Monthly Archives: August 2010

Decipher Tonight’s Lineup

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I don’t really post pregame lineups all that often, but inspired by some good Twitter conversation with Eric @ TBLA and Chad @ MOKM, I wanted to put up tonight’s and point out some things worth noting.

First, here’s the lineup:

Podsednik 8 Theriot 4 Ethier 9 Loney 3 Blake 5 Gibbons 7 Carroll 6 Ellis 2 Kuroda 1

You’ll probably notice that Matt Kemp is sitting in favor of Jay Gibbons. Ben Maller caught up with Joe Torre to explain why:

Joe Torre on sitting Matt Kemp: “I want to give Jay Gibbons some at bats. He’s got a left-handed bat. Matt is gonna play most of the time.”

Clearly, I’m not going to argue that Kemp is tearing the cover off the ball. He’s not, at all. It’s just that he’s hardly the only Dodger who isn’t hitting right now, and when he’s the only one who’s regularly being benched, it sends the wrong message. Now, whether that message is “Kemp is the problem” or “Joe Torre isn’t paying attention” is up to you, but neither one is good.

If Torre’s argument is to get another lefty bat in the lineup against the righty starter, why doesn’t he ever do the same against lefties and get Andre Ethier (historically atrocious against lefties, and with just a .289 OBP against them this year) out in place of Reed Johnson, who crushes lefties (.912 OPS this year) and has started just one game since June? (I know Johnson was injured, but still.) If you’re so interested in Gibbons, why doesn’t he ever get a start at 1B in place of James Loney, who’s hitting .223/.281/.348 in his last 30 games? If you want to get a poorly performing player out, how come Casey Blake (.218/.286/.345 since July 6) rarely is ever benched?

It’s just some weird decision-making by Torre, on top of his usual inexplicable decision to constantly hit Jamey Carroll and his .382 OBP at the end of the lineup. It’s probably not going to matter in the long run, since just about no one (other than Ethier & Carroll) is hitting, and because Kemp isn’t forcing his hand. Still, this gives the impression that Matt Kemp is the #1 issue on offense, based on how he’s been treated, and that seems unfair to me.

******

Maller on Rafael Furcal:

Joe Torre: “Rafael Furcal suffers a setback, will be reexamined, his rehab is on hold.”

Keeps getting better and better, doesn’t it?

A Night of Contradictions

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Some night last night, right? I’m still trying to process the fact that the Dodgers signed the supposedly-unsignable Zach Lee, prying him from his commitment to LSU football, just minutes after Hong-Chih Kuo and Octavio Dotel handed up yet another painful bullpen collapse. Imagining a 2013 rotation fronted by Clayton Kershaw & Chad Billingsley, with Chris Withrow, Ethan Martin, and Lee behind them is pretty tasty.

The Lee signing is a real feather in the cap of an embattled organization, especially after two months of jokes and conspiracy theories about how they’d “punted” the pick by choosing someone they knew wouldn’t sign. And not only did they sign him, they signed him – the $5.25m bonus is more than double the previous high of $2.3m that Clayton Kershaw received in 2006, and it’s tied with Baltimore’s Manny Machado for the third-highest bonus handed out in this year’s draft. They also gave $600,000 to 11th-rounder Joc Pederson, a large amount for such a low pick.

In a vacuum, this is incredible news. The draft process is incredibly flawed, and this is exactly how large-market teams ought to be taking advantage of it. It’s how the Red Sox were able to sign Anthony Ranaudo, who was viewed as a top-ten talent but fell to #33 due to concerns about his salary demands, and it’s how the Tigers were able to snag Rick Porcello at the end of the first round in 2007. Sure, it sucks that small market teams are sometimes forced to choose signability over talent (Matt Bush over Justin Verlander, I’m looking at you) but that’s the system we have, and the Dodgers played it perfectly this year. So kudos to them, and expect to hear “but we paid Zach Lee” over and over whenever people accuse the McCourts of being cheap in the future. For a system that was starting to stagnate, this is a much-needed infusion of talent and goodwill.

