MSTI’s 2010 in Review: Center Field
October 29, 2010 at 11:54 am | Posted in Matt Kemp, Trent Oeltjen | 33 Comments
Matt Kemp (D-)
.249/.310/.450 .760 28hr 2.3 WAR
Hoo boy. Where do I even start with this one? Remember, Kemp came into the season as arguably the best center fielder in baseball, and most thought that he’d only scraped the peak of his potential. So to say that expectations were sky-high is largely understating it, and he certainly got off to a start that would justify such hype, hitting seven homers in a ten game stretch in April.
I know April 21 is hardly any sort of sample size into a season, but it’s important to remember how in love we were with him at the time:
Matt Kemp may be the single most dangerous hitter in baseball right now, to the point where I’m getting prettttty close to not issuing my standard “non-Pujols division” disclaimer. He’s tied for the MLB lead in homers, he leads MLB in RBI, and he’s one game short of having a hit on every single day of the season. (And even in that game, on April 9 in Florida, he had a walk and three deep flyballs.) He’s homered in 5 of the last 8 games, and his slugging percentage right now is .750. If that number doesn’t mean anything to you, just know that if he was able to keep it up throughout the season, it’d be tied for the 11th highest mark in baseball. Ever.
Of course, no one ever expected he’d keep that up for a full season, but in the back of our minds, we allowed ourselves to remember that this was someone we’d all hoped would break out, not just some no-name who’d had a few fluky hot weeks. Near the end of April, on the 28th, he had a .934 OPS… and then Ned Colletti had to go call him out for his subpar baserunning and defense, which seemed like a ridiculous statement at a time in which the Dodgers were imploding in nearly every way. It’s like I said on April 30:
I think what got lost in Colletti’s comments is that he’s not exactly wrong. Kemp has looked horrendous in the outfield this season, and I can’t put my finger on exactly why that is. I do think part of it is that after years of his defense being underrated, coming into this year he was now overrated, since he never really deserved last year’s Gold Glove in the first place. The Gold Glove voting is such a fantastically flawed process (it often just goes to the best hitter at a position) that it’s barely even worth recognizing, yet most fans still take it to mean something.
Still, that doesn’t absolve Kemp. His play on defense has been lousy, and it needs to change. But being right doesn’t absolve Colletti either; the whole point of yesterday’s post was not that Kemp’s play isn’t a problem, but just that the general manager of a team – one who’s made more than his share of mistakes – shouldn’t be publicly calling out the best player on his team without mentioning the horrible pitching that Colletti himself assembled, or the dozens of other far more pressing issues.
Kemp didn’t quite keep up his scorching April, but he was still quite good in May, getting a hit in 23 of 28 games and ending the month with an .857 OPS. But it was all downhill from there; Kemp didn’t have a month with an OBP over .300 for the rest of the season. In early June, I wondered if he’d been playing too much, but the shit really hit the fan in late June when he got into a confrontation with bench coach Bob Schaefer and was benched. That wouldn’t be a big deal, except that it wasn’t one game, it was three games – and Joe Torre said that it would have been longer if Kemp hadn’t come to him to talk, as though that makes any sense.
Kemp briefly perked up, hitting three homers in his first five July games – and earning Torre a lot of undue credit – but it was short-lived, as his July OPS was just .715. August was even worse, at .694, as the off-field issues continued when he was called out by Larry Bowa and had his agent, Dave Stewart, start to wonder aloud if Kemp ought to be traded. That’s about when people started wondering how to fix what had gone wrong.
ESPN’s Rob Neyer looked at Kemp’s relationship with the coaching staff:
I don’t have any idea, really. But you can understand the coaches’ frustration with Kemp just a little, can’t you? Larry Bowa and Bob Schaefer have been around the game forever, and they haven’t seen many players with Matt Kemp‘s raw talents. And it must be killing them to think he’s wasting it.
Which doesn’t mean they’re helping. Maybe Kemp would benefit from an attitude adjustment, but maybe that process would be facilitated by a coaching adjustment.
Which brings to mind a question that nobody seems to have asked … What’s Joe Torre been up to? In the spring, the general manager ripped Kemp. In the summer, the coaches ripped Kemp. Is Torre waiting for the fall?
Of course, that’s probably too late for the Dodgers, who have already fallen too far. Maybe the solution here is to keep Kemp and find a new coaching staff. Because the old staff doesn’t seem to have accomplished much this summer.
If you know me at all, you know I couldn’t possibly have agreed more with that. Later in August, Chad @ MOKM took a great and thorough look at Kemp’s issues, and settled on his mechanics as the culprit, but Kemp’s September wasn’t much better, with just a .664 OPS.
But there were signs of hope. On September 28, he homered in Colorado. The next day, he left the yard at Coors Field again, and took responsibility for his poor season, saying that he owed the fans more. The team came home for a season-ending three game set with Arizona, and Kemp homered in the opener… and the second game.. and the third game. That’s five homers in five games to end the season, and it was about that time I started thinking that everyone should just let him be:
No one doubts the talent is there, and Ned Colletti claims he has no plans to move him. His clashes with the current coaching staff have been well-documented – though he seems to have a good relationship with Don Mattingly – and if there’s anyone who looks to benefit from the post-Torre era, it might just be Kemp, my early choice for the “No, Chad Billingsley wasn’t dead after one bad year either, now was he?” award next year.
So yeah, Kemp gets that D-, and he certainly earned it with his poor defense (by some measures, he was the worst outfielder in baseball), atrocious base-running (19 SB, but 15 CS), and whifftastic tendencies (shattering the club record for K’s). I’m not defending his performance in 2010, but I think there’s a lot to look forward to in 2011. He ended the year on a great hot streak, Torre, Bowa, & Schaefer are all gone, he’s got a lot to prove after a poor year, he’s playing for a new contract, and he’s still just 26.
Besides, as far as “disaster” seasons go, you can do a lot worse than a 107 OPS+ and a career-high 28 homers. I’ve talked a lot about players I don’t expect to see much improvement from in this review series – like Russell Martin, James Loney, Casey Blake – but as I said in the last quoted piece above, Kemp’s got everything it takes to make 2011 a big year. Now let’s just leave him alone and let it happen.
Trent Oeltjen (inc.)
.217/.357/.348 .705 0hr 0.1 WAR
I just wrote 1200 words on Matt Kemp. Do you really care about Trent Oeltjen and the 30 meaningless plate appearances he got in September? Fine, fine, let’s make this quick. He was released by Milwaukee’s AAA club in July, with me laughing at his choice to join the Dodgers:
For the sake of completeness, let’s note that the Dodgers released Timo Perez from AAA and signed former D-Back Trent Oeltjen, who had opted out of his minor-league deal with the Brewers last week. The Australian native has had minor league OPS’s over .800 in each of the last three years, and had been on a hot streak recently. But it’s not his bat that denied him a call-up:
Oeltjen had been on an offensive tear with the Sounds, raising his batting average to .301 with 24 doubles, two triples, eight homers, 38 RBI and a .851 OPS. But his defense wasn’t considered major-league ready, so the Brewers opted not to call him up and move out one of their players.
“Our reports were that he was coming on dramatically with the bat,” said assistant general manager Gord Ash. “We liked him, obviously. That’s why we signed him. But as a defensive outfielder, he wasn’t what we were looking for.”
So after opting out of his deal, a man who clearly should have signed with an AL team in order to keep the DH option open not only stayed in the NL, but he signed with perhaps the only other team who can top Milwaukee’s level of outfield stackitude. Time for a new agent, maybe?
Oeltjen raked in ABQ, as everyone does, with an environment-fueled .979 OPS. That earned him a call-up in September, where he didn’t do all that much in his limited chances, but he did get four starts in center field, so his defense couldn’t have been all that bad. Honestly, he’s got a pretty decent track record of minor league hitting, and he’ll be just 28 next year; I can think of worse players to stash away in AAA as depth.
******
Next! A tale of two Andre Ethiers! Xavier Paul tries to make his mark! And Reed Johnson‘s ridiculous facial hair! It’s right field!
Should Ivan DeJesus Get a Shot at the 2B Job?
October 28, 2010 at 11:38 am | Posted in Ivan DeJesus | 44 Comments
We’re taking a one-day break from season reviews to point out that Ivan DeJesus is off to a hot start for Don Mattingly’s Phoenix Devil Dogs of the AFL, hitting .370/.433/.593 with a homer in seven games. Granted, seven games is a meaningless sample size, and that minimal impact is lessened even further when you’re talking about a fall league of varying competition, so let’s not put too much stock into that stat line. That said, the opportunity to play directly for the new manager of the big club provides a chance to make an impression beyond the numbers.
