2010 May « Mike Scioscia's tragic illness

Clayton Kershaw’s Overrated

May 5, 2010 at 9:53 am | Posted in Charlie Haeger, Clayton Kershaw, Rick Honeycutt | 32 Comments

Ha, no, not really. He’s actually a 22-year-old who after starting the season off with five consecutive starts not allowing more than three runs, threw out a total stinker yesterday. Hey, he was horrendous last night, and I’m not going to deny that. But that sort of thing happens to every pitcher now and then, and what really got me is the level of panic this raised on the internet.

SI’s Jon Heyman started us off with these two Tweets:

kershaw may be regressing faster than billingsley. not sure. close competition. #howcanbradpennybebetterthanboth?

@dodgerthoughts 1.53 WHIP coming in. not good. i dont blame him tho. just a shame hes not progressing

Tony Jackson chimed in, saying that “Kershaw’s awful outing raises issues”, and even Phil at True Blue LA, a blog which I greatly respect and link to practically every other day, titled his post ”Is Kershaw already declining?” (update: okay, I missed the joke: read here.)

But as usual, Jon Weisman at Dodger Thoughts chimed in as the voice of reason:

The last time Clayton Kershaw started but failed to get past the third inning – June 10, 2009 – this is what happened the rest of the season: 107 innings, 122 baserunners, 123 strikeouts, 1.77 ERA.

And he’s exactly right. It’s one start, people. Yes, it was one unbelievably horrific start, but I defy you to find a pitcher, no matter how great, who hasn’t tossed out a stinker like that from time to time. For example, the very first name that came to mind for me was Roy Halladay, who’s tearing up the NL right now and whom everyone wanted to see the Dodgers get last year. A quick look at his 2009 game log shows you August 24 at home against the Rays, in which he allowed 12 hits and 8 runs. (Granted, he at least made it out of the 2nd inning). Or how about C.C. Sabathia? He allowed 6 earned runs in two of his first four starts last season. Do you think anyone was frightened that they had suddenly lost it? Of course not. It’s a lousy start, and it happens to everyone.

No, what’s happening here is that the absolutely destroyed state of the Dodger rotation has put everyone on edge. Since the back end of the rotation is occupied by unheralded rookie John Ely (for now), and Rule 5 pick Carlos Monasterios (though he had to come in to relieve last night, so who knows), and that’s without even considering how unreliable Chad Billingsley is, if either Kershaw or Hiroki Kuroda has a bad start, people take it as proof that the entire rotation is doomed. And in that, they’re probably right. But it doesn’t mean that a 22-year-old kid who dominated the NL last season, and who got off to a pretty good start this year, is somehow “regressing” or “declining”, based on one start.

If there’s blame to be placed, here… well, I won’t pretend I know how to judge a pitching coach. There’s not really a stat that you can put towards it. But at what point do we start looking at Rick Honeycutt? There was a running joke all spring that whenever he’d go to the mound to give advice, the situation would immediately get worse. He hasn’t been able to fix George Sherrill, Billingsley’s been better but still inconsistent, and overall this is a club with ten pitchers who have ERAs over 5. That’s obviously not all his fault – Cy Young himself couldn’t repair Russ Ortiz, and many of those lines are in very small samples – but if you look at the one starter who is excelling this year, it’s Hiroki Kuroda… who’s 35, always good when healthy, and doesn’t really need Honeycutt’s advice. I’m not saying it’s time to make a move right now… just that if as a coach, you’re judged on the performance of your students, he’s not looking great at the moment.

In slightly better news, lets hear it for the embattled Charlie Haeger, who was probably going to lose his job once Jeff Weaver comes back this weekend. His allowing just one run over four innings saved Joe Torre from having to destroy the entire bullpen, and even if he’s not going to make it back to the rotation, having a guy like that is an invaluable piece out of the pen – especially this year.

It’s Like They Just Never Learn

May 4, 2010 at 9:32 am | Posted in Chin-Lung Hu, Nick Green, Rafael Furcal | 16 Comments

It’s not official yet, but Dylan Hernandez is reporting that Rafael Furcal will indeed be headed to the disabled list thanks to his strained left hamstring. This is disappointing, but not entirely unexpected. What’s far more disheartening is that Hernandez also claims that Nick Green will be called up from AAA to take his place, rather than Chin-Lung Hu.

Somehow, I’ve actually written about “Green vs. Hu” several times, initially when the first rumors about Green arriving came early last December:

If you don’t know much about Green, that’s because you shouldn’t. This is a guy who is 31 and has played for five teams in parts of five seasons, almost entirely as a backup. In 2009, he was pressed into service as Boston’s starting shortstop for nearly half the season thanks to a multitude of injuries, and responded with a pretty bad .236/.303/.366 line. That’s not even a case of a guy being exposed due to too much playing time; that mirrors exactly his career line of .239/.307/.352. Even in over 3000 PA appearances in the minors, his OBP is just .324. “Getting on base” is clearly not Nick Green’s strength, no matter where he plays.

