Monthly Archives: September 2010

Is This the End of Logan White’s Tenure?

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Horrifying news just in, courtesy of BP’s Kevin Goldstein:

Some rumors starting to swirl about the #Dodgers and Logan White; or rather, Logan White and no longer with the #Dodgers.

There’s nothing more on this yet, but Goldstein has a ton of connections in the industry (earlier today, I wondered about Javier Vazquez, and within five minutes KG had checked with a big league exec.)

Obviously, it’s unfair to spectulate. But it sure is fun, so let’s do just that. There’s no obvious GM job, so perhaps he’s frustrated with the McCourts and is…

- Replacing Eddie Bane with the Angels?
- Going to Arizona (where he lives) to be Kevin Towers’ assistant GM?
- Or he thinks he’s got a great opportunity with the Mets, who are certainly going to replace Omar Minaya?

More as it comes in, but so far: not good.

Update: Baseball America’s Jim Callis chimes in:

Talking to Logan White right now: He has not been dismissed by the #Dodgers.

Planning on working for the team until he’s told otherwise. @thinkblue1194: What has Logan White said about his future with the Dodgers?

No. Logan White says he sincerely wants to keep working for the Dodgers. @MikeSciosciasTI: Is that code for “it’s his choice”?

Hey, that’s me!

Is Jonathan Broxton Tradeable?

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Of all the big stories we’re going to deal with this winter, none might be bigger than the fate of Jonathan Broxton, who’s due to make $7m in the second year of a two-year deal. Though I’ve been a regular defender of Broxton, I’d be completely okay with moving him. That has less to do with his performance than it does with my feeling that relievers are generally so replaceable that only the absolute top-tier are worthy of that kind of salary, particularly on a team with well-known payroll issues.

Until June 26, 2010, Broxton was one of those “top-tier” guys, earning every bit of his salary. After that; well, you know. We’ll get back to that in a second. More important for this discussion is, is there really any sort of trade fit this winter? You can stamp your feet all you want and claim “he has to go”, but regardless of whether I agree with that or not it won’t matter if there’s not a destination for him and an adequate return.

Any team that would take Broxton on would have to fulfill four requirements. #1, they’d need to have hopes of contending next year, since bottom-feeders certainly aren’t going to give up assets for a guy entering his walk year. #2, they’d need to have a healthy payroll, in order to fit most or all of Broxton’s salary. #3, they’d need to have something decent to give back, since you can’t just throw away someone who’s been as successful as Broxton’s been for nothing. #4, they’d need to have a need in the bullpen.

It’s hard to find a good fit.

Let’s eliminate the obvious teams who won’t even be in the conversation. Washington, Florida, Houston, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, Arizona, Baltimore, Toronto, Kansas City, Cleveland, & Seattle have little hope of contending next year. The other NL West teams all have set closers, and a trade within the division is unlikely anyway. That’s 15 teams out of the way, and 14 more to get through.

AL EAST
New York – Mariano Rivera is obviously the man there (yes, he’s a free agent, but no chance he leaves), and they’re more likely to spend their money on Cliff Lee, Carl Crawford/Jayson Werth, resigning Derek Jeter, and bolstering a suddenly faltering rotation.
Boston – Already have Jonathan Papelbon and Daniel Bard. Papelbon may hit the market, which would only hurt Broxton’s value.
Tampa Bay – Are about to lose Rafael Soriano, but they’re going to need to cut payroll, not add.

AL CENTRAL
Chicago – The Sox are full of talented bullpen arms, from Bobby Jenks and Matt Thornton to Chris Sale and Sergio Santos. Kenny Williams and Ned Colletti certainly have a history of making deals, and Williams is far from predictable, but their offense is brutal and they have bigger concerns than the bullpen.
Detroit – Here’s our first interesting situation. Jose Valverde is under contract and in no danger of losing his job, but the Tigers have money to spend and are looking for bullpen help. Detroit’s a possibility.
Minnesota – Matt Capps is under team control, Joe Nathan will be trying to come back, and their payroll is already at historic levels for them.