For his part, DeJesus’ goal is clear:
“I need to be ready in Spring Training,” he said, “and get that job at second base.”
That’s what he wants, of course, but the more pertinent question for us is, is that what we want? Among the many holes the Dodgers have headed into 2011, second base is perhaps the largest. I’ve been through the horrendousness of non-tender candidate Ryan Theriot more than once, and Jamey Carroll shouldn’t be seen as a full-time option at the position. With Blake DeWitt in Chicago, the trade market largely barren beyond Dan Uggla (who’s likely to be priced beyond the Dodgers’ reach), and the free agent market not offering much (and no, Orlando Hudson will not be returning), there’s clearly an opportunity for DeJesus to make his mark.
First, some background: DeJesus was drafted as a shortstop in the 2nd round of the 2005 draft, a pick the Dodgers received as compensation for losing Adrian Beltre to Seattle. Most reviews of him – both predraft and during his first two seasons – mentioned above-average glovework and good on-base skills, but worried about a total lack of power. He largely lived up (?) to those preconceptions between 2005-07, not once generating an OPS over .800 due to puny slugging numbers, but showing encouragingly improving OBP, with marks of .354, .361, and .371 during those years.
In 2008 at AA Jacksonville, DeJesus had a true breakthrough year despite not turning 21 until May, making him one of the youngest players in the league. His .324/.419/.423 line got him a spot in the Futures Game during the All-Star Break and earned him the Dodgers’ 2008 Minor League Player of the Year title.
Heading into 2009, hopes were high. Baseball America had him as the #6 Dodger prospect, while Baseball Prospectus had him at #2 thanks to some kind words:
De Jesus has an excellent chance to outdo his father, a glove-first shortstop who spent 15 years in the majors, and Junior’s pedigree certainly factors into a basic baseball intelligence that raises every aspect of his game. For the second year in a row, his stock rose, and he earned the organization’s Minor League Player of the Year honors for his season at Jacksonville. Though he doesn’t project for much power, Ivan the Younger is a patient, contact-oriented hitter who works the count and sprays line drives to all fields. He’s a strong defender as well, with steady hands, good range, and a solid arm; some feel that second base may be his ultimate destination even with Hu’s fall from grace.
With Orlando Hudson signed for just one season and Rafael Furcal always at risk of injury, the hope was that DeJesus would continue to progress at AAA in 2009, and challenge for a middle infield job in 2010. Those were hopes were dashed when he broke his leg sliding into home during a spring game in early March, costing him the entire season (save for four late season rookie-league games).
The injury was serious enough that he had to be shut down during winter ball in Puerto Rico, and he was still feeling pain during this year’s camp, despite proclaiming himself healthy. Now more of a second baseman than a shortsop, 2010 was seen as a big test, and DeJon Watson had plenty of nice things to say about him in a March interview with Baseball Prospectus, who also claimed he had the “best plate discipline in the system”.
Depending on how you look at it, 2010 (.296/.335/.405) was either a step backwards or a nice comeback. His OPS dropped 100 points from 2008, mainly because while he struck out exactly as often as he did in 2008 (81 times), his walks dropped by more than half from 76 to 32. On the other hand, he’d missed over a year with a serious injury, jumped up a level, and still hit nearly .300 while setting a career high in doubles (33) and tying his high in homers (7).
That said, not in DeJesus’ favor is that he didn’t receive a September callup alongside fellow infielders Russ Mitchell, Chin-lung Hu, and John Lindsey. At the time, Ken Gurnick mentioned it in an mlb.com article:
Clubs send a message with the players they call up in September. For the Dodgers, the most glaring omission from the list of callups is second baseman Ivan DeJesus Jr., who hit .299 with 89 runs scored and 70 RBIs at Triple-A Albuquerque after missing the entire 2009 season with a broken leg suffered in Spring Training.
DeJesus was drafted in the second round in 2005 as a shortstop, but he played second base this year, and scouts say his range and footwork around the bag need improvement, perhaps the aftereffects of the injury.
Sources also claim that DeJesus, the son of longtime Major Leaguer Ivan DeJesus, is in the doghouse because he has yet to grasp some of the subtleties of teamwork and game approach. He is scheduled to play in the Arizona Fall League.
So what say you? I’ve seen it suggested in several places that DeJesus ought to be given a real chance to win the 2011 second base job, but I’m not so sure. He’s still quite young (won’t be 24 until May), and he’s only had one year as a full-time second baseman, which is important, judging by the scouting comments from the Gurnick article. Another year in ABQ’s high-offense environment, another year off the injury, and another year refining his 2B fundamentals don’t seem like a bad idea at all to me, and if he can parlay that into a late-season call-up, then you give him a shot in 2012 – when he’ll still be just 25.
Still, someone has to play 2B, and it absolutely cannot be Theriot, who may make nearly $4m in arbitration. You can either pay a comparable cost to get better (though not star-level) production than Theriot, or you can get Theriot-level performance for about 25% of that cost. So if DeJesus continues to impress Mattingly in Arizona, and completely tears up the spring, then sure, I wouldn’t be upset to see him there. I just think that it’s probably better for both him and the team to get a stop-gap solution at second base (not that there’s a ton of options, but it’s not hard to do better than Theriot) with an eye towards DeJesus later in the year or the year after.
MSTI’s 2010 in Review: Left Field
October 27, 2010 at 12:27 pm | Posted in Garret Anderson, Jay Gibbons, Manny Ramirez, Scott Podsednik | 19 CommentsWould you believe that nine different players started a game in left field for the Dodgers in 2010? We’ve already discussed Jamey Carroll and Russ Mitchell in the infield, and you’ll see Trent Oeltjen in center field. Then, even though they had more starts in LF than anywhere else, I’m putting Reed Johnson and Xavier Paul with Andre Ethier in right field just to balance out these articles a bit. That still leaves four men here…
Manny Ramirez (C)
.311/.405/.510 .915 8hr 1.3 WAR
I feel like I wrote a pretty definitive review of Manny’s time in LA back in August, and as little as I want to write more about him, that’s about as much as you probably want to read more about him. So let’s just look at the 2010-only section of that piece:
Heading into 2010, expectations were high. The expected controversy over whether Manny would exercise his opt-out clause never came, as he quietly acknowledged he wouldn’t be passing up his guaranteed 2010 payday on November 6. With that out of the way, conditions were ripe for a comeback. Manny had had the entire winter to rest his hand, he was in a contract year, and if the thought of playing for his next payday didn’t motivate him, the embarrassment he’d suffered in 2009 certainly would.
Well, it didn’t work out exactly like that. Manny landed on the disabled list with leg issues three separate times, and played just 65 games with the Dodgers, the fewest in his career other than a cup of coffee as a 21-year-old with the 1993 Indians. Eight homers, 232 plate appearances, months on the disabled list, and far more Scott Podsednik and Garret Anderson in left field than we ever could have dreamed. That’s not exactly what we’d hoped for, I’ll grant you.
Classic Manny? Clearly not.
But again, nor was it the post-steroid disaster that the media liked to portray it as. Manny’s .915 OPS was 13th in MLB, among players with at least 225 PA. That’s higher than players like Adrian Gonzalez, Joe Mauer, Prince Fielder, Ryan Zimmerman, and Evan Longoria. Remember, PED suspension or not, we’re still talking about a guy who’s 38 years old. A .915 OPS is 91% of his career average 1.000 OPS; for a 38-year-old to get that close to matching his usual Hall-of-Fame level is impressive. In fact, it was the 21st highest OPS+ of any ballplayer 38 or older (220 PA or more) in history, and the list above is littered with names like Ted Williams, Hank Aaron, Babe Ruth, and Ty Cobb.
I’m not saying he was worth every penny this year; it’s hard to do so with how much time he missed. But to keep up the facade that he could no longer produce is just wrong. If the numbers above aren’t convincing proof of that, how about the fact that they’ve scored more than 5 runs per game with him in the lineup, and fewer than 4 without him? If he’s not classic, “in his Boston prime” Manny, or superpowered “just got to LA” Manny, he’s still an effective force in the lineup, one the Dodgers have proven they cannot win without.
