James Loney Is Going to Have a Huge Year
March 2, 2010 at 8:27 pm | Posted in James Loney | 16 CommentsIt’s been a recurring question for the last two seasons. It’s the most recent story on the Rotoworld Dodgers feed. It was the subject of a story in the Los Angeles Times just a few days ago, and it’s time to look at it in more depth.
When will James Loney hit for power?
Oh, sure, Loney’s saying all the right things. “I feel this is the year,” he said to Dylan Hernandez in the Times article. “I feel stronger,” he added. “It’s the strongest I’ve ever felt.” Which is all well and good, except spring training is littered with the corpses of guys who said they were in the best shape of their lives. Remember how confident Russell Martin was last year? Yeah, how did that work out?
But in Loney’s case, he’s got a lot more going for him than his boastful words. Without completely repeating the article I wrote on this exact topic in the 2010 Maple Street Press Dodgers Annual (on sale now! Featuring Dodger Thoughts, True Blue LA, Dodger Divorce, Memories of Kevin Malone, Josh Suchon, BP‘s Jay Jaffe, and so much more!) I’m putting it out there right now: James Loney is going to take an enormous leap forward in 2010.
Really, the problem thus far has been that Loney’s been a little underrated. No, I’m not going to defend the .399 SLG from a year ago, which is completely unacceptable from just about any position but especially so from first base. It’s just that I think people forget how incredibly young Loney still is, mostly because this is a guy who’s been in the minds of Dodger fans for quite a while. He’s about to start his fifth season in the bigs, and it’s been nearly 8 years since he was a first round pick. To many casual fans, that’s long enough that he should stop being a “prospect” and start “shaping up or shipping out”.
Well, it’s fortunate for the rest of us that casual fans don’t run the team, because it’s easy to forget that despite his career in the organization, Loney is still just 25 years old. He made his debut at only 21 (yes, just months older than Clayton Kershaw was for his debut) and tantalized us all with some big displays of power in parts of 2006 and 2007 before settling into a nearly identical 2008 and 2009 seasons which many saw as a disappointment. Yet if he didn’t have the immediate splash guys like Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols did, those years were far from disappointing. In fact, they’ve set him up to make a huge leap this year, and here’s why.
He’s still just 25 – and has established himself as a viable major league hitter. Two seasons of 13 homers and OPS+ scores that are just slightly above-average (103 and 104) aren’t really sexy, to be sure. At shortstop, that might make you a star, but in a National League with first basemen like Pujols, Howard, Fielder, and the rest, that puts you in the back of the pack. Yet if you look at his baseball-reference page, something jumps out at you immediately: in each of his four seasons (two partial), his OPS+ is in triple digits. He’s been at least league-average or better every year. Considering he was ages 22-25 in those seasons and still learning his way around the bigs, that’s impressive. If Loney were to keep pumping out seasons like the last two, it’s still good enough that he’d have a big-league career for years to come. Yet very few players peak before their 26th birthday. 2008-09 may not have been eye-catching, but considering the ages he was during them, it gives him a nice base to work from. In fact, what he’s done at his young age is pretty notable considering…
His comparables are impressive. At baseball-reference, they have what they call “Similarity Scores”, which compare a player to every other player in history at his position, through each year of age. Check out some of Loney’s 1B comparables through age 25…
1) Jeff Bagwell
2) Ted Kluszewski
6) Rafael Palmeiro
7) High Pockets Kelly*
8) Steve Garvey
9) Joe Adcock
10) Adrian Gonzalez
*You don’t know who this is. Honestly, neither did I. But I included him because A) he’s a Hall of Famer and B) HIS NAME IS “HIGH POCKETS”.
That’s one Hall of Famer (Kelly), one lock once he’s eligible (Bagwell), one who would be on numbers alone if not for the PED issue (Palmeiro), one of the legendarily feared sluggers of his time (Kluszewski), one of the biggest stars of today (Gonzalez), and two long-time stars (Adcock and Garvey).
That’s some impressive company. Yet that only takes into account what Loney has done up until this point in his career, in seasons some have found underwhelming. We’ve already seen signs that he might advance past that, especially since…
His pitch recognition is improving. As many have noted, Loney’s 2008 and 2009 stat lines are eerily similar – I mean, it’s one thing to put up 13 homers and 90 RBI two years in a row, but to get 651 plate appearances on the nose twice in a row? That’s just freaky. But what it does do is help us see exactly what changed in the same amount of appearances from the first year to the next. In 2008, Loney struck out 40 more times than he walked (85-45). Yet in 2009, that number changed by 42, to the point that he actually walked twice more than he K’s (68-70).
That’s a pretty stunning turnaround in the space of just one year, and it really shows a young player who’s gaining control of the strike zone – he swung at 4% fewer pitches outside the strike zone in 2009 than the year before. At his age, the turnaround in K/BB is a fantastic sign. While some might say, “well that’s great, but then why didn’t he hit with any more authority?”, the fact is that as the year went on…
He ended last year on a great hot streak. This may or may not, as I wrote in the Annual, have anything to do with bench coach Bob Schaefer telling him to lose his mouthguard. Yet from August 25th on, Loney crushed the ball, hitting .296/.382/.464 (.846 OPS) with 6 homers. In the playoffs, he was even better, putting up an .892 OPS with 2 more homers. Whether it was the mouthpiece, seeing better pitches because he was laying off the junk, just maturing the point where everything ”clicked”, or some combination of the three, Loney took off in late August and never stopped.
If this all sounds familiar, it’s because I wrote a very similar post last September, in the middle of his hot streak. All he did after that was keep it up – improve, even – and all signs point to 2010 being the Year of the Loney. You heard it here. (For the record, while I’m high on Loney, I feel the opposite about Martin. Therefore, expect Martin to be an All-Star while Loney is demoted by June.)
