MSTI’s 2010 in Review: Catcher
October 18, 2010 at 11:07 am | Posted in A.J. Ellis, Brad Ausmus, Rod Barajas, Russell Martin | 7 CommentsGood lord, is this really the 4th time I’ve done end-of-season reviews already? It’s terrifying to think how much time I’ve spent writing this thing over the last three-plus years, and here we are again, needing to wrap a bow on the season by reviewing each player. Following in the footsteps of 2007, 2008, and 2009, each player gets a mention, meaning I’ll be deeply regretting that around the time I have to try to come up with something to say about Nick Green or Jack Taschner.
As usual, the letter grades here are completely arbitrary, and based only on what was a reasonable expectation of the player before the season began, not as a comparison to anyone else. That means that even though Carlos Monasterios is probably going to get an A as a Rule 5 pick who made it through the season without embarrassing himself, it certainly doesn’t mean I think he’s the best pitcher on the staff. Less than 10 IP or 50 plate appearances gets you an “incomplete”.
Special thanks should be noted here for M.Brown of the wonderful Left Field Pavilion, who lent me a hand with the baseball card templates. I’m also using the baseball-reference flavor of WAR, rather than FanGraphs, for no particular reason other than that I had to pick one.
Russell Martin (D-)
.248/.337/.332 .679 5hr 1.9 WAR
Since I happened to have the previous three years of reviews open for the links above, I figured I’d see just how far Martin has fallen. In 2007, it was “Amotherf***ingplus”. In 2008, it was C-, and last year it was an F. Ugh.
The fact that I’m bumping Martin back up from an F to a D- this year isn’t really an indication that he improved in 2010, unfortunately. It’s just that after two years of watching him decline, expectations for him had dropped far enough that basically repeating his mediocre 2009 wasn’t as disappointing as it was a year ago.
I’m not kidding when I say that his 2010 was more or less a repeat of his 2009, as his OPS (.680/.679), wOBA (.307/.306), and oWAR (1.4/1.5) were nearly identical over the two years. There a small positive in that both the numbers and the smell test indicated that his defense improved from 2009 to 2010, which is nice, but it was overshadowed by the continued lousy offense, the groin injury which cost him most of the spring, and the broken hip which cost him the last two months.
Despite all that, you’ll notice that his 1.9 WAR isn’t awful, and that’s directly due to the sorry state of catching in the big leagues right now; it actually put him 15th in MLB among C, which is squarely middle-of-the-road. However disappointed you were in Martin this year, half the league had to put up with even less production from behind the plate, particularly those who foolishly employed Bengie Molina, Jason Kendall, and Ronny Paulino.
If Martin weren’t coming off such a serious injury, you might be able to get past the dreadful lack of power (208th of 225 in SLG, ahead of Pierres, Figginses, Theriots, and Izturises) and accept average-ish catcher production. If he wasn’t going to make over $6m in arbitration this winter, you might be able to rationalize the risk of his rehab.
But the injury, plus the cost, plus the uncertain production, on a team with a tight payroll and subpar offense? Sorry, Russell. Smells like a non-tender to me.
A.J. Ellis (B)
.278/.363/.324 .687 0hr 0.6 WAR
I’ll be honest and say that I still have absolutely no idea what to make of A.J. Ellis. He started off the spring looking to be ABQ’s starter once again, until Martin hurt his groin and was expected to miss the first few weeks of the season. Ellis was then preparing to start the year as the Dodgers’ main backstop. In March, I put down some thoughts on how that would go:
Now, I like a guy who can take a walk, and for his career Ellis has shown that ability, walking 273 times against just 248 strikeouts. Here’s the problem he’s going to run into in the bigs, though: he has no power. Zero. Juan Pierre levels. Ellis has just 17 homers to his name over 7 years, which would be bad enough, except that he played the last two seasons in the hitter’s havens of Las Vegas and Albuquerque. ABQ turned Hector Luna into a .610 slugger last year, when he’d never been over .417 before, and it allowed Dee Brown to hit 19 HR, a number he hadn’t approached in nearly ten years. Ellis somehow didn’t hit a single homer down there last year, which seems absolutely impossible from a man who got 360 total plate appearances.
You might be saying, “well, he’s an emergency fill-in, we’re not looking for him to hit cleanup.” I’d agree with that. It’s just that it’s all well and good that Ellis can lay off the pitches of AAA retreads who are terrified of serving up a fat pitch at high altitude to rack up those OBP numbers. But what’s going to happen in the bigs? If he can’t hit a ball out of Albuquerque, pitchers at the big-league level are going to have nothing to fear from him. That means he’s going to be seeing a lot of strikes, and he’s shown no reason to think that he can do a lot of damage to those pitches in the zone.
Martin ended up making it back in time for Opening Day, and while Ellis ended up starting the year in the minors, that only lasted for about a week until he came up to replace the injured Brad Ausmus as Martin’s backup. By the time Ausmus returned in July, Ellis had done basically exactly what you’d expect: .208/.286/.224, with just one extra-base hit, a double. Of course, as I noted several times throughout the year, it’s hard to fault him too much because Joe Torre refused to ever play him, despite Martin hardly earning the right to play 110% of the time. Ellis got just four starts in April, and two in May. How are you supposed to get anything going with such inconsistent time like that?
When Ausmus returned, Ellis was sent back down once again, only to return two weeks later with Martin was injured. His August was much the same, going .217/.217/.261, before being sent back down yet again when Rod Barajas was acquired. But in his last game before being shipped out, on August 22, Ellis went 3-3 in a loss against the Reds. It was just his second multihit game of the year, but it was hardly his last.
When rosters expanded in September, Ellis came back up and immediately became the hottest Dodger hitter among a collection of ice-cold contemporaries, hitting .417/.533/.500 in 15 September games (12 starts). Most encouragingly, his trademark plate control returned, walking eight times against five walks.
This is why I have no idea what to make of him. Was this just a well-timed hot streak? A case of a guy merely needing some sustained playing time? It’s hard to think that a man with zero power (and clearly without the speed that sustains other punchless hitters, like Juan Pierre) can possibly be successful, though again the bar for catchers is set exceedingly low.
Ellis may have made a case to stick on next year’s roster with his hot September, but he does have (I believe) one more option remaining. You can never have too much catching depth, so having him as the #3 option down in AAA waiting for an opportunity wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. He has the most to gain or lose from a Martin tender or non-tender.
Brad Ausmus (D)
.222/.310/.254 .564 0hr -0.2 WAR
Well, this is easy enough. I wasn’t really enthused when Ausmus signed again for 2010, though I was resigned to it happening and didn’t think it was really worth getting all that upset over. Of course, he lasted all of one April game before heading to the DL to undergo back surgery.
To his credit, Ausmus took an injury that was supposed to keep him out for nearly the entire season and made it back to the bigs by July, though I wasn’t entirely thrilled by the idea of adding yet another lousy offensive catcher to the Dodger collection:
I have all the respect in the world for Ausmus, who’s known as a solid teammate and a future managerial candidate, but is that really going to be a good thing for the Dodgers? Ausmus (career .670 OPS) was obviously never much of an offensive force even in his prime, so you can imagine what he’s going to be like at 41 and coming off major back surgery.
That’s about what happened. Ausmus was predictably terrible (.551 OPS after returning), and actually admitted at the end of the year that he didn’t feel like he could play in the bigs anymore, a feeling he’d had in spring training before the injury.
Ausmus rides into the sunset with a solid career behind him, and a bright future ahead of him should he choose to pursue coaching or managing. I’d love to see him in a Dodger uniform again one day on the coaching staff, but I can’t act as though I’m not pretty happy that he won’t be on the active roster next year.