Manny ended his Dodger career with a bizarre ejection after just one pitch while pinch-hitting with the bases loaded, which is oddly appropriate. He also ended his Dodger career atop the team’s all-time leaderboards in OBP, SLG, OPS, and OPS+ (minimum 500 at-bats), all in exchange for a failed third baseman, a mid-level pitching prospect, and a ton of heartburn. Now, he’s gone, dropped onto the White Sox for nothing but salary relief, and no matter how you feel about Manny’s time in LA, there’s not much argument we got exactly what we signed up for. Dominant offensive performance, more than a little controversy, and a less-than-glorious exit? Yeah, that sounds about right.
None of that’s really changed, with the exception of this week’s revelation that Manny had hernia surgery to fix a groin issue which had bothered him all season. To put up the line he did despite all of the leg issues he had is impressive, though of course all the time he missed due to them balances that out quite a bit.
Scott Podsednik (D)
.262/.313/.336 .648 1hr -0.2 WAR
When Podsednik came to town, I didn’t hate the deal as much as you might think, reasoning that he could be of value as depth in LF and CF and as speed off the bench. (Let me clarify that by saying that I didn’t hate his acquisition; the team overpaid to get him, but that’s not his fault.)
That’s not how it worked, however. Podsednik basically became the everyday LF until he was hurt, a role he was woefully unqualified for, especially since he’s about one-tenth the hitter that Manny was. This was clear less than a month after he arrived:
So here’s all I ask of the team: whichever path you choose, don’t half-ass it. If you think you really have a shot, then don’t trade Manny. There’s no question that his presence fundamentally changes the lineup, and you can’t really be saying you’re trying to win if you’re playing Scott Podsednik (one of the three worst .300 hitters this year, according to baseball-reference) in left field instead of Manny, because that’s a huge dropoff in production. There’s no way you can let Manny go, and act as though you’re still a contender.
But pretend they did, and Podsednik didn’t really do much to contribute before his season ended due to plantar fasciitis in early September:
If this is indeed it for Podsednik’s season, his Dodger tenure ends as a disappointing one. His line of .262/.313/.336, with 5 steals and 3 caught stealing, comes out to just a 79 OPS+ (and -0.2 WAR), well below his 107 OPS+ line for Kansas City. By comparison, Lucas May had an .878 OPS with 5 homers in 24 games for the KC AAA team. So there’s that.
Podsednik will be 35 in March and showed zero power, poor defense, and mediocre on-base skills with the Dodgers. There’s absolutely no way he should be back in 2011. So of course he’ll be back in 2011.
Garret Anderson (those damned kids are on my lawn again!)
.181/.204/.271 .475 2hr -1.1 WAR
Like with Manny, I’ve already spent far too much time this season discussing a late-30s outfielder who didn’t even last the season. So we’ll just point out that it was a bad idea when the rumors surfaced in January…
Yes, I don’t like him because he’s old (38 in June). Yes, I don’t like him because he’s coming off the worst year of his career despite having just moved to the easier league (.705 OPS, the third year in a row that decreased). Yes, I don’t like him because he is by all accounts a horrible fielder (-16.5 UZR/150 last year). Hey, a senior citizen who can’t hit or field? Sign me up?!
But what I like even less than the fact that Garret Anderson is a terrible baseball player is the idea of Garret Anderson. Let’s say he was where he was three or four years ago, when he was past his peak but still an average-ish hitter. That’s still valuable, but you’re not playing that guy over Manny, Kemp or Ethier, right? Nor was his glove so good that he’s really a huge upgrade over Manny in the late innings, agreed? And since he’s not much of a LF, you’re sure not going to put him into center or right to rest those guys either.
It was a bad idea in March when he was signed…
Since then, the Dodgers have imported Reed Johnson to be the 4th outfielder, plus Giles and others to battle for the last bench spot. What Garret Anderson adds to that mix is… well, not “quality” exactly… I don’t know. Formaldehyde?
It was a bad idea at the end of April when he had proven he had nothing left…
Speaking of Manny’s absence… Garret Anderson needs to be cut. Now. Not when Manny comes back. Today. After another 0-4 last night, in which he didn’t even get a ball out of the infield, he’s hitting an almost unbelievable .122. This experiment was a terrible idea from the beginning, and it’s a terrible idea now. The pinch-homer he hit on April 22 is the only hit he’s had in nearly three weeks. How much more do we need to see here? He’s had a nice career, but he’s cooked, and it’s time to acknowledge that. And for the love of GOD, Torre, if you must play him, can you please stop batting him second? The thought process here is almost unfathomable.
And how did it all end up? With arguably the worst season by a Dodger hitter in 100 years:
The list you’re looking at above is of the ten worst seasons by OPS+ in Dodger history, among hitters with as many plate appearances as Anderson’s 163. You’ll notice that of the six seasons worse than Anderson’s, not a single one came after World War I. Let me put that another way: none of those seasons were even recent enough to take place in Ebbets Field, which didn’t open until 1913. Jul Kustus played just that one season as a backup for the Dodgers, never returned to the big leagues, and was dead six years later. Bill Bergen was so historically bad that he still holds the record for the longest hitless streak by a non-pitcher (0 for 46 in 1909), though he was regarded as an outstanding defensive catcher. Not exactly the company you want to keep if you’re Anderson, especially when you’re not contributing at all on the bases or in the field.
The whole experiment was actually pretty painful to watch, just because of the respect Anderson had earned in his long career in Anaheim. He never should have been out there, and knowing that the Dodgers chose to not go with their best 25 men for two-thirds of the season was infuriating. I’ll be shocked if we see Anderson in the big leagues again.
Jay Gibbons (∞)
.280/.313/.507 .819 5hr 0.1 WAR
Here’s how little I thought of Gibbons being signed to a minor-league deal in the spring: if you search “Gibbons” on this blog, you’ll first see a mention from December of 2007, when he was mentioned in the Mitchell Report. Though he was doing well in the minors, he didn’t even warrant a second mention until July 8, 2010, when I noted that he would be taking part in the AAA Home Run Derby. (That’s how come he gets “infinity” as a grade. How can I say he bested a preseason expectation when I didn’t even spend one brain cell thinking about him? It’s like dividing by zero. It’s dangerous.)
Of course, then I mentioned him several times over the next month, pointing out that he kept raking as Garret Anderson kept failing, until he was finally recalled when Anderson was DFA’d on August 8. At the time, I tried to discuss what you could expect from him:
Still, simply besting Anderson isn’t a high bar to clear, and the fact that Gibbons can play 1B as well as LF or RF offers some much-needed bench flexibility. As with any Isotope, you have to look at the home/road splits to see how much the Albuquerque environment helped him. It certainly has – his OPS is nearly 200 points higher at home – but he’s also been effective on the road as well, hitting .306/.335/.503.
Hey, if he works out, great. If not, you bring back up Xavier Paul or try someone else. Either way, he’s far more deserving of the opportunity right now than Anderson is, and this is an experiment which should have been tried months ago.
Gibbons bashed a homer in his first start and stayed hot before tailing off at the end, and though he drew just four walks and did a hilarious impression of “defense” in left field, his bat made the decision to keep him on the farm in favor of Anderson look all the worse. Or as I said on September 6…
If you look at #5 on my list of things I wanted to see over the rest of the season, you’ll see “finding out if Jay Gibbons is worth a roster spot for next season.” So what happened? Gibbons got the start on Saturday and collected his third homer of the season. Someone remind me again why it took so long to get rid of the corpse of Anderson and get Gibbons up here – not like many of us hadn’t been calling for just that for months – because I sure as hell can’t come up with a good reason.
Gibbons almost certainly earned himself a spot on the 2011 club, and with good reason; with six double-digit homer seasons under his belt, he’s got the track record, and the defensive versatility is great to have on the bench, though he’s hardly a plus at either. Just keep in mind that, like Rod Barajas, one hot month does not make an All-Star. Gibbons as a power bat off the bench? Love it. Gibbons as your full-time left fielder? Not good. That said, he’ll likely sign for the minimum or something close to it, and that’s great value to add to your reserve corps.
******
Next! Matt Kemp disappoints everyone! And who the hell is Trent Oeltjen?! It’s center field!
MSTI’s 2010 in Review: Third Base
October 26, 2010 at 11:50 am | Posted in Casey Blake, Russ Mitchell | 21 CommentsThird base!
Casey Blake (D)
.248/.320/.407 .727 17hr 3.1 WAR
Hell of year for Casey Blake, starting in spring training when we had to listen to rumors that he might actually be the club’s backup shortstop. That never happened, of course; unfortunately for Blake, what also never happened was his ability to perform at all like his career 2009 year, since he had his worst season since 2005 in nearly every way. Even coming off a few good seasons, when you’re 36, you don’t get the benefit of the doubt as far as having an off-season. You get people wondering if you’re cooked.
