Remember This Day in December

Hiroki Kuroda, perhaps at the peak of his value after last night’s gem, was claimed on waivers by the Padres, who could badly use a veteran starter.

Ted Lilly, who’s been brilliant since coming to the Dodgers except for his last start, was claimed on waivers by the Yankees, who have serious depth issues in the rotation.

Yet the Dodgers, in their infinite wisdom, decided to trade neither one, meaning they’re doing exactly what I begged them not to last week: they’re doing this half-assed. They have a 4.1% chance of making the playoffs, and they just dumped their best hitter on the White Sox, yet they’re acting like they’re primed for a playoff push.

This isn’t a Manny situation, where getting a decent prospect was unlikely for a variety of reasons. Kuroda & Lilly each have true real-world value, and while they wouldn’t return A++ prospects, they would have more than likely brought back players worth developing for the future.

Now, some will say that the Dodgers kept them with the intention of retaining them for next year. Oh yeah? Kuroda makes $13m this year, Lilly $12m. They’re each pitching well. You really think that they’re getting massive paycuts if offered arbitration? Of course they’re not – by rule, they can’t take more than a 20% cut -  and that means that there’s no prayer that the Dodgers will even bother to offer.

Not that I think they can afford to sign either to a long-term contract either, but if that’s their plan, they would still have the opportunity to have done so even if they had traded one of them today.

So what we have now is a mediocre team playing out the stretch, unable to see the truth, deluded that they’re contenders, who just gave up a chance to improve the future for the small glory of finishing five games out rather than eight. And I’m just talking about Kuroda and Lilly for the moment; Octavio Dotel, George Sherrill, and Scott Podsednik should have gone as well.

Remember this on December 1, as the arbitration deadline passes with Kuroda and Lilly not having received offers. Remember how mad we were about Randy Wolf and Orlando Hudson last year? This is going to be worse.

******

Hey, I have a new article at Baseball Prospectus up. It’s a quick look at prospects who will be called up in September who might have a fantasy impact. No Dodgers, sadly, unless you really think A.J. Ellis‘ time is now.

Hiroki Kuroda Reminds Us of What’s Important

Today had the potential to be one of the darkest days in Dodger history, and in many ways, I suppose it was. As if shipping off the man who sits atop the club’s all-time leader boards in several important offensive categories for next to nothing wasn’t enough, we had to deal with the start of the embarrassing divorce case between two millionaires equally unworthy of owning the club. (Seriously, if you care about the case, you should be following Molly Knight and Josh “Dodger Divorce” Fisher, who have been killing it from within the courtroom).

With those kind of sideshows going on simultaneously, and with the tacit admission that the Manny trade meant that the 2010 season was all but over, you could be forgiven for forgetting that there was even a game tonight. Hiroki Kuroda didn’t forget, though, taking a no-hitter into the 8th – the 7th time in his short Dodger career that he’s gone at least five innings and allowed two hits or fewer.

Kuroda’s always seemed a bit underappreciated, largely because he quietly goes about his job and often comes up with little to show for it. Even in those six previous starts allowing two hits or less, he came away with the win only twice. As Dave of Big League Stew noted as the game headed into the late innings, Kuroda’s win/loss record is a complete joke:

Kuroda’s a fine example of a pitcher’s W-L record not meaning bupkus. 26-28 my tuchas.

After everything that happened today, would anyone have been surprised if Roy Halladay had come out and just destroyed this team? Of course not. Kuroda deserves our thanks, not just for tonight’s performance, but for reminding us that no matter how ridiculous things get outside the lines, it’s always worth watching what happens on the field.

******

Hey, the night belonged to Kuroda, but seeing Rod Barajas, SoCal native and longtime Dodger fan, hit a homer in his first home game with the Blue was pretty nice too. I’m starting to get a little worried that his hot start is going to fool fans into thinking that he’s, you know, good at baseball, because 34-year-olds with career OBP’s of .283 who just got let go by the Mets don’t generally all of a sudden figure it out. There’s really no scenario in which I’m okay with him as the starter next year, but I’m warming to the idea of bringing him back on the cheap to share time with Russell Martin, assuming Martin returns.

Really, half the reason I brought up Barajas was to post this picture:

Barajas over Halladay? You’re goddamn right. And that’s even his ball in the top there!

