Clayton Kershaw’s Overrated
May 5, 2010 at 9:53 am | Posted in Charlie Haeger, Clayton Kershaw, Rick Honeycutt | 32 Comments
Ha, no, not really. He’s actually a 22-year-old who after starting the season off with five consecutive starts not allowing more than three runs, threw out a total stinker yesterday. Hey, he was horrendous last night, and I’m not going to deny that. But that sort of thing happens to every pitcher now and then, and what really got me is the level of panic this raised on the internet.
SI’s Jon Heyman started us off with these two Tweets:
kershaw may be regressing faster than billingsley. not sure. close competition. #howcanbradpennybebetterthanboth?
@dodgerthoughts 1.53 WHIP coming in. not good. i dont blame him tho. just a shame hes not progressing
Tony Jackson chimed in, saying that “Kershaw’s awful outing raises issues”, and even Phil at True Blue LA, a blog which I greatly respect and link to practically every other day, titled his post ”Is Kershaw already declining?” (update: okay, I missed the joke: read here.)
But as usual, Jon Weisman at Dodger Thoughts chimed in as the voice of reason:
The last time Clayton Kershaw started but failed to get past the third inning – June 10, 2009 – this is what happened the rest of the season: 107 innings, 122 baserunners, 123 strikeouts, 1.77 ERA.
And he’s exactly right. It’s one start, people. Yes, it was one unbelievably horrific start, but I defy you to find a pitcher, no matter how great, who hasn’t tossed out a stinker like that from time to time. For example, the very first name that came to mind for me was Roy Halladay, who’s tearing up the NL right now and whom everyone wanted to see the Dodgers get last year. A quick look at his 2009 game log shows you August 24 at home against the Rays, in which he allowed 12 hits and 8 runs. (Granted, he at least made it out of the 2nd inning). Or how about C.C. Sabathia? He allowed 6 earned runs in two of his first four starts last season. Do you think anyone was frightened that they had suddenly lost it? Of course not. It’s a lousy start, and it happens to everyone.
No, what’s happening here is that the absolutely destroyed state of the Dodger rotation has put everyone on edge. Since the back end of the rotation is occupied by unheralded rookie John Ely (for now), and Rule 5 pick Carlos Monasterios (though he had to come in to relieve last night, so who knows), and that’s without even considering how unreliable Chad Billingsley is, if either Kershaw or Hiroki Kuroda has a bad start, people take it as proof that the entire rotation is doomed. And in that, they’re probably right. But it doesn’t mean that a 22-year-old kid who dominated the NL last season, and who got off to a pretty good start this year, is somehow “regressing” or “declining”, based on one start.
If there’s blame to be placed, here… well, I won’t pretend I know how to judge a pitching coach. There’s not really a stat that you can put towards it. But at what point do we start looking at Rick Honeycutt? There was a running joke all spring that whenever he’d go to the mound to give advice, the situation would immediately get worse. He hasn’t been able to fix George Sherrill, Billingsley’s been better but still inconsistent, and overall this is a club with ten pitchers who have ERAs over 5. That’s obviously not all his fault – Cy Young himself couldn’t repair Russ Ortiz, and many of those lines are in very small samples – but if you look at the one starter who is excelling this year, it’s Hiroki Kuroda… who’s 35, always good when healthy, and doesn’t really need Honeycutt’s advice. I’m not saying it’s time to make a move right now… just that if as a coach, you’re judged on the performance of your students, he’s not looking great at the moment.
In slightly better news, lets hear it for the embattled Charlie Haeger, who was probably going to lose his job once Jeff Weaver comes back this weekend. His allowing just one run over four innings saved Joe Torre from having to destroy the entire bullpen, and even if he’s not going to make it back to the rotation, having a guy like that is an invaluable piece out of the pen – especially this year.