Though he had an okay April, Blake slumped badly by mid-May, leading me to point out that he was the only Dodger not riding the team’s hot streak:
Yet there’s one member of the Dodgers who hasn’t been able to enjoy the ride as much as everyone else, and that’s Casey Blake. Blake’s been, on the whole, pretty lousy this season: a .233/.323/.397 line with 3 homers isn’t going to get you very far as a third baseman. His .720 OPS in fact ranks him 20th among MLB 3B, and his .265 True Average tells a similar tale, putting him 22nd. Even his defense, surprisingly good last year (12.0 runs above average per UZR), has slipped below average to -0.9 this year. The standard “small sample size” warnings apply, but it’s hard to ignore that he has six errors in six weeks this year, after ten in six months last year.
Later in that post, I jokingly suggested that his failings were because he’d been clean-shaven to start the year, and he’d need to grow back the beard if he was going to succeed. A few days later we marveled that he was indeed growing it back, and it was fun for the next month: between May 15 – June 15, he hit .300/.371/.500 with four homers.
But it didn’t last. His overall OPS for June was just .692, and his July was completely atrocious, at just .174/.242/.314. In August, he contributed to another Jonathan Broxton implosion by allowing a nearly-certain 9th-inning double play ball go through his legs, and in September I had to ask if he was done:
Looking deeper into the stats helps to shed some light here. Blake’s BABIP of .307 is nearly identical to his career .305 mark, so he’s not been particularly unlucky, and his BB% isn’t far off from his usual line either. But he’s certainly striking out more (26.9% would be a career high, and is 4% more than usual), and you can bet that’s in large part because he’s offering at far more pitches outside the strike zone than he’s ever done before (swinging at 27.5% of such offerings, well above his career mark of 20.9%).
Then there’s the fact that he’s getting killed on fastballs. Last year, Blake was worth 18.7 runs above average against heaters, good for 9th among MLB 3B. This year, he’s dropped down to just 3.5 runs above average against fastballs. So we have an older player, who can’t catch up to fastballs anymore, and is losing his plate discipline and swinging at more balls outside the zone – and he’s getting destroyed by fellow righties (.223/.293/.363). You don’t have to go too far to think that the bat speed is slowing and he’s having trouble adjusting.
Unfortunately, history isn’t on Blake’s side either. There’s only been seventeen seasons since 1961 in which a third baseman 37 or older (since Blake will be 37 most of next year) has managed to even play enough to qualify for the batting title. Looking at that list, most of them are Hall of Famers (Mike Schmidt, Pete Rose, Brooks Robinson, Wade Boggs, Cal Ripken, Jr.), or about to be (Chipper Jones) – and even then there’s quite a few dreadful seasons on that list. Do we really expect that Casey Blake is the one who bucks that trend?
Needless to say, I don’t have high hopes for Blake in 2011. This is exactly what I was afraid of back in December of 2008, when he signed his three-year deal – that while he’d be fine in 2009, he’d be questionable for 2010, and totally undesirable in 2011. (Coincidentally, that’s very similar to how I felt about Ted Lilly‘s three-year deal.)
Still, there’s no chance of moving him, so he’ll be back. All you can really hope for is that the Dodgers, as I argued in my 2011 plan, take advantage of his large lefty/righty split (.895 vs .663 OPS) and make him a lefty-mashing 1B/3B off the bench. That’s what I want to do, and it’s what they should do; but I doubt it’s all that high on their list, unfortunately.
Oh, and since there’s no other 3B remotely on the radar in the system (unless Jerry Sands unexpectedly shows an aptitude for the position in the Arizona Fall League), expect a lot of talk next year about who replaces Blake in 2012 and beyond.
Russ Mitchell (inc.)
.143/.140/.286 .425 1hr -0.4 WAR
Mitchell was recalled on September 6, after rosters had expanded, and at the time I didn’t think much of him:
To be honest, I can’t say I’m a huge fan of Mitchell. He’ll be 26 before next season starts, yet he had a line of just .241/.298/.406 last year, his second season in AA. Overall, his career OBP in the minors was just .321. Somehow that was good enough to get him to AAA, where he took advantage of the ABQ environment to rake: .315/.363/.535, with 23 homers.
That’s not an accident, either; his OPS at home was 1.164, but on the road it was just .834, and it’s not like ABQ is the only park in the PCL that caters to offense, either. Still, Mitchell offers nice versatility – while he’s primarily a 3B, he also saw time at 1B, 2B, LF, & RF this year – and it’s nice to see another homegrown prospect make the bigs, so maybe he’ll make an impression and get into the mix for a utility role next year.
Mitchell got a decent showcase, starting 11 games and receiving 43 PA in September, but he did absolutely nothing to make a mark. Sure, he hit two homers, and that’s nice, but he started out 0-15, managed just six hits, and didn’t walk even once while striking out eight times. Now, he started at 1B, 3B, and LF, and he can supposedly also play 2B and RF, so the versatility is nice, but he also managed to make three errors in his short time up.
Obviously, Mitchell didn’t really make much of a case towards a bench job in 2011, and there’s really no good reason he shouldn’t be in AAA to start the year. Best case scenario, he puts up some more ABQ-fueled numbers and can be overvalued in a trade.
******
Next! We say goodbye to Manny Ramirez! We wish Scott Podsednik never came to town! We try to forget Garret Anderson ever existed! And we welcome back Jay Gibbons from baseball purgatory! It’s left field!
MSTI’s 2010 in Review: Shortstop
October 25, 2010 at 11:58 am | Posted in Chin-Lung Hu, Jamey Carroll, Juan Castro, Rafael Furcal | 35 Comments
Rafael Furcal (B)
.300/.366/.460 .826 8hr 3.4 WAR
I have to be honest, when I first looked back on Furcal’s season, all I could think of at first was, “oh, shocker, he hurt his back again.” And that’s true; he’s proven he simply cannot be counted upon to stay healthy.
However, that’s shortchanging him a bit, because when he was able to stay on the field, he put together one of the finest seasons of his career. Really, you can break his season down into three two-month slices.
In April and May, Furcal started just 24 games, missing most of May with a strained hamstring. His .308/.359/.402 (.761) was quite good even then, yet it hardly compared to his June and July (and two games in August). Furcal played his way onto the All-Star team by destroying opposing pitching with a .320/.391/.540 (.931) line, and all eight of his homers, though he did miss a week while mourning the passing of his father. He was so good, in fact, that in July I ran the numbers and said he was the best shortstop in Los Angeles Dodger history, slathering him with praise:
Last night, Furcal chipped in three more hits, including the go-ahead home run, saving the Dodgers from blowing yet another outstanding Clayton Kershaw start. I mean, choose whatever metrics you want; they’re all ridiculous. He’s got four homers in the last eight games, a stretch in which his OPS is 1.325. Over his last 31 starts (which span more than a month because of the time missed tending to his father) he’s only hitting an absurd .382/.422/.625. Here’s my favorite stat, though: in those 31 starts, he’s gone hitless just 7 times, but he’s had multiple hit games 17 times. Even his defense, which is hard to quantify but especially so over less than half a season, seems to have new energy; I noted on Twitter recently that I think I’ve seen him make more phenomenal plays this year than I have in the previous four years combined.
So it should come as no surprise that all of the leading stats paint him as the most valuable shortstop in baseball. FanGraphs shows him leading MLB SS in WAR, at 3.2 (and no complaining that Troy Tulowitzki has missed time, because with Furcal’s DL stint he’s actually still seven games behind Tulo), while Baseball Prospectus has him destroying the field in MLVr (Marginal Lineup Value rate, which I used instead of VORP because his missed time hurts him there). His position as top dog at his position this year is nearly indisputable.
Of course, it was too good to be true, because his August and September were disastrous, which you could of course say about any number of Dodgers. He played just two games in August before his back sent him to the DL again; when he returned in September he was hardly the same, hitting .237/.310/.329 (.639).
I’ve seen some calls to move him this offseason, but he’s making $12m next year, so that’s just not an option. All you can do is pray that he’s somewhat healthy, but not too healthy; his 2012 $12m club option becomes guaranteed with 600 PA next year.
Jamey Carroll (A)
.291/.379/.339 .718 0hr 2.7 WAR
Carroll’s been proclaimed the unofficial 2010 MVP of the Dodgers by a variety of outlets and experts, and while you can argue that, it says a lot about this year’s edition of the club that a 36-year-old backup infielder who didn’t hit even one homer would even be in the conversation.
