Time to Give Matt Kemp a Break

June 13, 2010 at 12:13 pm | Posted in Joe Torre, John Ely, Matt Kemp, Reed Johnson | 13 Comments

Looking around the internet, you can tell that some people are getting worried about John Ely, who turned in his second mediocre start in a row in which he allowed four earned over five innings last night against the Angels. Not me, though. For as much fun as #ElyMania was, from the very beginning we knew that he wouldn’t keep up quite such an exciting pace. Besides, four earned in five innings is hardly a disaster from the guy who was essentially your tenth starter when the season started, and especially so when they’ve come against the red-hot Braves and a perennially contending American League team. As Joe Torre said, we haven’t seen how Ely responds to struggles yet, and it’s worth giving him every chance to see what happens.

What we should be worried about, however, is Matt Kemp, and specifically Torre’s usage of him. (Credit due here to “EephusBlue”, who asked me this on Twitter). After his third straight 0-4 last night, Kemp is hitless in his last seventeen plate appearances (with two walks). He hasn’t had an extra-base hit since slamming a walk-off homer on June 1, and overall he’s hitting just .195/.277/.317 this month. In fact, since his red-hot start to the season, Kemp’s OPS has dropped each month (.880 to .837 to .544).

Coming as it does in the midst of such a bad streak, it’s fair to wonder if he’s tired, right? Kemp’s played 558 innings in the outfield this year, more than any other outfielder in baseball. Not only has he started all of the Dodgers’ 62 games, the only innings he’s even been able to take a breather for were the 2.2 innings (extra innings, at that) Reed Johnson filled in for as part of a double-switch on April 24th in Washington. That means Kemp has played 99.6% of available innings in 2010, and hasn’t missed a single one in nearly two months.

Kemp isn’t Manny Ramirez, of course. He doesn’t require a day or two off each week, or to worry too much about day games after night games. But is it too much to make sure he gets at least a day off every other month? No need to run what may be your most talented player directly into the ground. (See: Russell Martin).

I’m hardly the world’s biggest Reed Johnson fan, but he’s performed adequately in his few opportunities. Since Manny’s days off are planned so specifically, why not make sure that on a day you know Manny (and Ethier) will be playing, Kemp gets a breather? It’s not like he’s helping you as it is.

Update: Per Eric Stephen of TrueBlueLA, who’s at the park today, I rule:

Dodgers lineup (rest for Kemp): Furcal SS Martin C Ethier RF Manny LF Loney 1B Belliard 3B Johnson CF DeWitt 2B Monasterios P

Going forward, I’ll try to use my powers for good rather than evil. But, no promises.

Kiko Calero’s a Minor League Signing I Can Get Behind

June 11, 2010 at 4:00 pm | Posted in Brent Leach, Kiko Calero | 5 Comments

You probably remember the string of non-roster invites and minor league signings over the winter, most of which caused me nausea. John Koronka? Nick Green? Angel Berroa? It’s not that there was any guaranteed money tied up in these guys, so the invites couldn’t be that disappointing, it’s just that most of them were never any good in the first place, so it seemed like a waste of time. Or worse, Garret Anderson.

Today, the Dodgers signed another mid-30s veteran to a minor league deal, reliever Kiko Calero. The difference is, Calero’s actually worth investing an AAA roster spot in. Over his seven-year career spent with St. Louis, Oakland, and Florida, he’s struck out more than a man per inning (9.6/9) with a 1.196 WHIP and a 3.24 ERA. The fact that his career FIP is nearly identical – 3.29 – shows that he’s done that without a ton of luck, and that he’s performed just about how you’d expect.

Even better, unlike the other guys who hadn’t been good for many years if ever at all, Calero had one of his best seasons in 2009 for the Marlins, striking out 10.4 men per 9 with a sparkling 1.95 ERA in a career-high 60 innings. Now, he wasn’t quite that good, since his BABIP was an unsustainably low .259, leading to a more reasonable but still excellent 2.56 FIP.

“So,” you’re probably asking, “if he’s that good, why was he a free agent willing to take a minor league deal this offseason?” Well, quite simply, it’s because he’s had a history of shoulder injuries, causing teams to be wary of investing in him – not that it stopped him from succeeding last year. He signed a minor league deal with the Mets, and the results weren’t pretty – a 10.59 ERA, though still striking out nearly a batter per inning, before being released last month.

