Why the Dodgers Shouldn’t Trade For a Starter Before the Deadline
July 28, 2010 at 10:46 am | Posted in Chad Billingsley, Clayton Kershaw, Hiroki Kuroda, John Ely, Vicente Padilla | 33 Comments
Chad Billingsley, in case you haven’t noticed, hasn’t allowed a run in either of his last two starts. Clayton Kershaw has a 2.34 ERA in 15 starts since his early-May Milwaukee disaster, and has the 5th highest K/9 rate and 11th lowest FIP in all of baseball. Vicente Padilla hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in any of his last six starts, with a 34/8 K/BB rate in that time. Hiroki Kuroda has allowed one run in his last two starts, has held opponents scoreless three times in his last eight starts, and has the lowest FIP and highest K/9 of his career.
The starting staff overall – including the failed starts of Charlie Haeger and everyone else – is fifth in baseball in FIP. Kershaw, Kuroda, and Billingsley all rank in the top 24 in FIP (only two other teams, the Cardinals and White Sox, have even two men on that list) and Padilla’s probably pitching better than any of them right now. Remind me again why there’s this dire need for a starting pitcher we keep hearing about?
Sure, if you can get Roy Oswalt to form a ridiculous 1-2 with Kershaw, you do it. Absolutely. But I’ve been saying it for months: there’s no chance of getting Oswalt. Between his contract, the tight Dodger payroll, his no-trade clause, the silly demands coming from Houston – well, you know all the reasons. It’s just not going to happen. With Cliff Lee and Dan Haren already gone, what that means is that any pitcher we’ve heard in the news (Paul Maholm, etc.) isn’t going to be an upgrade on the current foursome. They’ll be the #5 starter. While I don’t disagree that getting someone better than Carlos Monasterios would be nice, it’s just not worth giving up anything of huge value for.
Now, I know what you’re thinking. “Come on, MSTI. This crazy hot streak is nice, but it’s naive to think that all four of these guys are going to pitch like this for the rest of the year.” And you’re right. They won’t. But that doesn’t make anyone better appear on the market, though, does it? So massively overpaying for someone like Maholm or Ted Lilly who’d be your last starter makes no sense – especially not with the other needs this team has. (More on that in a second.)
That said, I’m not really comfortable with tossing out Monasterios for the rest of the season, as surprisingly decent as he’s been. But you have to remember the limited impact a 5th starter is going to have. With six off-days in the next two months, there’s several opportunities to skip that starter.
Besides, the best option right now is probably an internal one. John Ely has pitched twice since being sent to ABQ, and he’s gone seven innings each time, allowing a total of five runs with a 9/3 K/BB ratio. Before you groan and say that he flamed out, remember that that isn’t really true. Though his final two starts were indeed poor, don’t forget that the two starts immediately preceding them were excellent – back-to-back outings of 7 IP, 1 ER on the road in San Francisco and Anaheim. He’s the obvious call to get the start on Saturday while Kershaw serves his suspension, and it’s worth noting that his 3.79 FIP is exactly the same that Chris Carpenter has for 2010, and lower than guys like Haren, Matt Cain, Phil Hughes, and Mark Buehrle. I’m not suggesting he’s in the same class as they are – but he does deserve another chance to round out the rotation before prospects are dumped for a guy who brings nothing else but creamy veteran goodness, and yes, I am talking about the hilarious rumors that the Pirates want Dee Gordon as part of the return for Maholm.
In addition, don’t forget also that Saturday isn’t really the trading deadline. We saw this happen last year when the Dodgers were able to pick up Jon Garland in August, and with so few teams willing to take on money this year, you’re likely to see a lot more guys make it through waivers. Trades will still happen in August, and if the Dodgers do feel that they need to make a deal for depth, then the prices are likely to be much lower in August. It’s not that I mind the idea of trading for a back-end starting pitcher, because of course I’d prefer Lilly to Ely. I just don’t think it’s worth giving up all that much for.
Besides, the Dodgers have bigger needs than a starting pitcher right now, and that’s the holes in the bullpen, the fact that the offense is stagnant, and the horrendous bench.
You can’t do too much about the offense; either Andre Ethier, Casey Blake and the like are going to start hitting, and Manny’s going to come back healthy and productive, or they’re not going to make the playoffs. Simple as that, because you’re just not going to trade for replacements for those guys – nor, in most cases, should you.
