2010 September « Mike Scioscia's tragic illness

Is This the End of Logan White’s Tenure?

September 30, 2010 at 4:20 pm | Posted in Logan White | 12 Comments

Horrifying news just in, courtesy of BP’s Kevin Goldstein:

Some rumors starting to swirl about the #Dodgers and Logan White; or rather, Logan White and no longer with the #Dodgers.

There’s nothing more on this yet, but Goldstein has a ton of connections in the industry (earlier today, I wondered about Javier Vazquez, and within five minutes KG had checked with a big league exec.)

Obviously, it’s unfair to spectulate. But it sure is fun, so let’s do just that. There’s no obvious GM job, so perhaps he’s frustrated with the McCourts and is…

- Replacing Eddie Bane with the Angels?
- Going to Arizona (where he lives) to be Kevin Towers’ assistant GM?
- Or he thinks he’s got a great opportunity with the Mets, who are certainly going to replace Omar Minaya?

More as it comes in, but so far: not good.

Update: Baseball America’s Jim Callis chimes in:

Talking to Logan White right now: He has not been dismissed by the #Dodgers.

Planning on working for the team until he’s told otherwise. @thinkblue1194: What has Logan White said about his future with the Dodgers?

No. Logan White says he sincerely wants to keep working for the Dodgers. @MikeSciosciasTI: Is that code for “it’s his choice”?

Hey, that’s me!

Is Jonathan Broxton Tradeable?

September 30, 2010 at 10:37 am | Posted in Jonathan Broxton | 51 Comments

Of all the big stories we’re going to deal with this winter, none might be bigger than the fate of Jonathan Broxton, who’s due to make $7m in the second year of a two-year deal. Though I’ve been a regular defender of Broxton, I’d be completely okay with moving him. That has less to do with his performance than it does with my feeling that relievers are generally so replaceable that only the absolute top-tier are worthy of that kind of salary, particularly on a team with well-known payroll issues.

Until June 26, 2010, Broxton was one of those “top-tier” guys, earning every bit of his salary. After that; well, you know. We’ll get back to that in a second. More important for this discussion is, is there really any sort of trade fit this winter? You can stamp your feet all you want and claim “he has to go”, but regardless of whether I agree with that or not it won’t matter if there’s not a destination for him and an adequate return.

Any team that would take Broxton on would have to fulfill four requirements. #1, they’d need to have hopes of contending next year, since bottom-feeders certainly aren’t going to give up assets for a guy entering his walk year. #2, they’d need to have a healthy payroll, in order to fit most or all of Broxton’s salary. #3, they’d need to have something decent to give back, since you can’t just throw away someone who’s been as successful as Broxton’s been for nothing. #4, they’d need to have a need in the bullpen.

It’s hard to find a good fit.

Let’s eliminate the obvious teams who won’t even be in the conversation. Washington, Florida, Houston, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, Arizona, Baltimore, Toronto, Kansas City, Cleveland, & Seattle have little hope of contending next year. The other NL West teams all have set closers, and a trade within the division is unlikely anyway. That’s 15 teams out of the way, and 14 more to get through.

AL EAST
New York – Mariano Rivera is obviously the man there (yes, he’s a free agent, but no chance he leaves), and they’re more likely to spend their money on Cliff Lee, Carl Crawford/Jayson Werth, resigning Derek Jeter, and bolstering a suddenly faltering rotation.
Boston – Already have Jonathan Papelbon and Daniel Bard. Papelbon may hit the market, which would only hurt Broxton’s value.
Tampa Bay – Are about to lose Rafael Soriano, but they’re going to need to cut payroll, not add.

AL CENTRAL
Chicago – The Sox are full of talented bullpen arms, from Bobby Jenks and Matt Thornton to Chris Sale and Sergio Santos. Kenny Williams and Ned Colletti certainly have a history of making deals, and Williams is far from predictable, but their offense is brutal and they have bigger concerns than the bullpen.
Detroit – Here’s our first interesting situation. Jose Valverde is under contract and in no danger of losing his job, but the Tigers have money to spend and are looking for bullpen help. Detroit’s a possibility.
Minnesota – Matt Capps is under team control, Joe Nathan will be trying to come back, and their payroll is already at historic levels for them.

