A Decision Looms on Russell Martin
September 23, 2010 at 5:41 pm | Posted in Russell Martin | 45 Comments
Usually, I wait until after the season is over to start looking at arbitration decisions and roster construction. Of course, the season hasn’t been over until mid-October in each of the last two seasons, whereas this year it ended sometime in July. So let’s get to it, shall we? The Dodgers are going to have a ton of questions this offseason, but perhaps none bigger than this:
What do you do with Russell Martin?
I’m going to preface this by saying I’ve gone back and forth on it in my head about 40 times, and as I sit here beginning to write this, I still don’t know what my answer would be. I’m hoping that putting all these thoughts down helps me figure it out.
Let’s start with the facts. Martin will turn 28 years old in February, and he’s eligible for arbitration for the 3rd time this winter. As a “Super Two”, he’s one of the few players who can go to arbitration a fourth time next year, before becoming a free agent after 2012. He’s making $5.05m in 2010, and is in line for a raise despite missing from August 3 on with a torn labrum and fracture in his right hip.
There’s a multitude of facts working against Martin right now. Most pressing is the hip injury, because while he was fortunate enough to avoid surgery, there’s not very many comparables we can look back to. It’s not totally uncommon for baseball players to deal with an injury like this, and to come back healthy, but none of them have been catchers (as Will Carroll told Jon Weisman when the injury occurred).
Even if Martin is able to come back at full strength – a risk, since you won’t know until the spring – there’s the continued worry about his decreasing production. It may seem like a sudden drop from the exciting player we saw in 2006 and 2007, but Martin’s actually been a pretty mediocre bat for over two years, since mid-2008. As I mentioned earlier this week, Martin has hit just .248/.352/.330 (.681), with 16 HR in 1291 PA, since July 1, 2008.
Put another way, Martin’s SLG in 2009-10 was .330. Everyone’s favorite Little Leaguer wearing his dad’s uniform, David Eckstein, managed .336. He’s slowed down on the bases (net SB last four years: 12, 12, 5, 4) and even his OBP, an outstanding .385 in 2008, has settled into the .350 range over the last two years. Really, his 2009 (.307 wOBA) and 2010 (.306 wOBA) were in many ways identical at the plate; that seems to be the level he’s settling into, and it’s not great.
However, in much the same way James Loney gets penalized for being an average bat at a position that demands far more, Martin gets the benefit of being mediocre at a position where the benchmark is terrible. Really, this part can’t be overstated, and it’s the only reason we’re even having this conversation. His .679 OPS this year is good for just 175th in baseball, but (according to baseball-reference) it was worth 1.4 offense-only WAR. Meanwhile, Cardinals 2B Skip Schumaker, who had a very similar .676 OPS, gets only 0.6 oWAR because the bar is higher for 2B than for C. (I can’t even imagine what a .676 would be at 1B. -6 oWAR?)
On defense, well, catcher defense is notoriously difficult to quantify, though most observers would agree that Martin was a quality defender in his glory days, was sub-par in 2009, and had improved this year. Really, any hopes we had about seeing better defense behind the plate dissipated when Brad Ausmus, A.J. Ellis, and Rod Barajas allowed 31 straight stolen bases immediately after Martin’s injury. (Yes, I know that pitchers play a large role in allowing steals. That’s still not good, and it only made Martin look better.)
Despite that poor offensive production, Martin is tied for 16th among all catchers (min. 300 PA) in WAR over the last two seasons, making him roughly a middle-of-the-pack backstop. Though his power is all but gone (42nd of the 52 qualifying catchers), that’s generally a luxury from the position, and his OBP (11th) is more than adequate. Remember, though, that if you let him go, you have to replace him, and most of the catchers above him on that list aren’t available. Don’t expect to see Joe Mauer, Brian McCann, or Victor Martinez in Dodger blue any time soon, right?