Rod Barajas (A)
.297/.361/.578 .939 5hr 0.9 WAR
Barajas is the first example of “letter grades are based upon what we thought the guy would do when the season started”, or in his case, upon his acquisition. As you might remember, I wasn’t exactly a big fan when he was claimed off waivers in August, though I did think he was a slight upgrade…
…and that should tell you a lot, because Rod Barajas is horrendous. He’ll be 35 in two weeks, and his laughably bad .263 OBP this year is actually not that far off his amazingly poor .284 career mark. He just missed a month with an oblique strain, and he’s hitting .163/.223/.221 since the end of May.
He’s also your new Dodger starting catcher, since they claimed him off waivers from the Mets today. That should tell you something as well; even though he’s got less than half of his paltry $500k salary coming to him, the Mets didn’t even work out a deal with the Dodgers. They just said, “fine. Take him.”
Of course, Barajas made a phenomenal impression as a Dodger, hitting three homers in his first five games. That includes one in his first home game as a Dodger, setting off a thousand human-interest stories delving into how Barajas was a lifelong Dodger fan and had always wanted to play for his hometown team.
This is all well and good – even I’m not going to be against a nice personal story, especially in the dying days of a lost season – and his hot bat was appreciated, coming as it did after two years of little from Martin and weeks of nothing from Ausmus. The problem here is that I can already see that casual fans have been fooled by Barajas’ debut into thinking that he’s an above average catcher, and he’s just not.
In his first five games as a Dodger, Barajas hit those three homers, and he had a .526 OBP. That’s a great start by a player looking to make a good impression on a new employer, but five games is hardly enough to overcome 11+ years of sustained mediocrity. True to form, in his next 20 games, he hit .250/.302/.396, which is a lot more like it.
Barajas turned 35 last month. He’s just not that good, and an incredibly well-timed week-long hot streak doesn’t change that. Now, it’s hard enough to find one decent catcher, much less two, so if you want to bring him back at the veteran minimum to back up Martin (or whomever) to add some much-needed pop off the bench, I can live with that. But if his nice week fooled people into thinking he can be the starting catcher on the 2011 club, then we’re all in big trouble.
******
Next up, James Loney‘s infuriating mediocrity! John Lindsey‘s heartwarming story! It’s first base!
Ted Lilly May Be Sticking Around
October 16, 2010 at 9:18 pm | Posted in Ted Lilly | 29 CommentsApologies for being incognito all week, but there hasn’t been much going on and I’ve been otherwise occupied. There’s finally something to talk about, as according to Dylan Hernandez, Ted Lilly‘s close to an agreement on a 3-year deal to return to the Dodgers.
This comes as no surprise, as we’ve been expecting this for weeks. It’s hard to offer a full judgement without knowing the dollar signs, but I’d guess that about $25m probably sounds about right. Obviously, with just two starters under contract for next year, bringing back either Lilly, Hiroki Kuroda, or Vicente Padilla (if not more than one) was a must, and while you weren’t going to get Lilly for less than three years, I must say the length worries me. Were I not checking in from a pub corner booth to pound this out on my phone, I’d reference the post I wrote a few weeks ago saying I wanted him back for one year, maybe two, but not three. His velocity keeps decreasing, and his flyball and homer tendencies are scary.
Still, this does fill a big hole in next year’s rotation, and we’ll need to see how the finances are structured. Now can they please get Kershaw signed?
The MSTI 2011 Plan, Part 2: Pitching
October 12, 2010 at 10:13 am | Posted in Chin-Lung Hu, George Sherrill, John Ely, Jon Link, Jonathan Broxton, Justin Duchscherer, Kenshin Kawakami, Pedro Baez, Ronald Belisario, Tom Gorzelanny, Vicente Padilla | 105 CommentsLots of good comments on the Offense post yesterday – thanks. Of course, you can’t have a team without a pitching staff, and today we try to do some reconstructive surgery on the arms. I’ll be honest up front and say that it’s not going to be pretty. Filling three rotation spots isn’t easy even when you do have a ton of free cash, and the available starters are less than awe-inspiring. Other than Cliff Lee, the jewel of the market who’s never coming to the Dodgers, the best free agent starter is… Carl Pavano? Jorge de la Rosa? Ted Lilly, maybe? It’s not a great group, and the always-large demand plus that lack of supply means that some team is going to get silly and give those guys 3-4 years at big dollars. This is the one time that the payroll restrictions are actually a good thing, because Ned Colletti likely won’t have the chance to go out and be the one to make that mistake.
That said, you still have to put together a staff, and here’s one man’s crack at it.
1) Sign Clayton Kershaw to a 5 year, $30m contract…
…if you can even still get him that cheaply. I’d go into this in greater detail, except I already did just that in August. Basically, based on recent deals signed by comparable pitchers like Ricky Romero, Yovani Gallardo, and Jon Lester, this is about the going rate for a quality young starter with a pre-arbitration year left.
Sure, you could wait another year. You could enjoy the fact that he’s making just $500k or so in 2011, but that’s only going to cost you more down the road. He’s increased his WAR in each of his three years in the bigs, at the same time as he’s decreased his WHIP and K/BB. What happens when next year is the year he truly blows up? The cost is going to get astronomical. Better to do it now.
Fortunately, deals like these are rarely paid out evenly over the length of the contract, so we don’t have to worry about fitting in $6m into the 2011 budget. Doubling his 2011 salary ought to be enough to start, and the dollars increase over the remainder.
This is probably my highest priority of any move this entire winter.
$72.5m + $1m = $73.5m
2) Offer Ted Lilly arbitration, expecting he’ll decline.
As detailed here, I think it’s more likely that Lilly would decline rather than accept. If he does accept, you can make it work, of course. For this exercise, we’re assuming he signs a Randy Wolf-like three-year deal elsewhere.
$73.5m+ $0m = $73.5m (plus two draft picks)
3) Don’t offer Hiroki Kuroda arbitration, fearing he’ll accept.
As detailed here. I love Kuroda, and he could command a big free-agent contract, but the danger that he’ll want to commit to only one more year of American baseball and end up with a $16m+ arbitration judgement is far too risky, especially for an older pitcher with an injury history.
$73.5m+ $0m = $73.5m
4) Deal with the arbitration cases of Chad Billingsley and Hong-Chih Kuo.
Guessing arbitration prizes can be notoriously difficult, so I’ll go with Eric Stephen’s predictions on the TBLA payroll sheet for Chad Billingsley & Hong-Chih Kuo, which are $5.5m and $2.5m, respectively. I’d just as soon sign Billingsley to a long-term deal as well, but it’s probably pushing our luck to think that even Kershaw would get signed this winter, much less both.
As for the others… say “smell you later” for the moment to George Sherrill , Jeff Weaver and Vicente Padilla.
$73.5m + $8m = $81.5m
5) Trade James Loney to the Cubs for Tom Gorzelanny.
Loney’s an interesting case, because I think he’s one of those guys where there’s a massive divide between what regular fans and media types think of him as opposed to the impression the hardcore stat types have. We of course know that Loney’s a decent enough MLB hitter, yet subpar among his first base peers, especially in a league stacked with Albert Pujols, Joey Votto, Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez, Aubrey Huff, and Adam Dunn (and that’s only the NL!). Sure, the RBI totals are somewhat shiny, but he finished 19th among 24 qualified MLB 1B in WAR. That was fine when he was an 0-3 player making $500k; it’s becoming a lot less fine as he ascends the arbitration scale without making a lot of progress on the field.
That doesn’t mean he’s without value, of course. I think a lot of other people see a guy who’s only 26, has a sweet swing and a smooth glove, and nearly drove in 90 runs for the third year in a row. It’s not enough to get you an ace starter, but it should be enough to get you a decent enough pitcher – and it just so happens the Dodgers have rotation holes to fill.