AL WEST
Anaheim – With Brian Fuentes gone, Fernando Rodney is the incumbent, so the Angels could be looking for relief help, but trades between the Dodgers and Angels are extremely rare.
Oakland – Already has a talented bullpen, and generally wouldn’t pay this much for another arm.
Texas – Neftali Feliz just set a rookie record for saves, and each one makes it less likely that he moves back to the rotation. With Lee a free agent, they’ll likely focus more on the starting pitching and first base.

NL EAST
Atlanta – The Braves have several young arms making waves, like Jonny Venters and Craig Kimbrel, and a limited payroll. Their big concern this winter has to be bats, with big holes in the middle of the lineup.
New York – Still on the hook for Francisco Rodriguez, and they’ve got far bigger concerns and payroll issues of their own.
Philadelphia – Brad Lidge and Ryan Madson are under contract for next year, and can you really imagine the Phillies wanting to import Broxton after his history there?

NL CENTRAL
Chicago – Carlos Marmol‘s job is secure, and the Cubs may not have a lot of free cash thanks to their many big-ticket obligations.
Cincinnati – Francisco Cordero is signed for next year, though was less than dominant this year. Aroldis Chapman may or may not return to the rotation. I suppose this is possible.
St. Louis – Ryan Franklin has been waffling on his intentions to retire, but even if he does the Cardinals have to worry about finding the money to pay Albert Pujols and Chris Carpenter, among other needs. (First person to suggestion a Broxton-for-Colby Rasmus deal gets banned from the site forever.)

So Detroit seems like the only real possibility, with lesser cases to be made for Cincinnati and St. Louis. Some teams could use Broxton as a setup man if not a closer, but few will pay $7m for an 8th-inning guy. In addition, the relief market is flush with talent this year, full of arms who may be had for less and didn’t melt down for the last three months. Soriano, Joaquin Benoit, Jon Rauch, Scott Downs, Kevin Gregg, and many others are out there, potentially offering less risk and more value.

Let’s say, for the moment, that Detroit has interest. What kind of deal could be made? I’ve always liked Ryan Raburn, who plays six different positions and can rake. But is a utility man worth a guy who was one of the top closers in baseball up until June? I’m not sure that it is. Otherwise, the Tigers are full of players untouchable (Miguel Cabrera, Justin Verlander), overpaid (Carlos Guillen), or headed into free agency (Brandon Inge, Gerald Laird, Jeremy Bonderman).

From this point of view, a Broxton trade seems unlikely unless the Dodgers eat a good portion of the cash or don’t get much back, and in that case, what’s the point? Besides, it’s not as though the Dodger bullpen isn’t full of their own questions for next season. The only two relievers you can put any faith in are Hong-Chih Kuo and Kenley Jansen, and even then you’re talking about a guy with a fragile arm and a guy who’s been pitching for just over a year. Beyond them, can you depend on Ramon Troncoso? Ronald Belisario? It’s hard to say that you can.

That’s not to say that you can necessarily count on Broxton, either. He was ungodly horrible after June 27, ending a stretch in which he’d been asked to throw 99 pitches in five days. It’s unfair to review his season without noting how incredible he’d been up to that point, however (48/5 K/BB). He claims he’s not hurt, and though his velocity is down, he’s still in the mid-90s. Besides, for anyone who claims that Broxton’s lousy second-half means he’s irreparably damaged… may I remind you of how Chad Billingsley bounced back this year from his terrible finish to 2009? A winter of rest, a better exercise program, and a season away from Joe Torre, could really do wonders here.

Look, if there’s a good deal to be had for Broxton. I’m not against it. I’m just not sure that there is, and he’s too valuable to be given away for mere peanuts.

Casey Blake Gets a Game Ball

September 29, 2010 at 12:03 am | Posted in Casey Blake, Kenley Jansen | 6 Comments

I’ve been somewhat critical of Casey Blake around here lately, and one nice series in the mountains isn’t going to change my opinion that he’s past his peak and ought to be a 1B/3B lefty-masher next year.