The Mets, as we all know, are desperate for pitching, and if they didn’t think there was anything here worth salvaging, it’s probably not a good sign. That said, this is the perfect kind of player to be signing to a minor league deal; one who’s been successful both throughout his career and as recently as last year. If he goes to ABQ and he’s cooked, well, no harm done. But if he’s anything like the pitcher he was just last season, you might have a find, with the only investing being whatever pennies a pro-rated AAA contract is for half the season, or one session with a Russian mystic. Well done.

*****

In the same dodgers.com article which noted the signing of Calero, Ken Gurnick notes that Calero will be taking the roster spot of Brent Leach, who has been sent back to AA to try to convert into a starting pitcher. I’m not sure if it’s a great idea or not, but Gurnick notes “the club believes with his four-pitch repertoire he might be able to make the switch”, so it’s worth noting.

In Which The Dodgers Enter The World Of the Onion

June 9, 2010 at 11:39 pm | Posted in Uncategorized | 38 Comments

The Dodgers are winning 4-3 in the 4th inning, as Ryan Ludwick just hit a home run off the Hollywood sign, but you’ll forgive me if my focus isn’t on the game right now, because Bill Shaikin of the LA Times just published a story that’s – and I apologize here, because I know my parents read this – so fucking unbelievable that I can’t even believe it’s real.

Look, when I started writing this blog, I knew it wouldn’t always be strictly about baseball, but I guarantee you I never thought I’d write these words:

The Dodgers paid a Russian faith healer at least six figures to send positive feelings from thousand miles away.

Yeah. We’re through the looking glass here, people.

I’m not going to go through this section by section like I’ve done with other pieces – because really, what am I going to do, say “Yep, that’s pretty goddamn messed up” thirty times? – so I encourage you to read the full story. If even 20% of this is true, Bill Shaikin deserves a Pulitzer, an Emmy, and a Tony.

Here’s just a taste…

Shpunt could not transform a bad team into a good one, Cohen said, but his energy could increase the chance of winning by 10% to 15%.

Quick! Someone calculate Vladimir Shpunt’s WARP! By which I of course mean, “Wins over Replacement Psychic”.

On Oct. 2, 2004, Steve Finley capped the first season of McCourt ownership by hitting a walk-off grand slam, clinching the Dodgers’ first playoff spot in eight years.

“The miracle finish … was the result of V energy,” Cohen wrote in an e-mail to Jamie. “Frank was privileged to actually feel the energy.”

“V energy”. V ENERGY. I always thought that the McCourts had no regard for advanced statistics when they fired Paul DePodesta. Looks like I was wrong, but instead of OBP or WARP, they were into V ENERGY. Speaking of DePo…

Cohen also wrote that Shpunt had “diagnosed the disconnects” among Manager Jim Tracy, General Manager Paul DePodesta and the team’s pitchers and catchers.

“Your general manager destroyed last year’s team,” the e-mail read, “and put together a group of players that could not be a team and could not win.”

There’s about forty jokes I could make here, but let’s keep it simple: I don’t want to live in a world where we ended up with Ned Colletti rather than Paul DePodesta because of a RUSSIAN FAITH HEALER’S OPINION.

I mean… jesus. Just read the article. Didn’t think your opinion of the McCourts could get any lower, did ya?

We Have So Much Further To Go

June 9, 2010 at 1:06 pm | Posted in Stephen Strasburg | 18 Comments

A few months back, I wrote an article asking if the more hardcore fans, those who read & write blogs and are interested in advanced statistics, are further out of touch with common fans than we thought. What set me off on that at the time was that despite all of the knowledge that’s come into the game in the post-Moneyball era, you still had a seeming majority of more casual Dodger fans clamoring to replace Manny Ramirez with Juan Pierre. (Before anyone notes that Manny’s been struggling, remember that Pierre is rocking a .606 OPS in Chicago, the lowest of his non-distinguished career, and the Dodgers got John Ely and Jon Link for him.)

What brings me back to this today is the reaction to Stephen Strasburg‘s debut last night, which was jaw-dropping in the sense that he somehow managed to exceed the hype. (And don’t think I didn’t smile when old friend Delwyn Young managed to take him deep.) As high as the anticipation was for Strasburg’s start, it was nothing compared to the rush to start carving out his bust for Cooperstown immediately afterwards, including notes from people I respect like from Fangraphs’ Dave Cameron:

Stephen Strasburg‘s xFIP: -0.50. That’s right – negative zero point five zero.