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I wish the media could just lay off and let Loney develop the way that he was intended to develop. The first thing I think when I see or hear questions like “When are you going to hit for power?” I immediately think of what I would do, which is swing for the fences next time I see anything that looks remotely straight coming out of the pitcher’s hand. Great article, Mike, especially the part about Martin being an all-star and Loney getting demoted by June hahaha.
Comment by Trevor — March 2, 2010 #
The B-R comparables formula uses RBIs–which is where Loney and Bagwell are most compatible in the comp. That’s why Bagwell showed up. The difference in BB rate/IsoD are red flags. Plus, Bagwell played in the Astrodome for years, so those numbers are incredible.
Big Klu with more walks isn’t a bad comparison, though. Loney has at least shown some power potential, I hope he figures it out this year.
PS–For a good laugh, look at Joe Morgan’s numbers during and after his Houston years.
Comment by dingers — March 2, 2010 #
Don’t agree, but hope you are right. :o
Being an average hitter at first base is fine when you’re making 400k, not so much as you get up there in arbitration years. The league average takes into account everybody, remember, and first base is a premium offensive position, as it takes less defensive skill.
You know all this, i’m sure, but it really does hinge on his power development. If he showed any signs of it happening at any point in his minor or major league career, I would be hopeful. I just can’t. :o
Comment by Chad — March 3, 2010 #
Well I agree with you that he’s probably never going to be in the “top tier” of 1B; he’s never hitting 40 HR like a Howard or Fielder. I just think there is more there than we’ve seen since he’s still so young, and if we end up with a guy who can hit .320 with 25 HR and a slick glove, that’s pretty valuable.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness — March 3, 2010 #
320. with 25 homers and a slick glove would obviously be good for Loney at any age, the problem is that he seems more likely to be a 295. 18 homer overrated glove guy, and once we are paying him in arbitration the value there is not great. Not to say he can’t improve like a 25 year old should but there are too many first base options to be had over the next two years, Loney is at a sort of do or die stage.
Comment by Table — March 3, 2010 #
I agree with Table. I really do want to see Loney go .320 with 25 bombs, my concern is that if he doesn’t quite reach that, and hovers at or under .300 / 20 then he will be hurting us at a major offensive position. I do think this is a make or break year for Loney, if he is sitting at 105 OPS+ come the deadline, or the end of the season, we really need to consider bringing in a Thome-esque veteran for the last half of the season or trading for or signing a big middle of the order bat. Maybe bringing a guy like Delgado in mid-season if Loney’s still lurking around league average might light a fire under him. But I do like the positive indicators that MSTI pointed out, like the great BB/K, and I’m really hoping for a breakout year from him, but like Martin, he really needs to take a big step forward this year, or else his job should be in jeopardy come 2011, maybe sooner…
Comment by Bryan — March 3, 2010 #
i don’t disagree with you guys that 2010 is a make-or-break year for him; I just think it’s going to be “make”.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness — March 3, 2010 #
[...] MSTI thinks James Loney will have a big year. So Do I! It’s his time. [...]
Pingback by Never Write Another Word About C-Bill | LADodgerTalk.com - Get Your Daily Dodger Juice, Dodger News and Dodger Rumors — March 3, 2010 #
Loney, goes against the norms, He just does not hit well at home. go figure.
Away during his brief career,.320 .375 .524 .900. This in 824 ABS..
At home the guy must have some kind of distractions,
in 793 ABS .269 .333 .376 .709. its just the reverse of most players!
but i find the away and hope splits interesting, particularly how much Loney improved after Aug..
Comment by bluetrain — March 3, 2010 #
Back when I was a lot more actively blogging baseball, one of the things I did to amuse myself in the offseason was to take on the birthdays of players who had spent time with either the Angels or Dodgers. One in the latter category was George “High Pockets” Kelly, of whom Bill James said, “wasn’t a Hall of Famer on the best day of his life”. The guy got in because the Veteran’s Committee was packed with former teammates.
So let’s hope that’s not the career trajectory that James Loney takes.
Comment by Rob McMillin — March 3, 2010 #
Fair enough – and good find. Still, Kelly was a good player for a number of years, if not a HOF. More importantly, blog more!
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness — March 3, 2010 #
I’ve been a huge loney supporter ever since watching him go 4 for 5 with 9rbi’s in late september 2006. I completely agree that he’s going to break out sooner or later, and put up some great numbers… hopefully sooner than later!
but what i’m concerned about is russel martin. I think every dodger fan is hoping he can bounce back to all star form after that abysmal season last year, especially since we dont have carlos santana to fall back on now. I think it would be awesome if you could write a piece about martin and give us some inside information about where he went wrong last year, and why you think he’s not going to improve this year.
love the blog, keep up the good work!
Comment by James — March 3, 2010 #
I believe Loney’s offensive value will be more in his batting average than in his homerun power.
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Loney hit .380 at Las Vegas in 2006.
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Loney is now entering the third year of my prediction that he would put a scare into .400 at least into mid-August sometime in a seven-year span.
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Is this the year?!
Comment by John Hamilton — March 3, 2010 #
Kevin Kouzmanoff hit around 380. that same year, but has a career 261. batting average in the majors.
Comment by Table — March 3, 2010 #
I like the fact that LoneDog has shown a knack for delivering clutch hits in big games. I hope he breaks out this year. It would be nice to have a lot of homegrowns on this team.
Comment by mk — March 3, 2010 #
What do you think about a Keith Hernandez comparison? He never hit a lot of HRs, but he was a powerful hitter and got on base. Loney’s defense is often praised although advanced metrics say he’s close to average, Keith Hernandez was known to be an elite defender in his prime.
Comment by Geffin — March 3, 2010 #