Yet, I can’t help but wonder… what exactly is the plan, here? You want to shower them with praise for investing in the future, but this is the same team which was roundly ridiculed for refusing to offer arbitration to either Orlando Hudson or Randy Wolf last year, and then didn’t sign a free agent bigger than Jamey Carroll. This is the team which had 20% of its Opening Day roster made up of either non-roster invites or Rule 5 picks. This is the team that’s basically stopped spending in Latin America, and this is the team that’s been among the five cheapest in baseball in draft signings in four of the last five years. In trades, the team has proven more than once that they’d rather give up superior prospects rather than take on any money, even as recently as two weeks ago in the Pittsburgh deal.

Now, all of a sudden, they’re spending big on the draft. The Lee deal isn’t really as big as it looks; the bonus is spread out over five years, so they’re paying just more than $1m a year for him, or the equivalent of a mediocre backup infielder or a very good Russian faith healer, yet it’s still a bigger splash than they’d been making in just about any arena lately. But does that forgive all of the missteps laid out above? It’s a good start, but the answer won’t come until after the season, when a team that’s full of holes will need to be rebuilt.

For today, at least, the feeling is a positive one. Not only did they open the wallets for once, but if they were willing to pay this much for Lee, then he’s clearly someone Logan White considers worthwhile, and I think White has earned our trust and then some in that department. We’ll just need to see how far this gets the team in the world of public opinion.

Hong-Chih Kuo Doesn’t Have the Heart of a Winner

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Consider this: one of the two longest-tenured Dodgers, one of the only two who’ve been with the team continuously since 2005, enters the game in the 8th inning. He fires an absolutely dominant 8th inning, getting three outs on only seven pitches.

He comes back out in the 9th, trying to nail down a two-run lead for the save. But the first two batters hit seeing-eye singles to just the right places, putting two on. A wild pitch moves both runners into scoring position, and things get worrisome. James Loney makes a nice play to grab a foul out, but then he walks Brooks Conrad to load the bases.

At this point, Joe Torre can take no more, and he comes out to rescue the All-Star. Octavio Dotel offers no relief, however, by allowing all three runners to score on a walk and a walkoff single. Of course, it’s Octavio Dotel, so you sort of expect these things from him, and he didn’t create this situation in the first place: the longtime Dodger reliever did.

We’re talking about Hong-Chih Kuo, of course. But if all this had happened to Jonathan Broxton, you’d be hearing an unbelievably epic shitstorm all over the internet about how people have looked deep into his soul, and determined that he’s just “not a winner”, “doesn’t have what it takes to closer”, and “is a loser.” Anyone want to make the same claim about Kuo? Guess what. Shit happens, especially in the 9th inning, and none of us are psychatrists. I’m not defending Broxton’s recent slump, because he’s been awful, but let’s not pretend it’s anything more than a wild pitcher and the ups-and-downs of baseball. It can happen to Broxton, it can happen to Kuo, and it sure as hell can happen to Dotel.

I don’t want to say this every day, but now it’s time to shop veterans, right?

******

Hey, how’s that Dotel for James McDonald (20/4 K/BB in 17.2 Pirate innings) and Andrew Lambo (.904 OPS in 61 minor league Pirate plate appearances) deal looking now? Oh, that’s right. Just as bad as it did from the moment it was made.

******

Let’s not forget Chad Billingsley, who was outstanding. He went seven innings, allowing just one run and one walk while striking out eight. Most impressive, he struck out the side in the fifth inning after allowing a leadoff baserunner. But hey, he doesn’t have any heart either, right?

Reason number 1,213,127 that wins are stupid:  Billingsley left the game after seven innings with the game tied 1-1. He no longer had any impact on the game from the second he was pinch-hit for by Reed Johnson to start the 8th. He could have left the stadium, and it wouldn’t have mattered. But because Brooks Conrad gifted the Dodgers with two errors, and Billingsley was still “the pitcher of record”, he gets the win. It works both ways, folks, but neither way matters. That’s a large part of why I didn’t bother to use wins in my chart about Clayton Kershaw from earlier today.

*******

I wanted to wait on this post, because all indications are that the Dodgers have an increasingly good chance to sign Zach Lee before 9pm PST tonight. But at this point, I’m just deflated. I’ll update this here once the deadline passes.

UPDATE: LSU insiders are claiming Lee has signed, more to come.

UPDATE 2: Confirmed by LSU…

LSU coach Les Miles confirmed late Monday night that freshman quarterback Zach Lee signed a contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Details of the contract were not immediately available.