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Mike, totally hear you about Honeycutt. I’ve been wondering the same kinds of things myself. It’s like in a political situation– the unfortunate reality is that, when there’s a scandal in a particular department, even if it’s not the fault of the department head, they get the boot because the buck has to stop somewhere. We had a decent staff in ’07 and I remember being pissed off at Rick Honeycutt constantly. I think he needs to go and get some different blood in that dugout mentoring our pitchers. I wonder if Sandy would come in as an interim for a month or something…wishful thinking…
Comment by Harrison— May 5, 2010 #
Best part of the game was Vin’s poignant tribute to Ernie Harwell.
Comment by brooklyndoyer— May 5, 2010 #
Almost as incongruous as someone saying that Kershaw is digressing is blaming one bad start by him on Honeycutt. It’s become fashionable to say that Honeycutt teaches his pitchers to be nibblers, but when these pitchers are walking their opposite number, missing on 3-0 pitches, and hitting batters with two strike counts, how can that be Rick’s fault. A team that’s relying on a pitcher who got released by one of the worst teams in the AL last year, a 22 year-old, an inconsistent 25 year old, a AA Rule 5 pick, a AAA knuckleballer, two Ortizes, and a guy who can’t get a visa, then, yeah right, it’s all the pitching coach’s fault. Send him back to Tennessee.
Comment by SamAdams— May 5, 2010 #
I’m not blaming it all on Honeycutt – I even said I’m not suggesting it’s time for a change. This is literally the first time I’ve ever mentioned him on the blog, and of course the quality of the players Colletti gives him is a big component. It’s just that I’ve never seen anyone say he does a really good job, and it’s just worth mentioning, what is he bringing?
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— May 5, 2010 #
It is totally worth at least questioning Honeycutt. Dave Duncan has been given some crap pithcers over the years and he polishes those turds. What has Honeycutt really done that you can point to?
Comment by Chris— May 5, 2010 #
My issue with Honeycutt is not that I think the pitching staff (esp. Kershaw & Bills) is digressing, but rather, there are no real signs you can point to to say, it’s improved or it is improving. There is no indication that either CK or Bills are any better or any more consistent than they were last year. Kershaw is still walking a lot of guys, and throwing too many pitches. Bills is still battling control (or is it confidence?) issues in the 4th-5th-6th innings. These are exactly the areas these guys struggled in last year. What the hell did they do all offseason? During the spring?
That all said — Honeycutt helped turn Broxton into a “lights out” closer, Kershaw is still just 22 years old, and as has been discussed here at length, Bills probably needs to be sent to Albuquerque for a month to get his act together (Like what happened to guys like Cliff Lee & Roy Halladay in their developmental years)and to remember what playing in AAA was like — except, the team just can’t afford that right now.
Comment by Vegas Blue— May 5, 2010 #
“but if you look at the one starter who is excelling this year, it’s Hiroki Kuroda… who’s 35, always good when healthy, and doesn’t really need Honeycutt’s advice”
Just a guess, but maybe the language barrier is helping here. Perhaps when Honeycutt come out, this is all Kuroda hears: “Blah blah blah throw, blah blah blah strike, blah blah blah batter.” Hiroki politely nods, smiles, and then goes back to work.
Comment by mk— May 5, 2010 #
ha!
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— May 5, 2010 #
Last night was a rough one for sure. Our pitching leaves a lot top be desired, but I really don’t see how placing blame is helping the situation. I love Kersh, him & Weaver are my favorite pitchers. This season is going to be tough and I’m not really what happened to our team. I’m pretty sure that even the bulldog had a bad start or two in his career, so I’m not ready to jump off a building just yet! I love this team, I have since I was a baby and one bad game is one bad game. Our offense didn’t give up at all and made an impressive comeback.
Comment by Joey Casey— May 5, 2010 #
Did you say Weaver is one of your favorite pitchers? Please don’t post here anymore : )
Comment by Steve— May 5, 2010 #
Kershaw will be fine. Santana of the Mets stunk it up pretty badly last week against the Phillies. Isn’t he an “ace?”