If Martin leaves, the options are thin. Despite A.J. Ellis‘ recent hot streak and Rod Barajas‘ excellent first impression, neither should be seen as anything more than backups, and I can’t express that feeling enough about Barajas and his career .283 OBP. The free agent market is slim other than Martinez, populated mostly by career backups in their late 30s and guys like John Buck and Gerald Laird with their own warts.
I don’t think there’s much doubt that, if healthy, Martin is preferable to the other alternatives. But will he be healthy? And is he so much better that he’s worth the extra $2-$3m he’ll probably make over many of those guys? On a team with a healthy payroll, that might be a risk worth taking; on the Dodgers, $6-$7m to a hole at catcher may be fatal.
So your options are these:
1) Take him to arbitration and accept that he’ll make approximately $6m, if not more, in 2011.
2) Non-tender him and try to replace him with cheaper options.
3) Try to trade him and make him someone else’s problem. ESPN’s Buster Olney recently said that Martin would have “some” value, but I can’t see how it’s a ton considering his production, salary, and health.
4) Attempt to sign him to a deal which would likely trade a lower salary in 2011 for a guaranteed 2012 or beyond.
For his part, Martin claims he wants to stay in Los Angeles, though it’s not as though he’d really come out and say he’s dying to leave right now anyway.
Personally, I think they’ll keep him. As for me… if those are my choices, I’d try to sign him to a two-year deal, lowering his 2011 cost. Avoiding two more rounds of arbitration is probably the best solution for both sides, and with the catching market being so sparse, and with nothing coming up in the system (thanks, Ned!), it’s hard to see another great option. I’d probably attempt to retain both Barajas and Ellis if possible for depth, though. If that kind of deal doesn’t work out, then I’d probably non-tender him (or trade him for what I could get) rather than risk giving up over $6m to him in arbitration. The health risk for declining production is just too great that price.
What about you?
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There really is nothing out there in the catcher’s position. I think they have to do the first option or the last. I wouldn’t sign Martin further than 2012 unless he reaches a PA/GS quota.
Barajas would make a fine back-up as he could give Martin more rest (hopefully Don knows better) and AJ Ellis could be in the wings at AAA.
Comment by Oral Kershyster— September 23, 2010 #
Can we rename “Hobson’s choice” to “Martin’s choice”? Of course, Hobson only had one choice (i.e. none at all), but in this case, all options are equally unpalatable.
I am resigning myself to a long string of unwatchable Dodger teams through at least 2012 and likely beyond.
Comment by Rob McMillin— September 23, 2010 #
I think the least bad option is to sign him, hopefully for two years and see how much he can play. Hopefully if he does recover Mattingly will play him a more sane amount of games. Worst case we eat the remainder of his years like Schmidt , Dreifort., but not so expensive.
Comment by David S— September 23, 2010 #
If you can’t trade him because his production/salary ratio is too low, you shouldn’t sign him to that contract. Let him go, save money at C, and spend it elsewhere, like on Carl Crawford. Do you want Martin and Podsednik / Gibbons or do you want Ellis / Barajas and Crawford?
Comment by Cody— September 23, 2010 #
Uh, Crawford’s going to get $100m+. He’s not coming here, and that has nothing at all to do wiith Martin.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— September 23, 2010 #
Stop it man!!! Dodger fan thinks we will sign real free agent, hilarious! I just spilled my drink all over the keyboard, thanks.
Comment by DodgersKings323— September 23, 2010 #
two words. Yorvit Torrealba.
Dont look at his numbers so much as what his teams have done with him behind the plate.
Sign & trade Martin to Toronto for a reliever or 2 and then pick up Torrealba and resign Barajas.
Comment by LA Native— September 23, 2010 #
Let’s go sign Jason Marquis! He’s made the playoffs for like 12 years!
Comment by Gary— September 23, 2010 #
Dump him and save the money. Dodgers aren’t going to be very good for the foreseeable future anyway. Might as well spend the next few years getting by on the cheap while restocking the farm system.
