Dodgers Downgrade at 2B To Acquire Unnecessary Pitcher
July 31, 2010 at 2:27 pm | Posted in Blake DeWitt, Ted Lilly | 25 CommentsLet’s break this mess into two pieces…
1) Ted Lilly comes to the Dodgers. In a vacuum, I don’t hate the idea of adding Lilly to your staff. Even though starting pitching is the least of the Dodger problems, Lilly’s an improvement over current #5 starter Carlos Monasterios. Considering Monasterios was a Rule 5 pick, just holding his own has been impressive, but his 3.61 ERA is obscured by his 5.34 FIP and -0.4 WAR; a 4.3 K/9 rate and .264 BABIP just aren’t sustainable.
So is Ted Lilly an improvement there? Sure, why not. He’s overrated – his K rate has dropped three years in a row, his FIP is 4.50, and his velocity has dropped for five years in a row down to about 86 MPH this year, but I’d probably rather trot him out there every 5th day than Monasterios, or even John Ely. I don’t think it’s a huge improvement over Ely, but I won’t argue the point.
That’s not the issue, though. Even if it is an improvement, is it one worth making? Lilly’s the 5th starter. You’ll never convince me he’s better than Kershaw, Billingsley, Kuroda, or Padilla right now, and the problems we’ve seen lately have been caused by non-existent offense and unreliable bullpen work, not poor starting pitching. Other than Ely’s poor last two starts, the most recent outings by #5 guys (Monasterios/James McDonald/Ely before those starts) have been overall a soup of mediocrity, no different than any other team. So if you’re using some of your trade chips, you really ought to be doing it on an area that’s a big problem, not to mildly improve an area that’s not desperately in need of it.
Again, I don’t mind seeing Lilly as a Dodger, but trading anything more than a non-prospect for him makes it completely not worth it. Ted Lilly is not the piece that propels you into October. And since he’s making $12m this year, you know he won’t be offered arbitration, so you can’t even look forward to any draft picks. If you were going to trade for a middling lefty who won’t really help that much this year, it might as well have been for Paul Maholm, who’s at least signed for 2011.
2) Ryan Theriot comes to LA, with Blake DeWitt headed to Chicago. I can’t express my disappointment in this enough, and I don’t even like DeWitt all that much. I think he’s done a decent job, but with absolutely zero power and defense that’s average at best, he’s not really proving himself to be a piece you build around. I just want to repeat that; the Dodgers are giving up someone I’m not an enormous fan of, and this is still a big mistake.
Let’s count the ways!
Theriot is older: DeWitt turns 25 in about three weeks. Theriot turns 31 in December.
Theriot is more expensive: DeWitt’s making the minimum and can’t be a free agent until after 2014. Theriot’s making $2.6m and is eligible for arbitration in 2011 and 2012.
Theriot’s hitting worse this year: DeWitt’s not hitting for much power, but his wOBA is .319 and he’s been worth 1.0 WAR, largely because he’s been doing an okay job at getting on base (.352 OBP). Theriot’s been dreadful – his wOBA is .291 and he’s been a negative value, at -0.1 WAR.
Theriot’s regressing, while DeWitt is improving: Theriot’s OPS the last three seasons come in at .745, .712, & .645. DeWitt’s OPS this year is .723, but check out his monthly OPS numbers: .681, .726, .734, .745. In July, he’s hitting .295/.368/.377. At just 24, those numbers are headed in the right direction.
Theriot’s not even really a fielding improvement: I understand that UZR, in one season, is generally not the most reliable. Keeping that in mind, DeWitt’s ranked at -0.8 runs at 2B in 2010; Theriot is -3.3 at SS and -1.0 at 2B. That’s even though DeWitt was learning a new position this year.
Even Cub fans don’t like Theriot: His sponsored baseball-reference page reads:
The longest streak of starts by a Cub without an extra-base hit since 1992 (Joe Girardi) and the seventh-longest streak since 1920. I hear Milton Bradley is to blame.
So the Dodgers just downgraded their 2B situation to someone who’s older, more expensive, and worse, all to get a 5th starter they don’t really need. And you wonder why I get so negative sometimes here?
******
But wait! There’s more. I’d have hated just DeWitt for Lilly and Theriot. That by itself would be a bad deal. But it’s worse than that, because the Dodgers had to throw in minor league pitchers Kyle Smit & Brett Wallach to complete the deal (the Cubs tossed in $2.5m as well.) I admittedly don’t know a ton about either, but I do know that the 22-year-old Smit is striking out nearly 5 times as many as he’s walked with a 2.35 ERA in the minors, and the 21-year-old Wallach is striking out more than a man per inning at Great Lakes this year. Neither were seen as top prospects (Wallach was #17, Smit #34 in MOKM’s pitcher prospect rankings a few weeks ago) so I’m not crushed that they were dealt, but it’s definitely bothersome that they had to be added to a trade that was bad in the first place. Brett is also Tim Wallach’s son, by the way.
