Monthly Archives: September 2010

Is Casey Blake Done?

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For a guy who had only 49 MLB games and 2 homers entering his age-29 season, Casey Blake has managed to carve out quite the nice little career for himself. In 8 seasons as a full-time player for the Indians and Dodgers, Blake’s hit at least 15 homers every year (averaging 23/162 games) while putting up a 108 OPS+ and a decent glove at 3B. That’s a career to be proud of.

But Blake turned 37 years old about a month ago, and his 2010 has been a struggle. His .401 SLG (headed into tonight’s game against San Diego) would be the lowest full-season mark of his career, and his BA and OBP marks are close to falling under that category as well. It’s been even worse of late; he’s currently rocking an otherworldly slump of 3-36, with 18 whiffs.

Blake’s hardly the only member of the 2010 Dodgers to disappoint, of course, particularly as they play out the meaningless string to end the year. But he’s also the only one who’s going to turn 38 next season, and it’s fair to ask: is he done?

Looking deeper into the stats helps to shed some light here. Blake’s BABIP of .307 is nearly identical to his career .305 mark, so he’s not been particularly unlucky, and his BB% isn’t far off from his usual line either. But he’s certainly striking out more (26.9% would be a career high, and is 4% more than usual), and you can bet that’s in large part because he’s offering at far more pitches outside the strike zone than he’s ever done before (swinging at 27.5% of such offerings, well above his career mark of 20.9%).

Then there’s the fact that he’s getting killed on fastballs. Last year, Blake was worth 18.7 runs above average against heaters, good for 9th among MLB 3B. This year, he’s dropped down to just 3.5 runs above average against fastballs. So we have an older player, who can’t catch up to fastballs anymore, and is losing his plate discipline and swinging at more balls outside the zone – and he’s getting destroyed by fellow righties (.223/.293/.363). You don’t have to go too far to think that the bat speed is slowing and he’s having trouble adjusting.

Unfortunately, history isn’t on Blake’s side either. There’s only been seventeen seasons since 1961 in which a third baseman 37 or older (since Blake will be 37 most of next year) has managed to even play enough to qualify for the batting title. Looking at that list, most of them are Hall of Famers (Mike Schmidt, Pete Rose, Brooks Robinson, Wade Boggs, Cal Ripken, Jr.), or about to be (Chipper Jones) – and even then there’s quite a few dreadful seasons on that list. Do we really expect that Casey Blake is the one who bucks that trend?

Thanks to the budget and his veteran status, I fully expect that Blake is going to be the regular third baseman in 2011, but it’s not what’s best for the team (and is exactly what I feared when they signed him back in 2008). If Blake’s going to be back, he really ought to be a corner bat off the bench, who can provide some versatility, some power,  and play only against lefties (he’s still got a .901 OPS against southpaws). There’s value in that, of course, and it’d be better for the team than having him out there every day.

As for who should be playing 3B… well, wait for my massive 2011 plan to come out, just after the season ends.

Free John Lindsey?

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In the three weeks or so since being everyone’s feel-good story, John Lindsey has started just one game, and even then he made it only to the 7th inning before being pulled. He’s had just nine opportunities to hit. Meanwhile, Russ Mitchell started out 0-15 and has just 2 hits in 24 plate appearances (both homers, granted) and has received six starts, and even Trent Oeltjen has managed to pick up two starts despite a crowded outfield. Yet Lindsey’s barely gotten a chance.

If you ask Lindsey, I’m sure he wouldn’t have a word of complaint. I have no doubt he’d flash a big smile and say that just being with the team is a gift, and who am I to say otherwise? But the feel-good story tends to lose a bit of its luster when the subject is nailed to the bench while other callups get to play, doesn’t it? Lest you accuse me of putting emotion ahead of baseball, there’s been a glaring need for power on the Dodger bench for years. Finding out whether Lindsey is worth a reserve spot next year – particularly with James Loney being spectacularly ineffective against lefties (.224/.265/.312), which is Lindsey’s strength – would seem to be a worthwhile pursuit.