That’s not a slight against Carroll, of course, who had what was essentially a career year while getting far more playing time at shortstop in the wake of Furcal’s injury than ever anticipated. When he was signed, I didn’t mind him as a backup infielder, though at the time I wasn’t thrilled with the second guaranteed year. I felt that Felipe Lopez was a better fit (remember, Lopez was coming off of a great 2009), especially when Lopez signed for barely a third of what Carroll got, which made the Carroll deal look so bad that it made its way onto MLBtraderumors’ list of “worst offseason deals”.
Still, that’s more a concern about management than it is about Carroll himself – he far outplayed any expectations we may have had of him. In fact by August I was wondering why Carroll wasn’t hitting higher in the lineup to take advantage of his high OBP:
I’ve said this before, and I’ll keep saying it: there is no rational reason that Ryan Theriot should be hitting higher in the lineup than Jamey Carroll. Carroll gets on base more often, and even hits for a bit more power. I said it before last night’s game, and look what happened: Carroll got on twice, Theriot just once. There’s no question that this offense needs a shake-up; isn’t this an easy and obvious way to do it?
That never really happened, of course, but the unexpected ability of Carroll to get on base and adequately play shortstop (that’s “adequate” in the sense that he caught what was hit to him, despite showing very little range) helped the Dodgers avoid a “2008 Angel Berroa” level disaster at the position. Really, Carroll will be a good barometer of how successful the 2011 Dodgers are. If he’s a nice bench piece, that’s good news. If he’s getting serious playing time again, then things haven’t really gone in the right direction.
Chin-lung Hu (inc.)
.130/.160/.174 .334 0hr -0.2 WAR
Hu made his yearly cameo for the 4th season in a row, but it’s kind of an understatement to say that his career has largely stalled out. At 26, he had just 25 plate appearances in the bigs, less than he had in 2007 or 2008.
Really, it was that 2008 season that seemingly sealed his fate, because coming off a big season in the minors in 2007 (.325/.364/.507) he flopped badly in his big chance to replace the injured Furcal in 2008 (.181/.252/.233 in 121 PA).
Still, even if he was never going to be as good as that 2007 promised he could be, I think he’s still been slightly underrated, in the sense that he at least deserves chances ahead of retreads like Nick Green. There’s never been any question about his glove, and he’d had a pretty decent line of .317/.339/.438 in 223 AAA plate appearances this season, before undergoing surgery on an injured left thumb. He can still be a starter on a second-division club, or a backup on a better one, but since he’s out of options that chance will likely come with another organization next season.
Juan Castro (inc.)
.000/.250/.000 .250 0hr 0.0 WAR
Castro played just one game in his third (and pray to whatever deity you choose that it’s also his final) stint with the Dodgers, so what am I really going to say about him? Really, the highlight of my coverage of Castro this season was while he was still playing with the Phillies, as I was praising Furcal in July. I noted that Furcal’s 2010 was the best season a Dodger shortstop had ever had to that point, and presented a list of the top ten entries. Right after the list, I said…
(Dead last? Juan Castro‘s atrociously amazing .199/.245/.255 campaign in 1998.)
Yeah, that sounds about right. In parts of seven seasons with the Dodgers (1995-99, 2009, 2010), Castro put up a total line of .205/.258/.271. That’s a 43 OPS+. Good lord.
******
Next! Casey Blake turns into a pumpkin! Russ Mitchell tries to make his mark! It’s third base!
We’re All Ranger Fans Now
October 23, 2010 at 10:47 am | Posted in World Series | 37 Comments
I generally don’t have much of a rooting interest other than wanting the Dodgers to win. Though many LA fans despise the Giants, I don’t think that rivalry has really lived up to its reputation in decades, so I wasn’t really biased either way when the NL West race came down to the final days.
However, that’s all well and good when we’re talking about a series in September or even who makes the playoffs, but it’s a completely different animal when the prize is a World Series championship. Watching a rival go all the way after the Dodgers had come so close in each of the previous two years would be just another crushing blow in a season full of them. Remember, the Giants have never won a title for San Francisco, with their last championship coming in 1954 back in New York. Now’s not the time to break that streak.
And the Phillies? Well, before 2008 I was basically indifferent to them, and might have even backed them just because of how awful they were for so many years. But after the way they stood in the way of the Dodgers making it to the World Series in both 2008 and 2009, we can’t possibly cheer for them either.
No, there’s only one option here. Let’s go Rangers.
******
If it is the Giants rather than the Phillies coming out of the NL, that will make for a fun subplot regarding Texas catcher Bengie Molina, who was traded from San Francisco to Texas in July. It’s baseball tradition that anyone who played for a champion receives a ring and a playoff share, even if they didn’t last the season due to being traded or demoted, with a great example being Nomar Garciaparra getting a 2004 Red Sox ring despite being traded to Chicago in July.
Of course, most of those players don’t end up actively trying to prevent their former team from winning in October. In one sense, Molina would be guaranteed of a ring no matter what happens, but if the Giants did end up winning, would they send him a plastic one like you’d find in a box of Cracker Jack?
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Let’s say it is Giants/Rangers. Clearly, that’s MLB’s worst nightmare from a television standpoint, as Yankees/Phillies was the marquee matchup many hoped for. Giants/Rangers would probably be one of the lowest-rated World Series matchups of all time, and you’ll hear about that a lot. However, it would also be a huge win for those concerned about parity in the game, as opposed to a Yankees/Phillies showdown. You just can’t please everyone, can you?
******
One of my readers is looking to share a portion of his season tickets at face value for next year due to rising prices.
My family has been season ticket holders for as long as I can remember. We want to sell a portion of the season to people for face value.
We have tickets in Aisle 1 row P the 4 on the aisle 9, 10, 11 and 12.
Interested? Contact him via email.
Trey Hillman May Be Your New Bench Coach (Updated)
October 20, 2010 at 9:14 pm | Posted in Ted Lilly, Trey Hillman | 21 Comments
Amidst all of the rumors about the Dodger coaching staff, Ken Gurnick throws a brand-new name into the mix for bench coach, ex-Royals manager Trey Hillman:
Former Kansas City Royals manager Trey Hillman has emerged as the front-runner to be bench coach on Dodgers rookie manager Don Mattingly’s staff, according to baseball sources.
The 47-year-old Hillman, who managed the Royals from 2008 until he was replaced by Ned Yost on May 13, 2010, was seen with Dodgers general manager Ned Colletti and assistant general manager Kim Ng watching an Arizona Fall League game Wednesday.
Hillman’s tenure as KC manager was more or less a disaster, as he lost 87 games in 2008, 97 games in 2009, and was on pace to lose over 100 this year before being fired after 35 games. Of course, the KC rosters have hardly been overflowing with talent, so it’s hard to make that judgement alone. As Gurnick notes, Hillman managed in the Yankee minor league system for 12 years, providing a link to Mattingly, and was also a well-regarded manager in Japan prior to being hired in Kansas City.
I won’t pretend I watched anywhere near enough KC games to have an idea what kind of manager Hillman was, though he’d certainly fulfill the “managerial experience” the Dodgers are looking for with his time in the minors, majors, and Japan. But what I do know is that he was very highly thought of when he came to the Royals, and much of that luster was gone by the time he left. Let’s let quotes tell the story:
At the time of his hire in KC…
Royals Review, 10/22/07:
In the days since, we’ve had a seal of approval column from JoePo (not surprising) and lots of nice quotes from both unnamed insiders and blogosphere netizens thrown the Royals’ way. Here at Royals Review, the Hillman-is-Hired post swelled to 100+ comments, the vast majority of which were ranging from positive to giddy.
Joe Posnanski, 10/30/07:
Sunday night in Hillman’s Hangout, a whole group of Japanese people ate Texas food and watched the game on television. Waitresses wearing T-shirts with Hillman’s face on them scurried about. There wasn’t much for a Fighters fan to cheer, but when Hillman appeared on television, there was a smattering of applause. A woman at the next table asked me where I was from.
“Kansas City,” I said.
“Oh,” she said. “I am Kansas City Royals fan.”
“Really?” I asked. “Since when?” She smiled and pointed at a photograph of Hillman and said, “Since him.”
At the time of his firing in KC…
Rany on the Royals, 5/9/10:
Trey Hillman has crossed the point of no return in Kansas City.
Yesterday’s game was an exhibition of managerial malpractice almost unparalleled in the history of the franchise. Hillman could hardly have damaged the Royals’ chances to win the game more if he had tried. It is exceedingly important that every Royals fan understand the extent to which Hillman hurt both his team’s chances of winning last night, and his most well-paid pitcher’s chances of earning his generous contract for well into the future.