******

Oh look, the obligatory “Bill Plaschke bashes Manny” story. It’s so predictably wrong that I really could write an entire piece on it, but I can’t allow myself to devote another entire post to this “journalist”, so I’ll just hit the high points.

But, with the exception of an occasional lucky moment when a fat pitch hit his slow bat, he departed the Dodgers the moment he was busted for being a performance-enhancing drug cheat.

Imagine if he didn’t have a “slow bat”? I’m sure he’d have done much better than 13th in MLB in OPS, or the 21st best season of all time by a 38-year-old. Nah, I’m sure that was all “luck”.

Three years ago, he bailed on the Boston Red Sox in his final plate appearance there by refusing to lift the bat off his shoulder on a three-pitch strikeout. On Sunday, he topped that bit of despicable behavior by being ejected from his final Dodgers game for arguing the first pitch of a pinch-hit appearance. Really, Manny? The first pitch? Couldn’t you have given the Dodgers at least two more?

Except.. that the pitch was basically in the opposite batter’s box, and just about everyone agreed on that. Joe Torre, with absolutely zero reason to defend Manny and every reason to hang him out to dry, backed him up after the game and criticized the umpire. I mean, even LA Dodger Talk – who I usually wouldn’t agree with if they claimed the sky was blue and that Sandy Koufax was a Dodger – was on the same page on this one. Of course, Bill’s never been one to let “facts” get in the way of a good story.

For all the wigs and wackiness and Mannywood mania, you know what Ramirez actually gave the Dodgers?

Ten weeks. Ten good weeks.

Well, ten historically excellent weeks. And then about five more great ones before he was suspended. And two great ones after his return, before getting hit by a pitch. Some pretty good, if not great, weeks to end 2009, and a blazing start to 2010 before getting hurt again. So there’s that.

You say he led the Dodgers back to the NLCS the following year? I say, and the Dodgers agreed, that they would have reached it without him. Weren’t they in first place when he came back from his 50-game suspension?

Wait, so all the games that they won with him – you know, the ones that had them 6.5 games up when he was suspended – they don’t count anymore? Because, I feel like they did.

I would love to cheer Ramirez from life’s dugout as he fights off collapse in the final inning of his storied career. But I’m taking a shower.

Oh, ha, I see what he did there. He’s referencing a manufactured “controversy” that he started, that few people cared about at the time, and which no one remembers now. Well done, Bill.

******

Now that I’ve wasted too much time on that has-been, be sure to check out someone who actually knows what they’re talking about, Chad from Memories of Kevin Malone. His piece today on what’s ailing Matt Kemp is a must-read, particularly for the breakdown (with video!) of his mechanics:

Striding forward on a consistent plane allows the hitter to keep his weight back, keep his hips closed, and keep his timing regular.  The actual end alignment of the feet doesn’t really matter that much, but the important thing to note is what happens when Kemp’s hips begin to drift away from the ball as he tries to start his swing.

When he prematurely releases his hips through his stride action, his bat dips further under the contact zone than intended, in order to compensate for left side pulling away, and the bat head will be slower to get to the launch position because the core is the primary mover in bat speed.  So by Kemp not having his stride in gear, instead of keeping his weight back, power stored, and remaining on time, he’s off-balance, drained of bat speed, and late on pitches.

If you haven’t already, be sure to check out the entire thing.

Saying Goodbye to Mannywood


Say this for the 2+ years Manny Ramirez spent in Dodger blue: it was never boring. He was, at various points, both the most beloved Dodger we’ve seen in years (late 2008, when everyone had Manny-branded blue dreadlocks) and the most reviled (mid-2009, when he was suspended for PEDs and every self-righteous twit with a media pass fell over themselves to vilify him). It’s hard, if not impossible, to recall another Dodger who ran the spectrum of emotions quite like he did.

When the trade was made, we were ecstatic. (Personally, I remember exactly the moment I heard: I was on tour with a band I was playing with, and we were eating at a floating restaurant in the middle of the river between Cincinnati and Kentucky. I received a text message saying the Dodgers had acquired Manny but the return was unsure, and I replied with “Great! Don’t be Kemp Don’t be Kemp Don’t be Kemp”.)