Meanwhile, the Cubs need a first baseman with Derrek Lee in Atlanta and Xavier Nady headed to free agency. Though it didn’t work that way in 2010, Loney’s always been more successful away from Dodger Stadium – more than 140 points of OPS better, in fact, with a career line of .309/.362/.495. That’s a lot more like it, and I worried back in the 2010 Maple Street Press Annual that he might need a change of scenery. The Cubs have most of their rotation set with Carlos Zambrano, Carlos Silva, Randy Wells, and Ryan Dempster, and could probably manage to fill the #5 spot elsewhere in order to take a chance on Loney.
As for Gorzelanny, he’s a 28-year-old lefty who’s been a bit up-and-down, but has FIP of 3.91 and 3.92 the last two years, good for 2.1 WAR this year (you can safely ignore the 5.55 ERA from 2009). Joe Pawlikowski of FanGraphs was pretty high on Gorzelanny back in July:
In fact, Gorzelanny has enough going for him that he can be expected to continue pitching well. I’m not even sure exactly why Pittsburgh, a team desperate for pitching, traded him in the first place. He was quite excellent in the high minors prior to his full-time MLB promotion, and even when the Pirates demoted him in 2008 and 2009 he pitched very well in the minors.
Like Perez, Gorzelanny’s resurgence could be a temporary thing. His control still isn’t where it needs to be, and that will be an important component of his game going forward. Yet Gorzelanny’s peripherals, both in the minors and the majors, make him look like a better case for permanent recovery. The Cubs, to their benefit, have three more years of team control, so they’ll get a long look at what Gorzelanny can do in the long run. Considering the state of the Pirates’ pitching, I’m sure Hungtington would love to get backsies on this one.
Gorzelanny’s probably not much more than a 4th starter, but he’s also going to make just about $1m next year in his first year of arbitration. Besides, Loney would probably make between $4-5m in arbitration, so moving that means you’re only paying an extra $3m or so for Dunn, assuming you backload his contract a bit.
I also considered trying to move Loney to Tampa for Matt Garza here, but the Rays are in serious cost-cutting mode and don’t seem like the type to pay $4-5m to a player like Loney who doesn’t get much love from the statistical community.
(Note: I’ve had this part written for nearly three weeks. I only just now realized that a few people in the TBLA comments suggested this deal as well on Friday, and then more than one person did so in my own comments yesterday. Great minds, right?)
$81.5m + $1m = $82.5m
6) Sign Vicente Padilla to a one year, $4m deal.
What a bizarre year for Padilla. After coming off the offseason shooting incident, he got a totally unexpected Opening Day start, which he turned into an underwhelming April and then nearly two months on the DL with a forearm injury. Yet when he came back, he was sublime, going eight consecutive starts without allowing more than two earned runs – before missing the last month with a bulging disc in his neck.
Padilla made $5.025m in 2010, and his summer stretch had him positioned for a possible multi-year deal. But the multiple injuries and his well-documented personal issues combine to make that unlikely, and he seems to have found a home in LA. You’re taking a risk on his health, but when he is healthy he’s quite good – and that’s worth the $4m to me.
Besides, I want another season of Vin Scully saying “soap bubble”.
$82.5m + $4m = $86.5m
7) Don’t rely on John Ely to be your 5th starter.
I was one of the few who supported Ely even after his season headed south, because the bar for 5th starters is so low. He had a FIP of 4.38; from a 5th starter, that’s fine with me.
The problem here is that teams almost never use only five starters, due to injury and poor performance. The Dodgers this year used ten starters, from Clayton Kershaw‘s 32 to James McDonald‘s 1. If Ely is your 6th or 7th best option, then you can still be reasonably confident that he’ll get a few shots to prove himself next year, but you won’t be totally dependent on “good Ely” to appear instead of “bad Ely”. If you do rely on him to win the 5th spot, then as soon as someone gets injured or faltered, you’re already relying on someone who’s worse than Ely. And that’s not a good situation to be in.
Of course, if Ely’s not rounding out the rotation, someone else needs to, and we’re going to handle that when we…
$86.5m + $0 = $86.5m
8) Trade Chin-lung Hu to Atlanta for Kenshin Kawakami.
In a vacuum, I’d prefer Hu to Kawakami. However, Hu’s out of options headed into 2011, and there’s no room for him on my Opening Day roster, so I need to turn him into something, and Kawakami’s my ultimate buy-low idea this winter. Just look at his stat line for the last two seasons..
2009: 6.04 K/9, 3.28 BB/9, 4.21 FIP, 4.61 xFIP
2010: 6.08 K/9, 3.30 BB/9, 4.35 FIP, 4.56 xFIP
Two basically identical seasons, right? Sure, except that in 2009 he was 7-12 with a 3.86 ERA, getting him at least a mention in NL ROY articles… and in 2010 he was 1-10 with a 5.15 ERA, getting him banished to the bench as insurance, as he pitched only 3 times after June and badly damaging his relationship with the team. He was more hittable than in 2009 for sure, but this definitely looks like another case of far too much stock being put in a pitcher’s W-L record and ERA (in addition to the Braves having plenty of quality starting options). It seems impossible that he’ll be back in Atlanta, and the Braves could use another shortstop option with Yunel Escobar in Toronto and Alex Gonzalez headed to free agency, even if Hu isn’t the starter – and his slick-fielding may appeal to a team that just saw their defense implode in the NLDS.
As for Kawakami, I’m not pretending he’s anywhere near as good as Hiroki Kuroda, because he’s not. I just can’t help pointing out that they each spent their final season in Japan in the Central League, and Kawakami (2008: 1.06 WHIP, 8.59 K/9, 1.92 BB/9) outpitched Kuroda (2007: 1.21 WHIP, 6.16 K/9, 2.10 BB/9).
It clearly hasn’t worked out as well in America for Kawakami, but it seems like a gamble worth taking. Kawakami is due $6.67m in the final year of a three-year deal. We’re going to say that the Braves will eat much of it in order to save $2m and get Hu in exchange for a pitcher they have no use for.
If it works out, great, you get a decent 5th starter. If not, all it cost you was $2m and a backup infielder who wasn’t going to make the roster anyway.
$86.5m + $2m = $88.5m
_____________________________________
Now that the starting rotation is set, it’s time to look at the bullpen. I’m sure a lot of people would love to keep Kuo and Kenley Jansen and blow up the rest, but it’s just not realistic, either from a financial or a talent standpoint. In the same way that it was hard to imagine that Jonathan Broxton and Ronald Belisario and Ramon Troncoso and George Sherrill would all have blown up together in 2010, it’s hard to imagine that not a single one is going to recapture that 2009 magic in 2011.
That’s not to say that we need to bring back the exact same crew, of course, but spending big money on relievers isn’t an option with the Dodger payroll, nor is it a good idea even if you did have that money. Big dollar investments in non-closer relievers rarely ever work out, as the Boston Herald does a good job of displaying here.
Kuo and Jansen ($88.5m + $0.4m = $88.9m) are no-brainers, and in this age of the seven-man bullpen, we have five more spots to fill. Here’s how we’re going to do it.
9) One of five: Give Jonathan Broxton a chance to rebound.
Broxton’s second-half nosedive really killed my plans, because I wanted to trade him. I wouldn’t want to pay any closer $7m, and that money can be put to better use elsewhere. If Broxton had just made it through another three months performing like he had for the previous three years, he could have been a great trade chip to bring back a bat or a starting pitcher.