As for the bullpen, we’ve seen the dangers of trying to trade for relief help first-hand, and this year in particular prices seem sky-high. While I would like to see some reinforcements there, signs are at least pointing the right way. Kenley Jansen looks to be a find (I know, I know, just two games) and reports that Ronald Belisario is working out again at Dodger Stadium is a step in the right direction. Sure, I’d like to see Scott Downs join the crew, but not at the prices being tossed around (rumors have Toronto asking the Yankees for Joba Chamberlain or Jesus Montero, and the Red Sox for Casey Kelly or Jose Iglesias).
No, if there’s one area the Dodgers should look to improve at, it’s the bench. Jamey Carroll‘s been great, and Brad Ausmus is what is he is. Really, they could improve themselves right now by simply cutting Garret Anderson (who, by one measure, achieved the title of “Worst Season in LA Dodger history” yesterday, but that deserves a post of its own) and Ronnie Belliard, who have each been abysmal. Simply replacing them with, say, Jay Gibbons and John Lindsey would be a huge boon. (No, Juan Castro doesn’t count, though do expect to see him in September.)
But since we know that’s not going to happen, this is the place to make minor trades. Go ahead, go get Scott Podsednik (assuming the price is right), who could replace Anderson as the lefty outfield bat and could be valuable on the bases and provide depth in LF and CF. Go trade for a Russell Branyan, who would provide some power off the bench and add a real backup at 1B and an emergency option in LF or RF, or see if you can buy low on a Ty Wigginton, who can bring some power and play 1B, 2B, 3B, or LF.
Just don’t freak out if the Dodgers don’t get a starter by Saturday. It’s not their biggest need. (Now watch the starters all get knocked out in the 4th inning for the rest of the week.)
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I was forced to watch the San Diego broadcast last night, and they pointed out the Dodgers have scored the fewest runs in the MLB since the break. 27 runs. That’s 2.3 a game if you’re scoring at home, or even if you’re alone. Needless to say, the offense needs to pick it up, because as MSTI points out, the pitching is looking real solid.
Also, the game ball goes to the “bug” going around the clubhouse. Last night, the “bug” forced Ethier out of and GA into the starting lineup. That allowed Torre to use Ethier to PH in the game’s critical at-bat. (I admit, I didn’t agree with taking Bills out of the game in the top of the 7th at first, but once I saw it was Ethier in the on-deck circle, I was fine with it) Dre gets the big hit, Kuo & Broxton pitch the final 3 innings to lock it down, and the Blue pick up a game in the standings.
Second game ball to Bud Black, who must have forgotten Ethier was on the bench when he decided to walk Martin to get to the pitcher’s spot. I guess, at the least, the move got Bills out of the game.
Comment by Vegas Blue— July 28, 2010 #
I think I said something similar on Twitter last night… it’s funny how taking an awesome pitcher with a low pitch count out feels a lot better when it’s Ethier coming up rather than Belliard.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— July 28, 2010 #
True, but I wonder if Chad Billingsley will ever reach his potential under Torre. I agree with most of your points about needs (i.e., bench, bats) that come ahead of the need for a starter. It’s also amusing that crappy teams are demanding so much for aging veterans with huge contracts, like Oswalt. (Hey, Houston, you suck with him, you can continue to suck with him.) But you have to admit that a move like that – in other words, not choosing the cheapest path – would be a huge credibility and PR boost for ownership.
Comment by rogervdh— July 28, 2010 #
garland said it was his decision to walk Martin. Game ball for him too/
Comment by Gary— July 28, 2010 #
I agree. Ted Lilly would just mean another well pitched game with no run support. Unfortunately, the Dodgers are missing Manny’s bat in the lineup a bit too much, and there is not a damn thing they can do except try to make a trade for more offense. Nobody is going to be pitching around Posednik. If they are serious about making up 7 games in the standings in the next two months, they need to do much better than Posednik. He is a good player, but not a game changer.
Comment by Ely Lilly— July 30, 2010 #
I know this is a bit from out in right field, but the Marlins have DFA Nate Robertson. I think the Dodgers should at least look into getting him. A trade would not require much in the way of prospects and if becomes a free agent, it would cost less the half a million for the rest of the season.
Cheap price tag, low expectations, but might be worth it as a flyer.
Comment by Dodger Fan in Denver— July 28, 2010 #
MSTI,
I know its your ‘job’ to write these blogs, but I am glad you didn’t waste too much ‘ink’ on last night’s game. How dull it would have been–’Bills and relievers pitch, Dre hits, we beat SD again’ yawn
Comment by Davids— July 28, 2010 #
Ha, I usually try to avoid game previews and recaps. I find them boring, and other sites do it well enough.