Bill Plaschke status: not a huge fan of the trade right when it was made.

It wasn’t Kemp, of course; it was Andy LaRoche and Bryan Morris. That seemed like a pretty good deal at the time, as LaRoche had yet to prove himself and Morris was injured. It seems like a steal now, since LaRoche has just a .641 OPS in parts of three seasons in Pittsburgh and Morris has only made it to AA for the first time this season. Meanwhile, Manny was a king; his ridiculous 1.232 OPS to finish 2008 with the Dodgers was only the 6th best season by OPS+ (minimum 225 plate appearances) in the history of the National League. In the playoffs, he hit over .500 with 4 homers as the Dodgers went to the NLCS.

As good as that was, it seemed even better to us coming as it did immediately after the crushing failures of Andruw Jones and Juan Pierre. Manny was a hero in Los Angeles that fall, and here’s how we felt about him at the time, in our 2008 season in review:

Manny was simply everything we could have hoped for and so much more.  He had the best offensive stretch in Dodger history and it’s kind of ironic and twisted that one of the other reasons we were able to land him was due to our center fielder having the worst stretch in Dodger history.  But even if Manny doesn’t come back and jettisons to another team, I will always be thankful to the man for what he brought to the team, to the city, and to all of us.  Unforgettable.

Manny was a free agent after 2008, and if that had been that, our lives might all have been different right now. But the thought of seeing him over a full season was too much; after what he’d done in a partial year in 2008, couldn’t he hit about 120 homers over a full year?

Bill Plaschke status, last week of the 2008 season: don’t resign Manny.

So the Dodgers, intoxicated by Manny’s production, couldn’t let him move on, and for all of his bluster, Scott Boras wasn’t going to take Manny away from a place where he’d rebuilt his image after his ugly exit from Boston. Anyone remember how painful that process was? Here’s what I said when he finally signed in March of 2009:

In November, the Dodgers offered 2/$45. He wanted 5 or 6 years at $100m+. Not only did Boras not even get them to meet in the middle, he ended up settling for… 2/$45m. While getting that much annual salary in this economy is still a feat, it’s still far less than he’d originally demanded.

Sure, it’s all worth adding a hitter like Manny to the lineup, and when he’s pummeling homers in May we won’t care. But there’s only one thing worse than watching millionaires argue with millionaires in the face of a terrible economy… and that’s watching them do it for four months only to end up with nearly the exact same terms that were on the table in November. This whole process was completely brutal for all of us.

Now, you might be thinking to yourself, “damn, I don’t miss that entire winter of watching Boras and the Dodgers go back and forth. But wasn’t there something else that made it especially painful?” Oh, that’s right. Jamie McCourt had to help matters and open her big mouth with gems like these:

“If you bring somebody in to play and pay them, pick a number, $30 million, does that seem a little weird to you?” Jamie McCourt asked in an interview at the Evergreen Recreation Center in East Los Angeles. “That’s what we’re trying to figure out. We’re really trying to see it through the eyes of our fans. We’re really trying to understand, would they rather have the 50 fields?”

Seriously, I read that post of mine for the first time since then, and it made my blood boil again. Remember, Dodger fans: Jamie McCourt says that if you want your team to sign free agents, you hate children.

Bill Plaschke status, during negotiations: don’t sign Manny, get an “ace” like Jake Peavy.

2009 finally began, and Manny got off to a roll. On May 6, he was hitting .348/.492/.641, better than his career averages. Then, on May 7… disaster struck, and I need not remind you why. I’m not going to waste time defending Manny here; he did what he did, he got found out, and he has no one to blame for that but himself. Just like Andy Pettitte, just like Guillermo Mota, just like countless other players. But other than Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, who were hammered for various other reasons as well, Manny was hit far more viciously than just about anyone else caught up in the steroid era.

No, I don’t think it’s going too far to say that many mainstream columnists had it out for Manny, and could barely contain their glee when he was suspended. Like, for example, here. And here. And here. Really, that’s what bothered me more than anything. You want to get on Manny for cheating and letting the team down? Sure, that’s fair. I did. But some of these jokers crossed that line by about a thousand miles, as though Manny had set fire to a school of orphans. Who were holding puppies. Adorable puppies.