Of course, his implosion changes all that, and as I detailed last month, I don’t see much of a trade market for him. That doesn’t mean I wouldn’t do a deal if the right offer were made, just that I wouldn’t give him away for nothing. Don Mattingly claims that Broxton goes into 2011 as his closer, which I don’t totally agree with, but that’s obviously the best possible outcome. If he can come back from whatever took him down, then you get back a top closer, take pressure off Kuo and Jansen, and have a great piece to trade in July if the Dodgers are out of it. Really, I just want to extract the most value from Broxton, whether that’s on-the-field performance or return via trade, and moving him now isn’t the way to do that.
Besides, all the people you hear saying he’s “mentally weak” were saying the same thing about Chad Billingsley last winter, and you saw how well that worked out. If Broxton’s late-season disaster proved anything, it’s that the 9th inning wasn’t the source of his problems. Whether it was bad mechanics, overuse by Joe Torre (don’t forget that he was asked to throw 99 pitches in five days, and that’s where his troubles began), or an unknown injury (Josh Suchon on DodgerTalk claimed he saw Broxton’s ankle heavily taped after a late-season game), there’s a lot of viable reasons for his downfall. The hope is that a winter of rest can help him come back and regain that value, and giving him that chance – even if he’s not the closer initially – is the right move.
$88.9m + $7m = $95.9m
10) Two of five: Sign Justin Duchsherer to a one year, $1m deal.
Sure, he’s pitched in just five MLB games over the last two seasons due to injury, but what fun would this be without a lottery ticket? Unlike other “pie in the sky” guys like Brandon Webb, Ben Sheets, and Rich Harden, Duchscherer likely won’t require a big base salary, as he made just $1.75m with Oakland in 2010.
Duchscherer missed most of the last two years with injuries to each hip, but he’s proven that he can be effective if healthy. It’s of course the “if healthy” part which is a problem, and here’s how we make that work. Unless he comes into camp and blows everyone away, you make him your 6th-starter/bullpen ace. Before Oakland converted him into a starter in 2008, he was a bullpen weapon, appearing in 53, 65, and 53 games in 2004-06. We’ll do that again here, leaving the option of him being a spot starter available – basically, it’s the Jeff Weaver role.
The idea here is that if you can get 25 or so basically-average starts combined from Kawakami and Duchscherer, along with some bullpen value out of JD, that’s a great return on $3m.
$95.9m + $1m = $96.9m
11) Three of five: Accept that Ronald Belisario is going to have a spot next year.
I don’t want to gloss over Belisario’s extreme unreliability, but assuming nothing else happens, he’s basically assured of a spot. Why? Because his value is low enough that it’s not worth trading him, but since he’s out of options, you can’t send him to the minors and you’re not just going to cut him loose for nothing.
It’s also worth nothing that his 2010 wasn’t just a giant pile of suck, as many would have you believe. After his late arrival to camp, Belisario was reasonably decent through July: .608 OPS, only 2 HR allowed in 35 games. Then he disappeared for a month, and in August and September he fell apart: .856 OPS against, 4 HR allowed in 24 games (though to be fair, he gave up 9 ER in his first three games back and was much better after that).
We still don’t really know what happened to cause his month away from the team, but it’s not hard to infer that it was some sort of personal problem which took his focus away from baseball. That, plus the two long absences, could easily have thrown his timing and conditioning off. If he’s able to avoid such issues in 2011 – which, I admit, is far from certain – he’s my best choice for a rebound.
This assumes he can make it to camp on time, of course. Third time’s the charm?
$96.9m + $0.4m = $97.3m
12) Four of five: One spot goes to one of the up-and-down righty relievers we saw this year.
That’d be Ramon Troncoso, Jon Link, and Travis Schlichting. Hell, even toss Josh Lindblom in there. I imagine all four will see time in LA in 2011, and the first three have all had their moments. Whichever one breaks camp with the team is largely irrelevant, but you know at least one will. For the moment, I’ll say… Link.
$97.3m + $0.4m = $97.7m
13) Five of five: Insert veteran non-roster invite here.
It happens every year, so while I’d love to go out and sign Koji Uehara, Joaquin Benoit, Hisanori Takahashi or someone similar, we all know that this is going to be filled by your obligatory Jeff Weaver or Chan Ho Park-type. Perhaps literally Jeff Weaver or Chan Ho Park, which is fine, just as long as it’s no one named Ortiz.
I’ll actually propose something pretty unpopular, and that’s to bring George Sherrill back for the minimum after he gets non-tendered. I know the fans would revolt if that happened, and Sherrill might not want to come back himself, but it’s worth noting that even in his horrendous 2010, he was still dominant against left-handers: .192/.286/.288. It’s going to be hard to find anyone else who can do that, and Sherrill at least comes with the slight chance that he finds the performance he brought with him to LA. You really think Weaver or Park has that upside?
$97.7m + $0.8m = $98.5m
14) Just turn Pedro Baez into a pitcher already.
This doesn’t really impact the 2011 team, and I realize that every light-hitting, strong-armed minor league hitter isn’t going to be the next Kenley Jansen. I also realize that Baez has absolutely no hope of making the big leagues as a third baseman. He’ll be 23 next spring, yet had just a .306 OBP and 6 HR despite playing against kids 3-4 years younger in the Inland Empire launching pad. The one thing he does have going for him is a rocket for an arm. Why not take that 0% chance of him being a 3B and turn it into a 5% chance he makes it as a reliever? I’d be shocked if DeJon Watson hasn’t already begun those conversations already.
$98.5m + $0 = $98.5m
_____________________________________
Here’s your 2011 pitching staff:
SP L Clayton Kershaw
SP R Chad Billingsley
SP R Vicente Padilla
SP L Tom Gorzelanny
SP R Kenshin Kawakami
RP R Justin Duchscherer
RP R Jon Link
RP L George Sherrill / NRI
RP R Ronald Belisario
RP L Hong-Chih Kuo
RP R Kenley Jansen
RP R Jonathan Broxton
Then you have John Ely, Carlos Monasterios, Travis Schlichting, Ramon Troncoso, Josh Lindblom, Brent Leach, and a cast of thousands in reserve behind them.
Unlike the offense, where I think I was able to clearly improve it, I guess I can’t say the same about the pitching – though I do think it has more depth. It’s just important to remember that having Kuroda and Lilly in your rotation was never more than a short-term solution, because having them both for next year is totally unrealistic – unless your offense was full of rookies making the minimum. So while this rotation may not seem as good as the one that ended 2010 (and I don’t argue otherwise), you’re not working from that rotation. You’re working from one that has only Kershaw and Billingsley right now.
What you hope for here is that Kershaw continues his ascent, giving you a solid 1-2 with Billingsley. You pray that Broxton figures it out and that Kuo holds together for one more season, and you realize that what your team looks like in April is never what it looks like in July. If the team is in contention, adding a 3rd top pitcher could really do wonders.
Either way, I was able to do all of this for about $98.5m and cashing in Scott Elbert, Xavier Paul, James Loney, Russell Martin, and Chin-lung Hu, while adding two draft picks for Lilly. I won’t say this team is suddenly a World Series contender, but I do think the offense and pitching I’ve presented the last two days are definitely superior to the team we saw fall apart in 2010.
The MSTI 2011 Plan, Part 1: Offense
October 11, 2010 at 10:56 am | Posted in Adam Dunn, Jeff Francouer, Ryan Raburn, Scott Elbert, Tim Collins, Wilson Betemit | 97 CommentsWell, it’s that time of the year again. In what is annually my longest post of the year, it’s time to look close the book on the season (like we didn’t do that months ago) and start planning for next year.
