That’s Five In A Row…

And this one was Jonathan Broxton‘s fault too! He wasn’t sending enough V-energy in from the bullpen, or something.  Nah, this one’s likely to get blamed on James McDonald, who wasn’t great, allowing four runs on nine hits over five innings. That said, I didn’t have high hopes for him in the first place:

McDonald missed over a month with a hamstring pull, and his three starts since his return have been mixed. Four shutout innings on July 1 was a nice start, but then he allowed four earned runs in 6.2 IP at Iowa on July 6. Then on the 11th, he allowed just one run over 6.1 at Omaha, but did so while walking four and striking out just two, so it’s hard to say what to expect. I’m not convinced that he’s any better than Ely is right now, but I’m glad to see him get a chance.

And McDonald’s results were predictably mediocre, because while it was nice that he worked out of a bases-loaded, no-out jam… he also loaded the bases with no outs. Long-term, I still prefer him as a reliever; I know it’s only been five career starts and it’s unfair to judge him on that, but he’s been so much more effective out of the bullpen.

Of course, the Dodgers still have to worry about who’s going to start the next time the #5 spot comes around on Saturday against the Mets. It could be McDonald, or Ely (who allowed three runs in seven innings in his first ABQ start), or Carlos Monasterios, who followed McDonald with two shutout innings. My choice is Ely, probably. While his last two starts were terrible, his two previous starts were each one run allowed over seven innings. You could make the case to give McDonald another shot and I’d be okay with that, but there’s no way that Monasterios should be starting over Ely.

But really, this isn’t totally McDonald’s fault. The culprit here was the same as it’s been for a while: the Dodger offense. We’re now three weeks into July, and the offense has been entirely Rafael Furcal (1.238 OPS), James Loney (.986), and Andre Ethier (.911). Blake DeWitt‘s been decent when he gets to play (.805), Matt Kemp is sliding backwards again (.715, and you don’t hear Torre’s benching getting much credit now, do you?) and Russell Martin (.693) and particularly Casey Blake (.447; 6 hits in 53 PA) have been horrendous. Plus of course, Manny has made zero contribution.

You can worry about the pitching all you want, but when half of your lineup is a total black hole, and has been for some time now, you’ve got bigger problems than you can fill via trade.

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Regarding Jamey Carroll starting in left field… well, I applaud Torre for looking at innovative ways to get his best performers in the lineup, and believe it or not, Carroll has been a nice find at the plate. But remember, the choice here was not between Carroll or Xavier Paul; it was between Paul and Ronnie Belliard (assuming that Carroll would have started at 2B, if not LF). Belliard’s been awful all season, despite two hits on Sunday, and he proved that again last night. Has Madison Bumgarner, with all of five starts under his belt entering the game, really earned that kind of lefty/righty platoon respect?

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I missed it last week, but MSTI just celebrated our three-year anniversary – and today just so happens to be the 1,000th post. Hooray for us!

The Truth About Jonathan Broxton

In the aftermath of last night’s disaster, I received a good question from a fan on Twitter: When, he wanted to know, would it be okay to blame Jonathan Broxton for his failures? He’s referring to the fact that I (among others) put a lot of the blame on Joe Torre for the Yankee debacle, and generally defend Broxton otherwise.

My answer is: sure, you can blame him for yesterday’s game right now. I mean, it’s unfair to do that without also blaming Travis Schlichting and Justin Miller for failing to get through the 8th, Matt Kemp for hesitating with the ball when he could have nailed the runner at second for the game-ending out before the tying run scored, Jamey Carroll for leaving six men on base, and the entire Dodger offense for barely touching the man who may be the worst starting pitcher in baseball right now, Jeff Suppan. On top of all that, the fact that the Dodgers lost the first three games of the series – losses which Broxton had nothing to do with – thus making this game seem like a bigger deal than it really was, didn’t help the case either.  

Those sins don’t absolve Broxton, of course. They shouldn’t be ignored, either.

Still, it was Broxton who let six men reach base without a single strikeout, so yes: last night’s on him. It was dreadfully painful to watch, all the more so because I knew what kind of silliness we’d be reading about today (as Chad at MOKM points out, it’s worse than you think.)