Gil Meche, who started complaining of a tired arm after throwing 132 pitches in a complete game last June, and who has been consistently awful since throwing 121 pitches with a dead arm last July, and who wasn’t pitching well so much as pitching lucky on this night, was allowed to throw 128 pitches – the longest outing by any major league pitcher this season – on Saturday night. He was left in to complete the 8th inning, despite a fresh bullpen, and despite the fact that he allowed the first three batters to reach base safely.
Joe Posnanski, 5/13/10:
None of the reasons why the Royals hired Hillman in the first place quite worked out. He was known for his sense of the game, but his Royals consistently played clueless baseball. He was known for his deep belief in the fundamentals — “there are no little things,” was one of his mottos — but the Royals were a terrible defensive team and a terrible baserunning team on his watch. He was known as a man who related well with players and the community, but his players often didn’t seem to get him, and his appearances in public were often just bizarre.
Of course, every manager is loved when he’s hired, and hated when he’s fired, right? All in all, I’m okay with this move if it’s true. It may not have worked out for Hillman in Kansas City, but he’s still young (47), which I like, and you’d hope that he learned a lot from his trial in KC. That, plus the experience he’s gained from his years in the minors, Japan, and the bigs… well, look, I don’t think any of us would have wanted him as the manager, but as bench coach? Yeah, I can see that working out.
Update: Unrelated but worth noting, the details of Ted Lilly‘s deal have come out. Per TrueBlueLA, it’s heavily backloaded $7.5m in 2011, $12m in 2012, $13.5m in 2013. That’s great for 2011, but that could be an enormous nightmare come 2013.
Update 2: The hits keep on coming! Keith Law checks in with some news…
Scouting director Tim Hallgren is leaving the Dodgers to join the Tigers in pro scouting. Logan White will take over Tim’s duties.
Ah, better hope even more than before that White doesn’t get that Mets GM gig, right?
MSTI’s 2010 in Review: Second Base
October 20, 2010 at 1:37 pm | Posted in Blake DeWitt, Nick Green, Ronnie Belliard, Ryan Theriot | 25 Comments
Blake DeWitt (C)
.270/.352/.371 .723 1hr 1.1 WAR
I know a lot of people focused on the fact that DeWitt hit just one homer as a Dodger, and I won’t act as though that’s acceptable. But note that his OPS was .723, and then realize that James Loney and Casey Blake, playing the more traditional power positions of 1B and 3B, ended up at .723 and .727, respectively. If DeWitt wasn’t the answer, nor was he high on the list of problems.
After winning the second base job with a strong camp, DeWitt had just two extra-base hits (both doubles) in April, though he made up for it with an excellent .382 OBP. Despite ridiculous rumors that he’d be sent down in May, he managed to increase his OPS each month of the season he was with LA, from .681 in April to .745 in July.
In June, I noted that I was impressed with his gradual progression:
Just as I was about to write a post saying that while I’m pleased with Blake DeWitt‘s play this year, sooner or later he’s going to have to show some power, he crushes a three-run shot deep into the night, setting in motion a much-needed offensive showing by the Dodgers in a 12-4 win. DeWitt’s got an .801 OPS since May 1, along with an improving glove, but he hadn’t been able to leave the yard until last night.
Though the various fielding metrics ranked him from average to slightly below, it was clear that all the hard work he’d put into the position switch was paying off, because the DeWitt we saw in July was far ahead of the DeWitt we saw in April.
Now, let’s be clear. He’s likely never going to be an All-Star, and I think his ceiling is as a solid everyday player with a good OBP and a bit of pop. Still, there’s value in that, especially considering he was just 24, and so you can imagine why I was so disappointed when he was dealt to Chicago in the Ted Lilly deal for the useless Ryan Theriot, who you’ll be reading more about in a second:
I can’t express my disappointment in this enough, and I don’t even like DeWitt all that much. I think he’s done a decent job, but with absolutely zero power and defense that’s average at best, he’s not really proving himself to be a piece you build around. I just want to repeat that; the Dodgers are giving up someone I’m not an enormous fan of, and this is still a big mistake.
I suppose that’s a topic we’ll get into more in the Ned Colletti review, though. As for DeWitt, between his miraculous initial success as the emergency Opening Day 3B in 2008, resurrection as the playoff second baseman later that year, driver of the LA-to-ABQ express in 2009, and fulltime second baseman in 2010, DeWitt built quite the career into his relatively short time in LA. He will be missed.
Ryan Theriot (F)
.242/.323/.283 .606 1hr -0.1 WAR
In what you’ll soon see is a recurring theme in these reviews, I’m trying not to blame the player for the misguided decisions of others. It’s not Ryan Theriot‘s fault that he was part of the regrettable Blake DeWitt/Ted Lilly deal, and it’s not his fault that Joe Torre insisted on hitting him 2nd all the time. And I’ll even admit that (probably in large part due to low expectations) I was pleasantly surprised with his defense at second base.
But it is Theriot’s fault that he made a lousy impression by getting on base just three times in his first eighteen plate appearances as a Dodger, and it’s definitely his fault that he started September on a 2-29 skid on his way to hitting .159/.260/.159 for the month. It is fault that his Dodger OPS was about 120 points less than even DeWitt’s modest mark, and it certainly doesn’t help that his last extra base hit of the season was a double on August 26th.
Really, I already went into detail about how awful Theriot is when I noted him in our arbitration decisions series, so let’s revisit that quickly:
Where should I start? Oh, I don’t know. How about with the fact that there’s 157 players who have accumulated at least 475 plate appearances in 2010, and Ryan Theriot is the 3rd-worst in baseball in OPS+? Beating out Alcides Escobar and Cesar Izturis is hardly an achievement:
Rk Player OPS+ PA Year Tm R H 2B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS 1 Miguel Cabrera 180 648 2010 DET 111 180 45 38 126 89 95 .328 .420 .622 1.042 153 Jason Kendall 70 490 2010 KCR 39 111 18 0 37 37 45 .256 .318 .297 .615 154 Jose Lopez 69 618 2010 SEA 48 141 28 10 58 22 65 .239 .269 .337 .606 155 Ryan Theriot 69 618 2010 TOT 68 153 15 2 29 38 73 .270 .319 .314 .633 156 Alcides Escobar 66 530 2010 MIL 56 115 14 4 40 33 66 .236 .287 .326 .612 157 Cesar Izturis 53 500 2010 BAL 42 109 13 1 28 24 53 .236 .282 .275 .557 “But,” you say, “OPS doesn’t measure defense, or position, or baserunning. That’s an unfair comparison.” Okay, then. Let’s go with WAR, and compare against only fellow second basemen. How does that turn out for Mr. TOOTBLAN? Well, he’s only the worst second baseman in baseball in 2010 (min. 300 PA):
Rk Player WAR/pos PA Tm R H 2B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS 1 Robinson Cano 5.5 672 NYY 100 193 39 28 105 55 76 .318 .378 .530 .908 25 Skip Schumaker 0.2 513 STL 64 122 18 5 41 43 63 .265 .331 .341 .671 Rk Player WAR/pos PA Tm R H 2B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS 26 Cristian Guzman 0.0 396 TOT 48 97 12 2 26 20 63 .266 .311 .337 .648 27 Gordon Beckham -0.3 498 CHW 58 112 25 9 49 37 92 .252 .317 .378 .695 28 Ryan Theriot -0.9 618 TOT 68 153 15 2 29 38 73 .270 .319 .314 .633
Man. I’m starting to wonder if the F grade was a bit generous. Now as I said, his defense was surprisingly nice, as should probably be expected from a former shortstop. But he’s going to be make something like $3.5m in arbitration this winter, perhaps more. He’s an offensive black hole. You can’t find good defense and comparable offense for about $3m less than that? Of course you can.
But make no mistake, he’ll be back. Of that, I have no doubt. And he’ll be hitting 2nd, because that’s what gritty 2nd basemen do.
Ronnie Belliard (Putting the F in DFA)
.216/.295/.327 .622 2hr -0.4 WAR
I suppose it was overshadowed by Garret Anderson‘s assault on the record books in all the wrong ways and the overall ineptitude of the offense, but I always thought that Belliard’s horrendous year flew under the radar a bit more than it should have. Sure, I suppose he earned some small benefit of the doubt with his performance in 2009 after coming over from Washington, but when he’s not hitting, he’s not valuable, since he’s a lousy fielder.
