckleball… as should the 5th spot in the rotation. On to Goodyear for Dodgers @ Reds tomorrow.

Be Excellent To One Another This Weekend…

March 26, 2010 at 8:33 am | Posted in Spring Training | 1 Comment

(Yeah, that’s right. A Bill & Ted joke. What of it?)

…because your friend MSTI is flying thousands of miles away to go to Camelback Ranch. I went to Vero Beach three times (plus a non-Dodger stop in Orlando for the Braves last year), but I’ve never experienced Arizona baseball. Plus, I believe that the two games I’m seeing (Mariners @ Dodgers, Dodgers @ Reds) feature Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley, so it’s win/win for a guy who was terrified of seeing nothing but Ortizes this weekend.

Since it’s about 50 degrees and raining in NYC right now, the timing couldn’t be better. Anyway, since I’m an addict, I’ll be keeping up with everything on the MSTI Twitter feed, so hop over there to follow along with the fun. There’s a non-zero possibility I’ll post here if something big breaks, but Twitter’s probably the way to go for the weekend.

In the meantime, I leave you with this, which is basically the face I made when I heard that Vicente Padilla was named Opening Day starter.

Vicente Pa-whaaaa?!

March 25, 2010 at 9:55 am | Posted in Vicente Padilla | 31 Comments

Uh… Ken Gurnick?

The Dodgers will name Vicent Padilla their Opening Day starter.

Thanks to the magic of Twitter, let’s see the immediate reaction from several people I have a lot of respect for:

jay_jaffe    Why, did he shoot Kershaw and Billingsley?

craigcalcaterra    This has to be a joke, right?

injuryexpert    RT @jay_jaffe: Why, did he shoot Kershaw and Billingsley?

truebluela    What the hell?

DodgerDivorce    You’ve got to be kidding me.

The funny thing is, the Opening Day starter role usually doesn’t really matter at all. I already had a post prepared to go for when Clayton Kershaw was named the starter, and it included this passage:

the Dodgers haven’t exactly had a great recent tradition with their Opening Day starters. Last year, Hiroki Kuroda threw 5.2 innings against the Padres, and then immediately disappeared for two months with a pulled muscle, returning only to take a line drive off the head, miss the NLDS with a neck injury, and get torched in the NLCS. In 2008, Brad Penny ended his Dodger tenure by putting up a 6.27 ERA in 19 games. That’s neither here nor there – Derek Lowe started the previous three seasons and he was very effective as a Dodger – but the point is, it’s hardly a guarantee of a successful season. A nice honor; nothing more, nothing less.

From a baseball standpoint, Padilla getting the job doesn’t change that. But from a public relations standpoint… I mean, this isn’t going to shut up the “they don’t have an ace” crowd, is it? They could have gone with Kershaw, who’s young but undeniably talented. They could have gone with Hiroki Kuroda, who got the job last year. They could have gone with Chad Billingsley, who has had the most MLB success of any of the starters over the last few years and then positioned it as a “we have total confidence in you, Chad” move.

But Padilla? The guy who was picked up for free last year? The guy who shot himself in the offseason? The guy who’s always one step away from a total breakdown? This is the guy you’re starting your season off with? I don’t even care from an on-the-field perspective, but the stories that are going to come off of this will just be more bad PR in an offseason full of it.

Russell Martin to Catch Opening Day?

March 24, 2010 at 8:58 pm | Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

(aka, “AJ Ellis’ Crushing Disappointment.”)

Despite pronouncements that Martin could miss 6 weeks, Dylan Hernandez tweets that he may not miss any regular season time at all:

@dylanohernandez: Russell Martin said his groin has healed to where he does not think it will keep him out of the lineup on opening day.

Clearly, this is coming from Martin’s mouth, and he’s always going to say that he’s fine, so let’s take that with the grain of salt it deserves. Still, he’s scheduled to catch a few innings in a minor league game tomorrow, and how he feels after that will play a large part in determining his future.

At present, there’s less than two weeks until Opening Day. That may or may not be enough time for Martin to work his way back up to catching full games. That’s really the goal, because with Brad Ausmus having back trouble, the Dodgers can’t afford two catchers who may not be at full strength, and they certainly don’t have the roster space to carry three catchers. Hopefully, the team is smart enough to not let him overdo it, because missing a few games in April is far preferable to missing a few weeks or months later simply so he could make an arbitrary deadline.

(This is the first time I’ve tried to post entirely from my phone. Let’s see if this even works or not.)

Your Obligatory Chad Gaudin Post

March 23, 2010 at 12:00 pm | Posted in Chad Gaudin, Jamie Hoffmann | 5 Comments

Since it won’t seem to go away, I suppose I’ll have to address the rumors about the Dodgers going after Yankees righty Chad Gaudin to be the 5th starter. We’ve heard this rumor floating around a few times in the last few days, mainly in reference to how the Yankees would still like to keep Jamie Hoffmann, even though they just returned him to the Dodgers. Since Gaudin was in a 4-way battle for Yankee 5th starter, and he seems to have lost that battle since he’s been put on waivers, outside observers think there’s a fit to be made since the Dodger rotation is apparently made entirely of duct tape and tissue paper.

But is there, really?