For tonight, though? Give it up to the Beard, who hit two of the four Dodger homers and single-handedly proved that the humidor needs more work. (Come on, three homers to Blake and James Loney? Don’t tell me that’s kosher.) Well done.

Also of note: Kenley Jansen picked up his third major league save by getting four outs. He’s making it hard to not consider him as closer material for next year; yes, he’s incredibly raw and new to pitching, but he’s also older than Clayton Kershaw and Texas’ Neftali Feliz, who set a rookie record with 38 saves this year.

Finally: Ronald Belisario came in with one on and one out in a 6-4 game in the 7th. He threw a wild pitch, got a groundout, then gave up the game-tying homer. For this, he got the victory. Wins… for the win. As usual.

Arbitration Decision: Ryan Theriot

September 28, 2010 at 2:25 pm | Posted in Ryan Theriot | 37 Comments

Ha! Helllllll no.

******

Okay, part of me contemplated just leaving it at that. But I suppose I should offer some backup. Where should I start? Oh, I don’t know. How about with the fact that there’s 157 players who have accumulated at least 475 plate appearances in 2010, and Ryan Theriot is the 3rd-worst in baseball in OPS+? Beating out Alcides Escobar and Cesar Izturis is hardly an achievement:

Rk	Player	OPS+	PA	Year	Tm	R	H	2B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
1	Miguel Cabrera	180	648	2010	DET	111	180	45	38	126	89	95	.328	.420	.622	1.042
153	Jason Kendall	70	490	2010	KCR	39	111	18	0	37	37	45	.256	.318	.297	.615
154	Jose Lopez	69	618	2010	SEA	48	141	28	10	58	22	65	.239	.269	.337	.606
155	Ryan Theriot	69	618	2010	TOT	68	153	15	2	29	38	73	.270	.319	.314	.633
156	Alcides Escobar	66	530	2010	MIL	56	115	14	4	40	33	66	.236	.287	.326	.612
157	Cesar Izturis	53	500	2010	BAL	42	109	13	1	28	24	53	.236	.282	.275	.557

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/28/2010.

“But,” you say, “OPS doesn’t measure defense, or position, or baserunning. That’s an unfair comparison.” Okay, then. Let’s go with WAR, and compare against only fellow second basemen. How does that turn out for Mr. TOOTBLAN? Well, he’s only the worst second baseman in baseball in 2010 (min. 300 PA):

Rk	Player	WAR/pos	PA	Tm	R	H	2B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
1	Robinson Cano	5.5	672	NYY	100	193	39	28	105	55	76	.318	.378	.530	.908
25	Skip Schumaker	0.2	513	STL	64	122	18	5	41	43	63	.265	.331	.341	.671
Rk	Player	WAR/pos	PA	Tm	R	H	2B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
26	Cristian Guzman	0.0	396	TOT	48	97	12	2	26	20	63	.266	.311	.337	.648
27	Gordon Beckham	-0.3	498	CHW	58	112	25	9	49	37	92	.252	.317	.378	.695
28	Ryan Theriot	-0.9	618	TOT	68	153	15	2	29	38	73	.270	.319	.314	.633

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/28/2010.

(Before anyone mentions it, yes I’m using B-ref’s WAR, and FanGraphs has a different flavor of it. There, he’s at 0.1, but that’s still next to last among 2B. It’s still not good.)

Want more? Since August 31st, Theriot’s hitting a robust .129/.228/.129, which works out to 9 hits in 81 plate appearances. He hasn’t had an extra base hit since August 26th, more than a month ago. I’m pretty sure Troy Tulowitzki picked up two while I was writing that sentence.

Oh, and Theriot turns 31 this winter and stands to make about $3.5m in arbitration. This is why I hated the deal that brought Theriot over so much; it’s not because I love Blake DeWitt, because I don’t, but because Theriot is older, more expensive, and adds little value. I will admit that he’s been better defensively than I had anticipated, but that’s probably in part due to my low expectations coming in. I suppose it shouldn’t be a surprise that a mediocre shortstop would make a decent defensive second baseman, though.