All I ask is to be fair about this. Broxton didn’t blow the game last night because of some garbage you’ll hear about not seeing the killer instinct when you look into his eyes, as though any one of us has a real personal relationship with him. That’s ridiculous, and it’s unfair of anyone to even speculate what goes on inside his head, because you just don’t know.

No, Broxton lost last night because he dicked around against rookie Jon Jay, who has all of 75 career at-bats. He tried to nibble rather than challenging him, and issued him a free pass. He lost because he threw 27 pitches in the 9th inning, and all but three were fastballs. I don’t care how hard you throw; unless your fastball has some movement on it, which Broxton’s largely doesn’t, guys are going to be able to get around on it if they know it’s coming. (This, by the way, is exactly the same thing I said when I was analyzing last year’s botched NLCS game against the Phillies in the Maple Street Annual.) He threw, according to MLB.com, 17 fastballs in a row to Brendan Ryan, Felipe Lopez, Jay, and Allen Craig.

That’s not lack of intestinal fortitude; that’s just being stupid, bull-headed or both. Broxton has a decent slider. He just needs to mix it in more, because as hard as it may be to hit 99 MPH heat when you know it’s coming, it’s downright impossible when you have the worry of a knee-buckling breaking pitch in the back of your mind.

So yeah, be mad at Broxton for last night’s game. Be frustrated. I know I am. Just think with your head before you call for ludicrous trade ideas - as though he’s not having the best season of his career (lowest FIP among all MLB relievers, career-low BB/9, career-low HR/9, second-highest career K/9, despite a career-high BABIP), as though no other closer in the big leagues ever blows a save, and as though the Dodgers really have anyone anywhere near his caliber to replace him.

We can be mad, but we can also be reasonable. I hope.

Nothing Good Came From Last Night

There’s absolutely nothing good I can say about Chad Billingsley‘s start last night, despite his claims to the contrary, so I won’t. Really, all I can do is offer you some backup to defend against his detractors, and that’s that his FIP is only 3.45, while Dan Haren‘s is 3.81. Billingsley’s ERA is so high in large part because he’s suffered through a career-high .347 BABIP – and because the bullpen generally hasn’t done a great job of keeping his inherited runners off the board.

Still, coming after Clayton Kershaw‘s lousy start the night before, it’s hardly an inspiring start to the second half. What is it with the Dodgers in St. Louis? Playoffs aside, I’m pretty sure they haven’t won there since 1972.

Of course the big news coming out of last night were the injury concerns with Manny Ramirez and Russell Martin. Starting with Manny, he took his at-bat in the top of the first and never made it into the field, having apparently strained his calf. Again.

There’s no news yet on whether he’ll head to the disabled list, but my guess is that it’s probably pretty likely. He’s having a hard enough time staying healthy as it is, so you’d think they wouldn’t want to make him play while injured and just exacerbate the situation. Jon Weisman points out that if that’s the case, the Dodgers are suddenly looking thin: Reed Johnson is also on the DL, and the only healthy position players on the 40-man roster are Ivan DeJesus Jr. and Trayvon Robinson.

Robinson, 22, has actually had a very good season at AA: .382 OBP and 29 steals thus far. But he’s also struck out once per game at that level, and unlike Xavier Paul, I do consider him someone who needs to play every day right now, so I wouldn’t want to start his clock just to fill out the bench for a week or so until Johnson is ready to return.

No, if you do have to replace Manny from within, you have to do it by recalling a non-roster player killing the ball at ABQ – Jay Gibbons, Jamie Hoffmann or John Lindsey. None are on the 40-man roster, but the Dodgers have three open spots, by my count, and that’s without even considering the one that’s about to open up when George Sherrill is gone. One will be needed for Brad Ausmus – more on him in a second – but roster space isn’t an issue.

All have nice numbers at ABQ, which should be taken with a huge grain of salt: Hoffmann has an .804 OPS, Gibbons .920, and Lindsey an absurd 1.140. Hoffmann has the advantage of having been with the big club before, and he’s an excellent defensive outfielder. Lindsey’s numbers are crazy, but he’s limited to 1B, while Gibbons can play 1B or the corner outfield spots.

Obviously, the hope is that Manny doesn’t go on the DL,but there could be a silver lining if he does; if one of these three gets called up (I’d go with Gibbons due to his being lefty and able to play more than one spot) and they make a good impression, it could go a long way towards getting Garret Anderson off the team when Manny and Johnson are healthy again.