Of course, this particular off-season is a little uglier than usual. As if the divorce case wasn’t making enough ugly headlines by itself, this is a team that failed on pretty much all fronts this season, is constrained by a tight budget – and has $17m of dead money committed to Jason Schmidt and the entire White Sox outfield. They’ve got just two starting pitchers, no catcher, no second baseman, no left fielder, and a bunch of under-performing incumbents. They need power, they need OBP, they need starters… and they have no money to help their rookie manager get those things. It’s not going to be a pretty winter, that’s for sure.
Still, that doesn’t mean there isn’t hope. With a little bit of creativity and a dash of luck, there’s moves to be made which can get this team back on the right track. Now, keep in mind that this is what I might try do, not in any way a prediction of what the team will do. How can you make any predictions about a team who thought trading James McDonald and Andrew Lambo for 18.2 innings of Octavio Dotel and a player to be named was a good idea, anyway?
By my calculations, the Dodgers have $43m in obligations for 2011 to the following six players: Rafael Furcal, Casey Blake, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Jamey Carroll, & Jonathan Broxton. Add the $17m or so in “dead money”, and you’re up to $60m, before considering arbitration cases and filling out the roster.
The real unknown, of course, is how high the ceiling is for the 2011 club. And I’ll admit, I have absolutely no idea. Many think that the payroll could be cut drastically as the divorce case plays out, yet some (including Tony Jackson and Buster Olney) think there might be more to play with as Frank McCourt tries to repair his image. So for this exercise, I’ll say $95-100m is the goal. That may not be exact, but this is all for fun, anyway. With $60m already committed, I have $35-$40m remaining, and nineteen holes to fill. Let’s see what we can do.
This is the third year in a row I’ve done this, but the first time in which it’s become so big that I’ve felt the need to split it up between more than one post. So today we focus on the offense, and check back tomorrow for pitching.
1) Sign Adam Dunn to a 3 year, $33m contract (slightly backloaded)… but to play 1B, not to replace Manny Ramirez in LF.
Dunn’s an absolutely atrocious outfielder, yet he’s merely a pretty bad first baseman (though it should be noted he ranked better by UZR this year than Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, Paul Konerko, and Miguel Cabrera). While I agree with you that he really ought to be a DH, he’s been very clear that he doesn’t want to sign with an AL team that would take his glove away. Besides, being a lousy first baseman doesn’t really mean as much as being a poor fielder elsewhere, as John Dewan of the Fielding Bible explains.
I’ll admit that I’ve coveted Dunn for years, and my hypothetical Dodgers have enough money to make one big splash. You could argue that finding a pitcher is more important, but pitching is always overpriced on the free agent market, and if you don’t do something to add some power and OBP, then it’s not going to matter anyway. Dunn’s not without his warts, but he’s also among the most consistent power hitters of the last generation – you know you’re getting 35-40 homers and an above-average OBP, and as he’s just turning 31, you should get him before his decline sets in. Besides, you saw what kind of difference Manny made on Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier when he was in the lineup, right? Nothing torpedoed the 2010 club more than lousy offense, and getting one of the top 3 bats available would be a huge step in the right direction.
While it may seem difficult to think that Dunn wouldn’t get more or the Dodgers could be in on a contract like this, remember that Dunn is limiting his own market by ignoring the AL, and teams like the Cardinals, Padres, Reds, Phillies, Mets, Astros, Marlins, and Rockies probably aren’t going to be in the market for a 1B. That limits the competition greatly, mainly to the Cubs and Nationals, and Washington has given indications they’d prefer the superior defense and lower cost of Carlos Pena. (The crowd at FanGraphs seem to agree with my 3/33 guess, as well). It’s not impossible, and I’m more concerned about the years than the money anyway. I’d rather give him 2, but I don’t think that’s doable; I’d live with 3, but wouldn’t go 4.
Now tell me you don’t feel better about the offense with just this one move? But wait! There’s more…
$60m + $8m = $68m
2a) Trade Russell Martin to Detroit…
I went back and forth about Martin about a million times. On one hand, I hardly need to remind you that he followed up his horrendous 2009 with more or less the same year in 2010, except that he set a career high with a 18.4% K rate. On the other, the state of catching is so dreadful right now that he actually managed to put up a 2.1 WAR this year, thanks to the replacement level being so low.
Martin never looked so good as right after he was injured, when Brad Ausmus and A.J. Ellis combined to hit about .020 and go six months without throwing out a runner. (Those numbers may be slightly exaggerated, but probably not as much as you’d think). Sure, Rod Barajas had a fantastically hot start and Ellis even caught fire in September, but if Martin wasn’t the rising star he saw in 2007, nor was he the total failure we’d all become accustomed to thinking of him as. Neither Barajas (and his .284 career OBP) or Ellis have the skill to be anything like peak-level Russell Martin.
However… peak-level Martin isn’t walking through that door. Martin made over $5m last year, and he would probably make at least $6m in arbitration. Plus, he’s coming back from a broken hip, and while he avoided surgery, it’s still a broken hip, not exactly a common injury for catchers to be coming back from. You could make the argument that he’s worth that kind of salary if he’d had a great year or if he wasn’t coming off that injury; you could take the risk on the injury if you had a hefty payroll. That’s not something my hypothetical team is willing to do next year, and I’d probably non-tender him if a trade isn’t an option.
As for Detroit, Alex Avila had only a .674 OPS himself, and Gerald Laird was even worse as he heads into free agency. The Tigers have a ton of money to spend, and they could use a veteran backstop to pair with the 23-year-old Avila. There’s an added bonus here, because other than Toronto, this is the closest place to home you can send Martin.
$68m + $0m = $68m
2b) …for Ryan Raburn.
I first noted Raburn in my Jonathan Broxton post last week, and thought that Broxton was too high a price to pay for him. That doesn’t mean I haven’t been interested in him for a while as a multi-positional asset who bashes left-handed pitching, and the Dodgers reportedly looked at him in July. They ended up with Scott Podsednik. They chose poorly.
That might be underselling him, actually; he had OPS of .891 and .826 the last two seasons, with 16 and 15 homers. He really shined against lefties though – .931 OPS this year, .976 last year. The Tigers never saw him as an every-day player and instead let him start at six different positions, everywhere but SS and C. Overall, he was worth 2.1 WAR this year. While I briefly considered putting him at 2B to fill the Theriot-sized hole, Raburn is by all accounts a below-average infielder, so we’ll use him in the outfield here. The infield experience is nice to have for double-switches and extra-innings affairs, though.
For the purposes of this exercise, we’ll say that no money changes hands and each team is responsible for the arbitration case. Raburn will probably get about $1m.
$68m + $1m = $69m
3) Punt on the left field problem by platooning Raburn with Jay Gibbons.
Everyone seems to think that getting a big-time outfielder is a must just because Manny is gone, but beyond Carl Crawford (who the Dodgers can’t afford) and Jayson Werth (who they probably also can’t afford, and who would never come back), there’s nothing all that exciting out there. Meanwhile, the Dodgers have Trayvon Robinson and Jerry Sands each about a year away from contributing. There’s no need to overpay for someone mediocre who would just end up blocking one of those two, and since we’ve replaced Manny’s bat with Dunn’s, going lower-cost here is okay.
Raburn crushes lefties. Gibbons has a 60-point OPS advantage against righties in his career. His outfield defense is.. well.. better than Manny, right? You make do with what you can on a limited budget, and if used properly these two could make for a very productive combo. Gibbons has made it clear he badly wants to be back. We’ll take advantage of that and give him $800k.
$69m + $800k = $69.8m
4) Don’t make the disastrous July trades any worse by hanging on to Ryan Theriot or Scott Podsednik just to save face.