There’s only nine twelve games remaining this season. Let’s see Lindsey get a chance.

Joe Torre Hands Off to Don Mattingly

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After some initial hilarity at the idea that Preston Mattingly (Don’s son and failed Dodger prospect) was breaking major news on Twitter, the news is finally official: Joe Torre will not be returning as Dodger manager next season, and Don Mattingly will be taking over.

Just like many of you, I’m pretty disappointed by this. I want to caution against being too hard on Mattingly, because none of us really know what he’ll be like as manager, but I’m not at all happy about how this went down. Did Tim Wallach even get an interview? Did anyone? It certainly doesn’t seem like it, and it’s hard to think that Wallach will be back. The jury is still out on Mattingly as manager, to say the least, but his lack of experience plus the hope many of us had to completely turn the page on this coaching staff makes this hard to swallow.

As for Torre not returning, you know me well enough by now to know that I’m thrilled by this news, because Torre’s time in LA had clearly passed. Honestly, I could go for weeks about the issues I’ve had with his management – you know, things like incorrectly playing the matchups, generally overworking the bullpen, bringing in George Sherrill against a righty in the 9th inning of a tie game, letting Jonathan Broxton throw 95 pitches in five days (which he still hasn’t recovered from), sitting Matt Kemp in favor of Juan Pierre, continuous usage of clearly busted veterans like Garret Anderson & Mark Sweeney, running Russell Martin into the ground (in addition to his ridiculous “third base days off“, batting Juan Pierre leadoff every goddamn day, tempting the fates of both Chad Billingsley and Hiroki Kuroda by using them before and after long rain delays, and finally, the most ridiculous quote anyone’s ever given:

“I tried to reason who was going to give me the better at-bat – Berroa or Loney,” Torre said.

…which I’m still reeling from, even though it was two years ago. I’ve barely scratched the surface there, but I’m not going to go any further. Partially, that’s because I don’t have the time to clear my schedule for two solid weeks to dig up every stupid thing he’s done, but mostly because the last three years of this blog provide a pretty solid record of it.

Besides, it’s unfair to not at least recognize his accomplishments, and the team did make it to the NLCS twice in his three years. While I haven’t always agreed with the way he ran the clubhouse, the off-field drama this team has had to deal with since arrival – the divorce and Manny’s suspension, just to name two - could have easily led to a complete collapse under a lesser manager. It hasn’t been smooth, but Torre mostly avoided that, and he deserves credit for it.

Mostly, I’m just glad he’s moving on. Torre may have been the right fit for the 2008 and 2009 teams, talented outfits that were trying to heal from the “veterans-vs-kids” split of the Grady Little years. Clearly, he’s not the right fit for the 2010 club, and I can’t see his “old-school” style working as this team moves forward.

Finally, at least I can say I was consistent on Torre. Back in October of 2007, we first started to hear the Torre-to-LA rumors. While I mistakenly dismissed them as being unrealistic, I did put down my feelings on Torre coming to Dodger Stadium at the time.

Second of all, much as we really, really, don’t like Grady Little, I really didn’t want to see Torre in Blue either. Torre and Little are actually very similar types – pretty good at managing people, and pretty rotten at managing baseball lineups. It’s pretty common knowledge that Torre ruins bullpen arms by picking the 1 or 2 guys he trusts and using them 8 days a week – what do you think would happen if he got his hands on Broxton? No thanks. We’ve already got a laid-back, players’ manager who makes questionable lineup decisions. No need to make a lateral move.