******

The other injury concern is with Russell Martin, who had to leave last night’s game with a swollen left thumb. Here’s the best part, and stop me if you’ve heard this before:

Martin hadn’t informed the team medical staff of the nagging issue, which he said he had been dealing with for several days

Aaaannd… facepalm. How many times have we heard this before – that a player doesn’t let the team know he’s hurt – and how many times has it ever ended well? Tony Jackson’s story implies that it doesn’t seem to be enough to send him to the DL, but I almost hope it would, because that’s the only way he’s going to take any time off. I wouldn’t think it possible, but he’s actually been worse than ever over the last month (.184/.297/.237 in 22 games) so I really don’t see the point of allowing him to try to play through this – it’s not helping him or the team.

As for Ausmus, he’s expected to be activated within the next week barring any setbacks. I assume A.J. Ellis is starting today – I mean, he has to, right – and if Martin hasn’t improved by the time Ausmus is ready he needs to be put on the DL, even if he doesn’t like it.

It’s Friday…

…so why is everyone at work in such a foul mood? Anyway, the less said about last night’s game the better (I’m only half kidding when I say that watching it was less entertaining than watching the cat chase bugs around), so  let’s touch on a few widely varied topics.

Let’s start off with the rotation, where James McDonald appears likely to get the Monday start in John Ely‘s place, and while that’s not confirmed, McDonald was scratched from his start today. McDonald missed over a month with a hamstring pull, and his three starts since his return have been mixed. Four shutout innings on July 1 was a nice start, but then he allowed four earned runs in 6.2 IP at Iowa on July 6. Then on the 11th, he allowed just one run over 6.1 at Omaha, but did so while walking four and striking out just two, so it’s hard to say what to expect. I’m not convinced that he’s any better than Ely is right now, but I’m glad to see him get a chance – and fortunately for him he gets to face the Giants.

******

How many people were confused when George Sherrill got into last night’s game? I asked that on Twitter, and the answer was: a lot, since they thought he had been immediately removed from the roster. Think of this like the month of August, where trades are still allowed but only once players have made it through waivers. You never hear about it, but tons of players - even ones teams don’t really plan on trading – are placed on waivers, just to see who makes it through and is available to be used in deals. It’s kind of the same thing for Sherrill, who finds out if he clears waivers today and is on the roster until then. The only difference here is that if Sherrill is claimed, he can’t be pulled back by the Dodgers, unlike the usual August waivers I mentioned.

In a related topic, I suppose this is why waiver deals are supposed to be kept so secret. Imagine if Sherrill had come out and struck out the side last night? (I know, you’d probably need some sort of medicinal help to imagine that.) How would that have made things look then?

******

BP’s Jay Jaffe says that the Dodgers have regressed more on defense from 2009 to 2010 than any other team in baseball:

Having accentuated the positive, we’ll move on to lambasting the negative, since eliminating it doesn’t seem to be an option, or even very much fun. And No. 1 on the list of teams that deserve it are the Dodgers, who went from leading the league in DE last year by a whole seven points to ranking 10th this year. Not surprisingly, one key culprit appears to be the loss of Orlando Hudson (+17), though Blake DeWitt and friends have been a respectable two runs above average at the keystone. At third base, Casey Blake has declined (+13 to -5), and Rafael Furcal has dropped off (+13 to +4), surprising given how much more Furcal-like he’s been when available. In the outfield, Matt Kemp has lost 10 runs himself (+8 to -2), a particularly rough blow when coupled with his 20-point drop in True Average. Luckily for the Dodgers, they’re second in the league in strikeout rate, minimizing the number of balls in play.

It’s really hard to argue with any of that.

******

Ramon Troncoso‘s pitched in four games for the Isotopes, and he’s allowed two homers – though he has struck out five and walked just two. Only one of the two homers was at home, so it’s not all the ABQ effect, though last night’s was a walkoff. Not good.