As outlined here for Theriot, he’s one of the worst second basemen in baseball, and certainly not worth the $3.5m or so he’d get in arbitration. If you can fool some team into giving up any sort of a useful bullpen arm for him, I’d do it in a heartbeat, though I don’t think it’s all that likely. Podsednik’s going to be 35, had a .313 OBP for the Dodgers with so-so defense, and missed the last month with a foot injury, therefore putting the only skill he actually has in jeopardy. Uh, no thanks.
$69.8m + $0.1m Podsednik buyout = $69.9m
5) Sign Juan Uribe to a 1-year, $5m deal to play 2B with an option for 2012.
Yes, he’s a Giant, and one with a .310 OBP at that. But the Dodgers are probably going to pay Theriot $3.5m to play decentish defense while being a black hole at the plate. If you’re going to pay that much for a 2B without much of an OBP, why not pay just a bit more for better defense and more power?
Theriot has 16 homers in his big-league career. Uribe has hit at least 16 in six of the last seven seasons; his .440 SLG this year and .431 SLG career is nearly 100 points better than Theriot’s ever had. On defense, Uribe (10.9 UZR/150 at 2B) is better than Theriot is (4.3 UZR/150 at 2B), plus he’s above average at SS and 3B – and provides excellent insurance for another Rafael Furcal injury, as he started 96 games at SS this year with Edgar Renteria ailing.
Uribe’s not perfect. But for $4-5m, would you rather a low-OBP guy with zero power and decent defense, or a low-OBP guy with good power and plus defense? Now, it’s possible I’m short-changing the contract Uribe would get here, but he was horrendous in 2007 and ’08, to the point where he had to take a minor-league deal before 2009. That, plus the fact he’s turning 32 next spring and that he entered 2010 as a backup to Renteria and Freddy Sanchez, means I can’t see anyone investing a bunch of years.
$69.9m+ $5m = $74.9m
6) Turn Casey Blake into the lefty-mashing bench bat he ought to be.
I worried weeks ago that Blake was nearing the end of the line, putting up some of the worst numbers of his career. Since then we’ve seen Joe Torre say that Blake needed more rest, and Blake mention that he would accept a reduced role if it were put upon him. Making sure he’s not the everyday guy in 2011 is a must.
However, Blake’s not completely without his uses. While he was just the 30th-best 3B against RHP this year (min. 150 PA, by OPS), he was the 6th-best against lefties (.895 OPS). That’s a difference of more than 220 points of OPS, and at his age it’s clear that both selective use and more rest could be a huge boon to him.
It lines up nicely, too, since Dunn’s far weaker against fellow southpaws at 1B. Blake would make an outstanding backup corner IF / designated LHP-crusher, and can even serve as a break-glass-in-case-of-emergency corner outfielder as well.
Of course, if you’re pushing Blake to the bench, that means you need a primary 3B who can hit righties, and that’s why we’re going to welcome back a former Dodger 3B (no, not that one) when we…
$74.9m + $0m = $74.9m
7) Trade Xavier Paul and Scott Elbert to Kansas City for Wilson Betemit and Tim Collins.
I’m anticipating that this is going to be the most unpopular move I propose – perhaps on both sides – but that’s okay.
A replacement for Blake was by far the hardest hole to fill. I don’t think I fully realized this until I started researching, but only 12 3B had even an .800 OPS against righties this year, and most of them are guys like Evan Longoria, Alex Rodriguez, and Ryan Zimmerman – i.e., not even worth discussing as viable options. The more I looked at the list, the more I became convinced that Blake really will still be the Dodger 3B in 2011.
But that’s not good enough for my hypothetical team. We can do better, and Betemit had a pretty monstrous half-season for Kansas City this year: .297/.378/.511. Almost as important, he’s a switch-hitter who’s been more successful against RHP than LHB over his career, which fits into our scheme here (though this year he’s done very well against both).
Now, I can hear the objections to this already. “It was half a season. He spent much of the last two years in the minors. And haven’t we seen this movie before?” All fair points. But I’ll argue that Betemit’s been pretty underrated. In parts of 8 seasons, his career line is .267/.335/.449, which works out to a 103 OPS+, even though much of that came when he was far too young (he made his MLB debut at 19, and saw significant time at 22). Before being traded in 2007, he had a .359 OBP and .474 SLG in 84 games for the Dodgers. How was production like that a problem again? Oh, right, it’s because people put far too much stock in a low batting average.
What that means is that despite the fact he’s been around forever, he’s still only turning 29 next month, and he’d hardly be the first guy to take a little longer to figure it out. Besides, in one of the very first posts on this blog – way back in July of 2007 – I argued that he should be given more playing time at 3B. Why not rectify that four years later? It’s not a perfect solution, and his defense may be suspect, but I do believe he’ll outperform Blake in 2011. In what’s become a running theme, he’s also received starts at 1B, 2B, and LF this year, adding more versatility along with Raburn.
As for Paul to the Royals, they have a ton of minor-league talent, but it’s still probably at least a year or two away, and 3B is about to be taken by Mike Moustakas, one of the brightest stars in the minors. They’re not going to contend in 2011, so if they need someone to cover for a few weeks before Moustakas arrives, Josh Fields can do that. Paul’s proven all he needs to prove in the minors (.882 OPS in AAA), but just needs some regular playing time in the bigs. He’s unlikely to get that in LA, especially since the Dodgers already have two lefty outfielders in Andre Ethier and Jay Gibbons, and as he’s out of options they’ll need to do something with him. The KC outfield is unsettled beyond David DeJesus, who’s coming off injury and may be a trade candidate, with Alex Gordon and his .664 OPS likely to have a spot as well. Paul’s got talent, and could find opportunity in KC.
Then we swap Elbert for Collins and… well, look. Elbert’s probably the most talented of the four, and the former 1st-round pick has produced in the minors, striking out 10.4/9 (and has even struck out more than a man per inning in his brief MLB time). I don’t want to move him, but of course you’re not going to get Betemit for nothing, and after his strange 2010 season it’s not hard to think that a change of scenery is a good idea for him. He’s originally from Missouri, anyway.
Collins is fun because of his absurd strikeout numbers; at only 20, he’s averaging 13.3 K/9. He’s not seen as a top prospect, however, because of his height (5’7″, which may be generous), and he was actually traded twice in 2010. He went from Toronto to Atlanta as part of the Alex Gonzalez/Yunel Escobar deal, and then to KC in the deal which sent Kyle Farnsworth and Rick Ankiel to Atlanta. Clearly, his trade value hasn’t been particularly high, considering the names there.
I’m guessing that Dodger fans will think this is giving up too much, and Royal fans won’t think it’s enough. That probably means it’s about right. Either way, I don’t pretend to be a prospect expert. If it’s not exactly these names, but something similar that gets the deal done, that’s fine too.
$74.9m + $2m = $76.9m
8) Sign Jeff Francoeur to a 1-year, $1.5m deal once he inevitably gets non-tendered by Texas.
I know, I know. I hate myself for even suggesting it, and if any of my Met fan or baseball writer friends see this here they’ll die laughing and unfollow me. But hear me out; we’re trying to build a team on a limited budget, and sometimes that means working around a player’s limitations in order to take advantage of his strengths.
Jeff Francoeur, for all his ridiculous portrayals in the media, has two strengths and one extremely large weakness. He’s a very strong defensive outfielder with a good arm, and he can hit lefty pitching (.823 OPS career). What Francoeur cannot do, under any circumstances, is hit righty pitching (.639 OPS this year, .699 career). However, it just so happens that the Dodgers have an outfielder in Andre Ethier who’s a mediocre defender and even worse against lefties (.625 OPS this year, .681 career) than Francoeur is against righties. Do I have to spell out the fit here? It’s basically the Reed Johnson role, except that Johnson is 7 years older, couldn’t stay healthy, and had less upside.