That said, “a bit above average” with the glove can’t compensate for “complete trainwreck of a disaster” at the plate. So if you’re still wondering whether Theriot deserves an arbitration offer, well, of course he doesn’t. If you’re willing to have a second baseman with an OPS+ of about 70, you can do it for a hell of a lot less than $3.5m. If you’re going to pay that, you won’t get a star, but you can at least get someone adequate. Someone with numbers like this, and headed in the wrong direction – since his “peak” in 2008, his BA and OBP have declined precipitously the last two years – is barely worth a roster spot, much less several million dollars. You can find a better way to use the money and the position, and I’ll touch on how to do that once the season is over.

But these are all pesky “facts”. I brought up the Theriot case on Twitter earlier this week, and people like ESPNLA’s Ramona Shelburne made their cases that they think the Dodgers will bring Theriot back, and I completely agree. I think they will bring him back, if only because he’s got a nice (if empty) batting average, top-notch “grit”, and they want to have something to show for this July’s disastrous trading deadline, especially if Ted Lilly leaves. Ryan Theriot will be back in 2011. But it sure doesn’t mean he should be.

Verdict: not a chance in hell should he be offered arbitration.

Arbitration Decision: Hiroki Kuroda

September 27, 2010 at 10:06 pm | Posted in Hiroki Kuroda | 10 Comments

Let me preface this right at the top by saying, “I want Hiroki Kuroda back”. Kuroda’s been stellar in his three years as a Dodger, despite suffering through a multitude of injuries and a scary liner to the head. 15 times he’s pitched at least seven innings without allowing more than one earned run; this season he’s finally managed to avoid the disabled list, and he’s going to surpass 200 innings and set career highs in nearly every category. He’s currently tied for the 7th-lowest OBP against in Los Angeles Dodger history, among those with as many innings as he’s thrown, and he’s been well worth the 3/$35.3m deal he signed before the 2008 season. If you can sign him to a two- or three-year deal, hopefully gaining a hometown discount, then I’m totally on board with that.

So you’d think, after I said to offer Ted Lilly arbitration, that making the same offer to the superior Kuroda would be a no-brainer. Kuroda’s a more effective pitcher, and he’s had more success as a Dodger. Easy, right? Well, it’s not quite that simple.

Though I have no doubt that Kuroda could go hit the market and get a big deal in free agency, I’m more worried that he’d actually accept the offer than I am that Lilly would. Kuroda will be 36 in February, and after uprooting his family from Japan three years ago, he may not want to leave the relative comfort of Los Angeles to ask them to adapt to somewhere new. Besides, he’s refused to comment on his future after this season, and the rumors about him possibly returning to Japan just won’t go away. If he’s unwilling to commit to more than than another year or two in America, then the lure of a long-term deal wouldn’t hold much sway for him – and there’s nowhere he could get a bigger salary for 2011 than he could by accepting arbitration from the Dodgers.

Kuroda is making $15.4m in 2010, and he’s been outstanding. If he accepted an offer of arbitration, he’d get $16m at the least, and possibly more. While you’d like to think that the team could negotiate a two-year deal to lessen that 2011 hit, if he only wants to commit for one year, then the team has just about no leverage to avoid that payment. There’s not a whole lot of teams who can afford that kind of cash for one season of a pitcher, and the Dodgers certainly aren’t among them. Besides, while I love Kuroda, that’s a lot of dough to drop on a 36-year-old with one healthy season out of three, particularly on a club with zero starting depth.

In a vacuum, there’s no doubt at all that Hiroki Kuroda is better than Ted Lilly, and it’s no secret which one I’d prefer to see in Dodger blue next season. Not offering Kuroda arbitration doesn’t preclude that, but extending that offer is just far too risky. You just can’t offer them both arbitration, because if they each accepted the results would be disastrous (who are kidding, it’s the Dodgers, so they won’t offer either, but indulge me), so I have to choose the one that is less likely to accept – and would cost less if he did.

