2010 July « Mike Scioscia's tragic illness

Dotel For McDonald & Lambo: The Dodgers Just Got a Lot Older

July 31, 2010 at 5:18 pm | Posted in Andrew Lambo, James McDonald, Octavio Dotel, Ryan Theriot, Ted Lilly | 31 Comments

As you’ve no doubt heard (and mourned about) by now, the Dodgers traded James McDonald and Andrew Lambo to the Pirates for reliever Octavio Dotel. This one really came out of nowhere, and I’ve having a hell of a hard time processing it.

Let’s start with the slight positive outlook here: Dotel could help the bullpen. I looked at him when scouting the reliever market a few weeks ago, and I didn’t hate the idea at the time:

Dotel has a little over $1m coming to him for the rest of the season and a $4.5m mutual option for 2011, but he’s been surprisingly effective for someone who’s been kicking around for so long. I know, the 4.89 ERA doesn’t seem like much, but that’s in large part due to a horrendous April (ER allowed in six games in a row). Since May 1, he’s saved 16 of 19 with a 2.81 ERA and a .184 batting average against, while striking out more than 10 per 9.

The perpetually rebuilding Pirates have All-Star Evan Meek and former Dodger Joel Hanrahan ready to take over in their bullpen, so you wouldn’t think they’d be dying to hold on to the 36-year-old Dotel all that badly.

I have to be honest, I don’t really hate the idea of tossing Dotel in for the late innings, assuming the price was reasonable.

You’ll note that last part – “assuming the price was reasonable” – but more on that in a second. Dotel was useful as a Pirate, and he’s got five straight scoreless outings in which he’s struck out six without a walk. He’s still striking out more than 10 per 9, and he won’t be asked to be the closer in Los Angeles, so if you’re asking me if the bullpen is better now than it was yesterday – yes, I think it is. Dotel along with Jonathan Broxton, Hong-Chih Kuo, & Kenley Jansen (along with maybe Ronald Belisario) could be a pretty decent bullpen.

But the price seems out of whack. Dotel’s okay, but he’s not that good. McDonald was the two-time Dodger minor league pitcher of the year, and he doesn’t turn 26 until after the season. While his attempts at starting in the bigs haven’t been all that successful, he’s proven himself to be a viable arm out of the bullpen. In 48 career games out of the pen, he’s held opponents to a 2.71 ERA while striking out more than twice as many as he walked. Almost as importantly, he’s under team control until after 2015.

And then there’s Andrew Lambo, and let’s get the obvious out of the way first. Yes, he was suspended for 50 games in the minors this year, but no, it wasn’t for steroids or PEDs. It was for marijuana, and while I’m certainly not standing behind his intelligence, let’s not pretend he was cheating or shooting up heroin, either.

There’s a lot to like about Lambo, and a lot to dislike as well. Baseball Prospectus said this about him in their 2010 annual:

This 2007 fourth-rounder came into the year considered to be the best pure hitter in the system thanks to a combination of bat speed and raw strength. He was also the system’s most advanced prospect for his age, reaching Double-A as a 20-year-old, and spending 2009 as the league’s fourth-youngest hitting prospect. Despite a hot start at Chattanooga (.321/.383/.548 in April), Lambo soon went Arctic, batting just .243/.295/.377 the rest of the way as his plate discipline suffered and his power failed to develop. His odd reverse platoon split persisted, as he batted just .241/.299/.388 against righties. Lacking in speed, athleticism, and defensive ability, Lambo will only go so far as his bat takes him, and right now, that appears to be back to Chattanooga.

It’s important to note that he doesn’t even turn 22 until a few weeks from now, and lines like “best pure hitter in the system thanks to a combination of bat speed and raw strength” are quite tasty. Before his suspension this year, he was off to a great start, hitting .342/.390/.566 at AA. He’s now down to .271/.325.420, but it requires a but more digging than that. He obviously started slowly in his return from that layoff, but he’s warming up, with hits in 9 of his last 10 games.