Obviously it’s just one start, but what Strasburg accomplished under that spotlight was so impressive that no one with a lick of baseball knowledge could possibly say anything bad about it, with ESPN’s Buster Olney actually going so far as to say that he allowed Young’s homer because his change-up was too good. (Uh, yeah. I know.)

No one, that is, except the readers of the New York Daily News:

Really, people? I didn’t expect this to be the 100% landslide it really should have been, but nearly 2/3 of the people responding to this poll think it’s just because the Pirates blow, and not that Strasburg was just that good? I suppose I’m placing too much importance on what is a completely unscientific poll, but still. It’s things like this which make me realize we have so much further to go.

First Place!

June 9, 2010 at 1:15 am | Posted in 1st Place!, Jonathan Broxton | 7 Comments

Ho-hum, just another shutout – the third of June already – and the sixth one-run win in nine June games. That’s how you finally get back to first place in the NL West.

But it’s not just first place, is it? The win, coupled with San Diego’s loss to the Mets, gives the Dodgers the best record in the National League at 35-24, which is good for the third best in baseball behind Tampa Bay and the Yankees, who play in their own space league anyway.

Tonight’s heroes were many. Hiroki Kuroda rebounded from a string of subpar starts to go seven scoreless innings, walking just one while striking out six. Hong-Chih Kuo and Jonathan Broxton continued their utter domination, as Kuo hasn’t allowed an earned run since his first game of the season on April 22 and Broxton stared down the heart of the St. Louis lineup – Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, and Ryan Ludwick. Andre Ethier broke out of his post-DL slump to double twice among his three hits, and Manny Ramirez – despite somehow seeing just nine pitches in four at-bats – doubled in the only run the team would need in the 8th inning.

First place may not last long, since Adam Wainwright‘s no easy task tomorrow (though of course, neither is Clayton Kershaw). But it was only five weeks ago that the club was in last place – in the league, not just the division – and we were pondering just how bad it could get as the starting rotation disintegrated around us. So for tonight, all that matters is first place.

It’s a nice feeling.

Blake DeWitt Makes His Case

June 8, 2010 at 9:56 am | Posted in Blake DeWitt, Carlos Monasterios, Zach Lee | 6 Comments

Just as I was about to write a post saying that while I’m pleased with Blake DeWitt‘s play this year, sooner or later he’s going to have to show some power, he crushes a three-run shot deep into the night, setting in motion a much-needed offensive showing by the Dodgers in a 12-4 win.  DeWitt’s got an .801 OPS since May 1, along with an improving glove, but he hadn’t been able to leave the yard until last night.

What I really found interesting was this section from Tony Jackson’s recap, though:

“I finally had to call him in at one point and tell him, ‘No, you’re not going (to the minor leagues),”‘ Torre said. “And then I said, ‘We’re going to make another move this weekend, and it’s not going to be you then, either.”‘

If this sounds odd to you, it’s because when I wrote a post defending DeWitt a few weeks ago, when there were rumors he may get sent down rather than Nick Green, I said this:

Again: I don’t really think they’d actually do something that stupid, so this is probably a bit premature. Still, you’d have to think the fact that Torre even acknowledged there’s a possibility it could be DeWitt got back to Blake eventually, which is exactly what he doesn’t need.

Couldn’t a conversation saying “you won’t be sent down” have been avoided had Torre not initially put it out there that DeWitt may be sent down? Just sayin’.

******

This is going to require a fuller post in a week or two, but it’s going to get interesting when Vicente Padilla returns. Carlos Monasterios was excellent again last night, earning his third win while somehow striking out zero. I know John Ely wasn’t great his last time out, but he put enough good starts in a row together that I think he’s earned his spot. Monasterios has been surprisingly good for a Rule 5 pick, but he’s also striking out less than 4 per 9 innings. While he’s worth his roster spot, that’s not a recipe for long-term success, so it seems clear to me that he heads back to the long man role when Padilla returns.

******

Hey, even Steve Dilbeck thinks it’s time to give up on Garret Anderson!

******

I don’t pretend to follow the draft all that closely, though I did have it on in the background as I worked last night. That was enough for me to hear Peter Gammons claim that Chase Utley had never been drafted out of high school (he was in fact drafted by the Dodgers, but chose to attend UCLA) and that “there’s some thought that Matt Wieters may have been retarded.” Sure, he meant “in his development” by various factors, but those are the words that came out of his mouth. High entertainment, and that doesn’t even count the “Bud Selig & Harold Reynolds Traveling Road Show”.