******

ESPN’s Buster Olney speculates on who may want to buy the Dodgers should the McCourts be forced to sell:

There is speculation within the sport that if the McCourts are forced to sell the Dodgers as they go through their divorce proceedings, the person who is most perfectly positioned to buy the team is Dennis Gilbert, the longtime agent and team executive. Gilbert lives in the L.A. area, is a known quantity to commissioner Bud Selig, and Gilbert essentially finished second in the bidding for the Texas Rangers last year — largely because Nolan Ryan chose to align himself with Chuck Greenberg. Gilbert knows a whole lot of people, big hitters in the money world, and if the Dodgers’ franchise needs rescuing — and in the sport right now, the team’s ownership troubles are regarded as a cover-your-eyes embarrassment — Gilbert will have the financial wherewithal to restore the club to its past greatness.

******
Garret Anderson update: his 0-1 last night kept him steady at #10 on the list of “worst seasons in Dodger history“, though with only six more hitless at-bats, he’ll likely be up to #7.

Also, while I have a lot of respect for Tony Jackson, this part of his chat yesterday killed me:

Sam (Fullerton)
How much longer will the Dodgers leave the corpse of Garret Anderson out on the field before they waive him?

Tony Jackson 
That’s a good question, Sam, but I get the sense they’re not going to wait much longer, unless Garret suddenly gets hot. I do think Torre and the coaching staff likes having him around for what he brings to the clubhouse. He lockers next to Matt Kemp at home, and I think they think he has been a good influence. So it may come down to how long the front office is willing to go along with the wishes of the staff.

Maybe I’ve been off on a distant planet or something, but haven’t we heard plenty of whispers that people aren’t always thrilled with Kemp’s attitude, culminating in the benching that seemed to be a direct result of a spat he had with bench coach Bob Schaefer? So… wouldn’t that then mean that Anderson’s actually doing a terrible job at mentoring, too? Guess we can just add that to the list of things he can’t do anymore.

******

As long as we’re getting on Anderson, I should be an equal opportunity naysayer and expand on the D I gave Ronnie Belliard in the first-half grades. He’s got one hit in his last twenty-eight at-bats, and he’s hitting just .220 on the season. Clearly, he’s not much of a contributor in the field, either.

I don’t think cutting him is as clear-cut as it is for Anderson, simply because there’s not an Xavier Paul behind him ready to step in. Chin-lung Hu isn’t any sort of a bat, and Ivan DeJesus needs to play every day after losing last year to injury. In addition, Belliard is really the only backup 1B on the team, unless you count Casey Blake.

So his spot is secure for now, but I’d really like to see if the Dodgers can cheaply go after Russell Branyan, as I suggested earlier this week. Think about it: dump Anderson, dump Belliard, keep Paul, acquire Branyan. You’d then have your non-catching bench split between two righties and two lefties, you’d be covered in the outfield with Paul and Johnson, Jamey Carroll could cover backing up 2B/SS/3B, and Branyan would be a true lefty power bat who could actually play some 1B. Even if you think that stretches the non-1B backup infield to have only Carroll, remember that it’s only six weeks until rosters expand, ABQ isn’t that far away should injury happen, and if worst comes to absolute worst, you could still stick Russell Martin at 3B for the late innings of a game where injuries mount until reinforcements arrive.

First Half in Review

As the second half kicks off tonight, let’s take a quick look back at the first half and issue some grades. (I actually got requests for these on Twitter. Ha!) These are slightly condensed compared to years past, but you only want to read so much of my garbage anyway.

Remember, these are totally subjective opinions of one man, and they reflect only what was expected from the player before the season – they’re not meant to compare them to other players on the team or in the league. I say that so no one thinks I really consider Jeff Weaver more valuable than Chad Billingsley.

A+
Hong-Chih Kuo. He’d get at least a B just for still being able to pitch with his history, but he’s dominating out of the pen in a way we haven’t seen in years. Still hasn’t allowed a hit to a lefty since last season. I’m pretty sure George Sherrill allowed three hits while I was writing this sentence.

Clayton Kershaw. That’s A for Ace. ACE. ACE. Tied for 6th in lowest batting average against, and the only one of the guys ahead of him who didn’t make the All-Star team should have – Mat Latos.

Juan Pierre. Wait, what? Oh, that’s right. He’s got a .615 OPS for the White Sox, and John Ely (and much less so, Jon Link) has been a huge contributor for the Dodgers in a time of need. This is without question the most valuable Juan Pierre has ever been to the Dodgers.

A
Rafael Furcal. Docked slightly for the missed time, but I did already call him the best shortstop in LA Dodger history, so there’s that.