Still, I NEVER get tired of beating San Diego.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— July 28, 2010 #
Jim Edmonds (who can also play first) would be a better choice than Russell Branyan, would probably cost little or nothing, and would make it possible to DFAGA.
Comment by WBB— July 28, 2010 #
Not sure I agree. He’s started one game at 1B since 2006.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— July 28, 2010 #
Certainly he could play first in a pinch,and he’d be a huge upgrade on GA both offensively and defensively.
Comment by WBB— July 28, 2010 #
Frankly, unless some of our hitters get hot between now and the end of the season, I don’t see how this team does any better than sneak into a wild card spot. As interesting as some of these team-improvement ideas may be, I can’t help but see them as tinkering at the edges. Improving the bench and the bullpen are both worthy goals to be sure, but they won’t turn this underperforming team into a true contender.
Just my opinion, I could be wrong.
Comment by Shmolnick— July 28, 2010 #
Your premise that the Dodgers do not need a number one starter is incorrect. Where you and I differ is come playoff time. The Dodgers have enough to get into the playoffs right now. Kershaw is making huge strides but, they do not as in 2008 and 2009 have the number 1 guy required to go deep into the playoffs. It should not be our goal to simply win the NL West again. This team has a window that is closing soon…they need to trade Loney and get Oswalt and also trade for Overbay or another veteran 1B. With a rotation of Oswalt, Kershaw, Billingsley, Kuroda and Padilla that makes the Dodgers very strong. Kershaw fits nicely into the number 2 slot right now and they have a great amount of depth.
The problem with your statistics is that they do not tell the whole story…I know for example that Billingsley has had a lot of very good starts this year. However, I also know that he can go thru a spell of terrible starts meaning he is too inconsistent to be relied on heavily in the playoffs. The same goes for Kuroda…he has not had his annual broken nail tired arm DL stint. He is due for one soon. The only real consistent pitcher we have right now is Kershaw. Oswalt brings a veteran presence and takes pressure off of everyone else. The object is to win the World Series correct? In 2008 if the Dodgers had traded for Lee or Sabathia they would have been in the World Series…in 2009 if they had traded for Lee again they would have probably been in the World Series. The bullpen is coming together at the right time and will be fine. Our offense is also fine once Manny comes back and decides to focus for 2 months. Trading for Pods is a great idea because it gets rid of Anderson. Every year I read your blog around this time and the argument comes up about trading for a pitcher…and every year they don’t while other teams stack up…its time for us to try a new formula for success spend some money and go for it…
Comment by Mike— July 28, 2010 #
Ugh, Overbay? No thanks.
Besides, Kershaw is better than Oswalt RIGHT NOW.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— July 28, 2010 #
Lyle Overbay is just one example…He is not having a terrible year…Derrick Lee, Jorge Cantu, Adam Dunn, Ty Wiggington etc etc could fill the void for the rest of the year…bottom line is that the Dodgers are better with Oswalt and one of those guys than Loney and no one…Oswalt has a very low WHIP and his ERA is hovering around 3.40 right now…he would be better in a pitchers park…Kershaw is really pitching well right now. Due to his age and issues with walks (granted it has improved) he fits more easily into the number 2 slot…Oswalt is a number one and rolling him out 2 or 3 times in a series gives me comfort. Billingsley fits a lot more nicely into the 3 or 4 slot right now…its all about the matchups…I know you watch the games and must realize that the stats are a bit misleading for both Kershaw and Billingsley right now. Kershaw has taken the next step to be more consistent…Billinsgsley has not proven that he can…yet.
Comment by Mike— July 28, 2010 #
I’m sorry, but just because you trade for some fancy “ace” pitcher does NOT guarantee success in the playoffs. In fact, since you mentioned it, in the 2008 playoffs CC Sabathia had an ERA of 12.27 while failing to make it out of the fourth inning of the NLDS which ultimately led to Milwaukee being beaten in 4 games. They had CC Sabathia and sure didn’t make it to the world series even though he pitched great for them down the stretch. And hell, let’s talk about last year’s NLDS against the Cardinals, in which Wolf, Kershaw, and Padilla won games started by two legitimate “aces” in Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright. Having a veteran pitcher does not automatically mean you’ll win and I seriously doubt that it even gives you a better chance to win. No, if we’re going to make the playoffs it’ll be because the lineup starts hitting like they can, not because of the starting rotation.
