A Weird, Wet, Worrisome Win

And thus ends one of the weirdest days in Dodger history.

On most nights, the out-of-nowhere news that Chad Billingsley was going on the DL approximately an hour before game time would be the only thing worth discussing.

On most nights, the best day of Rafael Furcal‘s Dodger career (five hits, two outstanding defensive plays) would be a great sign of hope that he could be the player we always hoped he’d be – and if not him, we’d be discussing James Loney‘s three doubles among four hits.

On most nights, an 12-0 laugher over the Reds would be more than enough to discuss and celebrate.

And on most nights, a rain delay of two hours and twenty-four minutes would be enough of an oddity that it would merit discussion of its own.

Yet, all I can think about are the beyond perplexing and downright disturbing decisions by Joe Torre. Not to focus on the negative in what was otherwise a fun game, but his choices here could have a far-reaching impact on the future.

Remember, Billingsley’s been on the DL for about six hours, long enough for me to write a post discussing how close the Dodgers are to a full-blown rotation emergency. That means it should be fresh in your mind that above all else, you protect your remaining starters, because if anything happens to any of them, this club is in enormous trouble. So while it was disappointing that Hiroki Kuroda‘s outstanding start was interrupted by the rain on a night you’d hoped he could give you innings, you happily take your 6-0 lead and you toss out a Justin Miller, or a George Sherrill, or a Jeff Weaver, and you run them out there until their arms fall off, knowing that you’ll need your important arms later this week and that Travis Schlichting is on his way to Ohio tomorrow.

What you absolutely do not do, under any circumstances, is run your 35-year-old starter with a history of injuries back to the mound after he’d been down for well over 2.5 hours (the delay was 2:24, but the Dodgers were batting before and after).

So Kuroda went back out for the fifth, and predictably loaded the bases on two hits and a walk. He managed to get out of it without allowing a run, but not before needing 27 pitches to do so and nearly letting the Reds back into the game.

Letting Kuroda go back out, at an enormous risk, bought the Dodgers… well, what, exactly? He pitched just one inning after the delay, so the argument that Torre wanted to save the bullpen for this week’s gauntlet doesn’t fly. No, the most likely scenario is also the most terrifying one: Torre wanted Kuroda to qualify for the win. You know, a “win”, an utterly meaningless statistic, but even less meaningful to a manager who’s only responsibility here should be to get his team out of this game without any major injuries.

It’s almost unspeakably reckless.

******

But wait! There’s more. So Kuroda gets his five innings, leaving with the 6-0 lead on a wet field. Now, it’s time for Miller. Or Weaver. Or Sherrill, of whom the Dodgers own website noted had barely received an opportunity to pitch since returning from the DL. Or hell, I don’t care, A.J. Ellis. Yet who comes in? That’s right, Ramon Troncoso of all people, whose overuse has been such a running joke that Dylan Hernandez has made a cottage industry of the #DrNeilElAttrache tag on Twitter.

Now, it’s not actually the fact that Troncoso came into the game that bothered me, as he hadn’t pitched since Saturday. I still think it was a bad idea, but, fine. No, the problem here is that in the top of the 7th Manny hit a two-run homer, increasing the lead to 8-0, and then the Dodgers proceeded to load the bases against the hapless Micah Owings. Remember, at this point, the Dodgers hadn’t used a single batter off the bench, bizarrely not even replacing Manny for defense with a big lead on a poor field. This is when you bring in Ronnie Belliard or Reed Johnson or Garret Anderson to face Owings.

But Joe Torre left Troncoso in to hit with the bases loaded. Troncoso took a walk and was forced to run the bases. Furcal plated two, and by the end of the frame it was 11-0…

…and Troncoso stayed in to pitch the bottom of the 7th. After already pitching an inning, and running the bases, in a blowout game. Of course he did.

******

Let’s not let all this overshadow the win, which was great for a team that had struggled on offense (to put it mildly) recently, and particularly for Furcal and Loney. It’s just that this one fun game could have major repercussions thanks to some inexplicable decisions. You hope Kuroda doesn’t break down, again. You hope this isn’t just one more nail in the Troncoso coffin. But that’s all you can do – hope – and I’d prefer to hope that the manager of the team wouldn’t be actively contributing to those possibilities.

Besides, Steve Lyons loved the idea to bring Kuroda back in. That’s all the proof I need to know it was a terrible idea.

Let’s Talk Options

With the sky darkening in Cincinnati in the 4th inning, I put this dire thought out on Twitter:

Terrifying thought: what if this game gets rained out before it’s official and there’s a DH tomorrow? Who starts this weekend, Hershisher?

