Vicente Padilla Keeps On Rolling
August 5, 2010 at 12:51 am | Posted in Hong-Chih Kuo, Joe Torre, Ryan Theriot, TOOTBLAN, Vicente Padilla | 26 Comments
If you didn’t watch the game, and you’re just seeing that the Dodgers won 9-0, you probably think it was a laugher. Not quite; it was 4-0 until the 8th inning, and while seeing Andre Ethier break out with two doubles (off a lefty!) and a homer among the six extra-base hits by the Dodgers was sure fun, it’s obvious that Vicente Padilla is the story here.
Padilla took a no-hitter into the 7th in throwing his fourth career shutout (and first as a Dodger), baffling the Padres with painfully slow “soap bubbles” scattered among 90+ mph heaters, with James Loney just inches away from snaring a liner that may have kept the no-no going.
That, amazingly, is Padilla’s eighth straight start without having allowed more than two earned runs. No, really: look at his game log since his return from the DL:
As I mentioned on Twitter earlier, I can’t wait to see what the free agent market does for him. He missed two months with arm trouble, accidentally shot himself in the offseason, has a long reputatation as a jerk… and is pitching like an absolute ace.
To top it off, he even contributed two hits, which means that every time I make the joke that “Torre shouldn’t have pinch-hit Garret Anderson for the pitcher, because Anderson’s not any more likely to get a hit than the pitcher is,” it’s all too true.
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TOOTBLAN alert! We have a TOOTBLAN alert! It took Ryan Theriot only four games as a Dodger to do it, but we saw a real live TOOTBLAN tonight. In the bottom of the 7th, he reached second on an error by Chase Headley, and advanced to third on an Andre Ethier groundout. With one out, Matt Kemp hit a hard grounder to the shortstop. Theriot, for some reason, broke home and was out by approximately the distance between Chicago and Los Angeles. Now that’s a TOOTBLAN.
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I would love to go one game, just one, without dropping some negativity about Joe Torre. I don’t really enjoy it as much as it probably seems I do. It’s just, we all know about Hong-Chih Kuo‘s injury history. When you have a guy like that, you know that his arm could go at any second, and you use the bullets he has on high-value innings. So after needlessly using him last night (Ted Lilly had only set down twenty Padres in a row), Torre had Kuo (and Jonathan Broxton, for that matter) warming up in the 8th inning in what was at the time a four-run game.
Kuo, of course, was never needed, but since he had to throw two days in a row, it’s fair to question his availability for tomorrow’s game. Every pitch rolls on that odometer, so for the one millionth time this season, leave Kuo alone unless you need him.
Martin & Paul Exit, Ellis & Johnson Return
August 4, 2010 at 9:49 pm | Posted in A.J. Ellis, Reed Johnson, Russell Martin, Xavier Paul | 9 CommentsGiving credit on this to Seth of dingersblog.com:
Russell Martin underwent MRI today, right hip labral tear, he’ll be re-evaluated tomorrow. Sounds like he’s out a while
Tear? That doesn’t sound good. Dylan Hernandez followed up with:
Russell Martin to the 15-day DL with right hip labral tear; Reed Johnson activated.
This comes after Xavier Paul was optioned back to AAA in order to bring up A.J. Ellis, though you could really read it as “Martin for Ellis, Paul for Johnson.”
Yet Garret Anderson survives. And Scott Podsednik & Ryan Theriot are hitting 1-2 again. Actually, it’s worse than that. You know I don’t post nightly lineups here, but good LORD:
Podsednik LF
Theriot 2B
Ethier RF
Kemp CF
Blake 3B
Belliard 1B
Carroll SS
Ausmus C
Padilla P
All that’s missing is Anderson in RF and you’ve got the worst-case scenario, though this is pretty close. Meanwhile, Jay Gibbons homered again for ABQ tonight. We’re supposed to have confidence because… why, exactly?