This might have been avoided if the Dodgers were able to get something other than salary relief for Manny, and Ned had been willing to depart with Kuroda and Lilly in exchange for some prospects near the trading deadline.
Comment by Brandon— September 23, 2010 #
I’d keep him around. Might as well. Lower his salary by signing? Sure, if you can why not. As I see it, Martin is looking like a roll of the dice. Really, I wouldn’t be too broken up if Ned just tossed a coin. Heads, trade him. Tails, keep him. And yep, that Casey Blake deal is looking better and better.
Comment by Stephen— September 23, 2010 #
Can’t wait until that dead horse is beaten into dust.
Comment by Juan Pierre— September 23, 2010 #
I have to go with the try to sighn him. Cuz who are you going to replace him with? Alos, the argument that the money signing someone else will go to some one better is moot, because Frank will just keep the savings. lets be honest) Hope Donny realizes the need to give martin time off which, hopefully, will helps his numbers rise.
Comment by Gillbert— September 23, 2010 #
The problem is the inflated salary Martin would continue to draw based on performance three-four years ago. No way today’s Russell Martin is worth $6M, even with the inflated salaries. His claim to fame was his hitting; he’s never been much more than average defensively. If he can’t hit, he’s not worth the money. And watching him for the past two years, it’s clear that however he lost the ability to hit, he did lose it, and it’s likely not coming back. So he’s now essentially a hole in the lineup. You can pay a lot less for a hole in the lineup.
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A lot of it has to do with the Dodgers themselves. This team can’t afford highly paid holes in the lineup. It’s always hitting with the Dodgers. They need bats, bats and more bats. Yes, the incumbent of the catcher position is traditionally a light-hitter, but may also be a great defensive player and handler of pitchers. Many teams have won with this formula, provided they had hitting elsewhere. This Dodgers team can’t win with that formula, not if it’s overpaying a light-hitting catcher who’s also not all that great defensively.
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The key to Russell Martin is that “low trade value.” As has already been noted, if other teams don’t value him at his price, then why in the world should the Dodgers? I say save $5M a year and dump him.
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A postscript here: I lived in the SF Bay area for seventeen years before moving to South Carolina four years ago. I adopted the Oakland A’s as my rooting interest. A’s fans suffered mightily watching Jason Kendall, he of the $10M a year contract tendered by the “genius” Billy Beane, bat in the low .200s (and he wasn’t signed for his catching prowess, which was nonexistent) and otherwise burn a huge hole in the A’s limited salary budget. Kendall was a disaster. He turned out to be a cancer, despised by the other players, but he was also an exemplar of what happens when you pay big bucks to a “hitting catcher” who somehow forgets how to hit. Martin doesn’t seem to have Kendall’s personality issues, but he’s another “hitting catcher” who forgot how to hit.
Comment by SC Dodger— September 23, 2010 #
At least the A’s have redemption in Kurt Suzuki.
Comment by Aaron— September 24, 2010 #
Tough call [Carlos Santana].
I say bring Martin back next year and see what he does. If he is still a decent catcher (and handler of pitchers) just let him hit at the bottom of the order, like most catchers do. A hitting catcher is a big bonus, and this team has many other, more urgent, holes to fill.
Holes like GM and Owner….
Comment by Penguin's Pornstache— September 24, 2010 #
the other options out there are no better than he is. I would bring back Barajas and Martin and have them splitting time with Martin playing a little 3b as well to spell his body. I know he played there some but don’t remember how he did, so if he was awful then its a bad idea. But that way platooning him behind the plate & at 3b with Blake sort of solves 2 problem areas.
Comment by scott— September 24, 2010 #
What if neddy secretly works for the giants and was sent from hell errrr san fran to destroy the dodgers farm system?
Comment by MR. potato head— September 24, 2010 #
Then I’d say he’s doing a helluva good job!
Comment by SamAdams— September 24, 2010 #
If there were another catching option that guaranteed better results than Martin or a Martin and Barajas/Ellis tandem, then by all means, let Russell go. But 1)there aren’t any such options and 2)I don’t see the Dodgers letting Martin go on the heels of a serious injury. It wouldn’t be morally right and I don’t think they’ll do it.