AL WEST
Anaheim – With Brian Fuentes gone, Fernando Rodney is the incumbent, so the Angels could be looking for relief help, but trades between the Dodgers and Angels are extremely rare.
Oakland – Already has a talented bullpen, and generally wouldn’t pay this much for another arm.
Texas – Neftali Feliz just set a rookie record for saves, and each one makes it less likely that he moves back to the rotation. With Lee a free agent, they’ll likely focus more on the starting pitching and first base.

NL EAST
Atlanta – The Braves have several young arms making waves, like Jonny Venters and Craig Kimbrel, and a limited payroll. Their big concern this winter has to be bats, with big holes in the middle of the lineup.
New York – Still on the hook for Francisco Rodriguez, and they’ve got far bigger concerns and payroll issues of their own.
Philadelphia – Brad Lidge and Ryan Madson are under contract for next year, and can you really imagine the Phillies wanting to import Broxton after his history there?

NL CENTRAL
Chicago – Carlos Marmol‘s job is secure, and the Cubs may not have a lot of free cash thanks to their many big-ticket obligations.
Cincinnati – Francisco Cordero is signed for next year, though was less than dominant this year. Aroldis Chapman may or may not return to the rotation. I suppose this is possible.
St. Louis – Ryan Franklin has been waffling on his intentions to retire, but even if he does the Cardinals have to worry about finding the money to pay Albert Pujols and Chris Carpenter, among other needs. (First person to suggestion a Broxton-for-Colby Rasmus deal gets banned from the site forever.)

So Detroit seems like the only real possibility, with lesser cases to be made for Cincinnati and St. Louis. Some teams could use Broxton as a setup man if not a closer, but few will pay $7m for an 8th-inning guy. In addition, the relief market is flush with talent this year, full of arms who may be had for less and didn’t melt down for the last three months. Soriano, Joaquin Benoit, Jon Rauch, Scott Downs, Kevin Gregg, and many others are out there, potentially offering less risk and more value.

Let’s say, for the moment, that Detroit has interest. What kind of deal could be made? I’ve always liked Ryan Raburn, who plays six different positions and can rake. But is a utility man worth a guy who was one of the top closers in baseball up until June? I’m not sure that it is. Otherwise, the Tigers are full of players untouchable (Miguel Cabrera, Justin Verlander), overpaid (Carlos Guillen), or headed into free agency (Brandon Inge, Gerald Laird, Jeremy Bonderman).

From this point of view, a Broxton trade seems unlikely unless the Dodgers eat a good portion of the cash or don’t get much back, and in that case, what’s the point? Besides, it’s not as though the Dodger bullpen isn’t full of their own questions for next season. The only two relievers you can put any faith in are Hong-Chih Kuo and Kenley Jansen, and even then you’re talking about a guy with a fragile arm and a guy who’s been pitching for just over a year. Beyond them, can you depend on Ramon Troncoso? Ronald Belisario? It’s hard to say that you can.

That’s not to say that you can necessarily count on Broxton, either. He was ungodly horrible after June 27, ending a stretch in which he’d been asked to throw 99 pitches in five days. It’s unfair to review his season without noting how incredible he’d been up to that point, however (48/5 K/BB). He claims he’s not hurt, and though his velocity is down, he’s still in the mid-90s. Besides, for anyone who claims that Broxton’s lousy second-half means he’s irreparably damaged… may I remind you of how Chad Billingsley bounced back this year from his terrible finish to 2009? A winter of rest, a better exercise program, and a season away from Joe Torre, could really do wonders here.

Look, if there’s a good deal to be had for Broxton. I’m not against it. I’m just not sure that there is, and he’s too valuable to be given away for mere peanuts.

Casey Blake Gets a Game Ball

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I’ve been somewhat critical of Casey Blake around here lately, and one nice series in the mountains isn’t going to change my opinion that he’s past his peak and ought to be a 1B/3B lefty-masher next year.