******
Hilarious exchange on MLB Network as the trade was announced. The panel roundly liked the deal, saying things like “Hats off to Ned Colletti”, “This was a deal the Dodgers had to make”, & “this is designed to get Dodgers to postseason.” Then Harold Reynolds, of all people, was the only one who brought the reality:
I’m missing it. Ted Lilly doesn’t take you to the playoffs. I don’t get the trade.
When Harold Reynolds is the only one getting things right, you know there’s a problem.
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I can’t believe you, MSTI. Lilly and Theriot are both gamers who can help us. They both have veteran haircuts, and give quality postgame interviews, just like former pinch hitter extraordinaire Mark Sweeney, the consensus MVP of the 2008 Dodgers. DeWitt may draw a lot of walks, but they are INEXPERIENCED walks so they don’t mean as much. And the two minor leaguers? They’re minor leaguers. Please.
Comment by The Dude Abides— July 31, 2010 #
OK with me as long as the minor league prospects aren’t too much. They had to do something- a win here and there more than what we had with virtually no reliable fifth starter could indeed make the difference. You have to throw the dice- nobody knows how good or bad this trade is until the end of the season. Plus, at this point at least, DeWitt is less than average. Not that I’m overjoyed with him, but at least Theriot steals some bases.
Comment by Ray— July 31, 2010 #
Plus, Monasterios can now be in the bullpen. I know our starters have been great this month, but that won’t last forever. You can never have too much pitching.
Comment by Ray— July 31, 2010 #
You’re nailing this too. I hope those minor league pitchers don’t turn out to be good. I was down on Dewitt, too. He’s really likable but seems over-matched in the majors. Lilly is at best the #4 inf not #5. The Riot makes no sense at all. What are we looking for there other than to get older and more expensive?
Comment by Joe— July 31, 2010 #
Harold Reynolds is unquestionably right on this one.
Comment by WBB— July 31, 2010 #
LOL…my Cubs buddy sent me this from a cubs fan board:
The Dodgers are now the grittiest team in baseball.
Ryan Theriot
Scott Podsednik
Jamey Carroll
Casey Blake
They lead the league in WHUFFs (white hustling utility fan favorites)! I guess you can throw Reed Johnson on there too.
Comment by Joe— July 31, 2010 #
Don’t forget that Mark Sweeney and his stellar 2008 line of .130/.250/.163 is one of the coaches! Clearly the best Dodger on that 2008 team. He always ran everything out! He provided a steady veteran example to our young and inexperienced outfielders like Kemp and Ethier with their “fancy home runs” and “high slugging percentages” (an overrated statistic if there ever was one).
Comment by The Dude Abides— July 31, 2010 #
Change the name to Los Angeles Grinders!
Comment by Jim Gilliam— July 31, 2010 #
This trade means absolutely nothing. I greeted the news with complete indifference. The Dodgers are done this season and next season. In 2011, they won’t have Manny; Blake and Raffy will be a year older; Martin will be a year shittier (with absolutely NO other option at Catcher); Kuroda and Padilla will likely be gone, and team ownership will be a question mark. Uh… this is my town?
Comment by Higgins— July 31, 2010 #
this trade is pointless, and does nothing to address the teams major weaknesses, while trying to make it seem like our gm and manager are smart.
the teams weaknesses remain the same, lousy bullpen, no hitting, and a horrid bench.
the only upside is a slight improvement at 5 starter. but still im not happy about this. I actually liked dewitt. hes young and was improving, or ive always thought so throughout the season.
plus hes batting a respectable .270
we need manny back pronto, and we need him to hit.
Comment by format— July 31, 2010 #
At least trading away a young player for one (or more) past-their-prime guys has never blown up in the Dodgers’ face before.
…right?
Comment by Ryan— July 31, 2010 #
I would be laughing right now if I weren’t so depressed.
Comment by Los Doyers— July 31, 2010 #
too bad we couldn’t have gotten berkman,
but that would have made too much sense
and certainly would have been beyond the grasp of the nedster
who once again showed the world his magnificent impotence.
Comment by BotFot— July 31, 2010 #
Excellent Article.. Spot On!…
This Organization is Circling th Drain
Comment by DarthRekal— July 31, 2010 #
Harold Reynolds? I am more sure now than when they hired Ned that it was a mistake. I’m not ready for football, but I’m ready for next year. Season over.
Comment by Wes Parker— July 31, 2010 #
Dodgers just traded JMac to the Pirates for Dotel. Also supposedly threw in some guy named Lamb to the Pirates, but I fear Rosenthal is mistaken and it’s actually Lambo.
Comment by The Dude Abides— July 31, 2010 #
IDIOTS!!!!!!!!!!!! Our team is run by squirrels in heat. I don’t know why I even care anymore.
Comment by Ghost of Ortizii Past— July 31, 2010 #
The problem is the bullpen….With last year BP we are close to first…and the absence of Manny…PERIOD…our starters are fine, but we are not nearly in the class of Philly so why bother trading any potential upside prospects….We need an owner who invests in prospects not lawyers.We will never compete until he sells
Comment by STEVE— July 31, 2010 #
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