Comment by Tom— July 28, 2010 #
Not sure I agree with you either, other Mike. Your logic about the ’08, ’09 seasons is spot on. We lost out on the ace of that year’s trade deadline, and we got beat by the phils in the NLCS. But I don’t think we need a stopper to get to the WS in ’10. The NL is wide open without a single stopper on a playoff team (except for the hard charging Phils……). We have posted “W”s against the “aces” of every good playoff-caliber team in the NL. We would be much better served by keeping our core pieces in place and trading for a Posednik (i.e., someone that would allow us to DFA GA).
Now winning a world series against one of those stopper-filled AL squads…that’s a whole other discussion… At least we would have home field advantage? I think I would rather loose to a NYY (or similar) with our homegrown crew that loose with a team that had been broken apart at the trade deadline to get a Roy Oswalt. Besides in a World Series, you NEVER know what can happen…
Comment by Ghost of Ortizii Past— July 28, 2010 #
The Brewers in 08 do not correlate to the Dodgers in 09 and 10. They were just happy making it to the playoffs and taking a shot…the Dodgers have higher aspirations or should have higher aspirations then just winning the West at this point. This team can win the World Series! All they need to do is fill in one piece. A true number 1 starter to matchup against the opposing teams number 1. Let’s be a little bit honest here too the Dodgers were somewhat fortunate to sweep the Cubs and the Cardinals the last two years. That is proven by how the starting pitching performed in the NLCS.
Comment by Mike— July 28, 2010 #
I’m with MSTI, build from within, we are done paying for old guys who just end up burning us………lets not even get into the impossibility of McCourt taking on Oswalt’s contract. In defense of Bills Torre hasn’t even really trusted him or his pitchers, i think those NLCS might have had different outcomes.
Comment by DodgersKings323— July 28, 2010 #
“That is proven by how the starting pitching performed in the NLCS.” …right, which are also essentially the same starters that got us TO the playoffs in the first place and ALSO managed to take down the Cubs and Cardinals as well. Call it luck if you want, but our starters kept us in every one of those games that allowed us the opportunity to sweep them in the first place.
“The Brewers in 08 do not correlate to the Dodgers in 09 and 10.” What point are you trying to make here? Regardless of whether or not the Brewers were a real playoff contender, Sabathia still sucked hard when they were counting on him to be their magical “ace” to carry them through the playoffs.
“This team can win the World Series! All they need to do is fill in one piece” as much as I’d like to agree with you on this, there are much bigger problems to worry about than just getting one starting pitcher who may or may not actually be better than the top guys we already have. In fact, the lack of bullpen depth and quality arms has been killing us and is going to be a major key if we’re going to sniff the playoffs at all. Can’t use Kuo and Broxton every night (though Torre might think they can). Also worrisome is the lack of offense since the All-Star break, and the fact that Manny can’t stay healthy enough to give our offense the boost it so desperately needs. No, what we need more than a supposed “ace” is a reliable 5th starter that can eat up some innings without being awful.
Comment by Tom— July 28, 2010 #
Hiroki Kuroda doesn’t count as a veteran presence?
Comment by Gary— July 28, 2010 #
Why not trade for Austin Kearns? He’s a free agent after this season, so he’s definitely getting traded, he plays all three outfield positions, and he’s got a .280/.361/.430 split against righties. Platoon him with Reed Johnson and you’ve adequate production out of LF again.
Comment by Nofatmike— July 28, 2010 #
How long can Garout keep his OBP above .200?
Comment by Davids— July 28, 2010 #
This just in. Lucas May and Elisaul Pimentel to KC for Podsednik.
Comment by Vegas Blue— July 28, 2010 #
The Dodgers will be lucky to make the playoffs. I’m changing my opinion after tonight’s debacle to we need bullpen help more than a starter…you guys are failing to see that everything is magnified in the playoffs…having an ace is extremely valuable. Kershaw will have to fill that role because the bullpen is horrible and needs to be addressed immediately. Torre needs to play some small ball too…he is very overrated as a gameday manager.
Comment by Mike— July 29, 2010 #
AMEN MSTI AMEN!!!! im clapping here, becuase ive been saying this all season. this game looks exactly like the 6-1 loss to the mets on friday night. great starting pitching, terrible relief pitching, terrible hitting, and of coarse Joe Torre yanking his starter for no reason.
Comment by format— July 29, 2010 #
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I agree, unless we are getting a pitcher that can join the rotation next year for a reasonable salary and price.
vr, Xei
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