I believe Martin will come back for another year and we’ll all see if he can recover from this injury. Maybe a fresh manager and (hopefully) some fresh coaching can get him back on track. Or he can spot Blake at third. Hah.
Comment by Shmolnick— September 24, 2010 #
“I don’t see the Dodgers letting Martin go on the heels of a serious injury. It wouldn’t be morally right and I don’t think they’ll do it.”
What’s morally right is not worrying about him because, in the remote chance that his career is over, he’s still sitting on a few million dollars.
What’s morally right for the individual is not always what is best for the group, and given the choice, the group takes precidence.
Comment by Gary— September 24, 2010 #
Let him go or try to trade him. Look for a prospect in another teams farm system and make a trade. The idea that the Dodgers should over pay for an average hitting catcher that is not a beast behind the plate is crazy. No one knows what is going to happen with this crazy ownership, but we know for sure that the funds are not unlimited. For every $$$ they over spend at catcher they will cheapskate somewhere else.
Comment by west coast ram— September 24, 2010 #
I would try and sign Martin, to an incentive laden contract with an option year to be the back up in 2011 to re-establish his value and prove he is healthy.
2011: $1.0m + incentives for GP
2012: $5.0m (TO w/$1.0m BO)
Who would be the starting catcher … Ryan Doumit. The Pirates are looking to shed his salary and the Dodgers need a solid starting catcher, have a recent trading history with the Pirates, plus have a piece that would help the Pirates and help even out the salaries for us, the player being Ryan Theriot.
Theriot would move back to SS with the Pirates and give them a solid infield (1B-Jones, 2B-Walker, SS-Theriot, 3B-Alvarez).
Why Martin … while Barajas has more power, there defense is similar and Martin has a much better career split vs. LHP (which is what he would see most of in backing up Doumit).
Ryan Doumit – 6’1” 210 – S/R – 04/03/81 (29)
R .273 .337 .464 .801 .302
L .257 .322 .375 .697 .295
F .986 24%
vs. NL West
ARZ .206 .264 .333 .597 (102 AB)
COL .364 .407 .455 .861 ( 55 AB)
SDP .300 .347 .414 .761 ( 70 AB)
SFG .293 .305 .440 .745 ( 75 AB)
@ NL West Stadiums
ARZ .216 .259 .314 .573 ( 51 AB)
COL .375 .423 .458 .881 ( 24 AB)
LAD .341 .426 .463 .889 ( 41 AB)
SDP .269 .321 .462 .783 ( 26 AB)
SFG .310 .326 .452 .778 ( 42 AB)
Russell Martin – 5’10” 230 – R/R – 02/15/83 (27)
R .266 .352 .382 .734 .297
L .294 .405 .444 .849 .318
F .990 31%
Rod Barajas – 6’1” 245 – R/R – 09/05/75 (34)
R .241 .283 .409 .692 .258
L .229 .283 .415 .698 .227
F .993 32%
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Why would the Pirates make this deal?
