Let’s Not Forget the Bright Spots
May 7, 2010 at 9:59 am | Posted in Andre Ethier, John Ely | 20 CommentsLet’s face it: this season has been nothing short of a disaster so far. The things we all thought would go wrong (weak starting pitching, lousy bench, existence of Garret Anderson) have indeed gone wrong. But it’s been far more than just that – and Jon Weisman at Dodger Thoughts has an extremely detailed and worthwhile look at exactly this subject – because even the things we thought would go right, like a solid bullpen and decent defense, have gone wrong as well.
So after Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley each got slapped around in the first two games of a disastrous series against the Brewers, if I told you that in the finale you’d be seeing the second career start of unheralded rookie John Ely (who gave up five runs to the Mets in his first start last week) followed by Jonathan Broxton blowing a rare save attempt, you’d probably have been wise to not even turn the game on.
Yet… as bad as things are, there’s still glimmers of hope, most of which can be found wearing #16 in right field, because Andre Ethier is simply outrageous right now. Last season’s run of walkoff hits was fun, but generally considered a statistical oddity, much like how Don Mattingly set the single-season record for grand slams in 1987, and never hit another one again. Yet for all the excitement about the five-tool athleticism of Matt Kemp (when we’re not harrassing him for his celebrity girlfriend or indifferent defense), Ethier’s the one who provides more excitement than any Dodger we’ve seen in years.
After he saved Broxton (and no, I’m not getting on Broxton here. Joe Torre pitches him once a week. What did you expect was going to happen?) with a walkoff grand slam, Ethier’s line is an unreal .371/.440/.722. A .722 slugging percentage! Not that I expect him to keep that up all year, but if he did, that would tie him for the 23rd highest mark in major league history. (And that moves up to 15th highest, if you don’t respect the work of Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa, and Mark McGwire.)
Seriously, look at the NL leaderboard right now for the Triple Crown categories, and remember that this is a league with guys like Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, and Hanley Ramirez:
And that really could be his face on all three of those, because he’s tied with Kelly Johnson for the home run lead, and “Arizona” just comes before “Los Angeles” in alphabetical order.
But what’s really impressive is that – at least over the first month plus – Ethier has solved his biggest problem from previous years, and that was his complete inability to hit lefties:
2006: .842 vs RH, .846 vs LH
2007: .830 vs RH, .816 vs LH
2008: .953 vs RH, .692 vs LH
2009: .960 vs RH, .629 vs LH
Granted, 9 of his 10 homers in 2010 have come against righties, but he’s still got a line of .387/.457/.581 against his fellow southpaws. If he’s truly figured it out, and no longer needs to be strategically kept away from lefties, then he’s ascended from “damn good player” to “legitimate superstar”. It gets better – last year he struck out 116 times against 72 walks, which is still pretty good as far as power hitters go. This year, that’s an even 11 of each, and he’s on pace for 62 homers and 185 RBI. I wouldn’t be too disappointed if he doesn’t quite reach those historic heights, but we could be looking at one of the greatest offensive years in Dodger history right here.
I don’t want to let Ethier’s heroics completely overshadow Ely’s performance, either – taking a scoreless game into the 7th, striking out 7 while walking zero is an amazing performance. (Even if he didn’t get the win, because… well, you know.) This does lead to an interesting situation, though. Most expected that Ely would get sent back to AAA when Jeff Weaver is activated this weekend. But how do you send him down now, after a performance like that, when the rotation is completely in shambles? There’s still a chance that Charlie Haeger gets the boot, but he’s already been named the Saturday starter, and even if he’s not in the rotation his ability to pitch for long stretches out of the bullpen is invaluable to a team like this. You could lose Carlos Monasterios, but he’s been impressive in his short time up.
Could it be that this is finally the end of Ramon Ortiz? A man can dream. Plus, Xavier Paul got on base three times last night and stole a base, while Garret Anderson flew out as a pinch-hitter. With Manny coming back this weekend as well… well, I won’t get my hopes up. Let’s just say, if I could get rid of both members of the “old guy DFA tracker” at the same time, life would be good.
20 Comments »
RSS feed for comments on this post. TrackBack URI
Leave a Reply
How Many McCourt Sins?
MSTI on the web
MSTI Library
Blog at WordPress.com. | Theme: Pool by Borja Fernandez.
Entries and comments feeds.