Let me be clear, first: I don’t really care about losing Jamie Hoffmann. Sure, he’s a nice player and a fantastic outfielder, and you have to love a guy who’s really a hockey player. Having him around for depth is fine by me. But his ceiling is probably that of a 4th outfielder at best, and on a team with a rock-solid starting 3 ahead of him, better players at the same level next to him (Xavier Paul and maybe Jason Repko) and more talented players coming behind him (namely Andrew Lambo and Trayvon Robinson) it’s not like he’s got a real future as a Dodger. So if you trade him for a more useful part, even if it breaks my usual stance against trading prospects for mediocre veterans, I’m completely fine with that – especially if the Yankees pick up most of the $2.95m Gaudin is owed this year, which you’d have to think they would.

No, the question here is not “is it worth trading Hoffmann for Gaudin?” The question is really, “is Chad Gaudin a better option than the multiple 5th starter options the Dodgers already have?” That’s the part I’m not so sure about.

First, let’s look at Gaudin. He turns 27 tomorrow, and has spent parts of 7 big league seasons with 6 different teams. He was horrible for the Padres last year (4-10, 5.19 ERA) before being dealt to the Yankees and performing somewhat better, notching a 3.43 ERA in 11 games (6 starts). MSTI’s preferred Yankee blog River Ave Blues sums him up…

In over 460 career innings in the American League, Gaudin has been the definition of league average. His 4.25 ERA equals a 101 ERA+, his .271 batting average against isn’t much worse than the .265-ish league average (basically one extra hit every 142 at-bats), and his 6.5 K/9 is right around the 6.8-ish average as well (one fewer strikeout every 30 IP). His walk rate (4.2 BB/9) is definitely high (~3.4 league average), but he mitigates it somewhat with a strong groundball rate (43.7%). There’s nothing sexy about league average, but it’s very valuable in the role he’s expected to fill.

Oddly enough – though in a much smaller sample size, I will admit – Gaudin’s been far worse in the National League. In 132.2 NL innings, his career ERA is 5.36, for a 72 ERA+. Plus, not that I’m going to put too much importance in just one game, but Gaudin has only pitched in Dodger Stadium once in his career, as a Padre on May 3, 2009. He allowed 6 runs in 5.2 innings, including allowing 4 hits in a row to lead off the game.

Over at FanGraphs, they’ve got projections from 4 of the most well-known systems – Bill James, CHONE, Marcel, and ZIPS. They variously predict him to pitch between 126-162 innings, with FIP (that’s Fielding-Independent Pitching, or ERA without caring about how good your defense is) between 4.24-4.58 and a K rate of about 7 per 9 innings, while walking 4 per 9 innings.

For a 5th starter, that’s not terrible. Yet it’s also not much different than a guy the Dodgers already have in Eric Stults, who’s projected to come in between 4.45-4.57 in FIP (and who’s a lefty with two MLB shutouts to his name), and then there’s also the question of how much promise you see in Charlie Haeger and Carlos Monasterios - two guys who defy projection systems, due to being a knuckleballer and a Rule 5 pick. In addition, while I won’t pretend I have a ton of faith in Ramon and Russ Ortiz, there are those who won’t be able to look past the terrific springs they’ve had as opposed to Gaudin’s lousy camp.

The point is, while Gaudin may be an acceptable 5th starter option, he’s hardly a clear improvement over the guys already in camp. On a team already facing roster issues on the pitching staff, that’s a big concern. The Dodgers have at least 3 pitching hopefuls – Stults, Haeger, & Monasterios - who will probably be lost if they’re not added to the team. That number may increase to 5 if the Ortizes refuse to go to the minors, as we believe they can. Adding Gaudin just makes that decision even tougher.

In a vacuum, Gaudin isn’t a terrible back-end starting choice. In a vacuum, trading a spare minor-league outfielder for a mediocrely decent starting pitcher is fine. But adding him would be just causing more of a roster crunch which would cause guys with hope like Monasterios or Haeger to be lost, without adding any real value over what the club already has. So thanks… but no thanks.

(Besides, look at his ridiculous beard here. What if he only shaved that off last year because he was on the Yankees? Does anyone really want to see that in Dodger blue? If 2010′s “The Beard” is a downgrade from Casey Blake’s glorious chin coverage to that atrocity, this year’s off to a rough start already.)

Crisis Averted!

March 22, 2010 at 11:31 am | Posted in Angel Berroa | 7 Comments

Normally the release of a non-roster middle infielder wouldn’t warrant its own blog post. But Angel Berroa is no normal player, which is why the news from Dodger Thoughts is so welcome:

Gurnick also notes that the Dodgers released shortstop Angel Berroa.

I have neither the time nor the space to recount my entire blogging history regarding Angel Berroa, but I encourage you to look through the archives and enjoy such gems as…

“Berroa is so bad that he might actually open a hole in the goddamn space-time continuum.”

and

“the so-bad-I-may-renounce-my-fandom-if-he-sticks Angel Berroa.”

and

“and Berroa, well, he’s basically the worst major leaguer in baseball history.”

And that’s only since he was signed this winter, much less when he played every day in 2008. If you’re a real masochist, I’d start from the day he was acquired. Even better, he wasn’t just sent to minor-league camp, he was flat-out released. Hooray!