1. Theriot’s better career #’s
2. Theriot’s career vs. NL Central
Ronny Cedeno – 6’0” 190 – R/R – 02/02/83 (27)
2010 .253 .291 .371 .662
CAVG .283 .353 .636
FLDG 413 3358.2 1647 514 1083 50 194 .970 4.28
vs. NL Central
CHC .229 .250 .300 .550 ( 70 AB)
CIN .257 .303 .411 .715 (175 AB)
HOU .262 .283 .379 .662 (103 AB)
MIL .204 .254 .365 .619 (167 AB)
STL .335 .373 .467 .840 (167 AB)
@ NL Central Stadiums
CHC .263 .308 .361 .669 (471 AB)
CIN .274 .330 .453 .783 ( 95 AB)
HOU .197 .210 .295 .505 ( 61 AB)
MIL .179 .213 .321 .534 ( 84 AB)
PIT .283 .319 .426 .745 (371 AB)
STL .321 .367 .393 .760 ( 56 AB)
Ryan Theriot – 5’11” 180 – R/R – 12/07/79(30)
2010 .272 .320 .317 .637
CAVG .285 .348 .357 .706
FLDG 439 3699.0 1711 580 1090 41 229 .976 4.06
vs. NL Central
CHC – Has not played against former team -
CIN .310 .358 .408 .767 (245 AB)
HOU .253 .317 .336 .653 (241 AB)
MIL .338 .403 .430 .833 (237 AB)
STL .263 .307 .327 .634 (205 BA)
@ NL Central Stadiums
CHC .297 .350 .385 .735 (1170 AB)
CIN .294 .376 .343 .719 ( 102 AB)
HOU .286 .360 .378 .738 ( 119 AB)
MIL .364 .438 .488 .926 ( 121 AB)
PIT .316 .422 .421 .843 ( 114 AB)
STL .220 .267 .257 .524 ( 109 AB)
Comment by Bluefan— September 24, 2010 #
The idea is admirable, but there’s no way he’s going to take a $1m base salary in 2011, not a chance.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— September 24, 2010 #
MSTI,
With his falling production and unknown recovery aspect of his injury, how much of a base salary do you feel a team would offer him if we non-tendered him. I think $1 million would be fair, though he would probably get more incentives with another team.
Plus, with the $1.0 million BO to his 2012 contract, it brings the guaranteed money up to $2.0 million.
Comment by Bluefan— September 24, 2010 #
MSTI,
Also, what are your feelings on Doumit as a player/option?
Comment by Bluefan— September 24, 2010 #
Somebody is going to offer well over $1 million in free agency and there’s no way that Theriot alone gets Doumit – Theriot’s pretty useless.
Comment by Matthew— September 24, 2010 #
I think you’re vastly overrating Theriot here… and if we were to get Doumit I think we’d be better off dumping Martin and keeping Barajas as the backup for cheaper.
Overall I think the Dodgers are better off dumping Martin, I just can’t see him getting back to his old hitting.
Comment by Jason— September 25, 2010 #
They need to dump Martin. He is a mediocre player coming off a serious injury. Why waste $6,000,000 on him? I would rather have Ellis / Barajas and spend the saved money on pitching, outfielders, or any of the other numerous holes in the Dodgers line-up / rotation / bullpen.
Comment by Jeff— September 24, 2010 #
I argue let Martin go. He is a good on base guy but that is not what this team needs. They need a little pop and rod would answer that with aj as back up. I am not saying they are a dynamic theam but when you look at per value dollar you can’t even compare. It is sad to say let him go for all the talent he had but things need to change.
Comment by ramo— September 24, 2010 #
Pull a Biggio and bring him back as a 2b or 3b! He showed skill playing 3b in limited time and getting him out from behind the plate will reduce the injury risk, relieve his workload, and hopefully help him get back on track offensively. Do it!
Comment by Jon— September 24, 2010 #
I’ve seen this argument a few times, and I just don’t understand it. He’s barely passable offensively as a catcher – barely. He’d be the worst 3B in the game, hands-down. And then you’d still have a hole at catcher. Why would you want that?
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— September 24, 2010 #
You’re assuming his offensive stats stay the same as an infielder as they were as a catcher. I think there’s a significant chance that his offensive production significantly increases by being moved out of catcher. After all, the prevailing theory behind his offensive struggles has been that Torre overused him at catcher, and if you look at how he performed early this year before the workload started to catch up with him there’s reason for hope. In any case, putting him at 2b (assuming he’s able to make the transition defensively) doesn’t put the team at a significant disadvantage. He’s certainly better than Theriot–he has better OBP skills and more power (though, admittedly, “more power” than Theriot is not saying much!). Alternatively, put him at third, and if it doesn’t work you still have Blake to step in, and then you’ve saved resources to focus on other positions where there are more free agent/trade options in any case (e.g., LF, 1b, SP). I’m as frustrated as anyone with his lack of progress, but I don’t trust him as a catcher with this kind of injury.