So when the Dodgers chose Texas high school righty Zach Lee, it was admittedly the first time I’d heard of him. Yet it didn’t take long for me to learn all I needed to know about him: that he’s a fantastically talented athletic pitcher who’s going to require a truckload of money to skip out on his commitment to play quarterback at LSU. Since the Dodgers aren’t exactly known for having “truckloads of money” right now, except to pay the McCourt children and divorce lawyers with, this seems like a bizarre choice.

Thoughts from people more invested in scouting than I back this up, with the most ominous thought at the bottom…

Fangraphs:

A top quarterback prospect from Texas, it will clearly take a lot ($$$) to sway Lee away from his commitment to Louisiana State University. A team drafting Lee in the first round will have to have a pretty good feel on his signability. Lee has a three pitch repertoire that includes a low-90s fastball, slider, and change-up. His arm slot tends to wander at times. Thanks to his focus on the football field, the right-hander is still raw but he does display solid control for his age. (Marc Hulet)

Tiger Bait Interview (via MOKM):

“At this point I’m leaning a lot more to toward college,” Lee said. “I think the opportunity to be able to go in and possibly compete for a starting job early in football and also to be able to compete and play for the baseball team – both elite programs – is pretty hard to pass up along with getting an education on top of it.”

Keith Law (emphasis mine):

The Los Angeles Dodgers took Zach Lee, described by one draft-room source of mine as “the most unsignable player in the draft,” and I’ve spoken to several other sources who speculated that they may have taken him knowing they couldn’t sign him with the intention of getting the compensatory pick next year when, they hope, they have more money to spend in the draft. Lee has spurned inquiries from several teams and indicated that he’d prefer to go to LSU to play football, although if he does sign, the Dodgers have perhaps the best athlete among pitchers in this draft, a right-hander with an excellent delivery and a chance for three above-average pitches.

Less than 24 hours after the draft, and we’re already speculating that the Dodgers simply decided to punt, thanks to the divorce. Hooray…?

Maybe Charlie Haeger’s Really Hurt

June 7, 2010 at 7:12 pm | Posted in Charlie Haeger, Jon Link, Russell Martin | 7 Comments

We all made jokes when Charlie Haeger went on the DL right after getting zero outs in a start against the Rockies – going so far as to break out the Dr. Nick image – but it’s time to wonder if something is actually going on, since Dylan Hernandez is reporting that he’s headed back to the DL with a sprained big toe, with Jon Link replacing him.

Now, what’s glaring about this is that just yesterday I pointed out that George Sherrill would be returning from the DL tomorrow, “with no obvious candidate to go down.” If this was just a way to protect Haeger from being exposed to waivers rather than coming up with whatever injury sticks, then you’d think they’d wait until tomorrow to do so, right? So if this is really going to be Link up for just tonight’s game before being sent down tomorrow for Sherrill (assuming that’s the plan), then it’s unlikely they’d have made such a move unless Haeger was really too injured to pitch. Or at the very least, they want to make it appear he’s too injured to pitch.

Also of note: Russell Martin is not in tonight’s lineup, with Sunday hero A.J. Ellis getting another shot. As Eric Stephen from TrueBlueLA points out, its news when Martin gets one day off, much less two, so we’ll keep an ear out for a possible issue.

Update: Hernandez confirms Link is only up for tonight, and will go back down for Sherrill tomorrow.

A.J. Ellis Joins the Walk-Off Fun

June 6, 2010 at 8:22 pm | Posted in A.J. Ellis, Garret Anderson | 11 Comments

After 11 innings, John Ely‘s first somewhat disappointing start since his debut, and a spirited discussion about the future of mediocre Dodger catching on Twitter, A.J. Ellis finished off yet another walk-off victory for the Dodgers by singling in Russell Martin for the win.

Perhaps most encouraging was how the Dodger bullpen bounced back from last night’s implosion. After Ely went only five, Justin Miller, Hong-Chih Kuo, Jeff Weaver, Jonathan Broxton, and Ronald Belisario combined for six scoreless (all one apiece, until Belisario went two) to hold down the Braves until the Dodgers could put one on the board, punctuated by Broxton striking out the side with pure gas, including to Jason Heyward for the third out of the 9th.

By the way, Garret Anderson went 0-3 today and is down to an almost unfathomable .146/.170/.225. Meanwhile, AAA outfielders Xavier Paul (2) and Jamie Hoffmann (1) combined for three home runs today. Just sayin’.  Hey, George Sherrill‘s coming off the DL on Tuesday, with no obvious candidate to go down. How bout a nice DFA’ing for our friend Garret?