Verdict: don’t offer arbitration, but do try to re-sign him.

Mattingly Leaves the Dodgers

September 26, 2010 at 3:25 pm | Posted in Don Mattingly, Preston Mattingly, Roman Pena | 6 Comments

Well… not that Mattingly, says Ken Gurnick:

Don Mattingley’s son Preston, a Dodgers Minor Leaguer, was traded to the Indians for outfielder Roman Pena.

Preston Mattingly‘s been a huge bust since being selected in the 1st round in 2006 with a pick received as compensation for Jeff Weaver signing with the Angels; he turned 23 last month, yet hit just .218/.247/.291 in 175 at-bats for low-A Inland Empire and the rookie level Arizona Dodgers.

Pena’s not much better. He just turned 24, and hit .148 in 74 injury-plagued at-bats for high-A Kinston this year. He’s got a .711 OPS in five seasons with Cleveland’s minor league teams, never rising above high-A ball.

Clearly, Pena’s not a prospect, and neither is Mattingly. Under normal situations, this is a complete non-story. However, coming as it does just a week after Don gets named the 2011 manager, it’s certain to raise some eyebrows.

Arbitration Decision: Ted Lilly

September 25, 2010 at 11:02 am | Posted in Ted Lilly | 23 Comments

(Not to ignore Clayton Kershaw‘s outing last night, of course, but WordPress was down at the time, so I couldn’t put anything up. He’s, uh, good at baseball. Remember when I said last month you absolutely have to get him signed long-term this offseason? That goes double now.)

Well, this one’s a little easier than the question about Russell Martin, isn’t it? Of course you offer Ted Lilly arbitration.

I’m kidding, of course, because it’s not that cut-and-dry. Lilly’s going to turn 35 in January, and he’s finishing up a 4/$40m contract bestowed upon him by the Cubs before 2007. His Dodger career got off to an astounding but clearly unsustainable start – four ER in 28 innings over his first four starts. There was absolutely no way he was going to keep that up, as I noted at the time, and he didn’t. He’s got a 6.91 ERA over his last five starts, allowing eight homers, though the number is a bit inflated by two outright disasters.

If Lilly’s not as good as he was when he arrived in Los Angeles, nor is he as bad as he’s looked lately. Looking back at his career, he’s had one surprisingly terrible season (2005, 5.32 FIP), one surprisingly good season (2009, 3.65 FIP), and an entire decade worth of seasons between 4.15 and 4.75, with his career average FIP sitting at (surprise) 4.45. That’s a bit better than league-average, and combined with his durability (other than that 2005, at least 177 IP every year since 2002), handedness (lefty), improved control (2009 and 10 are his two top BB/9 years) and association with veteran-y terms like “he just knows how to play the game the right way”, there’s real value to a player like that.

But there’s also warning signs. Lilly’s fastball, never all that noteworthy in the first place, has declined in each of the last five seasons, down over 3 MPH from 2006. He’s allowing more flyballs than he’s ever had before (hence the homers), and his K/9 has decreased for the second year in a row. The lessened velocity may not be as important for a so-called “crafty lefty” as it might be for someone who lives and dies on heat, but it’s not a good trend.

As Jon Weisman noted at Dodger Thoughts, the history of giving long-term deals to older players (he mentions Randy Wolf, Derek Lowe, and Casey Blake, though you could of course go on for hours), especially pitchers, rarely ends well. It’s not hard to think that Lilly’s going to fall squarely into that same camp.

Now, I do think Lilly can be an effective pitcher in 2011. I’m less sure about 2012, and all bets are off about 2013, when he’ll be 37 years old. And that’s why you offer him arbitration – because I’m okay if he accepts it, and I doubt he will.