For tonight, though? Give it up to the Beard, who hit two of the four Dodger homers and single-handedly proved that the humidor needs more work. (Come on, three homers to Blake and James Loney? Don’t tell me that’s kosher.) Well done.

Also of note: Kenley Jansen picked up his third major league save by getting four outs. He’s making it hard to not consider him as closer material for next year; yes, he’s incredibly raw and new to pitching, but he’s also older than Clayton Kershaw and Texas’ Neftali Feliz, who set a rookie record with 38 saves this year.

Finally: Ronald Belisario came in with one on and one out in a 6-4 game in the 7th. He threw a wild pitch, got a groundout, then gave up the game-tying homer. For this, he got the victory. Wins… for the win. As usual.

Arbitration Decision: Ryan Theriot

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Ha! Helllllll no.

******

Okay, part of me contemplated just leaving it at that. But I suppose I should offer some backup. Where should I start? Oh, I don’t know. How about with the fact that there’s 157 players who have accumulated at least 475 plate appearances in 2010, and Ryan Theriot is the 3rd-worst in baseball in OPS+? Beating out Alcides Escobar and Cesar Izturis is hardly an achievement:

Rk Player OPS+ PA Year Tm R H 2B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
1 Miguel Cabrera 180 648 2010 DET 111 180 45 38 126 89 95 .328 .420 .622 1.042
153 Jason Kendall 70 490 2010 KCR 39 111 18 0 37 37 45 .256 .318 .297 .615
154 Jose Lopez 69 618 2010 SEA 48 141 28 10 58 22 65 .239 .269 .337 .606
155 Ryan Theriot 69 618 2010 TOT 68 153 15 2 29 38 73 .270 .319 .314 .633
156 Alcides Escobar 66 530 2010 MIL 56 115 14 4 40 33 66 .236 .287 .326 .612
157 Cesar Izturis 53 500 2010 BAL 42 109 13 1 28 24 53 .236 .282 .275 .557
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/28/2010.

“But,” you say, “OPS doesn’t measure defense, or position, or baserunning. That’s an unfair comparison.” Okay, then. Let’s go with WAR, and compare against only fellow second basemen. How does that turn out for Mr. TOOTBLAN? Well, he’s only the worst second baseman in baseball in 2010 (min. 300 PA):

Rk Player WAR/pos PA Tm R H 2B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
1 Robinson Cano 5.5 672 NYY 100 193 39 28 105 55 76 .318 .378 .530 .908
25 Skip Schumaker 0.2 513 STL 64 122 18 5 41 43 63 .265 .331 .341 .671
Rk Player WAR/pos PA Tm R H 2B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
26 Cristian Guzman 0.0 396 TOT 48 97 12 2 26 20 63 .266 .311 .337 .648
27 Gordon Beckham -0.3 498 CHW 58 112 25 9 49 37 92 .252 .317 .378 .695
28 Ryan Theriot -0.9 618 TOT 68 153 15 2 29 38 73 .270 .319 .314 .633
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/28/2010.

(Before anyone mentions it, yes I’m using B-ref’s WAR, and FanGraphs has a different flavor of it. There, he’s at 0.1, but that’s still next to last among 2B. It’s still not good.)

Want more? Since August 31st, Theriot’s hitting a robust .129/.228/.129, which works out to 9 hits in 81 plate appearances. He hasn’t had an extra base hit since August 26th, more than a month ago. I’m pretty sure Troy Tulowitzki picked up two while I was writing that sentence.

Oh, and Theriot turns 31 this winter and stands to make about $3.5m in arbitration. This is why I hated the deal that brought Theriot over so much; it’s not because I love Blake DeWitt, because I don’t, but because Theriot is older, more expensive, and adds little value. I will admit that he’s been better defensively than I had anticipated, but that’s probably in part due to my low expectations coming in. I suppose it shouldn’t be a surprise that a mediocre shortstop would make a decent defensive second baseman, though.