Besides, all due respect for what Torre’s accomplished in New York, it’s pretty obvious that he was helped out just a little by all the, you know, talent. People forget now, but he was regarded as a pretty mediocre manager in his stops with the Mets, Braves, and Cardinals – St. Louis actually fired him in mid-1995, before he took the Yankees job. You know why? Those teams sucked. Do you remember the late-70′s Mets? Of course you don’t, because the reason the mid-80s Mets were so good was because they were able to take players like Strawberry and Gooden in the first round, thanks to their terrible finishes under Torre. This is a guy, who in 15 opportunities before going to the Bronx, finished in first exactly once – and he just happened to have the best player in the league on his 1982 Atlanta team, 26-year-old NL MVP Dale Murphy. Then he goes to a team who just happens to have Jeter, Rivera, Posada, etc. etc. entering their primes and look at that, all of a sudden he can manage. Amazing what talent can do, isn’t it?

That was just about three years ago, and while I’ve had my share of poor opinions, I can’t really find a thing to quibble with there.

Congratulations, Russ Mitchell

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Let’s take the bright spots where we can, and Russ Mitchell ending an 0-15 start to his career with not only his first hit, but his first home run, is worth noting. Why is the picture above of his back, and not, say, him following through on the dinger? Well, you can thank ESPN.com for having 47 pictures of fog and Jonathan Sanchez, but only this one of Mitchell.

Otherwise? Ted Lilly got bombed, and I can’t think of a single reason why anyone should be surprised that after his stellar first four starts, he’s got a 7.09 ERA and a 1.020 OPS against (and eight homers!) in the ensuing five. Did anyone really think he was going to keep up that performance? Of course not.

Of course, when your team once again manages only four hits – one by pinch-hitter Chin-lung Hu, of all people – it’s really not going to matter what your pitching does… not that anyone could have seen that coming.

******

I’m away for the weekend again, so you might not hear from me until Sunday evening. In the meantime, be sure to check out Dave Brown’s stellar interview of Vin Scully for Yahoo’s Big League Stew. Dave was kind enough to ask me to help with a few questions, but as other people have noted, Vin is so reluctant to talk about himself that interviews with him are often dry or generic. Dave was able to get Vin to share some new (to me, at least) facts and stories; I particularly enjoyed the “Seventh Inning Walk“.

Finally: yes, I’ve seen Peter O’Malley’s comments about Frank McCourt needing to sell, and yes, I completely agree. Of course, we started down this path when O’Malley sold to FOX in 1998, so while I like seeing more public pressure on the McCourts, O’Malley has to share at least a small portion of the blame here.

Bob Schaefer Airs the Dirty Laundry

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Bench coach Bob Schaefer was on Jim Bowden’s “Inside Pitch” XM radio show this afternoon. Big deal, right? Well, think again, because Schaefer was full of juicy quotes about the club, which Bowden was kind enough to put on Twitter. Such as…

Bob Schaefer,LAD bench coach just told us that he doesn’t see Joe Torre coming back to manage next year, but thinks he will stay in the game

Schaefer told us that Don Mattingly turned down managerial positions to stay in LA….but with ownership situation..everything is up in air

Bob Schaefer just told us that Manny Ramirez was “Superman” before he tested postive for ped’s and not the same player afterwards

Bob Schaefer: “Will have to pull a rabbit out of the hat for the Dodgers to contend next year”

Bob Schaefer: I have no comment on Matt Kemp, he is a mystery to me

 (**full disclosure, I didn’t hear any of this live, but this is all coming directly from Bowden’s Twitter, so I doubt he’s misstating any of it.)

Whether you agree with his positions or not isn’t the point; you can certainly make the case either way. But what’s notable here is that these aren’t the words of a man who expects to be back in 2011, particularly on the point that the team “will have to pull a rabbit out of the hat for the Dodgers to contend next year.” Nor is this seemingly the best way to keep peace within the clubhouse for the rest of this year, is it?

I also wonder about his statement that Don Mattingly turned down managerial positions to stay in LA. I assume that he wasn’t clear and actually meant managerial interviews, which I believe he could have had in Cleveland and Washington. As far as I know, Mattingly’s never been offered a managerial spot, unless some team wanted him to start in the minors.