Maybe, as some have noted, the defense isn’t there, and if he’s forced to move to 1B that would obviously hurt his chances, and it’s hard to ignore his trouble staying away from the weed. Still, he’s a 21-year-old who’s shown success at AA, and when you pair him with a 25-year-old who’s shown success at the MLB level, and you trade them for a decent-but-not-great 36-year-old reliever, it’s not hard to see why the future for this team looks bleaker by the day.

ESPN’s Keith Law, by the way, agrees:

The Pirates get an absolute steal of a return on Octavio Dotel by getting two out-of-favor prospects from the Dodgers, a situation where if only one pans out they still see a significant gain.

James MacDonald has a very strong minor league track record despite a fringe-average fastball when he works as a starter, but has a plus changeup and an above-average slow curve that both can miss bats and allow him to work backwards. The Dodgers threw him right into the fire in 2009, he struggled (unsurprisingly), and they gave up on him, which is the Pirates’ good fortune.

Outfielder Andrew Lambo just came off a 50-game suspension for drug use — hey, it doesn’t make him a bad guy — and he’s an indifferent outfielder, but he’s got the potential for an above-average offensive profile. He is strong, with good feel for the bat but the plate discipline of a guy who hasn’t played much and was handled strangely before the suspension. There’s enough potential there given his age (21) and inexperience that the Pirates are right to want to gamble on him.

As for Dotel, he throws mostly fastballs and doesn’t have the plus command you want to see in a guy who’s coming with the same thing four pitches out of five. He’s a fine guy to have in your middle relief corps but no one for whom you want to give up two young players, even if you’ve already given up on them yourself.

Can’t argue with any of that.

******

Here’s what really bothers me, though. In the last few days, the Dodgers have traded James McDonald, Blake DeWitt, Andrew Lambo, Lucas May, Kyle Smit, Elisaul Pimentel, and Brett Wallach.

They’ve acquired Ted Lilly, Ryan Theriot, Scott Podsednik, and Octavio Dotel – basically, a decent but not vital starter, a lousy middle infielder, a mediocre outfielder, and a decent veteran reliever, and all over 30.

Now, most of the baseball community has spent an enormous amount of time lately laughing at the Diamondbacks and Astros for the seemingly meager hauls they pulled in for Dan Haren and Roy Oswalt. You’re telling me that some combination of the players the Dodgers just traded couldn’t have pulled in one of those guys? Alternatively, is there really anyone who wouldn’t have preferred Haren or Oswalt rather than the collection of mediocre, over-30 veterans they just pulled in?

Yet despite all the moves, the offense – the biggest problem – didn’t get improved, and arguably was made worse. That’s supposed to help propel the team to October how, exactly? Really, what a terrible day all around.

******
Back to the Lilly deal for a second, this tweet from the Chicago Sun-Times isn’t going to make you feel better:

Lilly says not ”overly excited about it,” despite looking forward to battling for a playoff spot.

Nor will the fact that urbandictionary.com actually has a name for Theriot’s base-running exploits:

TOOTBLAN. Acronym for Thrown Out On The Basepaths Like A Nincompoop. Baseball statistic invented for Ryan Theriot of the Chicago Cubs, for his penchant for ill-advised steal attempts and general lack of skill running bases.
Theriot’s current TOOTBLAN number is 19.

That was popularized by Cubs blog Wrigleyville23, who really ought to know about such things.

James McDonald & Andrew Lambo Traded For Octavio Dotel

July 31, 2010 at 4:11 pm | Posted in Andrew Lambo, James McDonald, Octavio Dotel | 20 Comments

I’m not even sure what to say about this one. I want to give it a real write-up, but…

Good lord. You’re going to have to give me a moment.

Dodgers Downgrade at 2B To Acquire Unnecessary Pitcher

July 31, 2010 at 2:27 pm | Posted in Blake DeWitt, Ted Lilly | 25 Comments

Let’s break this mess into two pieces…

1) Ted Lilly comes to the Dodgers. In a vacuum, I don’t hate the idea of adding Lilly to your staff. Even though starting pitching is the least of the Dodger problems, Lilly’s an improvement over current #5 starter Carlos Monasterios. Considering Monasterios was a Rule 5 pick, just holding his own has been impressive, but his 3.61 ERA is obscured by his 5.34 FIP and -0.4 WAR; a 4.3 K/9 rate and .264 BABIP just aren’t sustainable.