“This was a very personal decision for Zach and his family,” Miles said. “This opportunity was just too difficult to pass up. We wish Zach and his family the very best. He’s an outstanding young man and we hope he develops into a great Major League pitcher.”

Lee was the 28th overall pick in the 2010 Major League Baseball Draft over the summer.

WOW. Did not think there was any prayer of this happening. Kudos, once again, to Logan White. And even a little for the McCourts – they still suck, but this goes a long way towards helping credibility.

UPDATE 3: Ken Gurnick says it’s $5.25m. Holy hell. This is kind of a game-changer.

http://lsufootball.posterous.com/lsus-lee-signs-with-dodgers

You’d Give Clayton Kershaw $30m Right Now, Right?

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You all know that I think the season is all but over, and yesterday’s blowout at the hands of Atlanta only served as yet another nail in the coffin. If the Dodgers wanted to see what they could get for guys like Ted Lilly, Hiroki Kuroda, Octavio Dotel, and the other veterans I’d be more than okay with that right now. That being the case, I’ve been thinking a lot about the future, and not only the overwhelmingly negative parts of it (like, how do you fill holes at catcher, second base, third base, left field, and 3/5 of the starting rotation with no money and few prospects?)

More specifically, I’m talking about the future of Clayton Kershaw, who at just 22 has lived up to the hype that accompanied his arrival. For the second year in a row, he’s in the top ten in the NL in most strikeouts per nine and fewest hits allowed per nine. He’s dramatically improved his control (walks/nine dropping from 4.8 to 3.8), he’s working deeper into games, and of his 24 starts this year, he’s allowed three earned runs or less in 20 of them. He’s awesome, he’s getting better, and he won’t even be 23 until spring training - a rare bright spot in what is quickly becoming a spiraling season.

I’m bringing this topic up now because the Blue Jays just signed their own young lefty, Ricky Romero, to a five-year deal, and it’s time to start thinking about doing the same for Kershaw. Romero and Kershaw are similar in many ways, each being lefty top-10 draft picks in their second full seasons, and MLBTR notes that Romero’s deal also bears similarities to deals that Jon Lester and Yovani Gallardo recently signed. At the time of the deals, all three had one more season left before arbitration, and at the end of the year, Kershaw will have 2 years and 105 days of MLB service, meaning he’ll probably fall just short of qualifying for “Super Two” status and arbitration eligibility.

All three signed deals for $30m over five years. Are those fair comparables for Kershaw? Let’s find out. Lester signed his before 2009, and Gallardo before 2010; I’ll use their stats at the time of the deal.


It’s not a perfect comparison, as Kershaw is younger than all three, yet will have far more starts under his belt by the end of the year than any had at the time of their deals. But the stats are similar, and nothing on that chart matters more than the nearly identical amount of service time, because that’s how these deals get made. The difference in value between a pre-arbitration year, the three arbitration years, and free agency years are astronomical, and when the time comes to make this deal happen, both sides will be looking at players in similar situations. The last remaining pre-arbitration year is really the big deal here; look at Zack Greinke and Josh Johnson, who each recently signed similar four-year deals, for $38m (Greinke) and $39m (Johnson). The average per-year salary on those two deals (north of $9m/year) were higher than any of our three comparables, but Greinke and Johnson each had more leverage because they had exhausted their pre-arbitration years and were poised to get huge raises in arbitration.

FanGraphs breaks down the difference between going yearly or signing long-term, and you can really replace Romero’s name with Kershaw in this quote, because the details are identical – even down to the 3.4 WAR produced in 2010.

Romero will finish his second year of service time in 2010 and would have been on a club-controlled contract for 2011. He would then be arbitration eligible for 2012, ’13 and ’14 and a free agent or 2015. Given the standard guide of 40%/60%/80% of market value expected for arbitration rulings, the five years of Romero’s contract add up to 2.8 seasons of free market worth plus one year at the league minimum. That is what Toronto and Romero are surrendering by not going year-to-year.

With a payment of $30.1 million guaranteed, that works out to the Jays paying Romero $10.75 million per market year. With current trends pegging the market dollars paid per win at around $4 million we have an estimation of about 2.75 to 3.0 wins per season for the contract’s middle point once we factor in the discount Romero should be offering for the security of a long-term deal.

