In Which We Dissect George Sherrill
June 29, 2010 at 12:26 pm | Posted in George Sherrill, Josh Bell | 26 Comments
Let’s pour one out for Chad Billingsley, who was effective, though hardly electric, in helping the Dodgers shut down the Giants in his return from the DL. With all the talk about Matt Kemp getting benched (he’ll be back tonight) and Joe Torre mishandling Jonathan Broxton, a loss last night, or even just a bad start by Billingsley, could have led to a full-fledged disaster.
But as little as I think of Torre and his bullpen management, there’s one unavoidable truth: some of the main cogs in the bullpen just aren’t as good as it was last year. I’ve already looked into Ramon Troncoso, but an even bigger culprit is George Sherrill. There’s no doubt that Sherrill’s 2010 has been a complete and total train wreck, to the point where Steve Dilbeck in the LA Times is openly campaigning for him to be sent to the minors. I won’t quite call this a Carlos Santana situation, since Josh Bell has just a .307 OBP for Baltimore’s AAA team, but Sherrill is just about a no-doubt non-tender situation this offseason.
How bad has Sherrill been? Part of me actually agrees with Steve Dilbeck.
Anyway, normally when we do these things I’ll give a bit of an intro about how good a player was, how far he’s fallen, and explain how I’m going to try to figure out what’s happened, including presenting the relevant stats.
But in looking at Sherrill’s game log, one thing jumped out at me so clearly that I can’t possibly bury it any further: George Sherrill hasn’t had a strikeout since May 17. That’s more than six weeks ago, ever since he struck out Houston’s Michael Bourn (who struck out 140 times last year) in the 8th inning of a 6-2 Dodger win in Los Angeles. By (a completely unfair) comparison, Clayton Kershaw has 56 strikeouts since Sherrill’s seen his last one. He’s clearly fooling no one. How can you succeed like that?
Well, you can’t – obviously. But before we discuss how bad he’s been in 2010, it’s important to remember that the fall isn’t as big as it seems, because his 2009 was a bit of a mirage. You’d know this already if you’d purchased the 2010 Maple Street Press Dodgers Annual and read my capsule on him, but Sherrill’s sparkling 0.65 ERA as a Dodger obscured some pretty discouraging truths. For example, did you know that after Sherrill left the brutal AL East to join the Dodgers:
- His strikeout rate decreased. Sherrill whiffed 8.49/9 as an Oriole in 2009; upon reaching LA it was just 7.16.
- His walk rate increased. He’d issued free passes to 2.83/9 in Baltimore, but that jumped to 3.58 as a Dodger.
- He got hit a little harder. In Baltimore, line drives were hit against him at a 15.4% clip. In LA, that increased to a career-high 22.7%.
Saved by a timely bit of luck (BABIP in LA dropped to .243) and the sudden and unsustainable ability to keep the ball in the yard (HR/9 rate half of his career average), it’s no surprise that his “real” ERA (by xFIP) as a Dodger last year was 3.98. That’s still far better than this year’s debacle, but it’s also not the startling Bob Gibson-to-Debbie Gibson transformation people think we’re seeing now, and that’s important.
There’s no such tomfoolery with the numbers this year, though. The fact that his ERA (6.75), FIP (6.19), and xFIP (6.55) align so closely show that his struggles this year have nothing to do with luck. Sherrill’s just been that bad.
It’s not that hard to see what’s causing this, either. He’s not throwing as hard (88.3 MPH average on his fastball, lowest of his career). He’s not getting anyone to chase junk out of the zone (swings on just 21.1% of his pitches outside the strike zone, tied for his lowest ever). He’s not avoiding bats on any pitches (85.1% of his pitches are met with contact, and he’s getting just 5.5% swinging strikes, each worst of his career).
So is he hurt? He claims no, despite missing time this season with a bad back. There’s been questions all year about his mechanics, theories that his offseason was too short, and stories about being “cured” by watching Billy Wagner on TV. Obviously, none of it has worked. Maybe it’s all of the above. Or none.
But here’s where I differ with Dilbeck, because I don’t think the minors are the right answer here. First of all, no pitcher has ever gone to Albuquerque to feel better about themselves, but also because his departure would leave the Dodgers with only one lefty in then pen, Hong-Chih Kuo, who can’t be used on consecutive nights. Now, I know you’re thinking that Sherrill is so bad that at this point it doesn’t matter if he throws lefty, righty, or with a cannon attached to his torso, but as long as he’s used in only certain situations, he can still be useful.
Sherrill has been unfathomably terrible against righties this year, allowing them to abuse him at a .405/.509/.714 clip. Despite the homer to Robinson Cano on Sunday – and let’s not forget, Cano’s probably the AL MVP at this point, so there’s not much shame in that – he’s held lefties to .206/.333/.353. I realize this is somewhat grasping at straws here, but unless you’re dying to see Juan Perez or Jack Taschner called up from ABQ, there’s not a lot of viable alternatives.
In the meantime, you pitch Sherrill only against lefties, preferably in low-pressure situations, and you pray. Because there’s not a whole lot else you can do right now.
