Casey Blake’s Bizarre Splits
May 16, 2010 at 2:46 pm | Posted in Casey Blake, Luis Ayala, Russell Martin | 19 Comments
The Dodgers, as we all know, have been red-hot lately, doing a fantastic job of rescuing a season which looked to be headed directly down the toilet. The bullpen has really turned it around, and even the starting pitching has stabilized nicely, thanks mostly to Clayton Kershaw, John Ely, and Hiroki Kuroda. Even the loss of Rafael Furcal hasn’t sunk the ship, since Jamey Carroll’s been adequate as a fill-in, and as we await the report on Andre Ethier’s finger, we’ve been able to marvel at his his absolute dominance.
Yet there’s one member of the Dodgers who hasn’t been able to enjoy the ride as much as everyone else, and that’s Casey Blake. Blake’s been, on the whole, pretty lousy this season: a .233/.323/.397 line with 3 homers isn’t going to get you very far as a third baseman. His .720 OPS in fact ranks him 20th among MLB 3B, and his .265 True Average tells a similar tale, putting him 22nd. Even his defense, surprisingly good last year (12.0 runs above average per UZR), has slipped below average to -0.9 this year. The standard “small sample size” warnings apply, but it’s hard to ignore that he has six errors in six weeks this year, after ten in six months last year.
But this isn’t about peeing in everyone’s corn flakes by highlighting the one squeaky cog in the machine; it’s about pointing out that the Casey Blake we’ve seen in the first six weeks of 2010 is almost entirely a different player than the one saw in his first year-plus in LA and for years before that in Cleveland.
Consider this…
Blake usually is a notorious quick starter, before tailing off in the second half. For his career, he’s got an .803 OPS with 82 homers in the first half, followed by .765 and 67 in the second. Last year was much the same, with an OPS 50 points higher in the first half. That’s not to say that he couldn’t still do the same this year, just that if he drops 50 points from what he’s at right now, he (and the Dodgers) are going to be in big trouble. The usual hot first half from Blake just isn’t there right now.
Blake usually crushes lefties, while adequately hitting righties. Career, that’s .834 (vs. LHP) and .768 (vs. RHP). In 2009, that OPS was 1.005 (vs. LHP) and .783 (vs. RHP). The difference hasn’t always been that large, but it’s been a pattern of his for years, no different than many right-handed hitters. So far in 2010, he’s hitting righties much as he usually does, at a .780 clip. But his production against lefties has completely fallen off the cliff, hitting just .214/.281/.250 (.531 OPS) with only one extra-base hit.
Blake usually hits far better at night. Here’s a career split which isn’t even close; he has an .829 OPS career during night games, which would make him an All-Star… if he never had to play during the day, when he hits only .227/.304/.376 (.680). Yet this year? Granted, it’s only been 8 day games so far, but he’s killed it in the sunshine this year, hitting all 3 of his homers with a 1.256 OPS, while struggling under the lights with a .579 OPS.
All of which means, we have a guy who will turn 37 this summer and suddenly looks like a completely different player, and not in a good way. You may remember that after his smoking-hot start in 2009 (nine homers and a .938 OPS in the first two months), he struggled the rest of the year, not getting his OPS over .800 in June, July, or August, and though he did in September, he also missed half the month with a strained left hamstring. I’m sure I don’t have to remind you about his brutal postseason, when he hit just .167 without an extra-base hit. Save for some short bursts here and there (two of his three homers this year came in one game against Craig Stammen’s career 5.30 ERA and the Nationals in April), he hasn’t been a consistently solid player in some time.
So what can be done? Short of forcing him to grow back his beard, not much, unfortunately. With Josh Bell traded to Baltimore for George Sherrill (though Bell is struggling with a .276 OBP at AAA Norfolk), there’s no minor league prospect ready to step in. Blake DeWitt would have been the obvious choice, but the last thing you want to do is stunt his second base growth by moving him now. Third base in Albuquerque has been shared by Nick Green (no) and Russell Mitchell (not really a highly thought-of prospect), so there’s not much help here. This is where I ought to throw in that it sure would have been great to have signed Hank Blalock rather than Garret Anderson, but that ship has clearly sailed.
With no able replacements, the Dodgers are somewhat stuck with hoping that Blake turns it around, and hasn’t seen his best days despite his advancing age. You may remember that I wasn’t completely thrilled when he signed this contract, and that was mainly because I didn’t think he required a third guaranteed year. Just based on his surprising career year in 2009, I would have accepted his downturn this year (especially if he was in the role he ought to be, as a 4-corners power bat off the bench, but that’s a different discussion), but if he doesn’t turn it around, 2011 could be ugly.