Let’s Pack It In
August 4, 2010 at 8:20 am | Posted in Jeff Weaver, Joe Torre, Manny Ramirez, Rafael Furcal, Russell Martin, Ted Lilly, Zach Lee | 47 Comments
Credit where credit is due: Ted Lilly was excellent last night. After allowing an early home run to Miguel Tejada, he retired twenty in a row and left having struck out five without issuing a walk. Now why, after just seven innings and 87 pitches, Joe Torre felt the need to replace him (once again, it’s not like Garret Anderson offers more at the plate than your standard pitcher) to squeeze another inning out of Hong-Chih Kuo is beyond me, but that’s pretty much par for the course, isn’t it?
So good for Lilly, and good for us. While I didn’t like the trade for a variety of reasons, none of them were because I thought Lilly was useless; he’s certainly an improvement on what Carlos Monasterios would have offered from that slot. Unfortunately, Lilly’s nice outing was somewhat obscured by all of the other bad news from yesterday, and there was quite a bit of it.
Injuries!
1) Jeff Weaver was placed on the DL with left knee tendinitis, and – stop me if you’ve heard this before – had concealed the injury from coaches for about two weeks, which I’m sure had nothing to do with his allowing ten earned runs in his last five games.
2) Manny Ramirez had what was termed “a setback” in his rehab, and no date has been set for his return. At this point, I’d be surprised to see him back before the end of August, which means those who advocate trading him should probably look for something else to do. Update: Buster Olney, via MLBTR, notes that players on the DL cannot be passed through waivers. I’d say the chances of Manny moving at this point are maybe 5%.
3) Russell Martin felt pain in his hip on an awkward slide last night and is headed for an MRI. While I’d usually joke that his absence wouldn’t really hurt the lineup that much, he did have the only two RBI to back up Lilly.
4) Perhaps worst of all, Rafael Furcal strained his back in Monday night’s game and required an MRI as well. He’s hoping to avoid the DL for now, but won’t play tonight either. Let’s not speculate too hard here, but when you have ever heard news that Furcal’s back hurts and had it end well?
The offense!
If not for the injuries and Lilly (and Kuo and Jonathan Broxton), the bigger story here would be that the offense, once again, was non-existent. Scott Podsednik and Ryan Theriot combined to go 1-8, with Podsednik 4-24 and Theriot 1-12 as Dodgers. Boy, who could have seen that coming? It’s not just them, of course, since Matt Kemp and Casey Blake each went hitless (though each walked, and scored on Martin’s hit), but once again the offense contributed nothing in eight of the nine innings.
With Manny no closer to returning and now Furcal & Martin possibly on the shelf, things don’t look like they’re headed in the right direction on the offensive side. And Torre’s not helping, because apparently he’s learned nothing from the Juan Pierre experience – it doesn’t matter how fast Podsednik and Theriot are, you simply cannot bat them 1-2 in the lineup if you expect to score any runs.
I get, of course, that Furcal’s absence doesn’t help him fill out the lineup card. Still, no one had a higher OBP in yesterday’s lineup than Jamey Carroll, and it’s not particularly close. Since Carroll looks like he’s going to be playing for the foreseeable future, he has to be hitting higher in the lineup in order to give the middle of the order a prayer of having people to drive in.
Of course, when the bottom 3rd of the lineup could be Ausmus-Theriot-pitcher, and the only reliable threat (Furcal) has been subtracted, it’s hard to get excited about any part of the lineup.
The draft!
Remember back in June, when the Dodgers drafted highly touted high schooler Zach Lee, and the pick was widely panned because Lee had a commitment to LSU and was considered unsignable? Yeah, about that…
Dodgers no closer to signing top pick
LOS ANGELES — There haven’t been any conversations between the Dodgers and first-round Draft pick Zach Lee since shortly after Lee was selected, assistant general manager of scouting Logan White said on Tuesday.
Lee, a 6-foot-4, 195-pound right-handed pitcher from Texas, was considered to be a difficult sign going into the Draft because of a commitment to play quarterback at Louisiana State and reported bonus demands in excess of $3 million. A day after the Dodgers took Lee at No. 28 overall in June, LSU issued a statement reaffirming Lee’s desire to play college football.