So is Ted Lilly an improvement there? Sure, why not. He’s overrated – his K rate has dropped three years in a row, his FIP is 4.50, and his velocity has dropped for five years in a row down to about 86 MPH this year, but I’d probably rather trot him out there every 5th day than Monasterios, or even John Ely. I don’t think it’s a huge improvement over Ely, but I won’t argue the point.

That’s not the issue, though. Even if it is an improvement, is it one worth making? Lilly’s the 5th starter. You’ll never convince me he’s better than Kershaw, Billingsley, Kuroda, or Padilla right now, and the problems we’ve seen lately have been caused by non-existent offense and unreliable bullpen work, not poor starting pitching. Other than Ely’s poor last two starts, the most recent outings by #5 guys (Monasterios/James McDonald/Ely before those starts) have been overall a soup of mediocrity, no different than any other team. So if you’re using some of your trade chips, you really ought to be doing it on an area that’s a big problem, not to mildly improve an area that’s not desperately in need of it.

Again, I don’t mind seeing Lilly as a Dodger, but trading anything more than a non-prospect for him makes it completely not worth it. Ted Lilly is not the piece that propels you into October. And since he’s making $12m this year, you know he won’t be offered arbitration, so you can’t even look forward to any draft picks. If you were going to trade for a middling lefty who won’t really help that much this year, it might as well have been for Paul Maholm, who’s at least signed for 2011.

2) Ryan Theriot comes to LA, with Blake DeWitt headed to Chicago. I can’t express my disappointment in this enough, and I don’t even like DeWitt all that much. I think he’s done a decent job, but with absolutely zero power and defense that’s average at best, he’s not really proving himself to be a piece you build around. I just want to repeat that; the Dodgers are giving up someone I’m not an enormous fan of, and this is still a big mistake.

Let’s count the ways!

Theriot is older: DeWitt turns 25 in about three weeks. Theriot turns 31 in December.

Theriot is more expensive: DeWitt’s making the minimum and can’t be a free agent until after 2014. Theriot’s making $2.6m and is eligible for arbitration in 2011 and 2012.

Theriot’s hitting worse this year: DeWitt’s not hitting for much power, but his wOBA is .319 and he’s been worth 1.0 WAR, largely because he’s been doing an okay job at getting on base (.352 OBP). Theriot’s been dreadful – his wOBA is .291 and he’s been a negative value, at -0.1 WAR.

Theriot’s regressing, while DeWitt is improving: Theriot’s OPS the last three seasons come in at .745, .712, & .645. DeWitt’s OPS this year is .723, but check out his monthly OPS numbers: .681, .726, .734, .745. In July, he’s hitting .295/.368/.377. At just 24, those numbers are headed in the right direction.

Theriot’s not even really a fielding improvement: I understand that UZR, in one season, is generally not the most reliable. Keeping that in mind, DeWitt’s ranked at -0.8 runs at 2B in 2010; Theriot is -3.3 at SS and -1.0 at 2B. That’s even though DeWitt was learning a new position this year.

Even Cub fans don’t like Theriot: His sponsored baseball-reference page reads:

The longest streak of starts by a Cub without an extra-base hit since 1992 (Joe Girardi) and the seventh-longest streak since 1920. I hear Milton Bradley is to blame.

So the Dodgers just downgraded their 2B situation to someone who’s older, more expensive, and worse, all to get a 5th starter they don’t really need. And you wonder why I get so negative sometimes here?