Now that the rain delay is pushing an hour, with Josh Suchon on KABC saying that it’s raining harder than it has all night, and Dylan Hernandez suggesting that play may not resume until 10:45pm eastern – if at all – let’s play devil’s advocate and look at what may truly become the worst-case scenario for the Dodgers:

What happens if this game doesn’t resume and there’s a doubleheader tomorrow?

It’s truly the worst of all possible outcomes, because not only would the stellar shutout that Hiroki Kuroda has going be wiped from the books, Kuroda wouldn’t be available for the do-over tomorrow. Clayton Kershaw would get his normal start, of course, but then what? Jeff Weaver and a bullpen game?

But it’d get worse. With Chad Billingsley going on the DL today, the Dodgers are already forced to keep Carlos Monasterios in the rotation for a start against Boston on Friday. (Oddly enough, the Rule 5er won’t be the least-experienced pitcher, as the Red Sox may give Felix Doubront his major-league debut). The original #5 starter, Charlie Haeger, is pitching  his third inning right now for ABQ. And not a single one of the season-opening AAA rotation is available (Towers released, Ely already up, Lindblom converted to relief, McDonald on the AAA DL, and Elbert away with personal issues).

If there’s a doubleheader tomorrow, you’d have to think something along these lines happens:

Wed — Billingsley to DL, Schlichting up
Wed, Game #1: Kershaw
Wed, Game #2: Weaver and bullpen
Thurs — Schlichting down, Link up
Thursday: Ely
Friday: Monasterios, bullpen, and prayer
Saturday — Link down, Padilla up
Saturday: Padilla
Sunday: Kuroda
Monday: sweet, merciful off-day.

Not exactly the situation you want going into Boston, is it? And that doesn’t even get into this team’s predilection for extra-inning games lately.

Of course, even if this game does come back tonight, it’s still a problem. Kuroda was being counted on to deliver substantial innings, and he was holding up his part. But he almost certainly won’t be re-entering after such a long delay, meaning that Weaver and the rest of the bullpen crew would be responsible for at least five innings tonight. So while I’ve outlined the three possible roster moves we could see, depending on how things go, what else could we see? Could they bite the bullet and DFA Justin Miller? Come up with a phantom injury to whichever reliever pitches the most? And then call up an AAA retread like Juan Perez or Seth Etherton? Activate Haeger? Reach down to AA for Kenley Jansen?

It’s a mess, no matter which way you slice it. But that’s what makes baseball so much fun.

…right?

Chad Billingsley Heads to the DL

Well, this came out of nowhere, and lets let Dylan Hernandez tell the story via Twitter:

Chad Billingsley to the DL with a groin strain.

Billingsley felt something in his last start, according to Torre.

Billingsley underwent an MRI exam on Sunday; no structural damage.

When I first heard Billingsley was going to the DL, my first thought was of course, “damn does Ned Colletti hate having to DFA anybody,” considering that the hot topic lately was who was going to be DFA’d once Vicente Padilla comes back this weekend.

That’s clearly not the case here, though. Regardless of how injured Billingsley is, you screw with fake injuries with guys like Charlie Haeger and Jeff Weaver, not a starting pitcher who – fairly or unfairly – is seen as being somewhat fragile.

I was going to discuss how this would impact the rotation, with Haeger, Scott Elbert, and James McDonald all unavailable for various reasons, but Jon Weisman already has the answer:

Joe Torre says Padilla is ready to go and will be activated. Ely Thursday, Monasterios Friday, Padilla Saturday, Kuroda Sunday

Yes, that means Rule 5 pick Monasterios will be starting in the first game against the Red Sox in Fenway, sure to be an outright circus. On the other hand, ESPN has the Boston starter for Saturday as “undecided”, so the Red Sox may not be in much better shape.

More immediately, there’s no word yet on who is being recalled. One would think that there’s no urgency to do so today as – with the game starting in 20 minutes in Cincinnati – there’s no one who’s going to be able to make it to the park. I’d guess we’re likely to see Jon Link or Travis Schlichting headed back up for the next few days, only to go right back down when Padilla is activated.

Update: Hernandez confirms that it will be Schlichting.

Off-Day Trade Fantasy: Alex Gordon

We all know that if the Dodgers are making a big splash on the trade market this summer (spoiler alert: they won’t be), it’ll be for a starting pitcher, like Roy Oswalt or Cliff Lee. Or at least that’s what fans would like to believe; in reality, it’s far more likely they go the route similar to last summer’s cheap pick-ups of Jon Garland and Vicente Padilla.

But it’s not fun to try to figure out trade ideas for Oswalt and Lee. We’ve been there, and neither will really be on the market for another month, and even when they are they’ll both see so many competitors that it’s impossible to gauge what kind of return it would take for them. No, since today’s an off-day, we’re going to look at a fantasy deal which could fill a hole the Dodgers have both right now and into the future:

I’d love to try to get Alex Gordon from the Royals.