*******
It figures, then, that Blake would get a day off during a day game today:
#Dodgers lineup: Martin 2 Johnson 9 Loney 3 Kemp 8 Belliard 4 Anderson 7 Green 5 Carroll 6 Billingsley1
I get that you want to give Manny a day off on a day game after a night game, though against a lefty and with Ethier out I might skip that for the day. I get that you want to sit DeWitt against a lefty, and that Furcal’s out, and Blake is struggling. Fine, fine, fine. I just can’t get over the fact that the Los Angeles Dodgers are starting an infield that contains Nick Green, Ronnie Belliard, and Jamey Carroll, all at the same time, plus Garret Anderson and Reed Johnson at the same time in the outfield. That’s just horrendous. And on top of it all, that apparently means that Joe Torre has rescinded Russell Martin’s planned day off, so Martin will now start his 17th consecutive game. And we’re supposed to be shocked he’s not the player he once was? Then when A.J. Ellis finally gets a shot and goes 0-4 because he hasn’t seen real pitching in a month, he’ll get tossed under the bus.
*******
Finally – and this is of no importance whatsoever, but it’s an impending roster move, so i’ll mention it – Dylan Hernandez reports that Luis Ayala has activated the opt-out clause in his contract and must be released if he’s not added to the 25-man roster by 5pm Monday. I laughed as soon as I saw that, because between A) the seeming unwillingness to dump Ramon Ortiz, B) the improved performance of the big-league bullpen, C) the roster crunch the team will soon face when Furcal returns and Charlie Haeger’s rehab stint ends, and finally D) the superior talent to Ayala in AAA like James McDonald and Josh Lindblom, this would seem to be a massive miscalculation on Ayala’s part. I thought that, and I laughed, even before Eric Stephen checks in with this perfect note:
Luis Ayala wins the poor timing award for exercising an out clause: 2 straight blown saves in AAA, and gave up runs in last 3 games.
You may remember Ayala from such times as being DFA’d or cut three times last year, so I suppose “good choices” aren’t exactly what he’s known for. Let’s just say, I’m not exactly holding my breath for him.
19 Comments »
RSS feed for comments on this post. TrackBack URI
Leave a Reply
How Many McCourt Sins?
MSTI on the web
MSTI Library
Blog at WordPress.com. | Theme: Pool by Borja Fernandez.
Entries and comments feeds.
I have heard of players letting their offensive struggles bring down their defensive game, but (despite the 6 errors) I don’t think Blake is doing that. He has been making at least 1 sick play at 3rd per night during our little win streak here. And thank jebus that our whole defense has settled down nicely as well.
What I have never heard of before is a player letting their duck hunting struggles bring down their offensive game. Forget about the ducks, Blake! Bring back the beard!
If you beard him, he will crush.
Comment by Ghost of Ortizii Present— May 16, 2010 #
I think it’s a little too early to write off Blake and, in any event, the other Blake could go to third next year if necessary. Meanwhile, the spring training lineup pulled off a win, and it was Martin who drove in the winner!
Comment by WBB— May 16, 2010 #
Well, I liked having you as an extra source for Dodgers-related insights, but I just can’t handle this much negativity in my life. Several things irk me about the consistent grumblings about this team as reported on this site:
Today:
“even the starting pitching has stabilized nicely, thanks mostly to Clayton Kershaw, John Ely, and Hiroki Kuroda.”
Billingsley now has a 2.64 ERA in his last five starts. He was given a lot of flack for the four run first inning a couple weeks ago, but those runs were undeniably fluke-ish and he was dominant the rest of the game. He deserves as much credit for the team’s turnaround as Andre Ethier.
While Garret Anderson and Ramon Ortiz have not been premier players, you rarely need a fifth outfielder or a long reliever to be dominant. The DFA-meter you have going is either going to showcase two veterans with World Series experience and experience fighting through struggles or it is going to show minor leaguers who are not playing more than a couple of times per week.
I’ll save the essay of ignorantly wrong statements posted on this site and leave you with this: enjoy the season, and go Dodgers. I’ll be taking my readership back over to Jon Weisman.
Comment by Gary— May 16, 2010 #
I’ll give you that I should have included Billingsley, but you can’t possibly be defending Anderson, can you?
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— May 16, 2010 #
Just pointing out that a) his role on the team is far from back breaking, and b) there is more to being a major league player than your slash line. The types of veterans that play until they are 40 find other ways to contribute, such as when Brad Ausmus contributes by mentoring a young catcher or when a Jeff Weaver changes roles to find a niche. GA seems to fill the role of long-in-the-tooth veteran who can show guys how to keep plugging away in good times and bad. Yes, other guys have more talent, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they would be more or less valuable. Now, is Torre over-using him and making his role larger than it should be? Well, that is a different conversation entirely.