“We had get-to-know-you dialogues when we first drafted him, and that’s it,” White said. “… He likes football, he likes baseball. He’s a good kid.”
Granted, most of these negotiations do tend to go right to the deadline; you’ll notice that most of the other first-rounders haven’t signed yet either. Still: wonderful.
Which all means…
Yesterday’s win aside, the Dodgers are still seven games out in the wild card, and any hopes they have for postseason play rest on them putting together a historic run. With the offensive performance and the injuries piling up, does anyone really have faith in that happening?
It’s hard to say this, but it’s time to be realistic. Lilly’s debut was nice, but it only covered up more offensive shortcomings, and now without Furcal, Martin and Manny this team really has no prayer. I never thought I’d say this three days after the trading deadline, but it’s time to sell. See what’s out there for guys like Lilly, Podsednik, Octavio Dotel – maybe even Vicente Padilla, Hiroki Kuroda, and Casey Blake, if you could get out from under his salary for next year. I’d rather finish ten games out with pieces for the future, than six games out with nothing to show for it.
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Update: Found this on Olney’s blog today, and thought it was interesting. Former catcher (and ex-Dodger Brent Mayne) checks in from time to time with Olney about the finer points of catching, and today they were discussing Carlos Santana getting destroyed by Ryan Kalish while blocking the plate in Boston. Mayne was asked if he thinks catchers should block the plate at all, and, well, you’ll see the part that caught my eye.
“I think catchers should do it — BUT learn how to do it right. I believe if you make the play correctly (which Mayne goes into extensively in his book, ‘The Art of Catching’) you end up with some momentum going into the play (as opposed to being a sitting duck) and you end up as low as you can get without laying down. Which is super important because, if you’ve ever played football, you know the lowest guy usually wins. My technique also gets your knees into a safe position … a position that if you’ve hit the knee will bend in the direction God intended it to bend. Unfortunately for Santana, he did the goofy ‘hockey goalie, throw the leg out’ thing. You’ll also see Russell Martin making that same move and I’ll guarantee the same thing will happen to him as Santana one of these days. I actually don’t even consider that ‘blocking the plate’ … it’s more like just getting your leg in the way. And it’s a disaster waiting to happen.”
Will This Team Ever Hit Again?
August 1, 2010 at 10:58 pm | Posted in Casey Blake, Jamey Carroll, Rafael Furcal, Ryan Theriot, Scott Podsednik | 39 CommentsWe can make jokes about how Ryan Theriot looked gritty in his punchless 0-4, 2K Dodger debut, wonder how Scott Podsednik‘s scrappiness is more important than the 3 meager hits he’s contributed in 15 at-bats, and mourn that Blake DeWitt got only one fewer hit (3) in his Cubs debut than the entire Dodger team did today (okay, especially that last one), but this problem is the same as it ever was. Just like I’ve been saying for weeks, the new acquisitions are basically meaningless if the guys who’ve been here all season don’t start to hit.
Let’s quickly stop to exempt literally the only man who’s not part of the problem, Rafael Furcal, who despite going hitless tonight still has a July OPS over .900 with a team-leading five homers. Furcal’s been arguably the best shortstop in baseball this year. Well done, Rafael.
As far as everyone else… well, look at it this way. The Dodgers are unquestionably below-average on offense right now at catcher, second base, third base, and left field (without Manny). With Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier hardly contributing at all over the last two months, center field and right field aren’t strengths right now, either. At first base, while I think a lot more of James Loney than most people do, I also can’t argue that he’s a first baseman in the class of guys like Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, Joey Votto, and Adrian Gonzalez – he’s just not.
You could really make the case that the Dodgers are below-average at seven of the eight lineup spots right now, and that’s before you consider that the bench is utterly worthless aside from Jamey Carroll‘s powerless OBP skills.
And that makes it hard to point the finger at anyone in particular, because they’re all terrible right now. Other than Furcal, not one Dodger has an OPS over .770 in July. Not a one. If anyone really stands out, it’s Casey Blake, who’s hitting under .170 for the month and making that guaranteed 2011 in his contract look even worse than I feared it’d be when they signed him nearly two years ago, but it’s hard to pretend he’s the only problem when Matt Kemp has an OBP below .300 for the month.