That said, “a bit above average” with the glove can’t compensate for “complete trainwreck of a disaster” at the plate. So if you’re still wondering whether Theriot deserves an arbitration offer, well, of course he doesn’t. If you’re willing to have a second baseman with an OPS+ of about 70, you can do it for a hell of a lot less than $3.5m. If you’re going to pay that, you won’t get a star, but you can at least get someone adequate. Someone with numbers like this, and headed in the wrong direction – since his “peak” in 2008, his BA and OBP have declined precipitously the last two years – is barely worth a roster spot, much less several million dollars. You can find a better way to use the money and the position, and I’ll touch on how to do that once the season is over.

But these are all pesky “facts”. I brought up the Theriot case on Twitter earlier this week, and people like ESPNLA’s Ramona Shelburne made their cases that they think the Dodgers will bring Theriot back, and I completely agree. I think they will bring him back, if only because he’s got a nice (if empty) batting average, top-notch “grit”, and they want to have something to show for this July’s disastrous trading deadline, especially if Ted Lilly leaves. Ryan Theriot will be back in 2011. But it sure doesn’t mean he should be.

Verdict: not a chance in hell should he be offered arbitration.

Arbitration Decision: Hiroki Kuroda

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Let me preface this right at the top by saying, “I want Hiroki Kuroda back”. Kuroda’s been stellar in his three years as a Dodger, despite suffering through a multitude of injuries and a scary liner to the head. 15 times he’s pitched at least seven innings without allowing more than one earned run; this season he’s finally managed to avoid the disabled list, and he’s going to surpass 200 innings and set career highs in nearly every category. He’s currently tied for the 7th-lowest OBP against in Los Angeles Dodger history, among those with as many innings as he’s thrown, and he’s been well worth the 3/$35.3m deal he signed before the 2008 season. If you can sign him to a two- or three-year deal, hopefully gaining a hometown discount, then I’m totally on board with that.

So you’d think, after I said to offer Ted Lilly arbitration, that making the same offer to the superior Kuroda would be a no-brainer. Kuroda’s a more effective pitcher, and he’s had more success as a Dodger. Easy, right? Well, it’s not quite that simple.

Though I have no doubt that Kuroda could go hit the market and get a big deal in free agency, I’m more worried that he’d actually accept the offer than I am that Lilly would. Kuroda will be 36 in February, and after uprooting his family from Japan three years ago, he may not want to leave the relative comfort of Los Angeles to ask them to adapt to somewhere new. Besides, he’s refused to comment on his future after this season, and the rumors about him possibly returning to Japan just won’t go away. If he’s unwilling to commit to more than than another year or two in America, then the lure of a long-term deal wouldn’t hold much sway for him – and there’s nowhere he could get a bigger salary for 2011 than he could by accepting arbitration from the Dodgers.

Kuroda is making $15.4m in 2010, and he’s been outstanding. If he accepted an offer of arbitration, he’d get $16m at the least, and possibly more. While you’d like to think that the team could negotiate a two-year deal to lessen that 2011 hit, if he only wants to commit for one year, then the team has just about no leverage to avoid that payment. There’s not a whole lot of teams who can afford that kind of cash for one season of a pitcher, and the Dodgers certainly aren’t among them. Besides, while I love Kuroda, that’s a lot of dough to drop on a 36-year-old with one healthy season out of three, particularly on a club with zero starting depth.

In a vacuum, there’s no doubt at all that Hiroki Kuroda is better than Ted Lilly, and it’s no secret which one I’d prefer to see in Dodger blue next season. Not offering Kuroda arbitration doesn’t preclude that, but extending that offer is just far too risky. You just can’t offer them both arbitration, because if they each accepted the results would be disastrous (who are kidding, it’s the Dodgers, so they won’t offer either, but indulge me), so I have to choose the one that is less likely to accept – and would cost less if he did.

Verdict: don’t offer arbitration, but do try to re-sign him.