Comment by Linda— May 5, 2010 #
It wasn’t just one game, though. His xFIP was around 4.5 before this last game (I can’t recall what it was exactly). Other than his strikeout rate, he seems to pitching more like he did in 2008 than in 2009. His walk rate, home run rate, hits allowed rate, BABIP allowed, average against and slugging against are all up near 2008 levels (his walk rate is actually much higher). He may just be extremely streaky right now (he’s still really young), but I can’t say it isn’t a little disappointing to see more consistency. Hopefully he’ll put together another run like he had last year, but so far this year he’s been playing like his rookie year.
Comment by johnclevenger— May 5, 2010 #
*…disappointing _not_ to see more consistency.
Can’t my computer just auto-correct everything I write!?
Comment by johnclevenger— May 5, 2010 #
Honeycutt has taken spare parts off the scrap heap and spun them into gold for the last two + seasons- that he’s gotten so much out of so many has beens/never weres is basically incredible. I attribute a great deal of last year’s bullpen success to the job he did in resuscitating Weaver and turning Troncoso & Belisario into the workhorses they were. If you want to blame Honeycutt for the bullpen’s issues this year, that’s fine- but make sure to give him proper credit for everything he’s done up till now, just as you do with Kershaw.
Comment by Hitting Gnome— May 5, 2010 #
Agree completely about giving him time.
Have a look at Koufax in ’58 and ’59. He has similar numbers to Kershaw in ’08 and ’09. Actually Kershaw’s ’09 is better than Koufax’s ’59. But the point is here you have a talented lefty who is quite young and still learning. The Dodgers will be patient, that is, if they know what’s good for them. We’ve all seen what he can do when Kershaw is really on. I wouldn’t be surprised if Kershaw turned out to be the dominant lefty Koufax was.
Comment by drh— May 5, 2010 #
Wouldn’t last night have been an excellent time to give Sherrill some work to try to figure out just wtf is wrong with him? It’s not like they were ever going to come back, so why not use the opportunity to get some practice innings in? Oh, wait; I guess it’s better to have your potential number five starters use up their arms.
Comment by Bill Grabarkewitz— May 5, 2010 #
My position is that Rick Honeycutt isn’t doing anything to help, but I can’t blame the control problem on him either.
Before they ever got to Honeycutt, most of the pitchers have had command problems as their weakness prior to this.
Comment by Chad— May 5, 2010 #
Well it’s exactly that, right? I’m certainly not pinning all the problems on him. No one was fixing either Ortiz, or magically making Ely or Monasterios All-Stars, and most pitching coaches wouldn’t have any idea what to do with a knuckleball. But it really doesn’t seem like he’s done all that much to help at all, either.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— May 5, 2010 #
I’m skeptical about the ability of pitching coaches in general to have measurable impacts. Can you think of any clear cut examples?
Comment by johnclevenger— May 5, 2010 #
Well, Dave Duncan is the gold standard. Rick Peterson gets high marks too.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— May 5, 2010 #
FWIW, Phil’s title about Kershaw was tongue-in-cheek. And you’re right, Kershaw is so overrated. ;-)
Comment by Jesse S.— May 5, 2010 #
That’s what I thought at first too, but then the article along with it didn’t really seem that way. I could be wrong, though.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— May 5, 2010 #
Hey Mike thanks for the kinds words but just want to interject about the title. I took all kinds of heat for jumping on Dave Cameron in this piece in which I linked to your Kershaw story. Subsequently the title was a little inside joke, the rest was simply a recap of how crappy he pitched and nothing else.
The game was worrisome, not so much worried about his future.
Comment by Phil Gurnee— May 5, 2010 #
Ah, so it is – i missed the reference. My mistake, I’ll edit it.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— May 5, 2010 #
What’s funny is that Phil’s title joke is not dissimilar to your own title joke on this article.
Comment by David Young TBLA— May 5, 2010 #
We need to get #HeymanFail trending on Twitter. Let’s get to it gentlemen.
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