Jamey Carroll. Hey, I’ll admit when I’m wrong, and Carroll’s been so much better than I ever expected he’d be. His OBP is stellar and his steady play at SS during Furcal’s absence prevented the kind of “Angel Berroa, 2008″ disaster which could have sank the entire season. That said, if someone’s actually looking to trade something of value (like a pitcher) for him, you do it ten times out of ten.

John Ely. Kind of funny to give an A to someone who got demoted before the break, right? Well it doesn’t matter. He could not pitch another inning for the rest of the year, and it wouldn’t diminish the excitement he brought out of nowhere when the starting rotation was at it’s lowest.

Jeff Weaver. Once again, a non-roster invite, and once again, a reliable jack-of-all-trades in the bullpen. If anything, he’s actually been better than last year (dig the lower WHIP). He’s not flashy, but he’s provided value from basically nothing.

Travis Schlichting. I jinxed the poor guy’s scoreless streak. Least I can do is give him an A. Now can someone please update his Wikipedia page so that the picture is no longer of him as a Devil Ray (yes, Devil) third baseman?

A-
Jonathan Broxton. Broxton’s awesome. Refute me, and be wrong. He’s only knocked down a peg because that Yankees debacle was so public and gave so much unneeded fuel to his detractors, which I could certainly have lived without.

Andre Ethier. Kicked down only because of his missed time and mediocrity since returning, but holy hell was he on fire before he got hurt.

James Loney. The power’s still not there, and I don’t know that I really expect it to come any more. That said, his .803 OPS would be nearly a 50-point improvement over last season, and his OPS has improved each month of the year. So for this season, on this team (with three top bats in the outfield)? He’s fine. But as arbitration costs go up, and as Manny’s going to get replaced with someone less productive next year, he may not be worth the price going forward. For now, he’s having a nice year.

Carlos Monasterios. I still don’t know how he’s getting by with a 4.5 K/9, but this is a guy none of us had heard of when he was acquired in the Rule 5 draft. Most kids who jump from A-ball to the bigs via Rule 5 either get sent back immediately, get torched in the bigs, get hidden on the DL with a phantom injury, or some combination of the three. Monasterios not only has stuck but has been decently effective, even while being forced into a few starts. That’s impressive.

B+
Chad Billingsley. Oh no! Run! Chad Billingsley doesn’t have “it”, the undefinable existential quality that all great pitchers have! Trade him! Cut him! Kill him! Oh, what’s that? By many standards, he’s having one of the best seasons of his career, because 3.2/9 is his lowest walk rate ever, and his 3.40 FIP is comparable to his 3.35 2008 mark when he won 16 games? Nah, facts bore me. I’d rather indiscriminately say that he’s got mental problems.

B
Hiroki Kuroda. Hey, he’s stayed healthy, and on this squad that counts for something, right? He’s been more hittable than in previous years, but he’s also striking out more, and his ERA+ is an even 100. I’ll take it.

Vicente Padilla. Such a hard grade. Missed so much time, but has been awesome since his return. Ah hell, no gunshot wounds, no fistfights or arrests, I should probably have given him an A+. Why do I feel like I’m about to take a beanball?

Manny Ramirez. Manny rightfully loses credit because he’s missed a lot of time, but the claims that he’s finished are laughable. His career OPS is an even 1.000, and at 38 he’s got a .937 OPS, which leads the team and would be 12th in MLB if he had enough plate appearances. Damn those pesky facts getting in the way of a good story!

B-
Justin Miller. He was going to be lower, but then I remembered that he was a non-roster guy who’s striking out 11.4 per 9. Even though he’s struggled lately and constantly seems on the verge of losing his job, that’s nice performance from a guy you invested nothing in.C+
Blake DeWitt. The nearly complete lack of power is concerning, and I’m still not convinced he’s the long-term solution at 2B. However, his defense has definitely improved since the beginning of the year – he’s clearly put a lot of work into it – and his OPS has improved each month of the year. Still plenty of room for improvement here.

C
Casey Blake. This is kind of an average between “Casey Blake = D” and “Casey Blake‘s Beard = A+”. So C it is.

Matt Kemp. This is another one of those tough grades, but only because we had such high hopes for him. Benching or no, it’s hard to ignore the obvious regressions in baserunning, fielding, and plate discipline. On the other hand, those who consider his season a disaster are way off base; he’s going to hit 25-30 homers and he’s got a 113 OPS+.