You pretty much knew Broxton was going to struggle given it was a week ago he was in a game situation and threw 13 pitches.
Broxton could have easily thrown an inning in Tuesdays 5-run loss (were down 8 in 8th) or Wednesday’s 8-run deficit.
Good on you Mike for looking for the silver lining, but from the front office on down, this team has some serious problems.
Comment by wynams— May 7, 2010 #
No doubt. One fun night doesn’t erase the larger issues here, but I’ll take the joy where I can.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— May 7, 2010 #
After Broxton got out of the ^9, they cut to a shot of Sherrill working in the BP. I literally flipped a coin to decide whether or not to turn off the game and hit the sack. Glad I called it right. What an ending.
Comment by brooklyndoyer— May 7, 2010 #
You raise a good point, “Sherrill to DL with a fake injury” is a good possibility for Weaver’s return too.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— May 7, 2010 #
This is a longshot, but just looking at how he’s starting? Would it be out of line to say Ethier could be an MVP Candidate? I mean, an MVP is the guy that carries a team, and it looks to me that Ethier’s turning into a guy that’s doing everything he can to put the team on his back.
Comment by Omer Carrothers— May 7, 2010 #
Amen to that! Ethier is an animal! I have never seen somone so clutch in Dodger Blue.
Given his start, he could have a relatively horrible last 80% of the season and still top last years numbers in HRs and RBIs. I just hope his numbers against lefties hold up throughout the summer and fall.
Comment by Ghost of Ortizii Present— May 7, 2010 #
Maybe I’m just seeing through fatalistic glasses, but the 2010 Dodgers of the first 28 games are crap. They NEED to make some changes now because things aren’t working as-is. The only thing working in our favor, for now, is that it is still early in the season.
Now, today, Neddie & Co. are presented with a fantastic opporunity: boot 2/3 of our serious roster promblems by releasing Anderson and Ortiz and replace those spots with solutions by keeping Ely in the rotation and keeping Paul in the Bigs. My god this seems like a no-brainer. We get younger. If we succeed, Neddie & co. look better for fielding a homegrown team of Dodger talent. If we sputter, well that is no worse than the first 15% of the season and maybe we get to be sellers at the trade deadline and survey some minor league pitchers come September (de la Rosa, Withrow, Lindblom, etc.).
Ely looked GREAT last night. I didn’t see his debut in NYC, but his command last night in LA was awesome. The interesting thing I saw with him was how he changed speeds. He has a good variety of pitches (even as he is “developing” a curveball that looked pretty good last night) at a good variety of speeds. He has two fastballs at two different speeds that look the same to the hitter. To boot, the release point on his changeup looks just like his fastball(s), which must have been why it was so effective last night. Somebody ask Jim Edmonds. Anyway, I know he is not going to shut out everybody every start, but he looks serviceable right now and we need some of these starts every now and again out of the back end of the starting rotation.
And Paul looked GREAT too. Man on a mission to prove he belongs. Speed, singles, doubles, defense, and a good arm out in left that hasn’t been flashed much this season. No brainer.
Now, I have been a Ned fan since he started. He gets a ton of criticism, but he has piloted us to 2 straight NLCS’. Yes, he has made some horrendous deals, but he also turned Milton Bradley into Andre Ethier. But if he is a bonehead about these particular roster decisions and this season goes down the toilet, it may be the tipping point for me. I might have to call for him to be sent out to the glue factory then too…
Comment by Ghost of Ortizii Present— May 7, 2010 #
I don’t disagree. This team has huge problems, and one night doesn’t erase that. I just feel like this is going to be a long year, so we should enjoy the fun parts when we can.
As for the opportunity to lose Ortiz & Anderson at the same time… good LORD do I hope you’re right. It’s without question the right decision. I just can’t see them actually doing it.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— May 7, 2010 #
I liked Garrett in the day, but that day has passed. Same with Ramon.
It’s time for Ned to do something right. Ely was great last night and Paul has been OK in his role…better than the DFA boys, for sure.
Let’s take a look at these kids while there is still time to make up the difference in the standings. Dodgers need people to produce. The kids have done alright.
Not to sound like a broken record, but it’s time for Joe, Ned and the rest of management to step up and do the right thing. Veteran presence has its place, but results are what matters.
