When Do Spring Training Stats Start to Matter?
March 20, 2010 at 9:05 am | Posted in James McDonald | 16 Comments
We all know that March stats are the most unreliable figures in baseball. The level of competition is uneven at best, since the rosters are full of minor league guys with no shot of playing in the bigs this season. You’ve got pitchers working up to their full velocity, or trying out that new curveball which they’d never throw in the regular season. Plus, hitters are either trying to get their timing down or just making sure they don’t hurt themselves. All these variables – plus the unbelievably small sample sizes – make spring training stats almost useless. We all love Blake DeWitt, but does anyone really think he’s going to OPS 1.092 this year, as he is in the spring? Do the 18 excellent innings put up by Russ and Ramon Ortiz matter more than the 9 or so horrible seasons they’ve combined for in the last few years? Of course not.
Yet at some point, you have to realize that James McDonald is rocking a 20.25 ERA – having allowed 19 runners in just 5.1 innings - and wonder how much of that stat line can be dismissed. When McDonald was knocked out of the 5th starter competition the other day, it didn’t bother me all that much; with the issues the bullpen is having and the limited number of starts the last rotation member gets, you could make the case he’d be needed more in the bullpen. But too many outings like yesterday’s…
McDonald, having pitched his way out of the competition for the final spot in the rotation, might have pitched himself off the team by allowing six runs on six hits with two walks in 1 1/3 innings. McDonald sat in front of his locker with head in hands after the game.
“James had a tough night,” said manager Joe Torre. “He had good stuff and got ahead 0-2, then it was 3-2, and all of a sudden bad things happened. He’s just got to be more economical.”
…and you wonder whether he’s even going to make the roster at all. Remember, despite his failure as a starter last year, McDonald was excellent out of the bullpen (2.72 ERA, 48/20 K/BB ratio) so his inclusion on this year’s squad should have been a foregone conclusion. But McDonald has been so bad this spring (nothing is more troubling than the 2/5 K/BB ratio) and there’s so many other pitchers impressing that it’s going to be hard to look past his otherwise meaningless spring line.
Remember, McDonald does still have minor-league options left, and the Dodgers have several pitchers in camp who can’t be sent down without being exposed to other teams. If it means holding onto Charlie Haeger, Eric Stults, Carlos Monasterios, or even the odd Ortiz or two, then perhaps Albuquerque is where he’s best served.
Obviously, there’s side-effects to that, both good and bad. Not having an effective McDonald in the bullpen as he was last year is another blow to a squad that’s missing Ronald Belisario (still!), has lingering health questions about Hong-Chih Kuo (though he did pitch an apparently pain-free inning last night), and an achy George Sherrill. That said, the long-term goal should be for McDonald to be an effective starter, and he’d certainly get much more of an opportunity to do that at AAA than in Los Angeles.
My best guess here is that unless he massively turns himself around, and soon, he’s pitched himself off the roster. But that’s hardly the last we’ll see of him, and once the inevitable injuries and poor performances at the big-league level happen he’ll still be a big contributor to the 2010 Dodgers.
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Comment by Chad— March 20, 2010 #
So McDonald’s horrendousness this spring doesn’t bother you at all?
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— March 20, 2010 #
It bothers me that he can’t win a starting role to save his life.
But 5.1 terrible IP by him and a dozen good IP by Ortiz/Ortiz do not knock out the last 5 years of fail from the two of them and the 2.72 ERA out of the pen last year for McDonald.
McDonald looks now about what he looked like at the start of last year. I suppose it’s possible that he’ll be bad all year, but we work in probability, and I wouldn’t bet against him.
Comment by Chad— March 20, 2010 #
I don’t completely disagree with your stance. But if sending him down buys some more time to make a decision on guys like Haeger, Stults or Monasterios while simultaneously giving McDonald a change to get back in line, I can see the logic to it.
Comment by mike scioscias tragic illness— March 20, 2010 #
I would like to believe they already have what they need on those guys. :o
Comment by Chad— March 20, 2010 #
They will demote him though, because they are idiots, and we just NEED to keep one of Weaver/Ortiz/Ortiz.
Comment by Chad— March 20, 2010 #
dont know if JMac has a prom or what,but perhaps AAA along with Elbert is best for the LAD..This way we dont lose Haeger or Stults…
Comment by bluetrain— March 20, 2010 #
and i meant problem. as to to the Ortiz amigos. adios
Comment by bluetrain— March 20, 2010 #
There is no reason to keep McDonald on the big club if he continues to be ineffective the next two weeks. He has options and Haeger, Monasterios, and Stults do not.
One thing we don’t know is whether McDonald’s velocity is down from last season. He DID have spring training issues last year, too, so maybe he’s a slow starter. Still, let him iron out his issues after being optioned to AAA, and give one or more of the three guys who we would otherwise lose a ticket to Opening Day.
Comment by SamAdams— March 20, 2010 #
This story sounds remarkably familiar to what Elbert went through and will be going through…
Comment by RxApple— March 20, 2010 #
This sound remarkably familiar what Elbert went through and will be going through…
Comment by RxApple— March 20, 2010 #
Or they could just keep McDonald/Stults/Haeger/Monasterios and demote Weaver/Ortiz/Ortiz.
Comment by Chad— March 20, 2010 #
I guess the answer is “now”, since he’s been sent to minor league camp.
Comment by mike scioscias tragic illness— March 20, 2010 #
Torre told JMc that his fate was sealed even prior to his blow up six run debacle. It’s probably better for him to get more innings in minor league camp, build up his arm strength, get some starts at AAA, and then be poised for a call up if our #5 starter or middle relief falters.
Comment by SamAdams— March 21, 2010 #
I wouldn’t take “any” of his 5.1 innings into consideration “stat wise”. In 5.1 innings, you are basically talking about one start. Using ERA to judge those 5.1 innings just compounds the mistake. I would put more credence into the “scouts” than the “stats” when looking at such small sample sizes. The mistake of using such small sample sizes won’t matter much when you are comparing three or four slightly above replacement level players – chances are their true talent levels are very similar over both a small and larger sample size.
vr, Xeifrank
Comment by Xeifrank— March 22, 2010 #
[...] but a poor spring first cost him a chance at the chance at the rotation, and then threatened to cost him a spot on the team entirely: Yet at some point, you have to realize that James McDonald is rocking a 20.25 ERA – having [...]
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