Ramon Troncoso’s Got More Problems Than Just Joe Torre

June 6, 2010 at 12:17 pm | Posted in Ramon Troncoso | 17 Comments

Any casual fan can see that Ramon Troncoso‘s been a disaster lately, and it’s pretty easy to toss the blame on Joe Torre, who ran him into the ground early in the season thanks in part to the unreliability of the other relievers, and in part because he’s Joe Torre.

But blaming this on Torre is the easy way out, and instead I’m going to make what’s probably an unpopular statement here: Ramon Troncoso was never as good as the public perception of him would make it seem.

A cursory glance at the bottom line would make that seem crazy. “But MSTI,” you complain. “His ERA was a sparkling 2.72 in 2009. This year, it’s up to 5.54! He’s clearly not the same pitcher!” But the thing is, while he’s certainly regressed some since last season, the fall isn’t as large as the ERA would make it seem.

Consider these factors:

1) His 2.72 ERA in 2009 was wildly misleading. It’s not a secret that ERA isn’t always the best indicator of pitching performance, ignorant as it is of defense and ballpark factors, among others. It’s even more unreliable for relievers, since you have to deal with the issues of small sample sizes and inherited runners. There’s a few stats which try to deal with this, but let’s check out xFIP (definition here; basically it says what a pitcher’s ERA “should” be once those other factors are all accounted for). Using xFIP, that fancy 2.72 ERA last season really should have been 4.22. That doesn’t seem quite as nice, does it?

2) He’s actually been regressing each year, not just this year. Check it out, from 2008-10:

xFIP: 2.96, 4.22, 4.90

K/9: 9.00, 5.90, 5.19

BB/9: 2.84, 3.70, 3.46 (okay, this one’s not as bad)

Plus, for someone who’s never had real strikeout stuff and relies on generating grounders…

GB%: 60.8%, 55.1%, 49.4%

FB%: 17.6%, 26.2%, 35.3%

That’s an enormously troubling trend, and the reason that we didn’t see these issues popping up so much last season was mostly because…

3) His home run luck from last year is evening out. Troncoso allowed just 3 homers in 82.2 innings last year, which is outstanding, but somewhat unsustainable. His 0.33 HR/9 rate was far below the major league average of 1.05, and he’s paying for it this year, allowing taters at a 1.73/9 rate.

4) His hot start to 2010 was just a decent start magnified by the disaster around him. At the end of April, Troncoso had allowed 5 earned runs in 13 innings, and struck out 7, about one every other inning. That’s nice enough, but nothing truly outstanding. Yet when you remember that the Dodger bullpen in April was missing Ronald Belisario and Hong-Chih Kuo, featured not one but two Ortizes plus the self-destructing George Sherrill, all following a pre-Ely, Haeger-fueled struggling rotation, that kind of performance looks like Dennis Eckersley, circa 1990.

5) A regression in 2010 wasn’t hard to see coming. While it may seem that 2010 is a suddenly epic disaster, it’s not as huge of a surprise as it may seem. In fact, last November when I sat down to write Troncoso’s player capsule in the Maple Street Press Dodgers Annual, I may have used DERA rather than xFIP, but I basically said that this could very well happen:

Explain this: Ramon Troncoso’s strikeout rate per nine innings dropped from 9.0 in 2008 to just 6.0 in 2009, and he combined that with a rising walk rate – up from 2.8 to 3.7. Even his reputation for being a groundball machine suffered, with his GB/FB rate dropping from 3.44 to 2.10. One might say that’s a recipe for utter disaster, yet Troncoso’s ERA dropped nearly a run and a half from 4.26 to 2.72. How was that possible? Troncoso may not have done a great job of keeping runners off the bases, allowing his WHIP to rise by ten percent, but he did do a better job of not allowing them to score. He improved his strand rate from 67.1% to 77.7%, and almost as important did a great job of keeping the ball in the park, despite the higher flyball rate. Troncoso pitched 42.2 more innings in 2009 than 2008, yet allowed just one more home run. In addition, he also owes a large debt to the Dodger fielders behind him; unlike bullpen colleague Jonathan Broxton, whose DERA (Defense Independent ERA) was more than half a run lower than his actual mark, Troncoso’s DERA of 3.46 is more in line with his other numbers than his 2.72 ERA would have you believe. That’s not to say that Troncoso wasn’t a valuable pitcher in 2009, just to not be surprised by a regression to the mean in 2010.