******

But wait! There’s more. I’d have hated just DeWitt for Lilly and Theriot. That by itself would be a bad deal. But it’s worse than that, because the Dodgers had to throw in minor league pitchers Kyle Smit & Brett Wallach to complete the deal (the Cubs tossed in $2.5m as well.) I admittedly don’t know a ton about either, but I do know that the 22-year-old Smit is striking out nearly 5 times as many as he’s walked with a 2.35 ERA in the minors, and the 21-year-old Wallach is striking out more than a man per inning at Great Lakes this year. Neither were seen as top prospects (Wallach was #17, Smit #34 in MOKM’s pitcher prospect rankings a few weeks ago) so I’m not crushed that they were dealt, but it’s definitely bothersome that they had to be added to a trade that was bad in the first place. Brett is also Tim Wallach’s son, by the way.

******

Hilarious exchange on MLB Network as the trade was announced. The panel roundly liked the deal, saying things like “Hats off to Ned Colletti”, “This was a deal the Dodgers had to make”, & “this is designed to get Dodgers to postseason.” Then Harold Reynolds, of all people, was the only one who brought the reality:

I’m missing it. Ted Lilly doesn’t take you to the playoffs. I don’t get the trade.

When Harold Reynolds is the only one getting things right, you know there’s a problem.

3.5 Hours to Go…

July 31, 2010 at 12:30 pm | Posted in Manny Ramirez, Ted Lilly | 8 Comments

…and I am terrified. Basically every writer with a Twitter account claims that Ted Lilly to the Dodgers is imminent, with claims that Paul Maholm is headed west only slightly running behind. I made it very clear why I think trading for either of them is a bad idea, so I won’t repeat myself, but: the next few hours are going to be painful.

Regarding Manny, Ken Rosenthal claims that the White Sox are going to take one more shot at him. Rosenthal’s on MLB Network right now, saying that the White Sox originally wanted the Dodgers to pay all but $1m of Manny’s salary and wouldn’t give up any prospects of note, which is hilarious. Jon Heyman says the Dodgers came back with a request of prospect Dayan Viciedo, a 21-year-old Cuban 3B with an .855 OPS at AAA this year.

I’m not totally against the idea of trading Manny if it’s worth it, but I can’t imagine there’s any deal out there that would be. With the way the offense is struggling, the only way this works is if Manny comes back and hits, because you can’t go from Manny to Scott Podsednik and think that’s an equivalent move.

Stay tuned…

Joe Torre Has Completely Checked Out

July 29, 2010 at 10:23 pm | Posted in George Sherrill, Joe Torre | 50 Comments

Oh, I just can’t wait for the inevitable stories to come out of this one, right? Some of our less-attentive friends are going to be jumping allll over George Sherrill for adding yet another failure to his long litany of them in this disastrous season.

Except: no.

First of all, please be sure to note that the two hits Sherrill allowed came on two ground ball singles which found their way through the infield. A few feet in either direction and the plays get made, and no one talks about George Sherrill at all. It’s not like he gave up two liners, hit a guy, and allowed a grand slam, despite what you may read elsewhere.

But this isn’t about George Sherrill, because if we’re talking about “adding yet another failure to his long litany of them in this disastrous season,” then you know we must be talking about Joe Torre’s bizarre usage of the bullpen. First, he yanks Vicente Padilla after just four innings. Padilla wasn’t on top of his game, having thrown 90 pitches, but he’d allowed two runs and struck out five, so he was hardly getting bombed out there. At the time, there were two men on with one out, but still: it was the fourth inning, and bringing in the long-dead Garret Anderson is hardly a marked improvement over Padilla, is it?

So then you’re forced to try to get five innings out of a struggling bullpen. Fortunately, James McDonald contributed two scoreless innings, and Kenley Jansen and Hong-Chih Kuo each allowed a hit in one inning apiece. All fine.

Except when the Dodgers couldn’t score on Heath Bell in the 9th, they went to the bottom of the frame 2-2, and in trotted Sherrill. This is a massive mistake on two levels, first and foremost being that Jonathan Broxton should have entered in that situation. Broxton didn’t pitch yesterday and had thrown just ten pitches the day before; he was rested and available. Of all the silly things that managers do, this is the one that kills me the most: never bringing in their closer in the 9th inning of a tie game on the road. Does Joe not remember watching last weekend when Jerry Manuel gave a game away by doing the exact same thing – letting Oliver Perez blow a game while Francisco Rodriguez sat and watched?