Romero produced 2.7 WAR last season and is already at 3.4 this year so on the face of it, this looks like a possible win for the Blue Jays already.

They liked the Gallardo deal as well, noting that ”the new contract represents good value for the Brewers while providing ample personal security,” so unless you think Kershaw’s about to fall off a cliff, this is a sensible idea for the Dodgers, especially since he had the most WAR of the three in 2009 (4.2 to Gallardo’s 3.4 and Romero’s 2.7.)

So $30m over 5 years seems to be the going rate for this caliber of pitcher at this point in his career, and if you want to toss in a bit more because Kershaw is younger, that’d be fine by me too. If nothing is done, he’ll make less than a million dollars in 2011. That’s a steal. But then he’ll be eligible for arbitration, and if he keeps on his current career path the yearly arbitration raises are going to get expensive and unpredictable. What if 2011 is his true breakout year, where he goes 21-6 with 212 K? We’ll be begging for the days when he might have been had for only $6m/year. So while I’m sure the responses here are going to be “sure, but the Dodgers are poor” (and it’s not that you’re wrong, it’s just that I’m trying to pretend we’re fans of a real baseball team for once), this is a deal that would save the Dodgers money in the long run.

Besides, if smaller teams like Toronto and Milwaukee can do it… there’s no reason the Dodgers shouldn’t be able to as well. This has the potential to be a painful offseason for a variety of reasons, and a commitment made to one of the game’s bright young stars would go a long way towards easing that.

******

Don’t forget, tonight at 9pm PST is the deadline for the Dodgers to sign 1st-round pick Zach Lee. Unconfirmed reports are saying that they’ll offer him $3m to forget his LSU commitment and start his professional career. If that offer is accurate – and like you, I’ll believe it when I see it – whether or not he takes it is almost irrelevant, because that would be an offer higher than the Royals gave the #4 pick, Christian Colon. Should the offer be made and verified, then a lot of us may have a whole lot of crow to eat for our post-draft reactions.

It’s A Good Night For New Dodgers

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I’m tempted to add that the offense still scored just two runs, or that the chances of making the playoffs are so small that making any of these trades was a terrible idea to begin with, but the hell with it; it’s Saturday night, it’s a win, and we’ll take what we can get.

Not only did Ted Lilly pitch six more scoreless innings to notch his third win in as many tries as a Dodger, Scott Podsednik had three hits, Ryan Theriot had two, and Octavio Dotel pitched in with 1.1 scoreless innings. Hong-Chih Kuo might not be a new Dodger (he’s actually one of the two longest-tenured), but he made a great first impression in his new closing role, striking out two of three to finish off the game. Hey, even George Sherrill contributed by getting a righty out in a big spot, thus avoiding the shitstorm of us all asking why Joe Torre let him face a righty in a big spot in the first place.

******

Over at the LA Times, Bill Shaikin (who’s been killing it on this divorce business since the start, by the way), has some news that’s going to make your head hurt:

The Dodgers have talked about creative ways their Chavez Ravine property could generate revenue for ownership. One such deal, a head-scratcher, is already in place: The team has been charging itself rent — $14 million this year — on Dodger Stadium property it owns.

That’s weird because Shaikin paints it as a way to get around rules preventing owners from taking money directly from their teams…

The Dodgers pay rent to Blue Land, which is not involved in stadium operations. Boies said the rental payments offered the McCourts the option of working around restrictions on receiving cash directly from team coffers.

“It’s a way of taking money out of the Dodgers and putting it into a place they can access it,” Boies said.

…and is mostly infuriating because of the tone-deaf response from Frank McCourt’s attorney, Marshall Grossman:

Grossman declined to respond to a series of questions about why the Dodgers pay rent to use property they own. Instead, he issued a statement that read in part: “Our focus is on winning on the field, providing a superior fan experience, and making a significant impact on the community.

“Tidbits reported in the media from divorce court filings do not tell a full story. And while members of the news media continue to find interest in the divorce proceedings, fans care about winning and having a great experience at the ballpark. That’s where their focus is. That’s where our focus is.”

Right, Marshall. It’s the media’s fault. Because while the fans do care about winning on the field more than anything, let’s not pretend that the team spending less than ever (not just on the MLB product, but also its total lack of investment in the draft and Latin America) has nothing to do with anything, right?