I’m surprised that the home run rate has jumped as high as it has, but more or less this is exactly what we’ve seen. Now, you may be asking “why has the home run rate jumped that much?”, and while there could be a few reasons, it’s hard to ignore the fact that…

6) You can’t completely absolve Joe Torre. Troncoso’s average fastball velocity has dropped from 92.8 MPH to 92.5 to 90.7 in his three seasons under Torre, and if the overuse hasn’t led to a full-fledged blowout, it seems clear the wear-and-tear has had some effect.

******

So what’s next? Hopefully the homer luck gets back to normal sooner rather than later, which ought to help, or that there is some sort of injury found which would explain the drop in velocity and groundball rates. But until either of those things happen, you’re looking at an overworked arm with declining velocity who’s allowing more flyballs than he ever has, without the stuff to get hitters to swing and miss at them. And that may just be the pitcher that Ramon Troncoso is now, because as much as we all respect him for going out there every day his name was called, he was probably never the top-flight relief arm many of us thought he might be.

All Sorts of Moves

June 4, 2010 at 9:58 am | Posted in Casey Blake, Charlie Haeger, James Loney, Jeff Weaver, Josh Lindblom, Manny Ramirez, Travis Schlichting | 3 Comments

Talk about an active last 24 hours….

1) Travis Schlichting sent down, Charlie Haeger recalled. No surprise here, as we all knew Schlichting was gone as soon as he completed throwing four shutout innings in relief against Arizona on Wednesday. With the extra-inning games depleting the bullpen in the midst of a long stretch without a day off, you had to get a fresh arm up, and having a guy like Haeger makes sense.

Steve Dilbeck still hates it, though:

Almost sounds like they’re going to throw Haeger out there one last time to prove he cannot get it done. Somebody needs more evidence.

Haeger is a stand-up, competitive guy who would be the first to tell you he has pitched miserably. But he’s essentially a trick ball pitcher whose knuckleball hasn’t been tricky.

His time, I think, is running out.

…or maybe his rehab stint was coming to a close, and the Dodgers were forced to activate him or lose him, which is basically what Joe Torre said in that exact same article:

“We activated Haeger more out of necessity than really wanting to at this point,” Torre said. “I would feel a lot better if I was a little surer of his physical well-being, but after [Wednesday’s] game we’re kind of up against it.”

If the Dodgers were trying to “prove he cannot get it done”, wouldn’t you have just DFA’d him and brought up Jon Link? I can’t defend Haeger’s performance thus far, but if his foot injury was really a thing, he deserves a shot as the long man to see if he’s any better, especially in this time of bullpen need.

2) Josh Lindblom moves from the rotation to the bullpen. Chad is going to be thrilled, and I agree with him; Lindblom probably only has the stuff to be a mediocre starter, but he could be a solid reliever. It’s interesting what’s become of the ABQ starting rotation, though. Look what’s happened to the top five from the beginning of the year: McDonald (injured), Ely (promoted), Elbert (still there, but wild), Towers (released), and Lindblom (bullpen). There’s a few good relievers still there, but probably not a lot of help for the starting rotation unless we start getting into Seth Etherton and Tim Corcoran territory.

3) Jeff Weaver and Casey Blake move from the game to the bench. Weaver came into the game but left without throwing a pitch, thanks to a blister. Blake was scratched with back spasms. Neither seems serious.

4) James Loney moves… in exactly the same direction as always. Last winter in the Maple Street Press Dodgers Annual, I wrote that Loney’s 2009 was a season that “only a math major could love”, since he had exactly the same amount of plate appearances (651), homers (13), RBI (90), and steals (7) as he did in 2008. What’s he on pace for in 2010? 12 homers and 96 RBI. He’s like clockwork – though he does somehow already have 7 stolen bases, and I doubt he’s really going to hit his projected total of 21.

5) Manny Ramirez is moving… in completely the wrong direction. Since he returned from the disabled list on May 8, he’s hitting .188/.288/.304, with four extra base hits in almost a month. It’s starting to become worrisome. Everyone loves to yell “steroids!”, of course, but he’s also 38 years old. He’s a huge part of why the Dodger offense is struggling right now.

Tonight, Clayton Kershaw goes against Kenshin Kawakami, who’s having a pretty average season. His ERA is 4.66, his WHIP is 1.321, neither of which are great, but not terrible either. Yet his record is somehow 0-7. Prediction: he goes 6.1 innings, allowing 2 hits and a run.

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