Reed Johnson. This is basically what we expected, right? Slightly below-average offense, slightly below-average defense. That sounds about right.

C-
Russell Martin. Can’t go any lower than this because I expected him to suck before the season started, and indeed he has. If anything, it annoys me that we have to say this is acceptable because every other catcher sucks, too. I just still can’t believe I actually wrote this in reviewing the 2008 first half:

Without question, the best offensive player so far. There were actually some inane stories out there that I won’t even subject you to linking to saying that he’s been off his game this year, but that’s mostly thanks to his very slow start to the season, hitting .197 as late as April 20th. But you know what? Martin’s actually having the best offensive year of his career overall. His 118 OPS+ is up 5 from last year, and while his slugging % is down slightly (.029 less than last year), it’s more than made up by his exemplary .394 OBP, which is actually better than Alex Rodriguez, Josh Hamilton, and Hanley Ramirez. Plus, he plays third base! What can I say? This guy’s the heart and soul of the team. He’s the best player, and he never complains. Love this guy. Love him.

Ugh. Not enough facepalms in the world. Seriously, I wish I was on fire right now.

D
Ramon Troncoso. Blame Torre if you want, and that’s certainly part of it, but just read this post from June and remember that this isn’t as shocking as it seems. Still, don’t forget how valuable he was in April when the staff was falling apart.

Ronnie Belliard. Remember the excitement he brought after coming over via trade last year? So far the only interesting thing he’s done was get weighed daily in camp to see if he’d made his number. He’s also got one hit in his last 27 at-bats. When do we start calling for his job?

D-
Ronald Belisario. We still don’t know the true extent of his situation, but has proven to be absolutely unreliable. Obviously, you hope he can overcome whatever’s causing his issues. Does he still have a future in LA? Hard to say.

F
Charlie Haeger. What can I say, I had the highest of hopes for Haeger, and he disappointed. Was his foot injury really that serious? Who can say. All I can cling to at this point is that he’s still just 26, which is an infant in knuckleball terms – and that in his last three AAA outings, he’s got a line of 14 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 11 K, 8 BB. It may not be until September, or next year, but he’ll get another shot in the bigs. I just hope it’s with the Dodgers.

George Sherrill. All-Star to waivers in the space of a year. Just unreal. Like Haeger, I bet we haven’t seen the last of him, because no one’s claiming that contract.

F-bomb
Ramon Ortiz. After predictably failing as a Dodger, he’s now getting lit up even worse for the Mets’ AAA club (18 ER in 19 IP). Nothing makes me happier, except…

Russ Ortiz. …knowing that Russ Ortiz was forced into retirement, he was so bad. I’m not even sure that’s enough, he should be in witness protection. Really, was anything more predictable than the failure of these two?

Holy god, FFFFFFF
Garret Anderson. For the record, I said this was a terrible idea from day one. (Before day one, actually.) But even I never thought it’d be this bad. Remember, he’s having ONE OF THE TEN WORST SEASONS IN TEAM HISTORY, and this team’s been around since about 30 years before Vin Scully was even born. How is it okay that Sherrill gets dumped because he’s unfixable, but Anderson keeps on keepin’ on?

Incomplete
Brad Ausmus. One game before back surgery, but he may be back as soon as next week. Hooray?

A.J. Ellis. No, he’s not hitting. He’s also played about as much as I have. What did we really expect?

Nick Green. Hitting a robust .154 with Toronto. Boy, who could have seen that coming?

Chin-lung Hu. Hu got into three innings over two games, and didn’t even get a single defensive chance, much less an at-bat. I’m honestly not sure what you want me to say here. At least he’s hitting a (mostly empty) .300 at ABQ?

Jon Link. Link’s been up and down about five times this year, yet only has seen action in four games. Still like him better than Pierre.

Scott Elbert. Geez, I’m not sure how his season could be any worse. His one MLB appearance this year was a 3 BB, 0.2 IP disaster, he hasn’t been great in AAA (1.846 WHIP)… oh, and he basically disappeared for over a month. He’s only recently returned to Camelback to start throwing, but his future is hugely in doubt at this point.

Xavier Paul: Hasn’t really played enough to judge, but he isn’t Garret Anderson, and that alone counts for something.