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I like the George Sherrill with cannon attached to his torso option. Can’t we just try that for a week and see how it goes?
Comment by Wil— June 29, 2010 #
THIS! is genius! I would love to see this.
Comment by EephusBlue— June 29, 2010 #
Trade Matt Kemp for Will Ohman!
Comment by Gary— June 29, 2010 #
Isn’t Mark Sweeney a lefty? We could use his veteran gamer attitude. Let Honeycutt work his magic with Sweeney. Make it happen, Ned!
Comment by The Dude Abides— June 29, 2010 #
“but as long as he’s used in only certain situations, he can still be useful.”
i.e., when other teams send up their GA equivalent to PH in the 6th or 7th, not Cano in the 10th.
Comment by David Young TBLA— June 29, 2010 #
Yeah. Though I don’t know if any of our crappy relievers were going to stop Cano at that point.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— June 29, 2010 #
Boy, it’s a good thing the Dodgers have such an invaluable pitching coach in Honeycutt. He’s exactly the kind of guy who can help in a situation like this.
Seriously, what does this guy do? How many pitchers have we had with mechanical problems that were unsolvable to him? Whenever he goes out to the mound, all I can hear him saying is “Throw strikes.”
Comment by Bill Grabarkewitz— June 29, 2010 #
How can you disagree with an article that uses the word “tomfoolery?”
Good word for this mess.
Comment by BrannaK— June 29, 2010 #
Looks like he is rushing a bit. I don’t see any major mechanical issues other than his timing is off and he is rushing to the plate.
Comment by Dusto— June 29, 2010 #
I guess his outright release can wait as long as he doesn’t ever, ever, ever face another right-hander — otherwise, DFA him
Comment by The Cannon— June 29, 2010 #
Or: this is just the curse of Joe Beimel. A perfectly good lefty out of the pen just to get dumped by Joe Torre and Ned Co-dumbass-letti. Same thing happened to Will Oh-man last year. Sherrill will get traded soon for nothing and be the closer wherever he goes and be lights out. Though he wasn’t really ever that good to begin with. Lots of walks, lots of “phew’s”. This year his “phew’s” have turned into “ugh’s!”
Comment by Dusto— June 29, 2010 #
George Sherrill is making $4.5 million dollars a year. $4.5 million dollars. If any of us had ever performed in our $50-75-100K jobs the way he performs in his, we would have been shown the door. And been replaced with a younger, hungrier guy making much less. Maybe it’s his idea of looking professional, but he doesn’t even look like he gives a shit that he stinks the place up when he’s out there. Guys like Sherrill just need to be gotten rid of, if for no other reason than to give a young guy who works harder and cares more a chance.
Sherrill is a poster boy for the insanity of major league baseball. All that money to pitch, what, 60 innings a year? And then to do it poorly. Maybe if fringe players like Sherrill weren’t so overpaid, there might be more money available to keep players with some talent.
Plus he’s got a really bad look with that rat hanging off his chin.
Comment by SC Dodger— June 29, 2010 #
That’s an excellent point you bring up. This also speaks to the relative insanity of paying more for what people have done in the past instead of what they’re doing for you in the present and possible future.
Comment by Tom— June 29, 2010 #
What i feared, we’re short on lefties so he will have to stay, get it together Brim Reaper! Exorcise your Philthies demons!
Comment by DodgersKings323— June 29, 2010 #
Brent Leach, anyone?
Comment by Tgm17— June 29, 2010 #
I’m disappointed that nobody has commented on my brilliant suggestion of Mark Sweeney as our next LOOGY. He’s a pro’s pro who was the MVP of the 2008 Dodgers as their pinch hitter extraordinaire. Only about 30 or 40 National League pitchers were better hitters than Sweeney that season. He undoubtedly still has a professional haircut, and there is no question that he’s still the scrappy PVL he has always been. You have to believe that since he was so effective at making outs as a lefty hitter, he would know exactly how to get a lefty hitter out if he were pitching. Make it happen, Ned!!!
Comment by The Dude Abides— June 29, 2010 #
It is fitting that Kemp starts with a K….
Comment by John Young— June 29, 2010 #
Nice, all it takes is a couple starts and #Elymania is back! After his 7 inning start, his ERA is now down to 3.62. Take THAT, dissenters!
Comment by Bobby Long— June 30, 2010 #
Not a single strikeout since May 17. You mean Ramon Ortiz has a more recent strikeout than Sherrill? Y’up. May 19. Wow.
Comment by Steven Perry— June 30, 2010 #
The Brim gets a K. There goes my Sweeney idea :(
Comment by The Dude Abides— June 30, 2010 #
heyyyy lookit! Mike you have some magic with this site. You got the Ortizes to go away. Just a matter of time until GA disappears. And you talk about Sherill’s strike outs and Wham! he gets one.(I did hold my breath when he was called out…a little more spice than I like in my 8th inning). Now its time for a Joe torre makes awesome decisions or something and cliff lee joins the dodgers for a bag of baseballs and GA. Make it so!
Comment by EephusBlue— June 30, 2010 #
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