Apparently not, because that’s what Torre did here; he brought in the Dodgers’ best Ollie Perez impersonator, and watched the Padres take the game while Broxton sat in the bullpen. Oh, he’ll give you some line about wanting to wait for a save situation to use Broxton, but that’s the same garbage we’ve been hearing for years: you can’t get a save if the game is already lost.

Secondly, and here’s the part that makes even less sense, George Sherrill has been atrocious all year. You don’t bring him into the 9th inning of a tie game, but you especially don’t bring him in to face a right handed hitter. I’ve said this so many times in recent weeks that I won’t even bother linking to it, but if there’s one way that Sherrill can help the team, it’s in that he can still be effective against lefties. Cover your eyes before I post these splits:

Sherrill vs RHB, 2010: .436/.515/.745
Sherrill vs LHB, 2010: .190/.314/.333

Yet the first batter in the 9th inning was Scott Hairston, a righty. He got a base hit. Lefty Tony Gwynn Jr. sacrificed him to second, and the Padres – who clearly had read the scouting reports – pinch-hit for Everth Cabrera with righty Oscar Salazar.

Before we go further, I just want to drive this point home:

1) The winning run is on second.
2) George Sherrill cannot get righties out.
3) George Sherrill has already allowed a hit to a righty.
4) A righty is at the plate.

At this point, you’d think – you’d pray – that Torre would have put down his Bigelow green tea and decided to do something to, you know, manage the team to a victory. Like bring in Jonathan Broxton, say.

But no. Sherrill remained in the game. Salazar bounced a grounder up the middle. And the Dodgers are further out of 1st place than they’ve been all season. And you wonder why I don’t want to see them trade for a starter. What we really need to see are losing teams who put their managers on the trade block, because that’s where the Dodgers really need an upgrade.

(I’d be remiss, of course, if I didn’t mention that the offense was pitiful once again. They struck out 13 times and managed only three hits, and even one of those was iffy because one of the various Hairstons completely butchered the Anderson stroke to left field. But at least Scott Podsednik looked gritty in going 0-3 with an error!)

One Down, One to Go

July 29, 2010 at 4:19 pm | Posted in Jack Taschner | 7 Comments

Jack Taschner faced six batters as a Dodger, and he retired just one. Shockingly, he’s unemployed, as he was DFA’d just now to make room for Scott Podsednik.

Boy, who could have ever predicted that a guy who got cut by the Pirates and couldn’t keep the ball in the park in AAA would have been a huge failure?

More Proof That The Rotation Isn’t the Problem

July 29, 2010 at 1:18 am | Posted in Hiroki Kuroda, Jack Taschner, Scott Podsednik | 12 Comments

Joe Torre looks bored.

Hiroki Kuroda‘s line of three earned runs over six innings would seem fine enough – it’s technically a “quality start” – and he was actually better than that, bringing a shutout into the 6th inning and retiring 10 in a row at one point. The Padres’ rally in the 6th was started on a mere infield single by Tony Gwynn Jr., a ball on which 95% of major leaguers wouldn’t have beat out. In the 7th, Kuroda allowed just a single to Scott Hairston before being pulled and seeing Jeff Weaver allow a double to add that run onto Kuroda’s record.

Once again, the starting pitching was more than good enough to win, and once again the offense, defense, and bullpen were subpar. Taking the last first, Weaver allowed a single and a double while not getting an out, Travis Schlichting allowed four runners and two runs in his inning of work, and Jack Taschner… well, I still can’t figure out what the hell he’s here for. He entered the game having not retired any of his first three batters in two games as Dodger, and promptly walked his first two tonight. He finally got his first out on his sixth batter, but even that was on a well-hit ball that happened to be directly at Matt Kemp. You’re going to have to make at least one roster move in the next few days (when Scott Podsednik arrives) and probably a second as well (if John Ely comes up to start), and there’s just no way that Taschner should remain – getting rid of him is perhaps even more vital than getting rid of Garret Anderson. In fact, the only reliever who got the job done was George Sherrill, of all people, which should tell you a lot.