Comment by Karl— May 7, 2010 #
Why is bunting anathema to Joe Torre? Obviously it’s great for Ethier to flex with another walkoff, but the game would have been won twice over by then had torre simply made garrett anderson bunt.
similar situation two weeks ago in new york in that double header. dodgers are down 2-0 top of the 7th kuroda pitching very well, the bullpen in shambles, and facing two more games in less than 24 hours. Leadoff man gets on, and he pinch hits for kuroda, pulling him after 6. then of course, double play. then a single. then the bullpen implodes and mets take the game easily. if you had kuroda bunt they are within one run, kuroda still pitching, and sense of confidence.
swinging for the fences reeks of desperation.
this is just in game strategy, to say nothing of personnel. praying for anderson and ortiz’s merciful releases.
Comment by BMcD— May 7, 2010 #
(1) Bunting is usually stupid…and you can’t expect the inning to proceed the same way if the sacrifice had ocurred.
(2) Andre Ethier is awesome.
(3) Matt Kemp remains awesome. Also, his defense looks like it may be getting back on the rails.
(4) Garrett Anderson is terrible. We need to retire and/or burn the #9 jersey and never let anyone use it again.
(5) John Ely did more in 1 game than Juan Pierre did in his Dodger career. Nice trade Ned (p.s.– I still hate you).
(6) Kuo looked devastating last night
(7) Bellasario looked to have excellent movement on his pitches
Clearly, there are several reasons to be skeptical about this season. However, nobody is running away with the division. As long as we’re close — we may be ok in Sept.
Comment by Kenny— May 7, 2010 #
Man you guys are getting my hopes up with the Ortiz/Anderson DFA talk. I’m keeping my fingers crossed!
Comment by Wil— May 7, 2010 #
Re: Andre Ethier’s slugging percentage
“Not that I expect him to keep that up all year, but if he did, that would tie him for the 23rd highest mark in major league history.”
If you don’t think it’s realistic that he’ll hit like that all year, why bother bringing up his potential all-time ranking in MLB history?
Comment by dutchbubba— May 7, 2010 #
Because its awesome?
Comment by Mike Scioscias tragic illness— May 7, 2010 #
I am one who thinks AE does have potential greatness in him. Just a hunch, but there it is. Time will tell.
Comment by mk— May 7, 2010 #
Here is another bright spot Mike. looks like Eli Broad said he is more than willin to buy the Dodgers if Frank sells. . . Eli is the man who is buildin a football stadium in the city of industry to bring back Football to La. he is also a Local Boy and if he succeeds in bringing a team here and buying the Boys In Blue from the idiots running them now i can only assume he will become the Patron Saint of Los Angeles and maybe be made Mayor
Comment by Nolan Ryan Beatdown— May 7, 2010 #
Paul and Ely both to AAA, and the worst two players stay. Veteran status needs to end, like NOW.
Comment by KempKershaw— May 8, 2010 #
I have always been a huge Ethier fan and glad to see him taking it to the next level. Also do believe he got a bad rap on defense last year, impart because both Hudson and Kemp covered so much ground.
What I find both ironic and so sad at the same time is the roster moves being made today and tomorrow. Most people say that X Paul is not the second coming, but it sure seems to me that he earned a chance to be the 5th outfielder/pinch hitter replacing Anderson. His numbers are better, he can play more positions, can pinch run and steal a base, and he is cheaper. He also has the ability to spell Manny. Ely who is also a work in progress, but perhaps it is worth having him learn a bit more at the major league level, put Hager in the bullpen, which needs long relief since our pitchers can’t seem to go long into games and our manager enjoys using every pitcher every game. Easy solution bring up Ely, let him be the 5th starter and perhaps some long relief, or the fourth starter, but ultimately send down Ortiz who is also more expensive. Another advantage for the Ely and Hager moves, should a high quality starter come on the market that we want to pursue, maybe one of these pitchers is who you move.
Comment by louisinsf— May 8, 2010 #
[...] recap, this is what I said yesterday, in advance of either Weaver or Manny being activated: Could it be that this is finally the end of [...]
Pingback by I Don’t Know Why These Things Surprise Me « Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— May 8, 2010 #
[...] of his amazing start after returning from injury. Look at what we had been saying about him in the first week of May… Ethier’s line is an unreal .371/.440/.722. A .722 slugging percentage! Not that I expect [...]
Pingback by MSTI’s 2010 in Review: Right Field « Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— November 1, 2010 #