If you don’t know Gordon’s story, here’s a quick recap. The 2nd pick in the 2005 draft, the Nebraska native and Royals fan destroyed AA at 22 in 2006 (29 homers, 1.016 OPS) and made it to the bigs in 2007. At 23 in the bigs, he hardly had a Heyward-esque debut, with a 90 OPS+ and a lousy (137/41) K/BB mark, though he did hit 15 homers and steal 14 bases.

Yet in 2008, Gordon’s offense improved nearly across the board. His OPS+ rose nearly 20 points, to 119. His BB rate nearly doubled from 6.8% to 11.6%, helping his OBP go from a mediocre .314 to a much better .351. He hit one more home run, despite playing 17 fewer games, and over his first two seasons he hit 71 doubles. At 24, with such a jump in production from his first season to his second, he was primed to be the star the Royals had needed for years (though his defensive, admittedly, was subpar).

But then, the bottom began to fall out.

In 2009, Gordon missed three months after undergoing hip surgery after injuring himself sliding into second base at Yankee Stadium in April. Returning in July, the Royals inexplicably sent him to AAA to make room for Kyle Farnsworth, where Gordon crushed the ball (.928 OPS) before returning to the bigs in September. For the year, Gordon had just a .703 OPS, but showed his health in September by going .279/.359/.471 with three homers in 20 games.

Coming off the nice September, one may have thought that 2010 was Gordon’s breakout year. Of course, it’s hard to forget just how incompetent the Royals front office is, as Gordon was given just nine April starts (he’d broken his thumb in spring training, delaying his debut) before being sent down to AAA to play left field. Predictably, Gordon is once again abusing minor-league pitching to the tune of .359/.486/.641, with 10 homers.

Now, I don’t want to get too deep into the tragedy that is the Kansas City Royals on this blog; you can find much more in-depth analysis on that topic elsewhere. But it’s not like the Royals are overflowing with talent elsewhere, right? This is the same team that has the corpse of Scott Podsednik (.674 OPS) playing left field, with Alberto Callaspo (.299 OBP) at third, yet can’t seem to find a spot for a highly-touted prospect who is torching the minors.

No, really, they can’t:

General manager Dayton Moore revealed over the weekend that the Royals have no plans to recall Gordon any time soon, and manager Ned Yost later echoed those comments:

I don’t want to bring Alex up here right now if he’s not going to play. And we’ve got enough outfielders with [Rick] Ankiel coming up, and that’s going to create another player to put in the mix. To me, he’s better off down there playing every day until something opens up.

Agreed, but here’s a craaaaaaaaazy idea: How about bringing Gordon up and playing him?

Podsednik is a 34-year-old corner outfielder with a .340 slugging percentage and Ankiel is a (currently injured) 30-year-old with a putrid .675 OPS in 141 games since the start of last season. Why in the world would a rebuilding team rather give regular playing time to either of them instead of a 26-year-old former No. 2 overall pick who has been crushing Triple-A pitching for the past six weeks?

So far this season 12 different Royals hitters have logged at least 50 plate appearances and Billy Butler is the only one younger than the 26-year-old Gordon. Meanwhile, Gordon and fellow 26-year-old Kila Ka’aihue rank second and third in the PCL in OPS. Perhaps Moore has abandoned all hope of putting together a winner in Kansas City and is instead focusing on building the Triple-A squad into a PCL contender? (via Aaron Gleeman)

Moore wasn’t there when Gordon was drafted, and he’s already proven himself woefully incompetent on many occasions. For whatever reason, Gordon has fallen out of favor in Kansas City, yet he’s proven that he has absolutely nothing else to show in the minors. Still just 26, and with a solid 2008 and September 2009 under his belt, if the Royals can’t use him, someone else certainly can.

Now think about the Dodgers’ situation in the field. There’s no obvious replacement for Manny Ramirez in left field next year,  because as much as I like Xavier Paul, I’m not dying to see him be an every-day player, and Andrew Lambo torpedoed his chances for 2011 with his drug suspension. At third base, while Casey Blake has been a nice player, he’s also reaching the end of the line at age 36, and I certainly wouldn’t be crushed to see him be the four-corners (maybe just infield corners at this point) power bat off the bench next season which the Dodgers haven’t had in years. With Josh Bell off to Baltimore, there’s no obvious internal answer at the hot corner either, barring the unlikely possibility that Blake DeWitt goes back to third.

Whether you want Gordon to be a third baseman or left fielder is up for argument, but somewhat irrelevant here, since the Dodgers could use either. If the Royals don’t want him, certainly they’d be willing to entertain offers on players they do want, right?