Of course, the real story once again is that the offense was nowhere to be found, and while I know the Padres have quite the pitching staff, watching 19 men in a row be retired to end the game isn’t acceptable. Rafael Furcal, Andre Ethier, Casey Blake, James Loney, and Russell Martin combined to go 0-for-16 (though Furcal drew a walk), and if that’s going to happen, you can make all the trades for mediocre 4th outfielders you want and it’s not going to change a goddamn thing. The guys who are here, right now, have to start hitting. You hope Manny comes back healthy, and you hope he gets hot at the right time, but it certainly can’t be just him.If Ethier doesn’t start to look something like he did at the beginning of the year, if Blake doesn’t stop resembling a bearded corpse, if Martin can’t stop looking like the new Jason Kendall… well, then none of the rest of it really matters, does it?

******

On Podsednik: my earlier post, as you probably saw, was filed from the upper deck at CitiField, so it was very much a stream-of-consciousness response. After some thought, I’ve tempered my response a bit – “horrendous” was probably a bit much. Lucas May’s defense was probably never going to allow him to be a fulltime catcher, and Pimentel, while intriguing, was far from a top prospect.

Still, without May the catching depth is atrocious. After A.J. Ellis, you’re looking at… well Tony Delmonico would be next, but he broke his wrist recently, and anyone else worth mentioning is at least three years away. And while I do think that Podsednik is a nice complimentary piece for this team due to their current situation, it’s still hard for me to be all that thrilled about giving up potentially useful players for a guy who’s not an impact player and has been released twice in the last three years.

That being the case, Podsednik does come in on a nice hot streak, having hit in 23 of his last 24 games, so there’s the chance that he’ll be able to give the team a jump start. Really, we’ll see what how much value the trade really brings to the roster at about lunchtime tomorrow. If it’s Anderson being shipped out, then it’s a big win. If it’s Xavier Paul (who, even though he hasn’t been great, is miles better than Anderson), then the excitement is tempered a bit.

Scott Podsednik Heads West

July 28, 2010 at 9:26 pm | Posted in Scott Podsednik | 18 Comments

Let’s play the always fun game, “can Mike get this post up before his phone dies while sitting at CitiField watching the Mets getting crushed.” Reports are that the Dodgers have traded two prospects for Royals OF Scott Podsednik.

In a vacuum, I don’t hate this as much as you’d think. He’s had two decently okay years for KC, and he’s an asset on the bases. Assuming that this expedites the release of Garret Anderson, its a plus. Its not a game changer, but its an improvement.

Of course, it all hinges on who the minor leaguers are. Its impossible to judge this trade until then, so consider this a conditional “okay deal”.

Update: E.Pimentel & Lucas May. I update my position to “huge fail”. Pimentel, as I remember, was having a breakout year, and May was raking in ABQ. The catching depth is now razor thin. Horrendous.

Update 2: I was advised to look up pictures of Podsednik’s wife. I hereby withdraw any and all objections to this trade.

Why the Dodgers Shouldn’t Trade For a Starter Before the Deadline

July 28, 2010 at 10:46 am | Posted in Chad Billingsley, Clayton Kershaw, Hiroki Kuroda, John Ely, Vicente Padilla | 33 Comments

Chad Billingsley, in case you haven’t noticed, hasn’t allowed a run in either of his last two starts. Clayton Kershaw has a 2.34 ERA in 15 starts since his early-May Milwaukee disaster, and has the 5th highest K/9 rate and 11th lowest FIP in all of baseball. Vicente Padilla hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in any of his last six starts, with a 34/8 K/BB rate in that time. Hiroki Kuroda has allowed one run in his last two starts, has held opponents scoreless three times in his last eight starts, and has the lowest FIP and highest K/9 of his career.

