Ted Lilly Could Be More Valuable Than You Think
August 20, 2010 at 10:34 am | Posted in Ted Lilly | 29 Comments
To say Ted Lilly has been a revelation as a Dodger is a bit of an understatement; not only has he allowed just 4 runs in 28 innings since arriving, winning each of his 4 starts, but his two-hit shutout of Colorado last night registered the highest Game Score for a Dodger since Chan Ho Park did the same against Milwaukee in July of 2001.
He’s been about a thousand times more effective than even the most optimistic among us would have ever hoped for, and for that he’s to be commended. Now if you remember, when he was acquired, I didn’t like the trade. It wasn’t that I didn’t like Lilly, who I acknowledged was an upgrade to the rotation, but that the the rotation wasn’t the problem as much as the offense was, and that the Dodgers weren’t good enough this year to be trading the future for 2010 anyway.
That hasn’t changed; if anything they’ve fallen further out of contention and the offense has gotten worse as Rafael Furcal & Russell Martin have been injured and Blake DeWitt was swapped for Ryan Theriot. The only thing that really has changed for the better is that Lilly has looked like a completely different pitcher since arriving in Los Angeles.
Think about it – Lilly’s good, and has been for a long time, but he’s not this good. His BABIP as a Dodger is just .138, and that’s not going to last forever. If he keeps this up for the rest of the season, that’s great, but it’s not going to put the Dodgers in the playoffs and it’s only going to price him out of their league should they wish to retain him in the offseason. Much more likely, he is at the absolute peak of his value right now, because with the performance he’s shown, there’s really nowhere to go but down.
As Jesse Spector of the New York Daily News said after last night’s win:
Ted Lilly would be the best acquisition of the trade deadline had he gone to an actual contender.
And he’s right. But who says it’s too late? Pitching the way he has, wouldn’t St. Louis love to slot him behind Chris Carpenter & Adam Wainwright, as rookie phenom Jaime Garcia is beginning to show signs of wear? Would San Diego not be interested in adding a veteran arm alongside Jon Garland to protect against concerns of young ace Mat Latos overextending himself? With the August waiver rules, it’s unlikely that he’d get to the top of the American League, but even the Yankees are having some issues in the rotation with Andy Pettitte injured and A.J. Burnett inconsistent at best.
The point is, Ted Lilly‘s been awesome for the Dodgers, and there’s two ways to extract value from him for the remainder of the season; let him make 6-7 more starts for LA and help you finish 7 games out, or let him go to the playoffs with another team and possibly bring back prospects, while finishing 10 games out.
I know which route I’d take.
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Which is more likely? Ted Lilly being traded before the waiver deadline? Or Jonathan Broxton?
Comment by Albert Lyu— August 20, 2010 #
There’s a 0% chance Broxton gets traded.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— August 20, 2010 #
I would go for dealing Lilly to a real contender….like the Yankees. Hell, with Berkman out, and if Manny can pass through waivers, deal both to the Yankees for a package featuring Austin Romine and lefty Manny Banuelos. I am sure we will eat some of Manny’s deal, so we could get a third prospect. The only problem is that Ned believes in leprechauns and lost causes…like the Dodgers.
Comment by Grabarkewitz— August 20, 2010 #
I don’t really think Lilly would get through waivers like Manny would, so the Yankees are probably unrealistic. I doubt he’d get past SD and STL in the NL. Maybe the Reds, also.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— August 20, 2010 #
I agree with MSTI that I doubt Lilly would fall all the way to the Yankees, but if I had to choose a player(s) in return for Lilly, it would start with Brandon Laird, a 22 year old 3B prospect out of Cypress JC (2007-27th Round), who has a line of .286 .347 .509 .855 w/ 25(2B), 25(HR), 97(RBI) between AA & AAA this year.
Comment by Bluefan— August 20, 2010 #
Ned’s gonna hang on to Lilly because he probably thinks the Dodgers are still in contention.
Damn I hate Ned.
Comment by dodgerbobble— August 20, 2010 #
What would the Dodgers get for unloading Lilly? Would they get more than cash? Anything the Dodgers would get would be nice but I would hope that they could get a prospect for bolstering the pitching staff for another team in the NL.
Comment by Oral Kershyster— August 20, 2010 #
It’s hard to say. Since he’d be claimed on waivers, the market would be only one team, limiting the competition. However, his performance since coming to LA has really increased his value. It certainly wouldn’t be any sort of A+ top prospect, but even a useful piece would be nice.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— August 20, 2010 #
Plus he is a Type A and those draft picks are valuable to a real team with a real owner who actually is interested in the team’s success than using it as a checkbook.