The danger here is having a manager who gets fooled by Francoeur’s lefty-bashing tendencies and wants to play him every day, a trap we saw Jerry Manuel fall into this season. It remains to be seen whether Don Mattingly can handle that, but in my hypothetical 2011 world, we have a manager who can.
$76.9m + $1.5m = $78.4m
9) Suck it up and go with A.J. Ellis and Rod Barajas behind the plate.
I can’t believe I’m saying this either, because I’ve been driving the “Barajas was never that good and Ellis isn’t a major league hitter” train. I’ll admit I’m not thrilled about this. Unfortunately, you’re dealing with a very tight budget, and there’s not a lot of other choices out there. Victor Martinez isn’t an option, and John Buck‘s likely to get a lot more than he deserves. Do you really want Bengie Molina? Jason Varitek? Yeccch.
So if you’re going to have to skimp somewhere, this is probably the place to do it, and Ellis and Barajas could be a decent combo as two total opposites. Ridiculous intro to LA aside, Barajas is still a guy with a career .284 OBP, but he’s definitely got pop, hitting double-digit homers in six of the last seven years. Meanwhile, Ellis would kill to have Juan Pierre‘s power (no, really; he hasn’t hit a pro homer since 2008) but he does have a .398 career OBP in the minors and managed .363 in the bigs this year, with a nice 18/14 K/BB mark in limited time. Barajas even has a reverse-platoon split, dealing with RHP better than LHP, so you could schedule starts around that.
Neither’s a long-term solution, but each has a decent defensive reputation, and for just over $1m, it could be worse. I guess. I can easily see regretting this by May.
$78.4m + $0.4 (Ellis) + $0.8 (Barajas) = $79.6m
10) Don’t guarantee Russ Mitchell a job.
I’ve seen it mentioned in several places that Mitchell’s all but certain to have a bench spot on the 2011 club, because of his low cost and positional versatility. To that I say, why? I didn’t have very high hopes for Mitchell when he was recalled, and he didn’t do much to change that perception by getting just six hits in the bigs without a single walk. He’s got options left. Send him back to ABQ, let him provide depth should injuries happen, but do not start the season with him on the bench.
___________________________________
So here’s the Opening Day roster you’re looking at..
C Ellis (R)
1B Dunn (L)
2B Uribe (R)
SS Furcal (S)
3B Betemit (S)
LF Raburn (R)
CF Kemp (R)
RF Ethier (L)
Bn Barajas (R-C)
Bn Blake (R-1B/3B)
Bn Carroll (R-2B/SS)
Bn Francoeur (R-OF)
Bn Gibbons (L-1B/OF)
Four of the five guys on the bench have the chance to put the ball out of the yard, four more than the Dodgers usually have. Actually, 11 of these 13 (all but Ellis and Carroll) could put up double-digit homer numbers. There’s great platoon plays, if used properly, in Blake, Francoeur, and Gibbons in place of Dunn, Ethier, and Raburn. Two switch-hitters give you great lineup flexibility, and the addition of players who can play multiple positions really helps you out in the field as well.
The main weakness here is the lack of a true backup CF, but Kemp plays every day and Raburn & Francoeur can each cover in a pinch. I suppose I’m also a bit concerned about the corner infield defense, but Furcal and Uribe are both quite good in the middle, and again there’s only so much you can do when you’re as constrained budget-wise as this team is.
If we take the platoon idea to its full extent and put together some quick lineup ideas, you’ll really see how this would improve the offense. (Yes, Kemp should probably be batting lower, that’s a discussion for a different time.) The MLB average for wOBA in 2010 is about .325, meaning that everyone here save for Kemp against RHP was at least a tick above-average this year – and no matter what other moves you make, success in 2011 is largely dependent on his bouncing back. And how much fun is the idea of sitting both Dunn and Ethier vs. a LHP, just daring the other manager to start bringing in righty relievers?
Of course, a good year in 2010 doesn’t guarantee that Betemit isn’t a fluke, or that Ellis didn’t just have a well-timed hot streak, etc. There’s no guarantees about any of this for next year… but on a team that regularly rolled out Theriot (.301 vs LHP, .280 vs RHP), Blake (.295 vs RHP), Loney (.256 vs LHP, .340 vs RHP), and Martin (.304 vs RHP), it’s hard to argue that this isn’t a team which is better poised for success – and all it’s cost us so far is Paul, Elbert, Martin, and about $15m.
“But where’s James Loney,” you’re probably asking. Well, our friend James is on his way to the Midwest in a trade for a starting pitcher…. but who? You’ll have to check back tomorrow to find out about the pitching side, where I’ve got about $20m to put together a pitching staff around the $7m already committed to Broxton. Can I do it? Come back to see.
Might Need to Rename the Blog Tomorrow
October 10, 2010 at 2:13 pm | Posted in Mike Scioscia | 12 CommentsYou might want to pay attention to tonight’s episode of the Simpsons, according to this via Hall of Very Good:
In an effort to bolster her resume, Lisa jumps at the opportunity to coach Bart’s little league team, and despite having little understanding of baseball, leads them to a record-winning streak. But when Bart confronts Lisa for taking the fun out of baseball, she benches him from the championship game. Hoping to lift his spirits, Marge spends the day with Bart at an amusement park where MLB manager and former catcher Mike Scioscia (guest-voicing as himself) reminds Bart of his genuine love of the sport. Meanwhile, with one last chance to win the game, Lisa makes an unexpected call and learns that there is more to sports than winning in the all-new “MoneyBART” episode of “The Simpsons”.
What if they reference the illness from the classic “Homer at the Bat”? What if he says, “nah, I’m over that”? Not good.
Today in Nationals Non-Stories
October 9, 2010 at 1:30 pm | Posted in James Loney, Matt Kemp | 7 CommentsI have about 5 minutes before needing to run out, but I thought it’d be fun to throw these up quickly..
Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post (via MLBTR):
The Nationals would have interest in targeting Los Angeles Dodgers center fielder Matt Kemp in a trade if the Dodgers make him available, according to a baseball source. Their potential interest in Kemp and other outfielders on the free agent market shows the Nationals may be open to a creative solution should they not re-sign first baseman Adam Dunn.
Bill Ladson of MLB.com, on 1B options for Washington:
James Loney, Dodgers: If he is available in a trade — some in the Nationals organization believe that he could be — look for Washington to go after him hard. He has been a consistent hitter the past three seasons with the Dodgers, averaging 12 home runs and 89 RBIs. One problem: whenever a trade is involved, look for opposing teams to ask for shortstop Ian Desmond or right-hander Jordan Zimmermann
I made a joke on Twitter saying “show me the team that isn’t interested in Kemp,” and got more than one joke back saying that it’s the Dodgers. There’s definitely something entertaining about the thought of the Nationals trying to upgrade their offense by going after Dodgers, isn’t there? You can expect a long winter of teams attempting to buy low on Kemp – as they should – but Ned Colletti’s been resolute that he’s not looking to move him. Besides, the only player on the Nationals who I’d be willing to move Kemp for is Ryan Zimmerman, and he’s rightfully completely untouchable. (Seriously though, I’d give up half the farm system for Zimmerman.)
As for Loney, I find the wording of his trade status interesting. “Some in the organization believe he could be” available in a trade? His salary is going up, his production isn’t matching… yeah, you better believe he’s available. I think the best the Dodgers are going to be able to do for him is a #3-#4 veteran starter type this winter, but if Jordan Zimmermann is somehow available – the former 2nd-round pick came back from Tommy John surgery to have a 1.59 ERA in 32 minor-league innings this year, and has a K/BB ratio of 3.05 in 34 MLB games – I’m definitely listening.
