John Ely Could Be Just What the Dodgers Need
May 12, 2010 at 9:45 am | Posted in Garret Anderson, John Ely | 16 Comments
Okay, let’s not get too excited. John Ely’s been up for just three starts, the first one mediocre, sandwiched around a fake demotion to the minors. He was never seen as a top prospect in the minors, and even in the bigs his fastball is averaging just 87.2 MPH. Right-handers, with incredibly rare exceptions (think Greg Maddux), don’t tend to get by with such low velocity unless they’re bringing something gimmicky to the table like a knuckleball. Even in the minors, he was never a big strikeout guy, whiffing 7.2/9 in AA last year despite going 14-2. If you’re only striking out 7 per 9 in Double-A, that doesn’t tend to translate well to the majors.
Still, on this staff, at this time, Ely may have found a home because of the one thing he’s extremely good at: getting the ball over the plate. Look at the rest of the Dodger staff. Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley have many times the natural “stuff” that Ely does, but each has had their share of control problems – particularly Kershaw, walking an untenable 6.3/9. Then you’ve got (okay, had) Charlie Haeger, who lost his job thanks to walking 7.7/9, and in the bullpen, Ramon Troncoso, Ramon Ortiz, George Sherrill, Ronald Belisario, Jeff Weaver, Russ Ortiz, and Jon Link all have or had BB/9 rates north of 4 (though some clearly in small sample sizes). Even Hiroki Kuroda, known for his control, has seen his walk rate rise from 1.8 last year to 2.7 this year – still good, of course, but not an improvement.
The point is, as a whole the Dodgers have the fifth highest rate of free passes in all of baseball, and that’s only because one of the teams worse than them – the Mets – employs Oliver Perez. So in steps Ely, and in his 18.1 MLB innings, he’s walked just two (yes, the number is actually three, but one was intentional), and all came in that first game in cold, windy New York. In his last two games, he’s struck out thirteen and walked zero. For a team that’s been watching its pitchers put men on base for free all year, this, friends, is a welcome sight, and it’s a large part of how he was able to outduel Dan Haren last night, despite Haren getting his first nine outs via the K. Be sure to temper your expectations, of course – he’s not going to beat guys like Haren every time out, that’s for sure – but on a team dying for any glimmer of pitching hope, he’s providing at least a small spark. Finally – and I promise I won’t harp on this all season – Juan Pierre, whom Ely was traded for along with Jon Link, is hitting .244 with one extra base hit for the White Sox. Where are all the fans who thought trading him was a massive mistake now?
On the other side of the ball, how awesome is it that Andre Ethier can hit two doubles with an RBI, and it’s almost par for the course? His OPS is now up to 1.175, which is just inhuman. But it wasn’t just him; James Loney had four hits, including a homer. Manny got on base four times as well, and Russell Martin, Ronnie Belliard, and even Jamey Carroll all chipped in with two hits. When this offense is humming, it’s a sight to see.
Of course, not every hit is a productive one. Garret Anderson finally got on the board with a single, and even though it was just a grounder to the right side that got through off a pitcher with a 9.00 ERA this year, Joe Torre and Ned Colletti were sure to latch on to it and make all the excuses in the world. Such as…
Before the game:
Joe Torre told reporters today that if Garret Anderson were “sitting in the other dugout, he’d scare me coming off the bench.” (via DodgerThoughts)
and after the game:
“I see a player struggling to adjust to a new role,” general manager Ned Colletti said. “One at-bat five times a week, it’s very tough.”
Said manager Joe Torre: “We’re trying to get him as many at-bats to make it easier on him. I see a timing thing. Is he the same player he was at one time? No. But he comes out of the dugout with a couple men on base and he’ll scare the heck out of me. That’s a big part of having him as a weapon.” (via dodgers.com)
Sigh. How are you making excuses for this guy, while calling out Matt Kemp, and making no mention of the ridiculously bad offseason they put together? (edit: I see Chad at MOKM basically said the exact same thing. That makes it double-true.) Anderson’s been so bad that even Steve Dilbeck at the LA Times blog ran a piece just collecting all the negative comments about him on the internet (I made it, hooray!), yet Torre and Colletti are really going to try to convince us that a 38-year-old guy with 7 hits on the year, hitting .137/.167/.216, and offering no value on defense or on the bases just needs more time? What is it going to take to put this horse out to pasture?