Comment by Grabarkewitz— August 24, 2010 #
I understand your logic, and it makes sense, but really can’t stomach having the non-contending Dodgers, or maybe “contending only in Ned Colleti’s head Dodgers”, trading Lilly to the division-leading Padres. Something’s just wrong in the world if that happens.
To me, the best thing is to somehow sign him next year. Is that in the cards at all? About how much would Lilly command on the open market? A year of Kershaw-Bills-Padilla-Lilly-Kuroda (??) would be pretty acceptable if we have some offense to go along with it.
Comment by Steve— August 20, 2010 #
I think he’ll get paid well. He’s coming off a 4 yr, $40m deal with the Cubs, and he’s probably going to win 10 games for the 8th year in a row. (Before you gawk that I mentioned wins, people who write checks still find that impressive.) He’ll be 35 in January, so he won’t get 4 years again, but I could definitely see him getting 3/24. Dodgers won’t pay that.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— August 20, 2010 #
Well, the Dodgers SHOULDN’T pay that, but with Kuroda and Padilla both becoming free agents after the season, don’t you think there’s a better-than-average chance that Coletti tries to resign him?
Comment by Jorge— August 20, 2010 #
Lilly is probably going to get a multi-year deal. The Dodgers might be able to entice him with 2-3 years at $5-10 million/yr. Spending a year or two with the Dodgers might keep him local but these last two months won’t be a good representation unless Ned can convince Lilly that he will fix the team.
Comment by Oral Kershyster— August 20, 2010 #
I want to see Lilly traded, his value is high indeed and could net us some talent in return, bit I also want him resigned for something like 2 yrs/16 or even 3 yrs/21. Would we hurt our chances of a resign if we deal him now?
Comment by tommys.belly— August 20, 2010 #
If the Dodgers really want to resign Lilly, it would make more sense to keep him through September – otherwise, they might lose next year’s draft picks (and their position will be higher after this year’s disappointing record).
Comment by WBB— August 20, 2010 #
I’m not sure I follow. The only way draft picks are involved is if the Dodgers offer Lilly arbitration, which I doubt they would. There’s no way they could lose picks here.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— August 20, 2010 #
I think WBB means that if the Dodgers trade him, and then re-sign him in the off-season, the team we traded him to would have offered him arbitration, and as a Type A Free Agent we would lose a draft pick if he was re-signed under this scenario.
Comment by Bluefan— August 20, 2010 #
Ahh.. I see now.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— August 20, 2010 #
Best thing the Dodgers can do is offer him as many as said a Pinerio like deal for two years with some nice bonuses. If he doesn’t want that I would gamble on the arbitration, given the market for someone like him and the Wolf contract of 3 years 30million form the Brewers.
Dodgers then get the draft picks. If he is traded now, with Waivers it is unlikely he gets to someone who really has the prospects the Dodgers need. If you could point out a team in the NL who had some good young catchers it might be interesting, but I just don’t see a good deal out there.
Comment by Louis— August 20, 2010 #
MSTI,
I don’t mind trading Lilly cuz the logic is sound. One thing I notice about this site and many of the redundant “trade-get rid of him-he’s a bumb” posts are the players the Dodgers “should” and can get are never mentioned. What players do you (anyone) potentially see the Dodgers getting next year in LF, C, 2B, 3B and pitchng staff? Getting anything for Lilly is better than getting nada. It’s easy for me to spend the owners money but I still think the payroll should be increased. The Dodgers are a big market team and they/we should spend like one.
Comment by Adonis— August 20, 2010 #
Each offseason, I do a full plan of what I would do to stock the team for the following year. For right now, it doesn’t matter to me what they get for Lilly, as long as its something.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— August 20, 2010 #
tru dat.
Comment by Adonis— August 21, 2010 #
I really really would like to see the Dodgers offload some of their upcoming free agents like Lilly and Kuroda…
Thing I don’t quite understand is why does it matter who we deal him to? If I understand correctly when a player is placed on waivers multiple teams place claims and the Dodgers have to deal with the team with the worst record. Why is it relevant whether he falls to the Yankees or not, no matter who wins the waiver claim they will still have to give up prospects, right?
Comment by Jason— August 21, 2010 #
It matters because just because a team claims someone, it doesn’t mean they HAVE to make a deal. They might just be doing it to block another team from getting him. So if a team like, say, the Giants puts in a claim to block the Padres from getting him, and the Giants don’t actually want to make a trade, the Dodgers are stuck with him.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— August 21, 2010 #
Trading Ted Lilly to a contender might help the Dodgers in the future, but it doesn’t appear that Ned can plan for the future. Or, to put it another way, his idea of the future is tomorrow.
Steve
Comment by Stephen Gilbert— August 21, 2010 #
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