Bill Plaschke status: practically having a seizure of self-righteousness.

It got worse, though, the longer Manny was out. Juan Pierre stepped in, and was admittedly great… for the first 40% of Manny’s suspension. Then he was worse than ever for the last 60%, but that didn’t seem to matter. Manny was a cheater. Juan played hard. Manny was lazy, and wouldn’t talk to the media. Juan got the most out of his god-given talent. Manny’s numbers couldn’t be trusted. Juan’s numbers didn’t matter, because he had “heart”.

God, I hate the media sometimes.

Bill Plaschke status: steadfastly claiming that he would never go see a Manny rehab game… and then immediately going to a Manny rehab game.

Then Manny returned, and he was a shell of himself from the moment he returned, clearly affected by not being on the juice. That is what happened, right? That’s how I remember the news being reported. What’s that, the facts don’t exactly match the narrative you’ve come up with? Screw it! We’ve got a story to stick to.

Bill Plaschke status: outright inventing stories about Manny disrespecting fans, despite pictures that clearly show the exact opposite.

Well, not quite. Despite the fact that I could link to a million stories claiming that Manny was useless after his return, that’s not exactly how it went down. In fact, I broke it down after the season:

1) Opening Day (4/6) -> Suspension (5/6): .348/.492/.641 1.133

Vintage Manny. Better than his career average, actually, so pretty damned good. I can already hear the squawking that “he was still on the juice!”, but don’t forget: he failed his test in Spring Training – and that for a masking agent, not the actual thing -  so while he may have still been on the ride at this point, he was hardly shooting up before games.

2) Suspension (5/7 -> 7/2)

Dick. No question about it. Dick. Not only for “letting us down”, if you feel personally offended, but by robbing the team of its best bat for six weeks – and by adding insult to injury by subjecting us to Juan Pierre during that time. Dick.

3) Return (7/3) -> HBP from Homer Bailey (7/21): .333/.429/.688 1.116

His slightly lower OBP was offset by a bump in SLG, equaling nearly the same OPS as he had before the suspension. I don’t remember anyone complaining that he was no good clean during these two weeks, right?

4) Playing with injured hand (7/22 -> 8/28): .264/.366/.400 .766

Despite constant refusals to admit that taking Bailey’s mid-90s heater off his hand was an issue, Manny was clearly not the same player here. Still, no player ever admits that they’re injured, and if this was related to the juice, he’d have been playing like this as soon as he returned, right? Besides, once he’d had a few weeks since the HBP, presumably healing his hand…

5) End of season stretch (8/29 -> 10/3): .241/.400/.517 .917

…his OBP and SLG perked right up. Granted, the batting average isn’t great. Fortunately, we all know better than to rely on batting average as any sort of indicator, and a .917 OPS is still top 20 if he’d put that up over the entire season.

As you can see, when he wasn’t thrilling the crowd with Bobbleslams, Manny was doing just fine until he got hit in the hand by Homer Bailey. The demonization of Manny for the rest of 2009 came from A) writers with personal vendettas against him, B) everyone who valued Juan Pierre the player far too much because they liked Juan Pierre the person, and C) everyone who doesn’t understand that a .241 batting average can still be pretty damned good if it gets you a .917 OPS.  It’s that kind of media fail which lead to posts like this, wondering why so many fans preferred Pierre to Manny despite overwhelming evidence that he’s a far lesser player.

Bill Plaschke status: manufacturing ridiculous outrage over Manny being in the shower after being removed from a playoff game.

Heading into 2010, expectations were high. The expected controversy over whether Manny would exercise his opt-out clause never came, as he quietly acknowledged he wouldn’t be passing up his guaranteed 2010 payday on November 6. With that out of the way, conditions were ripe for a comeback. Manny had had the entire winter to rest his hand, he was in a contract year, and if the thought of playing for his next payday didn’t motivate him, the embarrassment he’d suffered in 2009 certainly would.

Well, it didn’t work out exactly like that. Manny landed on the disabled list with leg issues three separate times, and played just 65 games with the Dodgers, the fewest in his career other than a cup of coffee as a 21-year-old with the 1993 Indians. Eight homers, 232 plate appearances, months on the disabled list, and far more Scott Podsednik and Garret Anderson in left field than we ever could have dreamed. That’s not exactly what we’d hoped for, I’ll grant you.