If you really want to see something terrifying, look at the image to the right. It’s part of the boxscore from tonight’s game, and I’ve highlighted the OBP column. That’s for the season (except for Podsednik, who switched leagues) and it’s pretty terrifying up and down. Once again, Furcal stands out amongst the mediocre and downright terrible.
So what can you do? Well, two things come to mind immediately, and they both involve second base. First and foremost, you just cannot bat Theriot that high in the lineup. I understand that when Andre Ethier returns that will probably bump Furcal up to 2nd and Theriot down lower, but Theriot has proven that he is just not the kind of guy who can get on base all that often. Setting aside the perfectly reasonable question of why the hell you acquired him in the first place, he needs to be hitting no higher than 7th tomorrow, regardless of Ethier’s status.
Secondly – and believe me, I never ever thought I’d type these words – you have to play Jamey Carroll more. I know, I know. But there’s just no argument you can make that Theriot is a more dangerous hitter than Carroll is, and Carroll does the one thing that few other Dodgers seem to be able to do right now – get on base.
Otherwise… well, there’s not much you really can do other than hope that Manny comes back healthy and motivated, and that Kemp and Ethier figure out what the hell is causing their slumps. I’d also put forth that a team who’s ostensibly trying to win shouldn’t be wasting space on Garret Anderson this late in the season, but he’s also not really playing enough to say he’s the main cause of the problem here.
But no, finding a power bat off the bench wasn’t part of the trade haul. Finding a third baseman who can actually hit wasn’t on the menu. It was of course the starting pitching which was the problem, because it’s not like Clayton Kershaw just tossed out something like the team’s 10th excellent start in a row today. And didn’t Octavio Dotel just exude creamy veteran goodness in entering a game in which the Dodgers were losing in walking a tightrope to get out of it? No way James McDonald or Travis Schlichting could have pulled that off, but I’m sure glad McDonald and Andrew Lambo were spent to find out.
Was it really just a few months ago where we thought this was going to be a team with historic offensive highs that would be held back by its pitching? My, how times have changed.
Three Trades: The Other Side
August 1, 2010 at 2:07 pm | Posted in Blake DeWitt, Octavio Dotel, Ryan Theriot, Ted Lilly | 16 CommentsNow that everyone’s had a night to sleep on it… well, yesterday was still pretty bad, and I’m not even just talking about the painful loss to the Giants (yes, I’m getting a bit worried about Jonathan Broxton, though it’d be nice if the offense would score more than one run every once in a while too.) Really, my main problem with the deals yesterday was not just that I think the price was too high for improvements which are minimal at best, but that it’s just too late to bother. This isn’t a team that only needed a few rough edges smoothed out, so trading prospects for veterans who aren’t likely to make a difference seems like a mistake, especially when the biggest problem (the offense) was not only not upgraded, but arguably made worse. On top of that, for the number and quality of players who were traded, it would have been far better to get one impact player rather than four decent-ish guys.
Still, thousands of words were written about that yesterday, and SOSG did a great job of showing how the “mainstream” writers all liked the Dodger moves while Dodger bloggers almost uniformly hated them. What I’m interested in right now is how the other side felt. If we all hated the deals, how did fans of the Royals, Pirates, & Cubs see them?
This, ah, is probably not going to make you feel any better.
On the Octavio Dotel deal….
Where Have You Gone, Andy Van Slyke?:
McDonald is the great get here; he’s 25 and though he’s had trouble cracking the Dodgers rotation the last two years, he’s got great minor league numbers. Before the Dodgers used him in the bullpen through most of 2009, he was Baseball America’s 56th best prospect. He’s in Triple-A right now, but presumably could be called up and put in the Pirates’ rotation right away.
Lambo’s a decent prospect with a PED suspension drug of abuse suspension in the past, but he’s 21 and putting up decent numbers in Double-A, which is encouraging. The numbers aren’t great for a four-corners type player (which is what Lambo is), but to get him and McDonald in return for a 36-year old closer who could have been a free agent next year, well, it’s really hard not to be pleased with this trade.