Comment by Gary— May 16, 2010 #
Gary-
“Yes, other guys have more talent, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they would be more or less valuable.” –Oh, so they started determining wins and losses by how many years you’ve been in the league? Well, better trade the youngins, they ain’t veterans and thus can’t be useful or valuable.
All Anderson has shown is that talent is pushed aside for veteran suckitude* in the organization all too often.
*Word may have been made up. May have been.*
Comment by KempKershaw— May 17, 2010 #
Well, I was with Gary right up until he started defending the veterans. But seriously MSTI, we’re on a 7-game winning streak and are well on our way to turning around what many were freaking out could be a nightmarish season, so could you please stop pushing the negativity button? I realize it’s not your role to play team cheerleader, but why keep harping on the bad when things are going good right now?
Also, KempKershaw, do you have to sound like such a dick whenever you respond to someone’s comments? I’ve never met you and I don’t know you personally, but reading through your malicious comments makes me want to punch you in the face.
Comment by Tom— May 17, 2010 #
Tom- The feeling is mutual buddy! But if you want to throw down in fisticuffs, fine, I’ve got Jack Johnson and Tom O’Leary waitin’ for you.
Comment by KempKershaw— May 17, 2010 #
Oh, and if you think my comments are “malicious”, grow a fucking spine. Criticism is a part of life man, deal with it. But wait, “negativity”! Negativity, the horror!
Comment by KempKershaw— May 18, 2010 #
As worthless as his performances may have been for the first part of the season lets not forget it is Mid May, and he is an old man worth more than the bat alone. As others have already mentioned on this thread, clubhouse presence is invaluable on a team with such a young core. I am by no means defending Casey’s sub par work with the lumber or his catastrophic lack of facial hair, however his maturity level and veteran presence is something that does the dodgers no harm.
I will add, his defence certainly seemed to be coming around in the last part of that home stand and for the most part the entire road trip.
Comment by MotoMikey— May 16, 2010 #
“pointing out that the Casey Blake we’ve seen in the first six weeks of 2010 is almost entirely a different player than the one saw in his first year-plus in LA”
—Blake’s been on the whole lousy with the Dodgers, horrible two postseasons and a horrible half-season when he was traded in 2008. Really, just a fast start to 2009. But hey, who needs Carlos Santana, right? Someone reassure me, for god’s sake, REASSURE ME!
Comment by KempKershaw— May 17, 2010 #
“Negativity” is the wrong word. What goes on here is critical thinking, detailed analysis, healthy questioning, scientific inquiry. (And, by the way, these are traits sorely lacking and needed in this country right now, on all fronts, but that’s another “adventure in negativity,” for another day.)
This site does not peddle in unsubstantiated opinion, there is always plenty of thoughtful analysis and reasoning included, and that makes all the difference. You can certainly disagree with those reasonings and conclusions, and state your case instead, but using a simple pejorative like “negativity” to describe what goes on here is incorrect. You’ll have to do better than that.
Comment by mk— May 17, 2010 #
Thanks! I call em as I see em. If you want pure negativity, that’s what Dodger Blues is for.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— May 17, 2010 #
[...] When I dissected Blake’s subpar start the other day, I said there wasn’t much that could be done, except for one thing: So what can be done? Short of forcing him to grow back his beard, not much, unfortunately. [...]
Pingback by John Ely Tamed a Grizzly Bear « Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— May 18, 2010 #
You kidding! I love this place, it seems like everything that i’m wondering about the team and why the heck Torre is doing ______ is already posted about here! Why is GA in the middle of the order? 3B will need to be filled by FA or trade eventually because i fear Beard may be going downhill, give him more days off and hope for the best. Why is Martin not being rested? A while back i heard he had already caught as many innings as Mike Piazza ever did….just waiting for you to ask why Torre isn’t using Mono Stereo after good pitching performances.
Comment by DodgersFan323— May 18, 2010 #
[...] Casey Blake’s Bizarre Splits [...]
Pingback by Page not found « Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— May 19, 2010 #
[...] Doesn’t Matter May 22, 2010 at 7:58 pm | In Casey Blake | Leave a Comment It was on May 16 when I examined Casey Blake’s subpar year and jokingly suggested that he grow back the beard, [...]
Pingback by Don’t Tell Me The Beard Doesn’t Matter « Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— May 22, 2010 #
[...] was on May 16 when I examined Casey Blake’s subpar year and jokingly suggested that he grow back the beard, [...]
Pingback by Don’t Tell Me The Beard Doesn’t Matter | Michaels Blog— May 28, 2010 #
[...] Blake, pre-beard: in 34 games, [...]
Pingback by Off Day Fun With Numbers « Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— June 14, 2010 #