The starting staff overall – including the failed starts of Charlie Haeger and everyone else – is fifth in baseball in FIP. Kershaw, Kuroda, and Billingsley all rank in the top 24 in FIP (only two other teams, the Cardinals and White Sox, have even two men on that list) and Padilla’s probably pitching better than any of them right now. Remind me again why there’s this dire need for a starting pitcher we keep hearing about?

Sure, if you can get Roy Oswalt to form a ridiculous 1-2 with Kershaw, you do it. Absolutely. But I’ve been saying it for months: there’s no chance of getting Oswalt. Between his contract, the tight Dodger payroll, his no-trade clause, the silly demands coming from Houston – well, you know all the reasons. It’s just not going to happen. With Cliff Lee and Dan Haren already gone, what that means is that any pitcher we’ve heard in the news (Paul Maholm, etc.) isn’t going to be an upgrade on the current foursome. They’ll be the #5 starter. While I don’t disagree that getting someone better than Carlos Monasterios would be nice, it’s just not worth giving up anything of huge value for.

Now, I know what you’re thinking. “Come on, MSTI. This crazy hot streak is nice, but it’s naive to think that all four of these guys are going to pitch like this for the rest of the year.” And you’re right. They won’t. But that doesn’t make anyone better appear on the market, though, does it? So massively overpaying for someone like Maholm or Ted Lilly who’d be your last starter makes no sense – especially not with the other needs this team has. (More on that in a second.)

That said, I’m not really comfortable with tossing out Monasterios for the rest of the season, as surprisingly decent as he’s been. But you have to remember the limited impact a 5th starter is going to have. With six off-days in the next two months, there’s several opportunities to skip that starter.

Besides, the best option right now is probably an internal one. John Ely has pitched twice since being sent to ABQ, and he’s gone seven innings each time, allowing a total of five runs with a 9/3 K/BB ratio. Before you groan and say that he flamed out, remember that that isn’t really true. Though his final two starts were indeed poor, don’t forget that the two starts immediately preceding them were excellent – back-to-back outings of 7 IP, 1 ER on the road in San Francisco and Anaheim. He’s the obvious call to get the start on Saturday while Kershaw serves his suspension, and it’s worth noting that his 3.79 FIP is exactly the same that Chris Carpenter has for 2010, and lower than guys like Haren, Matt Cain, Phil Hughes, and Mark Buehrle. I’m not suggesting he’s in the same class as they are – but he does deserve another chance to round out the rotation before prospects are dumped for a guy who brings nothing else but creamy veteran goodness, and yes, I am talking about the hilarious rumors that the Pirates want Dee Gordon as part of the return for Maholm.

In addition, don’t forget also that Saturday isn’t really the trading deadline. We saw this happen last year when the Dodgers were able to pick up Jon Garland in August, and with so few teams willing to take on money this year, you’re likely to see a lot more guys make it through waivers. Trades will still happen in August, and if the Dodgers do feel that they need to make a deal for depth, then the prices are likely to be much lower in August. It’s not that I mind the idea of trading for a back-end starting pitcher, because of course I’d prefer Lilly to Ely. I just don’t think it’s worth giving up all that much for.

Besides, the Dodgers have bigger needs than a starting pitcher right now, and that’s the holes in the bullpen, the fact that the offense is stagnant, and the horrendous bench.

You can’t do too much about the offense; either Andre Ethier, Casey Blake and the like are going to start hitting, and Manny’s going to come back healthy and productive, or they’re not going to make the playoffs. Simple as that, because you’re just not going to trade for replacements for those guys – nor, in most cases, should you.

As for the bullpen, we’ve seen the dangers of trying to trade for relief help first-hand, and this year in particular prices seem sky-high. While I would like to see some reinforcements there, signs are at least pointing the right way. Kenley Jansen looks to be a find (I know, I know, just two games) and reports that Ronald Belisario is working out again at Dodger Stadium is a step in the right direction. Sure, I’d like to see Scott Downs join the crew, but not at the prices being tossed around (rumors have Toronto asking the Yankees for Joba Chamberlain or Jesus Montero, and the Red Sox for Casey Kelly or Jose Iglesias).