The problem with throwing out names for Gordon is that one of the byproducts of KC’s treatment of him is that I have no idea what their valuation of him is. You’d think a 26-year-old former #1 pick with some major league success who’s tearing up the minors would command a large return, yet you’d also think he’d be in the majors on a lousy team.

So… does Gordon interest you? What would you give up for him, considering the idea would be somewhat of a buy-low deal? The Royals, despite their quality minor league system, need help pretty much everywhere, but a team which has no non-Greinke starter with an ERA+ of even 100 could definitely use some starting pitching prospects.

So here’s a thought, and feel free to say it’s too much, too little, or to add your own: James McDonald, Ivan DeJesus, Jr, and a low-minors mid-level arm for Gordon and Brayan Pena. The Royals desperately need a second baseman, with Chris Getz rocking a 35 OPS+ when he’s not getting hurt and Mike Aviles hardly a solid building block, and DeJesus has his supporters but may not have a home in LA. They get McDonald, who could join a rotation that’s actually been forced to use Bruce Chen three times, and the extra arm. The Dodgers pick up the switch-hitting Pena to serve as minor league catching depth, which they have almost none of right now (and despite the Royals reluctance to use him, he’s OPS’d over .800 in each of the last two seasons in the minors).

Gordon could contribute right away as a lefty bat stepping in for both Manny and Blake (with the side benefit of rendering Garret Anderson even less useful) before hopefully claiming one of the two spots as his own going forward, and the Royals get two ready-now prospects who they can add to the team immediately, in place of an Omaha Royal they seem to be done with – plus a third player they can dream on.

There’s zero chance of this happening, of course. But it’s a fun topic for an off-day.

Off-Day Fun With Numbers

After a disappointing weekend sweep at the hands of the Angels, there’s nothing to look forward to today; the Dodgers are off as they fly to Cincinnati to take on the Reds for three games. So it’s a good time to distract ourselves with some interesting statistics, presented with little or no commentary.

Garret Anderson‘s OPS – that’s on-base plus slugging – of .452 is lower than Justin Morneau‘s .460 on-base percentage alone.

After making a career of destroying lefties (.928 career OPS, opposed to .782 vs righties), Matt Kemp is a completely different player this season, hitting better than ever against righties (.847) but flailing against southpaws (.643).

178 hitters have enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title. If Garret Anderson had enough to make that list, he’d be dead last by 65 points.

I don’t even need to link you to how many times we discussed James Loney‘s struggles to hit at Dodger Stadium last season, yet so far this year he’s enjoying being at home (.841) far more than the road (.704).

Russell Martin isn’t really doing any better than last season, but there’s also only nine catchers who have played enough to qualify for the batting title, and he’s fifth in OPS, highlighting the absolute dearth of quality catching.

716 players have stepped to the plate in the bigs this season. Of the 11 who have a lower VORP than Garret Anderson (that’s right, he’s 705th), 3 are not currently on active rosters (Brandon Wood, fake DL trip; Aramis Ramirez, fake DL trip; Kazuo Matsui, released) and 1 just lost his job (Casey Kotchman, benched). The others are either backup catchers (Gerald Laird, Wil Nieves), light-hitting good-fielding infielders (Cesar Izturis, Brendan Harris, Pedro Feliz), or in situations where the teams don’t have any other great alternatives (Jose Lopez, Feliz).  

Results of this winter’s White Sox trade: John Ely, 3.38 ERA in 9 starts with a 41/13 BB/K. Jon Link, 4.15 ERA in 4.1 innings. Juan Pierre, career-worst 59 OPS+ in 272 PA.

Andre Ethier, last calendar year: 145 games (135 starts), .295/.372/.556 (.929 OPS), 31 homers, 108 RBI.

Clayton Kershaw, last calendar year: 32 games (31 starts), 11-6, 184.2 IP, 2.34 ERA, 213/96 K/BB, .194/.301/.263 line against.

Jonathan Broxton, last calendar year: 74 games, 4-2, 37 saves, 6 blown, 74.1 IP, 2.42 ERA, 106/21 K/BB, .212/.269/.282 line against.

Ramon Ortiz, DFA’d weeks ago for incompetence, still has more innings pitched (30.0) than Broxton, arguably the most dominating pitcher on the staff (29.1).

Casey Blake, pre-beard: in 34 games, .233/.323/.397.

Casey Blake, post-beard: in 21 games, .297/.350/.514.

Carlos Santana, first three MLB games: three hits, one double, one homer, two walks and zero strikeouts – and is the only Pirate or Indian starter who didn’t strike out against Stephen Strasburg.