Where Have You Gone, Andy Van Slyke?, part 2:
James McDonald is a solid upper-middle rotation prospect who at the very least should be a very useful bullpen player. Andrew Lambo is a very young, raw player who’s had some struggles but who is still a good prospect. To pull those two in for a 36-year old reliever is a pretty impressive haul and it’s the sort of trade I’m still smarting from being on the other end of so many times in the past.
The players the Pirates got are mostly help-now types, but McDonald, in particular, used to be a very well-regarded prospect, and his performance actually hasn’t faded all that much since that was the case. His upside is probably something like a #3 starter, which isn’t usually the sort of thing you can say about a 25-year-old Class AAA pitcher.
Lambo is the wild card here. Like McDonald, he was once among the Dodgers‘ top prospects, but unlike McDonald, he probably won’t be with the Pirates anytime soon. He’ll probably be at Class AA, where he’s been for the past two seasons. He’s struggled to master the level, but then he hasn’t been overwhelmed either, despite skipping Class A+ and being somewhat young for the league. It would be hard for me to argue that a couple of random Class A arms, which is about the return I would have expected for Dotel, have more upside than Lambo does. He isn’t a surefire prospect by any stretch, but he’s a nice addition.
I thought McDonald was plenty to get in return for Dotel, someone that wasn’t going to be of much use for the Bucs going forward. Who know’s what’ll happen with Lambo, but we’ll gladly take him in and give him a shot. He only makes the deal better, with the potential to make it a lot better.
RTJR also posted what I believe was Dotel’s entrance video and… well, I can’t not post this here.
On the Ted Lilly/Ryan Theriot deal…
About Blake DeWitt, people who call him “a Theriot clone” or “another Fontenot” miss the point. DeWitt is only 24 years old. His OPS this year is almost 100 points higher than Theriot’s, and two years ago at age 22, he hit nine home runs. I am not expecting him to be a power hitter; just hit for a decent average, play good defense and don’t make dumb baserunning plays! He did hit for some power in the minor leagues; it’s possible that might develop more as he gets older. Remember, he is two years younger than Theriot was when Theriot got a fulltime starting job in the major leagues.
Another Cubs Blog comments on the deal, then shows us exactly what a TOOTBLAN is:
I like Wallach, FWIW. Here are his numbers at Great Lakes (MWL):
17 GS, 84.2 IP, 73 H, 39 R, 7 HR, 43 BB, 92 K
And Smit’s numbers between Inland Empire (A+) and Chattanooga (AA):
37 G (1GS), 53.2 IP, 52 H, 17 R, 10 BB, 47 K
Not too shabby of a return for an expiring deal and a nontender candidate.
On the Scott Podsednik deal…
Royals Review:
Pimentel is a 21 year old pitcher who has been in A-ball. (B-R page) Pimentel has a 3.49 ERA this year, with good strikeout numbers. A definite interesting live arm. He is the second Pimentel from the Dodger organization to be acquired by Dayton Moore. He has a 3.68 career minor league ERA. (I had earlier written the Dodgers had been using him as a reliever, I must have went cross-eyed when I looked at his stats. He hasn’t been. He’s been a starter.)
Lucas May / Luke May is a 25 year old catcher with an .848 this season in AAA. (B-R page) May also hit decently last season in AA. I’m sure Albuquerque is a good hitters park, but for a catcher in his first AAA season, those are interesting numbers. I would have taken one of these guys for Pods.
Well done to the GM on this one.
Moriyama and other Dodgers bloggers had Pimentel jumping into their in-seasno top 30 prospects lists, so to get both minor leaguers is a steal for Dayton Moore. I believe I saw that the Dodgers are also picking up the remainder of Podsednik’s 2010 salary, which is another win. So basically, I’m ecstatic.
The Royals made a very good trade today in acquiring 25 year old catcher Lucas May and 22 year old P Elisaul Pimentel
The Royals currently employ an aging catcher and a backup catcher that does not have much of a future at that position.
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