Let’s take the latter point first. You don’t think he can get three years on the open market? Just look at the list of free agent pitchers this winter. Sure, Cliff Lee is the jewel, but after him… Carl Pavano? Bronson Arroyo? Javier Vazquez? Jeremy Bonderman? It’s not pretty out there, and you could argue that Lilly is the best lefty option besides Lee, and the 3rd or 4th best overall. He held up his end of his deal with the Cubs pretty well, and while he won’t get $40m again, there’s definitely a three-year deal out there for him if he wants it. At 35, this is almost certainly his last chance to sign a multi-year deal, plus he’s seen firsthand how unlikely it looks that the Dodgers are World Series contenders next year. Yes, he’d be passing up a larger payday in 2011, but the lure of a long-term deal and a chance to win might be too much to pass up.

Besides, if he doesn’t accept, that’s two draft picks for a system which badly needs them (Lilly currently profiles as a Type A free agent). Even if he does accept, it’s not the end of the world. It’s not like the Dodgers don’t desperately need a starter (if not two or three), right? Yes, the arbitration cost of $13m or so is more than you really want to pay for that role, but A) you’re going to have to pay for pitching one way or another and B) with his leverage diminished by the Type A tag, they’d probably come to terms on a more reasonable two-year deal anyway.

If Lilly’s coming back to the Dodgers, I want it be on a one-year deal, two at the most. Offering arbitration is the only way to make that happen, and it carries with it the benefit of draft picks should he decline. Your other choice is to not offer, and then either see him leave for nothing, or even worse, be the team that foolishly gives him a three- or four-year deal. It’s risky, but…

Verdict: Offer him arbitration.

Next up, Hiroki Kuroda! Then Ryan Theriot, which is going to be a barrel of laughs.

******

Totally unrelated, but deep within this story from the OC Register is the news that prospect Jerry Sands, who destroyed the minor leagues with a .960 OPS this year, is going to get some time at 3B in the Arizona Fall League. Sands is a 1B/OF, but it’s no secret that the Dodgers are totally barren of 3B prospects right now. I have no idea whether he can do it, but his bat is probably only a year away; it’s certainly an interesting thought.

A Decision Looms on Russell Martin

September 23, 2010 at 5:41 pm | Posted in Russell Martin | 45 Comments

Usually, I wait until after the season is over to start looking at arbitration decisions and roster construction. Of course, the season hasn’t been over until mid-October in each of the last two seasons, whereas this year it ended sometime in July. So let’s get to it, shall we? The Dodgers are going to have a ton of questions this offseason, but perhaps none bigger than this:

What do you do with Russell Martin?

I’m going to preface this by saying I’ve gone back and forth on it in my head about 40 times, and as I sit here beginning to write this, I still don’t know what my answer would be. I’m hoping that putting all these thoughts down helps me figure it out.

Let’s start with the facts. Martin will turn 28 years old in February, and he’s eligible for arbitration for the 3rd time this winter. As a “Super Two”, he’s one of the few players who can go to arbitration a fourth time next year, before becoming a free agent after 2012. He’s making $5.05m in 2010, and is in line for a raise despite missing from August 3 on with a torn labrum and fracture in his right hip.

There’s a multitude of facts working against Martin right now. Most pressing is the hip injury, because while he was fortunate enough to avoid surgery, there’s not very many comparables we can look back to. It’s not totally uncommon for baseball players to deal with an injury like this, and to come back healthy, but none of them have been catchers (as Will Carroll told Jon Weisman when the injury occurred).

Even if Martin is able to come back at full strength – a risk, since you won’t know until the spring – there’s the continued worry about his decreasing production. It may seem like a sudden drop from the exciting player we saw in 2006 and 2007, but Martin’s actually been a pretty mediocre bat for over two years, since mid-2008. As I mentioned earlier this week, Martin has hit just .248/.352/.330 (.681), with 16 HR in 1291 PA, since July 1, 2008.

Put another way, Martin’s SLG in 2009-10 was .330. Everyone’s favorite Little Leaguer wearing his dad’s uniform, David Eckstein, managed .336. He’s slowed down on the bases (net SB last four years: 12, 12, 5, 4) and even his OBP, an outstanding .385 in 2008, has settled into the .350 range over the last two years. Really, his 2009 (.307 wOBA) and 2010 (.306 wOBA) were in many ways identical at the plate; that seems to be the level he’s settling into, and it’s not great.