To be honest, I wasn’t really sure why he was re-signed in the first place, and yes, I’m regretting bagging on Jamey Carroll‘s shortstop skills right now:
Except… isn’t this exactly what Jamey Carroll was for? You know, a mediocre veteran who can play some 2nd and 3rd as needed? Because Belliard can’t play shortstop any more than Carroll can, and it was that “lack of a shortstop” issue that led to Nick Green getting a spring training invite.
So if this isn’t to fill that backup shortstop hole (since Belliard can’t do it) and it isn’t to be the 2B/3B backup bat off the bench (since that’s ostensibly what Carroll’s here for), what the hell is Belliard’s role? Please don’t tell me he’s the Opening Day 2B, not until Blake DeWitt is given a chance to fail, and not with guys like Felipe Lopez and Orlando Cabrera still out there with rapidly falling contract demands.
Throughout the spring, the main intrigue with Belliard was whether he’d manage to make it under the magic number of 209 pounds, which he was contractually obligated to in order to see his contract become guaranteed:
Part of me wonders: do we even want him to? Blake DeWitt seems all but certain to win the second base job. Belliard’s presence (combined with Jamey Carroll) was mostly to have two options in case DeWitt flopped – but if he doesn’t, Belliard could be a little redundant.
To his credit, Belliard got off to a nice start, with an .849 OPS at the end of April. But it was all downhill from there, hitting just .194/.279/.274 until he was cut in August. When he was finally let go, I wondered why we’d never focused on it as much as we should have, and then tried to slip in a bit of a conspiracy theory:
Belliard’s incompetence is something I touched upon a few times this year, but probably never as much as it really deserved. I mean, since the beginning of July he was hitting just .175/.232/.222, with three extra base hits, and offering a lot of negative value on defense. His spot could have been put to better use months ago, and it wasn’t.
The timing of it makes me wonder. Just how much of Belliard’s continued employment was an attempt to make Manny Ramirez happy, since it’s well known that the two were good buddies? Manny’s been gone for barely a week, and now Belliard is out the door, despite no desperate roster need to do so, and no new on-field evidence to demand it (by that I mean, he doesn’t suck any more now than he already has all season).
I always figured that Belliard’s friendship with Manny was just a nice additional perk from a mostly useless backup infielder. Perhaps it was his only use to the club at all.
Ah, well. So long, Ronnie. We’ll always have the awkward way in which Orlando Hudson was minimized though, won’t we? Good times.
Nick Green (inc.)
.125/.222/.125 .347 0hr 0.0 WAR
I wanted to make a joke saying “Nick Green was a member of the 2010 Los Angeles Dodgers” and nothing more, because he got just nine unimportant plate appearances and I’d sort of forgotten he ever existed. But, this is probably a good time to look at how badly the team wanted to both acquire and keep him for some reason which I never did understand.
Remember, this is how I spoke of him when we first heard rumors:
If you don’t know much about Green, that’s because you shouldn’t. This is a guy who is 31 and has played for five teams in parts of five seasons, almost entirely as a backup. In 2009, he was pressed into service as Boston’s starting shortstop for nearly half the season thanks to a multitude of injuries, and responded with a pretty bad .236/.303/.366 line. That’s not even a case of a guy being exposed due to too much playing time; that mirrors exactly his career line of .239/.307/.352. Even in over 3000 PA appearances in the minors, his OBP is just .324. “Getting on base” is clearly not Nick Green’s strength, no matter where he plays.
“But hey,” you might say. “He’s a shortstop, so if he really can’t hit, he must be a whiz with the glove, right?” You’d say that, and you’d be wrong. For his entire career, he’s a whopping 0.6 fielding runs above average. That’s not horrible, but nor is it an asset.
So please, enlighten me. When you’re trying to come up with backup infielders, paying Nick Green more than you’d have to pay Chin-lung Hu to be 5 years older, a far inferior fielder, and a likely inferior batter (Hu at least has a .342 OBP in the minors, and at his age still has time to improve) makes sense in what way exactly?
Of course, when he signed the next month, I had this to add:
But you know what makes it even better? That’s three paragraphs about how Nick Green is a lousy ballplayer and a bad idea, and that was before I heard that he had back surgery this offseason. Back surgery, which he is behind schedule in recovering from.
Green didn’t make the roster, but he did report to ABQ until being called up when Rafael Furcal was injured, which I was thrilled about:
So what’s changed since then? The correct answer is “well, it’s only a month into the season, so unless Green’s already put up 20 homers while Hu broke his leg, that’s not nearly enough time to be more important than the last several years of established history”. But we all know it doesn’t work like that, because if it did we wouldn’t have seen any Ortizii on this squad.
In spring training – and yes, I know that these stats don’t mean much, but don’t pretend they don’t often decide jobs – Hu had a line of .281/.324/.281. Obviously there’s no power there, so it’s not stellar… but it’s also streets ahead of Green’s .139/.324/.167. After camp broke, neither one has been hitting very well in the first month at ABQ - Hu at .227/.261/.242, and Green at .219/.242/.438.
Of course Green got just one hit, and was eventually DFA’d when Scott Elbert came up. Let’s be honest; he was totally irrelevant, and I probably spent more time digging up those quotes than he did on the active roster. Don’t you love these infuriatingly bad veteran signings?
******
Next! Rafael Furcal just can’t stay healthy! Jamey Carroll was actually pretty rad! Chin-lung Hu makes his yearly cameo! And wait, that’s Juan Castro? It’s shortstop!
Ted Lilly Just Made 33 Million Dollars
October 19, 2010 at 8:04 pm | Posted in Ted Lilly | 42 Comments
Earlier this evening, the Dodgers put out a press release confirming the signing of Ted Lilly, though no dollars were announced. Moments ago, Jon Heyman broke the financials in a decidedly low-key tweet – $33m over three years.
I guarantee that I’m going to be in the minority here, but I’m not thrilled with this. The casual fan is going to see this as some sort of sign that Frank McCourt is willing to spend, but there’s a big difference between spending and spending wisely, and spending big on a 35-year-old pitcher entering his decline years is not wise. Isn’t this how we ended up being stuck with Casey Blake next year?
I voiced my concerns about Lilly’s future a few weeks ago:
Lilly’s fastball, never all that noteworthy in the first place, has declined in each of the last five seasons, down over 3 MPH from 2006. He’s allowing more flyballs than he’s ever had before (hence the homers), and his K/9 has decreased for the second year in a row. The lessened velocity may not be as important for a so-called “crafty lefty” as it might be for someone who lives and dies on heat, but it’s not a good trend.
As Jon Weisman noted at Dodger Thoughts, the history of giving long-term deals to older players (he mentions Randy Wolf, Derek Lowe, and Casey Blake, though you could of course go on for hours), especially pitchers, rarely ends well. It’s not hard to think that Lilly’s going to fall squarely into that same camp.
Now, I do think Lilly can be an effective pitcher in 2011. I’m less sure about 2012, and all bets are off about 2013, when he’ll be 37 years old.
If Lilly’s coming back to the Dodgers, I want it be on a one-year deal, two at the most. Offering arbitration is the only way to make that happen, and it carries with it the benefit of draft picks should he decline. Your other choice is to not offer, and then either see him leave for nothing, or even worse, be the team that foolishly gives him a three- or four-year deal.
So sure, I’m happy to see him back in 2011, but we can’t be short-sighted about this. Remember, Lilly just finished a 4-year, $40m contract, which is an average annual value of $10m/year. Somehow, despite being 4 years older, less than a year past shoulder surgery, and on the decline, the Dodgers saw fit to give him a deal which increases that value?
I’m not arguing that he wouldn’t have found a contract like that on the market, because he would have. I would have just preferred it be some other team to make a foolish investment. Spending money does not equal spending wisely, because while Lilly’s a good pitcher, he’s hardly a difference-maker, yet he’s being paid like one. Though I’m glad he’s back for 2011, I really think we’re going to regret this deal in 2012 and 2013 – which is basically exactly what I said about Blake’s deal after 2008.
Besides, do we really think the club has another big-money contract in them? If not, then Lilly’s the grand prize of the offseason, and that means you added a #3 starter while the offense remains the same.
Update: Dylan Hernandez clarifies that Lilly’s deal will not have any deferred money, and has a full no-trade clause for the first two years.
MSTI’s 2010 in Review: First Base
October 19, 2010 at 11:43 am | Posted in James Loney, John Lindsey | 16 CommentsCatcher’s in the books; let’s move on to first base. Fair warning, this gets way more negative than I’d intended. Sorry, James.