No, if there’s one area the Dodgers should look to improve at, it’s the bench. Jamey Carroll‘s been great, and Brad Ausmus is what is he is. Really, they could improve themselves right now by simply cutting Garret Anderson (who, by one measure, achieved the title of “Worst Season in LA Dodger history” yesterday, but that deserves a post of its own) and Ronnie Belliard, who have each been abysmal. Simply replacing them with, say, Jay Gibbons and John Lindsey would be a huge boon. (No, Juan Castro doesn’t count, though do expect to see him in September.)

But since we know that’s not going to happen, this is the place to make minor trades. Go ahead, go get Scott Podsednik (assuming the price is right), who could replace Anderson as the lefty outfield bat and could be valuable on the bases and provide depth in LF and CF. Go trade for a Russell Branyan, who would provide some power off the bench and add a real backup at 1B and an emergency option in LF or RF, or see if you can buy low on a Ty Wigginton, who can bring some power and play 1B, 2B, 3B, or LF.

Just don’t freak out if the Dodgers don’t get a starter by Saturday. It’s not their biggest need. (Now watch the starters all get knocked out in the 4th inning for the rest of the week.)

Kershaw and Jansen Deliver

July 25, 2010 at 10:10 pm | Posted in Clayton Kershaw, Kenley Jansen | 26 Comments

Hey, what do you know, we FINALLY win a series! Which, I suppose, is a step up from writing “hey, what do you know, we FINALLY win a game!,” which was apt on Wednesday. But, anyways…

Clayton Kershaw continued his pitching ascension, throwing 8 scoreless innings, while giving up 7 hits, walking 1 and striking out 3. Kershaw was excellent and now has a record of 10-5, while lowering his ERA to 2.96 which puts him 10th in the NL, while his 138 strikeouts rank 5th. The great thing about Kershaw, though, is that, while he still does rank 4th in walks (56), his 4.0 BB/9 is at a career low, down from 4.8, last year. So good for you… Claw. On a side note, does anyone remember him ever being called “The Claw?” Because when I looked at his Baseball Reference page, it was listed as a nickname. I just don’t remember it. But back to the game…

We also give some MSTI props to Casey Blake’s glove and bat today, the former for saving a run with a great play at third and the latter for getting on base to score the go-ahead run on a clutch double from Russell Martin in the bottom of the 8th, so props to both men.

But, of course, the other big story from today’s game is Kenley Jansen. After striking out two and throwing a scoreless inning in his debut on Saturday, Jansen came in to protect a 1-0 lead, as Broxton, Kuo, and Weaver were unavailable. It was a ballsy move by Torre, to be sure, but a good one, as Jansen delivered and struck out two of the three batters he faced to pick up his first career save. TrueBlueLA points out that Jansen becomes just the 8th Los Angeles Dodger to pick up a save in his first two games, the most recent one being Alejandro Pena in 1981.

As most have likely heard, Jansen, 22, is pretty new to this whole pitching thing, barely converting to pitching around this time last year after catching. However, in his first full year pitching in the minors, Jansen has impressed, putting together a 1.50 ERA in Inland Empire, and a 1.67 ERA in AA Chattanooga. While Jansen did have some control issues in AA (5.7 BB/9), he also boasted an impressive 16.7 K/9 rate.

Of course, while it is premature after only two games to gauge the future of a kid who’s only been pitching a year, Jansen’s climb through the ranks has been incredibly impressive. Even better, he seems to have really good stuff, with a lively fastball that stays in the mid-high 90s, as well as a very good slider and change up.

If he can keep this up, then he provides an incredible boost to the bullpen, as well as finally giving me a Dodger from Curacao that I can like. Imagine Jansen, Kuo, and Broxton to finish out games? Nasty.

Good work, kid. And now, off to SD we go for a big series against the Padres. It will be a battle, to be sure, but after the horrid 6 game stretch to begin the second half of the season, the Dodgers seem to be slowly stabilizing (now 4-6 post All-Star Break), thanks to some fantastic starting pitching. Should be fun… or perhaps a freaking nightmare, but hopefully fun…

- Vin