However, in much the same way James Loney gets penalized for being an average bat at a position that demands far more, Martin gets the benefit of being mediocre at a position where the benchmark is terrible. Really, this part can’t be overstated, and it’s the only reason we’re even having this conversation. His .679 OPS this year is good for just 175th in baseball, but (according to baseball-reference) it was worth 1.4 offense-only WAR. Meanwhile, Cardinals 2B Skip Schumaker, who had a very similar .676 OPS, gets only 0.6 oWAR because the bar is higher for 2B than for C. (I can’t even imagine what a .676 would be at 1B. -6 oWAR?)

On defense, well, catcher defense is notoriously difficult to quantify, though most observers would agree that Martin was a quality defender in his glory days, was sub-par in 2009, and had improved this year. Really, any hopes we had about seeing better defense behind the plate dissipated when Brad Ausmus, A.J. Ellis, and Rod Barajas allowed 31 straight stolen bases immediately after Martin’s injury. (Yes, I know that pitchers play a large role in allowing steals. That’s still not good, and it only made Martin look better.)

Despite that poor offensive production, Martin is tied for 16th among all catchers (min. 300 PA) in WAR over the last two seasons, making him roughly a middle-of-the-pack backstop. Though his power is all but gone (42nd of the 52 qualifying catchers), that’s generally a luxury from the position, and his OBP (11th) is more than adequate. Remember, though, that if you let him go, you have to replace him, and most of the catchers above him on that list aren’t available. Don’t expect to see Joe Mauer, Brian McCann, or Victor Martinez in Dodger blue any time soon, right?

If Martin leaves, the options are thin. Despite A.J. Ellis‘ recent hot streak and Rod Barajas‘ excellent first impression, neither should be seen as anything more than backups, and I can’t express that feeling enough about Barajas and his career .283 OBP. The free agent market is slim other than Martinez, populated mostly by career backups in their late 30s and guys like John Buck and Gerald Laird with their own warts.

I don’t think there’s much doubt that, if healthy, Martin is preferable to the other alternatives. But will he be healthy? And is he so much better that he’s worth the extra $2-$3m he’ll probably make over many of those guys? On a team with a healthy payroll, that might be a risk worth taking; on the Dodgers, $6-$7m to a hole at catcher may be fatal.

So your options are these:

1) Take him to arbitration and accept that he’ll make approximately $6m, if not more, in 2011.

2) Non-tender him and try to replace him with cheaper options.

3) Try to trade him and make him someone else’s problem. ESPN’s Buster Olney recently said that Martin would have “some” value, but I can’t see how it’s a ton considering his production, salary, and health.

4) Attempt to sign him to a deal which would likely trade a lower salary in 2011 for a guaranteed 2012 or beyond.

For his part, Martin claims he wants to stay in Los Angeles, though it’s not as though he’d really come out and say he’s dying to leave right now anyway.

Personally, I think they’ll keep him. As for me… if those are my choices, I’d try to sign him to a two-year deal, lowering his 2011 cost. Avoiding two more rounds of arbitration is probably the best solution for both sides, and with the catching market being so sparse, and with nothing coming up in the system (thanks, Ned!), it’s hard to see another great option. I’d probably attempt to retain both Barajas and Ellis if possible for depth, though. If that kind of deal doesn’t work out, then I’d probably non-tender him (or trade him for what I could get) rather than risk giving up over $6m to him in arbitration. The health risk for declining production is just too great that price.

What about you?

Where Were You Five Years Ago?

September 23, 2010 at 12:51 am | Posted in Don Mattingly, Russell Martin | 15 Comments

Five years ago tonight, nearing the end of a 71-91 disaster which cost Jim Tracy and Paul DePodesta their jobs, the Dodgers trotted out this legendary lineup, losing 7-4 to Arizona in 12 innings.