Classic Manny? Clearly not.

But again, nor was it the post-steroid disaster that the media liked to portray it as. Manny’s .915 OPS was 13th in MLB, among players with at least 225 PA. That’s higher than players like Adrian Gonzalez, Joe Mauer, Prince Fielder, Ryan Zimmerman, and Evan Longoria. Remember, PED suspension or not, we’re still talking about a guy who’s 38 years old. A .915 OPS is 91% of his career average 1.000 OPS; for a 38-year-old to get that close to matching his usual Hall-of-Fame level is impressive. In fact, it was the 21st highest OPS+ of any ballplayer 38 or older (220 PA or more) in history, and the list above is littered with names like Ted Williams, Hank Aaron, Babe Ruth, and Ty Cobb.

Bill Plaschke status: writing sob stories about the removal of Mannywood.

I’m not saying he was worth every penny this year; it’s hard to do so with how much time he missed. But to keep up the facade that he could no longer produce is just wrong. If the numbers above aren’t convincing proof of that, how about the fact that they’ve scored more than 5 runs per game with him in the lineup, and fewer than 4 without him? If he’s not classic, “in his Boston prime” Manny, or superpowered “just got to LA” Manny, he’s still an effective force in the lineup, one the Dodgers have proven they cannot win without.

Manny ended his Dodger career with a bizarre ejection after just one pitch while pinch-hitting with the bases loaded, which is oddly appropriate. He also ended his Dodger career atop the team’s all-time leaderboards in OBP, SLG, OPS, and OPS+ (minimum 500 at-bats), all in exchange for a failed third baseman, a mid-level pitching prospect, and a ton of heartburn. Now, he’s gone, dropped onto the White Sox for nothing but salary relief, and no matter how you feel about Manny’s time in LA, there’s not much argument we got exactly what we signed up for. Dominant offensive performance, more than a little controversy, and a less-than-glorious exit? Yeah, that sounds about right.

Well worth the trouble, I say. So long, Manny. You’re a petulant child, and I don’t mourn your loss. But few players who have ever put on the Dodger uniform have provided us with as much excitement and production.

Just Get It Over With Already (Updated) (He’s Gone)

We all know what the question is going to be in the aftermath of today’s game: did Manny Ramirez purposefully argue with the home plate umpire with the bases loaded, knowing that such a move would get him immediately ejected, in order to make a statement to the Dodgers to move him? My initial judgment of the strike one call was “outside, but probably not egregiously so”, and Vin Scully noted that he can’t remember Manny ever speaking to an umpire when he disagrees with a call, though that of course can’t be verified.

That’s what everyone is going to want to know, and the answer is: it does not matter.

Look, who knows why Manny did what he did. Maybe he really is trying to get the team to trade him (though please, no comparisons to “doing the same thing” for the Red Sox in July 2008; he had a 1.060 OPS that month). Maybe he doesn’t want to be traded, but he’s just upset at Joe Torre that he’s been benched so many times in a row. Maybe he just really did think the call was a poor one. Maybe Gary Cederstrom, who’s been an umpire since 1989, called Manny out on a questionable call in 1997 and Manny wanted vengeance. Maybe Cederstrom’s in his fantasy football league, and he stole the quarterback Manny wanted. Maybe the little green alien that only Manny can see and hear told him to do it. Who knows? It could be any number of things, and no matter what you read – and good lord, this kind of scenario is just made for a Bill Plaschke puff piece – it makes no difference.

Why? Because Manny was already as good as gone, or at least he should be. I’ve been saying for weeks that the season is over and that they should be selling anyone they can sell; it was a week ago that I argued Manny should be moved. Today’s petulant outburst  – if indeed that’s what it was, though it will probably be viewed that way no matter what – doesn’t really change that fact.

People can complain all they like that Manny’s act may have cost the Dodgers some runs today, and perhaps that’s true (though no one can say for sure). But today’s loss is on Ted Lilly, Ronald Belisario, and Octavio Dotel being unable to keep the Rockies off the board (and don’t even get me started on the inevitability of Lilly regressing as a Dodger). It’s on Torre (or those above him) refusing to put their best team on the field. It’s on Andre Ethier for striking out four times, and for he and James Loney combining to leave about thirty men on base.