Comment by Jon— September 24, 2010 #
I hear you. I just don’t see much upside. If he’s not going to be my catcher, I’d rather not have him at all.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— September 24, 2010 #
I hear you as well. Fact is, with this kind of injury, there’s a significant risk either way. Not sure we have the luxury of taking that risk given the amount of money it will take to retain him.
Maybe Santana or May will be ready to be our full-time catcher next year…oh, wait…
Comment by Jon— September 24, 2010 #
Just trade for a catcher. What is the big deal here, Martin can’t be the guy based on the salary/production. I’m sure he is a nice guy and maybe in another line up he will return to form but it won’t be with the Dodgers.
Comment by west coast ram— September 24, 2010 #
I say spend what little money we have on a corner infielder who can hit with some power. Given that the pitching has improved with Barajas, Ellis & Ausmus behind the plate one might think Martin could be the problem. Of course, if Neddie had’t stupidly moved Santana we wouldn’t be having this conversation.
Comment by Grabarkewitz— September 24, 2010 #
The starters have been good all year, if anything the bullpen has gone downhill so they should be blamed for that not getting credit for “improving” the pitching. Those guys are worthless bottom line, a Catchers job is defense.
Comment by DodgersKings323— September 25, 2010 #
The bullpen is a problem and that lies with the bonehead who is managing this team. He abused the pen like few others. As for the starters, they stunk it up early. Too much nibbling, not trusting their stuff and some weird pitch selections. I am sure that Torre can take some blame for that, but location would seem to be Martin’s responsibility and he set up housekeeping on the outside part of the plate. As for Martin’s defense, he didn’t show me much behind the plate other than increasing his caught stealing percentage. The guy doesn’t block pitches in the dirt, he doesn’t even attempt to block the plate and he does a piss poor job of framing pitches. If a Martin’s job is defense, he ain’t cutting it. I would rather have Barajas and Ellis for less money combined and better effort.
Comment by Grabarkewitz— September 25, 2010 #
After seeing Ellis getting the bat going i think i’m more comfortable with Martin leaving, maybe he just needed to start in more games.
Comment by DodgersKings323— September 25, 2010 #
I’m still not convinced. It’s a pretty small sample. Dude has NO power, and I don’t say that in the “we need a power bat” sense, I say that in the “pitchers will have absolutely no reason to fear him” sense.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— September 25, 2010 #
For all the negatives about Martin the one burning question no one seems able to answer is who replaces him? Barajas/Ellis is not the answer. For me the only real question is will Martin be healthy? There is just flat out no one available who would be a viable every day catcher, there’s just a bunch of back up level guys. We have more problems to deal with than catcher, namely LF, 3rd, 1st, and SP, SP, SP. I would say sign Martin as cheaply as possible and go after the other problems. BTW- good piece and good job setting up the problem and defining the options.
Comment by carolinabluedodger— September 24, 2010 #
How can the Dodgers seriously bring Martin back? Above average salary for a player who can’t run, hit, get on base or throw? Barajas or even some no-name guy in a trade is a better option. Any money saved by dumping Martin could go towards pitching or hitting.
Comment by Adonis— September 25, 2010 #
[...] this one’s a little easier than the question about Russell Martin, isn’t it? Of course you offer Ted Lilly [...]
Pingback by Arbitration Decision: Ted Lilly « Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— September 25, 2010 #
Nah. Get rid of him.
I understand your arguments in favor of retaining him– catchers are generally mediocre hitters anyway, etc.
But he only continues to decline, and I have a very bad instinctual feeling about this guy. I think that he isn’t long for the majors.
Comment by MPG— September 26, 2010 #
I would bring in Mike Piazza as a hitting coach and consultant to the team.take the attention away from the divorce.
Comment by mrl— September 30, 2010 #