James Loney (D-)
.267/.329/.395 .723 10hr 1.1 WAR
Back in March, I made a bold proclamation. I said that James Loney was in line for a huge step forward in 2010, and I said that for three reasons. #1, he was just 25 and had already established himself as a league-average hitter, if still in the lower half of first basemen. #2, his improved plate control in 2009 (70/68 K/BB) was outstanding and is often the harbinger of improved production. And #3, he’d ended 2009 on a great hot streak, putting up an OPS of .846 from August 25 on. I didn’t think he was going to be the next Albert Pujols or anything, but all the signs were there for the great leap forward we’d all been waiting for. What could go wrong?
As we all know, Loney repaid that faith with the worst year of his career. Of course he did.
Really, Loney regressed in just about every way. His strikeout rate of 16.2% was the highest of his career, and his walk rate decreased nearly 3% from last year, helping his OBP plummet nearly 30 points from 2009. Even his homers were the lowest in his four full seasons, and considering he was already dangerously low in the power department, that’s a troubling sign.
All kidding aside, however, the power bar is set so high at 1B that Loney’s lack of power is getting to historically-low levels for the position. Over the last 30 years (1980-2010), there have been 205 seasons in which a 1B got as many PA as Loney (648), with at least 75% of those appearances coming while the player was a first baseman. Only 14 times out of 205 did the player have 10 or fewer homers:
| Rk | Player | HR | PA | Year | Age | Tm | G | AB | H | 2B | RBI | BB | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daric Barton | 10 | 686 | 2010 | 24 | OAK | 159 | 556 | 152 | 33 | 57 | 110 | .273 | .393 | .405 | .798 |
| 2 | James Loney | 10 | 648 | 2010 | 26 | LAD | 161 | 588 | 157 | 41 | 88 | 52 | .267 | .329 | .395 | .723 |
| 3 | Keith Hernandez | 10 | 682 | 1985 | 31 | NYM | 158 | 593 | 183 | 34 | 91 | 77 | .309 | .384 | .430 | .814 |
| 4 | Mark Grace | 9 | 689 | 1992 | 28 | CHC | 158 | 603 | 185 | 37 | 79 | 72 | .307 | .380 | .430 | .809 |
| 5 | Mark Grace | 9 | 662 | 1990 | 26 | CHC | 157 | 589 | 182 | 32 | 82 | 59 | .309 | .372 | .413 | .785 |
| 6 | Willie Upshaw | 9 | 661 | 1986 | 29 | TOR | 155 | 573 | 144 | 28 | 60 | 78 | .251 | .341 | .368 | .709 |
| 7 | Mark Grace | 8 | 703 | 1991 | 27 | CHC | 160 | 619 | 169 | 28 | 58 | 70 | .273 | .346 | .373 | .719 |
| 8 | Steve Garvey | 8 | 653 | 1984 | 35 | SDP | 161 | 617 | 175 | 27 | 86 | 24 | .284 | .307 | .373 | .680 |
| 9 | Al Oliver | 8 | 664 | 1983 | 36 | MON | 157 | 614 | 184 | 38 | 84 | 44 | .300 | .347 | .410 | .757 |
| 10 | Darin Erstad | 7 | 663 | 2005 | 31 | LAA | 153 | 609 | 166 | 33 | 66 | 47 | .273 | .325 | .371 | .696 |
| 11 | Keith Hernandez | 7 | 694 | 1982 | 28 | STL | 160 | 579 | 173 | 33 | 94 | 100 | .299 | .397 | .413 | .810 |
| 12 | Mike Hargrove | 4 | 705 | 1982 | 32 | CLE | 160 | 591 | 160 | 26 | 65 | 101 | .271 | .377 | .338 | .715 |
| 13 | Pete Rose | 3 | 718 | 1982 | 41 | PHI | 162 | 634 | 172 | 25 | 54 | 66 | .271 | .345 | .338 | .683 |
| 14 | Pete Rose | 1 | 735 | 1980 | 39 | PHI | 162 | 655 | 185 | 42 | 64 | 66 | .282 | .352 | .354 | .706 |
Looking at that list, you can see that many of the other power-starved 1B offered value in other ways. Barton, Hernandez, Grace, and Hargrove all had OBP north of .372. Garvey’s 1984 power outage was an aberration after ten years in a row of double-digit homers (and two more in 1985 and 1986); it was similar for Oliver, who’d had 13 years of 10+ homers and had hit 22 the year before. Pete Rose had an acceptable OBP and offered the value of “being Pete Rose“, and almost all of the names I’ve mentioned were outstanding glovesmen.
I’m trying not to get too doom-and-gloom, but the point here is that while many others on this list offered value either in that season or in the several seasons prior to somewhat absolve their powerless sins, Loney’s OBP was the third-worst of this group, ahead of only Garvey’s off-year and the Angels’ inexplicable obsession with Darin Erstad. It’s not exactly a list you want to be at the head of.
Unfortunately for Loney, this offseason represents the first real threat to his job. In the previous two years, you could look at the expected power from the Manny/Kemp/Ethier outfield, along with decent production from Casey Blake, and rationalize subpar output at 1B in hopes of seeing that potential pay off. You could say, “he could break out at any moment, and he’s barely making more than the minimum.”
But now? Now that Loney’s seemingly gone backwards, now that the the offense as a whole failed miserably this year, and now that he’s likely to get $4-$5m in arbitration? Now that he hit .211/.285/.331 in 73 games after the All-Star Break? Now that the only 1B he outproduced (by OPS+, min. 400 PA) were the untested Matt LaPorta, the broken-down Todd Helton, and the execrable Casey Kotchman, putting him 21st of 24th this year?
He’s 21st in WAR among 1B with more than 400 PA as well, which is the lowest 1/3 for the position, and again, while that may be fine when he’s making $800k, it’s not nearly as good when he’s making $4-5m. This is a position that features Pujols. Prince Fielder. Ryan Howard. Joey Votto. Miguel Cabrera. Adrian Gonzalez. Mark Teixeira. Kevin Youkilis. Adam Dunn. Paul Konerko. With so many other question marks on the offense and on the payroll, how can the Dodgers stand pat with one of the lesser lights in baseball at the position?
I like James Loney, and I think he’ll figure it out someday. I’m just no longer convinced it’s going to happen in Dodger blue, and his career mark of .854 OPS on the road against just .711 at Dodger Stadium bears that out. He won’t get non-tendered, nor should he; but I’d absolutely put him at the top of my “to-trade” list.
John Lindsey (inc.)
.083/.154/.083 0hr -0.2 WAR
In the catcher review, I mentioned that Rod Barajas joining his hometown team and getting off to a hot start set off a slew of feel-good stories. Take that and multiply it by about a billion for Lindsey, who practically had Ramona Shelburne as his personal biographer for a few weeks there.
Let’s not forget, though, that what really made this story completely unbelievable was not that Lindsey finally got the call after 16 years in the minors, but the ridiculousness that happened when he actually arrived. Like when he tried to get his first at-bat, and, well, you all remember…
Who’d have thought that after 16 years in the minors, three inches from the plate still wouldn’t be close enough?
I wouldn’t have believed it if I didn’t see it myself. After 16 seasons in the minors, John Lindsey was finally going to get his shot. He heard his name over the PA, strode to the plate to pinch-hit with men on and one out… and after a Padres pitching change, Joe Torre did the unthinkable and called him back to the dugout, so Andre Ethier could hit into the most predictable double play in the world.
He finally got his chance, but barely, because nearly two weeks later it was…
In the three weeks or so since being everyone’s feel-good story, John Lindsey has started just one game, and even then he made it only to the 7th inning before being pulled. He’s had just nine opportunities to hit. Meanwhile, Russ Mitchell started out 0-15 and has just 2 hits in 24 plate appearances (both homers, granted) and has received six starts, and even Trent Oeltjen has managed to pick up two starts despite a crowded outfield. Yet Lindsey’s barely gotten a chance.
Five days later, Lindsey took a pitch off his hand, breaking it and ending his season. He’d managed one hit in his 13 times up. Lindsey promises he’ll be back next season, though of course the Dodgers have no obligations towards him. Crushing lefties as he does, you could think of worse platoon partners for Loney, though I’m afraid to say I think we just might have seen the last of Mr. Lindsey. Of course, we should all know better than to count him out at this point.
******
Next! Ryan Theriot‘s unbelievable uselessness! Farewell, Blake DeWitt! Ronnie Belliard gets fired! And holy crap, Nick Green? It’s second base!
How Many McCourt Sins?
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