Batting	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	SO	BA
Willy Aybar 3B	6	1	2	0	0	1	.389
Oscar Robles SS	6	1	2	0	0	0	.271
Jeff Kent 2B	5	2	2	3	1	0	.296
Olmedo Saenz 1B	4	0	1	0	1	0	.274
Yhency Brazoban P	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000
Antonio Perez PH	1	0	0	0	0	1	.312
Duaner Sanchez P	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000
Jose Cruz RF	6	0	2	0	0	0	.248
Mike Edwards LF	4	0	0	0	1	1	.256
Jason Phillips C	3	0	1	0	0	0	.235
Hong-Chih Kuo P	0	0	0	0	0	0
Ricky Ledee PH	0	0	0	1	0	0	.283
Jason Grabowski PR	0	0	0	0	0	0	.159
Steve Schmoll P	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000
Hee-Seop Choi 1B	1	0	0	0	0	1	.252
Jason Repko CF	5	0	2	0	0	1	.217
Jeff Weaver P	1	0	0	0	1	0	.235
Brian Myrow PH	0	0	0	0	1	0	.333
Mike Rose C	2	0	0	0	0	0	.200
Team Totals	44	4	12	4	5	5	.273

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/23/2010.

It’s a pretty horrifying list, especially if you remember following that season closely. That collection (Kent aside) of has-beens, never-was’s, and holy-crap-its-Jason-Grabowskis played 27 games in September of 2005. They went 9-18, averaging 3.93 runs per game.

After yet another dreadful (and let’s be honest, boring) performance from this year’s club tonight, managing just three hits, they’ve played 19 games in September. They’re 5-14, and averaging 2.47 runs per game.

This year’s club won’t lose 91 games; at worst they can lose 89, and even that’s unlikely. But this really illustrates my primary concern with naming Don Mattingly manager before the season was over, perhaps even moreso than his lack of managerial experience. This team totally rolled over and died weeks ago, and it seems that Joe Torre and Mattingly are completely powerless to do anything about it. After everything that’s happened this year, and with the way the season is ending with a whimper, this team needed a new presence – even if it wasn’t Tim Wallach.

The 2005 had far less talent than this year’s club, I think we can all agree. That debacle is probably only going to end up being just slightly worse than this year’s, and that caused multiple heads to roll. Yet, we want to keep the same culture headed into next year because… well, why, again?

******

I had an interesting and somewhat unexpected realization on Twitter tonight, after I posted a random fact about Russell Martin‘s line over the last two-plus years.

Me:

Random stat: since July 1, 2008, Russell Martin is at .248/.352/.330 (.681), with 16 HR in 1291 PA.

I_Alivandi:

@MikeSciosciasTI and what day did don mattingley take over as hitting coach?

Me:

Ha. July 18, 2008. RT @I_Alivandi: @MikeSciosciasTI and what day did don mattingley take over as hitting coach?

For the record, I don’t believe there’s a 1:1 correlation there. If there’s anything responsible for Martin’s decline, it’s that Grady Little and Joe Torre played him until he was about to drop. Still, I posted those stats to show that his subpar performance has been going on for quite some time, and it’s striking to see how closely the dates do align.

Dodgers Lose in More Ways Than One

September 22, 2010 at 12:30 am | Posted in Frank McCourt, Jamie McCourt | 8 Comments

Yes, the Dodgers lost yet again in another in a long string of otherwise unremarkable games. Really, even Clayton Richard is tossing shutouts at them now? And Joe Torre claims the club hasn’t quit. Other than A.J. Ellis continuing his hot streak with two more hits, this could have been just about any game from the last month – barely even worth mentioning.

Of course, the big news tonight occurred far from Dodger Stadium, as Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times (and again, I can’t say enough about his work on this) is reporting that the McCourt divorce case is expected to be resolved via a settlement. This isn’t good news because, well:

In any settlement, Frank would be expected to retain control of the Dodgers and Jamie would be expected to bow out. The McCourts had negotiated before the divorce trial began Aug. 30, but they were hundreds of millions of dollars apart.

If you were hoping this ugliness would end in a sale resulting from the forced split of the club, this isn’t a step in that direction – Frank would hang on to the team, and that’s not good for anyone. As always, follow Josh Fisher and Molly Knight for play-by-play from the courthouse.