More Turmoil: Dennis Mannion Leaves
October 8, 2010 at 9:33 am | Posted in Frank McCourt | 9 Comments
I try not to delve into the whole “administrative politics” game, particularly involving the divorce, partly because I prefer to focus more on actual baseball issues and partly because Josh Fisher and Molly Knight have that angle covered so well. That said, it’s hard for me to ignore this morning’s breaking news, which is that yet another high-ranking member of the non-baseball front office is leaving the club.
Owner Frank McCourt will resume overseeing the day-to-day operations of the Dodgers, as the club has severed ties with President Dennis Mannion.
The Dodgers issued a written statement Thursday night, saying McCourt would take “a more direct and active role” in managing the club. McCourt, who is in the midst of a costly divorce, had been working out of a Beverly Hills office for more than a year, leaving Mannion to run the team.
McCourt will go back to being the head of baseball operations. General Manger Ned Colletti, who reported to Mannion over the last year, will once again report directly to the owner.
Colletti regularly referred to Mannion as the man he reported to directly, with McCourt off dealing with the divorce. Does this mean McCourt is moving back into the stadium? I can’t imagine the impact that’s going to have on the pending case – and I’d also like to know if Mannion didn’t appreciate the seeming demotion, or if he was asked to leave for other reasons.
I’m trying not to read too far between the lines here, but these three (separate) lines from later in Hernandez’ story don’t help the implications:
No reasons for Mannion’s departure were provided.
Attempts to reach Mannion by telephone late Thursday night failed.
The Dodgers also cut ties with two administrative assistants, Kathryn Kuykendall and Debbie Levy.
So the upshot here is… well, it’s really impossible to say if Dennis Mannion did a good job or not. But what this does mean is that you now have A) another high-ranking official leaving under mysterious circumstances and B) more direct involvement from Frank McCourt. It’s hard to see either of those as good things.
******
Final results from the 2011 Payroll question: 22.85% of you think the payroll will be under $90m, beating out the 20.97% who said $95-$100m.
What Will the 2011 Payroll Be?
October 6, 2010 at 11:01 am | Posted in Frank McCourt, Ned Colletti | 21 Comments
I’ve been trying to put the finishing touches on my 2011 plan, which I’d hoped to run this week but now might push to Monday, and one of the biggest hang-ups is not being sure how much money the club will actually be able to spend on payroll. Thanks to the divorce atrocity, that’s not something anyone seems to be able to guess, including Ned Colletti, if you believe the quotes in T.J. Simers’ story:
Colletti said he doesn’t have an answer from Frank McCourt on how much money, if any, will be available this off-season to improve the team.
The Dodgers have exclusive rights to negotiate with seven players before free agency begins. But he said those talks depend on what he has to spend and he doesn’t know that answer.
I think most fans are terrified that the payroll will be on the level of something you’d see from the Pirates or Marlins, and while that level of cost-cutting seems unlikely, their concerns are more than justified. Let’s take a look at what might really happen.
According to the excellent Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Opening Day payroll the last two seasons was $100.4m (2009) and $102.0m (2010). That includes all the “dead money” from corpses like Andruw Jones, Jason Schmidt, and the like. Of course, the payroll certainly changes from April 1 to the end of the season based on trades and attained incentives; according to True Blue LA, the end-of-season numbers were $110.2m (2009) and $99.7m (2010).
That’s obviously not headed in the right direction, and fears are further fueled by revelations that have come out of the divorce case, including claims that Frank McCourt is completely cash-poor and that some financial documents claimed that his long-term plan was to keep the payroll low through 2018.
However, 2010 was a complete disaster, both on the field and off. If Frank plans on keeping the team, the only way to even contemplate rebuilding his image is to put out a winner, and decreasing the payroll while risking another losing season isn’t the way to do that. Similarly, if the outcome of the case is a sale of the team, a losing team would hardly have the market value that a winning team would.
We’ve also heard snippets from writers who think that there may be money to spend. ESPN’s Buster Olney mentioned that…
I’ve heard that the Dodgers should have more payroll flexibility than last winter, when they were completely locked down.
ESPN LA’s Tony Jackson said something similar, saying…
It is going to take more than the money owner Frank McCourt put into this year’s payroll to turn this thing around. There are strong indications McCourt will increase that figure, although it isn’t clear by how much.
Of course, we’re dealing in complete unknowns here. Personally, I think a total teardown to a level below $80m, which I know many are worried about, is almost certainly not going to happen. But if you can’t get above $100m and spend some real money, is it worth it to try to build a team that may only be slightly better in 2011?
Let’s hear your thoughts. (Note: I’m including the $17m or so in 2011 “dead money” here.)
The Coaching Turnover Begins
October 4, 2010 at 5:14 pm | Posted in Bob Schaefer, Larry Bowa, Mariano Duncan | 28 CommentsIt only took about 10 minutes after Sunday’s season finale for the news to break that bench coach Bob Schaefer wouldn’t return in 2011. If anything, I’m surprised it took even that long, after the inflammatory comments he’d made in September.
All of the other coaches were thought to have a decent chance of returning, but Ken Rosenthal has just informed us that this isn’t quite the case:
Bowa, Duncan won’t return as #Dodgers‘ coaches, but asked to stay in org. Schaefer has said he won’t be back. Honeycutt future unclear.
I have no love lost for Bowa, and I’d had enough of his complaining, so I’m fine with his departure. I liked Mariano Duncan well enough… but that’s basically my only opinion of him, good or bad. I’m kind of indifferent to him either way, I suppose.
And then there’s Rick Honeycutt, who seems to get a never-ending stream of crap from fans. I understand why some don’t like him, but it’s hard to argue with the results of a pitching staff which has been very good for two years in a row, despite often being patched together with spit and duct tape.
Who do you want to see on the coaching staff? The general feeling is that Tim Wallach would be asked to become the hitting coach if he doesn’t manage to pick up a managerial job elsewhere this winter. Otherwise, you’ve now got at least three – and possibly four – holes to fill, at 1B, 3B, bench coach, and maybe pitching coach. It’s common knowledge that the bench coach will be someone with managerial experience. My money’s on ex-Mets manager Willie Randolph, Mattingly’s former teammate and coaching colleague in New York. That’s assuming he doesn’t get the managerial job in Milwaukee, where he was the bench coach this season.
80-82
October 3, 2010 at 7:57 pm | Posted in Matt Kemp | 26 Comments
Well, that’s it. With a Konrad Schmidt (who?) groundout to James Loney, a most disappointing 2010 season finally – mercifully – comes to an end. It’s bittersweet to think that for the first time since 2007, the playoffs will be going on without the Dodgers, but I think most of us are just happy to see this train wreck finally get wrapped up. The exception to that may be Matt Kemp, who just hours after I posted about him homered yet again, ending the season with a five-game dinger streak.
While the season was an unmitigated disaster for the Dodgers, it’s been a pretty successful one here at MSTI HQ. Hundreds of thousands of page views, thousands of comments (most containing great points or insightful views), and a fantasy column at Baseball Prospectus later, 2010 was more than fruitful. Massive thanks must go to you, of course, for reading, commenting, and Twitter-following. It wouldn’t be as much fun without all of you, that’s for sure.
As for what’s next, it’s going to be odd to have all this October time to kill for the first time in three years, but we’ll manage. Sometime this week, I’ll be presenting my massive 2011 plan, and then just like last year we’ll do position-by-position reviews, hopefully finishing up just in time for the Hot Stove to truly kick off in November. Not that anything around this team is ever boring (except the offense), but between the divorce case and disappointing roster, this winter figures to be particularly interesting, and I can’t wait to get to it. I hope you’ll stick around and keep me honest.
Cheers.
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