“But hey,” you might say. “He’s a shortstop, so if he really can’t hit, he must be a whiz with the glove, right?” You’d say that, and you’d be wrong. For his entire career, he’s a whopping 0.6 fielding runs above average. That’s not horrible, but nor is it an asset.

So please, enlighten me. When you’re trying to come up with backup infielders, paying Nick Green more than you’d have to pay Chin-Lung Hu to be 5 years older, a far inferior fielder, and a likely inferior batter (Hu at least has a .342 OBP in the minors, and at his age still has time to improve) makes sense in what way exactly?

Then when he was actually signed in January and it sounded like he’d make the club, I was still not all that happy about it:

Now I will grant that it’s a minor-league deal, so the money is negligible and the commitment is zero. But Rosenthal paints it as though he will be the backup shortstop, without even mentioning the possibility of Hu. So someone please explain this math problem to me:

Hu is a better fielder than Green.

Hu is younger than Green.

Hu is healthier than Green.

Hu is likely at least as good of a hitter, if not better, than Green.

Hu has at least a slight chance of upside, while Green has none.

Therefore, Green > Hu. Of course it does.

So what’s changed since then? The correct answer is “well, it’s only a month into the season, so unless Green’s already put up 20 homers while Hu broke his leg, that’s not nearly enough time to be more important than the last several years of established history”. But we all know it doesn’t work like that, because if it did we wouldn’t have seen any Ortizii on this squad.

In spring training – and yes, I know that these stats don’t mean much, but don’t pretend they don’t often decide jobs – Hu had a line of .281/.324/.281. Obviously there’s no power there, so it’s not stellar… but it’s also streets ahead of Green’s .139/.324/.167. After camp broke, neither one has been hitting very well in the first month at ABQ - Hu at .227/.261/.242, and Green at .219/.242/.438.

So I can’t pretend that Hu is forcing his way back into the bigs, and it’s quite possible that he’ll never be an acceptable major league hitter. But that’s sort of it, isn’t it? Assuming that Furcal returns from the DL on May 14 when he’s eligible, you’re just looking for a shortstop fill-in/bench infielder for the next 10 games or so. You don’t need or expect any sort of offensive contribution; you just need someone who can play a better shortstop than Jamey Carroll. Now, there should be no question – none, to the point where I don’t even need to break out the stats to back it up - that Hu is a superior defender to Green. But not only that, he outhit him in the spring, and he’s got a better (if still pretty lousy) OBP so far in AAA.

Sometimes you wonder why this team is floundering… and sometimes you wonder if the list of poor decisions should be updated on a daily basis.

So, What’d I Miss?

May 3, 2010 at 11:24 am | Posted in Andre Ethier, Andrew Lambo | 20 Comments

Every time I go away, something amazing happens. In June 2008, I took a weekend off and the Dodgers got no-hit by the Angels… and won. A few weeks later, I went on tour with the band and came back to find that Manny Ramirez and Casey Blake were now wearing Dodger blue.

And this weekend? Andre Ethier is a destroyer of worlds, apparently, hitting 4 homers in the last 3 games. That guy? He’s good. Plus Carlos Monasterios was surpisingly effective in his first big league start, and Blake DeWitt and Xavier Paul really stepped up as well. DeWitt, after a four-hit, two-double game on Sunday, now has his OPS+ up to 110. He’s proven that he’s worth investing more time in, and that’s all you could have hoped for after the first month. Paul had two hits on Sunday, and now has at least one hit in 4 of the 5 games he’s appeared in this season. With Manny set to return this weekend, lets all keep our fingers crossed that Paul sticks while Garret Anderson is sent to the glue farm.

Of course, I suppose it wasn’t all fun and games, since Vicente Padilla won’t be back for at least a month, and top prospect Andrew Lambo got suspended for 50 games for a violation of the drug policy. This isn’t a Manny situation, though, since he’s had marijuana issues before. Whether or not I really think that marijuana is a drug worth getting suspended for aside (it’s certainly not enhancing your play, is it?), if that’s what it was then he’s a world-class idiot.

Finally, anyone who’s ever read this blog knows very well about my distaste for using wins as a stat for pitchers, since they’re about as useful for measuring success as knowing a guy’s horoscope. But last year’s AL Cy Young winner, Zack Greinke, is really going to the extreme on it, and Big League Stew explains why perfectly:

After six starts, Greinke is 0-3. He’s on pace to finish with 214 strikeouts, an 0.98 WHIP, an ERA of 2.27 … and a record of 0-19.

If you’re judging pitchers by wins, Ramon Ortiz (who picked up his first this weekend) is beating Zack Greinke. If that doesn’t tell you all you need to know, nothing will.