Really, this team is exactly where we’d thought they’d be about a week ago. The short winning streak was nice, but don’t forget that three of those wins came against the hapless Brewers. They needed to turn that momentum into a sweep in Colorado to even have a prayer of contention, but instead the superior Rockies won the series, putting more distance between themselves and the Dodgers in the process.

It’s time to admit the obvious, stop messing around, and start making moves. They’re 5th in the Wild Card race, 6.5 games out, with Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, and Matt Cain staring at them this week. They’re 13-18 in the 31 games since the 100-game mark. Don’t let the 3% chance you still have in 2010 cost you in the years to come; it’s over. Today should be Manny’s last at-bat as a Dodger, regardless of the way he acted. It should be Lilly’s last game as a Dodger. It really ought to be the last we see of guys like Octavio Dotel & Hiroki Kuroda as well, but I’ll keep my dreams reasonable.

Sell, Ned. Sell.

Update! Dylan Hernandez reports that the Dodgers will allow Manny to be claimed by the White Sox tomorrow. He claims that no players will be involved, just Chicago taking on Manny’s salary. I’ll believe it when I see it.

Update #2! USA Today‘s Bob Nightengale is reporting that the Dodgers are choosing between dumping all of Manny’s salary on the White Sox by allowing the waiver claim, or accepting minor-league 3B Jon Gilmore while making the White Sox pick up only part of the money.

Gilmore, 22, was the #33 pick in the 2007 draft by Atlanta, and was traded to Chicago after 2008 as part of the Javier Vazquez deal. He’s hitting .318/.354/.400 for high-A Winston-Salem in the Carolina League, but has just 14 homers in four seasons and has committed 78 errors in just the last two. I think I’d rather just take the money.

Fun fact, though: Gilmore’s sister is married to Ben Zobrist of the Rays. So there’s that.

Update #3! It seems to be official, he’s gone. I’ve got 2200 words ready on the Manny era, so be sure to check back tomorrow for that.

There’s A Lot More Going On Here

When Manny Ramirez sat on Thursday after getting on base four times on Wednesday, it was to be expected – he never plays day games after night games.

When he sat on Friday, it was annoying, but somewhat plausible as he had just one hit in fifteen career at-bats against Ubaldo Jimenez.

When he sat on Saturday, the situation got increasingly ridiculous. Joe Torre said he “liked the energy” that Scott Podsednik brings and was worried about Manny’s defense in the large Coors Field outfield, ignoring that Podsednik isn’t much of an outfielder either and brings about 1/100th of what Manny does to the plate.

Today? Manny is out of the lineup again for the fourth straight day, and what this screams to me is that Joe Torre’s been lying to us, to his credit.

Yesterday, Torre claimed (backed up by Ned Colletti) that he had not been ordered to sit Manny. But for all the frustration we’ve directed at Torre in his three years here, I refuse to believe that’s true. Torre’s not a great manager, but he’s not an idiot either. There is no rational baseball reason – not one – for benching one of the ten best right-handed hitters of all time in the most important games of the season, even if Manny is only 80% of what he once was.

More evidence comes in the fact that Matt Kemp is still playing. We all know that Torre loves his “gritty” “hustle” guys like Podsednik and Juan Pierre, so even if Torre really does believe his platitudes about Podsednik’s “energy” and insisted on having him on the lineup every day, the obvious move there – and one he’s done before – would be to move Podsednik to center and bench Kemp for a day.

That hasn’t happened, and no reasonable manager would choose to sit Manny four days in a row for baseball reasons (and that’s without even considering what Manny’s disposition is like after being benched.) So the only rational explanation here is that Torre’s being less than truthful – which I don’t blame him for, because you don’t want to go public about such things until the ink is dry – and that word from above has come to not play Manny for fear of injury sinking a deal. (Personally, I’d rather see a larger deal with Chicago; having put both J.J. Putz & Matt Thornton on the DL, their bullpen is in shambles, so how about trying to send them Octavio Dotel & George Sherrill too?)

And if not? If everything Torre is saying is true? Then all we can do is pray that the last out of game 162 comes as soon as possible.