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I think Weisman misquoted Torre. The actual quote was, “When I see GA sitting down at the other end of the dugout, he scares me coming off the bench.”
Comment by brooklyndoyer— May 12, 2010 #
You hit this nail right on the head, referring to Ely. He definitely is showing signs of that “Maddux-like” quality of pitching to the right spots, keeping the ball on the black of the plate, and pitching to “contact,” as they call it. I wish Honeycutt would force Kershaw & Bills to sit down and watch Dallas Braden’s perfect game from the other day. He didn’t try to blow anybody away, he just stayed within himself (cliche TM), kept the Rays off-balance, and kept racking up outs.
However, they both sat there in the dugout last night watching Dan Haren K-ing just about every guy in the lineup over the first three innings — and guess which pitcher got all the love on SportsCenter & Baseball Tonight last night? It sure was NOT John Ely, who notched his first big league W. (I know they don’t count for much around here, but, he earned it last night).
Comment by Vegas Blue— May 12, 2010 #
I could be wrong, but I don’t think MSTI was comparing Maddux and Ely, just that right-handers with a mediocre fastball aren’t usually successful unless they have some kind of gimmick or tremendous out-pitch to do well. Ely is enjoying the spoils of anonymity; once the advanced scouting reports get out and he faces teams for the second or third time, he wont be so lucky. I’m not trying to denigrate Ely’s recent performance because he’s been great, but I think you’re giving him too much credit and not enough to Billingsley and Kershaw, the latter of which threw 8 shutout innings of 2-hit ball last time out.
And by the way, if you’re going to use Braden’s perfect game as an example of good pitching, I think the point should also be made that his perfect game was due in no small part to luck. Yes, he got 27 consecutive hitters out, but he had I believe 7 swings-and-misses, which was the lowest number of any perfect game (and I believe no-hitters as well). He had to rely on his defense, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but it hardly becomes a repeatable skill when all it takes is a couple bounces in the wrong direction to have a big inning on your hands.
Comment by Tom— May 12, 2010 #
I realize he wasn’t comparing Maddux & Ely — I was simply trying to relate how Ely seems to be doing a good job of getting outs by doing something Maddux excelled at. Obviously, it’s a little too early to compare Ely to anybody (especially a future hall-of-famer) — except for maybe Matthew McConaghey.
As for the Braden thing — you make my point for me. I think there are too many times when Kershaw and Bills try to rear-back and blow guys away — because they have the great stuff — and when their control slips, they end up walking a lot of guys. I think Braden’s game is an example of how you can have great success even when you’re not trying to strike out everybody in the lineup.
The bottom line: regardless of talent levels, all three guys are still young and still have a lot to learn.
Comment by Vegas Blue— May 12, 2010 #
Us Mets fans feel your pain with GA. We have his clone in GMJ and our manager sounds just like Torre. Just gotta get GMJ goin.
Comment by Chris— May 12, 2010 #
GA has 7 hits? That’s about 4 more than I thought he had.
Comment by Josh S.— May 12, 2010 #
Maybe someone should accuse GA of sleeping during one of the games.
Comment by EephusBlue— May 12, 2010 #
Or maybe he should take a shower when he’s out of the game while the game is still going.
Comment by Madeleine— May 12, 2010 #
Who is pitching friday if ortiz pitched tuesday?
Comment by ramo— May 12, 2010 #
He only went 0.1 inning, right? I bet they’ll consider that a “throw day” and still let him go on Friday.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— May 12, 2010 #
Should be: Kershaw on regular rest.
Most likely will be: Still Ortiz.
Comment by Josh S.— May 12, 2010 #
ortiz, weaver, belisario, troncoso, and sherrill. game over.
Comment by brooklyndoyer— May 12, 2010 #
maybe kuo if torre is feeling bad about the blowout.
Comment by brooklyndoyer— May 12, 2010 #
Is kuo still alive? No…but seriously where’s kuo?
Comment by Ferndawg— May 12, 2010 #
I would be scared by GA too…scared that I might decline that much when I’m older too. XD
Comment by zzz— May 12, 2010 #
[...] dont’ get me wrong; Ely’s been great. But read that last line of Torre’s quote again. He sure does seem to place a lot of [...]
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